In my recent post, The Job Solution, some of the panoply of policies to increase demand for people were a few to increase equity in pay. Currently a cabal / clique / camarilla of the CEO club and their friends on Board Compensation committees control executive level pay and, of course, those hogs slurp down most of the food in the trough for themselves, elbowing out the common man and woman.
Today I highlight practical polices to shift more PAY towards the common man and woman. Some are repeats that I add a bit of detail to make their operation clear. Our goal: increase demand in the economy for people. We do this by obvious means: reduce the cost of hiring people, increase the cost of hogs, and make high level pay open and more under the control of shareholders.
I. No tax deductions for ANY compensation amounts over the US President's salary. Companies can pay the hogs, but no tax benefits. Effect: hiring a new person for $100,000 is cheaper than laying off people to replace with machines and increasing pay of the boss.
II. Any corporate pay (executive or otherwise) contacts providing for pay over $1 million must be approved in advance by the shareholders in a mandatory, binding vote by secret ballot. This will limit the number of votes and highlight the pay of the hogs.
III. For any negative vote, the Compensation Committee is fired and replaced by all new people, required to be shareholders of at least 1,000 shares and who must certify they have NO relations with the CEO and other Board members.
IV. All corporate pay over the US President's salary has clawback provisions, making THEM bears the costs of all those "non-recurring losses" they now like to put onto shareholders and lower level employee pay. Nowadays, they keep the pay and layoff people to "restructure" the company, in effect rewarding themselves for their mistakes. Stop this invidious practice.
All these policies maintain corporate freedom to reward performance, but shine the light of day onto that pay and make its determination truly independent and under control of the shareholders. Let's do this now.
Word of the Day
"Mistery" - noun [$1000] T. S. Eliot usage (among others); from usage of "Mister" obsolete, archaic and dialect.
Mistery means a general reference to 1. occupation, service, etc.; 2. office, duty, business, function; 3. employment, occupation, practice; 4. skill or cunning in a profession; 5. other similar definitions.
Sentence: We need more miserly pay for mistery in the executive suite.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Back in the Saddle
I survived The Beast aka Manhattan, NYC. To this causal observer, business in the Beast must be good. The Grill Room at the Harvard Club was full at lunch, and the Tap Room at the Athletic Club was full for dinner even though the minimum period was over. People were spending money.
Men's fashions are a bit dour, still. A few colorful ties were spotted, but most men wore boring, drab neckwear. Few wore pinstriped suits either. Again, sadly, your writer was the best dressed man in the room. As usual, beautiful women admired my ties. When are the men of NYC going to start dressing a bit better?
Actions
Krypto wants me to buy some emerging market stocks. It's a decent signal, and on these down moves I hit the first signal and then wait. Down moves can be vicious; swinging at ever pitch can be painful. But the first one gets a swing and I will obey, likely via ETFs at the open.
There's a weak sell signal for gold+silver, too. I'll wait for a strong signal there.
Word of the Day
"Abduction" - noun [$100] Logic
Abduction means a syllogism whose major premise is certain but whose minor premise is probably.
Sentence: Much reasoning in life (investing, detective work, historical analysis, policy analysis) is neither deduction nor induction, but is abduction, where one starts with facts and creates a probable scenario / narrative that fits the facts to use in actions. Sherlock Holmes used abduction.
Men's fashions are a bit dour, still. A few colorful ties were spotted, but most men wore boring, drab neckwear. Few wore pinstriped suits either. Again, sadly, your writer was the best dressed man in the room. As usual, beautiful women admired my ties. When are the men of NYC going to start dressing a bit better?
Actions
Krypto wants me to buy some emerging market stocks. It's a decent signal, and on these down moves I hit the first signal and then wait. Down moves can be vicious; swinging at ever pitch can be painful. But the first one gets a swing and I will obey, likely via ETFs at the open.
There's a weak sell signal for gold+silver, too. I'll wait for a strong signal there.
Word of the Day
"Abduction" - noun [$100] Logic
Abduction means a syllogism whose major premise is certain but whose minor premise is probably.
Sentence: Much reasoning in life (investing, detective work, historical analysis, policy analysis) is neither deduction nor induction, but is abduction, where one starts with facts and creates a probable scenario / narrative that fits the facts to use in actions. Sherlock Holmes used abduction.
Monday, February 7, 2011
The New American System
"Things fall apart, the center cannot hold."
That quotation is from W. B. Yeats's poem, "The Second Coming". Modern American society is tending that direction, which would likely be a disaster for the nation. Society is bifurcating and has been for about 40 years. Recent posts here have documented the shifts in economic growth from the middle class to top; the middle class has obtained almost nothing from 40 years of "growth". The Great Recession has increased the bleeding, causing huge job and savings losses for people who have little hope of recovery, viz. the baby boomers approaching retirement. The billionaires, executive classes, their bureaucratic allies and entertainment figures have taken it all. While all that was happening, government grew enormously. It's part of the problem.
We need a New American System: a simpler, fairer system with more freedom and less government for the common man and woman.
Recent posts have outlined a new tax system, a health care system, a energy solution, a transportation solution, a debt solution, a jobs solution. This post focuses on government which connects to the other solutions..
The Federal government needs to be massively streamlined to focus on what's important to the people. Keep and expand what's important and get rid of the rest.
What is important? The five items below command huge public support.
1. Social Security as a core retirement program.
2. Health care (Medicare, medicaid AND health care for all).
3. National defense (very strong without bloat and corruption).
4. Social Safety Net: no one goes to destitution for bad luck or bad genes.
5. Debt for productive investments only.
Get rid of the rest of the Federal government, except simple information gathering programs for public distribution. We need to understand the nation and its parts and trends. Get rid of all the regulations and bureaucracy. Free people and business to create new growth in areas people want, not what is selected or dictated by the hogs at the trough.
I. Increase Social Security about 50% to provide about 1/2 of a reasonable retirement. This will be part of the Social Safety Net and support the happiness of the American people as they need not fear destitution in old age. People must save the rest.
