Yup, that's me today as I obey the Krypto Fund trading rules. A few months ago after a beefer-induced dip in stock prices, I put on the first 1/2 of a "Buy low, Sell High" trade in US stocks in Krypto Fund's US stock position. Futures prices this AM indicate the market should open up over 1200 for the S&P 500. That's the target so I'm doing the "Sell High" now, at the open.
I'm bullish, but I like to be heavy when prices are low and light at they reach intermediate term highs. Then I ride the new wave up until it's time to cut back more. S&P 1200 has been by break point level for awhile and at that level I want to simply have normal US stock allocations. This dictates today's significant sale.
Krypto Fund is up over 11% year to date, which is fine performance, stomping on many, many overpaid beefer managers. They are mostly scam artists, anyway. Good doggie, Krypto, here's your fee - a tasty dog biscuit.
Word of the Day
"Weal" - noun [$10]
Weal means (I) welfare, prosperity, good fortune; (II - alt. usage) a raised or reddened area of skin usu. accompanied by itching.
Sentence: Why worry about investing for retirement? One should simply listen to the machine, i. e., Krypto's machine, to keep one's retirement balances in wondrous weal without anxiety. Obey the machine ....
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Whither Now ?
Markets
Yesterday's ringing rejection of sub 10,000 territory of the Dow seems likely, barring new "news", to be an intermediate term bottom. The bears found few US sellers lower and upon that miss, buyers - short covering and nibblers following this blog's recent moves ;) - ran the table.
Euro-fears still abound but what else is knew ... or different from what has already been experienced ? The world seems OK except for Korea. European companies can still make plenty of money selling goods in the US and in the emerging markets. Obviously the Euro is now dead for a decade as a reserve currency. That realization simply means that perception matches reality. This site exposed the delusion of the near-term idea of the Euro getting that status months ago.
Fears of the dollar losing its position in the world - so prevalent late last year - are now shown to be the silly blather that this site called them at the time.
Korea
Why is North Korea so bold now compared to a year ago ?
The answer is Barry's big mouth. Barry (aka Obama) changed US nuclear policy recently to state the US will not use nuclear weapons first. Sure, he added some qualifiers, but who believes those ? Not Kim Jong Il.
If North Korea attacks the South, Barry will have been the enabler.
Derivatives
A famous quote from T. S. Eliot is "We had the experience, but missed the meaning ... "
That seems likely coming true in the derivatives regulation fight in DC - at least it applies to Barney Frank. What makes a bank "Too Big to Fail " ? The answer is the counterparty risks. What are the biggest of those other than mostly overnight trades ? Derivatives.
Derivatives can persist for years and extend to all other financial institutions. Breaking that link is absolutely crucial to prevent one firm from dragging down the rest. Ring-fencing a bank's derivatives operations would do that. Barney the Boob wants to cut that part from the bill. That's simply foolish and exemplifies the T. S. Eliot quote.
Word of the Day
"Aporia" - noun [$10]
Aporia means 1. Rhetorical. an expression of doubt; 2. a doubtful matter; a perplexing difficulty.
Sentence: [T. S. Eliot quoted in "The Cambridge Companion of T. S. Eliot", page 48] "the old aporia of Authority v. Individual Judgement". That phrase uses aporia in the sense of "a perplexing difficulty". Fraternal Libertarianism resolves that aporia by limiting regulation and Authority to be used only on (not by) the ruling classes (aka the rich & powerful).
Yesterday's ringing rejection of sub 10,000 territory of the Dow seems likely, barring new "news", to be an intermediate term bottom. The bears found few US sellers lower and upon that miss, buyers - short covering and nibblers following this blog's recent moves ;) - ran the table.
Euro-fears still abound but what else is knew ... or different from what has already been experienced ? The world seems OK except for Korea. European companies can still make plenty of money selling goods in the US and in the emerging markets. Obviously the Euro is now dead for a decade as a reserve currency. That realization simply means that perception matches reality. This site exposed the delusion of the near-term idea of the Euro getting that status months ago.
Fears of the dollar losing its position in the world - so prevalent late last year - are now shown to be the silly blather that this site called them at the time.
Korea
Why is North Korea so bold now compared to a year ago ?
The answer is Barry's big mouth. Barry (aka Obama) changed US nuclear policy recently to state the US will not use nuclear weapons first. Sure, he added some qualifiers, but who believes those ? Not Kim Jong Il.
If North Korea attacks the South, Barry will have been the enabler.
Derivatives
A famous quote from T. S. Eliot is "We had the experience, but missed the meaning ... "
That seems likely coming true in the derivatives regulation fight in DC - at least it applies to Barney Frank. What makes a bank "Too Big to Fail " ? The answer is the counterparty risks. What are the biggest of those other than mostly overnight trades ? Derivatives.
Derivatives can persist for years and extend to all other financial institutions. Breaking that link is absolutely crucial to prevent one firm from dragging down the rest. Ring-fencing a bank's derivatives operations would do that. Barney the Boob wants to cut that part from the bill. That's simply foolish and exemplifies the T. S. Eliot quote.
Word of the Day
"Aporia" - noun [$10]
Aporia means 1. Rhetorical. an expression of doubt; 2. a doubtful matter; a perplexing difficulty.
Sentence: [T. S. Eliot quoted in "The Cambridge Companion of T. S. Eliot", page 48] "the old aporia of Authority v. Individual Judgement". That phrase uses aporia in the sense of "a perplexing difficulty". Fraternal Libertarianism resolves that aporia by limiting regulation and Authority to be used only on (not by) the ruling classes (aka the rich & powerful).
Friday, March 26, 2010
It's Just a Matter of Time ...
for US interest rates to go up ... a lot.
They are below equilibrium levels versus long term core inflation of 2%. And the supply is huge, a tidal wave of huge Treasury auctions as far as the eye can see. Corporate and mortgage competition is low due to the weak economy. What will have IF house sales grow to normal levels ? Demand for mortgages will grow precisely when the Fed is no longer a buyer, but is a seller.
The competition from corporations and households for loans is very weak. Household debt levels keep dropping. Banks flush with excess reserves put the money in T-bills and short term Treasury notes. When their customers start to want money - and when the economy is obviously stable so banks will be willing to lend - that source of demand will vaporize.
Foreign buyers have gotten a good return lately as the dollar strength gave them a bonus. But soon the dollar will stop going up and those buyers will face losses IF the dollar resumes its long term decline.
Yesterday's auction showed some weakness - WSJ: "A sudden drop-off in investor demand for U.S. Treasury notes is raising questions about whether interest rates will finally begin a march higher—a climb that would jack up the government's borrowing costs and spell trouble for the fragile housing market."
Maybe the calendar in Japan caused the drop-off. Or may it was the derivative market - WSJ: "Adding to the focus on the Treasury market's woes this week has been an unusual development in an important, but usually ignored, market: interest-rate swaps. These common derivatives entail contracts that typically involve trading one stream of interest income for another. And in the past week, investors are being paid more to own U.S. Treasuries than U.S. corporate bonds."
Why does this derivative market exist ? It's just a casino for hedge funds and banks to pits trading skills against each other. It serves no useful public purpose. And it can impact the "real" market for bonds. Get rid of it NOW.
The huge tidal wave of governmental demand for debt in the US will soon run into natural demand from a stable economy. That collision will cause trouble for the stock market, in my humble opinion.
Hence my neutral - bearish intermediate term outlook until that rate rise gets priced in.
Word of the Day
"Trenchant" - adjective [$10]
Trenchant means 1. lean, incisive (a trenchant comment); 2. forceful, effective and vigorous; 3. caustic, cutting (trenchant criticism); distinct, clear cut.
Sentence: Writing a trenchant blog every business day is not easy; a lack of ideas occasionally occurs and then ... I wing it.
They are below equilibrium levels versus long term core inflation of 2%. And the supply is huge, a tidal wave of huge Treasury auctions as far as the eye can see. Corporate and mortgage competition is low due to the weak economy. What will have IF house sales grow to normal levels ? Demand for mortgages will grow precisely when the Fed is no longer a buyer, but is a seller.
The competition from corporations and households for loans is very weak. Household debt levels keep dropping. Banks flush with excess reserves put the money in T-bills and short term Treasury notes. When their customers start to want money - and when the economy is obviously stable so banks will be willing to lend - that source of demand will vaporize.
Foreign buyers have gotten a good return lately as the dollar strength gave them a bonus. But soon the dollar will stop going up and those buyers will face losses IF the dollar resumes its long term decline.
Yesterday's auction showed some weakness - WSJ: "A sudden drop-off in investor demand for U.S. Treasury notes is raising questions about whether interest rates will finally begin a march higher—a climb that would jack up the government's borrowing costs and spell trouble for the fragile housing market."
Maybe the calendar in Japan caused the drop-off. Or may it was the derivative market - WSJ: "Adding to the focus on the Treasury market's woes this week has been an unusual development in an important, but usually ignored, market: interest-rate swaps. These common derivatives entail contracts that typically involve trading one stream of interest income for another. And in the past week, investors are being paid more to own U.S. Treasuries than U.S. corporate bonds."
Why does this derivative market exist ? It's just a casino for hedge funds and banks to pits trading skills against each other. It serves no useful public purpose. And it can impact the "real" market for bonds. Get rid of it NOW.
The huge tidal wave of governmental demand for debt in the US will soon run into natural demand from a stable economy. That collision will cause trouble for the stock market, in my humble opinion.
Hence my neutral - bearish intermediate term outlook until that rate rise gets priced in.
Word of the Day
"Trenchant" - adjective [$10]
Trenchant means 1. lean, incisive (a trenchant comment); 2. forceful, effective and vigorous; 3. caustic, cutting (trenchant criticism); distinct, clear cut.
Sentence: Writing a trenchant blog every business day is not easy; a lack of ideas occasionally occurs and then ... I wing it.
Friday, October 23, 2009
TGIF
The market filled in Wednesday's closing crater yesterday. I suppose one could say that "real buyers" snapped up bargains. Or that "real buyers" saw good earnings on companies such as MMM and put more money to work. Or perhaps shorts put on Wednesday were covered. Or that Galleon liquidation selling pressure eased, allowing stocks to rise from light buying. Or underperforming beefers are trying frantically to catch up. Or perhaps all of these together.
My thinking on the cause of this long, grinding run is the combination of (A) the kindling - a slow recognition by more and more investors that the economy is recovering and will return to a reasonable level of activity in 2010, plus (B) the heavy fuel - insurance companies who sold variable annuities with floor guarantees distributed around S&P 1000 to 1300 are slowly being forced to re-buy stocks. I had written once not too long ago that the stunning selling panic of September and October 2008 was likely partly caused by the selling of such holdings as annuity floor guarantees were being hit. This is quite like the "portfolio insurance" debacle on the Crash of 1987. In 2008, the selling was spread over a much longer time than one day as the distribution of guaranteed minimums was broader in "price space". The reversal re-buying will necessarily be spread over more prices, too. Such is what we have seen in this long, grinding run.
From the monthly S&P chart and assuming a seven year maturity, the bulk the guarantees must have been written in the S&P 1100 to 1300 range, with somewhat less in the range of 1000 to 1100.
What does this mean for the future ?
This annuity re-buying pressure can continue but will peak around S&P 1200 - maybe 1150 to 1250 - a range in price space. After that, the economy must have recovered to normal conditions to provide not only earnings but also good prospects for earnings growth in 2011.
