The S&P cash index closed over its 200 DMA yesterday and that's over the neckline of a tilted inverse H&S bottom pattern that measures to the all time high of about 1575. If a second close over that line occurs today, the pattern is confirmed.
The Russell is still weak, but the Dow & Nazz shows bullish patterns, too.
The chips showed some power yesterday - I don't own any as I don't like them long term, BUT if you are a trader, those might get beefer backing as they move to the new waterhole. The SOX shows a higher high and a higher low.
I plan to buy some more CSCO today to round out my position. This is a long term hold for me, not a trade. I like Internet related tech for the long term.
Be patient. Buy dips in good stocks.
PS: It's so obvious all Congress is interested in doing are creating the earmarks payoffs for their bribe payors. Despicable.
Bunkerman...feeling any stress going into the next few days? your thesis is about to be tested, feels like finals week.
ReplyDeletegunman kills 8 in omaha...........terrible
ReplyDeletewonder how many more need to die
2nd amendment....gimme a break!!!
I'm fine - I think my scenario will play out as forecast. Hehehe:
ReplyDeleteThe Emperor – Return of the Jedi
“Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.”
No recession, disinflation, low interest rates, moderate growth.
ReplyDeleteThe Paulson plan is a bonus.
indeed Bud, he would have no options to deal death without access to a gun...he would never have resorted to a fertilizer bomb in a rented truck or walked into a MCD, herded the crew into the bathroom and gutting them one by one while the others watched...no without guns, this would have never happened, that is certain.
ReplyDeleteTypical proto-fascist attitude: use a tragedy to take freedom away from 300 million honest citizens.
ReplyDeleteI remember a massacre on the Staten Island ferry - guy killed seven with a samurai sword, I thin, until man with gun stopped him.
Sigh ... some never learn.
seems like big ben gonna slash rates by 50bps....anyone interesting in fishing some real estate type plays, or is that just plain silly?
ReplyDeleteproto-fascist............what the heck is that?
ReplyDeleteyou really sicken me frosty
Bud, I must be doing something right :)
ReplyDeleteI own a LOT of REITs long term. Haven't really thought about a trade, but I'd say that lower rates & moderate growth & disinflation is very bullish for real estate.
ReplyDeleteIn the 1980s similar envoronment real estate did very well .. but there were other factors, too.
The meaning of "proto" [adjective]in this usage is something like "the precuror type, or a 'budding' version" hehehehe ;-) Not yet a developed example, but showing sign of developing into one.
ReplyDeleteoops, I meant "precursor"
ReplyDeleteI see you have been reading your Swensen handbook, bunkerman....
ReplyDeletelol, it's almost on automatic. I know I allocated some money to REITS recently - just a formula.
ReplyDeleteKrypto pushes the button & I execute the trades - cheap money management - I pay her dog biscuits.
Bud, W and paulson plan to help the common man impressive yes? they understand that free markets work, but always over heat before a top is reached...they have respect for those who believed in the american dream... no bail out of liars and cheaters...hat's off to W's crack emonomic team.
ReplyDeleteI hate you....talk about weak...you need work on your material.
agree frosty - this Pauson plan makes a lot of sense. I suppose shorts will gripe, but tough.
ReplyDeleteI like the FHA part, too. I think FHA should be expanded a lot to help ... the common man.
ReplyDeleteI have a song from the 1940s about FHA loans and how they helped people keep homes in the Depression.
ReplyDeleteThat period had those stupid ballon loans, too. That horrible experience led to the fully amortizing loan.
MLF59...call buying in the homies is huge today...likely a function of beefers hedging short common positions, that type support can vannish as quickly as it arrived, be careful, though it adds addtional fuel should they start bringing the common in...if I were to take a shot, TOL looks best to me.
ReplyDeleteWhy do pundits think that a single plan has to fix all aspects of a problem ? Reality is that a number of partial fixes can work.
ReplyDeleteI have a hard time understanding why anyone not a bear & short would dislike this Paulson plan?
ReplyDeleteLibertarians can really sound stupid on times like this.
ReplyDelete"Let no common man be crucified on a cross of loans" ;-)
Erin does a really good job covering these complex issues. Lolol but lots of her viewers are shorts !
ReplyDeleteBunkerman...what are your parameters on that CFC trade?
ReplyDeleteI think they get taken over next spring at 18. So I'll hang on for awhile unless it gets to 15 or so soon. If so, I flip it, but re-buy on a serious dip.
ReplyDeleteI just have a rough plan in mind.
ReplyDeleteTOL running like a chicom solar play...should be good to 25.
ReplyDeleteshorts & bears are getting a solid 1-2-3 punchout: economy numbers, Paulson plan, Fed.
ReplyDelete1-2-3 = left jab, strong right, left hook.
teetering ... looks like a standing eight coming.
WB insiders buyers at 38 look pretty smart.
ReplyDeleteI generally consider both time and price in trades [ST] and investments [LT]. I will take smller profits if they come faster.
ReplyDeleteExample: a stock I like for LT goes up 100% - it's sayonnara after 367 days unless I really love it like AAPL. But if it's up 30% after 367 days, I reevaluate it to think if it can give me another 30% in anouther 367 days.
Bunkerman..now if we get strong emp data friday will that spook the tape?...if there is a wild card that trumps W's crack team, it is ben the rookie...can he control the poole's of the gourp?...if this were a football gane and it was forth and goal from the one, I wouldn't give it to ben, being the most likely to fumble.
ReplyDeleteS&P cash is jsut over the 50 DMA now. Two closes over that level break through a huge resistance belt from 1480 to 1502 or so.
ReplyDeleteAlso today confirms the inverse H&S bottom patern.
I'd like to see the jobs number at less than 100K but over 50K.
ReplyDeleteYes, Ben is a rookie. They might give up 50 on the discount rate & just 25 on the overnight rate. That would be niggardly and show he's not in control - the poole fools and other inflation hawks fighting the battle of 1980 over again.
But the Fed is political and with all the political pressure - Hillary, too - on helping the homeowner, I think we get 50 in the overngiht. I'd like to see 100 in the discount rate to make them both 4%.
The Fed will not want Barney questioning them in February H&H testimony about complacence & foreclosures they could have stopped.
Bunkerman...you are half way home so I won't jix you with any premature high fives...but I do have my fingers crossed :)
ReplyDelete