Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Expand Your Horizons

This applies to literature, culture, history, languages and ... investing. Today's FT makes a point rather simply - US-centric pundits and investors pay attention.

***Beginning of Quote***
Emerging stock markets have reached levels last seen before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the latest sign of investor expectations of improving global growth. The FTSE All-World Emerging Index on Monday reached 433.2 in late London trade – the highest since the week before Lehman’s demise sent markets into a tailspin.

Then, the index dropped almost 48 per cent in a little over five weeks but, from an October 27 low, has now rallied 90.1 per cent. Strategists said the rally was because of a returning belief in "decoupling" – the theory by which emerging markets will in future be less dependent on the fortunes of developed markets because they will be able to rely on stronger domestic demand.
Michael Wang, emerging markets strategist at Morgan Stanley, said: “Previously, emerging markets were seen as a geared play on developed markets because of their dependence on exports. But this is different.

Asia and Latin America haven’t had the fundamental problems in the banking sector that the developed world has had, so lending and credit growth has resumed rapidly and this is helping drive growth.”

...

Manufacturing output, a particular concern for the emerging world, reached an 18-month high and new orders hit a 20-month peak."
***End of Quote***

A couple years ago I wrote sardonically about the emerging new "East Asia Co-Prosperity Zone" - a zone of self-supporting consumer driven demand in China, India, and the rest of East Asia. It's really larger than this, including all South America, too. When looking for the recovery and where future growth will be, I think it will be there.

In the money-mouth department, Krypto Fund has a quite oversized position in emerging market stocks at 6.67% allocation.

Actions

I took some profits on extra pieces of FCX and HBC yesterday. The FCX was the bit added around 55. I got a little over 64 for it, thus making up the 10 points lost on the other half when I made the Obama dump in early July. I also sold about 1/3 of HBC in Fido Fund - that position had gotten too large. HBC reported surprisingly strong earnings and I took advantage of the rip. My average gain was 75% on that stock.

Word of the Day

"Espantoon" - noun [$???] a Mencken word not in any dictionaries
Espantoon was the term used in Baltimore in early 1900s for a policeman's stick - a nightstick with a long leather strap for twirling. The word perhaps derives from Spanish, "espanto", a noun for fright or threat.
Sentence: Timmy yesterday used the verbal espantoon to try to get the financial regulatory heads to back financial reform and to stop their turf battles.

Multi-lingual Department

I overslept, so nothing today here.

39 comments:

  1. what are you sayin Bman ??


    it's different this time ?

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  2. 'decoupling' is a great theory for classrooms

    but the consumers in india and china will not pay 300bux for the callaway diablo driver i bought...........they just don't have the dollars..........wages are miniscule compared to the US

    it prolly cost callaway 20bux to make it in china and the most they can get in india may be 25bux


    oh wait............they make it up on volume

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  3. Decoupling is not perfect now but it's a strong trend and the "coupling" is getting weaker and weaker.

    The reast of Asia and South America is buying cheap tools, etc. from China and India adn thsoe places are buying stuff from sourtheast Asia, South American, etc. That trend is growing.

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  4. Since those areas are not command economies, their consumer demand is growing.

    There are lots of people there who whant better lives and to buy thing to get it.

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  5. I'm saying that in the next bull market, I think this trend will continue to increase.

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  6. 10 points on FCX......75% on HBC...........great job Bman..........love to hear stories of traders doin well


    of course lowlife dirtbag scumbag frosty doesn't......he loves to make fun of others losing trades ( ace too )......and remind them over and over and over........apparently he only has winning trades..........f'ng douchebag



    PS......still wanna be friends ???

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  7. go fkk your hand son....the only people i mock for losing money are the true low life scumbags that you seem to idolize....the leaches and thieves in "la acquairum"

    they bitch about GS frontrunning and flash orders...what your hero does is the same thing...he is a disgrace...

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  8. ouch.....mfl with an early arm bar

    LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MVP

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  9. WNC


    nailed it !!! high five !!!


    holy smokes !! are you f'ng kiddin me ???? 1.27 to 2 in a day !!!!!!!


    looks like i'll be able to afford an extra topping on my pizza for lunch........may even get a soda......i got the cash today



    danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!

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  10. Bunkerman that was a fine call on the move in reits sir...or should I give kudos to Krypto?

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  11. give Krypto the dog biscuit .. good doggie.

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  12. "extra topping on my pizza for lunch."...what do you add to a perfect Ojree — Pakistani curry goat tripe pizzzzzaaaa....why mess with perfection.

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  13. well they gonna ban flash trading


    congratulations Bman ............you well on your way to making our markets illiquid and inefficient

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  14. Bman are you also against the GLD and SLV ??


    or does the common man have to buy gold bars if he wants to own gold...........and dig them in his back yard .........what if he doesn't have a back yard ?

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  15. Bman is futures trading an asset class ??

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  16. what a jerk...is this that the other an assest class...over and over again...taunting bunky with such bs...what a sick lil subhuman, you disgust me.

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  17. sheesh, Bud ... I've said many times that GLD and SLV are about the only type of commodity ETF that is proper.

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  18. futures trading is NOT an asset class - futures are NOT an asset. Ditto derivatives, etc.

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  19. btw, "dark pools" should also be banned.

    Hell, I think they should force every single order through the same system so every order is exposed equally to all.

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  20. providing ways for the Street & beefers to extract more vig is not a priority for me.

    If it helps the common man - yes.

    Otherwise, no nein nyet non nie in any language.

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  21. Bunkerman is the sharkfolio an asset class?

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  22. lolol, as before, it's not; but it's run by an ass.

    :)))

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  23. haha, good puff ball, mfl ... down the middle... and over the center field wall.

    such an easy target.

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  24. indeed Bunkerman...that was a batting practice ball....go fetch it Bud

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  25. Bunky when do you and fat al hit the boundary waters to fight pike.

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  26. We hit the waters in Algonquin National Park in Canada on August 23.

    I leave here on Aug. 22 to meet the group in Buffalo, then next day to hit the park.

    My pemmican was superb - surely it will win the prize.

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  27. Bman is UTA an asset class ???


    i think so.........stock of the week............what a monster

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  28. ummm UTA............chinese travel agency

    part of your decoupling thesis Bman..........chinese middle class has some cash now.........they wanna travel

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  29. I googled UTA.

    Univ of Texas at Arlingtin
    Utah Transit Authoritu
    United Talent Agency
    UNION TANK (UTA) der Tank- und Servicekartenspezialist bietet wertvolle Informationen zu seinen Serviceleistungen und der neuen LKW-Maut

    Uta, daughter of Theodo, ruler of Bavaria in the 8th century. ... Uta, Margravess of Meissen, a mediaeval aristocrat, patron of the ...

    ???

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  30. true, could be a good stock. Maybe a 100 bagger for long term ... if you could hold it a couple years

    LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

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  31. uhhh Bman.............i don't need the stock to move 100 points for me to make 100 points in it........a well defined range is all i need


    remember......i am just a ping pong player

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  32. UTA

    what a monster close..............stock of the week ?? no..........stock of the century



    DANKE VIELMALS JIM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  33. anyone know where I can borrow a few french ticklers for vacation.

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  34. hmmm I wonder how one says that in French ... maybe for tomorrow.

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