Also, it means that unless the economy DOES improve sufficiently to attract other buying support (beefers, mutual funds, etc), that a wave of selling could re-emerge if prices start going lower again.
For now, I'll ride the bull elephant to the next water hole.
As for new money, it's going into my cash account. I don't see any "screaming buys" now. And I don't have strong new ideas ... yet. I'm, beginning to noodle over where to look for that new water hole.
PS: I mentioned something to Mrs. B yesterday about her stocks in Sky Fund. Many of the big companies whose shares she owns are within easy striking distance of all time highs. One example is MMM. To me, many indices are deceptively negative, as their heavy weights to financials misses strength in big industrial and consumer products names.
PPS: I suppose you can guess that I think such guaranteed floors on stock investments should be prohibited, whether in variable annuities or in any other derivative contract, except via true stock options.
Word of the Day
"Ethotic" - adjective [$10]
Ethotic means of, relating to of characterized by ethos (from Greek - nature, disposition). An ethotic argument is one that attacks the character of the opponent. It's a specific form of argumentum ad hominem.
Sentence: Why does so much American political speech descend instantly to ethotic arguments ? Perhaps there is little ability in the ruling classes to generate true solutions. Or few of the noble virtues in them . Or both.
My thinking on the cause of this long, grinding run is the combination of (A) the kindling - a slow recognition by more and more investors that the economy is recovering and will return to a reasonable level of activity in 2010, plus (B) the heavy fuel - insurance companies who sold variable annuities with floor guarantees distributed around S&P 1000 to 1300 are slowly being forced to re-buy stocks. I had written once not too long ago that the stunning selling panic of September and October 2008 was likely partly caused by the selling of such holdings as annuity floor guarantees were being hit. This is quite like the "portfolio insurance" debacle on the Crash of 1987. In 2008, the selling was spread over a much longer time than one day as the distribution of guaranteed minimums was broader in "price space". The reversal re-buying will necessarily be spread over more prices, too. Such is what we have seen in this long, grinding run.
From the monthly S&P chart and assuming a seven year maturity, the bulk the guarantees must have been written in the S&P 1100 to 1300 range, with somewhat less in the range of 1000 to 1100.
What does this mean for the future ?
This annuity re-buying pressure can continue but will peak around S&P 1200 - maybe 1150 to 1250 - a range in price space. After that, the economy must have recovered to normal conditions to provide not only earnings but also good prospects for earnings growth in 2011.
Also, it means that unless the economy DOES improve sufficiently to attract other buying support (beefers, mutual funds, etc), that a wave of selling could re-emerge if prices start going lower again.
For now, I'll ride the bull elephant to the next water hole.
As for new money, it's going into my cash account. I don't see any "screaming buys" now. And I don't have strong new ideas ... yet. I'm, beginning to noodle over where to look for that new water hole.
PS: I mentioned something to Mrs. B yesterday about her stocks in Sky Fund. Many of the big companies whose shares she owns are within easy striking distance of all time highs. One example is MMM. To me, many indices are deceptively negative, as their heavy weights to financials misses strength in big industrial and consumer products names.
PPS: I suppose you can guess that I think such guaranteed floors on stock investments should be prohibited, whether in variable annuities or in any other derivative contract, except via true stock options.
Word of the Day
"Ethotic" - adjective [$10]
Ethotic means of, relating to of characterized by ethos (from Greek - nature, disposition). An ethotic argument is one that attacks the character of the opponent. It's a specific form of argumentum ad hominem.
Sentence: Why does so much American political speech descend instantly to ethotic arguments ? Perhaps there is little ability in the ruling classes to generate true solutions. Or few of the noble virtues in them . Or both.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Good Earnings News
Intel reported surprisingly good earnings and revenues last evening. From Briefing.com:
"Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.28; revenues fell 8.0% year/year to $9.4 bln vs the $9.04 bln consensus. Intel reports Q3 gross margin 57.6% vs 55.5% consensus and prior guidance to upper half of 51-55% range. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $9.7-10.5 bln vs. $9.51 bln consensus. Intel guides Q4 gross margin 59-65% vs 56.7% consensus ... "
"China had a particularly strong qtr. US continued to ride strong consumer sales with the back-to-school cycle exceeding co's expectations... Channel sales out have shown healthy sequential growth for three quarters in a row. Inventory in the channel remains slightly below normal levels ... "
From memory, a majority of Intel's revenues come from overseas sales. This is my thesis for the call option purchases with expiration dates well beyond earnings reports. In hindsight, I suppose I should have included Intel in the stock selections. Oh well ...
Actions
Doing nothing but sitting and awaiting earnings reports from the companies in my call option book. As mentioned before, if the stocks ramp strongly into earnings, I'll likely take some profits pre-earnings. Also, hitting S&P 1100 will likely induce me to take partial profits as that was part of my initial plan. I don't usually change a plan if and as it works out. Doing that without new good cause seems to very bad luck - perhaps it shows hubris and angers the trading gods.
Word of the Day
"Recondite" - adjective [$10] an old word from the card file
Recondite means 1. hidden from sight: concealed; 2. incomprehensible to one of ordinary understanding or knowledge: deep; 3. of, relating to, or dealing with something little known or obscure.
Sentence: After listening to Sen. Olympia Snow's reasons for voting for the committee version of ObamaCare, her true reasons remain recondite. All she really said was the "something" needed to be done. Wow, such erudition ! Not ! Fool or knave ? I suspect "fool" in this case. A knave would surely have had a better reason.
"Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.28; revenues fell 8.0% year/year to $9.4 bln vs the $9.04 bln consensus. Intel reports Q3 gross margin 57.6% vs 55.5% consensus and prior guidance to upper half of 51-55% range. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $9.7-10.5 bln vs. $9.51 bln consensus. Intel guides Q4 gross margin 59-65% vs 56.7% consensus ... "
"China had a particularly strong qtr. US continued to ride strong consumer sales with the back-to-school cycle exceeding co's expectations... Channel sales out have shown healthy sequential growth for three quarters in a row. Inventory in the channel remains slightly below normal levels ... "
From memory, a majority of Intel's revenues come from overseas sales. This is my thesis for the call option purchases with expiration dates well beyond earnings reports. In hindsight, I suppose I should have included Intel in the stock selections. Oh well ...
Actions
Doing nothing but sitting and awaiting earnings reports from the companies in my call option book. As mentioned before, if the stocks ramp strongly into earnings, I'll likely take some profits pre-earnings. Also, hitting S&P 1100 will likely induce me to take partial profits as that was part of my initial plan. I don't usually change a plan if and as it works out. Doing that without new good cause seems to very bad luck - perhaps it shows hubris and angers the trading gods.
Word of the Day
"Recondite" - adjective [$10] an old word from the card file
Recondite means 1. hidden from sight: concealed; 2. incomprehensible to one of ordinary understanding or knowledge: deep; 3. of, relating to, or dealing with something little known or obscure.
Sentence: After listening to Sen. Olympia Snow's reasons for voting for the committee version of ObamaCare, her true reasons remain recondite. All she really said was the "something" needed to be done. Wow, such erudition ! Not ! Fool or knave ? I suspect "fool" in this case. A knave would surely have had a better reason.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Big Move Up. Now What?
Yesterday the S&P 500 cracked through the upper resistance levels to move to intermediate term open water.
Why?
WSJ: "Driving stocks and commodities was news from across the globe that orders for manufactured goods were finally beginning to recover. A survey in the U.S. showed manufacturing orders picked up for the first time in 18 months. Manufacturing surveys in China, India and Europe also showed signs either of slowing declines or actual growth."
Maybe. A few weeks ago another big more up happened on a Monday, but then the market consolidated for awhile. This move broke out of the consolidation range. I'd guess a huge number of beefer hedge funds are underperforming massively and are in panic mode.
Usually they pile into momentum winners and after a few weeks all bail out at once in a correction. So what to do?
I plan to flip some winners and recent adds into future strength to cut back over time to 100% long. I like to be longer on dips, but on breakouts I like to cut back. This way the brutal corrections are not so painful, and I have money to make adds on dips.
Obama Fund is performing marvellously, as is Fido Fund. I will stick to the strategy: this is month 5 out of the envisioned 18 month rebound.
Target: S&P 1200+ by mid 2010.
Word of the Day
"Debouchement" - noun from the intransitive verb, "Debouch" [$10];
"Debouch" this is pronounced di bowch with the stress on the last syllable.
Debouch means 1. (of troops or a stream) issue from a ravine, wood, etc. into open ground; 2. (often followed by 'into'; of a river, road, etc.) merge into a larger body or area.
Sentence: Yesterday's debouchement of stock prices into intermediate term "blue sky" country must be making bearish beefers sweat.
Le Mot Du Jour
"Déboucher" - verb, regular -er conjugation
Déboucher means (transitive) to unblock, to uncork, to open; (intransitive) to emerge, to come out (+ sur ou dans).
La Phrase: Hier cours du marché des actions ont débouché en haut sur les espaces ouverts.
Sentence: Yesterday stock market prices emerged upwards onto open spaces.
Why?
WSJ: "Driving stocks and commodities was news from across the globe that orders for manufactured goods were finally beginning to recover. A survey in the U.S. showed manufacturing orders picked up for the first time in 18 months. Manufacturing surveys in China, India and Europe also showed signs either of slowing declines or actual growth."
Maybe. A few weeks ago another big more up happened on a Monday, but then the market consolidated for awhile. This move broke out of the consolidation range. I'd guess a huge number of beefer hedge funds are underperforming massively and are in panic mode.
Usually they pile into momentum winners and after a few weeks all bail out at once in a correction. So what to do?
I plan to flip some winners and recent adds into future strength to cut back over time to 100% long. I like to be longer on dips, but on breakouts I like to cut back. This way the brutal corrections are not so painful, and I have money to make adds on dips.
Obama Fund is performing marvellously, as is Fido Fund. I will stick to the strategy: this is month 5 out of the envisioned 18 month rebound.
Target: S&P 1200+ by mid 2010.
Word of the Day
"Debouchement" - noun from the intransitive verb, "Debouch" [$10];
"Debouch" this is pronounced di bowch with the stress on the last syllable.
Debouch means 1. (of troops or a stream) issue from a ravine, wood, etc. into open ground; 2. (often followed by 'into'; of a river, road, etc.) merge into a larger body or area.
Sentence: Yesterday's debouchement of stock prices into intermediate term "blue sky" country must be making bearish beefers sweat.
Le Mot Du Jour
"Déboucher" - verb, regular -er conjugation
Déboucher means (transitive) to unblock, to uncork, to open; (intransitive) to emerge, to come out (+ sur ou dans).
La Phrase: Hier cours du marché des actions ont débouché en haut sur les espaces ouverts.
Sentence: Yesterday stock market prices emerged upwards onto open spaces.
Friday, May 29, 2009
TGIF and Hmmmm ....
Strange news coming out ...
FT: "Japan’s industrial output bounced back 5.2 per cent in April compared with the previous month, a stronger rise than analysts expected "
And "India’s economy grew a better-than-expected 5.8 per cent in the first three months of 2009 "
Copper prices are rising decisively over $2.00/lb.