II. Provide the National Health Shared Benefit that I've written often about here. This system provides good basic health care, not everything. People are free to spend more if they wish, but no one dies in the streets. The link between employment and health care is broken. Services are provided by competitive bids.
III. National defense must be strong to protect the nation. Our current military is very strong - superior to all others. It has a weakness, though. Too many military support functions are contracted out. The military needs internal support systems (supply, transportation, etc.) that can be expanded for longer wars, which DO happen, witness Iraq. Contractors will run when the shelling starts. Dedicated service people will not.
IV. The Social Safety Net must be strong so that people feel free to take risks to start new businesses, etc. We don't want them inhibited by a splat into destitution. That now prevents millions from being more entrepreneurial. "Benefits" are really shackles. Food stamps should be expanded in value and available to anyone at low income (no limitation to people with children) , but limited to the simple foods. People should not have to worry about starvation, but doing a bit of work in cooking should be expected. Some kind of housing must be available, too. The current housing glut can supply it. Create homestead programs to give the poor an incentive to take over abandoned housing and fix it up. The National Health Shared Benefit provides the health care. This system is a strong safety net.
V. Borrow with long term bonds to build out the nation's energy, transportation and communication grid-networks completely with structures consistent with the long term Energy and Transportation systems I've written out. This system will provide a strong skeleton for new national growth.
The tax reform solutions I've written about will both pay for this and help provide the shift in jobs and income growth towards the middle class.
We need to move towards this New American System now. I'll do my part in publicizing these solutions. I will soon collect these core posts into an indexed place where you can find them easily. Later I intend to publish these ideas in a printed pamphlet for sending out ... everywhere.
I'll be traveling to NYC Tuesday and Wednesday; no new post until Thursday.
Word of the Day
"Phthisis" noun [$10]; "Phthisic" - adjective [$10]; a T. S. Eliot word.
Phthisis means any progressive wasting disease esp. pulmonary tuberculosis.
Sentence: American society suffers from a social and economic phthisis grinding down the middle class and dangerously bifurcating society. We need to start the cure now.
That quotation is from W. B. Yeats's poem, "The Second Coming". Modern American society is tending that direction, which would likely be a disaster for the nation. Society is bifurcating and has been for about 40 years. Recent posts here have documented the shifts in economic growth from the middle class to top; the middle class has obtained almost nothing from 40 years of "growth". The Great Recession has increased the bleeding, causing huge job and savings losses for people who have little hope of recovery, viz. the baby boomers approaching retirement. The billionaires, executive classes, their bureaucratic allies and entertainment figures have taken it all. While all that was happening, government grew enormously. It's part of the problem.
We need a New American System: a simpler, fairer system with more freedom and less government for the common man and woman.
Recent posts have outlined a new tax system, a health care system, a energy solution, a transportation solution, a debt solution, a jobs solution. This post focuses on government which connects to the other solutions..
The Federal government needs to be massively streamlined to focus on what's important to the people. Keep and expand what's important and get rid of the rest.
What is important? The five items below command huge public support.
1. Social Security as a core retirement program.
2. Health care (Medicare, medicaid AND health care for all).
3. National defense (very strong without bloat and corruption).
4. Social Safety Net: no one goes to destitution for bad luck or bad genes.
5. Debt for productive investments only.
Get rid of the rest of the Federal government, except simple information gathering programs for public distribution. We need to understand the nation and its parts and trends. Get rid of all the regulations and bureaucracy. Free people and business to create new growth in areas people want, not what is selected or dictated by the hogs at the trough.
I. Increase Social Security about 50% to provide about 1/2 of a reasonable retirement. This will be part of the Social Safety Net and support the happiness of the American people as they need not fear destitution in old age. People must save the rest.
II. Provide the National Health Shared Benefit that I've written often about here. This system provides good basic health care, not everything. People are free to spend more if they wish, but no one dies in the streets. The link between employment and health care is broken. Services are provided by competitive bids.
III. National defense must be strong to protect the nation. Our current military is very strong - superior to all others. It has a weakness, though. Too many military support functions are contracted out. The military needs internal support systems (supply, transportation, etc.) that can be expanded for longer wars, which DO happen, witness Iraq. Contractors will run when the shelling starts. Dedicated service people will not.
IV. The Social Safety Net must be strong so that people feel free to take risks to start new businesses, etc. We don't want them inhibited by a splat into destitution. That now prevents millions from being more entrepreneurial. "Benefits" are really shackles. Food stamps should be expanded in value and available to anyone at low income (no limitation to people with children) , but limited to the simple foods. People should not have to worry about starvation, but doing a bit of work in cooking should be expected. Some kind of housing must be available, too. The current housing glut can supply it. Create homestead programs to give the poor an incentive to take over abandoned housing and fix it up. The National Health Shared Benefit provides the health care. This system is a strong safety net.
V. Borrow with long term bonds to build out the nation's energy, transportation and communication grid-networks completely with structures consistent with the long term Energy and Transportation systems I've written out. This system will provide a strong skeleton for new national growth.
The tax reform solutions I've written about will both pay for this and help provide the shift in jobs and income growth towards the middle class.
We need to move towards this New American System now. I'll do my part in publicizing these solutions. I will soon collect these core posts into an indexed place where you can find them easily. Later I intend to publish these ideas in a printed pamphlet for sending out ... everywhere.
I'll be traveling to NYC Tuesday and Wednesday; no new post until Thursday.
Word of the Day
"Phthisis" noun [$10]; "Phthisic" - adjective [$10]; a T. S. Eliot word.
Phthisis means any progressive wasting disease esp. pulmonary tuberculosis.
Sentence: American society suffers from a social and economic phthisis grinding down the middle class and dangerously bifurcating society. We need to start the cure now.
Friday, February 4, 2011
The Deficit Solution
The Federal and State budget deficits are closely related to the prior three major problems, especially the Jobs problem. How many of you know that the Federal budget deficit is about 10% of GDP now (a huge increase over its "normal" level)? Putting 15% of the 20% of the workforce (3/4ths) who are unemployed and underemployed to productive work would likely solve that Federal and State deficit problem.
