While in my hometown, I had a pizza from the same shop where I used to get them in high school days. It was as good as ever and practically free: an extra large, 14" pie with everything, including bits of sweet pineapple. Mmmm tasty. All that for $11.75, the same price holding for several years. There never was any inflation - that was a beefer & pension fund induced bubble, thanks to the usual suspects. I guess they aren't "suspects" anymore, though. Almost everyone not in the pocket of the Street now sees that hot money bought all the oil in the world and ran the price to $140/barrel, far, far beyond a real clearing price based on supply & demand.
But nothing has yet been done about this systemic problem. No serious regulation on derivatives or hedge funds. Sham "investments" like ultrashort ETFs and commodity ETFs are sold to the gullible public. At least some 401K administrators and pension fund managers are stopping the "vig" payoffs by going to cheap index funds for most of their equity investments. But a lot more should be done.
Meanwhile, La Grande Boucher (aka Obama) seems to have decided to declare war on small business. The health care plan wants to force business owners to become mothers of their workers by mandating payments for the workers' health care. And he wants to tax them massively, which will inhibit their growth by destroying their ability to amass savings to increase equity capital. He and his lackey, Sheila Bair, refuse to provide some support to CIT, which lends to innumerable small and medium sized businesses. I suppose that's due to their assessment that most small business owners are Republicans.
What other "unintended consequences" exist for Obama's schemes ? The national health care program will increase outsourcing to Asia. As will the "cap & trade" carbon cartel. The Bloviator-in-Chief has a jobs plan, all right: it's a jobs plan for China, India, Korea, Malaysia and the rest of Asia.
Sigh ... it's clear that no one in the Obama administration knows how a business is actually run.
All this troubles me. And the other little "birdie" singing in my ear is this insidious attack on Battleship Ben Bernanke. Until and IF Obama reappoints him, I will be quite troubled and might be unable to get very long again in Obama Fund.
The market needs to set a new intermediate term high (two consecutive closing days in the S&P 960 area) or a pattern of lower lows and lower highs will give the chart a serious negative slant. The recent pullback in the S&P - probably mostly beefer selling and short selling that ended the past few days in a wave of covering) - DID make a lower low. So the S&P really needs a higher high to cancel that poor pattern.
By the way, although Obama Fund missed the recent rally, Fido Fund did participate and is back to 60% up year to date.
Word of the Day
"Booboisie" - noun [$10 or $100, depending on your dictionary]; coined by H. L. Mencken in 1922.
Booboisie means 1. a class of people made up of the gullible and stupid; 2. a segment of the general public composed of uneducated, uncultured persons.
Sentence: After attempting to watch a bit of TV (cable) in Ohio, there is no doubt that the booboisie is now the dominant class in America. And it must even be the growth market for CNBC, as the formerly useful channel is now simply a game show comprised of 15 second bits of fluff.
Le Mot de la Semaine
"Démentir" - verb (transitive), conjugates like partir and sentir.
Démentir means 1. to deny, to refute, to contradict; 2. to belie, to disappoint.
La Phrase: Les actes de l'administration d'Obama dément ses paroles.
Sentence: The actions of the Obama administration belie its words.
Monday, July 20, 2009
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Off to Ohio
I'll be in my hometown in Ohio for awhile, perhaps until late next week, It's a 13 hour drive, so I'm getting an early start. GOLD MIST is prepped and in top condition.
I'll be listening to a CD course titled "Great Minds of the Western Tradition" on the drive. The Teaching Company produces these courses and nearly all of them are excellent.
I wonder how many of Obama's "shovel-ready" projects I'll run into ?
The bears must not have found too many sellers lower, so it seems they covered yesterday afternoon. I don't expect a panic, just a nervous grind lower until more good news arrives.
Enjoy the fun.
I'll be listening to a CD course titled "Great Minds of the Western Tradition" on the drive. The Teaching Company produces these courses and nearly all of them are excellent.
I wonder how many of Obama's "shovel-ready" projects I'll run into ?
The bears must not have found too many sellers lower, so it seems they covered yesterday afternoon. I don't expect a panic, just a nervous grind lower until more good news arrives.