I suppose the doomsters can find something bad in that data. But in my humble opinion, up is up. Why overthink this ? Last fall was a panic caused by beefer Viking raiders, everyone got scared and stopped buying or ordering everything, so the economy fell off the cliff. But that can only last so long. Eventually people start living again.
It's like 1974 when the Arab oil embargo hit. Panic ... gas lines ... stocks fall 50% ... economy nosedives and bounces along the bottom for six months ... then life continues ... stocks rise 100% over the next year. Very long term, some troubling things exist that might hurt GROWTH later, but until the economy gets back to where it was, that resistance won't be felt.
Obama Fund is well positioned IF this scenario plays out. I chose many stocks in sectors that performed excellently after the 1974 air-pocket. Time will tell.
Scotch Whisky
Scotch drinkers: check out this site - http://www.royalmilewhiskies.com/default.asp
And here's a fine glass to best enjoy your fine Scotch whisky: http://www.royalmilewhiskies.com/product.asp?pf_id=0100000001790
I drink my finest Scotch whiskies in a glass like this. I prefer the finest Scotches with just a small ice cube, which I let partly melt as I smell the aromas and enjoy the visual pleasures of the fine Scotch adhering to the glass as I tip and lightly swirl and sniff it. Then I sip it ... the partly melted ice puts it at the perfect temperature, about 50F and the bit of water releases the flavor and gives the Scotch better mouth-feel as the alcohol burn is reduced just enough.
I've visited the Royal Mile Whiskies store in Edinburgh. It's just a little shop, but has super selections and the staff was really helpful. I bought six bottles [each costing over $400]and had them shipped directly to home. This works OK if you limit it to four or six bottles, as they said they've never had a problem with customs.
[By the way, there is a store in London, too. I walked past it on my visit there on the way to the British Museum.]
So what if you want a good Scotch here in the US, without buying it from Scotland? Here are my tested recommendations.
Finest: Johnny Walker Blue Label. About $200 per bottle or so, depending where you buy it. This is a blend of superb single malts and has the mouth-feel and richness of a fine cognac.
Medium: Glenlivet French Oak Finish. About $40 per bottle, depending on the store and exchange rate. It's a single malt with a better, richer taste that the usual Glenlivit which is quite good.
Modest: Teacher's Highland Cream. I think one can get a 1.5 liter bottler for about $25 or so from memory. This Scotch whisky has the flavors of the fine Cardhu malts used in Johnny Walker whiskies, but is much cheaper. Best value.
By the way, just so you don't appear as a heathen or Philistine, it's spelled Scotch whisky, but conversely it's Irish whiskey. Only scotch is properly deemed a "whisky" - all the rest are "whiskey". We do have to let the Scottish people and their spirits have that respect- they invented it and we are grateful to them for that. Bourbon is an American originated whiskey made with over 50% corn. And Rye is originally a term used for whiskey made with over 50% rye grain, but is also slang for the many "American" blended whiskies like Seagram's, etc.
Word of the Day
"Liminal" - adjective [$10]
Liminal means 1.a. of or relating to a transitional or initial stage; 1.b. marginal, insignificant; 2. occupying a position on or on both sides of, a boundary or threshold.
Sentence: Quite a lot of recent economic data has liminal qualities portending new cycle of economic growth is commencing. It's not certain, but when is anything certain about economies or stocks ?
Le Mot du Jour
"Canard" - noun, masculine
Canard means 1. (Culinary) duck, (oiseau, male) drake; 2. (journal) paper, *rag; 3. (= fausse note) faire un ~ to hit a false note; 4. (terme d'affection) mon (petit) ~ my pet. Several idioms such as "Il fait un froid du canard" meaning "It's freezing cold.", but more literally, "It's cold as a duck":
La Phrase: Il fait un froid du canard aujourd'hui- 50F. Qu'est-ce qui s'est passé à réchauffement de la planète ?
Sentence: It's freezing cold today - 50F. What happened to global warming?
FT: "Japan’s industrial output bounced back 5.2 per cent in April compared with the previous month, a stronger rise than analysts expected "
And "India’s economy grew a better-than-expected 5.8 per cent in the first three months of 2009 "
Copper prices are rising decisively over $2.00/lb.
I suppose the doomsters can find something bad in that data. But in my humble opinion, up is up. Why overthink this ? Last fall was a panic caused by beefer Viking raiders, everyone got scared and stopped buying or ordering everything, so the economy fell off the cliff. But that can only last so long. Eventually people start living again.
It's like 1974 when the Arab oil embargo hit. Panic ... gas lines ... stocks fall 50% ... economy nosedives and bounces along the bottom for six months ... then life continues ... stocks rise 100% over the next year. Very long term, some troubling things exist that might hurt GROWTH later, but until the economy gets back to where it was, that resistance won't be felt.
Obama Fund is well positioned IF this scenario plays out. I chose many stocks in sectors that performed excellently after the 1974 air-pocket. Time will tell.
Scotch Whisky
Scotch drinkers: check out this site - http://www.royalmilewhiskies.com/default.asp
And here's a fine glass to best enjoy your fine Scotch whisky: http://www.royalmilewhiskies.com/product.asp?pf_id=0100000001790
I drink my finest Scotch whiskies in a glass like this. I prefer the finest Scotches with just a small ice cube, which I let partly melt as I smell the aromas and enjoy the visual pleasures of the fine Scotch adhering to the glass as I tip and lightly swirl and sniff it. Then I sip it ... the partly melted ice puts it at the perfect temperature, about 50F and the bit of water releases the flavor and gives the Scotch better mouth-feel as the alcohol burn is reduced just enough.
I've visited the Royal Mile Whiskies store in Edinburgh. It's just a little shop, but has super selections and the staff was really helpful. I bought six bottles [each costing over $400]and had them shipped directly to home. This works OK if you limit it to four or six bottles, as they said they've never had a problem with customs.
[By the way, there is a store in London, too. I walked past it on my visit there on the way to the British Museum.]
So what if you want a good Scotch here in the US, without buying it from Scotland? Here are my tested recommendations.
Finest: Johnny Walker Blue Label. About $200 per bottle or so, depending where you buy it. This is a blend of superb single malts and has the mouth-feel and richness of a fine cognac.
Medium: Glenlivet French Oak Finish. About $40 per bottle, depending on the store and exchange rate. It's a single malt with a better, richer taste that the usual Glenlivit which is quite good.
Modest: Teacher's Highland Cream. I think one can get a 1.5 liter bottler for about $25 or so from memory. This Scotch whisky has the flavors of the fine Cardhu malts used in Johnny Walker whiskies, but is much cheaper. Best value.
By the way, just so you don't appear as a heathen or Philistine, it's spelled Scotch whisky, but conversely it's Irish whiskey. Only scotch is properly deemed a "whisky" - all the rest are "whiskey". We do have to let the Scottish people and their spirits have that respect- they invented it and we are grateful to them for that. Bourbon is an American originated whiskey made with over 50% corn. And Rye is originally a term used for whiskey made with over 50% rye grain, but is also slang for the many "American" blended whiskies like Seagram's, etc.
Word of the Day
"Liminal" - adjective [$10]
Liminal means 1.a. of or relating to a transitional or initial stage; 1.b. marginal, insignificant; 2. occupying a position on or on both sides of, a boundary or threshold.
Sentence: Quite a lot of recent economic data has liminal qualities portending new cycle of economic growth is commencing. It's not certain, but when is anything certain about economies or stocks ?
Le Mot du Jour
"Canard" - noun, masculine
Canard means 1. (Culinary) duck, (oiseau, male) drake; 2. (journal) paper, *rag; 3. (= fausse note) faire un ~ to hit a false note; 4. (terme d'affection) mon (petit) ~ my pet. Several idioms such as "Il fait un froid du canard" meaning "It's freezing cold.", but more literally, "It's cold as a duck":
La Phrase: Il fait un froid du canard aujourd'hui- 50F. Qu'est-ce qui s'est passé à réchauffement de la planète ?
Sentence: It's freezing cold today - 50F. What happened to global warming?
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Rally & Consolidate
The S&P 500 chart shows a consolidation pattern in the range of last fall's long, ragged trading range. Its 200 day moving average (DMA) is falling slowly to the level of the rising 50 DMA. The consolidation pattern is centered between the two moving average curves. So it's a battle of time and price.
Yesterday shorts seems willing to press futures lower before the opening, but buyers stepped in early and then when the big uptick in consumer confidence hit the newswires, the market popped up strongly and continued strongly all day long, closing near the highs. Most of that was probably shorts covering, but some must have been buyers.
Obama Fund is long enough, but would go longer at a good time or price, viz a bear raid knocking the prices to the 50 DMA.
Word of the Day
"Tosh" - noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Tosh means 1. rubbish, nonsense; 2. (slang) a casual form of address, especially to unknown persons. Mencken usage: " ... who writes such thumping tosh ..."
Sentence: Perhaps I should start calling CNBC the Tosh Network, of Toshvision. I watched a segment last Friday on short selling, which was such butt-kissing, one sided pro-short selling tosh.
Le Mot du Jour
"Pleuvoir" - verb
Pleuvoir means to rain.
La Phrase: Il pleut ici maintenant.
Sentence: It's raining here now.
Yesterday shorts seems willing to press futures lower before the opening, but buyers stepped in early and then when the big uptick in consumer confidence hit the newswires, the market popped up strongly and continued strongly all day long, closing near the highs. Most of that was probably shorts covering, but some must have been buyers.
Obama Fund is long enough, but would go longer at a good time or price, viz a bear raid knocking the prices to the 50 DMA.
Word of the Day
"Tosh" - noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Tosh means 1. rubbish, nonsense; 2. (slang) a casual form of address, especially to unknown persons. Mencken usage: " ... who writes such thumping tosh ..."
Sentence: Perhaps I should start calling CNBC the Tosh Network, of Toshvision. I watched a segment last Friday on short selling, which was such butt-kissing, one sided pro-short selling tosh.
Le Mot du Jour
"Pleuvoir" - verb
Pleuvoir means to rain.
La Phrase: Il pleut ici maintenant.
Sentence: It's raining here now.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Back in the Saddle
I see the pop up in stocks last Monday got hammered down. The S&P 500 chart now look like it wants to make an intermediate term A-B-C correction pattern bottoming around the 50 DMA at 850, maybe in a week ot two. Fine. I'll wait until that point or time to add to the longs in Obama Fund to get it to 150% long from the current level of about 125% long.
Fido Fund is still at 100% long. I'm noodling over adding there.
Music
From comments here and conversations with some readers, I think that the "Good Music Theorem" needs some examples. I'm preparing a top 20 list of my favorite songs, and am even making them into a playlist on my Mac. For today, I'll provide two.
First is "Will You Still Be Mine?", a super song performed in 1941 by Connie Haines singing with the Tommy Dorsey band. The writers were professional songwriters Matt Dennis and Tom Adair. I think the lyrics are some of the best ever done. Here is a link on YouTube -> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1mBU-GpFGE
Second is a favorite from the Depression years. "Happy Days Are Here Again" was a huge hit and become the campaign song of FDR's 1932 campaign for President. The song is the unofficial theme song for the Democratic party now. The lyrics are fun and the music is bouncy. Here is a YouTube production using a recording of Ben Levin and his orchestra -> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg This song and video are awarded the honor of being the official song and music video of the Obama Fund. If you watch to the end, you'll see Barry with a fine s***-eating grin. Such a fine vulgar Americanism, that word, s***-eating. I'm sure it makes pompous grammarians and anglomaniacs cringe.
