Friday, October 9, 2009

Laughable

The Nobel committee continues to show its political and ideological biases. This morning I truly did, "laugh out loud" when I heard it awarded the Peace Prize to Obama. I thought, "for what ?" Then I heard the committee head speak on Blabberg and he said, in essence, for talking, for saying "words" that all want to hear. Europe loves Obama's smooching them and saying they he respects them now ... and will in the morning.

The Nobel committee is just being ridiculous and looks foolish; giving a purportedly prestigious prize for talking, not doing; ignoring people actually working and doing something for peace; and giving prizes for worthless talk. Lol - laughing out loud - yup, that's me.

Oh well, maybe they felt they had to make up for the Olympic committee's decision to brush aside Obama's lobbying for the Games in 2016. By the way, the track record of that prize committee is pretty bad as a predictor of future performance; it's really contrarian. I suppose that's bad news for true peace.

Actions

Je ne fais rien ... ich machte nichts ... nic nie robię ... estoy haciendo nada ... non faccio nulla ... nihil facio ... I am doing nothing.

Oddly enough, while reading the news I felt the tone of the news was changing this morning from that endless crisis blather to a more normal, general tone.

Word of the Day

"Proscenium" - noun [$10]; a Mencken word
Proscenium means the part of the stage in front of the drop or curtain, usually with the enclosing arch.
Sentence: Obama can step onto the world's proscenium today to receive for more accolades for his "performance" from his enthralled European groupies.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Ils Montent - They Go Up

Up is up.

I'm no fan of management at Alcoa (AA). They are serial blunderers. And I don't own any stocks in aluminum companies since aluminum is not a scare metal; it's very, very abundant. But this fact caught my attention in press reports of their quarterly results.

WSJ: "Alcoa said it sold more aluminum in the past three months, compared with a year earlier, due to rising shipments and declining inventories"

The company also made money: "The world's largest integrated aluminum producer posted a profit of $77 million, or 8 cents a share, in the quarter. " Analysts had expected a loss.

The world economies are increasing. Ils montent.

Last Friday I had a bit of fun. Following the style of 1960s and 1960s psychobabble, I posted a chant to harness the metal 'vibes' of readers. I was motivated by two movie scenes. First was the scene in the great movie, Moby Dick, with Gregory Peck as Capt. Ahab. At one point the great white whale, Moby Dick, rises from the deep and Capt. Ahab roars, "He Breaches" (from memory). Second was the scene in Kelly's Heroes" when the tank commander nut, Oddball, played by Donald Sutherland, notices the optimism of everyone and says, "Crazy... I mean like, so many positive waves... maybe we can't lose, you're on! "

The chant was structured using an idea of a Platonic form from numbers to have seven verses chanted seven times in seven languages. Here it is again.

"augunt ... Sie steigen ... Ils montent ... aumentano ... aumentan ... wzrastają ... they go up."

I've improved the original idea. If seven people chant this seven times seven times a day for seven days with a seven second "ommmmmmmmmm" in between each chant, this will be a perfect 7x7x7x7x7x7x7 chant - imagine that power of it - the vibes !!!

Haha, this is a joke, but it's fun.

Actions

I suppose it sounds boring, but I am doing nothing. Je ne fais rien. I'm just sitting on my positions, letting them play out. A few more movie/TV quotes come to mind.

The Emperor – Return of the Jedi: “Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.”

Hannibal Hayes – The A Team - “I just love it when a plan comes together”

Word of the Day

"Eristic" - adjective & noun [$10]
Eristic means (adjective) 1. of or characterized by disputation; 2. (of an argument or arguer) aiming at winning rather than reaching the truth; (noun) 3. the practice of disputation; 4. an exponent of disputation.
Sentence: (A) Congress seems more interested in eristics that in doings anything for the people. (B) a more erudite Rodney King might say, "Let's all stop being so eristic".

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

The European Union Survives, Stronger.

The large majority vote in Ireland a few days ago to ratify the Lisbon treaty, after narrowly defeating it last year, showed how much public opinion can change in a crisis. A crisis causes people to re-think their values and question assumptions. Decisions that could not be made in normal times can be made in or just after a crisis. A few years ago I questioned whether the EU could survive a crisis. Would its members focus on narrow, selfish interests ? Or pull together ?

