Yesterday I both praised and flogged the Republicans. Today I do the same to Democrats.
The Good
"Most" Democrats have some true empathy for poor and marginalized persons and correctly recognize that much of this is simply bad luck. Luck has huge effects on how jobs, small business and careers turn out. "Most" Democrats want to even out this inherent volatility of life in the US; to do "something" to more equalize "happiness" across people.
"Most" Democrats are street fighters - they believe strongly that their "party" is correct and will do almost anything to win. This strength of beliefs is in sharp contrast to the spineless nature of many" Republicans, who dislike getting their hands a bit dirty.
"Most" Democrats want those who are receiving the most benefits of life in the US to pay a larger share of the cost of supporting the US.
That's about it.
The Bad
"Most" Democrats look at a human being and don't see one; they see instead a member of a class, a racial group, an ethnic group, or a union member, scab or boss.
"Most" Democrats think crime is not performed by people with free will, but by persons controlled by the forces of society and contaminated (or animated) by things like handguns.
"Most" Democrats think the solution to a problem is to prevent it by imposing restrictions and controls on everyone, not by simply dealing with the problem directly where it is and who is causing it.
"Most" Democrats think large segments of people should get a free ride in the US paid for by the amorphous class of the "Rich".
"Most" Democrats don't want those who are already rich and wealthy to pay to support the US - they prefer to tax those trying to get rich. This is perhaps caused by the huge financial support given to the Democratic Party by those with inherited wealth or those who are already rich.
"Most" Democrats see the US as the cause of most of the world's problems.
"Most" Democrats are opposed to having a militarily strong US. They seem to prefer a world government and put faith in paper treaties for US security.
"Most" Democrats love US labor unions as a source of political power, neglecting the historical facts that companies with such unions tend to be driven out of business over time, causing huge pain and suffering for huge numbers of union members who lose jobs over time.
"Most" Democrats love government rules and regulations as ways to control people, prevent "undue" competition and to protect those in power and with existing businesses (who can be shaken down for campaign contributions).
"Most" Democrats love government workers - especially unionized ones - who can be reliable campaign workers to help Democrats retain power.
"Most" Democrats think human beings are a contamination on the Planet Earth, and that people - and ALL their activities - need to be strictly controlled by government to prevent stupid people from damaging the Planet. Historical facts about true forces of nature and its variations and effects over the past few thousand years are ignored: free people are the problem.
"Most" Democrats think health care is a fundamental Right, but neglect to explain how it can be a Right when such would impose a positive burden on others. Health care can be a shared benefit of a wealthy society, but cannot be a right in any self-consistent political theory. To see this simply, consider two people on an island. One must work for the other's "right", hence is a slave.
"Most" Democrats think judges are the proper deciders of many, many social issues ... as long as they get the right answer. "Most" Democrats seem to dislike democracy - when those white, working class people actually go vote for laws that "Most" Democrats are against. They seem to prefer rule by the new Lords of Society.
"Most" Democrats want to use large corporations as arms of the State, to impose all sorts of rules and regulations from the treatment of employees to environmental actions. The definition of "large" to a Democrat is over 50 employees. Odd coincidence ... that was the upper limit in Communist Poland for a firm being privately owned.
"Most" Democrats think the US Constitution is not a written document with specific words. They like unelected judges to re-write it as needed, making it up as they go along, making it "say" whatever they believe at the time. This connects to the Democratic dislike of democracy - the people are prevented from having a role in this matter.
Conclusion
"Most" Democrats - that is, the philosophical underpinning of their thinking - has no respect for human beings as individuals. They don't like people and see free people as the problem: they must be controlled. In that sense, they don't like democracy, and seem to prefer a new feudal aristocracy led by the already wealthy living off trust funds and municipal bonds. The new Princes and their councils of Lords & Bishops (the professionals) lead legions of unionized public employees and have State officials from judges to department heads to issue edicts to control the people.
Tomorrow I dissect the new Ruling Class - who they are & where they came from.
Word of the Day
"Traduce" - verb, transitive [$10]
Traduce means to speak ill of; misrepresent
Sentence: When a political candidate spends all his time traducing his opponent, one must wonder what he's hiding about his own record.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
The Good and the Bad on Republicans
This week's blog posts will be a series on the US political system and its competing ideologies and groups. Today I dissect Republicans.
The Good
"Many" Republicans have, or at least sometimes have, an inherent distrust of increasing governmental power and raising taxes. "Many" Republicans tend to trust the private sector for solutions and have faith in the "invisible hand" of Adam Smith that private sector evolution will solve all problems over time with economic growth. Thus they have an inherent bias towards economic freedom, supporting free use of private property.
"Many" Republicans tend to favor conservative, slow evolution of social values and reject actions by government to impose social values on free people. Just leave us alone, they would say. They like to override states in this context.
"Many" Republicans tend to favor governmental power in the context of promoting the commercial system, including money and credit. They like to override state laws in this context and favor national solutions in this context.
"Many" Republicans favor a strong military and a strong US to project power over the world to promote freedom; they distrust treaties and leftwing dictators and Communists. They distrust leftist governments in general.
"Most" Republicans oppose using governmental power to increase power of labor unions. For example, they support the current secret union ballot requirement over "card check", which would permit union goons to extort public 'yes' votes from individuals.
"Most" Republicans think much of governmental bureaucracy is a colossal waste of money and creates massive "red tape" that hampers economic development.