Words
I'm now reading "The American Language" by H. L. Mencken, in which he lays out the development and opposition to the creation of a true American language, as distinguished from English. For now, American creation of compound words and expressions is one element of its divergence from standard English. I completed a pushy survey over the weekend for the Commerce department for my businesses. It asked the language in which I did business. "American" was not one of the choices, so I checked "Other". Yes, I am contumacious.
Word of the Day
"Carboy" - noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Carboy means a large globular bottle usually protected by a frame, for containing especially liquids.
Sentence: Perhaps GM bondholders should order a carboy of vodka to drown their sorrows as Comrade Obama guts their rights and steals their value in his piratical "reorganization" of that firm with his union gang buddies.
Le Mot du Jour
"Étonnant, e" - adjective
Étonnant means surprisingly, amazing, astonishing.
La Phrase: Il sera étonnant si quelqu'un prêterait au GM à l'avenir.
Sentence: It will be astonishing if anyone lends to GM in the future.
Fido Fund is still at 100% long. I'm noodling over adding there.
Music
From comments here and conversations with some readers, I think that the "Good Music Theorem" needs some examples. I'm preparing a top 20 list of my favorite songs, and am even making them into a playlist on my Mac. For today, I'll provide two.
First is "Will You Still Be Mine?", a super song performed in 1941 by Connie Haines singing with the Tommy Dorsey band. The writers were professional songwriters Matt Dennis and Tom Adair. I think the lyrics are some of the best ever done. Here is a link on YouTube -> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1mBU-GpFGE
Second is a favorite from the Depression years. "Happy Days Are Here Again" was a huge hit and become the campaign song of FDR's 1932 campaign for President. The song is the unofficial theme song for the Democratic party now. The lyrics are fun and the music is bouncy. Here is a YouTube production using a recording of Ben Levin and his orchestra -> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqsT4xnKZPg This song and video are awarded the honor of being the official song and music video of the Obama Fund. If you watch to the end, you'll see Barry with a fine s***-eating grin. Such a fine vulgar Americanism, that word, s***-eating. I'm sure it makes pompous grammarians and anglomaniacs cringe.
Words
I'm now reading "The American Language" by H. L. Mencken, in which he lays out the development and opposition to the creation of a true American language, as distinguished from English. For now, American creation of compound words and expressions is one element of its divergence from standard English. I completed a pushy survey over the weekend for the Commerce department for my businesses. It asked the language in which I did business. "American" was not one of the choices, so I checked "Other". Yes, I am contumacious.
Word of the Day
"Carboy" - noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Carboy means a large globular bottle usually protected by a frame, for containing especially liquids.
Sentence: Perhaps GM bondholders should order a carboy of vodka to drown their sorrows as Comrade Obama guts their rights and steals their value in his piratical "reorganization" of that firm with his union gang buddies.
Le Mot du Jour
"Étonnant, e" - adjective
Étonnant means surprisingly, amazing, astonishing.
La Phrase: Il sera étonnant si quelqu'un prêterait au GM à l'avenir.
Sentence: It will be astonishing if anyone lends to GM in the future.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Stock by Stock
After pondering how to start trading Obama Fund positions a bit more actively, I've decided to now shift to stock by stock tactics. The Fund has about 50 stocks in small positions with different sizes ranging from about 5% to 1%. I made the first few moves on macro reasoning, buying or adding to 10 and 20 at a time. Now I think I need to shift tactics.
I looked over all 50 charts yesterday and really liked what I saw: good patterns and many reasonable pullbacks to support. One needs to add at support, not extension, since when the beefers and traders bail out - usually all at once - the pain can be intense. Why have a large position on such risky, exposed ground ?
The review also showed that I missed some good buys in March, particularly in some restaurant stocks. Darn ...
An erudite commentor suggested a tech stock for Fido Fund: RIMM. That is intriguing as that firm "owns" the corporate portable communication market. I don't have one, being a convinced Luddite except for my youth movement to carry an iPhone. But lots of people love their Blackberry. Thinking ...
This means I have to work harder ... ugh.
Also, I am still contemplating buying some natural gas in my newly re-charged commodities account. I'm looking over contract specifications and thinking. The forward curve is quite steep in the fall. Huge amounts - near record - are in storage. Industrial demand is needed, but when will it pick up ? And I mean pick up, not just stop going down. Still thinking ...
I will be traveling to my hometown in Ohio all next week. That means no new posts unless I can convince Mrs. B to make an appearance as a guest blogger. She might want to write about the dogs, or ...
Word of the Day
"Invidious" - adjective [$10]; this is a word one hears often but might not know the precise meaning.
Invidious means (of an action, conduct, attitude) likely to excite resentment or indignation against a person responsible, especially by real or seeming injustice.
Sentence: Slashing the dealer networks might be a good, but invidious business move for Chrysler and GM as thousands of significant local businesses will be hurt across the country.
Le Mot du Jour
"Tabler" - verb, transitive indirect; regular -er conjugation; takes preposition "sur"
Tabler sur means to count on, to bank on.
La Phrase: (copied from Le Figaro) Le gouvernement table désormais sur un repli de 3% pour l'année 2009.
Sentence: The government [France] from now on counts on a pullback of 3% for the year 2009 [in the economy].
I looked over all 50 charts yesterday and really liked what I saw: good patterns and many reasonable pullbacks to support. One needs to add at support, not extension, since when the beefers and traders bail out - usually all at once - the pain can be intense. Why have a large position on such risky, exposed ground ?
The review also showed that I missed some good buys in March, particularly in some restaurant stocks. Darn ...
An erudite commentor suggested a tech stock for Fido Fund: RIMM. That is intriguing as that firm "owns" the corporate portable communication market. I don't have one, being a convinced Luddite except for my youth movement to carry an iPhone. But lots of people love their Blackberry. Thinking ...
This means I have to work harder ... ugh.
Also, I am still contemplating buying some natural gas in my newly re-charged commodities account. I'm looking over contract specifications and thinking. The forward curve is quite steep in the fall. Huge amounts - near record - are in storage. Industrial demand is needed, but when will it pick up ? And I mean pick up, not just stop going down. Still thinking ...
I will be traveling to my hometown in Ohio all next week. That means no new posts unless I can convince Mrs. B to make an appearance as a guest blogger. She might want to write about the dogs, or ...
Word of the Day
"Invidious" - adjective [$10]; this is a word one hears often but might not know the precise meaning.
Invidious means (of an action, conduct, attitude) likely to excite resentment or indignation against a person responsible, especially by real or seeming injustice.
Sentence: Slashing the dealer networks might be a good, but invidious business move for Chrysler and GM as thousands of significant local businesses will be hurt across the country.
Le Mot du Jour
"Tabler" - verb, transitive indirect; regular -er conjugation; takes preposition "sur"
Tabler sur means to count on, to bank on.
La Phrase: (copied from Le Figaro) Le gouvernement table désormais sur un repli de 3% pour l'année 2009.
Sentence: The government [France] from now on counts on a pullback of 3% for the year 2009 [in the economy].
Friday, January 2, 2009
The Obama Fund
I have restructured and re-christened my old "Alpha Fund" as the new Obama Fund, looking for "change" in the markets' character. Its strategy will be to buy beaten down stocks that could rise by 3x or 4x over two years if and only if Obama succeeds as President in returning the economy to normalcy. The total objective is a 10x on capital in the fund. The second leg of multiple returns will be gotten from intermediate term trading and stock rotation.
I have a list of 60 stocks in 25 sectors. The sectors include those that rebounded very strongly in the 1974 bear market and recession into 1976, plus a number of other sectors appropriate to the current world economy and situation. I rejected stocks with excessive debt and bankruptcy risks, as well as stocks showing terminal CFO stupidity in having excessive stock buybacks at high prices. My research on individual stocks was neither sweeping nor intensive. I relied on general measures provided by Daily Graphs, balance sheets and income statements mostly from Yahoo Finance supplemented by SEC filings as needed. My general knowledge of stocks and sectors was used quite often, too.
Do your own work. I will not buy every stock. I plan to buy stocks on good entries and rotate within the list as opportunities arise. I won't use margin until a good bull market trend develops. Diversify over sectors and time.
OBAMA FUND MASTER LIST as of January 1, 2009
Advertising: AMCN
Agriculture: MOS
Apparel – clothing mfg: TLF
Basic Materials: SSCC, FCX, HUN
Batteries: XIDE
Cement: CX (pullback)
Engineering: KBR, JEC (pullback), SGR
Financial: CIT, MS (pullback), EEFT, NBG, FCT
Gems: HWD
Hotels: IHG, HMIN (Chinese), MAR (on pullback)
Industrial: IR
Leisure: ACAT, MTN (pullback), DKS, CAB
Media: CETV
Mining, Constr. Eq.: MTW, TEX
Pollution Services: IDSA
Resources: AREX, ME, GPOR, GMET, ROSE, CRZO,
Oil Services & products: RIG (under 50), WFT, FTK
Restaurants: MRT; On modest pullback: CPKI, DRI, CAKE
Retail – Clothing: ANF, FL, URBN (modest pullback)
Shipping: DRYS, EXM, GNK
Shoes, Footwear Mfg.: RCKY, ICON
Steel: X, MT, GSI, SUTR, SID, AKS
Tires: GT
Truck Eq – mfg.: CMI, SPAR
Trucking: CLDN
Many of these stocks have been perky lately, so I am not alone in doing this. Try to get a good entry and not get washed out when the short term traders sell "en mass".
Obama Fund already owns GNK, EXM, FCX, FCT, HUN and a small bit of ultra risky SSCC.
Krypto Fund
For 2008, Krypto Fund was down 27.17% compared to the S&P 500 being down 37% and the Wilshire 5000 being down 37.23% in total return. So for dog biscuits as a management fee, I got 10% outperformance. Quite good on a relative basis. By the way, Krypto Fund outperformed in the years the S&P 500 was up, too.
Word of the Day
"Litotes" - noun [$10]; a term of rhetoric
Litotes means an ironical understatement, especially the expressing of an affirmative by the negative of its contrary. Example: using "I shan't be sorry" for "I shall be glad".
Sentence: Bunkerman's frequent expressions of not being sorry as large numbers of hedge funds are liquidated are merely polite litotes, as he truly is gleefully dancing on their graves blowing a trumpet in joy.
I have a list of 60 stocks in 25 sectors. The sectors include those that rebounded very strongly in the 1974 bear market and recession into 1976, plus a number of other sectors appropriate to the current world economy and situation. I rejected stocks with excessive debt and bankruptcy risks, as well as stocks showing terminal CFO stupidity in having excessive stock buybacks at high prices. My research on individual stocks was neither sweeping nor intensive. I relied on general measures provided by Daily Graphs, balance sheets and income statements mostly from Yahoo Finance supplemented by SEC filings as needed. My general knowledge of stocks and sectors was used quite often, too.
Do your own work. I will not buy every stock. I plan to buy stocks on good entries and rotate within the list as opportunities arise. I won't use margin until a good bull market trend develops. Diversify over sectors and time.