Enjoy the fun.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
In the Mud
The market is stuck in the mud, waiting for a tow truck in the form of some more good news about the economy. That will come, but when ? More real buyers are needed to overcome trader bearish "bets". Now we see the cost of the poorly designed Obama stimulus plan. Perhaps the word, "designed", overstates its organization. The Obama plan was mostly a hodgepodge of bureaucratic grabs at money. The hogs at the trough in DC elbowed out the real job creation spending.
The roads in Massachusetts are a mess of potholes, yet repair activites seem rare. What has been done for Internet infrastructure spending ? Talk.
China put its money to work quickly and has gotten results. DC dances around the maypole.
New tax increases on the "wealthy" are talking points to "pay" for health care.
New "carbon" tax would be huge over time, but it's just tilting at windmills. [That metaphor comes from the fine book by Cervantes, Don Quixote.]
The Pickens wind farm craters.
France gets 70% of its power from nuclear power, yet the US can't just copy France for a realistic, long term energy program.
G8 dopes talk about global warming - such hot air.
China top dog goes home to deal with rioters. Gosh, and yet talk of a new global reserve currency abound. I dealt with that nonsense here a few weeks ago. But the talk does probably scare off some real investors.
CA heads to oblivion. The pain to suppliers of services & goods to the state will soon kill businesses.
The Fed still does the job, but has just one more mission. Dear Ben: put together a plan to fund commercial mortgage refinancings. Plenty of good loans to good buildings with adequate income can't find a refinancing takeout. Your aid is needed. I had thought the TALF would do it, but the details are lacking. A five to seven year loan term is needed.
Eventually this will get worked out - maybe the fall. But the sloppiness of Obama's efforts to date are hurting now.
ISM data does show improvement. So not all is bad. People want to work to improve their lives. We still have that tailwind, unless government screws them too badly to wipe out hope.
Markets
I wait in cash in Obama Fund. Fido Fund is about 110% long. At 830 on the S&P, I will start looking again unless the news flow changes sooner.
Travel
Tomorrow early I drive to Ohio for an stay of uncertain duration for family matters. I do not have Internet access their with any consistency, so will not post new blogs until I return.
Word of the Day
"Provender" - noun [$10]
Provender means 1. dry food for domestic animals; 2. food, victuals.
Sentence: The big hogs in DC are getting most of the provender from the stimulus plan, so growth in the herd of common people is weaker than it would be had the food been better distributed. Thanks, Obama, for doing a lazy job tending your flock so far.
The roads in Massachusetts are a mess of potholes, yet repair activites seem rare. What has been done for Internet infrastructure spending ? Talk.
China put its money to work quickly and has gotten results. DC dances around the maypole.
New tax increases on the "wealthy" are talking points to "pay" for health care.
New "carbon" tax would be huge over time, but it's just tilting at windmills. [That metaphor comes from the fine book by Cervantes, Don Quixote.]
The Pickens wind farm craters.
France gets 70% of its power from nuclear power, yet the US can't just copy France for a realistic, long term energy program.
G8 dopes talk about global warming - such hot air.
China top dog goes home to deal with rioters. Gosh, and yet talk of a new global reserve currency abound. I dealt with that nonsense here a few weeks ago. But the talk does probably scare off some real investors.
CA heads to oblivion. The pain to suppliers of services & goods to the state will soon kill businesses.
The Fed still does the job, but has just one more mission. Dear Ben: put together a plan to fund commercial mortgage refinancings. Plenty of good loans to good buildings with adequate income can't find a refinancing takeout. Your aid is needed. I had thought the TALF would do it, but the details are lacking. A five to seven year loan term is needed.
Eventually this will get worked out - maybe the fall. But the sloppiness of Obama's efforts to date are hurting now.
ISM data does show improvement. So not all is bad. People want to work to improve their lives. We still have that tailwind, unless government screws them too badly to wipe out hope.
Markets
I wait in cash in Obama Fund. Fido Fund is about 110% long. At 830 on the S&P, I will start looking again unless the news flow changes sooner.
Travel
Tomorrow early I drive to Ohio for an stay of uncertain duration for family matters. I do not have Internet access their with any consistency, so will not post new blogs until I return.
