The FT had an interesting article in the weekend edition commenting on "Now the Rich are Always with Us ... ". Your humble blogger has complained about this modern phenomena before: business news seems to spend an inordinate amount of time on the lives and attitudes of billionaires. The article expanded that to the multimillionare sports and entertainment figures who get massive coverage in many media outlets.
I tried to find the article in FT Online to provide a link, but failed. Here's a quote. "The global elite has grown fantastically rich in recent decades: the average person on the Forbes's list pocketed an estimated $45m last year. Consequently, we're forever reading about rich people. Indeed, being rich has become almost the criterion for being newsworthy."
All this will eventually lead to trouble, bigtime social trouble. In the US situation, the nation simply can't continue the 40 year process of all the benefits of productivity increases going to the upper income stratae. The commonly spoken economic "cures" have failed the plain people (borrowing Lincoln's term for the "common man". Yet we still hear that bloviation daily.
Obama is doing nothing; his economic team has failed. Only Ben has kept the US out of an endless recession, but Ben is now unable to move the economy forward. His shells are now simple maintenance mode. The massive public policy and public sector anchors prevent growth now.
The US needs real reform. Policy makers: read my prior blogs.
Word of the Day
"Parrhesia" - noun [$1000] Rhetoric [from Greek], seen in the FT weekend edition.
Parrhesia means 1. free-spokenness, frankness; freedom of speech; 2. [from FT] the ability to speak one's mind when doing so involves social risk.
Sentence: Your humble blogger, Bunkerman, excells in written parrhesia. An example: the US has too few jobs because the US overtaxes jobs. The Ruling Class uses taxes on jobs to keep the plain people more plain, while clamoring for lower taxes on capital.
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Monday, June 20, 2011
Monday, June 6, 2011
Monitoring on a Monday
I continue to check the spreadsheet for Krypto. The numbers for this pullback are intriguingly uniform. All stock equity classes (US, Europe, Pacific & Emerging) are uniformly down a bit, but gold & real estate are either up or flat. That makes getting good dip buys tougher. I continue to wait. No buy signals are close.
Jobs
The jobs numbers stunk Friday. Interest rates are extremely low even for long term bonds, which means the QE2 worked for its desired first order effects. The problem is national policy emanating from the Dark City. They tax and regulate jobs, subsidize shipping jobs overseas, and plan to load more costs onto US jobs in the future. Is there any wonder that the US now seems to have a long term, structural lack of jobs?
Far too many people are now long term unemployed.
On another front, the lack of home buying is caused by DC, too. Homes are a screaming buy for the common man & woman. Interest rates are low as are prices. But people can't get a mortgage loan since FNMA and Freddie have tightened standards hugely. Most self-employed people are frozen out. Obviously good refinancings can't be done do to stupid underwriting rules. All that should be changed. Hello, Obama? Are you listening?
Word of the Day
"Facile" - adjective [$10] This is a word I have trouble remembering. I came across it twice reading books over the weekend and had to look it up ... again.
Facile means 1. specious, superficial; 2. mild or pleasing in manner or disposition.
Sentence: Can a politician who is not facile be elected in America nowadays? Both the positive and negative meaning of facile apply.
Jobs
The jobs numbers stunk Friday. Interest rates are extremely low even for long term bonds, which means the QE2 worked for its desired first order effects. The problem is national policy emanating from the Dark City. They tax and regulate jobs, subsidize shipping jobs overseas, and plan to load more costs onto US jobs in the future. Is there any wonder that the US now seems to have a long term, structural lack of jobs?
Far too many people are now long term unemployed.
On another front, the lack of home buying is caused by DC, too. Homes are a screaming buy for the common man & woman. Interest rates are low as are prices. But people can't get a mortgage loan since FNMA and Freddie have tightened standards hugely. Most self-employed people are frozen out. Obviously good refinancings can't be done do to stupid underwriting rules. All that should be changed. Hello, Obama? Are you listening?
Word of the Day
"Facile" - adjective [$10] This is a word I have trouble remembering. I came across it twice reading books over the weekend and had to look it up ... again.
Facile means 1. specious, superficial; 2. mild or pleasing in manner or disposition.
Sentence: Can a politician who is not facile be elected in America nowadays? Both the positive and negative meaning of facile apply.
Monday, May 2, 2011
What's Wrong With America's Economy?
The cover of The Economist magazine asks that question. The answers [sic - plural] are staring everyone in the face; all that is required is the courage to recognize them. Here are six primary problems.
1. The US overtaxes jobs via the Social Security tax, Medicare tax and numerous state & local employment taxes.
2. All levels of government puts innumerable layers of red tape and requirements on businesses that employ people, particularly ones that employ more than 50 people, both at creation and in ongoing operations.
3. Trillions of dollars of the rich is invested in hedge funds that prefer to trade paper securities rather than make long term investments in businesses.
4. Foreign production and services provided to US corporations pay nothing to support American society; consumers of foreign goods and services pay nothing, either.
5. Employer-based "benefits" systems both raise the cost of good jobs and lock people into jobs they would prefer to leave; the system is a form of tax and red tape combined.
6. The Ruling Class uses corruption of all kinds and levels of severity to extract benefits for itself and hurt the common man and woman: this is done both via the Federal and state & local governments and via the legal system.
Bin Laden
Kudos to Barry for taking off the handcuffs and getting Osama bin Laden. He was being sheltered in Pakistan for nearly a decade and protected by its ISI spy agency. Barry, NOT BUSH, started the huge increase in drone attacks and putting more CIA people into Pakistan who were not disclosed to ISI. That CIA guy who was subject of the deportation dispute shows what was being done.
Bush lied to the people right after 9/11 saying no country could provide a sanctuary. Pakistan did that and Bush & Rumsfeld refused to push the matter. Bush & Rumsfeld let him escape Afghanistan. Barry got him. Good job!
Now what? Look, the US did not declare war on Afghanistan. Time to move out and let them wallow in their own 11th century values or fight for their own freedom.
Word of the Day
"Peripeteia" - noun [$10] a Big Al word
Peripeteia means a sudden change of fortune in a drama or in life.
Sentence: The War on Terrorism takes a peripeteia on the killing of Osama bin Laden. Time to re-assess what's been going on and what will be done in the future.
1. The US overtaxes jobs via the Social Security tax, Medicare tax and numerous state & local employment taxes.
2. All levels of government puts innumerable layers of red tape and requirements on businesses that employ people, particularly ones that employ more than 50 people, both at creation and in ongoing operations.
3. Trillions of dollars of the rich is invested in hedge funds that prefer to trade paper securities rather than make long term investments in businesses.
4. Foreign production and services provided to US corporations pay nothing to support American society; consumers of foreign goods and services pay nothing, either.
5. Employer-based "benefits" systems both raise the cost of good jobs and lock people into jobs they would prefer to leave; the system is a form of tax and red tape combined.
6. The Ruling Class uses corruption of all kinds and levels of severity to extract benefits for itself and hurt the common man and woman: this is done both via the Federal and state & local governments and via the legal system.
Bin Laden
Kudos to Barry for taking off the handcuffs and getting Osama bin Laden. He was being sheltered in Pakistan for nearly a decade and protected by its ISI spy agency. Barry, NOT BUSH, started the huge increase in drone attacks and putting more CIA people into Pakistan who were not disclosed to ISI. That CIA guy who was subject of the deportation dispute shows what was being done.
Bush lied to the people right after 9/11 saying no country could provide a sanctuary. Pakistan did that and Bush & Rumsfeld refused to push the matter. Bush & Rumsfeld let him escape Afghanistan. Barry got him. Good job!
Now what? Look, the US did not declare war on Afghanistan. Time to move out and let them wallow in their own 11th century values or fight for their own freedom.
Word of the Day
"Peripeteia" - noun [$10] a Big Al word
Peripeteia means a sudden change of fortune in a drama or in life.
Sentence: The War on Terrorism takes a peripeteia on the killing of Osama bin Laden. Time to re-assess what's been going on and what will be done in the future.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Solving Problems 101
To solve a problem, one must do two things first.
1. Identify the problem correctly; and
2. Identify the entire problem - both its short term and long term parts.
Congress, of course, fails to do either #1 or #2 correctly almost all the time.
What are the major problems facing America now?
I. Energy.
II. Transportation.
III. Jobs.
IV. Wasteful borrowing.
I and II are connected. III and IV are connected.
I. Energy: Within the lives of the current younger generation in America, the fundamental source of transportation energy in the US will change as oil will dry up ... literally. The energy density of gasoline has made it a wonderful source to portable energy to power vehicles. The Earth has now been nearly fully explored and the huge populations of the former Third World are now consuming huge amounts of oil. Demand has increased and can further increase, yet supply is hitting the brick wall. Recent discoveries of new sources of natural gas will help wean us off oil, as will tar sands. Other costlier sources of hydrocarbons will stretch this major energy problem out as oil prices rise gradually. The brick wall in 40 years can become an 80 year grinding, slow process of change.
II. Transportation. Unfortunately, since WW II the cheap gasoline has produced enormous urban sprawl. That sprawl increases demand for energy and causes huge losses in people's time and energy use in traffic jams and wasteful travel in commerce. Anyone with a couple decades of experience driving in a metropolis has seen this problem grow in intensity and extent. Airports have also gotten more and more crowded and busy; they have grown so much that simply getting in and out of them takes a serious share of the total travel time. The costs have grown and the efficiency has fallen. That old trends must stop & reverse.
III. Jobs: The Panic of 2008 and its ensuing Great Recession has created a HUGE loss of productive capacity in America, viz. those 15% of productive people now either unemployed or underemployed. Those people span all generations from the young to the retired. Many - most of those people can and want to be more productive. They want to earn more and want to work harder. The Federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is about 10%. Has it occurred to no one in leadership that the Federal budget deficit is directly related to the unemployment and underemployment of its people? Putting those 15% of the nation's people to productive work would SOLVE the Federal budget deficit problem.
IV. Wasteful Borrowing. DEBT IS NOT EVIL NOR BAD INTRINSICALLY. But borrowing money to waste the money is. Borrowing to dig a hole and fill it up is a total waste. Borrowing money to build a factory can be good IF the factory is useful. Borrowing to build up the nation's productive capacity is good - that money from debt is used for true investment that produces a return ... a profit that can repay the debt (interest and principal). The debt of a nation need NEVER be repaid. Has the debt of AT&T or IBM or General Electric or Exxon - all 100+ year old corporations - ever been entirely repaid? No. They continue to borrow money and invest it wisely. They borrow more and more, yet have no problem paying their debt service. The same applies to the US.
GM borrowed stupidly for decades, to overpay its unionized workforce to buy labor peace and overpaid its executives to keep them happy slurping at the trough; it invested in other businesses outside its core. Over time, that cannot be sustained and GM went bankrupt while competitors in the US south prospered. Borrowing to waste money leads to bankruptcy.