OBAMA FUND MASTER LIST as of January 1, 2009
Advertising: AMCN
Agriculture: MOS
Apparel – clothing mfg: TLF
Basic Materials: SSCC, FCX, HUN
Batteries: XIDE
Cement: CX (pullback)
Engineering: KBR, JEC (pullback), SGR
Financial: CIT, MS (pullback), EEFT, NBG, FCT
Gems: HWD
Hotels: IHG, HMIN (Chinese), MAR (on pullback)
Industrial: IR
Leisure: ACAT, MTN (pullback), DKS, CAB
Media: CETV
Mining, Constr. Eq.: MTW, TEX
Pollution Services: IDSA
Resources: AREX, ME, GPOR, GMET, ROSE, CRZO,
Oil Services & products: RIG (under 50), WFT, FTK
Restaurants: MRT; On modest pullback: CPKI, DRI, CAKE
Retail – Clothing: ANF, FL, URBN (modest pullback)
Shipping: DRYS, EXM, GNK
Shoes, Footwear Mfg.: RCKY, ICON
Steel: X, MT, GSI, SUTR, SID, AKS
Tires: GT
Truck Eq – mfg.: CMI, SPAR
Trucking: CLDN
Many of these stocks have been perky lately, so I am not alone in doing this. Try to get a good entry and not get washed out when the short term traders sell "en mass".
Obama Fund already owns GNK, EXM, FCX, FCT, HUN and a small bit of ultra risky SSCC.
Krypto Fund
For 2008, Krypto Fund was down 27.17% compared to the S&P 500 being down 37% and the Wilshire 5000 being down 37.23% in total return. So for dog biscuits as a management fee, I got 10% outperformance. Quite good on a relative basis. By the way, Krypto Fund outperformed in the years the S&P 500 was up, too.
Word of the Day
"Litotes" - noun [$10]; a term of rhetoric
Litotes means an ironical understatement, especially the expressing of an affirmative by the negative of its contrary. Example: using "I shan't be sorry" for "I shall be glad".
Sentence: Bunkerman's frequent expressions of not being sorry as large numbers of hedge funds are liquidated are merely polite litotes, as he truly is gleefully dancing on their graves blowing a trumpet in joy.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Bits and Trends
Retail sales in China are up 22% in October - I guess that's year over year. Hmmm ... quite interesting. Perhaps China have developed considerable internal domestic demand and doesn't rely as much as one might have thought on exports.
A problem Japan has had for many years is that its economy excessively relies on exports and domestic demand is too low. Demographics partly forces that, but government policies there exacerbate it.
American Express to ask for TARP aid. Huh ? What the heck has that management been doing ? I've never liked the management of American Express. I fear there is a bug under that rock.
I think the Mexico story from yesterday about how they have hedged a very large amount of oil tells us why oil is still weak. Hedging by producer nations that need the money. Hmmm ...
Actions
Yesterday I re-bought some CCJ as the wash sale tax window is long gone. Their earnings were OK and uranium really is the only effective power source that does not produce carbon dioxide. I don't believe that global warming is caused by humans, but enough people do and I'd like to profit from their stupidity. 1/2 position for now.
I also added a bit to DRYS, EXM and GNK. These stocks are ultra risky as the chance does exist the banks won't show some flexibility in loan to value covenants. But in my experience, as long as the companies produce cash flow on the loans, the banks will, and should, forebear. These companies do not have excessive debt and did a good job locking in long term charters with good credits for enough of the fleet to cover the bank debt. Dilution is a risk, as is whether large shareholders are margined on their stock. I do not have positions that are too large in those, and will add a bit me at good prices.
Late yesterday an astute commentor skeptically asked for my 'plan". Overall my plan is to continue to buy some stocks I like at good prices. I like GOOG but cannot buy it until late in the month due to the 30 day wash sale window. I will maintain a reserve, either in the Alpha Fund itself or in the bank account from which I can easily shift $ to it. "Protect yourself at all times."
Why do I care about tax losses ? Since I plan to hold these stocks a long time in the future to get large, long term gains. I don't want to lock up valuable tax losses for years. And I can use those losses this year as I still have very large capital gains to offset - both short term and long term. This save me real money every quarterly estimated tax payment day.
Word of the Day
"Assay" - noun and verb [many usages, this usage is a $100 one from an H. L. Mencken quote]
Assay means (after meanings 1-7) 8. (metallurgy) determination of the amount of metal, especially gold or silver, in an ore, alloy, etc.; 9. a substance undergoing analysis or trial; 10. a detailed report of the findings in assaying a substance; 11. (archaic) examination, trial, attempt, essay.
Sentences:
(A) (from "the Impossible H. L. Mencken", page 207) "For seldom have these eyes encountered a document by an American politician which there was a larger assay of common sense."
(B) The assay of common sense provided by Babblevsion, Blabberg and in general the American press compares unfavorably to the assay of true gold in fool's gold.
A problem Japan has had for many years is that its economy excessively relies on exports and domestic demand is too low. Demographics partly forces that, but government policies there exacerbate it.
American Express to ask for TARP aid. Huh ? What the heck has that management been doing ? I've never liked the management of American Express. I fear there is a bug under that rock.
I think the Mexico story from yesterday about how they have hedged a very large amount of oil tells us why oil is still weak. Hedging by producer nations that need the money. Hmmm ...
Actions
Yesterday I re-bought some CCJ as the wash sale tax window is long gone. Their earnings were OK and uranium really is the only effective power source that does not produce carbon dioxide. I don't believe that global warming is caused by humans, but enough people do and I'd like to profit from their stupidity. 1/2 position for now.
I also added a bit to DRYS, EXM and GNK. These stocks are ultra risky as the chance does exist the banks won't show some flexibility in loan to value covenants. But in my experience, as long as the companies produce cash flow on the loans, the banks will, and should, forebear. These companies do not have excessive debt and did a good job locking in long term charters with good credits for enough of the fleet to cover the bank debt. Dilution is a risk, as is whether large shareholders are margined on their stock. I do not have positions that are too large in those, and will add a bit me at good prices.
Late yesterday an astute commentor skeptically asked for my 'plan". Overall my plan is to continue to buy some stocks I like at good prices. I like GOOG but cannot buy it until late in the month due to the 30 day wash sale window. I will maintain a reserve, either in the Alpha Fund itself or in the bank account from which I can easily shift $ to it. "Protect yourself at all times."
Why do I care about tax losses ? Since I plan to hold these stocks a long time in the future to get large, long term gains. I don't want to lock up valuable tax losses for years. And I can use those losses this year as I still have very large capital gains to offset - both short term and long term. This save me real money every quarterly estimated tax payment day.
Word of the Day
"Assay" - noun and verb [many usages, this usage is a $100 one from an H. L. Mencken quote]
Assay means (after meanings 1-7) 8. (metallurgy) determination of the amount of metal, especially gold or silver, in an ore, alloy, etc.; 9. a substance undergoing analysis or trial; 10. a detailed report of the findings in assaying a substance; 11. (archaic) examination, trial, attempt, essay.
Sentences:
(A) (from "the Impossible H. L. Mencken", page 207) "For seldom have these eyes encountered a document by an American politician which there was a larger assay of common sense."
(B) The assay of common sense provided by Babblevsion, Blabberg and in general the American press compares unfavorably to the assay of true gold in fool's gold.
Friday, April 11, 2008
GEe, it's Friday !
I'll update this post after the GE earnings come out at 6:30 AM ET. [ **see update below .. ugh ! **] As a diversified multinational industrial company with large businesses in infrastructure and substantial overseas and export components, I expect a good quarter and outlook. The CEO, Jeff Immelt, seems to be doing a fine job and bought outright about $5 million in stock in March. He was quite bullish at a conference in March, too. GE is a large holding in my Alpha Fund and I have a fine profit already.
Stocks rose on higher volume Thursday ... a good recovery after Wednesday's slide. The endless streams of opinion we hear on Babblevision and Blabberg really should be cut back and substituted with facts. But I did hear early this AM on Blabberg that Bill Gross of PIMCO has shifted his bond asset allocation greatly in favor of mortgage securities and has much less cash and Treasuries.
Spring is finally here. This winter was too long and harsh. Where is global warming ?
The rise in world rice prices is interesting. I never traded rice when I was a commodity speculator so don't know much about the fundamentals. But maybe this ditty applies, "how ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm when they've seen Beijing? " That is adaped from the WW I Irving Berlin song about US farmboys having served in France and seen Paris [sung as "Pa-reee"]. As events proved, they did start to prefer city life and opportunities. I'd guess a farmer spending days in rice paddies might think a job in the city is a better life. And so farm labor and actual farm land in those areas of the world where rice is manually cultivated might be suffering a steady decline. This is just a guess. I'll try to read more about this interesting development and write in the future.
PS: GE missed earnings estimates and lowered guidance, due to the large financial sector exposure. Phooey ! Oh well, I thought they had done a better job controlling that - sounds like they got hit in mid-late March. Not selling. I like it LT. I sold 1/3 over 37 on the recent poparoo. My position now is well-sized, not adding. Bears will certainly press again now. More slogging ahead ... ugh ... this is tiring.
PPS: China takeover rumors for CCJ, a long-term Alpha Fund holding. CCJ is the world's largets uranium mine.
P^3S: Revision - if they knock GE down enough, I will re-buy that 1/3 this morning.
P^4S: Btw, this is why one always waits for good dips to buy. And expects beefers to attack hard again, as I did write recently. There is usually an ebb & flow to news that causes volatilty. However, metaphorically this GE news is a surprise pothole under the car. We must watch the road ahead, not the part under the car or the rear view mirror except as it affects the future.
Word of the Day
"Indulciate" - verb, transitive [$1000] rare. Pronounced with a soft "c" as in "dulcify". A variant spelling/pronouciation is "indulcate" with a hard "c" as in "inculcate". I originally saw this interesting word in a letter from George Washington to a niece quoted in the fine book, "All Cloudless Glory", vol. 2.
Indulciate or indulcate means to sweeten in the sense of make agreeable, less painful. This word has a softer meaning than "inculcate" which means to teach or impress upon by emphasis or frequent repetition, but a stronger meaning than merely "suggest".
Sentence: A. [this is George Washinton's usage to his teenaged niece] "... I nevertheless will endeavor to indulcate upon your mind the delicacy and changes of that period [i. e., young womanhood] to which you have arrived under peculiar circumstances [i. e., no living parents]."
He chose that word to be gentle and fatherly to his niece, yet wanted to elevate his concern beyond making a suggestion or passing thought.
B. [original usage of 1628 from OED] "A friendly warre [war] doth indulciate the insuing cloze [peace]." This should ring true, as harsh and brutal war tactics make friendship after the peace quite rare.
C. [new] I won't try to indulciate for readers the GE earnings report aka "put lipstick on a pig".
Stocks rose on higher volume Thursday ... a good recovery after Wednesday's slide. The endless streams of opinion we hear on Babblevision and Blabberg really should be cut back and substituted with facts. But I did hear early this AM on Blabberg that Bill Gross of PIMCO has shifted his bond asset allocation greatly in favor of mortgage securities and has much less cash and Treasuries.
Spring is finally here. This winter was too long and harsh. Where is global warming ?
