The double voodoo spell I cast last week is working, producing a reasonable pullback from the extended stock prices of last week. The S&P 500 has a broad base of support in the 850-870 area so buyers on the sidelines might step up their IF news does not turn to the worse. If one glosses over the Obama V move down & up in a few weeks around March 1, the market is really in a huge, long term base since last fall. Small stocks & banks have led. Why ?
That's easy. Those companies were being priced for BK. We now now most of those BKs will not occur as the junk bond market is open again. Companies with cash flow can refinance.
Bears are being bolder now, making strident calls for more doom. Some of these calls are quite stupid. Roubini writes that the Chinese yuan will become a "reserve" currency sooner than expected. I guess he doesn't read this blog. I destroyed that prospect a couple weeks ago in my series on "World Reserve Currency".
I will spend some time today going over charts and news on my Obama Fund stocks. I plan to slowly add to some of those positions to raise the fund's leverage back to 150% long. My thinking is that by mid-summer, the recession will be obviously ending and investors will start pricing in much better 2010 earnings prospects. I might cull some non-performers, too.
No rush, though. This pullback might run a few more days. Option expiration is Friday and the traders like to play games then.
Word of the Day
"Salubrious" - adjective [$10]
Salubrious means favorable to or promoting health or well-being.
Sentence: Like a couple glasses of red wine for the adult physiology, intermittent modest pullbacks are quite salubrious for a bull market. And again similarly, both excessive wine consumption and large pullbacks are bad.
Le Mot du Jour
"Voilà" - an exclamation; and its complement, "Voici"
Voilà means this/that/those/there/here is/are. Voici means expressly this/these/here is/are. As you can see, one uses voici when one expressly wants to indicate something nearby or close in some way. Voilà can be used for both if no distinction is needed.
La Phrase: Voilà le repli des valeurs que j'attendais.
Sentence: This is the pullback of stock prices that I was waiting for.
Bman...how does the recession end this summer when states like CA have a 51% drop in April sales tax revenues over April 09? What will happen to make this turn in a few months?
ReplyDeleteoops ...over April 08
ReplyDeletei read that roubini piece.........hilarious......and nonsense
ReplyDeletewe haven't heard much about the uptick rule lately...........this market better stop goin down........else the cry-babies will start whining again
ReplyDeletecompanies cashin out..they must think its the top...so why are we buyin?...A wise man once said.."one of these days buying the bad news is going to sound silly"...lol
ReplyDeleteMay 13, 2009 4:07 PM
Bunkerman said...
hmmm companies track record is like wrong way Corrigan.
They bought stock at high prices and are now issuing.
Which time were / are they right ?
different times......you said they bought stock so insiders could sell...made sense.....today they're doing it to survive...if they thought they could get $10 more ..they would hold they line wouldnt they?....a company that issues 25% doesnt bother you?
t2108 88..your a longterm holder...why would you even consider adding at an overbought condition?
sorry t2108 80
ReplyDeletewhere are you right now Bman ? less than 100% long.......you sold alot this week ?
ReplyDeletelong term long only investing indeed
i hope president moon-cricket is closely studying CA
ReplyDeletean example of an over-taxed over-regulated state........it's a welfare state........millions of darkies sucking the bloated state budget
a failed state......CA or USA ?? or both ??
The panic cutbacks have stopped, people spend a bit fro deferred demand and the drop ends. That's an end to the recession, meaning things stop getting worse.
ReplyDeleteare people on cnbc retarded?
ReplyDeletejobless claims fell off a cliff in the last 6 months...if that rate of change continued at a similar pace the world would have ended by now....so now a small retreat in jobless claims is a "green chute"?
dead cat indeed....
the man on the street is hurting badly....and its not improving.....
The roads in retail areas seem crowded here. I suppose a bear could say everyone is out looking for a job ...
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese/Japanese place I buy sushi at twice a week had quite a few tables full on Monday. That was a big change from a few months ago.
there is nuthin 'salubrious' about yesterday's pullback...........it emboldens the bears ......and then the stampede of panic-selling resumes
ReplyDeleteBud your boy Jim Iorio is another moron....
ReplyDeletewhat's in a name?
companies selling lots of stock need to get some equity to pay off loans and assure lenders they can refi.
ReplyDeleteWhy is that bad ?
I am about 105% in both Obama and Fido.
ReplyDeleteI want to go back to 150% slowly.
uhhhh ace ..........are you bearish sir ???