At that time, I thought that it would crack up and fall apart. The events show I was wrong. Europeans seem to have learned how to live together peacefully and not resort to excess nationalism and hate-mongering of their neighbors. The big countries did not put undue pressure on the small ones. Perhaps that's because they had huge economic pressure on themselves.

The small countries realized they were far too vulnerable on their own. The vote in Ireland proved that.

I now expect all the small countries of Europe to join the Euro-zone as quickly as possible, as they know their economies and currencies are too at risk to raiders and unscrupulous or foolish financial practices. The lessons of Iceland and Hungary make this very obvious.

This is good news, a big gain for world stability. This removes a huge risk to world economic growth.

Actions

Je ne fais rien. Ich machte nichts. Nic nie robię. Estoy haciendo nada. Non faccio nulla. Nihil facio. I am doing nothing.

More precisely, I'm riding this bull elephant comfortably loaded with plenty high powered ammo in the form of a call options on stocks that I think will outperform due to overseas growth.

Word of the Day

"Mereology" - noun [$1000]; a word from logic.
Mereology means the general theory of the concept of 'part of': a 'part' is understood a section of a given object, and such a section is not identical with the object itself. The formal mathematical theory was developed by S. Lesniewśki; it is an extended system of Boolean algebra.
Sentence: Thinking about parts and wholes and how different (or alike) a part can be from the whole, that is, mereology, is quite essential to analyzing the fallacy called "composition and division". Mereology helps to critically assess many analogies and metaphors that might be false, or quite valid.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Where is Everybody ?

That question is a bit metaphorical and facetious, but also arises from a few observations.

First , many stories have appeared in the past few months about vacant, foreclosed houses in many weak real estate markets. The sun & surf locations are worst hit: CA, FL, AZ and NV. Someone once lived in those homes or they were second homes, or perhaps, bought by speculators relying on the "greater fool theory" for a profit.

Did people in those homes move elsewhere or are they renting or something else ?

Second, today's WSJ has this story: "Apartment vacancies hit their highest point since 1986, surging in cities from Raleigh, N.C., to Tacoma, Wash., as rising unemployment continued to chip away at demand during the traditionally strong summer rental months. The U.S. vacancy rate reached 7.8%, a 23-year high, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm that tracks vacancies and rents in the top 79 U.S. markets. The rate is expected to climb further in the fall and winter, when rental demand is weaker, pushing vacancies to the highest levels since Reis began its count in 1980."

That rules out the people moving to rental apartments.

So where are they ? Or did they never exist ? Were they virtual people ? Has the US population fallen ? Did lots of young people move back to their parents homes ?

To me, analyzing the home real estate bubble requires one to explain these facts and relationships.

We know the US population has not gone down. The growth rate may have fallen a lot, though, as illegal immigration is reported to be much lower due to to the weak employment market. There are also reports of illegal immigrants going home - even after many years here. That's no problem for me - but it would be interesting if some of the US real estate bubble was fueled by them - or not. I suspect they had little direct impact on home demand; indirect, knock-on demand is possible, though. Prices are determined on the margin. I don't know if it's a coincidence that the housing market boomed when the US was being overrun by illegal immigrants and cooled off and collapsed as fences were being built and tighter job rules were being imposed.

The panic of 2008 also caused serious retirement fund losses, so many retirees and near retirees probably ceased to desire a second home in the sun & surf area, or dropped plans to move there. And overextended retirees perhaps sold. That eliminates many "virtual people".

Speculators also are mostly crushed now, too. That eliminates more "virtual people".

What does this mean ? House prices won't recover to the prior highs for many years. This is the real estate cycle, which happened around 1981 and 1988-1990 periods. I remember in the last cycle, it took about ten years for my home to reach its prior high valuation (based on true neighborhood sale prices).

The market needs real people to replace all those virtual people. I say, a bit facetiously, what this nation needs is a new baby boom - a new cycle of increased household formation !

Young men - get married ! Young women - get married !