The Federal government wastes huge sums on agriculture subsidies, on education spending and on its payroll. Almost all federal programs could be eliminated and no one would notice.
I. Agricultural subsidies. Why do they exist? Get rid of the whole department except information gathering systems.
II. Education spending. Education was better in the 1950s and 1960s when the Federal government spent nothing on education. Keep only a student loan program.
III. Payroll. Pay and benefits of Federal employees is far too high. Those levels should be cut until the demand for such work falls.
IV. Military Retirement. Early military retirements should be limited to those serving in combat regiments - the people risking their lives. Supply another units would be eligible IF they are exposed to combat, proof being the respective combat badges. Otherwise, collection of retirement pay should begin at age 65.
V. Poverty programs should be consolidated into a simple Social Safety Net. Get rid of all those government social workers. The private sector does that better.
VI. The National Shared Health Benefit will eliminate most of the "Health" half of the Health & Human services Department. Item#V got rid of the other half.
VII. Apply the rules for military retirements in item IV to FBI and all other federal police forces.
VIII. Commerce department. You guessed it. Get rid of all of it except for the information gathering. Ditto the Labor Department.
IX. Stop defending the rest of the world. They now have the capability to defend themselves. Cut back to maintain effective alliances. Keep a smaller, but very effective military. Let Europe fight & pay for its own defense. Ditto Japan and Korea. Let all those places who want missile defense pay for its cost. Keep a strong Navy, Air Force, Army and Marine Corps, though. Keep technological superiority: spending on less than superior weapons is a waste.
X. Eliminate all foreign aid except disaster relief; its not much, but why isn't it zero?
Using debt is GOOD, though, for true investments: fair student loan programs; investment in superior military equipment; investments in parks and historic sites pay off with tourist dollars; investments needed for the Energy and Transportation Solutions. All those are necessary investments for our long term prosperity. DEBT IS GOOD if used for productive, important investments. US greatness was created by investments FUNDED BY DEBT. Alexander Hamilton proved that in the year of the founding of the nation. The US Constitution was created to help solve a pressing need for cooperative investments by states in water projects. The US highway system, the rail network, and the early canal systems were created by investments funded by DEBT.
Reagan's investments, funded by DEBT, in a superior military won the cold war and gave us all, and the whole world, incalculable benefits. Those planes, aircraft carriers, tanks, soldier training programs and missile defense research did it. The US had a budget deficit then, but it paid off.
Visceral rejection of debt is IDIOTIC. Focus on the spending and sell the long term bonds to fund good, long term investments.
All the cuts above combined the tax reform I have already written earlier will reduce Federal Debt to a rock solid, productive level.
What do we keep? What do we Increase?
That's for next week.
Word of the Day
None today; I overslept due to excesive snow shoveling work.
The Federal government wastes huge sums on agriculture subsidies, on education spending and on its payroll. Almost all federal programs could be eliminated and no one would notice.
I. Agricultural subsidies. Why do they exist? Get rid of the whole department except information gathering systems.
II. Education spending. Education was better in the 1950s and 1960s when the Federal government spent nothing on education. Keep only a student loan program.
III. Payroll. Pay and benefits of Federal employees is far too high. Those levels should be cut until the demand for such work falls.
IV. Military Retirement. Early military retirements should be limited to those serving in combat regiments - the people risking their lives. Supply another units would be eligible IF they are exposed to combat, proof being the respective combat badges. Otherwise, collection of retirement pay should begin at age 65.
V. Poverty programs should be consolidated into a simple Social Safety Net. Get rid of all those government social workers. The private sector does that better.
VI. The National Shared Health Benefit will eliminate most of the "Health" half of the Health & Human services Department. Item#V got rid of the other half.
VII. Apply the rules for military retirements in item IV to FBI and all other federal police forces.
VIII. Commerce department. You guessed it. Get rid of all of it except for the information gathering. Ditto the Labor Department.
IX. Stop defending the rest of the world. They now have the capability to defend themselves. Cut back to maintain effective alliances. Keep a smaller, but very effective military. Let Europe fight & pay for its own defense. Ditto Japan and Korea. Let all those places who want missile defense pay for its cost. Keep a strong Navy, Air Force, Army and Marine Corps, though. Keep technological superiority: spending on less than superior weapons is a waste.
X. Eliminate all foreign aid except disaster relief; its not much, but why isn't it zero?
Using debt is GOOD, though, for true investments: fair student loan programs; investment in superior military equipment; investments in parks and historic sites pay off with tourist dollars; investments needed for the Energy and Transportation Solutions. All those are necessary investments for our long term prosperity. DEBT IS GOOD if used for productive, important investments. US greatness was created by investments FUNDED BY DEBT. Alexander Hamilton proved that in the year of the founding of the nation. The US Constitution was created to help solve a pressing need for cooperative investments by states in water projects. The US highway system, the rail network, and the early canal systems were created by investments funded by DEBT.
Reagan's investments, funded by DEBT, in a superior military won the cold war and gave us all, and the whole world, incalculable benefits. Those planes, aircraft carriers, tanks, soldier training programs and missile defense research did it. The US had a budget deficit then, but it paid off.
Visceral rejection of debt is IDIOTIC. Focus on the spending and sell the long term bonds to fund good, long term investments.
All the cuts above combined the tax reform I have already written earlier will reduce Federal Debt to a rock solid, productive level.
What do we keep? What do we Increase?
That's for next week.
Word of the Day
None today; I overslept due to excesive snow shoveling work.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
The Job Solution
Unemployment and underemployment in the US is between 15% and 20% of the workforce. I favor the higher number because I suspect many, many people who could be productive and want to work simply believe that no meaningful work exists that can cover the costs of working. This problem took a catastrophic leap upward in the recent Great Recession
The Great Recession was caused by the Panic of 2008 which was in turn caused by the financial vikings on the Street and in the hedge funds; the hedge funds were funded by the wealthy wanting more money without making productive investments. But the causes are not part of the solution; they are mostly irrelevant.
The solution is ... a combination of policies, of course. No silver bullet.