The rise in world rice prices is interesting. I never traded rice when I was a commodity speculator so don't know much about the fundamentals. But maybe this ditty applies, "how ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm when they've seen Beijing? " That is adaped from the WW I Irving Berlin song about US farmboys having served in France and seen Paris [sung as "Pa-reee"]. As events proved, they did start to prefer city life and opportunities. I'd guess a farmer spending days in rice paddies might think a job in the city is a better life. And so farm labor and actual farm land in those areas of the world where rice is manually cultivated might be suffering a steady decline. This is just a guess. I'll try to read more about this interesting development and write in the future.
PS: GE missed earnings estimates and lowered guidance, due to the large financial sector exposure. Phooey ! Oh well, I thought they had done a better job controlling that - sounds like they got hit in mid-late March. Not selling. I like it LT. I sold 1/3 over 37 on the recent poparoo. My position now is well-sized, not adding. Bears will certainly press again now. More slogging ahead ... ugh ... this is tiring.
PPS: China takeover rumors for CCJ, a long-term Alpha Fund holding. CCJ is the world's largets uranium mine.
P^3S: Revision - if they knock GE down enough, I will re-buy that 1/3 this morning.
P^4S: Btw, this is why one always waits for good dips to buy. And expects beefers to attack hard again, as I did write recently. There is usually an ebb & flow to news that causes volatilty. However, metaphorically this GE news is a surprise pothole under the car. We must watch the road ahead, not the part under the car or the rear view mirror except as it affects the future.
Word of the Day
"Indulciate" - verb, transitive [$1000] rare. Pronounced with a soft "c" as in "dulcify". A variant spelling/pronouciation is "indulcate" with a hard "c" as in "inculcate". I originally saw this interesting word in a letter from George Washington to a niece quoted in the fine book, "All Cloudless Glory", vol. 2.
Indulciate or indulcate means to sweeten in the sense of make agreeable, less painful. This word has a softer meaning than "inculcate" which means to teach or impress upon by emphasis or frequent repetition, but a stronger meaning than merely "suggest".
Sentence: A. [this is George Washinton's usage to his teenaged niece] "... I nevertheless will endeavor to indulcate upon your mind the delicacy and changes of that period [i. e., young womanhood] to which you have arrived under peculiar circumstances [i. e., no living parents]."
He chose that word to be gentle and fatherly to his niece, yet wanted to elevate his concern beyond making a suggestion or passing thought.
B. [original usage of 1628 from OED] "A friendly warre [war] doth indulciate the insuing cloze [peace]." This should ring true, as harsh and brutal war tactics make friendship after the peace quite rare.
C. [new] I won't try to indulciate for readers the GE earnings report aka "put lipstick on a pig".
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
The Salvo from Battleship Ben
Battleship Ben Bernanke showed quite a bit of flexibility and aggresiveness with the Fed move yesterday to create the Term Securities Lending Facility. The size of the move was quite significant at $200 billion, which is about 25% of the monetary base of the US now usable for funding mortgage securities. That's not a niggardly application of medicine. Also, this might take some pressue off the dollar as extremely low overnight rates may not be necessary now. At this time, less dollar pressure might mean stabilization of oil prices.
My thinking is that 2% to 2.5% is a good place to stop for the overnight rate. That's plenty low enough to give lots of cash flow relief to all with adjustable rate mortgages and home equity loans. Also, I would prefer for the Fed to actually buy mortage securities outright as a permanent policy. That market is really huge, bigger than the Treasury market. Over the long term, I think unduly concentrating the Fed's balance sheet in the Treasury market has caused some distortions. A story in the WSJ says the Fed chose not to buy those outright now, as they feared distortions. And that's true as individual mortgage securities issues are relatively small. Perhaps the Fed can buy pools of mortgage securities by simply taking down some of the mortgage collateral for the TSLF when the loans mature after 28 days. That would not distort the mortgage market for individual issues.
The WSJ had a story about an explosion in FHA lending. That is good. FHA is a fine program that was neglected for years. FHA needs expansion and modernization, but even now it is helping large numbers of the "common man" get a fair mortgage loan. I remember a song from the late 1930s-early 1940s with the theme, "Will You Still be Mine" about love lasting a long time. One of the humorous lines was "When we have finally paid our FHA note". So that program giving fair fixed rate, long term loans to the "common man" has been around a long time.
Also, GOOG received approval from the EU on its Doubleclick acquisition and that closed yesterday. That's good news.
Markets
Yesterday was a huge move up reminiscent of August 13, 1982 when the Fed cut the discount rate triggering a big move up and started that great bull market from 1982 to 2000. NYSE up to down volume ratio was 9:1, which was an old Marty Zweig bullish signal. It's been distorted some due to program trading, but in my mind the coincidence with a major policy move adds to its significance. And I hear lots of skepticism. Good.
The S&P shows a double bottom formation now and is setting up a "W" bottom pattern. A grinding climb to the 1390-1400 area and two closes over that level would created a bullish bottom pattern.
I am still selling gold & silver and buying stocks. I'd like to add to GOOG now on a dip, but have a lot already. I have a lot of the banks now but would add some BAC and JPM at a good price. Also, I'd like to add to AAPL. But I'll be patient and let the beefer bears give me a good price. They are out there. A wounded bear is quite dangerous. Be patient and careful. But the news is good and can get a lot better into spring.
Words of the Day - reprise of some 'duces and one more.
[You can guess I have trouble remembering these $10 words ending in "duce"]
"Adduce" - verb, transitive [$10]
Adduce means to offer as an example, reason, or proof in discussion or analysis; alternatively, it means to cite as an instance or as proof or evidence.
Sentence: Bunkerman adduces the 9:1 up to down volume ratio that a bottom might have been set for the stock market.
"Conduce" - verb, intransitive [$10] (followed by "to")
Conduce means to lead or tend to a particular end usually desireable result: contribute.
Sentence: The Fed's TSLF conduces to more liquidity in the mortgage markets.
[This verb provides an active voice alternative to the common passive voice usage, "is conducive to"
"Congeries" - noun, plural [$10] (the "g" is soft, as in "jury")
Congeries means aggregation, collection
Sentence: Yesterday's congeries of the Fed policy move, double bottom and 9:1 up-to-down NYSE volume ratio provided strong indication that March 10 was indeed the "Spitzer Bottom".
My thinking is that 2% to 2.5% is a good place to stop for the overnight rate. That's plenty low enough to give lots of cash flow relief to all with adjustable rate mortgages and home equity loans. Also, I would prefer for the Fed to actually buy mortage securities outright as a permanent policy. That market is really huge, bigger than the Treasury market. Over the long term, I think unduly concentrating the Fed's balance sheet in the Treasury market has caused some distortions. A story in the WSJ says the Fed chose not to buy those outright now, as they feared distortions. And that's true as individual mortgage securities issues are relatively small. Perhaps the Fed can buy pools of mortgage securities by simply taking down some of the mortgage collateral for the TSLF when the loans mature after 28 days. That would not distort the mortgage market for individual issues.
The WSJ had a story about an explosion in FHA lending. That is good. FHA is a fine program that was neglected for years. FHA needs expansion and modernization, but even now it is helping large numbers of the "common man" get a fair mortgage loan. I remember a song from the late 1930s-early 1940s with the theme, "Will You Still be Mine" about love lasting a long time. One of the humorous lines was "When we have finally paid our FHA note". So that program giving fair fixed rate, long term loans to the "common man" has been around a long time.
Also, GOOG received approval from the EU on its Doubleclick acquisition and that closed yesterday. That's good news.
Markets
Yesterday was a huge move up reminiscent of August 13, 1982 when the Fed cut the discount rate triggering a big move up and started that great bull market from 1982 to 2000. NYSE up to down volume ratio was 9:1, which was an old Marty Zweig bullish signal. It's been distorted some due to program trading, but in my mind the coincidence with a major policy move adds to its significance. And I hear lots of skepticism. Good.
The S&P shows a double bottom formation now and is setting up a "W" bottom pattern. A grinding climb to the 1390-1400 area and two closes over that level would created a bullish bottom pattern.
I am still selling gold & silver and buying stocks. I'd like to add to GOOG now on a dip, but have a lot already. I have a lot of the banks now but would add some BAC and JPM at a good price. Also, I'd like to add to AAPL. But I'll be patient and let the beefer bears give me a good price. They are out there. A wounded bear is quite dangerous. Be patient and careful. But the news is good and can get a lot better into spring.
Words of the Day - reprise of some 'duces and one more.
[You can guess I have trouble remembering these $10 words ending in "duce"]
"Adduce" - verb, transitive [$10]
Adduce means to offer as an example, reason, or proof in discussion or analysis; alternatively, it means to cite as an instance or as proof or evidence.
Sentence: Bunkerman adduces the 9:1 up to down volume ratio that a bottom might have been set for the stock market.
"Conduce" - verb, intransitive [$10] (followed by "to")
Conduce means to lead or tend to a particular end usually desireable result: contribute.
Sentence: The Fed's TSLF conduces to more liquidity in the mortgage markets.
[This verb provides an active voice alternative to the common passive voice usage, "is conducive to"
"Congeries" - noun, plural [$10] (the "g" is soft, as in "jury")
Congeries means aggregation, collection
Sentence: Yesterday's congeries of the Fed policy move, double bottom and 9:1 up-to-down NYSE volume ratio provided strong indication that March 10 was indeed the "Spitzer Bottom".
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Gold and Silver II
To expand on my recent post about Gold & Silver investments [see February 27, 2008 post], I keep the asset class percentage between 5% and 10% of my Krypto Fund. During the recent run up in gold and silver prices and concommitant decline in stock prices, that percentage went to 14% - maybe more as I don't check allocations daily. So as posted, I am selling as fast as possible to get that asset class size down. Physical gold and silver must be sold slowly or the weights and $ amounts can overwhelm me for former and the coin dealer for the latter. So I've been selling for weeks while the price continues to rise. That is good !
Thinking about this situation, the fact that gold and silver are now (1) at my long term price objectives, (2) generational highs, (3) and have parabolic charts, I now intend to cut my gold & silver allocation to 7.5% and may cut it to 5%. That means a lot more selling - weeks even at triple loads per week. But at these levels and the news and public interest, my instincts tell me to sell a lot more.
I'll be buying stocks with the money, more banks plus high quality industrials with large export businesses and perhaps some transports. And some municipal bonds if prices are right. But Mrs. B's broker said that the public is waking up to these municipal bond prices. We were going to buy some more, but they were sold before she could give the OK.
Words of the Day - "A" Words
"Ascribe" - verb [$10]; and "Ascription" - noun [$10]
(I read the term "ascription" in my book about Byzantium yesterday and thought I knew the meaning, but did check and neither this word nor "ascribe" was in my card file. I probably knew "ascribe" as a young man, but thought I should add it to the file now as the root of "ascription").
Ascribe means to attribute to a given cause, source, or origin; 2. to assign as an attribute.
Ascription means the act of ascribing; 2. a statement that ascribes.
Sentence: Political advertisements must by law contain an ascription regarding the payor.
"Asperity" - noun [$10]
Asperity means 1a. roughness or harshness, as of a surface, sound, or climate: the asperity of northern winters; 1b. severity, rigor; 2. harshness of manner; ill-temper or irritability.
Sentence: As the race between Obama and Hillary approaches the convention still practically tied, Bunkerman wonders if they will show increasing asperity in their comments on each other.
"Assiduous" - adjective [$10]
Assiduous means 1. perservering, hard working; 2. attending closely.