The same analysis applies to the US and to the States. They must cease wasteful borrowing.
Those are the problems. For the rest of this week I will post solutions.
Word of the Day
"Fardel" - noun [$100] Archaic. Used by W. B. Yeats.
Fardel means 1. a bundle; 2. a burden.
Sentence: The great fardel of problems identified above can be solved with ruthless logic and facts.
1. Identify the problem correctly; and
2. Identify the entire problem - both its short term and long term parts.
Congress, of course, fails to do either #1 or #2 correctly almost all the time.
What are the major problems facing America now?
I. Energy.
II. Transportation.
III. Jobs.
IV. Wasteful borrowing.
I and II are connected. III and IV are connected.
I. Energy: Within the lives of the current younger generation in America, the fundamental source of transportation energy in the US will change as oil will dry up ... literally. The energy density of gasoline has made it a wonderful source to portable energy to power vehicles. The Earth has now been nearly fully explored and the huge populations of the former Third World are now consuming huge amounts of oil. Demand has increased and can further increase, yet supply is hitting the brick wall. Recent discoveries of new sources of natural gas will help wean us off oil, as will tar sands. Other costlier sources of hydrocarbons will stretch this major energy problem out as oil prices rise gradually. The brick wall in 40 years can become an 80 year grinding, slow process of change.
II. Transportation. Unfortunately, since WW II the cheap gasoline has produced enormous urban sprawl. That sprawl increases demand for energy and causes huge losses in people's time and energy use in traffic jams and wasteful travel in commerce. Anyone with a couple decades of experience driving in a metropolis has seen this problem grow in intensity and extent. Airports have also gotten more and more crowded and busy; they have grown so much that simply getting in and out of them takes a serious share of the total travel time. The costs have grown and the efficiency has fallen. That old trends must stop & reverse.
III. Jobs: The Panic of 2008 and its ensuing Great Recession has created a HUGE loss of productive capacity in America, viz. those 15% of productive people now either unemployed or underemployed. Those people span all generations from the young to the retired. Many - most of those people can and want to be more productive. They want to earn more and want to work harder. The Federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is about 10%. Has it occurred to no one in leadership that the Federal budget deficit is directly related to the unemployment and underemployment of its people? Putting those 15% of the nation's people to productive work would SOLVE the Federal budget deficit problem.
IV. Wasteful Borrowing. DEBT IS NOT EVIL NOR BAD INTRINSICALLY. But borrowing money to waste the money is. Borrowing to dig a hole and fill it up is a total waste. Borrowing money to build a factory can be good IF the factory is useful. Borrowing to build up the nation's productive capacity is good - that money from debt is used for true investment that produces a return ... a profit that can repay the debt (interest and principal). The debt of a nation need NEVER be repaid. Has the debt of AT&T or IBM or General Electric or Exxon - all 100+ year old corporations - ever been entirely repaid? No. They continue to borrow money and invest it wisely. They borrow more and more, yet have no problem paying their debt service. The same applies to the US.
GM borrowed stupidly for decades, to overpay its unionized workforce to buy labor peace and overpaid its executives to keep them happy slurping at the trough; it invested in other businesses outside its core. Over time, that cannot be sustained and GM went bankrupt while competitors in the US south prospered. Borrowing to waste money leads to bankruptcy.
The same analysis applies to the US and to the States. They must cease wasteful borrowing.
Those are the problems. For the rest of this week I will post solutions.
Word of the Day
"Fardel" - noun [$100] Archaic. Used by W. B. Yeats.
Fardel means 1. a bundle; 2. a burden.
Sentence: The great fardel of problems identified above can be solved with ruthless logic and facts.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Bunkerman Talks Bull
Bull Market, that is.
The portents are starting to appear. Credit cards losses are falling. Mortgage delinquency rates are dropping.
Now is the first time for years that millions of people can refinance their home mortgages and either lower money payments or cut years off their loan maturity by getting a 15 year fixed rate loan for the same or similar payment as their existing 30 year loan. Don't let the endless gloomy talk hide this fact. Sure, unemployment is high and fears are rightly high. But 90% of the labor force is employed and much of the US did NOT go on a home boom-bust roller coaster ride. They can and should be refinance to profit from lifetime low rates.
They are doing that, based on the wave of refinancing applications and the huge backlog there now.
Corporations are doing this, too, by issuing huge amounts of long term, fixed rate debt. This low cost permanent funding will give them a financial base to eventually expand operations. A solid, well funded foundation is being built; a solid foundation can support a big building.
The US economy is going to grow strongly next year. Not this year. The stimulus was squandered by the P-O-R ring and that hive of knaves in DC. Battleship Ben at the Fed, however, is still shelling heavily and he's now eliminating that last bastion of resistance to strong growth: existing high cost debt.
The military analogy is The Battle of Normandy. Weeks of slogging through the hedge rows culminated in a carpet bombing of the last German defenses in Operation Cobra. Those were crushed and First Army broke through. Patton then led Third Army's 'right hook' swept through north central France and the Allies pushed the Germans out of France in one great rush.
Battleship Ben is doing the heavy shelling that is crushing the last line of resistance. In a few months, the battle will be over. The US economy will then have a strong financial base and strong growth can occur. People and firms can takes risks IF their home castles are secure. Low cost, long term financing makes peoples' homes and corporations' finances secure.
Get Ready to Rumble ... Put your Buying Shoes On.
But don't jump the gun. Let the selling peter out. Soon it will be time to buy. Cut back on long term bonds and TIPs to build cash. Some time soon we will have good prices and then Krypto will be buying stocks heavily.
Word of the Day
"Pusillanimous" - adjective [$10]
Pusillanimous means cowardly, faint-hearted.
Sentence: Pusillanimous people cannot be good investors; once must seize opportunities. The maxims are: Sell high, buy low ... and ... Buy low, sell high. Do this asset class by asset class and good, long term returns at low risk will be your reward.
The portents are starting to appear. Credit cards losses are falling. Mortgage delinquency rates are dropping.
Now is the first time for years that millions of people can refinance their home mortgages and either lower money payments or cut years off their loan maturity by getting a 15 year fixed rate loan for the same or similar payment as their existing 30 year loan. Don't let the endless gloomy talk hide this fact. Sure, unemployment is high and fears are rightly high. But 90% of the labor force is employed and much of the US did NOT go on a home boom-bust roller coaster ride. They can and should be refinance to profit from lifetime low rates.
They are doing that, based on the wave of refinancing applications and the huge backlog there now.
Corporations are doing this, too, by issuing huge amounts of long term, fixed rate debt. This low cost permanent funding will give them a financial base to eventually expand operations. A solid, well funded foundation is being built; a solid foundation can support a big building.
The US economy is going to grow strongly next year. Not this year. The stimulus was squandered by the P-O-R ring and that hive of knaves in DC. Battleship Ben at the Fed, however, is still shelling heavily and he's now eliminating that last bastion of resistance to strong growth: existing high cost debt.
The military analogy is The Battle of Normandy. Weeks of slogging through the hedge rows culminated in a carpet bombing of the last German defenses in Operation Cobra. Those were crushed and First Army broke through. Patton then led Third Army's 'right hook' swept through north central France and the Allies pushed the Germans out of France in one great rush.
Battleship Ben is doing the heavy shelling that is crushing the last line of resistance. In a few months, the battle will be over. The US economy will then have a strong financial base and strong growth can occur. People and firms can takes risks IF their home castles are secure. Low cost, long term financing makes peoples' homes and corporations' finances secure.
Get Ready to Rumble ... Put your Buying Shoes On.
But don't jump the gun. Let the selling peter out. Soon it will be time to buy. Cut back on long term bonds and TIPs to build cash. Some time soon we will have good prices and then Krypto will be buying stocks heavily.
Word of the Day
"Pusillanimous" - adjective [$10]
Pusillanimous means cowardly, faint-hearted.
Sentence: Pusillanimous people cannot be good investors; once must seize opportunities. The maxims are: Sell high, buy low ... and ... Buy low, sell high. Do this asset class by asset class and good, long term returns at low risk will be your reward.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Slogging in the Mud
IF I was a perma bear and didn't have an optimistic outlook on life, I could get depressed. The Fed's "beige book" shows the US economy is still stuck in the mud, making very slow progress. Unemployment claims show over 400K new job losses week after week. Millions of homeowners are underwater - stuck in houses where they owe more than the house is worth. States are cutting back as their golden egg (the high income person) has gone away. The Federal government is unable to do anything correctly; a huge tax increase is looming in 2010.
Public debates are reduced to sloganeering; no critical discussions are held to try to resolve major issues. Companies have huge cash balances, but are afraid to invest in growth. The Federal stimulus was squandered. Big banks suck all the money in communities to speculate in trading on Wall Street. Monstrous new federal laws on health care and financial "reform" seem to create more troubles and uncertainly.
Is anything being done to truly help the common man and woman ? No. Federal mortgage modification programs were a sham - a propaganda fillip to the masses to help Nancy & Harry & Obama look good. More people are pushed into the cash economy by onerous bank rules on simple things like checking accounts. Looting of those in hardship by payday lenders & check cashing services is rampant and when stopped in one place, spreads to others like auto title loans. Congress and the government do nothing until problems hit the press. Why ? Because the Ruling Class has no idea what's going on in the streets and small towns.
The IRS plans onerous new rules on business, to require 1099 forms be filed for EVERY transaction over a certain size. So if one buys a computer from Dell in a few years, one will soon have to file a 1099 for that. More paperwork clogging the system ! That rule alone is monstrous and its consequences will be huge.
BUT ...
Much of the world is doing fine. Demand for real estate loans in Europe is growing. Emerging markets are reaching critical mass in demand internal to themselves, and rely less on the US & Europe for orders. The US is still a bastion of liberty in the world. People in the US are coping and doing small things to improve themselves and their lives. People living in freedom seem to unleash an innate desire to improve their lives, to grow their economies and make small, incremental improvements in all aspects of their lives. That's what is keeping the US economy going. Not government. The PEOPLE.
Government - get out of the way and stop trying to control the people. If government won't become part of the solution, the PEOPLE need to kick the knaves out. This November they have a chance. Stay focused and vote only for HONEST leaders. Meanwhile, one can't solve every problem at once, but one can solve them one at a time. Stick to that and cope.
Word of the Day
"Inure" - verb [$10]
Inure means 1. (transitive; often in passive; followed by 'to') accustom (a person) to something, especially unpleasant; 2. (intransitive, Law) come into operation, take effect.
Sentence: If and when the new IRS 1099 rules inure, small business in the US will suffer immensely under a new mountain of red tape.
