Nothing is happening - it sure seems like a typical Wednesday.
The Dow hit a recovery high yesterday. Yawn. The S&P 500 got to within one sneeze of its recovery highs. Why ?
The bears and doomsters fail to realize that returning to a prior know condition or state is much easier than growth into a new domain. They use growth rates appropriate for "new growth" applied to recession earnings levels and moan, "too far, too fast". But they are simply using the wrong method for assessing the changes.
I suppose an extended metaphor might help illuminate this concept. Suppose you are digging a hole in "virgin" earth (undug previously). That ground is going to be firm and hard. You'll have to really put your foot on the shovel and push it into the ground, and break the adhesion of the earth to itself. Now fill it in, and dig again. It's easy now - you probably don't even have to use your foot to remove the dirt with the shovel.
Another metaphor. Suppose you had many years of Latin in high school. And 40 years later, you decide to re-learn Latin. Guess what ? It's a LOT easier to recover that knowledge than it was to learn it first. This is something I now have personal experience with, as I am doing just that.
This is why "return to normalcy" can occur with great rapidity. Everyone already knows how to do what they were doing three years ago. So everyone (worldwide) can simply to revert to "normal" behavior once the panic is over. A bit of government stimulus helps regain the psychological confidence. Once that hits, the race begins to reclaim old business everywhere.
Actions
I sold the S&P call options yesterday, booking a 50% gain on quite respectable size. Although I still expect S&P 1200 soon (year end), who knows what the future will bring ? And with the beefers out there, maybe they'll attack and let me re-buy at lower levels.
As I posted in the comments upon the sale of the final chunk, "Je ne suis pas un goinfre" - I am not a greedy pig.
I still have some calls on HBC, MT and BA. HBC reported in Europe today and is trading up. HBC says loss provisions are decreasing - that's good. I'll read the report and decide later whether to sell or hold a few more days.
Word of the Day
"Quondam" - attributive adjective [$10]
Quondam means that once was; sometime; former.
Sentence: Returning to one's quondam state or condition is usually much easier than changing to, or learning, something new.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Monday, November 9, 2009
Why Did the Berlin Wall Fall ?
This quote from today's Book of the Week is the answer: "We do not interfere in the internal affairs of Poland. The Poles must solve their problems themselves." [Book of the Week, page 504] That was part of a press release on August 16, 1989 from the Soviet Foreign Office. To understand the fall of the Berlin Wall, you must look east to Poland and further east to the Soviet Union. In early 1989, Poland was creating the first democratic government under communism and the question was, 'Would the Soviet Union permit it ?" Or would they use the huge military forces stationed in Poland and Germany to crush it, as they had done in 1968 in Czechoslovakia.
Gorbachev was trying to reform the Soviet Union from a closed, one party state ruled by the communist party to a more pluralistic government that could have more economic growth. He refused to unleashed the KGB hardline killers and army to crush glimmers of nascent freedom in Poland. If such was ever even considered, I suspect he realized the Poles would fight. History has to give him credit for being a mostly decent man, if wrong about communism.
Without Soviet Army support, the communist party in Poland could not hold sole power - or any power in the end as it had no public support. Democracy and freedom in Poland started a true domino effect. The Communist party ruling east Germany could not hold on as both that statement quoted above showed that the Soviet Union would not fight to keep it in power and the existence of a democratic Poland further was a physical roadblock for Soviet military pressure on Germany.
A future book of the week (once I finish it) references a statement by Toqueville that for a totalitarian order, the moment of maximum danger is when they initiate the reform process. That proved true for the Leninist regime in the Soviet Union and its satellites in eastern Europe. The entire edifice was rotten and without constant effort, it would collapse. Gorbachev stopped trying to hold it together at all costs. Poland led the wave of freedom culminating the fall of the Berlin wall.
That's quite an interesting twist, no ? East German freedom owed to Polish (peaceful) freedom fighters.
Book of the Week
God's Playground - A History of Poland, volume II 1795 to present, by Norman Davies. Look at a map of all of Europe. The western nations with which most Americans are familiar represent about 1/2 of Europe. How can anyone understand Europe and its future prospects without understanding a LOT more about the eastern half ? This book helps tremendously. Very well researched and written, Davies thoroughly covers the Polish people, culture and nation-building as Poland arose like a phoenix after being swallowed by the 18th century empires of Russia, Prussia and Austria, and then later was reborn again after the immense cruelties of Hitler and Stalin jointly threatened to exterminate the Polish people.
