Les Grands Pêcheurs

I returned from the wilderness of northern Algonquin National Park in Canada with renewed vigor and a mind clear of all those daily entanglements that modernity creates. Imagine a life of no watch ... no cell phone ... no appointments ... no clients ... just a need to cope with simple living in nature. It was a wonderful trip and I recommend such trips to everyone.

We woke up around dawn every day and went to bed a little after dusk, or a bit later if the conversation and fire were especially enjoyable. We saw the Milky Way and more stars than I've seen at once for years. The call of the loon kept company, as did the "friendly" squirrels. No mosquitos !!!

And ... the promises of the fishermen were fulfilled !

Big Al and Big John proved themselves to be "les grands pêcheurs" - the great fishermen - as they bagged three smallmouth bass on one day. Those fish provided about 5 pounds of fillets that Big John deep fried over an open fire. He used a simple batter to coat the fish and fried the chunks in deep oil. The fried fish was superb, and was accompanied by wine supplied by that epicurean camper, Woody. A marvelous meal in the wilderness. Other fish were caught, including a large smallmouth weighing perhaps six pounds (no "fish story" - there is a photo), but were released.

Actually, all the campers were epicureans, even myself. I took along both ascetic, simple foods such as hardtack and the elegant - two flasks filled with fine Rémy Martin cognac. If one is willing to lug the gear over the portages, one can take a lot of gear in a canoe to enhance the pleasure of the camps.

I'll write more this week about the trip.

Big Events of the Past Week

The big event of the past week must be the re-appointment of Battleship Ben as head of the Fed. That is excellent. I believe that Obama did not want to do that, but the problems he's having with his health care plan led him to want to avoid any market risks that not appointing Ben might create. With Ben at the helm, I think the risks of a repetition of a 1970s style stagflation are much lower. By the way, this indicates that perhaps Barry reads this blog, as I've written for a couple months how important this re-appointment was. Keep reading, Barry.

The overthrow of the LDP in Japan could be a hugely significant event over the long term. What it could mean for economies and stocks, though, is obscure for now, except I expect the yen to weaken.

Pundits were Wrong Again

All those big mouth naysayers seem to have been wrong about the TARP and Fed interventions costing the taxpayer huge sums.

From FT: "The Federal Reserve has made a $14bn profit on loan programmes that have provided hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity to the financial system since the start of the crisis two years ago, according to Fed officials. The internal estimate is based on the difference between the fees and interest on the lending facilities and the interest the Fed would have earned had it invested the funds in three-month Treasury bills."

From WSJ: "The U.S. Treasury has so far collected a combined $7.3 billion in dividend payments from many of the hundreds of banks to which it has loaned government capital, its latest report shows."

The gain or loss of these programs to save and re-start the economy will not be known in full until a few more years, but the disaster blather of many big mouth pundits and politicians seems to be in the process of being proven wrong .. again.

Actions

Doing nothing. I'm noodling over creating a list of exporter stocks to buy for Obama Fund. I see the world economic growth being led by increased world trade among the various emerging regions: China, southeast Asia, India, South American, eastern Europe. US exporters should be able to perform well.

Word of the Day

"Circumambulate" - verb [$10] formal
Circumambulate means to walk around or about.
Sentence: With his guide to the trees of Algonquin Park, Bunkerman spent some free time circumambulating the woods near the campsites identifying trees that he had never seen before: Yellow Birch, White Spruce, Mountain Maple. And the giant Hemlocks were magnificent.

Going into the Wilderness

I'll be on a canoe trip in the wilderness of Canada next week, so there will be no new posts until Monday, August 31. The weather forecasts look OK so far [mostly 70F days & 55F nights with some sun; one day of rain]. I've have just my tomahawk and a big knife to protection, as taking firearms to Canada is a no-no. This trip will be in a Canadian National Park; even the US prohibits firearms in those special places. The location does not have grizzly bears, and we will be camping on islands. Bears can swim, but at least we won't be an easy target.

Actions

The markets still have a bid, especially in Europe. How long this can last without more good news is a question. Reports of mutual fund inflows are a good sign. Still, more good news will be crucial to the survival of this bull market.

I'm doing nothing - on a dip to 950 [S&P], I'll re-buy some stocks. On a major rally to 1100 or even my 1200 target, I'll flip more positions in Fido Fund [60% long] and take gains from equities in Krypto Fund to buy TIPs or whatever is needed for its allocations.