Word of the Day
"Provender" - noun [$10]
Provender means 1. dry food for domestic animals; 2. food, victuals.
Sentence: The big hogs in DC are getting most of the provender from the stimulus plan, so growth in the herd of common people is weaker than it would be had the food been better distributed. Thanks, Obama, for doing a lazy job tending your flock so far.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
The New Normal
That's the 2009 version of "it's different this time". Of course, it's not and normal is the same old normal. People are the same. The "new normal" is the same old normal with lots of excesses tossed onto the dustbins of history.
I thought I'd toss out a few ideas I've mentioned here over the past few years for the "new normal".
People will prepare and cook more of their own food. Food is practically free if one buys simple ingredients and prepares the meal at home, saving the leftovers to spread the labor over a second meal.
McMansions in exurbia will have little demand. Why own such a big home that requires "help" to maintain and forces a lengthy commute.
Central city and small town living will be the trend. Suburbs will be stagnant.
Shopping centers must be re-invented to offer something that is not available online. Services are one possibility. The Apple stores with their service centers make a lot of sense.
Microsoft will stay in its lengthy decline. Vista stinks, Vista Explorer 8 is both nosey and crummy.
Overpaying will be seen as the killer of companies and investments.
The home will be seen as a place to live, not as an investment or as a piggy-bank.
This is a hope: Companies will start to cut or cap the pay of the top executive suite.
Another hope: Education in real learning and real skills will get a re-birth, and less novel and entertaining subjects.
Today's silly infatuation: green jobs.
World economic growth will be led by the emerging markets and eastern Europe, with the US, western Europe and Japan providing the same old 2-3% growth. Soon this will be recognized and the stock market will return quickly to the long plateau on the 100 year wall chart, viz. around 1200 in the S&P.
The structure of the world was set in the early 1920s in both economic and social contexts. All we see now are incremental changes and technologies. That great song by Julie Andrews, "Thoroughly Modern Millie" makes the point.
I'm open to other ideas & will post any "good" ones.
Markets
Obama Fund is now all cash. I locked in a 31% year-to-date gain. Those stocks in Obama Fund are really good ones for "trading" a return to the plateau as they make huge percentage moves. In hindsight, I should have traded them a bit more on an individual basis.
Once my distractions end, I'll look for re-entries on a stock-by-stock basis.
I also sold GE in Fido Fund. That stock looks like still water until financial regulation clarifies the status of GE Capital.
Word of the Day
"Conceit" - noun [$10 - meaning #2]
Conceit means 1. personal vanity, pride; 2. (literary) a. a far-fetched comparision, especially as a stylistic affectation; a convoluted or unlikely metaphor; b. a fanciful notion.
Sentence: The great overused conceit of modern environmental leftism is the conceit "green" for their hair-brained schemes. Brown would fit better, to match the color of the manure they favor instead of efficient, white nitrogen fertilizer. Most "green" ideas belong in the outhouse.
Słowo Tygodnia
"Gówno" - noun, neuter
Gówno means s*** (vulgar, very informal) [pronounced 'guvno' with the 'u' as in 'put', not 'putt']
Zdanie: Energia zielona ? To jest gówno !
Sentence: Green energy ? That's s*** !
I thought I'd toss out a few ideas I've mentioned here over the past few years for the "new normal".
People will prepare and cook more of their own food. Food is practically free if one buys simple ingredients and prepares the meal at home, saving the leftovers to spread the labor over a second meal.
McMansions in exurbia will have little demand. Why own such a big home that requires "help" to maintain and forces a lengthy commute.
Central city and small town living will be the trend. Suburbs will be stagnant.
Shopping centers must be re-invented to offer something that is not available online. Services are one possibility. The Apple stores with their service centers make a lot of sense.
Microsoft will stay in its lengthy decline. Vista stinks, Vista Explorer 8 is both nosey and crummy.
Overpaying will be seen as the killer of companies and investments.
The home will be seen as a place to live, not as an investment or as a piggy-bank.
This is a hope: Companies will start to cut or cap the pay of the top executive suite.
Another hope: Education in real learning and real skills will get a re-birth, and less novel and entertaining subjects.