"Most" Republicans believe the US is a force of good in the world.
Historically, many of the greatest US presidents and political leaders were, or would have been, Republicans: Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan. To the extent Whigs are a predecessor of Republicans, Henry Clay could be counted in the Republican camp.
Enough ... you get the general drift.
The Bad
"Most" Republicans are wimps. They just aren't willing to fight to the end for their "values" They cave in and go along with proposals that sell out their principals. The most famous recent case is George H. W. Bush breaking his public promise and raising taxes. The inability of Republicans to beat Democrats in many, many elections that end up in recounts and courts again illustrates their spineless character. The Democrats break rules, and do anything to win; Republican operatives tend to want to play by the rules, hence they lose. Figuratively, one should prefer a Democrat in a foxhole in combat over a Republican.
Most Republicans seem unable to empathize with the truly needy on a national level. They ignore them, while looking to examples of abuse by fakers in gaming the system. A Republican would tell a poor person who has worked hard for his/her entire life and paid taxes for years, but now suffering a string of bad luck, to "pull himself up by his bootstraps". But have you every thought about that cliche? It's a parody - not real: try it sometimes with a real boot. All you accomplish is pulling yourself to the ground to collapse.
"Most" Republicans seem to disbelieve that government can help the national economy improve. They object to taxes for national improvements in a knee jerk fashion, conveniently forgetting the national Interstate highway system built in mid 20th century ... and the building of the national rail networks in the 19th century, both done with government support. Is that historical stupidity or ?
They object to governmental regulation or intervention in financial markets. They say, 'just let the chips fall' and it will all come out better. Hmm ... that worked great in the "flash crash" and in the Panic of 2008 when all money market funds and corporate commercial paper markets were in danger of collapse. "Most" Republicans support policies that favor financial Vikings over the common investor.
They tend to favor those with Money over those without Money in the use of governmental power. Using courts to collect debts is good, but using courts for debt relief is bad. Lenders can lie in courts and get a free pass; borrowers are to be punished for similar acts.
"Most" Republicans tend to oppose maximal personal freedom with regard to "social" or "family values" issues.
"Most" Republicans tend to believe big corporations are generally a force for good for the people and economic development; they ignore massive corporate dislocations and malfeasance: shipping jobs overseas, gross overpayment of the executive suite, huge corporate tax loopholes (really barn doors!).
"Most" Republicans favor the corporation over the union in labor issues. The third class in this battle - the people - are ignored. "Most" Republicans favor the CEOs & management in corporate governance, to the detriment of shareholder power.
"Most" Republicans tend to favor increases in governmental power for "crime" control and "security"; they do not give much weight to personal liberty or privacy in this conflict.
"Most" Republicans tend to favor right wing dictators over left wing dictators who might confiscate multinational corporate property; They tend to favor using governmental power (even via IMF-World Bank) in third world nations to shift property from government to the "private sector", viz., multinational corporations or (corrupt) national private interests.
"Most" Republicans ignore or "brush under the rug" or overtly support US policy around the world that does or tends to enrich its multinational corporations and private persons: they favor economic imperialism for private ends.
"Most" Republicans want no restrictions at all on the growth and power of the wealthy: they seem to positively ignore that such power and wealth is used to corrupt government into granting them more power & wealth. Historical and current evidence of that tendency is ignored.
Conclusion
The doctrine of "most" Republicans fails in both its historicity and in protecting life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness for all the people. The best one can say is that it does not failure completely. There is some good in it, but much bad.
That's enough. Tomorrow I dissect Democrats.
Word of the Day
"Subsume" - verb [$10]
Subsume means to place in a more comprehensive category.
Sentence: This week's blog series will attempt to elevate our current political debates from the level of a football game, and subsume them into broad philosophical context that, I hope, will make a solution obvious. Often phasing the question correctly makes an answer obvious.
The Good
"Many" Republicans have, or at least sometimes have, an inherent distrust of increasing governmental power and raising taxes. "Many" Republicans tend to trust the private sector for solutions and have faith in the "invisible hand" of Adam Smith that private sector evolution will solve all problems over time with economic growth. Thus they have an inherent bias towards economic freedom, supporting free use of private property.
"Many" Republicans tend to favor conservative, slow evolution of social values and reject actions by government to impose social values on free people. Just leave us alone, they would say. They like to override states in this context.
"Many" Republicans tend to favor governmental power in the context of promoting the commercial system, including money and credit. They like to override state laws in this context and favor national solutions in this context.
"Many" Republicans favor a strong military and a strong US to project power over the world to promote freedom; they distrust treaties and leftwing dictators and Communists. They distrust leftist governments in general.
"Most" Republicans oppose using governmental power to increase power of labor unions. For example, they support the current secret union ballot requirement over "card check", which would permit union goons to extort public 'yes' votes from individuals.
"Most" Republicans think much of governmental bureaucracy is a colossal waste of money and creates massive "red tape" that hampers economic development.
"Most" Republicans believe the US is a force of good in the world.
Historically, many of the greatest US presidents and political leaders were, or would have been, Republicans: Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan. To the extent Whigs are a predecessor of Republicans, Henry Clay could be counted in the Republican camp.
Enough ... you get the general drift.
