Thursday, September 11, 2008

Is There Anything Knew Under the Sun (cont.) ?

I guess if one is over 50 and has paid attention all one's life, a person can be jaded as almost everything in world events seems to be a repeat of past performance. Here are three items that brought that thought to mind this morning as we suffer from poor leaders, knavery and corruption in government.

First

Today is the 7th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attack. To quote from the BBC news site: "The top US commander calls for a new strategy to fight Taleban militants in their safe havens inside Pakistan". Uh ... did not W say that the terrorists would not be safe anywhere and that nations offering sanctuaries would be considered enemies ? So why hasn't W ordered attacks on these "safe havens" " After all this is seven years later. Is W lying or stupid - the old "fool or knave" choice ? Obviously he should attack them. Let Pakistan scream. They are doing nothing to crush the terrorists. Maybe they'll send troops there to root out that band of killers. Of course permitting "safe havens" was part of the Johnson-McNamara's losing strategy in Vietnam. And the team of Bush-Rumfeld repeated it. Seven years is a long time. Clearly a real leader like Honest John McCain would not repeat old errors.

Second

Obama screeches after being called out on sexist comments about Palin. I refer to the "lipstick on a pig" quote. He says his remark was an innocent expression. Uh ... this is a Harvard Law School graduate who was on the Law Review. He knew what he was saying and to what it alluded. Now he's whining. What a knave !

Third

"Federal investigators alleged that Interior Department officials handling oil royalties broke government rules by accepting gifts from and having sex with industry representatives." Hmmm "having sex with industry representatives. That should be an interesting case. But what's the surprise - corruption in government contracts is an old story. This is one reason why governmental economic power is to be feared. The other is government's insidious growth in its power over the people.

Markets

Gold has fallen more and silver is under $11. I'll be a buyer as Mrs. B deploys her new funds in the Sky Fund, as I'll make asset class balancing investments to keep the entire Krypto Fund in balance (Sky Fund is part of Krypto Fund for asset management purposes).

Good News

I suppose I could call this section the "Gospel of Bunkerman", but that might seem blasphemous. But I think since business news seems unable to mentions anything but fear and gloom, I will occasionally mention good news.

Today's WSJ article on how exports are helping hundreds of small communities in the US provides many examples on the good that the US improving balance of trade is doing. For decades the US dollar was overvalued and the common man working in a manufacturing plant suffered loss of income and jobs. Now that is changing. This is good. The dollar finally reached a fair value range.

On a related matter, for decades pundits will have screamed about the trade deficit. Although today's trade numbers might show a pause of slight reversal, the trade deficit has been closing for months. And once the fall in the price of imported oil flows into the numbers, the trade balance will be even smaller. This is good news.

And why is Bunkerman an optimist ? The pundits say the sky is falling. Babblevision had a fellow on TV early this morning saying a depression was coming. What crap ! (I've been hearing that crap for thirty years -but I guess it sells.) With the growth of freedom in the world, the 21st century should be a time of peace and prosperity as long as Russia or some other rogue nation doesn't caused trouble. Human beings naturally strive to improve their lives. Given freedom, they will do that. That basic human action provides a powerful current of growth for the world economies. The bears are swimming against this current. Soon they will tire and drown. And the Bulls will take charge and a new bull market will emerge.

Word of the Day

"Peruna" - noun [$ incalculable]; a Mencken word.
Peruna means 1. an idea or policy designed to, or which will fool or pacify the masses; 2. (Finnish) potato. 3. (capitalized) the name of a famous elixir in Texas that had a reputation for a cure-all. (The popularity of Peruna soared during Prohibition due to its alcohol content.)
This word is not in any English language dictionary. I discovered its likely meaning through online research into prior uses. Hence, like "quodliteral" this definition is first provided on this "incalculably" valuable site [joke].
Sentences -
A. [from "The Impossible H. L. Mencken" ed. by Marion Rogers, page 83. The quote is excerpted from an article that pondered why Americans did not fall for communism in the 1920s and 1930.] "... the plain people had been vaccinated against it. For years they had been following such quacksalvers as Bryan and Roosevelt, and so they had acquired a certain amount of immunity to social and economic perunas."
B. Does Obama think his speechmaking ability and shills in the sycophantic press can sell his perunas to the public ? This is the 21st century. If the public in the Mencken era didn't buy communism, I doubt they will buy Obama's perunas of high taxes and big government as the cure-all of their problems.