Sentence: "Marx was quite assiduous in that he was not a philosopher." from "Great Ideas of Philosophy", part 4, notes pg. 33 under Marx.
Thinking about this situation, the fact that gold and silver are now (1) at my long term price objectives, (2) generational highs, (3) and have parabolic charts, I now intend to cut my gold & silver allocation to 7.5% and may cut it to 5%. That means a lot more selling - weeks even at triple loads per week. But at these levels and the news and public interest, my instincts tell me to sell a lot more.
I'll be buying stocks with the money, more banks plus high quality industrials with large export businesses and perhaps some transports. And some municipal bonds if prices are right. But Mrs. B's broker said that the public is waking up to these municipal bond prices. We were going to buy some more, but they were sold before she could give the OK.
Words of the Day - "A" Words
"Ascribe" - verb [$10]; and "Ascription" - noun [$10]
(I read the term "ascription" in my book about Byzantium yesterday and thought I knew the meaning, but did check and neither this word nor "ascribe" was in my card file. I probably knew "ascribe" as a young man, but thought I should add it to the file now as the root of "ascription").
Ascribe means to attribute to a given cause, source, or origin; 2. to assign as an attribute.
Ascription means the act of ascribing; 2. a statement that ascribes.
Sentence: Political advertisements must by law contain an ascription regarding the payor.
"Asperity" - noun [$10]
Asperity means 1a. roughness or harshness, as of a surface, sound, or climate: the asperity of northern winters; 1b. severity, rigor; 2. harshness of manner; ill-temper or irritability.
Sentence: As the race between Obama and Hillary approaches the convention still practically tied, Bunkerman wonders if they will show increasing asperity in their comments on each other.
"Assiduous" - adjective [$10]
Assiduous means 1. perservering, hard working; 2. attending closely.
Sentence: "Marx was quite assiduous in that he was not a philosopher." from "Great Ideas of Philosophy", part 4, notes pg. 33 under Marx.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
I've Heard That Song Before
That was the title of a fine big band era song that fits so much of what we hear ... if we have a memory. Bunkerman has a memory.
In the department of "Be careful what you wish for, you might get it", I see some hedge funds were liquidated Friday in the municipal bond and mortgage-backed sectors, helping create more "credit" panic and pushing stocks down. Hence my pain Friday was a bit "self-wished-upon" [a coined word]. I'll bear that kind of pain so this cesspool of hedge funds can be drained.
In the department of "Don't open your mouth and show people you're stupid", Obama's wife said that there was nothing she could be proud of in America until her hubby ran for President. D'uh ? Then she has bashed excessive executive pay, but I see she makes $300K for being VP of "Community Affairs" for Chicago Medical Center. D'uh ? I wonder what a nurse makes ... someone who actually helps and cares for people ? Or a high school teacher ?
And in the fearmonger department now blathering about "stagflation", I read that the year-over-year core PCE deflator was ... 2.2%. Zounds !
In the "buy low, sell high ... or sell high, buy low department", the obvious trade is sell gold and silver and TIPs and Treasuries and buy stocks, municipal bonds, and corporate bonds. I see the pumpsters are saying the opposite: sell loans, buy crops from this week's Barron's.
Gotta give Mrs. B more money ... see, a good husband gives his wife money to invest ;-) .... to buy big companies like KO and BA that have huge overseas earnings components and buy investment grade municipal bonds over 5%. And gotta sell more gold & silver to capture this price spike.
In the department of "Be careful what you wish for, you might get it", I see some hedge funds were liquidated Friday in the municipal bond and mortgage-backed sectors, helping create more "credit" panic and pushing stocks down. Hence my pain Friday was a bit "self-wished-upon" [a coined word]. I'll bear that kind of pain so this cesspool of hedge funds can be drained.
In the department of "Don't open your mouth and show people you're stupid", Obama's wife said that there was nothing she could be proud of in America until her hubby ran for President. D'uh ? Then she has bashed excessive executive pay, but I see she makes $300K for being VP of "Community Affairs" for Chicago Medical Center. D'uh ? I wonder what a nurse makes ... someone who actually helps and cares for people ? Or a high school teacher ?
And in the fearmonger department now blathering about "stagflation", I read that the year-over-year core PCE deflator was ... 2.2%. Zounds !
In the "buy low, sell high ... or sell high, buy low department", the obvious trade is sell gold and silver and TIPs and Treasuries and buy stocks, municipal bonds, and corporate bonds. I see the pumpsters are saying the opposite: sell loans, buy crops from this week's Barron's.
Gotta give Mrs. B more money ... see, a good husband gives his wife money to invest ;-) .... to buy big companies like KO and BA that have huge overseas earnings components and buy investment grade municipal bonds over 5%. And gotta sell more gold & silver to capture this price spike.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Mud Wrestling
That's another name for my metaphor of market action as a herd of elephants stomping in the mud, looking for a trend to head out to a new waterhole. The world is awash in metaphors and similes nowadays, and the typical babblevision pundit sounds like a modern day "Sancho Panza" spewing out mountains of metaphors instead of Sancho's proverbs which infuriated Don Quixote but delighted noble listeners.
Here is the legend for my metaphor of today:
Elephants = Beefers = Big, Evil Funds.
Mud = trendless, choppy market action
Stomping = trading
Waterhole = profits
I like animal metaphors. They capture the actions and psychology behind some individual and collective human activities. As well they should, since humans are a mentally advanced animal. Humans still have much primitive animal brain components and human behavior is not so different from animals. I guess paleo-antropologists say humans are about ten million years in evolutionary time from gorillas and spent most of the last two million years as hunter-gatherers in the wilderness. So we differ little from animals in our deepest mental functions.
Short term, perception rules the markets.
Long term, reality rules.
For months, the rich have been panicked as they think another 2001-2003 market collapse is imminent. You see, that's the "lesson" they learned and now they think preservation of capital is the most important goal now. In old days, that meant bonds. But they don't just buy some bonds now. The trendy thing to do which they have "learned" at the country or city club is to use hedge funds - an alternative "investment" to provide "stable" returns. Now they "invest" in hedge funds which are just trading pools. Notice the false precedent: how do you "invest" in a "trading" fund ? You are just hiring a manager to trade on your behalf, not investing. So as all marginal funds are just piled into trading funds, how can a new trend develop ?
Why the chop/yo-yo/ping-pong/mud stomping ? A trend in some groups starts, but after a bit a group of "smart" traders "decide" to short it, and the group stops going up, possibly generating selling from some longs and then the group declines as the stocks go down under that pressure as more longs liquidate. So it's back to the beginning and the cycle conintues. No net gains, just yo-yo/ping-pong/mud stomping action.
If all the world's a trade, how can a trend develop ?
Over time, reality will rule. the steady pressure of corporate profits, stock buybacks, and real buyers on the dips eventually will drive up prices, creating a series of higher lows. These higher lows over time will permit the herd of trading beefers to see a new water hole in the distance, and a good bullish trend will start.
Until then, all we can do is wait, watch the real data and corporate earnings and economic news and wait. But there is evidence this process is happening. Long term, big money investors like Warren Buffet are making huge purchases of good stocks they like.
Take advantage of the inane dips caused buy beefer liquidation to buy good stocks at low prices. For example, oils and miners were knocked way down a few weks ago. And in the great wisdom of the beefers, recently they have roared back. A patient dip buyer got good stocks at low prices and now has a fine gain.
Keep doing asset allocations as needed. I have more gold to sell to get asset group under 10% in the Krypto Fund. If silver goes over $18, I will sell some of it, too.
Reality will eventually rule.
Reality:
HP reported good earnings up 38% and revenues up 13% and raised its outlook for the year.
GM building in NYC to sell for a record price over $3 billion.
ING reports good earnings, small writedown.
PS: The Street is sure eating their rich customers ... like piranhas ;-) The latest is the auction rate preferred stocks sold to the rich as a liquid, higher yield short term investment [lolol]. I guess the rich learn that there's no such thing as a free lunch. I hope the rich start seeing their hedge fund investments as similar garbage "investments".
Words of the Day:
"Execration" - noun [$10]; also "Execrable" - adj. and "Execrate" - verb, transitive
"Execration" means 1. act of cursing; 2. a curse; 3. something that is cursed or loathed.
"Execrable" means 1. deserving of execration; 2. extremely inferior, very bad.
"Execrate" means 1. to declare to be hateful or abhorent; to denounce; 2. to feel loating for; abhor; 3. to invoke a curse upon.
Sentences: Bunkerman execrates beefers, as they perform little useful function but collect high fees from the stupid rich. Their execrable activities cause needless pain for the common man trying to invest his savings. Today's blog post tried to explain why beefer activities deserve execration from all thinking people.
Here is the legend for my metaphor of today:
Elephants = Beefers = Big, Evil Funds.
Mud = trendless, choppy market action
Stomping = trading
Waterhole = profits
I like animal metaphors. They capture the actions and psychology behind some individual and collective human activities. As well they should, since humans are a mentally advanced animal. Humans still have much primitive animal brain components and human behavior is not so different from animals. I guess paleo-antropologists say humans are about ten million years in evolutionary time from gorillas and spent most of the last two million years as hunter-gatherers in the wilderness. So we differ little from animals in our deepest mental functions.
Short term, perception rules the markets.
Long term, reality rules.
For months, the rich have been panicked as they think another 2001-2003 market collapse is imminent. You see, that's the "lesson" they learned and now they think preservation of capital is the most important goal now. In old days, that meant bonds. But they don't just buy some bonds now. The trendy thing to do which they have "learned" at the country or city club is to use hedge funds - an alternative "investment" to provide "stable" returns. Now they "invest" in hedge funds which are just trading pools. Notice the false precedent: how do you "invest" in a "trading" fund ? You are just hiring a manager to trade on your behalf, not investing. So as all marginal funds are just piled into trading funds, how can a new trend develop ?
Why the chop/yo-yo/ping-pong/mud stomping ? A trend in some groups starts, but after a bit a group of "smart" traders "decide" to short it, and the group stops going up, possibly generating selling from some longs and then the group declines as the stocks go down under that pressure as more longs liquidate. So it's back to the beginning and the cycle conintues. No net gains, just yo-yo/ping-pong/mud stomping action.
If all the world's a trade, how can a trend develop ?
Over time, reality will rule. the steady pressure of corporate profits, stock buybacks, and real buyers on the dips eventually will drive up prices, creating a series of higher lows. These higher lows over time will permit the herd of trading beefers to see a new water hole in the distance, and a good bullish trend will start.
Until then, all we can do is wait, watch the real data and corporate earnings and economic news and wait. But there is evidence this process is happening. Long term, big money investors like Warren Buffet are making huge purchases of good stocks they like.
Take advantage of the inane dips caused buy beefer liquidation to buy good stocks at low prices. For example, oils and miners were knocked way down a few weks ago. And in the great wisdom of the beefers, recently they have roared back. A patient dip buyer got good stocks at low prices and now has a fine gain.
Keep doing asset allocations as needed. I have more gold to sell to get asset group under 10% in the Krypto Fund. If silver goes over $18, I will sell some of it, too.
Reality will eventually rule.
Reality:
HP reported good earnings up 38% and revenues up 13% and raised its outlook for the year.
GM building in NYC to sell for a record price over $3 billion.
ING reports good earnings, small writedown.