The Bad
"Most" Republicans are wimps. They just aren't willing to fight to the end for their "values" They cave in and go along with proposals that sell out their principals. The most famous recent case is George H. W. Bush breaking his public promise and raising taxes. The inability of Republicans to beat Democrats in many, many elections that end up in recounts and courts again illustrates their spineless character. The Democrats break rules, and do anything to win; Republican operatives tend to want to play by the rules, hence they lose. Figuratively, one should prefer a Democrat in a foxhole in combat over a Republican.
Most Republicans seem unable to empathize with the truly needy on a national level. They ignore them, while looking to examples of abuse by fakers in gaming the system. A Republican would tell a poor person who has worked hard for his/her entire life and paid taxes for years, but now suffering a string of bad luck, to "pull himself up by his bootstraps". But have you every thought about that cliche? It's a parody - not real: try it sometimes with a real boot. All you accomplish is pulling yourself to the ground to collapse.
"Most" Republicans seem to disbelieve that government can help the national economy improve. They object to taxes for national improvements in a knee jerk fashion, conveniently forgetting the national Interstate highway system built in mid 20th century ... and the building of the national rail networks in the 19th century, both done with government support. Is that historical stupidity or ?
They object to governmental regulation or intervention in financial markets. They say, 'just let the chips fall' and it will all come out better. Hmm ... that worked great in the "flash crash" and in the Panic of 2008 when all money market funds and corporate commercial paper markets were in danger of collapse. "Most" Republicans support policies that favor financial Vikings over the common investor.
They tend to favor those with Money over those without Money in the use of governmental power. Using courts to collect debts is good, but using courts for debt relief is bad. Lenders can lie in courts and get a free pass; borrowers are to be punished for similar acts.
"Most" Republicans tend to oppose maximal personal freedom with regard to "social" or "family values" issues.
"Most" Republicans tend to believe big corporations are generally a force for good for the people and economic development; they ignore massive corporate dislocations and malfeasance: shipping jobs overseas, gross overpayment of the executive suite, huge corporate tax loopholes (really barn doors!).
"Most" Republicans favor the corporation over the union in labor issues. The third class in this battle - the people - are ignored. "Most" Republicans favor the CEOs & management in corporate governance, to the detriment of shareholder power.
"Most" Republicans tend to favor increases in governmental power for "crime" control and "security"; they do not give much weight to personal liberty or privacy in this conflict.
"Most" Republicans tend to favor right wing dictators over left wing dictators who might confiscate multinational corporate property; They tend to favor using governmental power (even via IMF-World Bank) in third world nations to shift property from government to the "private sector", viz., multinational corporations or (corrupt) national private interests.
"Most" Republicans ignore or "brush under the rug" or overtly support US policy around the world that does or tends to enrich its multinational corporations and private persons: they favor economic imperialism for private ends.
"Most" Republicans want no restrictions at all on the growth and power of the wealthy: they seem to positively ignore that such power and wealth is used to corrupt government into granting them more power & wealth. Historical and current evidence of that tendency is ignored.
Conclusion
The doctrine of "most" Republicans fails in both its historicity and in protecting life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness for all the people. The best one can say is that it does not failure completely. There is some good in it, but much bad.
That's enough. Tomorrow I dissect Democrats.
Word of the Day
"Subsume" - verb [$10]
Subsume means to place in a more comprehensive category.
Sentence: This week's blog series will attempt to elevate our current political debates from the level of a football game, and subsume them into broad philosophical context that, I hope, will make a solution obvious. Often phasing the question correctly makes an answer obvious.
Friday, November 26, 2010
The Mountain of Cash
The stock rally Wednesday has moved a re-buy of US stocks off the front burner for Krypto Fund. What now?
I wait. I sell when prices are high and buy when they are low. That applies to EVERY asset class. Over the past few months I sold all my TIPS and large amounts of US stocks and all classes of foreign stocks and even gold stocks, as those asset classes rose in value. The money all went to cash - money market funds. The model wants me to buy fixed income bonds, BUT those are in bubble stage, too.
Hence my wait. Waiting even a couple years can pay off quickly. For example, the prices of bonds can easily fall 10% from here, yet the coupons are in the 4% range. Avoiding a 10% or more fall gives a great 2.5 year payback on the cost of waiting (viz., foregoing the 4% yield).
A possible buy looms: the recent large drops in both municipal bonds and 30 year US treasury bonds brings both those asset classes closer to a buy point - 5%. That's my long term investment minimum goal. Why buy bonds that yield less than that & lock in a losing investment? Just wait. The buys will come, maybe later this year if the economy begins the faster growth as I expect.
Waiting and sitting can pay well. Patience, grasshopper.
Word of the Day
"Antinomy" noun [$10]
Antinomy means 1. a contradiction between two beliefs or conclusions that are in themseles reasonable; a paradox; 2. a conflict between two laws of authorities.
Sentence: For investing, the antinomy of buy and sell both being bad choices is resolved by wait - doing nothing. Let time and volatility provide a better investment action.
I wait. I sell when prices are high and buy when they are low. That applies to EVERY asset class. Over the past few months I sold all my TIPS and large amounts of US stocks and all classes of foreign stocks and even gold stocks, as those asset classes rose in value. The money all went to cash - money market funds. The model wants me to buy fixed income bonds, BUT those are in bubble stage, too.
Hence my wait. Waiting even a couple years can pay off quickly. For example, the prices of bonds can easily fall 10% from here, yet the coupons are in the 4% range. Avoiding a 10% or more fall gives a great 2.5 year payback on the cost of waiting (viz., foregoing the 4% yield).