88 comments:

  1. How timely: "Lehman Brothers cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs"

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  2. I wonder if AIG has a substantial net exposure to credit default swaps ?

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  3. AIG and MER are in very big trouble


    and GS got lowered again

    rich man's panic part 3.......or is it part 4

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  4. I think part 4 now ... last August, January, March, July and no.

    I really don't like the investment banks at all. Most of new growth business since the mid 1990s is trading crap.

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  5. Agree re MER and AIG. GS is worth only book, if that.

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  6. Hmm ... odd event for a global slowdown: "CSX Corp Increases 2008 and Long-Term Financial Guidance "

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  7. I can understand a firm "trading" in credit default swaps to make a market for a profit - like making a market in stocks or bonds.

    But having any serious size of "net" exposure would be incredibly stupid.

    So I don't understand who would write those naked from a natural business perspective.

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  8. it appears the guilty parties are Harvard alums, bunkerman...."too smart for their own good"....

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  9. 9/11 UGH!

    Phillies UGH

    bman can u answer a question from yesterday?

    about 90 days ago when FDX had bad #'s and bad guidance, u suggested it had nothing to with the economy. that FDX wasnt a gud sign for the macro becuase of email, and its model was antiquated.

    yesterday they had gud #'s and u suggested that was a sign the macro was better than people expected.

    what changed at FDX, in the last 90 days, that makes them more relevant to the macro (other than now it helps with your thesis that this is a mid cycle slowdown)

    your typical mid cycle slowdown, where the 2 largest mortgage insurers went BK, plus the 4 and 5th largest investment banks.

    im buying some silver today from kitco, and adding to my stash.


    http://www.walnet.org/rosebud/dopedeal.html

    ROFLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

    an oldie and a gudie!!!!!!

    "10 seconds, BOB!"

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  10. Meagan McCain came to our town yesterday for a book signing....she wrote a childrens book about Big John...my son got his picture taken with her that made the front page of the local newspaper.....of course he had his blue and gold Navy hat on as well...

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  11. true mfl, some are. But being a graduate of Harvard and its graduate school, I know a lot about their limitations and excessive hubris.

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  12. re FDX, it's a declining businsss except the ground business. So if it's down a bit, no surprise.

    Now being up is a surprise - I doubt if Email usage went down - if anything, it would be up.

    So obviously something good happened.

    Before, it's just a matter of how down, as it should be expected to have been down from email encroashment.

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  13. LEH down 50% since my rec.

    id take half off here bud.

    not bad for a day.

    that one was free, next one is 6 grand.

    bman, u dodging the FDX question?

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  14. in other words - the deviation from expected trend matters.

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  15. not dodging, was running on my elliptical machine till now.

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  16. the question is y were there #'s not important 90 days ago, but relevant yesterday............

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  17. uh mern, check back to the mid cycle slowdown of the mid 1980s.

    investment banks cratered, big banks cratered, etc.

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  18. I guess being over 50 does give one a lot more perspective on events.

    ;-)

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  19. ... and paying attention sicne age 20.

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  20. the numbers 90 days ago were just more of the trend down.

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  21. more haha's:

    "Lehman Brothers downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank "

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  22. when I said Fedex was not important 90 days ago, I think I said that I would expect them to be down from email encroachment anyway.

    So no big deal.

    Up is counter trend move and more important.

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  23. I decided to do my bulk buying of gold & silver in a retirement brokerage account. I have enough for survival and that effort in selling a lot of physical gold /silver was annoying.

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  24. we need the SEC to get off its butt and issue those naked short sale rules.

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  25. Bunky don't you have some where to be today...atta girl Mrs B, keep some power dry, use that skim in a wise manner, no buck fever for you I see, well done.

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  26. i remember the 80's quite well, and i followed the markets in hs and college.

    in the 80's communism was dying and helped more than most know.

    this decade the secular trend is 1.5 billion joining the middle class. america is pumping out retard after retard, a lot not even graduating college.

    and when the 1st gets revised to negative, stagger lee dies, and the recession began a yr ago.

    funny how it takes the BEA a yr to admit it.