ReplyDeleteI always said I'd trade Obama stocks a bit. That's how I'll try to get 5-10x instead of 2-3x
ReplyDeletelmaooooo Bud...
ReplyDeletejust a ping pong player in your mold sir....
There's huge stimulus in the pipeline: gov't spending, refi, low rates, etc. That will help lots of people start spending a bit again.
ReplyDeletei hardly watch any cnbc anymore.....i switch at 830 and watch til cashin leaves........and i try to watch david faber around 910.........and if i get alerted to a special interview........that's it
ReplyDeleteevery cnbc anchor tries to be a comedian.....they suck....they aren't funny........they have even ruined a great reporter like rick santelli.......since the tea-party they just want him to be loud and political
bloomberg is an excellent channel.........that is if you want business and stock news
Bman...a few months ago you had 10 feet of snow..spring gets people moving.....let's see if that continues
ReplyDeletetrue, mav. it was a bad winter here.
ReplyDeletecompanies selling lots of stock need to get some equity to pay off loans and assure lenders they can refi.
ReplyDeleteWhy is that bad ?
ur a kid that has 2 jelly beans..but the bully(the bank) down the streetwants one....you pay him off..nothing has changed..he's still a bully..yet you're left scratchin ur balls cuz you only have 1 jelly bean left.......
I don't watch CNBC much at all. I watched this AM running on the elliptical and kept say, "how worthless" to myself.
ReplyDeleteI shuold have run to Tommy Dorsey, or the Airborne cadence tapes.
ReplyDeleteur a kid that has 2 jelly beans..but the bully(the bank) down the streetwants one....you pay him off..nothing has changed..he's still a bully..yet you're left scratchin ur balls cuz you only have 1 jelly bean left.......
ReplyDeleteuh ... isn't he paid off ? OR the equity sale was part of the re-fi deal.
the kid is better off ... not being beaten to a pulp.
MGM owes 14 billion has 276 shares outstanding..issues 81 million t raise 1.5.....they still owe 12.5..is that better?
ReplyDeletea lil tip......hes still gunna get beaten to a pulp...lol
ReplyDeleteMGM upped it to 143 million...hey thanks
ReplyDeletewe just gave away half the company..."thats ok ma..I dont mind"
ReplyDeleteuh I'm not saying buy thsoe companies ... I stay away from them.
ReplyDeleteBut it's not bearish to the rest.
MGM - itsn't taht Kerkorian ?
ONe would be nuts to be a minority shareholder to him.
So we may assume you are no longer a shareholder in DRYS?
ReplyDeleteyes, I sold that long ago in solid double digits on a big bounce - broke even.
ReplyDeleteI posted it at the time.
my shippers are EXM and GNK; and UNP rail in Fido.
ReplyDeleteAnd CLDN a trucker.
well done sir...
ReplyDeleteyou still have your trading chops....
perhaps a trip back into the tank is in order
as someone looking nationwide for a job and networking with people around the country let me explain what its like for 90% of the people who lost their jobs in the last yr.
ReplyDeleteNO ONE IS HIRING!!!!!!!!
and every month another 500 grand lose their jobs.
me im lucky. im bidding on short sales for coin laundermats (around USF), dry cleaners, maybe a small landscaper. just as long as the economy doesnt enter any real long period of depressflation (santelli seems to be in that camp, fwiw. i know he is an idiot.......), this stupid business's r simple but the cash flow is more than enough.
after having my home on the market for 6 months and not 1 bid and 2 price reductions, i guess im done moving to costa rica.
this is gettting so bad, that the right might really have a chance in 2012, even with paledog.
i wonder how far behind the curve florida is to cali? it shud be a lot better becuase of the demographics here. a lot of old retired people, certainly more than the wet backs.
im bummed bill seidman passed. he was a straight shooter. they dont make many like that.
"reccesion is over"
this recession isnt close to over!
BANK ON IT!
oh my old dog shop that i sold for 170 grand is going for sale to 35 grand (20 of which is owed to me). maybe i can buy that back...............
uh mfl ... to restate a famous quote, "I'd rather have two teeth pulled that go through that again"
ReplyDeletecoin laundermat that nuts... and digusting and if youre like Mantis with a wrench?...forgetabout it..lool...now .. a driving range with golf ball dispensing token machine.....no employees....mern-taaaastic...lool..
ReplyDeletehow about a car wash? get a couple rag men....let the machines do the work...