A possible buy looms: the recent large drops in both municipal bonds and 30 year US treasury bonds brings both those asset classes closer to a buy point - 5%. That's my long term investment minimum goal. Why buy bonds that yield less than that & lock in a losing investment? Just wait. The buys will come, maybe later this year if the economy begins the faster growth as I expect.
Waiting and sitting can pay well. Patience, grasshopper.
Word of the Day
"Antinomy" noun [$10]
Antinomy means 1. a contradiction between two beliefs or conclusions that are in themseles reasonable; a paradox; 2. a conflict between two laws of authorities.
Sentence: For investing, the antinomy of buy and sell both being bad choices is resolved by wait - doing nothing. Let time and volatility provide a better investment action.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Happy Thanksgiving!
Bunkerman wishes for all people a Happy Thanksgiving. This day is special to Americans as a day to appreciate all we have and all we can be. And by "all" I mean everything tangible and intangible. The Wall Street Journal publishes a very meaningful pair of editorials every Thanksgiving, which I always try to remember to read. Here they are in full:
***quote begins***
The Desolate Wilderness
Here beginneth the chronicle of those memorable circumstances of the year 1620, as recorded by Nathaniel Morton, keeper of the records of Plymouth Colony, based on the account of William Bradford, sometime governor thereof:
So they left that goodly and pleasant city of Leyden, which had been their resting-place for above eleven years, but they knew that they were pilgrims and strangers here below, and looked not much on these things, but lifted up their eyes to Heaven, their dearest country, where God hath prepared for them a city (Heb. XI, 16), and therein quieted their spirits.
When they came to Delfs-Haven they found the ship and all things ready, and such of their friends as could not come with them followed after them, and sundry came from Amsterdam to see them shipt, and to take their leaves of them. One night was spent with little sleep with the most, but with friendly entertainment and Christian discourse, and other real expressions of true Christian love.
The next day they went on board, and their friends with them, where truly doleful was the sight of that sad and mournful parting, to hear what sighs and sobs and prayers did sound amongst them; what tears did gush from every eye, and pithy speeches pierced each other's heart, that sundry of the Dutch strangers that stood on the Key as spectators could not refrain from tears. But the tide (which stays for no man) calling them away, that were thus loath to depart, their Reverend Pastor, falling down on his knees, and they all with him, with watery cheeks commended them with the most fervent prayers unto the Lord and His blessing; and then with mutual embraces and many tears they took their leaves one of another, which proved to be the last leave to many of them.
Being now passed the vast ocean, and a sea of troubles before them in expectations, they had now no friends to welcome them, no inns to entertain or refresh them, no houses, or much less towns, to repair unto to seek for succour; and for the season it was winter, and they that know the winters of the country know them to be sharp and violent, subject to cruel and fierce storms, dangerous to travel to known places, much more to search unknown coasts.
Besides, what could they see but a hideous and desolate wilderness, full of wilde beasts and wilde men? and what multitudes of them there were, they then knew not: for which way soever they turned their eyes (save upward to Heaven) they could have but little solace or content in respect of any outward object; for summer being ended, all things stand in appearance with a weatherbeaten face, and the whole country, full of woods and thickets, represented a wild and savage hew.
If they looked behind them, there was a mighty ocean which they had passed, and was now as a main bar or gulph to separate them from all the civil parts of the world.
This editorial has appeared annually since 1961.
And the Fair Land
Any one whose labors take him into the far reaches of the country, as ours lately have done, is bound to mark how the years have made the land grow fruitful.
This is indeed a big country, a rich country, in a way no array of figures can measure and so in a way past belief of those who have not seen it. Even those who journey through its Northeastern complex, into the Southern lands, across the central plains and to its Western slopes can only glimpse a measure of the bounty of America.
And a traveler cannot but be struck on his journey by the thought that this country, one day, can be even greater. America, though many know it not, is one of the great underdeveloped countries of the world; what it reaches for exceeds by far what it has grasped.
So the visitor returns thankful for much of what he has seen, and, in spite of everything, an optimist about what his country might be. Yet the visitor, if he is to make an honest report, must also note the air of unease that hangs everywhere.
For the traveler, as travelers have been always, is as much questioned as questioning. And for all the abundance he sees, he finds the questions put to him ask where men may repair for succor from the troubles that beset them.
His countrymen cannot forget the savage face of war. Too often they have been asked to fight in strange and distant places, for no clear purpose they could see and for no accomplishment they can measure. Their spirits are not quieted by the thought that the good and pleasant bounty that surrounds them can be destroyed in an instant by a single bomb. Yet they find no escape, for their survival and comfort now depend on unpredictable strangers in far-off corners of the globe.
How can they turn from melancholy when at home they see young arrayed against old, black against white, neighbor against neighbor, so that they stand in peril of social discord. Or not despair when they see that the cities and countryside are in need of repair, yet find themselves threatened by scarcities of the resources that sustain their way of life. Or when, in the face of these challenges, they turn for leadership to men in high places -- only to find those men as frail as any others.
So sometimes the traveler is asked whence will come their succor. What is to preserve their abundance, or even their civility? How can they pass on to their children a nation as strong and free as the one they inherited from their forefathers? How is their country to endure these cruel storms that beset it from without and from within?