Public debates are reduced to sloganeering; no critical discussions are held to try to resolve major issues. Companies have huge cash balances, but are afraid to invest in growth. The Federal stimulus was squandered. Big banks suck all the money in communities to speculate in trading on Wall Street. Monstrous new federal laws on health care and financial "reform" seem to create more troubles and uncertainly.
Is anything being done to truly help the common man and woman ? No. Federal mortgage modification programs were a sham - a propaganda fillip to the masses to help Nancy & Harry & Obama look good. More people are pushed into the cash economy by onerous bank rules on simple things like checking accounts. Looting of those in hardship by payday lenders & check cashing services is rampant and when stopped in one place, spreads to others like auto title loans. Congress and the government do nothing until problems hit the press. Why ? Because the Ruling Class has no idea what's going on in the streets and small towns.
The IRS plans onerous new rules on business, to require 1099 forms be filed for EVERY transaction over a certain size. So if one buys a computer from Dell in a few years, one will soon have to file a 1099 for that. More paperwork clogging the system ! That rule alone is monstrous and its consequences will be huge.
BUT ...
Much of the world is doing fine. Demand for real estate loans in Europe is growing. Emerging markets are reaching critical mass in demand internal to themselves, and rely less on the US & Europe for orders. The US is still a bastion of liberty in the world. People in the US are coping and doing small things to improve themselves and their lives. People living in freedom seem to unleash an innate desire to improve their lives, to grow their economies and make small, incremental improvements in all aspects of their lives. That's what is keeping the US economy going. Not government. The PEOPLE.
Government - get out of the way and stop trying to control the people. If government won't become part of the solution, the PEOPLE need to kick the knaves out. This November they have a chance. Stay focused and vote only for HONEST leaders. Meanwhile, one can't solve every problem at once, but one can solve them one at a time. Stick to that and cope.
Word of the Day
"Inure" - verb [$10]
Inure means 1. (transitive; often in passive; followed by 'to') accustom (a person) to something, especially unpleasant; 2. (intransitive, Law) come into operation, take effect.
Sentence: If and when the new IRS 1099 rules inure, small business in the US will suffer immensely under a new mountain of red tape.
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Watching ...
Krypto is watching this market now as intently as she watches a herd of sheep. She's getting ready to deploy some cash. The model is close to giving her a re-allocation buy signal for US stocks. She sold a good amount of those at much higher prices and looks to re-buy soon. I think S&P around 1000 to 1011 will give a good signal.
I'm also questioning the size of holdings in TIPs now. Those are getting to ridiculously high prices. Krypto has targeted 10% of assets in TIPs, 2.5% in cash. She recenlty cut TIPs from 12.5% to 10%. I wonder if some more of the TIPs should go to cash, for eventual redeployment. Thinking ...
Stock prices are down in Europe - more fears.
Anecdotally, New England business seems improving. I saw another new private construction project in my little town's center. Permabears are likely soon to be caught short.
Economy
Today we get another look at unemployment claims. I expect nothing good. The jobs picture and economy cannot improve until the weekly new unemployment claims falls under 400,000, preferably to under 300,000 per week.
PS: 472,000 new jobless claims. There is no "recovery". Still slogging in the swamp. Here's 472,000 new "thank you" messages for Pelosi-Obama-Reid ... hmmm ... that acronym is POR - guess it fits their performance and the status of far too many people in America.
Word of the Day
"Marasmus" - noun [$10]
Marasmus means a wasting away of the body.
Sentence: The world economy is not suffering from marasmus; the productive assets and human capital are still there and simply need to be put to use by people with vision and will.
I'm also questioning the size of holdings in TIPs now. Those are getting to ridiculously high prices. Krypto has targeted 10% of assets in TIPs, 2.5% in cash. She recenlty cut TIPs from 12.5% to 10%. I wonder if some more of the TIPs should go to cash, for eventual redeployment. Thinking ...
Stock prices are down in Europe - more fears.
Anecdotally, New England business seems improving. I saw another new private construction project in my little town's center. Permabears are likely soon to be caught short.
Economy
Today we get another look at unemployment claims. I expect nothing good. The jobs picture and economy cannot improve until the weekly new unemployment claims falls under 400,000, preferably to under 300,000 per week.
PS: 472,000 new jobless claims. There is no "recovery". Still slogging in the swamp. Here's 472,000 new "thank you" messages for Pelosi-Obama-Reid ... hmmm ... that acronym is POR - guess it fits their performance and the status of far too many people in America.
Word of the Day
"Marasmus" - noun [$10]
Marasmus means a wasting away of the body.
Sentence: The world economy is not suffering from marasmus; the productive assets and human capital are still there and simply need to be put to use by people with vision and will.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Double Dip ?
Why oh why are people talking about a "double dip" for the economy ? To have a "second" dip presumes a recovery is underway. Where is there any evidence for that ? Every week, week after week, over 450,000 NEW unemployment claims are filed, That's hard data - no major adjustments. real people go to the unemployment office and file claims for benefits - they lost their jobs. That pain is real. That whole family is directly impacted. And loss of that job has a major, major word of mouth secondary effect on neighbors, friends, relatives who hear about it.
Recovery ? Nonsense, at least nationally. [New England seems to be recovering well, anecdotally.]
The correct question is whether there will be a second leg down.
The US economy is still in the swamp, slogging along with huge drag. Correct metaphor is whether is, "Will it step into quicksand and drop more ?"
The stimulus was squandered. A proper stimulus would now be seeing major spending on internal improvements (bridges, ports, rail, high speed Internet, conservation, water projects, historic rehabilitation, etc.) Little was done and little is happening.
Homes values are stagnant or are still dropping in the hard hit areas. The only thing that prevents them from falling faster in those areas is the very slow rate of forced sales by banks as they ration supply to the market to prevent more declines. The big talk in DC of loan modifications is and was boob bait - nothing is or was being done that had a major impact. People are stuck in underwater homes - and when / if something bad happens to their income, a foreclosure or bankruptcy occurs. More pain.
Major taxes rises are scheduled for 2011. That will hurt the economy a lot. Obama is doing nothing to change that and he's even piling more on.
Savers aren't making any money as interest rates are very low. Retiree incomes are down and will likely stay down.
State and local governments have still not restructured their huge pension obligations nor significantly cut the future accrual of benefits.
Three things are fighting a second leg down: The Fed, the natural tendency of those Americans with jobs to spend, and the entrepreneurial nature of free Americans. If they can't find a job, they often scrap and scrimp and create one by starting a business of some kind.
We can only hope that Obama won't shoot off one of the three legs on that shaky stool. He has no leadership ability nor ideas. The "book" on Obama before the election was that he's simply a "speech". That is now proven true before our eyes. The public was fooled by his media sycophants and shills.
Have they learned their lesson ?
Word of the Day
"Duoliteral" - adjective [$100]
Duoliteral means consisting of two letters only.
Sentence: What's a duoliteral description of Obama's Presidential performance ? BS.
Recovery ? Nonsense, at least nationally. [New England seems to be recovering well, anecdotally.]
The correct question is whether there will be a second leg down.
The US economy is still in the swamp, slogging along with huge drag. Correct metaphor is whether is, "Will it step into quicksand and drop more ?"
The stimulus was squandered. A proper stimulus would now be seeing major spending on internal improvements (bridges, ports, rail, high speed Internet, conservation, water projects, historic rehabilitation, etc.) Little was done and little is happening.
Homes values are stagnant or are still dropping in the hard hit areas. The only thing that prevents them from falling faster in those areas is the very slow rate of forced sales by banks as they ration supply to the market to prevent more declines. The big talk in DC of loan modifications is and was boob bait - nothing is or was being done that had a major impact. People are stuck in underwater homes - and when / if something bad happens to their income, a foreclosure or bankruptcy occurs. More pain.
Major taxes rises are scheduled for 2011. That will hurt the economy a lot. Obama is doing nothing to change that and he's even piling more on.
Savers aren't making any money as interest rates are very low. Retiree incomes are down and will likely stay down.
State and local governments have still not restructured their huge pension obligations nor significantly cut the future accrual of benefits.
Three things are fighting a second leg down: The Fed, the natural tendency of those Americans with jobs to spend, and the entrepreneurial nature of free Americans. If they can't find a job, they often scrap and scrimp and create one by starting a business of some kind.
We can only hope that Obama won't shoot off one of the three legs on that shaky stool. He has no leadership ability nor ideas. The "book" on Obama before the election was that he's simply a "speech". That is now proven true before our eyes. The public was fooled by his media sycophants and shills.
Have they learned their lesson ?
Word of the Day
"Duoliteral" - adjective [$100]
Duoliteral means consisting of two letters only.
Sentence: What's a duoliteral description of Obama's Presidential performance ? BS.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
The Key Number
To assess the strength or weakness of the US economy, you need only look at one number every week: the new unemployment claims. This is a rather hard number as it is based on real people filing real claims from layoffs. If does not capture failures of small sole proprietorships, but not much else does that.
IF-WHEN that number falls under 300,000, then one can say the US economy is growing well - fast enough to absorb new graduates and labor force re-entrants. Until then, it's a muddle.
Don't waste time on the forest of other data - just watch that one big tree.
Today we get another data point. I expect another poor number - around 450,000. Ugh.
Word of the Day
"Churl" - noun [$10]
Churl means 1, a medieval peasant; 2. rustic, countryman; 3. a rude, ill-bred person; a stingy, morose person.
Sentence: Has not Barry become quite a churl by his slang comments about BP and what he would do to them ?
IF-WHEN that number falls under 300,000, then one can say the US economy is growing well - fast enough to absorb new graduates and labor force re-entrants. Until then, it's a muddle.
Don't waste time on the forest of other data - just watch that one big tree.
Today we get another data point. I expect another poor number - around 450,000. Ugh.
Word of the Day
"Churl" - noun [$10]
Churl means 1, a medieval peasant; 2. rustic, countryman; 3. a rude, ill-bred person; a stingy, morose person.
Sentence: Has not Barry become quite a churl by his slang comments about BP and what he would do to them ?
Monday, June 7, 2010
As Ye Sow, So Shall Ye Reap
"Ye" is an archaic, obsolete form for the nominative 2nd person plural of "you".
On Friday we saw an instantiation of this proverb in the monthly jobs report. The report showed the private sector created merely 41,000 jobs in May, of which 31,000 were thought to be temporary, making a net private sector job creation of 10,000. Abysmal ! That is the jobs harvest of the Pelosi-Obama "Stimulus" bill [aka the "POS" bill ] passed about 15 months ago, which had a price tag of about $800 billion. All the time lags one could expect have passed. So much for the "jump-starting" metaphor and the "shovel-ready" projects. The rhetoric was all there was in the POS.