The Job Solution
I. Stop taxing jobs, completely. That means no more taxes paid on employment income for Social Security, Medicare, unemployment benefits or any other direct or indirect tax on jobs. This will make the cost of hiring people much lower.
II. Eliminate the connection between health care and jobs. That bond prevents people from changing jobs to move on to either better jobs or starting their own businesses. It also increases the cost of employment enormously.
III. Social Security, Medicare AND a new National Shared Heath Care Benefit will be funded by a new Value-added or Sales tax on goods (especially imported goods) and many services (especially imported services). Consumers of imported goods and services now get a free ride - they are freeloaders. Make them pay a fair share to support the American System.
IV. Eliminate all tax subsidies for equipment and machinery (accelerated depreciation, etc.). Eliminate the overseas income tax loopholes. Eliminate tax loopholes for hedge fund managers.
V. Eliminate tax deductions for any compensation above the salary of the President. This will lower the costs of employing many people at middle income wages/salaries vs. the executive suite.
VI. Require compensation committees of corporations to have a majority of true outsiders nominated and drawn from the ranks of INDIVIDUAL shareholders. Require all corporate votes to be secret ballots.
VII. Require any incentive executive pay to have clawback provisions and to included the effects of ANY so-called nonrecurring losses. Require mandatory stockholder votes to approve ANY incentive plans offering pay in excess of the President's salary. These votes are binding. For any plan that loses, the compensation committee is fired and a new committee is formed.
VIII. Require any corporation wishing to bring in immigrants for so-called "hard to fill" jobs first offer the job broadly at a 10% pay increase AND offer job training for any special requirements; provide an arbitration board to protect against unfair or excessively tailored job descriptions.
IX. Eliminate all Federal & State regulations that kick in at some number of jobs, like 50. Those hold down the number of jobs and encourage using high paid employees supported by machines, vs. simple jobs for more people.
X. Eliminate the R&D tax credit and replace it with a Job Training credit.
All these policies will lower the cost of hiring people and increase the demand for people vs. machines. that's what we want. And it frees the entrepreneurial energy of millions of people stuck in dead end jobs with "benefits". The Job Solution will permanently lower the unemployment and underemployment rates. Entrepreneurs will be more free to hire people as hiring becomes simple and direct, with no red tape. The cost of replacing people with machines goes up. By equating the W-2 worker with the 1099 worker, employers will want to hire more people to lock in their services; there will be NO benefit to keeping people on 1099 contracts.
Education is part of the job problem. It's also part of the transportation problem. I will address those matters next week.
EXTRA
Any global warming Kool-Aid crowd: check this out ->
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/02/global-uah-amsu-january-2011-cooler.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LuboMotlsReferenceFrame+%28Lubos+Motl%27s+reference+frame%29
A data stake into the heart of AlGore's propaganda machine.
Word of the Day
"Mimetic" - adjective [$10]
Mimetic means relating to or habitually practicing imitation or mimicry; 2. (Biol.) of or relating to mimicry.
Sentence: The American "leaders" must stop acting as being mimetic is not patriot; stop the "not-invented-here" syndrome. We have a lot to learn from GERMAN employment and education practices. GERMAN unemployment fell to a record low not seen since reunification in 1990. Let's analyze GERMAN policies to see which can help here.
The Great Recession was caused by the Panic of 2008 which was in turn caused by the financial vikings on the Street and in the hedge funds; the hedge funds were funded by the wealthy wanting more money without making productive investments. But the causes are not part of the solution; they are mostly irrelevant.
The solution is ... a combination of policies, of course. No silver bullet.
The Job Solution
I. Stop taxing jobs, completely. That means no more taxes paid on employment income for Social Security, Medicare, unemployment benefits or any other direct or indirect tax on jobs. This will make the cost of hiring people much lower.
II. Eliminate the connection between health care and jobs. That bond prevents people from changing jobs to move on to either better jobs or starting their own businesses. It also increases the cost of employment enormously.
III. Social Security, Medicare AND a new National Shared Heath Care Benefit will be funded by a new Value-added or Sales tax on goods (especially imported goods) and many services (especially imported services). Consumers of imported goods and services now get a free ride - they are freeloaders. Make them pay a fair share to support the American System.
IV. Eliminate all tax subsidies for equipment and machinery (accelerated depreciation, etc.). Eliminate the overseas income tax loopholes. Eliminate tax loopholes for hedge fund managers.
V. Eliminate tax deductions for any compensation above the salary of the President. This will lower the costs of employing many people at middle income wages/salaries vs. the executive suite.
VI. Require compensation committees of corporations to have a majority of true outsiders nominated and drawn from the ranks of INDIVIDUAL shareholders. Require all corporate votes to be secret ballots.
VII. Require any incentive executive pay to have clawback provisions and to included the effects of ANY so-called nonrecurring losses. Require mandatory stockholder votes to approve ANY incentive plans offering pay in excess of the President's salary. These votes are binding. For any plan that loses, the compensation committee is fired and a new committee is formed.
VIII. Require any corporation wishing to bring in immigrants for so-called "hard to fill" jobs first offer the job broadly at a 10% pay increase AND offer job training for any special requirements; provide an arbitration board to protect against unfair or excessively tailored job descriptions.
IX. Eliminate all Federal & State regulations that kick in at some number of jobs, like 50. Those hold down the number of jobs and encourage using high paid employees supported by machines, vs. simple jobs for more people.
X. Eliminate the R&D tax credit and replace it with a Job Training credit.
All these policies will lower the cost of hiring people and increase the demand for people vs. machines. that's what we want. And it frees the entrepreneurial energy of millions of people stuck in dead end jobs with "benefits". The Job Solution will permanently lower the unemployment and underemployment rates. Entrepreneurs will be more free to hire people as hiring becomes simple and direct, with no red tape. The cost of replacing people with machines goes up. By equating the W-2 worker with the 1099 worker, employers will want to hire more people to lock in their services; there will be NO benefit to keeping people on 1099 contracts.
Education is part of the job problem. It's also part of the transportation problem. I will address those matters next week.