Of course the stranger cannot quiet their spirits. For it is true that everywhere men turn their eyes today much of the world has a truly wild and savage hue. No man, if he be truthful, can say that the specter of war is banished. Nor can he say that when men or communities are put upon their own resources they are sure of solace; nor be sure that men of diverse kinds and diverse views can live peaceably together in a time of troubles.
But we can all remind ourselves that the richness of this country was not born in the resources of the earth, though they be plentiful, but in the men that took its measure. For that reminder is everywhere -- in the cities, towns, farms, roads, factories, homes, hospitals, schools that spread everywhere over that wilderness.
We can remind ourselves that for all our social discord we yet remain the longest enduring society of free men governing themselves without benefit of kings or dictators. Being so, we are the marvel and the mystery of the world, for that enduring liberty is no less a blessing than the abundance of the earth.
And we might remind ourselves also, that if those men setting out from Delftshaven had been daunted by the troubles they saw around them, then we could not this autumn be thankful for a fair land.
This editorial has appeared annually since 1961.
***quote ends***
And let me say this most strongly: it's Thanksgiving, not "Turkey Day".
A Favorite Food
Try buttercup squash - it's the best of all varieties of squash by far. Just cook it, remove the meat, mash and eat. No sugar or other flavoring is necessary. To distinguish it from butternut squash, just remember, "brown is bad". Buttercup squash is green and shaped a bit like a flattish cupcake. It's PLU# is 4758 [PLU = Price Look-Up].
Word of the Day
"Collation" - noun [$10]
Collation means 1. the act or instance of collating; 2.a. (Roman Church) a light mean allowed during a fast; 2.b. a light informal meal.
Sentence: No doubt, but that a Thanksgiving meal is no collation!
***quote begins***
The Desolate Wilderness
Here beginneth the chronicle of those memorable circumstances of the year 1620, as recorded by Nathaniel Morton, keeper of the records of Plymouth Colony, based on the account of William Bradford, sometime governor thereof:
So they left that goodly and pleasant city of Leyden, which had been their resting-place for above eleven years, but they knew that they were pilgrims and strangers here below, and looked not much on these things, but lifted up their eyes to Heaven, their dearest country, where God hath prepared for them a city (Heb. XI, 16), and therein quieted their spirits.
When they came to Delfs-Haven they found the ship and all things ready, and such of their friends as could not come with them followed after them, and sundry came from Amsterdam to see them shipt, and to take their leaves of them. One night was spent with little sleep with the most, but with friendly entertainment and Christian discourse, and other real expressions of true Christian love.
The next day they went on board, and their friends with them, where truly doleful was the sight of that sad and mournful parting, to hear what sighs and sobs and prayers did sound amongst them; what tears did gush from every eye, and pithy speeches pierced each other's heart, that sundry of the Dutch strangers that stood on the Key as spectators could not refrain from tears. But the tide (which stays for no man) calling them away, that were thus loath to depart, their Reverend Pastor, falling down on his knees, and they all with him, with watery cheeks commended them with the most fervent prayers unto the Lord and His blessing; and then with mutual embraces and many tears they took their leaves one of another, which proved to be the last leave to many of them.
Being now passed the vast ocean, and a sea of troubles before them in expectations, they had now no friends to welcome them, no inns to entertain or refresh them, no houses, or much less towns, to repair unto to seek for succour; and for the season it was winter, and they that know the winters of the country know them to be sharp and violent, subject to cruel and fierce storms, dangerous to travel to known places, much more to search unknown coasts.
Besides, what could they see but a hideous and desolate wilderness, full of wilde beasts and wilde men? and what multitudes of them there were, they then knew not: for which way soever they turned their eyes (save upward to Heaven) they could have but little solace or content in respect of any outward object; for summer being ended, all things stand in appearance with a weatherbeaten face, and the whole country, full of woods and thickets, represented a wild and savage hew.
If they looked behind them, there was a mighty ocean which they had passed, and was now as a main bar or gulph to separate them from all the civil parts of the world.
This editorial has appeared annually since 1961.
And the Fair Land
Any one whose labors take him into the far reaches of the country, as ours lately have done, is bound to mark how the years have made the land grow fruitful.
This is indeed a big country, a rich country, in a way no array of figures can measure and so in a way past belief of those who have not seen it. Even those who journey through its Northeastern complex, into the Southern lands, across the central plains and to its Western slopes can only glimpse a measure of the bounty of America.
And a traveler cannot but be struck on his journey by the thought that this country, one day, can be even greater. America, though many know it not, is one of the great underdeveloped countries of the world; what it reaches for exceeds by far what it has grasped.
So the visitor returns thankful for much of what he has seen, and, in spite of everything, an optimist about what his country might be. Yet the visitor, if he is to make an honest report, must also note the air of unease that hangs everywhere.
For the traveler, as travelers have been always, is as much questioned as questioning. And for all the abundance he sees, he finds the questions put to him ask where men may repair for succor from the troubles that beset them.
His countrymen cannot forget the savage face of war. Too often they have been asked to fight in strange and distant places, for no clear purpose they could see and for no accomplishment they can measure. Their spirits are not quieted by the thought that the good and pleasant bounty that surrounds them can be destroyed in an instant by a single bomb. Yet they find no escape, for their survival and comfort now depend on unpredictable strangers in far-off corners of the globe.