Word of the Day

"Eclectic" - adjective and noun [$10]; from the card file
Eclectic means (adjective) 1. selecting what appears to be the best in various doctrines, methods, or styles; 2. composed of elements from various sources; (noun) one who uses an eclectic method of approach.
Sentence: Bunkerman has an eclectic food supply for the canoe trip: pioneer-style pemmican; Civil War hardtack, modern GI MREs, and fine French cognac. A true wilderness epicurean !

Le Mot du Jour

"Portage" - noun, masculine; and "Portager" - verb, regular -er like manger.
Portage means portage - a place where a water traveler must carry the canoe/boat overland a short distance to the next river/lake.
Portager means to portage.
La Phrase: L'homme du bunker espère que le prémiere portage n'est pas trop difficile.
Sentence: Bunkerman hopes that the first portage is not too difficult.

Nothing

"Rien" is the French word "nothing"; it's an indefinite pronoun, a masculine noun and an adverb. Reading the news this morning (FT, WSJ, BBC, Briefing online, listening to Bloomberg TV) produced nothing to spark my febrile grey matter.

Nothing happened last night. Nothing is happening now. I am doing nothing.

Il ne s'est rien passé la nuit dernière. Il ne se passe rien maintenant. Je ne fais rien.

I miscalculated the volume of my gear for the canoe trip to the wilderness, so today must go to Dick's Sporting Good to buy a larger pack. In simple, the volume of my spare clothes got larger when I looked at a long range weather forecast and saw likely 45F overnights and some rain. Warmer clothes are bulkier. hence the needs for a larger pack. My old West German Army pack won't hold the gear.

I'll write more about my philosophy reading and the lectures I've heard recently, but I learned that my operating philosophy of everyday life is a true "Epicurean". An Epicurean life style is mostly ascetic, but includes a few items and activities of high culture and refinement. For example, I mostly eat simple food and even thought the MREs yesterday were rather good, but I also enjoy a fine meal of sushi and wine twice a week.

Actions

The market rallied to a gain yesterday and futures are up this morning. Europe is up. I'm wary and await better prices for my re-buys. On more good news (which I think will evenually come), though, I think the market will rise significantly to the S&P 1200 area by year end. Krypto Fund has its usual allocations, so will participate even if my smaller intermediate accounts do not.

Word of the Day

"Halcyon" - noun & adjective [$10]
Halcyon means (noun) 1. a mythical bird having the power to calm winds and waves; (adjective)2. calm, peaceful; 3. rich, wealthy, prosperous; 4. happy, joyful, carefree.
Sentence: A bloviating, bow-tied pundit lately is saying that America's halcyon days are over. What he means is vague. Were the Bush II years those halcyon days ? Or the Clinton tech boom & bust ? Or the Reagan years ? I presume he doesn't mean the 1970s or 1960s. Maybe he means the 1950s. Well, that's the thing about pundits. They just blab on and on with no one ever checking the facts or getting a clear definition of their "clever" phrases.

Preparation

My canoe trip to the wilderness next week is the focus of my efforts lately. I'm testing and collecting and sorting my survival gear acquired over the past 25 years to select the best package to take along. Which knives ... which fire starting gear ... which food ... etc., etc. ?

The pemmican I made tastes good, and the hardtack is quite edible with peanut butter. I have some dried fruit, too, for the fish fries I've been assured will occur. Of course, though, I'll be taking some backup food if the fish don't leap onto the hooks of "les pêcheurs" aka the fishermen.

I've always kept a stockpile of MREs for food in case of civil strife or whatever, so I decided to actually eat some today. Mine are about five years old, as I re-stock my supplies every decade. That will let me test their edibility and their heaters - I've never actually eaten or used the heaters to heat the food. Sooooooo ...

For breakfast I'm having the MRE named, "egg omelet with cheese and vegetables". For lunch it will be the "chicken fajita filling" and "shredded potatoes with bacon". I'll also try the other items in the MRE: crackers, dried beverage, etc.

I'll post some "PS" items later as I do this today.

PS: The "egg omelet with cheese and vegetables" was quite edible and tasted OK with a reasonable texture. I'd describe it as a class below the old airline food. Rather than use a heater on my first try, I boiled the pouch for five minutes, which was adequate, but I think six or seven would be better. The pouch required a knife to cut open.