EXTRA
Any global warming Kool-Aid crowd: check this out ->
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/02/global-uah-amsu-january-2011-cooler.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LuboMotlsReferenceFrame+%28Lubos+Motl%27s+reference+frame%29
A data stake into the heart of AlGore's propaganda machine.
Word of the Day
"Mimetic" - adjective [$10]
Mimetic means relating to or habitually practicing imitation or mimicry; 2. (Biol.) of or relating to mimicry.
Sentence: The American "leaders" must stop acting as being mimetic is not patriot; stop the "not-invented-here" syndrome. We have a lot to learn from GERMAN employment and education practices. GERMAN unemployment fell to a record low not seen since reunification in 1990. Let's analyze GERMAN policies to see which can help here.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
The Transportation Solution
Yesterday's Energy Solution goes a long way towards solving transportation problems by providing a good source for transportation's energy requirements. But congestion is another dimension of transportation's problems.
The skies are getting full. The highways around major cities are jammed messes many hours of the day. Going in and out of major airports now takes a half hour or longer, and adding security delays, one can easily waste two hours or more on the ground waiting, walking, etc.
Truck traffic on major intercity highways can be extremely dense. Delivery trucks in major cities can fill the roads at permitted times of the day.
Exurbia - the sprawl - around major cities causes more delays and travel as major and minor shopping areas are scattered everywhere, making little chance for trip management. The linear connections (point to point trips) in a growing urban area grows at least quadratically or more, causing more travel time to balloon. Travel time is a waste.
Have you ever heard the comment, that "one would have to drive halfway across the county to find something"? I grew up in a mostly rural county in Ohio - a very typical county - that was 30 miles across the wider dimension. Halfway across is 15 miles. Yet that's how far people living in Exurbia have to travel often simply to get some bread or gasoline or post a letter or go to a bank.
The whole system of urban sprawl and our transportation system is reaching a brick wall of waste from inefficiency, travel costs and congestion. We need a national policy in transportation and communication to relieve the pressure. Yes, communication, too, since simple electronic, Internet communication can eliminate some travel.
The solution to the short term problem of congestion must be consistent with the long term Energy Solution provided yesterday, we we are simply digging a deeper hole.
The solution is, of course a combination of several methods.
I. Reserve air travel for longer trips when ground travel time would be too long.
II. Move more heavy truck traffic to trains. Require freight train systems to adapt to multi-modal systems to allow more smaller truck operators to access trains for long haul freight. If necessary, fund station improvements to make access easier and more timely. Require major train corporations to improve service and make more timely deliveries and provide more access to rail cars.
III. Use powers of eminent domain to assist train systems to become more efficient. Override environmental objections by sending them to national arbitration boards and get that mess out of the courts.
IV. Fund national access to fiber optic Internet service: anywhere connected to a US or State highway or even a county road gets access either by hard wire or shorter range Wi-Fi or Wi-Max.
V. Require cell phone companies owning digital spectrum to provide services withing ten years withing a few miles of such places as listed in item IV. No more use of public airwaves for limited private systems. Make providing a national system a condition of the licenses. Item IV and this item V will help unify the nation as did the rural electrification program of the FDR years. Use existing road or rail rights of way to build the system.
VI. Create regional passenger rail networks in logical regions with enough major cities. Piggyback on the existing rail network and if necessary, use eminent domain to expand it logically, along existing rights of way. If you lay a nation like Germany, England or France onto a map of the US, you will immediately see this will work and remove a huge amount of demand from the highways and airports. Rail works. Europe proves it. China is proving it. Just build the system out by expanding the existing system and OVERRIDE environmental objections by logical arbitration boards.
VII. Fund all this by sale of Federal and State transportation long term bonds. Rates are cheap. This spending - on rail and Internet and cell systems - is a TRUE investment in America, on investments that will pay off hugely. But it need Federal and State powers to override all those petty local and environmental objections. Solve those problems with community boards that are both empowered and required to make decisions in reasonable times.
VIII. Stop urban sprawl. Communities need to grow internally, providing nearby shopping areas in concentrated places like ... Main Street. Then people will be able to shop and obtain entertainment and service with those cheap, short range electric vehicles that I wrote about yesterday.
IX. Start electrifying the rail systems: at first the system will be multi-fuel. Over the next 40-80 years, those trains will need to be run by electricity [See yesterday's post on the Energy Solution]. We know that works - it already exists in the Boston-NYC-Washington Corridor.
X. Rural areas around major cities should be agriculture and recreation zones; large and small farms growing fresh fruits and vegetable with organic technology will supply the people in the major cities. Buying co-ops could provide a secure market for these products. Why are these products grown in California or Mexico and expensively shipped to NYC or Chicago or Boston. That's nuts.
XI. With a better transportation and communication system, small town & small city economics improves. Factories there will have the public systems of support by highways, rail, Internet and cell services. Main Streets and nearby shopping areas work better for the nation than regional Wal-Marts. Those places are so dependent on cheap oil and gasoline that is going away in a few generations. Stop them. Put resources towards concentrating people (voluntarily) in central cities and small town and cities, and improving connections between them End sprawl now!
XII. Stop building new highways except for short connections between existing highways and between nearby cities where only a few miles of road improvements would improve the transportation grid.
My recent trip to Atlanta brought to my eyes how dependent and fragile the current sprawling urban cities are in America. Without cheap gasoline, they could collapse economically. The European rail system DO work. The rail systems around NYC do work. Millions of people use them daily. I've used them. Rail communities move thousands of people safely and quickly along dedicated corridors. Rail is superior for moving people among nearby major cities. I do it - it works and is better.
Anyone looking at a map of the MidWest can see that a regional passenger rail & piggyback truck network connecting Chicago-Detroit-Cleveland-Pittsburgh-Columbus and Indianapolis makes sense. That area is smaller the Germany. All we have to do is COPY the GERMANS and do it, overriding the greenie nuts. Similar regional systems are obvious in Texas, the core South from New Orleans to Miami to Atlanta, California (San Diego to LA to SF to Sacramento), the Mississippi areas of Missouri, Kansas and the southern east cost. The build out will be along existing rail lines and stations. We fund it with long term bonds. [More on this in future posts.]