How can they turn from melancholy when at home they see young arrayed against old, black against white, neighbor against neighbor, so that they stand in peril of social discord. Or not despair when they see that the cities and countryside are in need of repair, yet find themselves threatened by scarcities of the resources that sustain their way of life. Or when, in the face of these challenges, they turn for leadership to men in high places -- only to find those men as frail as any others.
So sometimes the traveler is asked whence will come their succor. What is to preserve their abundance, or even their civility? How can they pass on to their children a nation as strong and free as the one they inherited from their forefathers? How is their country to endure these cruel storms that beset it from without and from within?
Of course the stranger cannot quiet their spirits. For it is true that everywhere men turn their eyes today much of the world has a truly wild and savage hue. No man, if he be truthful, can say that the specter of war is banished. Nor can he say that when men or communities are put upon their own resources they are sure of solace; nor be sure that men of diverse kinds and diverse views can live peaceably together in a time of troubles.
But we can all remind ourselves that the richness of this country was not born in the resources of the earth, though they be plentiful, but in the men that took its measure. For that reminder is everywhere -- in the cities, towns, farms, roads, factories, homes, hospitals, schools that spread everywhere over that wilderness.
We can remind ourselves that for all our social discord we yet remain the longest enduring society of free men governing themselves without benefit of kings or dictators. Being so, we are the marvel and the mystery of the world, for that enduring liberty is no less a blessing than the abundance of the earth.
And we might remind ourselves also, that if those men setting out from Delftshaven had been daunted by the troubles they saw around them, then we could not this autumn be thankful for a fair land.
This editorial has appeared annually since 1961.
***quote ends***
And let me say this most strongly: it's Thanksgiving, not "Turkey Day".
A Favorite Food
Try buttercup squash - it's the best of all varieties of squash by far. Just cook it, remove the meat, mash and eat. No sugar or other flavoring is necessary. To distinguish it from butternut squash, just remember, "brown is bad". Buttercup squash is green and shaped a bit like a flattish cupcake. It's PLU# is 4758 [PLU = Price Look-Up].
Word of the Day
"Collation" - noun [$10]
Collation means 1. the act or instance of collating; 2.a. (Roman Church) a light mean allowed during a fast; 2.b. a light informal meal.
Sentence: No doubt, but that a Thanksgiving meal is no collation!
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
FBI
The press reports the FBI raided the offices of three hedge funds yesterday. I'll wait to read the details on whether this is a real investigation or a scalphunting expedition. Some people automatically trust the FBI. If one has been paying attention for the past thirty years, you can find well researched books that show such trust MAY or MAY NOT be deserved. It all depends on the character of the investigators and their bosses and bosses' bosses, etc.
Here are three books which I've read on this subject: two were written by former agents about successful operations, and one was written by a noted newspaper columnist and radio commentator.
The Good Guys: How We Turned the FBI 'Round - and Finally Broke the Mob [Paperback] Jules Bonavolonta (Author) - this is an excellent account how a few good FBI men corrected multi-decadal FBI negligence caused by J. Edgar Hoover's incompetence or corruption.
Operation Solo: The FBI's Man in the Kremlin [Paperback]John Barron (Author) - this book is a fine, dramatic account of the super-successful FBI penetration of the highest levels of the Soviet Union.
The Brothers Bulger: How They Terrorized and Corrupted Boston for a Quarter Century [Mass Market Paperback] Howie Carr (Author) - Included in this book about political corruption and gangsters at the highest levels of State and Federal government is how the Boston FBI office was actually part of the gangster operations to the extent of condoning murders. The head agent is now in prison for life.
What to Do? Read the details of these hedge fund investigations and try to sift spin from reality. Do not unreservedly trust the investigators. Think - does the story make sense beyond a superficial glance.
Actions
Still waiting for a drop to the 1150-1160 area to re-buy US stocks that were sold around 1225.
Word of the Day
"Subrogate" - verb [$10]
Subrogate means to put in place of another [X is subrogated to the rights of Y].
Sentence: Don't subrogate your own critical thinking to institutional propaganda: be skeptical of government and its investigations.
Here are three books which I've read on this subject: two were written by former agents about successful operations, and one was written by a noted newspaper columnist and radio commentator.
The Good Guys: How We Turned the FBI 'Round - and Finally Broke the Mob [Paperback] Jules Bonavolonta (Author) - this is an excellent account how a few good FBI men corrected multi-decadal FBI negligence caused by J. Edgar Hoover's incompetence or corruption.
Operation Solo: The FBI's Man in the Kremlin [Paperback]John Barron (Author) - this book is a fine, dramatic account of the super-successful FBI penetration of the highest levels of the Soviet Union.
The Brothers Bulger: How They Terrorized and Corrupted Boston for a Quarter Century [Mass Market Paperback] Howie Carr (Author) - Included in this book about political corruption and gangsters at the highest levels of State and Federal government is how the Boston FBI office was actually part of the gangster operations to the extent of condoning murders. The head agent is now in prison for life.
What to Do? Read the details of these hedge fund investigations and try to sift spin from reality. Do not unreservedly trust the investigators. Think - does the story make sense beyond a superficial glance.
Actions
Still waiting for a drop to the 1150-1160 area to re-buy US stocks that were sold around 1225.
Word of the Day
"Subrogate" - verb [$10]
Subrogate means to put in place of another [X is subrogated to the rights of Y].