PPS: Just finished the MRE lunch - I thought it was quite good; as good as airline food or better. Lunch was chicken fajita filling (white meat), shredded potatoes with bacon & pineapple pound cake. All very tasty. The heater worked a bit less than the label suggested. I let it heat 15 minutes, but I think a few more would have helped. The food was just warm.

I also had the instant coffee mid-morning. Perfectly good.

Overall, these MREs are a fine source for food on the trail, during civil strife or after a comet hits

Actions

Europe and US futures are down about 1%. Maybe "they" will knock stocks down enough to give me some low risk re-buys. Waiting ...

Word of the Day

"Palatine" - noun & adjective [$10]
Palatine means 1. high officer of an imperial palace; 2. a feudal lord or official exercising sovereign authority over his lands or region (which would be the 'palatinate'); 3. a title of various administrative officials of the late Roman and Byzantine empires. [The term is often seen in writings about Germany, central and eastern Europe in the middle ages.]
Sentence: Why do so many CEOs think of themselves as a palatine and not as working for shareholders ? The problem arises from weak boards of directors and SEC rules the keep them weak.

Le Mot du Jour

"Qui-vive" - noun, masculine, invariant
Qui-vive is mainly used in expressions: être sur le qui-vive.
La Phrase: Soyez sur le qui-vive !
Sentence: Be prepared ! ... or ... Be on the alert !

More Evidence on Aristocracies

History is littered with the wrecks of nations destroyed by the growth of power & wealth of their aristocracies at the expense of the common man and the central government. Examples are the Roman republic, Byzantium, the Mameluke empire, and the Commonwealth of Poland-Lithuania.

My recent readings on ancient Sparta show it to be another victim of them. To be a full citizen of Sparta, a man had to be able to contribute a fixed amount to the common mess - essentially his military-social unit. Originally land was held in common by the state and worked by state slaves called Helots. A male child deemed healthy was given a plot of land to support him and his family. The slaves worked the land while he trained as a full time soldier.

Over time, this land became inheritable. Through marriages and attrition in wars, the rich families gained control of more and more land. Casualties in war left wealthy widows and removed that land from the support of soldiers. Fewer and few men could make the required contribution to the mess, resulting in fewer and fewer full citizens of Sparta. Land and citizenship reform could have solved this serious problem, but the aristocracies prevented it to keep their power.

Around 490 BC at the time the Persian wars began, there were 8,000 Spartan soldiers. A bit over 100 years later, there were only around 1,000. This was a disastrous decline in manpower of group that sustained the "Spartan way of life". Weakened, Sparta was defeated for the first time in battle by Thebes and lost control of one half of its territory and eventually its allies melted away.

Sparta was destroyed by the greed and lust for power of its own aristocracy.

One "unintended consequence" of this financial crisis has been a serious weakening of the growing wealth and power of the nascent US aristocracy. That class began to grow in the 1990s in the technology boom. Tech billionaires began to buy up all the beautiful land and sites, often fencing them off from the common man. And in this last boom, the hedge fund billionaires were doing the same thing. They lobbied for repeal of laws preventing perpetual trusts so they could create family dynasties. This was a serious, developing problem. Perhaps now some changes can be made to prevent them from seriously damaging US social cohesion.

Actions

I am doing nothing. Je ne fais rien. The futures are bouncing a bit this morning. On a further drop to 950 for the S&P, I'll build a list of re-buys.

Word of the Day

"Oliganthropy" - noun [$1000]; from the Greek combining form, "Oligo-"
Oligo- means small, little, few in forming nouns.
Oliganthropy means the state or quality of having few men.
Sentence: Growth in power of the aristocracy in ancient Sparta created increasing oliganthropy over the decades for the fifth and early fourth centuries BC, eventually fatally weakening the nation.

Climbing out the Windows

Eliot Ness must have bashed down the doors of the market's speakeasies last evening, as the beefers are climbing out the windows this morning, having all hit the sell buttons at the same time. I wrote about this behavior a few days as a reason that I don't like being leveraged long when the markets are making intermediate term highs.

And they are acting according to the book on their behavior.

Chinese markets were down over 5% last night, Europe is down about 2% this morning early and US futures are down about 2%. Commodities are down, too.

Any news ? Nope.