I could write more, but the general parts of this plan would solve our national transposition problems and provide us with the infrastructure and living areas that lead to happier lives in true communities. We can do this, provided we keep the viking hogs and greenie nuts from bollixing it up for their own agendas.
The above solution mix will solve both the short term and long term Transportation problems for America in a manner consistent with the Energy Solution provided yesterday. Those two together are real solution, not an imaginary one similar to those of the DC bloviators..
Word of the Day
"Apprehend" - verb, transitive [$10]
Apprehend means 1. understand, perceive; 2. seize, arrest; 3. anticipate with uneasiness or fear.
Sentence: Any thinking person driving around a city like Atlanta or Columbus can not apprehend that without cheap gasoline, the city's economy would collapse.
The skies are getting full. The highways around major cities are jammed messes many hours of the day. Going in and out of major airports now takes a half hour or longer, and adding security delays, one can easily waste two hours or more on the ground waiting, walking, etc.
Truck traffic on major intercity highways can be extremely dense. Delivery trucks in major cities can fill the roads at permitted times of the day.
Exurbia - the sprawl - around major cities causes more delays and travel as major and minor shopping areas are scattered everywhere, making little chance for trip management. The linear connections (point to point trips) in a growing urban area grows at least quadratically or more, causing more travel time to balloon. Travel time is a waste.
Have you ever heard the comment, that "one would have to drive halfway across the county to find something"? I grew up in a mostly rural county in Ohio - a very typical county - that was 30 miles across the wider dimension. Halfway across is 15 miles. Yet that's how far people living in Exurbia have to travel often simply to get some bread or gasoline or post a letter or go to a bank.
The whole system of urban sprawl and our transportation system is reaching a brick wall of waste from inefficiency, travel costs and congestion. We need a national policy in transportation and communication to relieve the pressure. Yes, communication, too, since simple electronic, Internet communication can eliminate some travel.
The solution to the short term problem of congestion must be consistent with the long term Energy Solution provided yesterday, we we are simply digging a deeper hole.
The solution is, of course a combination of several methods.
I. Reserve air travel for longer trips when ground travel time would be too long.
II. Move more heavy truck traffic to trains. Require freight train systems to adapt to multi-modal systems to allow more smaller truck operators to access trains for long haul freight. If necessary, fund station improvements to make access easier and more timely. Require major train corporations to improve service and make more timely deliveries and provide more access to rail cars.
III. Use powers of eminent domain to assist train systems to become more efficient. Override environmental objections by sending them to national arbitration boards and get that mess out of the courts.
IV. Fund national access to fiber optic Internet service: anywhere connected to a US or State highway or even a county road gets access either by hard wire or shorter range Wi-Fi or Wi-Max.
V. Require cell phone companies owning digital spectrum to provide services withing ten years withing a few miles of such places as listed in item IV. No more use of public airwaves for limited private systems. Make providing a national system a condition of the licenses. Item IV and this item V will help unify the nation as did the rural electrification program of the FDR years. Use existing road or rail rights of way to build the system.
VI. Create regional passenger rail networks in logical regions with enough major cities. Piggyback on the existing rail network and if necessary, use eminent domain to expand it logically, along existing rights of way. If you lay a nation like Germany, England or France onto a map of the US, you will immediately see this will work and remove a huge amount of demand from the highways and airports. Rail works. Europe proves it. China is proving it. Just build the system out by expanding the existing system and OVERRIDE environmental objections by logical arbitration boards.
VII. Fund all this by sale of Federal and State transportation long term bonds. Rates are cheap. This spending - on rail and Internet and cell systems - is a TRUE investment in America, on investments that will pay off hugely. But it need Federal and State powers to override all those petty local and environmental objections. Solve those problems with community boards that are both empowered and required to make decisions in reasonable times.
VIII. Stop urban sprawl. Communities need to grow internally, providing nearby shopping areas in concentrated places like ... Main Street. Then people will be able to shop and obtain entertainment and service with those cheap, short range electric vehicles that I wrote about yesterday.
IX. Start electrifying the rail systems: at first the system will be multi-fuel. Over the next 40-80 years, those trains will need to be run by electricity [See yesterday's post on the Energy Solution]. We know that works - it already exists in the Boston-NYC-Washington Corridor.
X. Rural areas around major cities should be agriculture and recreation zones; large and small farms growing fresh fruits and vegetable with organic technology will supply the people in the major cities. Buying co-ops could provide a secure market for these products. Why are these products grown in California or Mexico and expensively shipped to NYC or Chicago or Boston. That's nuts.
XI. With a better transportation and communication system, small town & small city economics improves. Factories there will have the public systems of support by highways, rail, Internet and cell services. Main Streets and nearby shopping areas work better for the nation than regional Wal-Marts. Those places are so dependent on cheap oil and gasoline that is going away in a few generations. Stop them. Put resources towards concentrating people (voluntarily) in central cities and small town and cities, and improving connections between them End sprawl now!
XII. Stop building new highways except for short connections between existing highways and between nearby cities where only a few miles of road improvements would improve the transportation grid.
My recent trip to Atlanta brought to my eyes how dependent and fragile the current sprawling urban cities are in America. Without cheap gasoline, they could collapse economically. The European rail system DO work. The rail systems around NYC do work. Millions of people use them daily. I've used them. Rail communities move thousands of people safely and quickly along dedicated corridors. Rail is superior for moving people among nearby major cities. I do it - it works and is better.
Anyone looking at a map of the MidWest can see that a regional passenger rail & piggyback truck network connecting Chicago-Detroit-Cleveland-Pittsburgh-Columbus and Indianapolis makes sense. That area is smaller the Germany. All we have to do is COPY the GERMANS and do it, overriding the greenie nuts. Similar regional systems are obvious in Texas, the core South from New Orleans to Miami to Atlanta, California (San Diego to LA to SF to Sacramento), the Mississippi areas of Missouri, Kansas and the southern east cost. The build out will be along existing rail lines and stations. We fund it with long term bonds. [More on this in future posts.]