Sentence: Don't subrogate your own critical thinking to institutional propaganda: be skeptical of government and its investigations.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Long Term Investing
The Krypto Fund is the name that I use for all our long term investments: IRAs, 401Ks, and all long term, taxable accounts. On February 10, 2007 I first described how it is managed in this blog, and have written about its style a few other times. From recent comments, obviously I need to repeat and update this management style.
For 2010, the Krypto Fund is up about 12% year-to-date - pretty good compared to the averages & hedge fund averages. Krypto Fund contains almost all index funds in different asset classes. I use canonical allocation percentages and manage around those benchmarks. I do adjust them as I age.
The canonical allocations NOW are this:
25% US stocks,
20% foreign stocks,
15% real estate funds,
25% fixed income bonds,
5% inflation-protected bonds,
5% gold & silver,
5% cash.
Since I think inflation protected bonds and fixed income bonds are greatly overvalued in bubble regions, the actual allocations NOW are 20% fixed income bonds, 0% inflation protected bonds and 15% cash with other asset classes at canonical percentages.
I use a spreadsheet to compute the asset class %'s, usually weekly based on Friday's prices.
US stock funds are Vanguard Total Market Fund, the corresponding exchange traded fund (ticker VTI), or the CREF Stock Account. [Mrs. Bunkerman was a scientist, so her retirement savings from work went to TIAA-CREF funds. Their "Stock Account" has some foreign stocks, so I reallocate these in the spreadsheet based on annual percentage components].
Foreign stocks are Vanguard Pacific Index, European Index and Emerging Markets Index Funds (& corresponding ETFs) - I allocate 1/3 of the total foreign stocks component to each, hence these are really 6.66% of total Krypto Fund each. Included here for total asset class calculations are the re-allocated CREF foreign stock amounts in correct proportions.
The real estate asset class is the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund and the TIAA-CREF Real Estate Fund.
The fixed income bonds are the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, various Long term municipal bonds, the TIAA traditional fixed income account, and the cash value of an old whole life insurance policy.
The inflation-protected bonds are Vanguard or TIAA-CREF inflation-protected bond funds, as appropriate.
Gold & silver are mostly American Eagle gold coins and silver bullion bars, plus ETFs for gold & silver (tickers are GLD and SLV, respectively), and the Vanguard Precious Metals Fund.
The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund invests in REIT stocks, by the way, while the TIAA-CREF Real Estate Fund invests in actual buildings, etc., so they perform somewhat differently. Both are a bit leveraged, so I keep that asset class at 15%, rather than the 20% which would be appropriate for unleveraged real estate.
The spreadsheet computes the % size of each asset class each week. IF an asset class is more than 5% off its target percentage, I look to reallocate some funds to top it off if it's low or take some out if it's too large. For example, if the US stocks are over 26.25% of the total Krypto Fund, that's 5% off the target 25%. So I look to see what's low & move the excess 1.25% to other asset classes. One has to consider fund restrictions and taxes for frequent moves, but since we have multiple accounts, I have always been able to figure out a way to reallocate. See David Swenson's great book, "Unconventional Success" for a description of why this type of personal investing works well.
I have done long-term investing along this strategy for over 20 years. When I read his book, I was happy to see he agreed with me (joke haha) and I learned about the value of the inflation-protected bonds. So I added that asset class. I also recently became more aware of the leveraged in the real estate classes, so cut it back. I'm not perfect and continue to make changes as I see a need.
I also adjusted my rebalancing trigger to 5% from 10%, as I realized from his book I had been missing many good re-balancing opportunities with a 10% trigger. My percentages were pretty close to his, otherwise. Also, I have some gold & silver for many reasons.
On down moves, I make the re-allocations on the first 5%, BUT if another 5% adjustment is called for because of a down move, I wait awhile. Down moves can be fast & furious, and it's better to let the dust settle. This helped me alot in 2008 and 2009 to get more buying of stocks closer to the lows. In addition, for stocks, once the indices hit intermediate term highs, I make adjustments in them more frequently to keep the %'s close to canonical levels. This "buy-low, sell-high" and "sell high, buy low" intermediate term trading tactic lowers volatility and increases returns to help me stay fully invested at all times.
If some asset class is low, BUT is greatly overvalued, I put sale proceeds into cash as a buffer. Then when the low class readjusts to a more fair valuation, I buy it. This is the case with fixed income bonds and inflation-protected bonds now.
I love that name, The Krypto Fund. I like to think my dog, Krypto, pushes the computer key every week to do the reallocation. She accepts dog biscuits as payment. :-)
This investment methods works well: the Krypto Fund is at all time highs, even though the US stock market is almost 20% below its all time high. That buy-low, sell high and sell high, buy low asset allocation tactic worked well through the Panic of 2008 and the lows of 2009.
Word of the Day
"Quotidian" - adjective [$10]
Quotidian means something occurring daily.
Sentence: Krypto Fund rebalancing is NOT quotidian; I check it weekly, but often a month or more can pass before a change is made.
For 2010, the Krypto Fund is up about 12% year-to-date - pretty good compared to the averages & hedge fund averages. Krypto Fund contains almost all index funds in different asset classes. I use canonical allocation percentages and manage around those benchmarks. I do adjust them as I age.
The canonical allocations NOW are this:
25% US stocks,
20% foreign stocks,
15% real estate funds,
25% fixed income bonds,
5% inflation-protected bonds,
5% gold & silver,
5% cash.
Since I think inflation protected bonds and fixed income bonds are greatly overvalued in bubble regions, the actual allocations NOW are 20% fixed income bonds, 0% inflation protected bonds and 15% cash with other asset classes at canonical percentages.