Today's silly infatuation: green jobs.
World economic growth will be led by the emerging markets and eastern Europe, with the US, western Europe and Japan providing the same old 2-3% growth. Soon this will be recognized and the stock market will return quickly to the long plateau on the 100 year wall chart, viz. around 1200 in the S&P.
The structure of the world was set in the early 1920s in both economic and social contexts. All we see now are incremental changes and technologies. That great song by Julie Andrews, "Thoroughly Modern Millie" makes the point.
I'm open to other ideas & will post any "good" ones.
Markets
Obama Fund is now all cash. I locked in a 31% year-to-date gain. Those stocks in Obama Fund are really good ones for "trading" a return to the plateau as they make huge percentage moves. In hindsight, I should have traded them a bit more on an individual basis.
Once my distractions end, I'll look for re-entries on a stock-by-stock basis.
I also sold GE in Fido Fund. That stock looks like still water until financial regulation clarifies the status of GE Capital.
Word of the Day
"Conceit" - noun [$10 - meaning #2]
Conceit means 1. personal vanity, pride; 2. (literary) a. a far-fetched comparision, especially as a stylistic affectation; a convoluted or unlikely metaphor; b. a fanciful notion.
Sentence: The great overused conceit of modern environmental leftism is the conceit "green" for their hair-brained schemes. Brown would fit better, to match the color of the manure they favor instead of efficient, white nitrogen fertilizer. Most "green" ideas belong in the outhouse.
Słowo Tygodnia
"Gówno" - noun, neuter
Gówno means s*** (vulgar, very informal) [pronounced 'guvno' with the 'u' as in 'put', not 'putt']
Zdanie: Energia zielona ? To jest gówno !
Sentence: Green energy ? That's s*** !
Monday, July 6, 2009
Monday Rumblings
California moves toward default.
Europe is down early.
Riots in Xingiang province in China.
Short interest rising.
An intermediate term H&S is forming on the S&P 500.
I worry that big money beefers who bought the lows are about to exit, and that others are going to push the bear side again. With limited positive cash flows, there really isn't much support if this consolidation range is broken to the downside.
And I worry about that fellow riding in my chariot [figuratively] who was whispering to me when Obama Fund was up 65% year to date, saying "you are not a god".
I also have many distractions. Perhaps these are affecting my will to be steadfast. Or not.
Nothing is certain until done, but I might cut back Obama Fund's long position today.
PS: As posted in the comments early, I did sell out Obama Fund to cash, locking in a 31% year to date gain. The way I read the chart, a red close breaks the H&S neckline down (it tilts a bit). With futures so weak early, it seems clear little or no new cash came into stocks in the start of the quarter. I also sold GE in Fido Fund. That stocks seems dead for a while until the financial regulation clears up the status of GE Capital.
On a decent pulback, I'd re-load unless the news gets worse.
Word of the Day
"Sang-froid" - noun
Sang-froid means composure, imperturbability.
Sentence: Trying to maintain snag-froid in the face of numerous distractions and demands can be quite difficult.
Europe is down early.
Riots in Xingiang province in China.
Short interest rising.
An intermediate term H&S is forming on the S&P 500.
I worry that big money beefers who bought the lows are about to exit, and that others are going to push the bear side again. With limited positive cash flows, there really isn't much support if this consolidation range is broken to the downside.
And I worry about that fellow riding in my chariot [figuratively] who was whispering to me when Obama Fund was up 65% year to date, saying "you are not a god".
I also have many distractions. Perhaps these are affecting my will to be steadfast. Or not.
Nothing is certain until done, but I might cut back Obama Fund's long position today.
PS: As posted in the comments early, I did sell out Obama Fund to cash, locking in a 31% year to date gain. The way I read the chart, a red close breaks the H&S neckline down (it tilts a bit). With futures so weak early, it seems clear little or no new cash came into stocks in the start of the quarter. I also sold GE in Fido Fund. That stocks seems dead for a while until the financial regulation clears up the status of GE Capital.
On a decent pulback, I'd re-load unless the news gets worse.
Word of the Day
"Sang-froid" - noun
Sang-froid means composure, imperturbability.