I could write more, but the general parts of this plan would solve our national transposition problems and provide us with the infrastructure and living areas that lead to happier lives in true communities. We can do this, provided we keep the viking hogs and greenie nuts from bollixing it up for their own agendas.
The above solution mix will solve both the short term and long term Transportation problems for America in a manner consistent with the Energy Solution provided yesterday. Those two together are real solution, not an imaginary one similar to those of the DC bloviators..
Word of the Day
"Apprehend" - verb, transitive [$10]
Apprehend means 1. understand, perceive; 2. seize, arrest; 3. anticipate with uneasiness or fear.
Sentence: Any thinking person driving around a city like Atlanta or Columbus can not apprehend that without cheap gasoline, the city's economy would collapse.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
The Energy Solution
The most important long term problem facing America and the entire world is energy - low cost energy. Forty years ago the problem began to be noticed, and the screechers and crypto-fascists screamed about running out of oil and natural gas. We are still not running out of either, BUT world annual demand IS bumping strongly against available annual supply availability. There is no slack capacity to keep costs down long term and prevent huge spikes short term.
For oil, the huge old oil fields are running out and production is declining for them. Higher cost sources are making that up, but where is the supply to replace them? The world is nearly fully explored; very high cost sources in the deep water field on the continental shelf are now being drawn. In forty years, they will, too, have weakening production.
Natural gas supplies are now very large as new technology made shale gas available at low cost. But those fields run out fast, requiring more and more fracturing. LNG brings much "orphan" natural gas to market. But demand is growing fast; where will all these be in forty years?
Forty years is the useful life of a well-made building. That's the proper horizon for governmental planners - those RESPONSIBLE for an energy policy. Of course, they are now doing nothing.
Peak oil theory was misnamed; the correct name is "the oil plateau". Annual production simply stops growing fast, not as fast as demand at a price. Hence, prices rise and spike with short term demand (such as from crowds of speculators, as in summer 2008). Those short term spikes cause havoc on people and national economies. That is the short term problem.
We need an energy policy that solves the short term and long term problems and is fair to the common man and woman.
Some facts (from memory):
1. Over the next 40 years, oil & gas production will plateau. Demand will rise as third world nations' demand grows.
2. Prices will slowly rise, with many spikes upward.
3. Higher prices will bring more difficult sources of hydrocarbons into production, such as oil shale. Already, tar sands are economical if natural gas prices are low enough (natural gas is needed to heat the tar to extract the oil).
4. The plateau can be stretched to perhaps 80 years. That means one lifetime. Remember, 80 years ago was 1930, certainly in our collective historical memories.
5. Coal can supply energy for electrical production for hundreds of years.
6. Nuclear power can supply energy to thousands of years, IF proven breeder reactor technology is used. By the way, France uses this technology. The nuclear waste is reprocessed and "burnt" in the breeder reactors.
7. A breeder reactor makes more fuel that it consumes. The reactor burns uranium 235 in a manner that also convert plentiful uranium 238 to plutonium 239, which IS a nuclear fuel, too. Breeder reactors can also convert even more plentiful thorium to usable forms of uranium; China just announced it is contractuing such reactors. From memory, energy from such reactors can make energy for tens of thousands of years. That is a long term solution.
8. We need transportable energy for transportation. Electrical power can be used in low power cars for short haul transportation. Electrical power can make hydrogen for use in fuel cells: fuels cells combine hydrogen with oxygen to make electrical energy.
9. For many decades, people will need a personal transportation vehicle. The structure of current urban sprawl mandates this. But we don't need or want more sprawl.
The Solution
Don't even think on one solution. The world does not work that way. Policy types and demagogues bloviate about their own "silver bullet" solution, but they are often just pushing their own private gravy train. The world works by combined solutions at all levels from the atomic level to the national economic level (see post of October 27, 2009).
We use a combination of the above in a changing mix to solve both the long term problem and the short term problem.
I. Begin building breeder reactors. They are the long term solution. Use the electricity for base power initially.
II. Continue using coal for base power.
III. The above keeps base electric power costs steady and low, with electric supply reliable.
IV. Use now-plentiful natural gas for peak electrical power demand spikes - those hot summer days.
V. Start shifting new building codes to promote electric heating in New England and other areas that use fuel oil now. Use electricity for cooling. Over time, do similar conversions is areas heated by natural gas.
VI. Start promoting small electric vehicles for short term trips: shopping in town, nearby malls, errands, trips to the post office, or beer store. Change zoning rules to promote charging stations. Use nuclear and coal power to keep base-load power cost low - this keeps recharging costs low. Over a generation, the two car family becomes one regular car (likely an SUV) and one or more smaller electric cars.
VII. Over time, use that cheap base load power to make hydrogen. A regular SUV running hydrogen fuel cells can have the power and range for a normal family car. This transition will take 20-40 years. But over time it can be done. By the way, the transition from horse power to gasoline power took 40 years, too.
VIII. Use coal to make kerosene to power planes and heavy trucks. I suspect electrical power has problems providing enough controllable energy with sufficient density to power airplanes and trucks (we need trucks for local deliveries). Perhaps rockets can be adapted for subsonic flight, but I don't know. Such rocket planes might not be economical due to the weight of the fuel carried ompared to the payload. Rocket trucks? Forget about it. I do know one can make kerosene from coal; the Germans did it in WW II. That proven technology will work for hundreds of years. Also, use coal and natural gas to make the plastics and petrochemicals the world economy needs.
IX. Use zoning to reduce urban sprawl slowly. Bring back small towns and communities where those small, electric vehicles are very, very useful. This also cuts the costs of delivery of products bought online and all other deliveries to stores, etc.
X. Over 40-80 years, America becomes an electrical nation, not a gasoline or natural gas powered nation. Much electrical production will go the make hydrogen from fresh water and sea water. Coal will continue to make kerosene for planes and heavy trucks and petrochemicals for centuries. Eventually, they will use hydrogen, too. Energy will remain cheap and plentiful and living standards can be high for thousands of years. The transition period will pull enough demand off oil to keep its cost from excessive peaking. Pollution falls as clean nuclear power replaces most of oil use.