ReplyDeletewhat say you spin?
mern be patient...housing has obviously hit a bottom...its just a matter of time...
ReplyDeleteLMAOO NFW.....changers zapped by scum bags last week 2k to fix....Im tellin ya...people suck... cowards...were gunna get em cuz dumb fucks always come back and there will be no cops...ya know what im sayin?
ReplyDeletelmaoooooo
ReplyDeletejust like Sonny in a Bronx Tale...
"Now yous can't leave"
Bunky...what did you see in the charts...anything different than I noted yesterday, I would think so...I will grade your work on a curve and include aazzhead in the sample, gauratees you at least a C.
ReplyDeletelooool...nutten like that...catch a guy..they arrest him .they send him to jail.....you stil have banged up stuff of $$$ gone.....we would want everything as it was...taking notes merny??..lol
ReplyDeleteI saw that I'd like more dip to S&P 850-870 are and a few more days to ge the weak hands (i. e. st traders) less long. Not barging in today.
ReplyDeleteI don't look at the QQQQ at all; it's just for traders & beefers.
ReplyDeletein waver theory, we have wave A of pullback. TOday is part of B.
ReplyDeleteI await C - second phase of this pullback.
also, many individual Obama charts look good; I might have a hard time picking the adds from so many.
ReplyDeletebtw, I'll be in Ohio next week, so am doubly hesitant about getting too long.
ReplyDeleteOk Bunky...spiddy I'm thinking a test of Nov 08' lows where real buyers get to work, so something greater than your 32%, 845...this market for whatever reason has fallen in luv with hs patterns...forming one here, a measused move takes us back to those nov 08 lows then I can see a large inverted hs that takes us to spiddy 1200.
ReplyDeleteThis would fit well with the $vix envrionment we find ourselves in 30-50 channel...over 1200 would crush the vix back to historical ranges and the new bull is born.
I can could go on, but I think you get the idea...a lil longer view than yours I think, believe it fits well with your longer term fundy thesis.
845 though, we would find some great trade around the core opportunities, don't get me wrong there.
ReplyDeletethere are no real buyers, just ST and LT traders.
ReplyDeletelittle pattern ping pongers and BIG swinging ... LT types.
;)
Mrs. B getting interested... would probably do real LT buying on next more down. Has cash, will spend on good prices.
Bunky you sold out all your tech, correct?...you start hunting there...balance grasshooper :)
ReplyDeleteis "jim" a beefer Bunkerman?
ReplyDeleteI doubt if "Jim" manages enough money to be a beefer.
ReplyDelete$100 million lower limit cut-off.
I have some GOOG, frosty.
ReplyDeleteI don't see muhc tech in Obama.
Fido out of AAPL, letting Mrs. B run that one LT to 500.
Bunk why you heading out to Ohio? going to the annual sadie hawkins dance at the country club?
ReplyDeletehaha, I'm going to visit Mom.
ReplyDeleteBunky...barry luv's his crackberry (RIMM)...gonnna be like air jordans once were in the gehtto, monkey see monkey do...fits well with the secret reperations plan, I mean wealth redistribution plan ...great addtion to obama fund.
ReplyDeleteinteresting idea
ReplyDeleteno debt, reasonable growth PE.
I'll watch it.
Thanks.
Going to pick up teh Merc SUV.
monkey see monkey do
ReplyDeleteRush, give u that one, Bob?
still pretty funny
anyone notice a side effect from HGH is large ears?
ReplyDeletearod has big ones.
barry has the biggest and rather slender, no?
thats his secret imo. he's juicing.
As for the dollar, “we’re going to have a currency crisis probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” Rogers says.
ReplyDelete“It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally. …
The U.S. dollar is a very flawed currency.”
Bonds also are overvalued, he says.
And where does Rogers see investment opportunities? Commodities, as he has argued for months.
“The only place I know where the fundamentals are getting better is raw materials,” he explains.
“We’re going to have serious food shortages. … Prices are going to go through the roof.”
Whether the economy rebounds or not, “commodities are going to lead it,” Rogers says.
rogers...MLF59's boy gartman thinks he is a fag.
ReplyDeletenutten....dont shoot the laundromat messenger...im saving you an azzload of $$ and heartache..pfftttt
ReplyDeleteURRRRRRRRR WELLLLLLL-COME
'MERN'S SELF SERVE GOLF-A-RAMA"
ReplyDeletefree clubs to dark meat