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  27. Duke University says former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's son was properly dismissed from the golf team and was never promised a spot on the squad.

    Andrew Giuliani sued Duke in July, claiming he was improperly cut from the team earlier this year and that the coach violated a contract he entered when he agreed to come to the university and pay $200,000 in tuition and fees.

    But Duke said in a court filing Wednesday that the 22-year-old Giuliani was properly suspended after throwing an apple in the face of another player, breaking a golf club during a tournament, injuring a teammate and becoming verbally abusive with a coach.

    Giuliani's lawsuit says allegations were fabricated as coach O.D. Vincent III tried to shrink the size of the team.

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  28. "america is pumping out retard after retard"

    lmaooooooooooo

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  29. "But Duke said in a court filing Wednesday that the 22-year-old Giuliani was properly suspended after throwing an apple in the face of another player, breaking a golf club during a tournament, injuring a teammate and becoming verbally abusive with a coach."

    on the glass half full side...at least he's eating right....lol

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  30. MER...fine call Bud...well done.

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  31. btw, I have errands to do soon. Probably won't be back until later PM, if at all.

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  32. Give This Bear Market a Hug
    8:50 AM EDT
    Accepting the fact that trading in a bear market is more difficult than in a bull

    Thanks jim...sitting tight in cash, LEH pays 50% a day, who needs that hassel...checks in the mail...prowler need a wash.

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  33. Bud...grap a sack of rocks (nono Spin, stones)...you bunk and I mount up gold mist and hit the nysc...time to go karschi style on this market...I will bring the Kashmiri Chai.

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  34. 'karachi style'


    LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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  35. Bamn do you think Ben shud cut rates today??

    rumors swirling

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  36. disclosure: I played with Andrew Guiliani 4 years ago in a Met Amateur qualifier......scores were as follows:

    Guiliani 68
    mfl 77

    he hit it about 40 yards past me off the tee every time...lmaoooooo

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  37. either the nyazzhole cheats or MLF59 played pre claw.

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  38. he was kind of a jerk....his caddy was a real clown as well....

    "you carrying your own bag?"

    "yup"

    "pfffttt"

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  39. wow mfl plays real golf...really could have used that this year.....

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  40. Jim...is this the misdirection day...I dare you Bud.

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  41. mab would be proud.....heckled out of the tank by "Jim"

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  42. well played Bunkerman...well played sir....played to perfection

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  43. uhh spin...time to start building for the 2009 season....when are tryouts?

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  44. omfg Jersey backhand(with rings)

    I cant even stand up.......

    LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO..

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  45. are my shoes on?

    where the f are my glasses

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  46. nononononono backhand....nononononono

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  47. making index cards quick like a bunny...MLF59 MVP MVP MVP....bunk, double load WM time...LMAOOOOOOO

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  48. Bud the beers are getting cool....the meats are marinating....the red is being ironed....kickoff 7 hours away....

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  49. Bunky...your not having a dog show with an eye on the tape are you...that sir, is bad karma...may I suggest a six shot appletini.

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  50. are you f'ng kidding me??

    rutgers football???

    i ignored you yday.....but i guess you have no shame

    after that embarassing performance last week......i'd be hiding

    frosty's hop-skotch team hits harder than the scarlett knights

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  51. meanwhile

    road to the big12 north championship goes thru ames


    "kansas city......kansas city here i come......


    come on Bman.....sing it with me......i know you heard that tune

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  52. Damon also suggested McCain's selection of Palin wasn't based on her political qualifications.

    "I know she was the mayor of a really small town. She's the Governor of Alaska for less than two years. I just don't understand it. I think the pick was made for political purposes, but in terms of governance, it's a disaster," he added. "I need to know if she really thinks that dinosaurs were really here 4,000 years ago. I want to know that. Because she's going to have the nuclear codes. I want to know that and I want to know if she tried to ban books. We can't have that."

    matt damon is spot on!

    if u think the earth is about 15,000 years old........................... and u answer the phone at 3am........................ OMG, pass the dark meat!

    this chix makes cheney look good. she makes bush seem like not such a bad idea.

    once this divorce is over, costa rica or jamaica, look better by the day, and i know ive been saying that since 2000.