Gorbachev was trying to reform the Soviet Union from a closed, one party state ruled by the communist party to a more pluralistic government that could have more economic growth. He refused to unleashed the KGB hardline killers and army to crush glimmers of nascent freedom in Poland. If such was ever even considered, I suspect he realized the Poles would fight. History has to give him credit for being a mostly decent man, if wrong about communism.
Without Soviet Army support, the communist party in Poland could not hold sole power - or any power in the end as it had no public support. Democracy and freedom in Poland started a true domino effect. The Communist party ruling east Germany could not hold on as both that statement quoted above showed that the Soviet Union would not fight to keep it in power and the existence of a democratic Poland further was a physical roadblock for Soviet military pressure on Germany.
A future book of the week (once I finish it) references a statement by Toqueville that for a totalitarian order, the moment of maximum danger is when they initiate the reform process. That proved true for the Leninist regime in the Soviet Union and its satellites in eastern Europe. The entire edifice was rotten and without constant effort, it would collapse. Gorbachev stopped trying to hold it together at all costs. Poland led the wave of freedom culminating the fall of the Berlin wall.
That's quite an interesting twist, no ? East German freedom owed to Polish (peaceful) freedom fighters.
Book of the Week
God's Playground - A History of Poland, volume II 1795 to present, by Norman Davies. Look at a map of all of Europe. The western nations with which most Americans are familiar represent about 1/2 of Europe. How can anyone understand Europe and its future prospects without understanding a LOT more about the eastern half ? This book helps tremendously. Very well researched and written, Davies thoroughly covers the Polish people, culture and nation-building as Poland arose like a phoenix after being swallowed by the 18th century empires of Russia, Prussia and Austria, and then later was reborn again after the immense cruelties of Hitler and Stalin jointly threatened to exterminate the Polish people.
This book helps one understand the cold war better, too. Western press reports - I remember the gist of them - completely misunderstood the nature of the postwar regime in Poland. It was a classic case of "Some A and Some B". Some A - decent men and women in the communist party and outside it trying to do whatever could work in Poland to help it recover from World War II and improve the lives of the people, and Some B - picked officials really working together with the Soviet security forces and the Soviet communist party to rule Poland as a fief for themselves. The "left" in the US saw all "A". The right saw all "B". Both were wrong.
Overall, this book is immensely valuable for its content and evenhanded treatment the history of Poland. By the way, Volume I is also excellent, covering Polish history up to 1795.
Actions
I am doing nothing. I have a large position of S&P 500 December call options and am riding this bull elephant to the next water hole. News of reasonable economic growth continues to occur and that slowly asphyxiates the remaining bears while adding to new bulls. The market can rise as that process goes on -until the bears are gone and the pool of new bulls is used up. Until then, sitting and riding one's longs is best.
Word of the Day
"Pullulate" - verb, intransitive [$10]; used by U. S. Grant in his memoirs, page 420.
Pullulate means 1. (of a seed, shoot, etc.) bud, sprout, germinate; 2. (esp. of an animal) swarm, throng, breed prolifically; 3. develop, spring up, come to life; 4. (followed by 'with') abound.
Sentence: Freedom pullulates everywhere once the chains are weakened. Recent in Iran prove this. The Iranian people want freedom, but so far, the theocrats want to retain power and are willing to kill with abandon to retain it.
Friday, November 6, 2009
The Spectrum of Politics and Government
In common writings this spectrum is the line from the far left to the far right - the "Standard Model" of politics. In that paradigm, those two styles are purported opposites. How this mode of analysis and concomitant metaphor and metonymy* arose, I don't know. But it's so obviously completely wrong that everyone needs to stop using it. [*Word of the Day]
Why ?
The systems characterized as far left are truly EQUAL to those of the far right in substance and ideology. Here is a list of qualities for which communism has in common with naziism taken from God's Playground: A History of Poland, Volume II 1795 to present, page 476. [Poland and the Polish people suffered from occupation by both totalitarian systems.]