PS: The Street is sure eating their rich customers ... like piranhas ;-) The latest is the auction rate preferred stocks sold to the rich as a liquid, higher yield short term investment [lolol]. I guess the rich learn that there's no such thing as a free lunch. I hope the rich start seeing their hedge fund investments as similar garbage "investments".
Words of the Day:
"Execration" - noun [$10]; also "Execrable" - adj. and "Execrate" - verb, transitive
"Execration" means 1. act of cursing; 2. a curse; 3. something that is cursed or loathed.
"Execrable" means 1. deserving of execration; 2. extremely inferior, very bad.
"Execrate" means 1. to declare to be hateful or abhorent; to denounce; 2. to feel loating for; abhor; 3. to invoke a curse upon.
Sentences: Bunkerman execrates beefers, as they perform little useful function but collect high fees from the stupid rich. Their execrable activities cause needless pain for the common man trying to invest his savings. Today's blog post tried to explain why beefer activities deserve execration from all thinking people.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Fact Tuesday
Hehe, good pun, no ?
So after yesterday's erudite post of scholarly thoughts [ ;-) ], today reverts to the markets. Since Babblevision and so much of the financial press provides an incessant stream of unsupported opinion [ aka fearmongering, etc. ], I want to give you a diegesis* of facts from the news of this weekend and today.
1. Copper breaks up out of a consolidation pattern to $3.67
2. Three major steel makers agree to 65% price increases for iron ore.
3. Oil back to $97.
So do those facts evince** recession for the economy? No.
Soon, the reality of the growing world economy will provide sepulture*** to all the fearmongering and recession-mongering those beefer bears.
Be patient. Buy good stocks on dips.
PS: Europe was up bigtime on Monday; Asia was up last night. US futures are up.
PPS: The problems in the aution rate municiple market means big refinancing business for the muni bond underwriters, viz, many big banks.
Words of the Day
*Diegesis - noun [$1000]; also "diegetic" adj.
"Diegesis" means 1. narration, narrative; in a speech, the statement of the case; 2. a narrative; a statement of the case.
Sentence: see * above.
**Evince - verb, transitive [$10]
"Evince" means 1. indicate, to make evident; 2. show that one has (a quality)
Sentence: see ** above; or "Hillary's campaign evinces collapse." This fine word permits one to succinctly make that statement, versus an the Gen Y version: "Hillary;'s campaign looks like it's going to collapse." One word, "evince" replaces "looks like its going to".
***Sepulture - noun [$10] (literary) [rhymes with "sepulcher" - accent on 1st syllable]
"Sepulture" means the act or an instance of burying or putting in the grave.
Sentence: see *** above; or "Will the voters of Ohio and Texas give sepulture to Hillary's campaign."
So after yesterday's erudite post of scholarly thoughts [ ;-) ], today reverts to the markets. Since Babblevision and so much of the financial press provides an incessant stream of unsupported opinion [ aka fearmongering, etc. ], I want to give you a diegesis* of facts from the news of this weekend and today.
1. Copper breaks up out of a consolidation pattern to $3.67
2. Three major steel makers agree to 65% price increases for iron ore.
3. Oil back to $97.
So do those facts evince** recession for the economy? No.
Soon, the reality of the growing world economy will provide sepulture*** to all the fearmongering and recession-mongering those beefer bears.
Be patient. Buy good stocks on dips.
PS: Europe was up bigtime on Monday; Asia was up last night. US futures are up.
PPS: The problems in the aution rate municiple market means big refinancing business for the muni bond underwriters, viz, many big banks.
Words of the Day
*Diegesis - noun [$1000]; also "diegetic" adj.
"Diegesis" means 1. narration, narrative; in a speech, the statement of the case; 2. a narrative; a statement of the case.
Sentence: see * above.
**Evince - verb, transitive [$10]
"Evince" means 1. indicate, to make evident; 2. show that one has (a quality)
Sentence: see ** above; or "Hillary's campaign evinces collapse." This fine word permits one to succinctly make that statement, versus an the Gen Y version: "Hillary;'s campaign looks like it's going to collapse." One word, "evince" replaces "looks like its going to".
***Sepulture - noun [$10] (literary) [rhymes with "sepulcher" - accent on 1st syllable]
"Sepulture" means the act or an instance of burying or putting in the grave.
Sentence: see *** above; or "Will the voters of Ohio and Texas give sepulture to Hillary's campaign."
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Gospel
That word originally meant, "good news". And that is what I will give today.
GDP in Japan grew at 3.7% (annual rate), compared to 1.4% forecast by economists. So where did that growth come from ? The US - nahhh. China - probably, and the rest of Asia, too. I've wrtten here before about my long term thinking that a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" that will develop and become a major force in world economic growth. So this rise in GDP of Japan despite US weakness in the same time period suggests this is now happening.
The Japanese stock market was up over 4% and the other major markets in Asia - India, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan - were up strongly, too.
What else does this "fact" tell us ? World economic momentum is not slowing. The US no longer is the elephant driving all the world's economies.
Battleship Ben tesitfies today with his annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony. I expect him to stress relieving economic risk, and toss a well-gnawed bone to inflation hawks.
Words of the Day
#1a - "sentient" - noun and adj. [$10]
"Sentient" means responsive to or conscious of sense impressions.
Sentence: Success in independent long term investing require one to be sentient by paying attention to, and thinking about economic and corporate facts and events in time.
#1b - "insentient" - adj. [$10]
"Insentient" means without consciousness or sensation: inanimate
[for sentence, see below]
#2 - "theurgy" - noun [$10]
"Theurgy" means 1a. supernatural or divine agency esp. in human affairs; 1b. the art of securing this; 2. a system of white magic performed by Neoplatonists.
Sentence: Many hucksters offer stock traders an insentient theurgy of charts and lines to divine the future prices, at a charge, of course.
#3 - "deliquesce" - verb - intransitive [$10]
"Deliquesce" means to become liquid, melt.
Sentence - Will this rally deliquesce under a new wave of beefer fearmongering, or will rationality prevail and help it gain momentum ?
PS: Hmmm ... hehe ... I said "huckster" ... does that remind anyone of "Huckabee" ?
PPS: Eurozone GDP Q4 growth better than expected, too.
GDP in Japan grew at 3.7% (annual rate), compared to 1.4% forecast by economists. So where did that growth come from ? The US - nahhh. China - probably, and the rest of Asia, too. I've wrtten here before about my long term thinking that a "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere" that will develop and become a major force in world economic growth. So this rise in GDP of Japan despite US weakness in the same time period suggests this is now happening.
The Japanese stock market was up over 4% and the other major markets in Asia - India, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan - were up strongly, too.
What else does this "fact" tell us ? World economic momentum is not slowing. The US no longer is the elephant driving all the world's economies.
Battleship Ben tesitfies today with his annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony. I expect him to stress relieving economic risk, and toss a well-gnawed bone to inflation hawks.
Words of the Day
#1a - "sentient" - noun and adj. [$10]
"Sentient" means responsive to or conscious of sense impressions.
Sentence: Success in independent long term investing require one to be sentient by paying attention to, and thinking about economic and corporate facts and events in time.
#1b - "insentient" - adj. [$10]
"Insentient" means without consciousness or sensation: inanimate
[for sentence, see below]
#2 - "theurgy" - noun [$10]
"Theurgy" means 1a. supernatural or divine agency esp. in human affairs; 1b. the art of securing this; 2. a system of white magic performed by Neoplatonists.
Sentence: Many hucksters offer stock traders an insentient theurgy of charts and lines to divine the future prices, at a charge, of course.
#3 - "deliquesce" - verb - intransitive [$10]
"Deliquesce" means to become liquid, melt.
Sentence - Will this rally deliquesce under a new wave of beefer fearmongering, or will rationality prevail and help it gain momentum ?
PS: Hmmm ... hehe ... I said "huckster" ... does that remind anyone of "Huckabee" ?
PPS: Eurozone GDP Q4 growth better than expected, too.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Whither Wednesday ?
Nice alliteration, no ?
Ms. Market had to dance some odd tunes for some drunken beefers yesterday, as they decided in their infinite wisdom [ not! ] to hit the Nazz in the afternoon with a bear raid. Their antics are really getting old. For months all we've seen is drunken beefers pounding each other, sometimes rushing the bar to buy groups of stocks, sometimes rushing out of the saloon in panic. Meanwhile, the US economy, ex Wall Street induced panic in some debt markets, is perking along as proven by non-financial earnings for Q4. At some point this will resolve itself as so much stock is slowly ending in the hands of real buyers on these endless dips caused by the beefer brawling.
Doing nothing now, except I will try to sell some more gold today if I can get close to $900/oz.
And Hillary's campaign machine is running out of oil as she suffers from lack of that crucial element, viz., votes. Obama crushed her in DC, MD and VA. The MD and VA margins were quite shocking, as he won by over 20 pts. So she might last a few more weeks, but without some miracle, she will lose.
And that brings us to the words of the day :-))
Word of the Day #1 - "veracity" - noun [$10] - this card in my word file dates from my high school days over 35 years ago.
Veracity means 1. truthfullness, honesty; 2. accuracy
Sentence: The fundamental problem that Hillary has in seeking voter support is that her inherent lack of veracity is now widely recognized and accepted.
Word of the Day #2 - "hermeneutic" - adj. [$10]
Hermeneutic means interpretive, explanatory.
Sentence: #1 - This blog seeks to provide hermeneutic reasons for the stock markets' seeming random motion. #2 - The sentence I used to show the meaning of veracity is also a hermeneutic example of why Hillary is losing this contest. ;-)
Gosh, what will I use for material for my sentences when Hillary is out of the Presidential contest ? ;-)
Ms. Market had to dance some odd tunes for some drunken beefers yesterday, as they decided in their infinite wisdom [ not! ] to hit the Nazz in the afternoon with a bear raid. Their antics are really getting old. For months all we've seen is drunken beefers pounding each other, sometimes rushing the bar to buy groups of stocks, sometimes rushing out of the saloon in panic. Meanwhile, the US economy, ex Wall Street induced panic in some debt markets, is perking along as proven by non-financial earnings for Q4. At some point this will resolve itself as so much stock is slowly ending in the hands of real buyers on these endless dips caused by the beefer brawling.
Doing nothing now, except I will try to sell some more gold today if I can get close to $900/oz.
And Hillary's campaign machine is running out of oil as she suffers from lack of that crucial element, viz., votes. Obama crushed her in DC, MD and VA. The MD and VA margins were quite shocking, as he won by over 20 pts. So she might last a few more weeks, but without some miracle, she will lose.
And that brings us to the words of the day :-))
Word of the Day #1 - "veracity" - noun [$10] - this card in my word file dates from my high school days over 35 years ago.
Veracity means 1. truthfullness, honesty; 2. accuracy
Sentence: The fundamental problem that Hillary has in seeking voter support is that her inherent lack of veracity is now widely recognized and accepted.
Word of the Day #2 - "hermeneutic" - adj. [$10]
Hermeneutic means interpretive, explanatory.
Sentence: #1 - This blog seeks to provide hermeneutic reasons for the stock markets' seeming random motion. #2 - The sentence I used to show the meaning of veracity is also a hermeneutic example of why Hillary is losing this contest. ;-)
Gosh, what will I use for material for my sentences when Hillary is out of the Presidential contest ? ;-)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