Did POS fund any permanent improvements for the US ? Did it fund needed rail transport improvements to provide long term alternatives to gasoline/diesel cars & trucks ? Nope. Did it fund a national high-speed Internet improvements ? Nope. Did it fund port improvements and improve rail connections to help US companies export ? Nope. Did it fund nuclear power construction to provide domestic sources of energy ? Nope. Did it fund better cell phone access for remote (and not so remote) areas of the US ? Nope. Did it fund urban high speed wireless Internet access ? Nope. Did it fund improvements in tourist sites or wilderness areas or historical rehabilitation to increase tourism and domestic demand ? Nope.
It's rather hard to see any highway improvements, either, beyond what seems like ordinary repairs & maintenance.
All the POS did was throw money at wasteful state & local governments and fritter away that $800 billion on innumerable pet projects of the ruling classes in DC. In other words, it was spent like the earmarks that Congress loves to feed on in their trough - payoffs for their supporters.
The POS sowed nothing and now the US reaps only scattered weeds. And more ... in the interim, did Obama use any fertilizer ? Nope. He did NOTHING to help the private sector - and in fact has harmed it with his health care monstrosity, which will impose huge new burdens and costs on the private sector.
Meanwhile, every week we see over 400,000 new layoffs. Who in their right mind can think this "recovery" has legs ? Just imagine the effect of those layoffs on the 400,000 families affected. And the Obama propaganda machine rolls on, spreading happy-talk and outright lies. His economic "plan" is now in tatters - but was there ever a plan ? I think not. He did nothing and even cooperated while the Pelosi crowd of ruling class hogs slurped up the money for their friends.
The people need to act and kick that passel of hogs out of office at every level of government. And get the government off the backs of the private sector. And take charge of this recovery themselves.
Btw, I see no "double-dip", just stagnation for awhile while the people act.
Actions
None planned or foreseen. Krypto seems content.
Word of the Day
"Cautelous" - adjective [$1000] from "Cautel" - noun, verb (substantive) [$1000] Obsolete, archaic.
Cautel means (noun) 1. a crafty device, artifice, stratagem, trick, sleight, deceit; 2. cunning, craftiness, wiliness, trickery; 3. caution, wariness, heedfulness; 4. a precaution: in Law, an exception, restriction, or reservation made for precaution's sake; (verb) to deceive, beguile, to devise cunningly or craftily.
Cautelous means 1. full of cautels, deceitful, crafty, artful, wiliy; cautious, wary, heedful, circumspect.
Sentence: (A) [from Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act II, Scene 1] "Swear priests and cowards and men cautelous" - spoken by Brutus disclaiming any need for the "noble" conspirators to swear to murder Caesar. (B) The people need leaders, true leaders who will lead with DEEDS, not words, and who are not mere cautelous knaves.
On Friday we saw an instantiation of this proverb in the monthly jobs report. The report showed the private sector created merely 41,000 jobs in May, of which 31,000 were thought to be temporary, making a net private sector job creation of 10,000. Abysmal ! That is the jobs harvest of the Pelosi-Obama "Stimulus" bill [aka the "POS" bill ] passed about 15 months ago, which had a price tag of about $800 billion. All the time lags one could expect have passed. So much for the "jump-starting" metaphor and the "shovel-ready" projects. The rhetoric was all there was in the POS.
Did POS fund any permanent improvements for the US ? Did it fund needed rail transport improvements to provide long term alternatives to gasoline/diesel cars & trucks ? Nope. Did it fund a national high-speed Internet improvements ? Nope. Did it fund port improvements and improve rail connections to help US companies export ? Nope. Did it fund nuclear power construction to provide domestic sources of energy ? Nope. Did it fund better cell phone access for remote (and not so remote) areas of the US ? Nope. Did it fund urban high speed wireless Internet access ? Nope. Did it fund improvements in tourist sites or wilderness areas or historical rehabilitation to increase tourism and domestic demand ? Nope.
It's rather hard to see any highway improvements, either, beyond what seems like ordinary repairs & maintenance.
All the POS did was throw money at wasteful state & local governments and fritter away that $800 billion on innumerable pet projects of the ruling classes in DC. In other words, it was spent like the earmarks that Congress loves to feed on in their trough - payoffs for their supporters.
The POS sowed nothing and now the US reaps only scattered weeds. And more ... in the interim, did Obama use any fertilizer ? Nope. He did NOTHING to help the private sector - and in fact has harmed it with his health care monstrosity, which will impose huge new burdens and costs on the private sector.
Meanwhile, every week we see over 400,000 new layoffs. Who in their right mind can think this "recovery" has legs ? Just imagine the effect of those layoffs on the 400,000 families affected. And the Obama propaganda machine rolls on, spreading happy-talk and outright lies. His economic "plan" is now in tatters - but was there ever a plan ? I think not. He did nothing and even cooperated while the Pelosi crowd of ruling class hogs slurped up the money for their friends.
The people need to act and kick that passel of hogs out of office at every level of government. And get the government off the backs of the private sector. And take charge of this recovery themselves.
Btw, I see no "double-dip", just stagnation for awhile while the people act.
Actions
None planned or foreseen. Krypto seems content.
Word of the Day
"Cautelous" - adjective [$1000] from "Cautel" - noun, verb (substantive) [$1000] Obsolete, archaic.
Cautel means (noun) 1. a crafty device, artifice, stratagem, trick, sleight, deceit; 2. cunning, craftiness, wiliness, trickery; 3. caution, wariness, heedfulness; 4. a precaution: in Law, an exception, restriction, or reservation made for precaution's sake; (verb) to deceive, beguile, to devise cunningly or craftily.
Cautelous means 1. full of cautels, deceitful, crafty, artful, wiliy; cautious, wary, heedful, circumspect.
Sentence: (A) [from Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act II, Scene 1] "Swear priests and cowards and men cautelous" - spoken by Brutus disclaiming any need for the "noble" conspirators to swear to murder Caesar. (B) The people need leaders, true leaders who will lead with DEEDS, not words, and who are not mere cautelous knaves.
Friday, February 12, 2010
Whither Now ?
The elephants are still stomping in the mud at their drying waterhole. I've been hiding in a palm tree overlooking it to avoid getting stomped. My last two trading forays ended flat and poorly. The question is, whither will the world economy go now ? Up, sideways or down ? Or will it go in different directions in different places ?
News today is not encouraging. From FT: "Germany’s economy ground to a halt at the end of last year, dashing hopes that its rebound would help lift activity across continental Europe.
Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter was flat compared with the previous three months, according to the country’s statistical office. That was weaker than expected and suggested that the ending of government emergency support measures – including subsidies for car purchases – had a greater impact than feared."
China announced higher bank reserve rates this AM to slow lending. Futures dropped on that news.
The US Congress is discussing another jobs bill. I guess that's a tacit admission that last year's 'stimulus' bill mostly wasted the money. That's no surprise to readers of this blog.
A friend sent me a headline from Australia on a jobs bill there. That nation seems to cleverly combine jobs with long term benefits to a key industry. They are funding heritage projects around the nation. These are good programs because they not only provide good construction jobs to preserve historic places, but those very places are important tourist sites. Thus a good local industry gets long term benefits, too. The US did something like this in the Depression.
Here's the link ->
http://thegovmonitor.com/economy/jobs-fund-to-support-60-million-heritage-investment-and-create-thousands-of-australian-jobs-12202.html
DC, ooops I mean RC (aka Racketeer Central) has been so corrupt for so long that simply doing the right thing is foreign to the lifers there. They just do what's expedient. Or do something phony hidden by lots of propaganda. Or run their rackets of lobbyist payoffs and earmarks (aka bribes) for supporters.
The US economy is going to have to start standing on its own very, very soon. In March the Fed will cease buying home mortgages. That will be an acid test. Rates will surely go up. How much ? More importantly, will sufficient funding be available ? I wonder ...
Hence my choice to stay safe in the trees. The elephants are stomping around hard, the mud and dust fills the air. For my speculative funds, I'll wait until I can envision a sustainable trend - when the elephants move out, I'll climb onto their backs and ride to the next waterhole.
My long term funds, managed by my dog, Krypto, made some substantial purchases of equities, gold and silver in recent days (all posted here). Her asset allocation moves often are rather timely. So I'm leaning to thinking the long side will proved the next big move. But when ?
For now: Je ne fais rien. Ich machte nichts. Nic nie robię. Estoy haciendo nada. Non faccio nulla. Nihil facio. I am doing nothing.
Celebrate Lincoln's Birthday !!!
I'll be doing that this evening and again on Sunday at the Lincoln's Birthday Brunch of the Department of Massachusetts, Sons of Union Veterans of the Civil War.
"President's Day" is such thin gruel compared to Lincoln's and Washington's Birthdays. I stick to the original holidays.
Word of the Day
"Irrefragable" - adjective [$10]
Irrefragable means 1. (of a statement, argument, or person) unanswerable, indisputable; 2. (of rules, etc.) inviolable.
Sentence: It's an irrefragable truth that the US Congress is now dysfunctional. Why ? The wrong people are being elected. For decades, voters chose the expedient path, viz. a person who 'brings home the bacon', rather than an honest person. Voters: be bipartisan - vote solely for honesty and good principles !
[hehe, I love it when my Word of the Day stumps the Google spellchecker :-)) ]
News today is not encouraging. From FT: "Germany’s economy ground to a halt at the end of last year, dashing hopes that its rebound would help lift activity across continental Europe.
Gross domestic product in the fourth quarter was flat compared with the previous three months, according to the country’s statistical office. That was weaker than expected and suggested that the ending of government emergency support measures – including subsidies for car purchases – had a greater impact than feared."
China announced higher bank reserve rates this AM to slow lending. Futures dropped on that news.
The US Congress is discussing another jobs bill. I guess that's a tacit admission that last year's 'stimulus' bill mostly wasted the money. That's no surprise to readers of this blog.
A friend sent me a headline from Australia on a jobs bill there. That nation seems to cleverly combine jobs with long term benefits to a key industry. They are funding heritage projects around the nation. These are good programs because they not only provide good construction jobs to preserve historic places, but those very places are important tourist sites. Thus a good local industry gets long term benefits, too. The US did something like this in the Depression.
Here's the link ->
http://thegovmonitor.com/economy/jobs-fund-to-support-60-million-heritage-investment-and-create-thousands-of-australian-jobs-12202.html
DC, ooops I mean RC (aka Racketeer Central) has been so corrupt for so long that simply doing the right thing is foreign to the lifers there. They just do what's expedient. Or do something phony hidden by lots of propaganda. Or run their rackets of lobbyist payoffs and earmarks (aka bribes) for supporters.
The US economy is going to have to start standing on its own very, very soon. In March the Fed will cease buying home mortgages. That will be an acid test. Rates will surely go up. How much ? More importantly, will sufficient funding be available ? I wonder ...
Hence my choice to stay safe in the trees. The elephants are stomping around hard, the mud and dust fills the air. For my speculative funds, I'll wait until I can envision a sustainable trend - when the elephants move out, I'll climb onto their backs and ride to the next waterhole.