A national-socialist ideology
collectivism
pseudo-science
utopian goals
a dualist party-state
a Füherprinzip (leader principle)
gangsterism
bureaucratic elephantitis
propaganda
the Aesthetics of Power
the Dialectical Enemy
moral nihilism
the psychology of hatred
pre-emptive censorship
coercion
universalism
contempt for liberal democracy
"The petit bourgeois Social Democrat and trade union boss will never make a good National Socialist, but the Communist will" [Adolf Hitler as cited in "The True Believer" by Eric Hoffer, page 17]. Hannah Arendt provided very detailed ideological analysis of those identity. Alan Bullock's several history books about Hitler and Stalin provide plenty of details to support the identity of naziism and communism practice.
The "Standard Model" of the modern press and pundits is wrong.
What works for the classification of governments and political systems and thinking ?
One can use the same simple line, but place pure libertarianism on one side and pure totalitarianism on the other. Pure human freedom versus pure non-freedom. Pure individual choice versus pure control by one man/party. A free person versus a slave. That works. A system them is evaluated by where it is on that line on many attributes such as economics, elections, movement of peoples, etc.
Actions
Today I await the jobs number and the market's reaction to it. My S&P call options speculation anticipates an improved number. The market seems to have built some of that in already, but if a truly good number comes, my S&P year-end target of 1200 comes into play. Tactically, I'll sell a big rip looking to re-buy on the correction. If I'm wrong, I'll probably just bail out.
Word of the Day
"Metonymy" - noun [$10]
Metonymy means the substitution of a name of an attribute or adjunct for that of the thing meant. [e. g., Crown for King, White House for US executive authority]. Alternate definition: a figure of speech in which an attribute or commonly associated feature is used to name or designate somethings, as in 'the pen is mightier than the sword'.
Sentence: Writing has to use metonymy to be succinct and colorful and playful; why use "the radical environmental movement" when "greenies" conveys the message better.
Why ?
The systems characterized as far left are truly EQUAL to those of the far right in substance and ideology. Here is a list of qualities for which communism has in common with naziism taken from God's Playground: A History of Poland, Volume II 1795 to present, page 476. [Poland and the Polish people suffered from occupation by both totalitarian systems.]
A national-socialist ideology
collectivism
pseudo-science
utopian goals
a dualist party-state
a Füherprinzip (leader principle)
gangsterism
bureaucratic elephantitis
propaganda
the Aesthetics of Power
the Dialectical Enemy
moral nihilism
the psychology of hatred
pre-emptive censorship
coercion
universalism
contempt for liberal democracy
"The petit bourgeois Social Democrat and trade union boss will never make a good National Socialist, but the Communist will" [Adolf Hitler as cited in "The True Believer" by Eric Hoffer, page 17]. Hannah Arendt provided very detailed ideological analysis of those identity. Alan Bullock's several history books about Hitler and Stalin provide plenty of details to support the identity of naziism and communism practice.
The "Standard Model" of the modern press and pundits is wrong.
What works for the classification of governments and political systems and thinking ?
One can use the same simple line, but place pure libertarianism on one side and pure totalitarianism on the other. Pure human freedom versus pure non-freedom. Pure individual choice versus pure control by one man/party. A free person versus a slave. That works. A system them is evaluated by where it is on that line on many attributes such as economics, elections, movement of peoples, etc.
Actions
Today I await the jobs number and the market's reaction to it. My S&P call options speculation anticipates an improved number. The market seems to have built some of that in already, but if a truly good number comes, my S&P year-end target of 1200 comes into play. Tactically, I'll sell a big rip looking to re-buy on the correction. If I'm wrong, I'll probably just bail out.
Word of the Day
"Metonymy" - noun [$10]
Metonymy means the substitution of a name of an attribute or adjunct for that of the thing meant. [e. g., Crown for King, White House for US executive authority]. Alternate definition: a figure of speech in which an attribute or commonly associated feature is used to name or designate somethings, as in 'the pen is mightier than the sword'.
Sentence: Writing has to use metonymy to be succinct and colorful and playful; why use "the radical environmental movement" when "greenies" conveys the message better.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Betrayers of Revolutions
For around 400 years the world has seen many revolutions by and in the name of "the people". Some worked, some did not. Some were disasters. Some were colossal successes.
What determines success and failure ? Sometimes ingerence* - interference from foreign neighbors - causes a collapse. [*Word of the Day] Such was the cause of the failure of the 1791 revolution in Poland led by Tadeusz Kościuszko , which was crushed by armies of Russia and Prussia.