FT: "Japan has climbed out of recession after the economy returned to growth in the second quarter, raising hopes that the worst of the financial crisis is over in the world’s second-largest economy. Data released on Monday showed that gross domestic product expanded 0.9 per cent quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, following four quarters of contraction. On an annualised basis, the economy grew 3.7 per cent.

The Street is reverting to its foolish overpayment culture as Barclays is offering some commodity traders in London huge pay packages to lure them from JPMorgan.

I was thinking this morning of the proper names for this economic slowdown and conclude that the Panic of '08 fits best. The world economies were going into a plain mid-cycle slowdown until the beefers and shorts started the raiding in the summer of 2008, culminating in the full bore financial panic of September and October. The second wave of that panic occurred in February and early March of 2009 over fears that Obama was failing to lead.

Hmmm in French, that name is a rhyming La Panique d'Zéro Huit.

Actions

I am doing nothing. Je ne fais rien. Often these selloffs take a few days to run their courses unless some fundamental change is being recognized. Thus, for now, I wait. Fido Fund has plenty of cash as does Obama Fund. If nothing fundamental seems changed, I'll target some names and groups that I've been noodling over.

Word of the Day

"Zeitgeist" - noun [$10]; a German word now used in American writing.
Zeitgeist means the spirit and outlook characteristic of a period or generation.
Sentence: If a phrase reflects the zeitgeist of the Great Depression, it was "buddy, can you spare a dime". I wonder what phrase will reflect the zeitgeist of the Panic of '08?

Verbum Diei

"Fortuna" - noun, first declension, feminine; its genitive is fortunae.
Fortuna means fortune, luck.
Sententia: Fortes fortuna iuvat. [from Terence]
Sentence: Fortune helps the brave. [alternate: Fortune favors the bold.]

A Two-For-One

This blog post provides two good lessons from one simple example - a learning bargain. And it's multi-lingual, too.

Yesterday I was doing a bit of preparation for my upcoming canoe trip to the distant Canadian north, viz., looking up French words for some of the activities our group will be doing. This is a good way to improve one's vocabulary. One of the group has guaranteed that he will catch plenty of fish for food for a few meals. Another fellow seems skilled at fishing, too, as he speaks of various lures, etc., that should work. So I looked up the word for "fishing" in French. Lo and behold, I found that it's quite similar to the word for "sin". And for "peach", too. Here they are:

Le péché - noun - meaning "sin" and pronounced "payshay".
La pêche - noun - meaning "fishing" and pronounced "pesh" [The word for "peach" is identical, but I'll stick with fishing and sinning.]

Lots of derivative words exist, too: pécher - verb for "to sin", le pécheur - a male sinner; And pêcher - verb for "to fish", le pêcheur, a male fisherman.

So what does this mean ? Do the concepts of sin and fishing have some connection in French culture ?

Hmmm ... speculating lazily, one could wonder if the Christian religion that dominated French culture and society for centuries might have produced some connection, via the notion of Christ "fishing" for souls, or from St. Peter being a fisherman, or the ancient sign for Christians being a fish. That's what a slothful pundit or blogger would bloviate. Not your writer.

I decided to check the facts - French is a romance language and many words derive from Latin. As I am re-learning Latin, I looked up the Latin words for "sin" and "fish". And lo and behold, here is what I found.

Latin for "to sin" is "peccare", thus "I sin" is "pecco". this is pronounced "pekko".
Latin for "a fish" is "piscis", pronounced "piskis" with the 'i' as in "pin" and the 's' as in "sin".

The similarities in the classical Latin of 2000 years ago can be no accident.

Over the centuries, classical Latin became the vulgar Latin of the common man, then became 'fratin' in Gaul, then Old French and now modern French. The spelling and pronunciation changed. Voilá - the two words independently converged. Modern French uses the acute accent é and the circumflex ê to distinguish the now minor spelling difference and modest pronunciation difference.

What are the two lessons ?

1. Independent, unconnected events, characteristics and traits CAN and DO evolve into near identities. Even two nearly identical things or events do not necessarily have a causal connection.

2. Check your facts, or risk a blunder.

Actions

I am still doing nothing. Je ne fais encore rien.

Word of the Day

"Perchance" - adverb [$10]
Perchance means 1. by chance; 2. possibly, maybe.
Sentence: Similarity may be due to a connection, or perchance be a mere accident.