My long term funds, managed by my dog, Krypto, made some substantial purchases of equities, gold and silver in recent days (all posted here). Her asset allocation moves often are rather timely. So I'm leaning to thinking the long side will proved the next big move. But when ?
For now: Je ne fais rien. Ich machte nichts. Nic nie robię. Estoy haciendo nada. Non faccio nulla. Nihil facio. I am doing nothing.
Celebrate Lincoln's Birthday !!!
I'll be doing that this evening and again on Sunday at the Lincoln's Birthday Brunch of the Department of Massachusetts, Sons of Union Veterans of the Civil War.
"President's Day" is such thin gruel compared to Lincoln's and Washington's Birthdays. I stick to the original holidays.
Word of the Day
"Irrefragable" - adjective [$10]
Irrefragable means 1. (of a statement, argument, or person) unanswerable, indisputable; 2. (of rules, etc.) inviolable.
Sentence: It's an irrefragable truth that the US Congress is now dysfunctional. Why ? The wrong people are being elected. For decades, voters chose the expedient path, viz. a person who 'brings home the bacon', rather than an honest person. Voters: be bipartisan - vote solely for honesty and good principles !
[hehe, I love it when my Word of the Day stumps the Google spellchecker :-)) ]
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Ils Montent - They Go Up
Up is up.
I'm no fan of management at Alcoa (AA). They are serial blunderers. And I don't own any stocks in aluminum companies since aluminum is not a scare metal; it's very, very abundant. But this fact caught my attention in press reports of their quarterly results.
WSJ: "Alcoa said it sold more aluminum in the past three months, compared with a year earlier, due to rising shipments and declining inventories"
The company also made money: "The world's largest integrated aluminum producer posted a profit of $77 million, or 8 cents a share, in the quarter. " Analysts had expected a loss.
The world economies are increasing. Ils montent.
Last Friday I had a bit of fun. Following the style of 1960s and 1960s psychobabble, I posted a chant to harness the metal 'vibes' of readers. I was motivated by two movie scenes. First was the scene in the great movie, Moby Dick, with Gregory Peck as Capt. Ahab. At one point the great white whale, Moby Dick, rises from the deep and Capt. Ahab roars, "He Breaches" (from memory). Second was the scene in Kelly's Heroes" when the tank commander nut, Oddball, played by Donald Sutherland, notices the optimism of everyone and says, "Crazy... I mean like, so many positive waves... maybe we can't lose, you're on! "
The chant was structured using an idea of a Platonic form from numbers to have seven verses chanted seven times in seven languages. Here it is again.
"augunt ... Sie steigen ... Ils montent ... aumentano ... aumentan ... wzrastają ... they go up."
I've improved the original idea. If seven people chant this seven times seven times a day for seven days with a seven second "ommmmmmmmmm" in between each chant, this will be a perfect 7x7x7x7x7x7x7 chant - imagine that power of it - the vibes !!!
Haha, this is a joke, but it's fun.
Actions
I suppose it sounds boring, but I am doing nothing. Je ne fais rien. I'm just sitting on my positions, letting them play out. A few more movie/TV quotes come to mind.
The Emperor – Return of the Jedi: “Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.”
Hannibal Hayes – The A Team - “I just love it when a plan comes together”
Word of the Day
"Eristic" - adjective & noun [$10]
Eristic means (adjective) 1. of or characterized by disputation; 2. (of an argument or arguer) aiming at winning rather than reaching the truth; (noun) 3. the practice of disputation; 4. an exponent of disputation.
Sentence: (A) Congress seems more interested in eristics that in doings anything for the people. (B) a more erudite Rodney King might say, "Let's all stop being so eristic".
I'm no fan of management at Alcoa (AA). They are serial blunderers. And I don't own any stocks in aluminum companies since aluminum is not a scare metal; it's very, very abundant. But this fact caught my attention in press reports of their quarterly results.
WSJ: "Alcoa said it sold more aluminum in the past three months, compared with a year earlier, due to rising shipments and declining inventories"
The company also made money: "The world's largest integrated aluminum producer posted a profit of $77 million, or 8 cents a share, in the quarter. " Analysts had expected a loss.
The world economies are increasing. Ils montent.
Last Friday I had a bit of fun. Following the style of 1960s and 1960s psychobabble, I posted a chant to harness the metal 'vibes' of readers. I was motivated by two movie scenes. First was the scene in the great movie, Moby Dick, with Gregory Peck as Capt. Ahab. At one point the great white whale, Moby Dick, rises from the deep and Capt. Ahab roars, "He Breaches" (from memory). Second was the scene in Kelly's Heroes" when the tank commander nut, Oddball, played by Donald Sutherland, notices the optimism of everyone and says, "Crazy... I mean like, so many positive waves... maybe we can't lose, you're on! "
The chant was structured using an idea of a Platonic form from numbers to have seven verses chanted seven times in seven languages. Here it is again.
"augunt ... Sie steigen ... Ils montent ... aumentano ... aumentan ... wzrastają ... they go up."
I've improved the original idea. If seven people chant this seven times seven times a day for seven days with a seven second "ommmmmmmmmm" in between each chant, this will be a perfect 7x7x7x7x7x7x7 chant - imagine that power of it - the vibes !!!
Haha, this is a joke, but it's fun.
Actions
I suppose it sounds boring, but I am doing nothing. Je ne fais rien. I'm just sitting on my positions, letting them play out. A few more movie/TV quotes come to mind.
The Emperor – Return of the Jedi: “Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.”
Hannibal Hayes – The A Team - “I just love it when a plan comes together”
Word of the Day
"Eristic" - adjective & noun [$10]
Eristic means (adjective) 1. of or characterized by disputation; 2. (of an argument or arguer) aiming at winning rather than reaching the truth; (noun) 3. the practice of disputation; 4. an exponent of disputation.
Sentence: (A) Congress seems more interested in eristics that in doings anything for the people. (B) a more erudite Rodney King might say, "Let's all stop being so eristic".
Monday, September 21, 2009
Another Reader Revealed ...
Perusing the Wall Street Journal weekend paper edition on Sunday morning, I was shocked to see that multi-decadal bear as author of a bullish article. James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer and noted bear since the 1980s, is looking for a surprisingly vigorous economic recovery.
***Selected Quotes Begin***
"As if they really knew, leading economists predict that recovery from our Great Recession will be plodding, gray and jobless. But they don't know, and can't. The future is unfathomable.
"Not famously a glass half-full kind of fellow, I am about to propose that the recovery will be a bit of a barn burner. Not that I can really know, either, the future being what it is. However, though I can't predict, I can guess. No, not "guess." Let us say infer.
"The very best investors don't even try to forecast the future. Rather, they seize such opportunities as the present affords them. ...
"Americans are blessedly out of practice at bearing up under economic adversity. Individuals take their knocks, always, as do companies and communities. But it has been a generation since a business cycle downturn exacted the collective pain that this one has done. Knocked for a loop, we forget a truism. With regard to the recession that precedes the recovery, worse is subsequently better. The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery. To quote a dissenter from the forecasting consensus, Michael T. Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners, Greenwich, Conn.: "[T]he most important determinant of the strength of an economy recovery is the depth of the downturn that preceded it. There are no exceptions to this rule, including the 1929-1939 period. ...
"To the English economist Arthur C. Pigou is credited a bon mot that exactly frames the issue. "The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant." ...
"I promised to be bullish , and I am (for once)—bullish on the prospects for unscripted strength in business activity. So, too, is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York, which was founded by the late Geoffrey Moore and can trace its intellectual heritage back to the great business-cycle theorist Wesley C. Mitchell. The institute's long leading index of the U.S. economy, along with supporting sub-indices, are making 26-year highs and point to the strongest bounce-back since 1983. A second nonconformist, the previously cited Mr. Darda, notes that the last time a recession ravaged the labor market as badly as this one has, the years were 1957-58 —after which, payrolls climbed by a hefty 4.5% in the first year of an ensuing 24-month expansion. Which is not to say, he cautions, that growth this time will match that pace, only that growth is likely to surprise by its strength, not weakness.
"And that is my case, too. The world is positioned for disappointment. But, in economic and financial matters, the world rarely gets what it expects. Pigou had humanity's number. The "error of pessimism" is born the size of a full-grown man—the size of the average adult economist, for example. "
***End of Selective Quotes***
It's nice to have a silent reader pick up my thinking and add to it with his own research.
Greenies
The environmental crypto-fascists have discovered the secret to meeting carbon limits: poverty. Watch out, common man, you and your relative prosperity are the target.
From the FT: "The recession has resulted in an unparalleled fall in greenhouse gas emissions, providing a “unique opportunity” to move the world away from high-carbon growth, an International Energy Agency study has found. "
By increasing poverty and lowering GDP, carbon limits can be reached. What a wonderful admission ! The battle of Man vs. The New Pagan Religion is on.
Word of the Day
"Proselytize" - verb [$10]; an oldie from the card file
Proselytize means to convert to a belief, life style, religion, etc.; to recruit
Sentence: As I daily proselytize my populist libertarianism and economic thinking in this blog, one of the joys is to see prominent writers accept and go on to propagate my ideas. Welcome, James Grant to the bunker !
La Parola della Settimana
"Benvenuto" - interjection (singular); "Benvenuti" - plural
Benvenuto! means welcome! Addressing more than one person, use Benvenuti!
La Frase: Benvenuto, James Grant, al Fortino.
Sentence: Welcome, James Grant, to the Bunker.
***Selected Quotes Begin***
"As if they really knew, leading economists predict that recovery from our Great Recession will be plodding, gray and jobless. But they don't know, and can't. The future is unfathomable.
"Not famously a glass half-full kind of fellow, I am about to propose that the recovery will be a bit of a barn burner. Not that I can really know, either, the future being what it is. However, though I can't predict, I can guess. No, not "guess." Let us say infer.
"The very best investors don't even try to forecast the future. Rather, they seize such opportunities as the present affords them. ...
"Americans are blessedly out of practice at bearing up under economic adversity. Individuals take their knocks, always, as do companies and communities. But it has been a generation since a business cycle downturn exacted the collective pain that this one has done. Knocked for a loop, we forget a truism. With regard to the recession that precedes the recovery, worse is subsequently better. The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery. To quote a dissenter from the forecasting consensus, Michael T. Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners, Greenwich, Conn.: "[T]he most important determinant of the strength of an economy recovery is the depth of the downturn that preceded it. There are no exceptions to this rule, including the 1929-1939 period. ...
"To the English economist Arthur C. Pigou is credited a bon mot that exactly frames the issue. "The error of optimism dies in the crisis, but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born not an infant, but a giant." ...