The quality of the leaders - usually a singular leader in both senses of the word "singular" - determines if the revolution will evolve into a positive state of government, or devolve into a tyranny. And for revolutions in current times, how do we decide what is happening ? Our information is usually very, very fragmented and imperfect.
One crucial factor seems to be a necessary condition for success, and a sufficient condition for failure. Will the leader permit a peaceful transfer of power, or will he resort to any means to hold on to power ? The answer to that single question seems to link historical failures to each other and obversely to link successful revolutions also.
Here are some examples of success and failure.
Cromwell - he never again held free elections in England after taking power, becoming an unpopular tyrant. His puritanical revolution died when he died and the issues of power in England had to be re-fought (peacefully) in 1689 in the "Glorious Revolution".
Washington - he resigned his command after winning the Revolutionary war and caustically rejected calls for his kingship. Recalled to power eight years later, after two terms as President he then refused to run for a third term, relinquishing power peacefully again. The American revolution went on to succeed for hundreds of years.
Lenin - His Bolshevik party resorted to a killing spree in 1919-1922 rather than share power with other social revolutionary parties. That is documented in historical records and numerous first hand accounts by truly dedicated revolutionaries such as the books by Emma Goldman and Angelica Balabanova. The Communist revolution in Russia became the killing ground for Stalin and the eventual oppressor of eastern Europe for 45 years.
Hitler - that sordid tale is well known. After taking power in 1933, no free election was held in Germany until the Nazi regime was crushed in World War II.
Castro - After seizing power in the 1959 revolution, no free election was ever held. Castro's own sister has documented in a recent book how he began to imprison and kill any opposition leader, no matter how moderate, so that he could retain power.
De Gaulle - after being President, commander in chief and then Prime Minister of France during and after World War II, he left power peacefully in 1946 when political conflict rose. Later in 1958, he led a restructuring the the French government to create the Fifth Republic and became its President. He led strongly, but did not create a party to hold power regardless of opposition. He left office peacefully in 1969. France is a strong nation today, one of the leaders in Europe.
Wałęsa - After leading the "Solidarity" revolution to victory in 1990 and being elected to the Presidency of Poland, he did not try to consolidate power into a dictatorship. He was defeated in the 1995 election and left power peacefully. He is still active in Polish politics. Poland is a political and economic success story in Europe.
The answer: A revolution succeeds when the leader is not blinded by fanatical desire for power. A revolution fails when it is betrayed by its own leader whose lust for power consumes all reason. That is the acid test of a revolution. Revolutions are betrayed by their leader.
What about now ? How do some current leaders shape up on this standard ?
Post-communist Russia - Yeltsin and Gorbachev both left power peacefully. Putin is questionable, as he installed a crony, Medvedev, into the Presidency. However, he did not change the constitution to permit another term for himself - that does show a "bit" of self-restraint. Unclear for now -very risky position.
Venezuela - this is easy - Chavez has changed innumerable rules to retain power. He's evolving into, or is, a tyrant.
Honduras - easy, Zelaya wanted to change the constitution to retain power. He was a potential tyrant, stopped for now by the Supreme Court of Honduras, its Congress and loyal military. Obama and Hillary are ignorantly on the wrong side of this controversy.
Red China - easy, the Communist Party permits no political opposition. It's an oppressive military dictatorship. Whether it returns to its past Maoist butchery is unknown. Red China could easily revert to the darkest side again.
Iran - another betrayal as the current clique of mullahs cling to power using any means. The recent oppression of electoral protests proves Iran is a oppressive dictatorship.
______________________________________________________
Actions
I bought more S&P Dec. call options yesterday on a couple of dips in the post Fed volatility. I have 3/4 of my planned position. This is a risky play on an improved jobs number being reported Friday that could lead to an new leg up in the market. I could lose 50% of the speculation if wrong or make 300% if right.
Word of the Day
"Ingerence" - noun [$1000]; and "Ingere" - verb, obsolete, rare.
Ingerence means bearing in upon, intrusive; interference. Often used in diplomatic of affairs of nations.
Ingere means to carry in, put or push in, obtrude; (reflexive) to thrust oneself in, to obtrude oneself, to intrude, to presume.
Sentence: (I) see * above in the second paragraph of this post. (II) Why does the US government seem compelled to ingere itself into the business of almost every nation on Earth ? The US is neither the world's policeman nor its nanny. Let's leave them alone.