The above ten points are a solution to the energy problems facing America and the world on both the short term and long term. We simply need a coherent, integrated policies adopted to bring all the parts into the solution. And we need to keep the greenie nuts and viking hogs OUT.
Word of the Day
"Nigh" - adjective [$10]
Nigh means being near in time, place or relationship; close.
Sentence: Catastrophic energy shortages are more nigh than most think. Without policies using now-proven technologies, the next couple decades is almost certain to bring economic disaster.
For oil, the huge old oil fields are running out and production is declining for them. Higher cost sources are making that up, but where is the supply to replace them? The world is nearly fully explored; very high cost sources in the deep water field on the continental shelf are now being drawn. In forty years, they will, too, have weakening production.
Natural gas supplies are now very large as new technology made shale gas available at low cost. But those fields run out fast, requiring more and more fracturing. LNG brings much "orphan" natural gas to market. But demand is growing fast; where will all these be in forty years?
Forty years is the useful life of a well-made building. That's the proper horizon for governmental planners - those RESPONSIBLE for an energy policy. Of course, they are now doing nothing.
Peak oil theory was misnamed; the correct name is "the oil plateau". Annual production simply stops growing fast, not as fast as demand at a price. Hence, prices rise and spike with short term demand (such as from crowds of speculators, as in summer 2008). Those short term spikes cause havoc on people and national economies. That is the short term problem.
We need an energy policy that solves the short term and long term problems and is fair to the common man and woman.
Some facts (from memory):
1. Over the next 40 years, oil & gas production will plateau. Demand will rise as third world nations' demand grows.
2. Prices will slowly rise, with many spikes upward.
3. Higher prices will bring more difficult sources of hydrocarbons into production, such as oil shale. Already, tar sands are economical if natural gas prices are low enough (natural gas is needed to heat the tar to extract the oil).
4. The plateau can be stretched to perhaps 80 years. That means one lifetime. Remember, 80 years ago was 1930, certainly in our collective historical memories.
5. Coal can supply energy for electrical production for hundreds of years.
6. Nuclear power can supply energy to thousands of years, IF proven breeder reactor technology is used. By the way, France uses this technology. The nuclear waste is reprocessed and "burnt" in the breeder reactors.
7. A breeder reactor makes more fuel that it consumes. The reactor burns uranium 235 in a manner that also convert plentiful uranium 238 to plutonium 239, which IS a nuclear fuel, too. Breeder reactors can also convert even more plentiful thorium to usable forms of uranium; China just announced it is contractuing such reactors. From memory, energy from such reactors can make energy for tens of thousands of years. That is a long term solution.
8. We need transportable energy for transportation. Electrical power can be used in low power cars for short haul transportation. Electrical power can make hydrogen for use in fuel cells: fuels cells combine hydrogen with oxygen to make electrical energy.
9. For many decades, people will need a personal transportation vehicle. The structure of current urban sprawl mandates this. But we don't need or want more sprawl.
The Solution
Don't even think on one solution. The world does not work that way. Policy types and demagogues bloviate about their own "silver bullet" solution, but they are often just pushing their own private gravy train. The world works by combined solutions at all levels from the atomic level to the national economic level (see post of October 27, 2009).
We use a combination of the above in a changing mix to solve both the long term problem and the short term problem.
I. Begin building breeder reactors. They are the long term solution. Use the electricity for base power initially.
II. Continue using coal for base power.
III. The above keeps base electric power costs steady and low, with electric supply reliable.
IV. Use now-plentiful natural gas for peak electrical power demand spikes - those hot summer days.
V. Start shifting new building codes to promote electric heating in New England and other areas that use fuel oil now. Use electricity for cooling. Over time, do similar conversions is areas heated by natural gas.
VI. Start promoting small electric vehicles for short term trips: shopping in town, nearby malls, errands, trips to the post office, or beer store. Change zoning rules to promote charging stations. Use nuclear and coal power to keep base-load power cost low - this keeps recharging costs low. Over a generation, the two car family becomes one regular car (likely an SUV) and one or more smaller electric cars.
VII. Over time, use that cheap base load power to make hydrogen. A regular SUV running hydrogen fuel cells can have the power and range for a normal family car. This transition will take 20-40 years. But over time it can be done. By the way, the transition from horse power to gasoline power took 40 years, too.
VIII. Use coal to make kerosene to power planes and heavy trucks. I suspect electrical power has problems providing enough controllable energy with sufficient density to power airplanes and trucks (we need trucks for local deliveries). Perhaps rockets can be adapted for subsonic flight, but I don't know. Such rocket planes might not be economical due to the weight of the fuel carried ompared to the payload. Rocket trucks? Forget about it. I do know one can make kerosene from coal; the Germans did it in WW II. That proven technology will work for hundreds of years. Also, use coal and natural gas to make the plastics and petrochemicals the world economy needs.
IX. Use zoning to reduce urban sprawl slowly. Bring back small towns and communities where those small, electric vehicles are very, very useful. This also cuts the costs of delivery of products bought online and all other deliveries to stores, etc.
X. Over 40-80 years, America becomes an electrical nation, not a gasoline or natural gas powered nation. Much electrical production will go the make hydrogen from fresh water and sea water. Coal will continue to make kerosene for planes and heavy trucks and petrochemicals for centuries. Eventually, they will use hydrogen, too. Energy will remain cheap and plentiful and living standards can be high for thousands of years. The transition period will pull enough demand off oil to keep its cost from excessive peaking. Pollution falls as clean nuclear power replaces most of oil use.
The above ten points are a solution to the energy problems facing America and the world on both the short term and long term. We simply need a coherent, integrated policies adopted to bring all the parts into the solution. And we need to keep the greenie nuts and viking hogs OUT.
Word of the Day
"Nigh" - adjective [$10]
Nigh means being near in time, place or relationship; close.
Sentence: Catastrophic energy shortages are more nigh than most think. Without policies using now-proven technologies, the next couple decades is almost certain to bring economic disaster.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