"I promised to be bullish , and I am (for once)—bullish on the prospects for unscripted strength in business activity. So, too, is the Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York, which was founded by the late Geoffrey Moore and can trace its intellectual heritage back to the great business-cycle theorist Wesley C. Mitchell. The institute's long leading index of the U.S. economy, along with supporting sub-indices, are making 26-year highs and point to the strongest bounce-back since 1983. A second nonconformist, the previously cited Mr. Darda, notes that the last time a recession ravaged the labor market as badly as this one has, the years were 1957-58 —after which, payrolls climbed by a hefty 4.5% in the first year of an ensuing 24-month expansion. Which is not to say, he cautions, that growth this time will match that pace, only that growth is likely to surprise by its strength, not weakness.
"And that is my case, too. The world is positioned for disappointment. But, in economic and financial matters, the world rarely gets what it expects. Pigou had humanity's number. The "error of pessimism" is born the size of a full-grown man—the size of the average adult economist, for example. "
***End of Selective Quotes***
It's nice to have a silent reader pick up my thinking and add to it with his own research.
Greenies
The environmental crypto-fascists have discovered the secret to meeting carbon limits: poverty. Watch out, common man, you and your relative prosperity are the target.
From the FT: "The recession has resulted in an unparalleled fall in greenhouse gas emissions, providing a “unique opportunity” to move the world away from high-carbon growth, an International Energy Agency study has found. "
By increasing poverty and lowering GDP, carbon limits can be reached. What a wonderful admission ! The battle of Man vs. The New Pagan Religion is on.
Word of the Day
"Proselytize" - verb [$10]; an oldie from the card file
Proselytize means to convert to a belief, life style, religion, etc.; to recruit
Sentence: As I daily proselytize my populist libertarianism and economic thinking in this blog, one of the joys is to see prominent writers accept and go on to propagate my ideas. Welcome, James Grant to the bunker !
La Parola della Settimana
"Benvenuto" - interjection (singular); "Benvenuti" - plural
Benvenuto! means welcome! Addressing more than one person, use Benvenuti!
La Frase: Benvenuto, James Grant, al Fortino.
Sentence: Welcome, James Grant, to the Bunker.
Monday, August 10, 2009
More Readers ...
This most influential blog seems to have quite a following at Barron's now. Mike Santoli at Barron's borrowed my thinking for his column in this week's edition, titled, "Can the S&P handle 1200?" I have written for months that 1200 was a logical place for stocks to go in a "return to normalcy" Here's how he phrased it: "Tough as it may be to place much faith in such a target, the 1200 level is of particular interest and importance. That's about where the market was when Lehman Brothers failed. Other indicators have reverted to pre-Lehman levels, as popularly noted -- including the pace of job losses, interbank lending conditions, spreads on auto-loan securities and volatility indexes."
That's also where the market was before the panic caused by the beefers and shorts. Now that Ben has dealt with most credit market problems, with commercial real estate being last and in process, a return to normal economic conditions should be at hand barring new troubles.
Worldwide economic conditions are improving. From FT: "Business confidence is surging across European manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead, according to reports on Monday that also highlight the turnround in countries such as Brazil and China. Optimism about production trends is back at levels seen before the intensification of the global slowdown late last year, and points to a clear growth in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010, the latest KPMG business outlook survey shows. The results are the latest evidence of a synchronised global rebound, possibly at a faster pace than expected until recently."
Copper prices seem to have a clear uptrend for now. At some point they'll level off, but if US housebuilding ever recovers - maybe another year - that metal will surge to the old high, in my humble opinion.
And one more sign of a return to normalcy: (WSJ) "Yanks Get Their Swagger Back
With Red Sox Streak Broken, Planets Are Realigned. ... How do we know the Yankees are playing well again? Because they're annoying. That's how it is with the Yankees: When they're playing poorly, they're strangely lovable in their vulnerability and fear of failure. But when they're rolling, like they are now after four straight wins against the Red Sox, they're ruthless."
I read that A-roid made a game winning hit. It's about time he earned his pay. The Red Faces ... oops ... Sox need to loosen their collars. Hmm David Roidtiz says some bad supplements caused his positive drug test. Sure ...
Actions
Doing nothing. Krypto Fund is doing well. Lately it's significant real estate holdings and REITs (via VNQ - the Vanguard real estate ETF) have perked up. In the last bull market (out of the 2002-3 bottom), those stocks performed very, very well. Real estate is a distinctive asset class and needs to be treated as such. If conditions just return to normal, VNQ will provide excellent gains.
Word of the Day
"Ersatz" - adjective [$10]
Ersatz means being a usual artificial and inferior substitute.
Sentence: The SEC has announced more hearings on short selling. I expect that corrupt agency will provide the same ersatz regulation as it has done for years as it operates out of the pockets of Wall Street.
Le Mot du Jour
"Conjoncture" - noun, feminine; and "Conjoncturel, -elle" - adjective.
Conjoncture means situation, circumstances (economic).
Conjoncturel means linked to the present economic climate.
La Phrase: La conjoncture dans le monde entier s'ameliore.
Sentence: The economic situation all over the world is improving.
That's also where the market was before the panic caused by the beefers and shorts. Now that Ben has dealt with most credit market problems, with commercial real estate being last and in process, a return to normal economic conditions should be at hand barring new troubles.
Worldwide economic conditions are improving. From FT: "Business confidence is surging across European manufacturing, with the UK and Italy taking the lead, according to reports on Monday that also highlight the turnround in countries such as Brazil and China. Optimism about production trends is back at levels seen before the intensification of the global slowdown late last year, and points to a clear growth in manufacturing activity by the middle of 2010, the latest KPMG business outlook survey shows. The results are the latest evidence of a synchronised global rebound, possibly at a faster pace than expected until recently."
Copper prices seem to have a clear uptrend for now. At some point they'll level off, but if US housebuilding ever recovers - maybe another year - that metal will surge to the old high, in my humble opinion.
And one more sign of a return to normalcy: (WSJ) "Yanks Get Their Swagger Back
With Red Sox Streak Broken, Planets Are Realigned. ... How do we know the Yankees are playing well again? Because they're annoying. That's how it is with the Yankees: When they're playing poorly, they're strangely lovable in their vulnerability and fear of failure. But when they're rolling, like they are now after four straight wins against the Red Sox, they're ruthless."
I read that A-roid made a game winning hit. It's about time he earned his pay. The Red Faces ... oops ... Sox need to loosen their collars. Hmm David Roidtiz says some bad supplements caused his positive drug test. Sure ...
Actions
Doing nothing. Krypto Fund is doing well. Lately it's significant real estate holdings and REITs (via VNQ - the Vanguard real estate ETF) have perked up. In the last bull market (out of the 2002-3 bottom), those stocks performed very, very well. Real estate is a distinctive asset class and needs to be treated as such. If conditions just return to normal, VNQ will provide excellent gains.
Word of the Day
"Ersatz" - adjective [$10]
Ersatz means being a usual artificial and inferior substitute.
Sentence: The SEC has announced more hearings on short selling. I expect that corrupt agency will provide the same ersatz regulation as it has done for years as it operates out of the pockets of Wall Street.
Le Mot du Jour
"Conjoncture" - noun, feminine; and "Conjoncturel, -elle" - adjective.
Conjoncture means situation, circumstances (economic).
Conjoncturel means linked to the present economic climate.
La Phrase: La conjoncture dans le monde entier s'ameliore.
Sentence: The economic situation all over the world is improving.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Continued Stimulus
From Briefing.com: "Reuters reports China will stick to its loose fiscal policy for at least three years despite a growing budget deficit, a government economist said in comments published on Wednesday. "Even by conservative estimates, the timeframe for this round of proactive fiscal policy should cover at least three years," Gao Peiyong, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in the People's Daily, the ruling Communist Party's mouthpiece. Gao said China's economic recovery was not yet on a solid footing, so an early end to the stimulus now coming from tax cuts and massive fiscal spending could lead to a new downturn. "It is both necessary and urgent to seek stable economic development at the cost of fiscal imbalance," Gao said. "It is inevitable that China's fiscal situation will run into difficulties in the not-too-distant future."
I wonder what that last sentence means ? Perhaps that China will print more renminbi / yuan ? Or run a deficit and be no longer able to buy US Treasuries or any other foreign currency ? That's something to ponder.
And this from the WSJ: "WASHINGTON -- Stimulus spending on infrastructure projects is moving slowly and many projects won't get started before the summer construction season ends, complicating the Obama administration's efforts to tout the impact of the $787 billion economic recovery act. ... The White House Recovery Office said Tuesday that government agencies have decided how to spend about $31 billion of the $73 billion going directly to construction projects, but it couldn't offer a figure on how much has actually been spent. "The Recovery Act was designed to ramp up over time with more spending later this year and early next, ensuring that we're steadily laying the foundation for a real, long-term recovery," said Ed DeSeve, senior adviser to the president for implementing the recovery act." "
In other words, those expecting a double dip recession might find they are wrong. The long, time-delayed stimulus spending here and in China would tend to lessen the growth off the bottom, but then give more staying power to keep going until the negative behavior of the private sector changes to positive outlooks. That would mean sustained growth and no double dip.
Markets
Surprisingly, stocks held over S&P 1000. If they can hold for a few more days to the end of the week, sidelined bears will surely be sweating terribly.
Word of the Day
"Transhumance" - noun [$10]
Transhumance means the seasonal moving of livestock to a different region.
Sentence (metaphorical usage): Study of the transhumance of beefer elephants in the stock markets can be a rewarding. On what do they graze ? Where are their water holes ? In the boom of the 1990s, their sustenance were technology stocks. In the 2003-2007 rebound, financial, energy and commodity stocks provided their feed and water. Will those alpine pastures be re-used or will new pastures be found over other ridges?
Verbum Diei
"Turba, -ae" - noun, feminine; first declension.
Turba mean the crowd.
Sententia: Vitate turbam.
Sentence: Avoid the crowd.
I wonder what that last sentence means ? Perhaps that China will print more renminbi / yuan ? Or run a deficit and be no longer able to buy US Treasuries or any other foreign currency ? That's something to ponder.
And this from the WSJ: "WASHINGTON -- Stimulus spending on infrastructure projects is moving slowly and many projects won't get started before the summer construction season ends, complicating the Obama administration's efforts to tout the impact of the $787 billion economic recovery act. ... The White House Recovery Office said Tuesday that government agencies have decided how to spend about $31 billion of the $73 billion going directly to construction projects, but it couldn't offer a figure on how much has actually been spent. "The Recovery Act was designed to ramp up over time with more spending later this year and early next, ensuring that we're steadily laying the foundation for a real, long-term recovery," said Ed DeSeve, senior adviser to the president for implementing the recovery act." "
In other words, those expecting a double dip recession might find they are wrong. The long, time-delayed stimulus spending here and in China would tend to lessen the growth off the bottom, but then give more staying power to keep going until the negative behavior of the private sector changes to positive outlooks. That would mean sustained growth and no double dip.