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  53. Matt Damon....LMAO...who gives a rats azz

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  54. If Chevy Chase likes her...thats good enough for me...looool

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  55. See, the sad thing about a guy like you is in 50 years you're gonna staht doin some thinkin on your own and you're gonna come up with the fact that there are two certaintees in life. One, don't do that. And Two, you dropped a hundred and fifty grand on a fu*&in education you coulda got for a dollah fifty in late chahges at the public library

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  56. Betty White..2 thumbs up... waaaay up for Palin...loool

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  57. it's ok for mern and matt damon to be talkin about Sarah

    but the porch monkey??? he can't f'ng stop talkin about her


    she has really f'd up the democrats



    go Sarah go !!!!!!!!!

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  58. Iowa State's win against South Dakota State was one of the best games these eyes ever saw...lmaoooooooooo

    wake up sir.....

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  59. AAPL trades like it has a piano on its back....

    beefers indeed....

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  60. rutgers v fresno was the best games these eyes ever saw


    wake up sir

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  61. dammit

    i can't f'ng believe i'm even gettin into a debate about........rutgers football??

    rutgers football??? really....rutgers football?? who the f'k even cares




    sheeeesh

    what is wrong with me???


    maybe my turban is on too tight

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  62. "The most beautiful place these eyes ever seen"...Rudy's dad

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  63. "maybe my turban is on too tight"

    LMAOOOOOOOO

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  64. prediction for Jopa??????


    Painnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

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  65. "jim" would be proud.....well played...rutgers football is beneath guys like you....

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  66. Bud...where is that ops expo misdirection update...Jim two thumbs up...should we buy some sds 69.25.

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  67. rutgers vs fresno ? Is that a high school game ?

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  68. easy Hoss....MLF59 having an MVP week...f the rings, brass knucks coming.

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  69. matt damon as the intellectual giant ?

    roflmaooooooooooooooooooooooo

    Might as well get Butthead's opinion.

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  70. uhhhh....didnt Matt Damon go to Harvard Bunkerman? I know he didnt go to Dayton....

    lmaoooooooooo

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  71. oh jeez he did - didn't graduate, though.

    Uhhhhhhhh

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  72. BAC buys Countrywide...now they want LEH? sheesh....they gonna become the next Citigroup...a bloated conglomerate that is useless....

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  73. "we had real buying into the close" bloomberg...

    there ya go Bunkerman....

    off to the house that Ray Rice built

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  74. uhhhh....didnt Matt Damon go to Harvard Bunkerman? I know he didnt go to Dayton....


    ROFLLLLLL

    room quite funny today!

    bman u r whistling past the grave yard, again.

    bottomline, do u want a creationist as your president?

    if u believe the earth is like 15,000 years old, doesnt that make u....... um RETARDED?

    big mac has 1 foot in the grave and 1 on a bannana peel.

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  75. GO BANANAS!!!

    B A N A N A S

    GO BANANAS!!!

    B A N A N A S

    GETHEFOOCKOUTTAMYHOUUUUUSE!!!!!!!!

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  76. This just in......Liz wont be out next week

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  77. mern did you goto Hillsborough County?..that new jail show is from there...lol

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  78. HUGE series with Brewers....put up or hasta la vista

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  79. Hank buys himself another weekend

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  80. GETHEFOOCKOUTTAMYHOUUUUUSE!!!!!!!LMAOOOOO...Mern...and just when the azzlicken was going so well... it's the no bullets in the gun bullshit that really bothers me...BE PREPARED TO USE IT NEXT TIME or leave it in your pants son!!!!!!

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  81. the cops told me it wasnt loaded, i thought it was.

    ROFLLLLLLLLLLLL

    phils r toast

    its the iggles yr!

    i was in pasco county jail.

    i got to put on an orange suit and sleep for like 8 hours. and no i was not analy raped.

    but thanks for asking!

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  82. Cindys boys...."Hey retard..the safety's on"..loooooool





    thought Id use your word..lol

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