I use a spreadsheet to compute the asset class %'s, usually weekly based on Friday's prices.
US stock funds are Vanguard Total Market Fund, the corresponding exchange traded fund (ticker VTI), or the CREF Stock Account. [Mrs. Bunkerman was a scientist, so her retirement savings from work went to TIAA-CREF funds. Their "Stock Account" has some foreign stocks, so I reallocate these in the spreadsheet based on annual percentage components].
Foreign stocks are Vanguard Pacific Index, European Index and Emerging Markets Index Funds (& corresponding ETFs) - I allocate 1/3 of the total foreign stocks component to each, hence these are really 6.66% of total Krypto Fund each. Included here for total asset class calculations are the re-allocated CREF foreign stock amounts in correct proportions.
The real estate asset class is the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund and the TIAA-CREF Real Estate Fund.
The fixed income bonds are the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, various Long term municipal bonds, the TIAA traditional fixed income account, and the cash value of an old whole life insurance policy.
The inflation-protected bonds are Vanguard or TIAA-CREF inflation-protected bond funds, as appropriate.
Gold & silver are mostly American Eagle gold coins and silver bullion bars, plus ETFs for gold & silver (tickers are GLD and SLV, respectively), and the Vanguard Precious Metals Fund.
The Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund invests in REIT stocks, by the way, while the TIAA-CREF Real Estate Fund invests in actual buildings, etc., so they perform somewhat differently. Both are a bit leveraged, so I keep that asset class at 15%, rather than the 20% which would be appropriate for unleveraged real estate.
The spreadsheet computes the % size of each asset class each week. IF an asset class is more than 5% off its target percentage, I look to reallocate some funds to top it off if it's low or take some out if it's too large. For example, if the US stocks are over 26.25% of the total Krypto Fund, that's 5% off the target 25%. So I look to see what's low & move the excess 1.25% to other asset classes. One has to consider fund restrictions and taxes for frequent moves, but since we have multiple accounts, I have always been able to figure out a way to reallocate. See David Swenson's great book, "Unconventional Success" for a description of why this type of personal investing works well.
I have done long-term investing along this strategy for over 20 years. When I read his book, I was happy to see he agreed with me (joke haha) and I learned about the value of the inflation-protected bonds. So I added that asset class. I also recently became more aware of the leveraged in the real estate classes, so cut it back. I'm not perfect and continue to make changes as I see a need.
I also adjusted my rebalancing trigger to 5% from 10%, as I realized from his book I had been missing many good re-balancing opportunities with a 10% trigger. My percentages were pretty close to his, otherwise. Also, I have some gold & silver for many reasons.
On down moves, I make the re-allocations on the first 5%, BUT if another 5% adjustment is called for because of a down move, I wait awhile. Down moves can be fast & furious, and it's better to let the dust settle. This helped me alot in 2008 and 2009 to get more buying of stocks closer to the lows. In addition, for stocks, once the indices hit intermediate term highs, I make adjustments in them more frequently to keep the %'s close to canonical levels. This "buy-low, sell-high" and "sell high, buy low" intermediate term trading tactic lowers volatility and increases returns to help me stay fully invested at all times.
If some asset class is low, BUT is greatly overvalued, I put sale proceeds into cash as a buffer. Then when the low class readjusts to a more fair valuation, I buy it. This is the case with fixed income bonds and inflation-protected bonds now.
I love that name, The Krypto Fund. I like to think my dog, Krypto, pushes the computer key every week to do the reallocation. She accepts dog biscuits as payment. :-)
This investment methods works well: the Krypto Fund is at all time highs, even though the US stock market is almost 20% below its all time high. That buy-low, sell high and sell high, buy low asset allocation tactic worked well through the Panic of 2008 and the lows of 2009.
Word of the Day
"Quotidian" - adjective [$10]
Quotidian means something occurring daily.
Sentence: Krypto Fund rebalancing is NOT quotidian; I check it weekly, but often a month or more can pass before a change is made.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Friday = Saturday
I am declaring today a holiday, or perhaps a time translation merging Friday into Saturday. Or am I influenced by intense advanced waves from Saturday that my mind now has been taken over by the state function that it will have on Saturday morning?
LOL.
In any case, my post today will simply be a link to the text of Battleship Ben's speech today in Europe (which I listened to), explaining the problems caused by nations that undervalue currencies.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101119a.htm
I guess Ben reads this blog. It's time for Asia nations to develop domestic demand and get off our back!
Word of the Day
"Profundity" - noun [$10]; Profound - adjective [$10]
Profound means having to showing great quality or insight.
Profundity means the state or quality of being profound.
Sentence: The immense profundity of Battleship Ben's speech today crushes his pipsqueak critics, who are shown to be simpleminded fools with no insights.
LOL.
In any case, my post today will simply be a link to the text of Battleship Ben's speech today in Europe (which I listened to), explaining the problems caused by nations that undervalue currencies.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101119a.htm
I guess Ben reads this blog. It's time for Asia nations to develop domestic demand and get off our back!
Word of the Day
"Profundity" - noun [$10]; Profound - adjective [$10]
Profound means having to showing great quality or insight.
Profundity means the state or quality of being profound.
Sentence: The immense profundity of Battleship Ben's speech today crushes his pipsqueak critics, who are shown to be simpleminded fools with no insights.
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