Markets
Surprisingly, stocks held over S&P 1000. If they can hold for a few more days to the end of the week, sidelined bears will surely be sweating terribly.
Word of the Day
"Transhumance" - noun [$10]
Transhumance means the seasonal moving of livestock to a different region.
Sentence (metaphorical usage): Study of the transhumance of beefer elephants in the stock markets can be a rewarding. On what do they graze ? Where are their water holes ? In the boom of the 1990s, their sustenance were technology stocks. In the 2003-2007 rebound, financial, energy and commodity stocks provided their feed and water. Will those alpine pastures be re-used or will new pastures be found over other ridges?
Verbum Diei
"Turba, -ae" - noun, feminine; first declension.
Turba mean the crowd.
Sententia: Vitate turbam.
Sentence: Avoid the crowd.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
In the Mud
The market is stuck in the mud, waiting for a tow truck in the form of some more good news about the economy. That will come, but when ? More real buyers are needed to overcome trader bearish "bets". Now we see the cost of the poorly designed Obama stimulus plan. Perhaps the word, "designed", overstates its organization. The Obama plan was mostly a hodgepodge of bureaucratic grabs at money. The hogs at the trough in DC elbowed out the real job creation spending.
The roads in Massachusetts are a mess of potholes, yet repair activites seem rare. What has been done for Internet infrastructure spending ? Talk.
China put its money to work quickly and has gotten results. DC dances around the maypole.
New tax increases on the "wealthy" are talking points to "pay" for health care.
New "carbon" tax would be huge over time, but it's just tilting at windmills. [That metaphor comes from the fine book by Cervantes, Don Quixote.]
The Pickens wind farm craters.
France gets 70% of its power from nuclear power, yet the US can't just copy France for a realistic, long term energy program.
G8 dopes talk about global warming - such hot air.
China top dog goes home to deal with rioters. Gosh, and yet talk of a new global reserve currency abound. I dealt with that nonsense here a few weeks ago. But the talk does probably scare off some real investors.
CA heads to oblivion. The pain to suppliers of services & goods to the state will soon kill businesses.
The Fed still does the job, but has just one more mission. Dear Ben: put together a plan to fund commercial mortgage refinancings. Plenty of good loans to good buildings with adequate income can't find a refinancing takeout. Your aid is needed. I had thought the TALF would do it, but the details are lacking. A five to seven year loan term is needed.
Eventually this will get worked out - maybe the fall. But the sloppiness of Obama's efforts to date are hurting now.
ISM data does show improvement. So not all is bad. People want to work to improve their lives. We still have that tailwind, unless government screws them too badly to wipe out hope.
Markets
I wait in cash in Obama Fund. Fido Fund is about 110% long. At 830 on the S&P, I will start looking again unless the news flow changes sooner.
Travel
Tomorrow early I drive to Ohio for an stay of uncertain duration for family matters. I do not have Internet access their with any consistency, so will not post new blogs until I return.
Word of the Day
"Provender" - noun [$10]
Provender means 1. dry food for domestic animals; 2. food, victuals.
Sentence: The big hogs in DC are getting most of the provender from the stimulus plan, so growth in the herd of common people is weaker than it would be had the food been better distributed. Thanks, Obama, for doing a lazy job tending your flock so far.
The roads in Massachusetts are a mess of potholes, yet repair activites seem rare. What has been done for Internet infrastructure spending ? Talk.
China put its money to work quickly and has gotten results. DC dances around the maypole.
New tax increases on the "wealthy" are talking points to "pay" for health care.
New "carbon" tax would be huge over time, but it's just tilting at windmills. [That metaphor comes from the fine book by Cervantes, Don Quixote.]
The Pickens wind farm craters.
France gets 70% of its power from nuclear power, yet the US can't just copy France for a realistic, long term energy program.
G8 dopes talk about global warming - such hot air.
China top dog goes home to deal with rioters. Gosh, and yet talk of a new global reserve currency abound. I dealt with that nonsense here a few weeks ago. But the talk does probably scare off some real investors.
CA heads to oblivion. The pain to suppliers of services & goods to the state will soon kill businesses.
The Fed still does the job, but has just one more mission. Dear Ben: put together a plan to fund commercial mortgage refinancings. Plenty of good loans to good buildings with adequate income can't find a refinancing takeout. Your aid is needed. I had thought the TALF would do it, but the details are lacking. A five to seven year loan term is needed.
Eventually this will get worked out - maybe the fall. But the sloppiness of Obama's efforts to date are hurting now.
ISM data does show improvement. So not all is bad. People want to work to improve their lives. We still have that tailwind, unless government screws them too badly to wipe out hope.
Markets
I wait in cash in Obama Fund. Fido Fund is about 110% long. At 830 on the S&P, I will start looking again unless the news flow changes sooner.
Travel
Tomorrow early I drive to Ohio for an stay of uncertain duration for family matters. I do not have Internet access their with any consistency, so will not post new blogs until I return.
Word of the Day
"Provender" - noun [$10]
Provender means 1. dry food for domestic animals; 2. food, victuals.
Sentence: The big hogs in DC are getting most of the provender from the stimulus plan, so growth in the herd of common people is weaker than it would be had the food been better distributed. Thanks, Obama, for doing a lazy job tending your flock so far.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Will the Sun Ever Shine Again ?
Living here in northeast Massachusetts, the question should be taken literally. For two weeks it has been cold and rainy every day. My small yard will soon be a mushroom patch. At least I live on a hillside, so flooding is not a worry. My position was well-selected for defense against man and nature.
Listening to financial news, that question takes on sardonic meaning. Bad news is met by renewed gloom. Good news is re-interpreted as either bad or merely temporary. Pundits and some Nobel laureate economists look for a new wave of weakness upon any positive uptick.
Let's look at few facts - from FT, of course.
"The global downturn appeared close to a bottom on Wednesday after manufacturing figures from across the world suggested the worldwide recession was running out of steam in all big economies.
"The welcome news comes after nine months of the sharpest contraction in global manufacturing output since the second world war and a dramatic plunge in world trade as buyers of capital goods and consumer durables effectively went on strike. ...
"The June data on Wednesday came from a series of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, the area of the global economy hardest hit by the recession. Although the headline figures were positive only in China, the manufacturing output element of the data was positive in the US, the UK and Japan as well. "
I suppose I'll be accused of data mining. If so, it's a world-wide mine.
Markets
Yesterday was a typical day. Real buyers stepped up early, trend-followers piled on, some shorts covered. Then real buyers used patience and the beefer traders bailed and a few shorts became bold. A solid gain, if unimpressive. Beefer antics are tiring.
Word of the Day
"Salacious" - adjective [$10]; an old one from the card file
Salacious means 1. arousing sexual desire or imagination; 2. lecherous, lustful
Sentence: The salacious behavior of another Bible-thumping Republican politician is symptomatic of the decline of that party.
Le Mot Du Jour
"Chômage" - noun, masculine
Chômage means unemployment.
La Phrase: Le taux de chômage haussera aujourd'hui.
Sentence: The unemployment rate will rise today.
[By the way, when I'm unprepared, I fall back on French as it's my best foreign language.]
Listening to financial news, that question takes on sardonic meaning. Bad news is met by renewed gloom. Good news is re-interpreted as either bad or merely temporary. Pundits and some Nobel laureate economists look for a new wave of weakness upon any positive uptick.
Let's look at few facts - from FT, of course.
"The global downturn appeared close to a bottom on Wednesday after manufacturing figures from across the world suggested the worldwide recession was running out of steam in all big economies.
"The welcome news comes after nine months of the sharpest contraction in global manufacturing output since the second world war and a dramatic plunge in world trade as buyers of capital goods and consumer durables effectively went on strike. ...
"The June data on Wednesday came from a series of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, the area of the global economy hardest hit by the recession. Although the headline figures were positive only in China, the manufacturing output element of the data was positive in the US, the UK and Japan as well. "
I suppose I'll be accused of data mining. If so, it's a world-wide mine.
Markets
Yesterday was a typical day. Real buyers stepped up early, trend-followers piled on, some shorts covered. Then real buyers used patience and the beefer traders bailed and a few shorts became bold. A solid gain, if unimpressive. Beefer antics are tiring.
Word of the Day
"Salacious" - adjective [$10]; an old one from the card file
Salacious means 1. arousing sexual desire or imagination; 2. lecherous, lustful
Sentence: The salacious behavior of another Bible-thumping Republican politician is symptomatic of the decline of that party.
Le Mot Du Jour
"Chômage" - noun, masculine
Chômage means unemployment.
La Phrase: Le taux de chômage haussera aujourd'hui.
Sentence: The unemployment rate will rise today.
[By the way, when I'm unprepared, I fall back on French as it's my best foreign language.]
Monday, June 22, 2009
Monday Meandering
News, stocks, weather ... trendless lately.
In case anyone missed it with all the bloviation about the 40% rally from the lows, all that "rally" really did was erase the February Obama-Timmy panic. Prices are mostly just back to the rough levels of October. What does this mean ? Fears of another downleg are being erased. Now dealing with the beefer-induced recession ...
I wonder how many people notice that huge "air pocket" in resistance from S&P 900 to S&P 1200 ? That's the drop caused by the Viking shorts & beefers in raids on the world financial system - courtesy of the arms race approved by the SEC and Elmer (viz., removal of uptick rule, creation & non-regulation of credit default swap derivatives, no naked short rules, non-regulation of hedge funds, etc.) and the huge concentration of wealth in trading hedge funds by the dumb rich.
My take: a bit of good news in economic growth will cause a buying panic and explosion in stock prices to S&P 1200 "real" resistance.
FT: "German business confidence has brightened more than expected this month with companies in Europe’s largest economy becoming markedly more upbeat on prospects for the next six months."
Blabberg says insiders are selling heavily. I suppose they have gotten the message of diversification, viz., don't put most of your net worth in your companies' stock. If the company gets into trouble, you can lose both your job and your life's savings.
Lots of "talks" going on: Turkey talks to IMF, Russia talks about deep nuclear cuts, China and US in talks on military. Xstrata in merger talks with Anglo American. Maybe Obamitis is contagious - Obamitis is a new syndrome of talking, not doing.
Voting in Iran seems to have been conducted in the style of old Chicago. Surveys show more votes cast that voters in many places. Hmmm ...
Doing nothing today, except working on my languages. If "they" knock stocks down to S&P 900, I'll start looking for adds.
Word of the Day
"Declamation" - noun [$10] and "Declaim" - verb [$10]
Declamation means 1. act of speaking pompously or bombastically: harangue; 2. rhetorically delivered speech or reciting in elocution.
