Friday, April 13, 2007

Markets

The PPI number will be important today, but Tuesday's CPI number is more important. I thought yesterday's unemployment claims were a little high. If that persists a few weeks we might see more softness that will keep the Fed in its cage.

There has been some modest liquidation in some commodities recently: corn, soybeans, cocoa, cattle (ugh! on that one). Some justified, some not vs. fundamentals. I'm not sure what it means ... yet ... if anything.

India was strong overnight, up 2% on the BSE Sensex.

Energy stocks have a tiger in their tank lately. XLE is at all-time highs. As these stocks correct violently when the beefers sell/rotate, I am contemplating a XLE short hedge sometime. I am holding my energy stocks long-term, so would use the hedge instead of selling. No decision on when or where. Just thinking.

Often when I start thinking how much money I am making in stocks, that signals a top. I've been fighting those thoughts, but that does creep in once in a while. I am building a mental wall to keep those dangerous thoughts out. I just thought I would mention it. I don't think it's a "little birdie signal" yet.

Sure looks like gasoline will go to all-time highs this summer. I'll be surprised if it doesn't.

PS: Good core PPI number. Now we need next week's core CPI to follow.

13 comments:

  1. that INFY worked nicely even though guidance was below jay's expectations (just a tad).

    all out. 100% cash and ready for a weekend

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  2. did i hear this guy say rush doesnt put his foot in his mouth like Imus?

    i have a question for this dude. can i buy some of what your smoking.

    "values over profits"

    lololololol

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  3. USD 81 handle

    ppi rofl, nice massage

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  4. Rush sure had foot-in-mouth disease when he was on drugs.

    And on the Monday Night football gig.

    I never listen to him anymore - worthless.

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  5. consumer expectations of inflation ramping.

    reality becoming perception?

    3.3% my eye, multiply that time pie

    :-)

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  6. covered my shorts. seems like u have to on every decent rinse.

    after the shorts and INFY long, i shud work away right now.

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  7. Just got my Form 2210 done to prove I owe no penalty or interest. What a complex form! I wrote a spreadsheet a couple years ago, but inputng the numbers is a lot of work.

    Last to do is fill out the state form.

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  8. That's bull market action, Mern. Real buyers do it on the dips ;-)

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  9. big positive stoch divg, positive NNI

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  10. but if im buying the dips, ie covering shorts, doesnt that make me a virtual seller?

    ;-)

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  11. Mern, you are so virtual that you can't be measured ;-)

    Your selling is a virtual seller and your covering is a virtual buyer. You are your own anti-particle ;-)

    Uh, that's "virtual", not "virtuous" ;-)

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  12. lol.

    Have a good weekend.

    I finally got my taxes done. Whew!

    ReplyDelete