Sentence: Trying to maintain snag-froid in the face of numerous distractions and demands can be quite difficult.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Will the Sun Ever Shine Again ?
Living here in northeast Massachusetts, the question should be taken literally. For two weeks it has been cold and rainy every day. My small yard will soon be a mushroom patch. At least I live on a hillside, so flooding is not a worry. My position was well-selected for defense against man and nature.
Listening to financial news, that question takes on sardonic meaning. Bad news is met by renewed gloom. Good news is re-interpreted as either bad or merely temporary. Pundits and some Nobel laureate economists look for a new wave of weakness upon any positive uptick.
Let's look at few facts - from FT, of course.
"The global downturn appeared close to a bottom on Wednesday after manufacturing figures from across the world suggested the worldwide recession was running out of steam in all big economies.
"The welcome news comes after nine months of the sharpest contraction in global manufacturing output since the second world war and a dramatic plunge in world trade as buyers of capital goods and consumer durables effectively went on strike. ...
"The June data on Wednesday came from a series of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, the area of the global economy hardest hit by the recession. Although the headline figures were positive only in China, the manufacturing output element of the data was positive in the US, the UK and Japan as well. "
I suppose I'll be accused of data mining. If so, it's a world-wide mine.
Markets
Yesterday was a typical day. Real buyers stepped up early, trend-followers piled on, some shorts covered. Then real buyers used patience and the beefer traders bailed and a few shorts became bold. A solid gain, if unimpressive. Beefer antics are tiring.
Word of the Day
"Salacious" - adjective [$10]; an old one from the card file
Salacious means 1. arousing sexual desire or imagination; 2. lecherous, lustful
Sentence: The salacious behavior of another Bible-thumping Republican politician is symptomatic of the decline of that party.
Le Mot Du Jour
"Chômage" - noun, masculine
Chômage means unemployment.
La Phrase: Le taux de chômage haussera aujourd'hui.
Sentence: The unemployment rate will rise today.
[By the way, when I'm unprepared, I fall back on French as it's my best foreign language.]
Listening to financial news, that question takes on sardonic meaning. Bad news is met by renewed gloom. Good news is re-interpreted as either bad or merely temporary. Pundits and some Nobel laureate economists look for a new wave of weakness upon any positive uptick.
Let's look at few facts - from FT, of course.
"The global downturn appeared close to a bottom on Wednesday after manufacturing figures from across the world suggested the worldwide recession was running out of steam in all big economies.
"The welcome news comes after nine months of the sharpest contraction in global manufacturing output since the second world war and a dramatic plunge in world trade as buyers of capital goods and consumer durables effectively went on strike. ...
"The June data on Wednesday came from a series of surveys of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, the area of the global economy hardest hit by the recession. Although the headline figures were positive only in China, the manufacturing output element of the data was positive in the US, the UK and Japan as well. "
I suppose I'll be accused of data mining. If so, it's a world-wide mine.
Markets
Yesterday was a typical day. Real buyers stepped up early, trend-followers piled on, some shorts covered. Then real buyers used patience and the beefer traders bailed and a few shorts became bold. A solid gain, if unimpressive. Beefer antics are tiring.
Word of the Day
"Salacious" - adjective [$10]; an old one from the card file
Salacious means 1. arousing sexual desire or imagination; 2. lecherous, lustful
Sentence: The salacious behavior of another Bible-thumping Republican politician is symptomatic of the decline of that party.
Le Mot Du Jour
"Chômage" - noun, masculine
Chômage means unemployment.
La Phrase: Le taux de chômage haussera aujourd'hui.
Sentence: The unemployment rate will rise today.
[By the way, when I'm unprepared, I fall back on French as it's my best foreign language.]
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
More Freeedom Now !
The endless, bit-by-bit increase in restrictions on the freedom of people in the US has to stop. The excuses which government uses to grab power are ... everything. The crypto-fascists are using any crime by one or a few criminals, or any problem seen or suffered by some groups, to seek to impose restrictions and limitations on the freedom of everyone. This philosophy of crypto-fascism is best seen by example.
A crime occurs using X. Let's ban X, even if X is owned by millions of people.