Declaim means 1. to speak or utter rhetorically or affectedly; 2. practise oratory or recitation; 3. protest forcefully; 4. deliver an impassioned (rather than reasoned) speech.
Sentence: Obama is obviously a master of declamation, but as for "doing", his very poor record in filling many important Federal posts shows he does not have management skill.
La Palabra de la Semana
[That's "the word of the day" in Spanish. My multilingual exercises in using the verb, "to drink" continue.]
"Tomar" - verb, regular -ar conjugation
Tomar means to drink.
La frase: Ayer tomé dos cervezas. Yesterday I drank two beers. Ahora tomo un café sin leche o azúcar. Now I am drinking a coffee without milk or sugar. [that's also 'un café solo', I think.] Tomaré dos cervezas esta noche. I will drink two beers tonight.
Notice that like Latin, Spanish usually leaves the subject pronouns out, as they are redundant due to the verb endings. Polish & Italian do that, too.
In case anyone missed it with all the bloviation about the 40% rally from the lows, all that "rally" really did was erase the February Obama-Timmy panic. Prices are mostly just back to the rough levels of October. What does this mean ? Fears of another downleg are being erased. Now dealing with the beefer-induced recession ...
I wonder how many people notice that huge "air pocket" in resistance from S&P 900 to S&P 1200 ? That's the drop caused by the Viking shorts & beefers in raids on the world financial system - courtesy of the arms race approved by the SEC and Elmer (viz., removal of uptick rule, creation & non-regulation of credit default swap derivatives, no naked short rules, non-regulation of hedge funds, etc.) and the huge concentration of wealth in trading hedge funds by the dumb rich.
My take: a bit of good news in economic growth will cause a buying panic and explosion in stock prices to S&P 1200 "real" resistance.
FT: "German business confidence has brightened more than expected this month with companies in Europe’s largest economy becoming markedly more upbeat on prospects for the next six months."
Blabberg says insiders are selling heavily. I suppose they have gotten the message of diversification, viz., don't put most of your net worth in your companies' stock. If the company gets into trouble, you can lose both your job and your life's savings.
Lots of "talks" going on: Turkey talks to IMF, Russia talks about deep nuclear cuts, China and US in talks on military. Xstrata in merger talks with Anglo American. Maybe Obamitis is contagious - Obamitis is a new syndrome of talking, not doing.
Voting in Iran seems to have been conducted in the style of old Chicago. Surveys show more votes cast that voters in many places. Hmmm ...
Doing nothing today, except working on my languages. If "they" knock stocks down to S&P 900, I'll start looking for adds.
Word of the Day
"Declamation" - noun [$10] and "Declaim" - verb [$10]
Declamation means 1. act of speaking pompously or bombastically: harangue; 2. rhetorically delivered speech or reciting in elocution.
Declaim means 1. to speak or utter rhetorically or affectedly; 2. practise oratory or recitation; 3. protest forcefully; 4. deliver an impassioned (rather than reasoned) speech.
Sentence: Obama is obviously a master of declamation, but as for "doing", his very poor record in filling many important Federal posts shows he does not have management skill.
La Palabra de la Semana
[That's "the word of the day" in Spanish. My multilingual exercises in using the verb, "to drink" continue.]
"Tomar" - verb, regular -ar conjugation
Tomar means to drink.
La frase: Ayer tomé dos cervezas. Yesterday I drank two beers. Ahora tomo un café sin leche o azúcar. Now I am drinking a coffee without milk or sugar. [that's also 'un café solo', I think.] Tomaré dos cervezas esta noche. I will drink two beers tonight.
Notice that like Latin, Spanish usually leaves the subject pronouns out, as they are redundant due to the verb endings. Polish & Italian do that, too.
Friday, June 19, 2009
Back from the Beast
New York City seems to be coping quite well ... so far. Of course the bears are talking gloom, but the bar was packed, as were the lunch rooms at the clubs. Even the dining room was quite busy.
Fashions seemed alive, too. I saw fewer men in "undertaker" uniforms, and less black in women's fashions. No 1970s era "earth -mother" fashions were in sight. Fashionable tailored pants or skirts several inches over the knee was the rule. The Apple store on Fifth Avenue was crowded at 3PM on a weekday. The fashion indicator is NOT 'flashing" a depression or even a severe recession.
I'll read more about Timmy's financial regulation reforms, but so far, it's OK. He included regulations for hedge funds and all derivatives - both good. I have some problems with relying on these agencies like the SEC. It's still obviously on the take from the Street, as it continues to approve these fraudulent ETFs designed solely for day trading. But I need to read more and will comment more fully later.
Hmmm ... the index of leading indicators is up again. The Philly Fed - for what that's worth - was OK. I guess that cancels the recent poor Empire State number. Net zero, I'd say.
US News & World Report (online): "The Labor Department reported today that the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell for the first time since January, a sign that the economy is slowly recovering. Total unemployment rolls declined by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the first week of June, the largest weekly drop in more than seven years. The decline also breaks a streak of 21 consecutive weeks in which the number of people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week increased."
Sounds like the recession is over and growth is occurring. It's a long way back up, but ... up is up.
I suppose I'll be accused of "data mining". But gold nuggets found when mining are gold and up is up.
The recession ends when growth returns from whatever absolute level. That's the meaning of the terms. A "recession" has to have "recessing" - i. e., declines. Period.
An astute commentor suggested I look at RIMM for a buy. I had deferred for awhile, looking & thinking. I like what I see and plan to buy it for Fido Fund today. From my point of view, the Apple iPhone gets the business of the young and music/entertainment oriented consumer, while RIMM's Blackberry gets the business of the email oriented person. The markets are huge and both can do well. I like the revenue growth and new product innovations. Mrs. B has AAPL in her Sky Fund, so I'll put RIMM in Fido Fund.
Today is triple witching day so volatility could be large. If we get a pullback to the S&P 900 area, I'll probably add to many positions. Otherwise, I'll go over the Obama positions today to see what has had good dips.
Word of the Day
"Geminal" - adjective [$10]
Geminal means 1. of or relating to germs or of the nature of a germ; 2. in the earliest stage of development; 3. productive of new ideas.
Sentence: My language skills in French are rather developed, but for German, Polish, Italian and Spanish, they are much more geminal.
[In the spirit of a multilingual blog, I am switching to a penta-lingual "Word of the Week" for French, German, Polish, Italian and Spanish. I'll try one or two words of each a week and write a sentence using them. For some languages in which I have less skill, the words and sentences will be rather simple for awhile. Important words like drink, beer, wine and similar crucial concepts for humanity will be foundation for awhile.]
Das Worte der Woche
"Trinken" - verb, strong.
Trinken means to drink. The simple past Stem is trank. The past participle is getrunken. One can quickly recognize the common proto-Germanic roots of English and modern German. Compare drink-drank-drunk to trinken-trank-getrunken.
Der Satz: (A) Ich habe drei Biere gestern getrunken. OR (B) Gestern habe ich drei Biere getrunken. OR (C) Ich trank drie Biere gestern. OR (D) Gestern trank ich drei Biere.
Sentence: (A) I drank three beers yesterday. (B) Yesterday I drank three beers. C translates the same as A but uses the simple past tense instead of the conversational past. D translates the same as B, but also uses the simple past tense. German word order is quite sensitive. Putting the adverb, "yesterday" requires significant changes in verb-subject positions in German, versus no changes in English.
Fashions seemed alive, too. I saw fewer men in "undertaker" uniforms, and less black in women's fashions. No 1970s era "earth -mother" fashions were in sight. Fashionable tailored pants or skirts several inches over the knee was the rule. The Apple store on Fifth Avenue was crowded at 3PM on a weekday. The fashion indicator is NOT 'flashing" a depression or even a severe recession.
I'll read more about Timmy's financial regulation reforms, but so far, it's OK. He included regulations for hedge funds and all derivatives - both good. I have some problems with relying on these agencies like the SEC. It's still obviously on the take from the Street, as it continues to approve these fraudulent ETFs designed solely for day trading. But I need to read more and will comment more fully later.
Hmmm ... the index of leading indicators is up again. The Philly Fed - for what that's worth - was OK. I guess that cancels the recent poor Empire State number. Net zero, I'd say.
US News & World Report (online): "The Labor Department reported today that the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell for the first time since January, a sign that the economy is slowly recovering. Total unemployment rolls declined by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the first week of June, the largest weekly drop in more than seven years. The decline also breaks a streak of 21 consecutive weeks in which the number of people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week increased."
Sounds like the recession is over and growth is occurring. It's a long way back up, but ... up is up.
I suppose I'll be accused of "data mining". But gold nuggets found when mining are gold and up is up.
The recession ends when growth returns from whatever absolute level. That's the meaning of the terms. A "recession" has to have "recessing" - i. e., declines. Period.
An astute commentor suggested I look at RIMM for a buy. I had deferred for awhile, looking & thinking. I like what I see and plan to buy it for Fido Fund today. From my point of view, the Apple iPhone gets the business of the young and music/entertainment oriented consumer, while RIMM's Blackberry gets the business of the email oriented person. The markets are huge and both can do well. I like the revenue growth and new product innovations. Mrs. B has AAPL in her Sky Fund, so I'll put RIMM in Fido Fund.
Today is triple witching day so volatility could be large. If we get a pullback to the S&P 900 area, I'll probably add to many positions. Otherwise, I'll go over the Obama positions today to see what has had good dips.
Word of the Day
"Geminal" - adjective [$10]
Geminal means 1. of or relating to germs or of the nature of a germ; 2. in the earliest stage of development; 3. productive of new ideas.
Sentence: My language skills in French are rather developed, but for German, Polish, Italian and Spanish, they are much more geminal.
[In the spirit of a multilingual blog, I am switching to a penta-lingual "Word of the Week" for French, German, Polish, Italian and Spanish. I'll try one or two words of each a week and write a sentence using them. For some languages in which I have less skill, the words and sentences will be rather simple for awhile. Important words like drink, beer, wine and similar crucial concepts for humanity will be foundation for awhile.]
Das Worte der Woche
"Trinken" - verb, strong.
Trinken means to drink. The simple past Stem is trank. The past participle is getrunken. One can quickly recognize the common proto-Germanic roots of English and modern German. Compare drink-drank-drunk to trinken-trank-getrunken.
Der Satz: (A) Ich habe drei Biere gestern getrunken. OR (B) Gestern habe ich drei Biere getrunken. OR (C) Ich trank drie Biere gestern. OR (D) Gestern trank ich drei Biere.
Sentence: (A) I drank three beers yesterday. (B) Yesterday I drank three beers. C translates the same as A but uses the simple past tense instead of the conversational past. D translates the same as B, but also uses the simple past tense. German word order is quite sensitive. Putting the adverb, "yesterday" requires significant changes in verb-subject positions in German, versus no changes in English.
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