To quote that great song performed by Eddie Cantor in 1931, "Now's the Time to Fall in Love":

"Potatoes are cheaper, tomatoes are cheaper
Now's the time to fall in love
Why, the butcher, the baker, the old candlestick maker
Gave their price a downward shove
Grab yourself someone to fry your eggs and bacon
She can live just like a queen on what you're makin'
You'll find in some kind o' trouble
You're better off double
Now's the time to fall in love"

Word of the Day

"Ephemeral" - adjective [$10] an old one from the card file *
Ephemeral means lasting only a very short time.
Sentence: Will Obama's popularity be ephemeral ? Perhaps, since it seems based on emotions and hopes of people, not on any real actions or substance. Talk is cheap and eventually homo boobus will realize that. Obama needs to do, not talk. Acta non verba. [actions, not words]

To forestall flack, a $10 word is one that that I once had to look up in a dictionary, not knowing its meaning or just being unable to articulate that meaning clearly at that time. This word card is written in my handwriting of probably 40 years ago. That I now know its meaning does not reduce the value of the word.

Monday, October 5, 2009

A Day Off

I'm helping Mrs. B drive to a sheep herding event in upper New Hampshire today. We're leaving early, so I can't post today. Sorry.

Word of the Day

"Harbinger" - noun [$10] an old one from the files
Harbinger means 1. one that pioneers in or initiates a major change; 2. something that presages or foreshadows what is to come.
Sentence: One wonders if the Olympic committee thumbing its nose at Obama is a harbinger to the decline and fall of the Bloviator aka La Grande Bouche.

Friday, October 2, 2009

The Nose of the Camel

The ham hands of government are grabbing more and more power of the the health care sector, and Obama's "plan" shows signs of moving much further into that area. Once the government starts paying for something, the political forces create much pressure to control it and all its details more and more. Here are two examples.

WSJ: "Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee voted Thursday to encourage limits on the compensation of insurance executives, responding to charges that expanding health insurance coverage would enrich insurance companies. ... Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D., Ark.) said the limit is needed because insurance companies are going to reap a windfall of new customers under the legislation. "This is the right thing, and the right message to the American people,"

I don't really care about insurance executives, and I've written many times that top corporate executives are overpaid, but this level of nitpicking is ridiculous.

WSJ: "More than 660,000 seniors next year will lose the private Medicare plans they now have because some insurers are dropping coverage in response to tougher federal requirements.
Most of those beneficiaries are enrolled in a type of Medicare Advantage plan called Private Fee for Service, where enrollment has surged from about 820,000 three years ago to more than 2.44 million today. PFFS enrollees, unlike those under other Medicare Advantage plans, can see any doctor they like as long as he or she accepts payments through their plan. ... Congress, alarmed by the high cost of PFFS plans, voted in 2008 to require the plans to establish networks of providers beginning in 2011. Companies such as Humana Inc., which has established networks that can cover at least 80% of PFFS enrollees, are doing just that. But Medicare officials acknowledged Thursday that others are pulling out. Plans with a total enrollment of 667,000 people are scheduled to be canceled next year, they said."

In other words, contrary to claims of Congressmen, choice of doctors will NOT be maintained under Obama-care. Once it pays directly, Government imposes more and more requirements and coverage that eventually dictates every aspect of a health care plan.

All this should be simplified. Why is Medicare a separate system ? Why is Medicaid a separate system ? All that create huge billing complexity and more and more administration Eventually the costs of administration outweigh any claimed savings.

I recognize that people are not going to let people die in the streets from lack of care in this modern, relatively prosperous world. We should simply recognize that a level of basic health care is to be a shared benefit of society. In reality, it already is, as persons without coverage now go to the emergency rooms with illnesses and broken limbs, etc.

Provide everyone with a simple voucher (electronically) to choose their own basic care plan. If a person doesn't choose, his plan can be randomly assigned to existing, qualified plans. Health care providers would compete for our business. And people would be free to decide to spend more money to buy additional care plans, that might provide for more convenience and care, extra tests, private rooms, etc.

This is more like some European plans like Germany and France, as I understand them. The marketplace would keep costs down as plans would have to compete for our business.

How to pay ? That's for another blog.

Actions

Big drop yesterday as all the long beefers sold trading positions as the same time, as usual. And I suppose the bears piled on. These moves should be no surprise to anyone, and we should all expect them from time to time.

I have a good bit of cash from prior sales in Fido Fund to buy stocks for longer term positions, and will start looking around. I might make some 1-2-3 Fund stock buys, too, for shorter term trades.