A group suffers from allergy to Y. Let's ban Y or impose limits on Y, even though 99% of people do NOT suffer from Y and even enjoy health benefits of it.
A group gets fat easily. Let's ban some types of foods from restaurants.
A terrorist event happens. Let's require every to carry an ID card.
Some parents can't control child TV viewing choices. Let's require a censorship chip in every TV.
Do you understand how this crypto-fascist ideology works ? An isolated event or problem of a few is used by the crypto-fascists to impose limitations on the freedom of everyone.
Bunkerman is leading another revolution against Crypto-Fascism. I'll now capitalize it as a recognized ideology - an insidious form of fascism itself. Crypto-Fascism hides in both major political parties in the US. The left uses crime by a few to forbid people from owning guns, etc. The right uses failed parents to censor everyone, etc.
Markets
Bears attacked yesterday after the slightly weaker consumer confidence number came out. We all know actions in spending mean more than talk, and signs of stabilized and increasing consumer spending abound. But bears used the news to attack. The raid stalled later in the day as no real selling appeared or was sparked. Overall, yesterday was a good one for the forces of light.
Word of the Day
"Comstockery" - noun [$100]; a Mencken word. After Anthony Comstock [1844-1915] US author & reformer.
Comstockery means overzealous moral censorship of the fine arts and literature, often mistaking outspoken, honest works for salacious ones.
Sentence: In the 20th century until about 1970, Crypto-Fascists engaged in comstockery to control ideas and thought in books and schools, and some still do. The US founders saw the dangers of government power and wrote the Bill of Rights. The courts finally jettisoned WW I era expediency and belatedly decided to enforce those constitutional provisions starting around 1950.
Das Wort der Woche
"Kartoffelsalat" - noun, masculine.
Kartoffelsalat means potato salad. It's a compound word. The German and American languages have thousands.
Der Satz: Bunkermann hat Bratwurst, Kartoffelsalat und Brokkoli gestern abend gegessen.
Sentence: Bunkerman ate bratwurst, potato salad and broccoli last evening.
A crime occurs using X. Let's ban X, even if X is owned by millions of people.
A group suffers from allergy to Y. Let's ban Y or impose limits on Y, even though 99% of people do NOT suffer from Y and even enjoy health benefits of it.
A group gets fat easily. Let's ban some types of foods from restaurants.
A terrorist event happens. Let's require every to carry an ID card.
Some parents can't control child TV viewing choices. Let's require a censorship chip in every TV.
Do you understand how this crypto-fascist ideology works ? An isolated event or problem of a few is used by the crypto-fascists to impose limitations on the freedom of everyone.
Bunkerman is leading another revolution against Crypto-Fascism. I'll now capitalize it as a recognized ideology - an insidious form of fascism itself. Crypto-Fascism hides in both major political parties in the US. The left uses crime by a few to forbid people from owning guns, etc. The right uses failed parents to censor everyone, etc.
Markets
Bears attacked yesterday after the slightly weaker consumer confidence number came out. We all know actions in spending mean more than talk, and signs of stabilized and increasing consumer spending abound. But bears used the news to attack. The raid stalled later in the day as no real selling appeared or was sparked. Overall, yesterday was a good one for the forces of light.
Word of the Day
"Comstockery" - noun [$100]; a Mencken word. After Anthony Comstock [1844-1915] US author & reformer.
Comstockery means overzealous moral censorship of the fine arts and literature, often mistaking outspoken, honest works for salacious ones.
Sentence: In the 20th century until about 1970, Crypto-Fascists engaged in comstockery to control ideas and thought in books and schools, and some still do. The US founders saw the dangers of government power and wrote the Bill of Rights. The courts finally jettisoned WW I era expediency and belatedly decided to enforce those constitutional provisions starting around 1950.
Das Wort der Woche
"Kartoffelsalat" - noun, masculine.
Kartoffelsalat means potato salad. It's a compound word. The German and American languages have thousands.
Der Satz: Bunkermann hat Bratwurst, Kartoffelsalat und Brokkoli gestern abend gegessen.
Sentence: Bunkerman ate bratwurst, potato salad and broccoli last evening.
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