Word of the Day

"Anfractuosity" - noun [$10] and "Anfractuous" - adjective [$100] A Big Al word !!!
Anfractuosity means 1. circuitousness; 2. intricacy.
Anfractuous means characterized by windings and turnings; sinuous; circuitous [1615-1625 back formation from anfractuosity]
Sentence: Streets in the very old sections of East coast cities and towns can be so anfractuous that one needs a compass to keep one's direction. ... or ... The anfractuosity of creating ObamaCare has become so pronounced that only a cluster FUBAR can result.

Language Bonus

Here is a chant that we can all do to create positive vibes and concentrate mental energy to increase stock prices. It says "they increase" in seven languages.

augunt ... Sie steigen ... Ils montent ... aumentano ... aumentan ... wzrastają ... they increase.

Chant this seven times with a seven second "ommmmmmmmmm" in between each chant.

This will be a perfect 7x7x7 chant - imagine that power of it !

[FYI, this is a joke, but it's fun.]

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Change and No Change

No Change

Today is the 60th anniversary of the creation of Red China by the third member of the mass killer's elite club of the 20th century, Mao. That infamous triumvirate includes Hitler and Stalin. Of the three, the megalomaniac Mao is still the face of the government of Red China. How does that nation celebrate the anniversary ? By showing its true form.

FT: [my emphases] "The People’s Republic of China celebrated its 60th birthday on Thursday with a spectacular military and civilian parade through the centre of the deserted capital Beijing.
All of China’s top leaders, including Jiang Zemin, former president, watched from the rostrum above Tiananmen – the Gate of Heavenly Peace – as the cream of China’s armed forces and military equipment paraded through Tiananmen Square.

"Away from the parade, central Beijing was completely deserted after unprecedented security measures kept the public away and ensured no unexpected incidents ruined the parade. Ordinary citizens were told to watch the show on television and blocked from getting anywhere near the festivities.

"The display of military power and unabashed patriotism included goose-stepping troops, tanks, artillery, a regiment of intercontinental nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and flyovers by about 150 military aircraft. "

That's about all one needs to know: The People - no role. Goose-stepping troops on parade. Red China is a military dictatorship run by a small group, the "Central Military Commission" via a "nomenklatura" of favored bureaucrats - in effect, an aristocracy.

Change

BBC Online: "Judges who will form the highest court in the United Kingdom are to be sworn in later, marking a major milestone in British legal history. The Justices of the Supreme Court are replacing the Law Lords as the final court of appeal for almost all cases in the United Kingdom.
The court is independent of Parliament and will hear the most important cases. "

Well, well, well ... the British decide to follow the lead of their American cousins. This is quite interesting.

When will Europe decide that the US Constitution and structure of its government is the model for a United States of Europe ? I suppose it will take another fifty years to create the psychological foundations for recognizing that reality and get comfortable with accepting that the American government structure the best compromise for disparate states to form a union.

Other Matters

Ken the Cad "retires", surprising the board of directors of BofA. Sheesh, what a worthless board.

Saturn to close as its sale to Penske collapses. That's a shame. A brand and sales style the customer actually likes gets dumped. How rational is that ?

WSJ: "NEW DELHI -- India is poised for a big increase in its civilian nuclear capabilities. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday stressed the importance of nuclear energy in bridging the country's yawning energy gap, as Indian and international companies line up to enter a market opened by last year's U.S.-India nuclear deal."

So India joins the nations that are rational about energy growth, viz., going nuclear. When will the US move back to the only true solution to its energy problem ? Probably not until something breaks the grip of the Green Bishops on policy in the US.

Actions

I am doing nothing.
Je ne fais rien.
Ich machte nichts.
Nic nie robię.
Estoy haciendo nada.
Nihil facio.

[I still need this in Italian - coming soon.]

Word of the Day

"Hebetude" - noun [$10] literary; another Big Al word (and used on Gilligan's Island, too)!
Hebetude means dullness.
Sentence: After a couple years of market ping-pong games by the beefers, all these intraday moves on no significant news generates nothing but a heavy hebetude in the weary. Why do I even look intraday any more ?

Słowo Tygodnia

"Wiedzieć" - verb, imperfective, fourth conjugation
Wiedzieć means to know, in a general sense of something, everything, nothing.
Zdanie: Nic nie wiem.
Sentence: I know nothing.