What determines success and failure ? Sometimes ingerence* - interference from foreign neighbors - causes a collapse. [*Word of the Day] Such was the cause of the failure of the 1791 revolution in Poland led by Tadeusz Kościuszko , which was crushed by armies of Russia and Prussia.
The quality of the leaders - usually a singular leader in both senses of the word "singular" - determines if the revolution will evolve into a positive state of government, or devolve into a tyranny. And for revolutions in current times, how do we decide what is happening ? Our information is usually very, very fragmented and imperfect.
One crucial factor seems to be a necessary condition for success, and a sufficient condition for failure. Will the leader permit a peaceful transfer of power, or will he resort to any means to hold on to power ? The answer to that single question seems to link historical failures to each other and obversely to link successful revolutions also.
Here are some examples of success and failure.
Cromwell - he never again held free elections in England after taking power, becoming an unpopular tyrant. His puritanical revolution died when he died and the issues of power in England had to be re-fought (peacefully) in 1689 in the "Glorious Revolution".
Washington - he resigned his command after winning the Revolutionary war and caustically rejected calls for his kingship. Recalled to power eight years later, after two terms as President he then refused to run for a third term, relinquishing power peacefully again. The American revolution went on to succeed for hundreds of years.
Lenin - His Bolshevik party resorted to a killing spree in 1919-1922 rather than share power with other social revolutionary parties. That is documented in historical records and numerous first hand accounts by truly dedicated revolutionaries such as the books by Emma Goldman and Angelica Balabanova. The Communist revolution in Russia became the killing ground for Stalin and the eventual oppressor of eastern Europe for 45 years.
Hitler - that sordid tale is well known. After taking power in 1933, no free election was held in Germany until the Nazi regime was crushed in World War II.
Castro - After seizing power in the 1959 revolution, no free election was ever held. Castro's own sister has documented in a recent book how he began to imprison and kill any opposition leader, no matter how moderate, so that he could retain power.
De Gaulle - after being President, commander in chief and then Prime Minister of France during and after World War II, he left power peacefully in 1946 when political conflict rose. Later in 1958, he led a restructuring the the French government to create the Fifth Republic and became its President. He led strongly, but did not create a party to hold power regardless of opposition. He left office peacefully in 1969. France is a strong nation today, one of the leaders in Europe.
Wałęsa - After leading the "Solidarity" revolution to victory in 1990 and being elected to the Presidency of Poland, he did not try to consolidate power into a dictatorship. He was defeated in the 1995 election and left power peacefully. He is still active in Polish politics. Poland is a political and economic success story in Europe.
The answer: A revolution succeeds when the leader is not blinded by fanatical desire for power. A revolution fails when it is betrayed by its own leader whose lust for power consumes all reason. That is the acid test of a revolution. Revolutions are betrayed by their leader.
What about now ? How do some current leaders shape up on this standard ?
Post-communist Russia - Yeltsin and Gorbachev both left power peacefully. Putin is questionable, as he installed a crony, Medvedev, into the Presidency. However, he did not change the constitution to permit another term for himself - that does show a "bit" of self-restraint. Unclear for now -very risky position.
Venezuela - this is easy - Chavez has changed innumerable rules to retain power. He's evolving into, or is, a tyrant.
Honduras - easy, Zelaya wanted to change the constitution to retain power. He was a potential tyrant, stopped for now by the Supreme Court of Honduras, its Congress and loyal military. Obama and Hillary are ignorantly on the wrong side of this controversy.
Red China - easy, the Communist Party permits no political opposition. It's an oppressive military dictatorship. Whether it returns to its past Maoist butchery is unknown. Red China could easily revert to the darkest side again.
Iran - another betrayal as the current clique of mullahs cling to power using any means. The recent oppression of electoral protests proves Iran is a oppressive dictatorship.
______________________________________________________
Actions
I bought more S&P Dec. call options yesterday on a couple of dips in the post Fed volatility. I have 3/4 of my planned position. This is a risky play on an improved jobs number being reported Friday that could lead to an new leg up in the market. I could lose 50% of the speculation if wrong or make 300% if right.
Word of the Day
"Ingerence" - noun [$1000]; and "Ingere" - verb, obsolete, rare.
Ingerence means bearing in upon, intrusive; interference. Often used in diplomatic of affairs of nations.
Ingere means to carry in, put or push in, obtrude; (reflexive) to thrust oneself in, to obtrude oneself, to intrude, to presume.
Sentence: (I) see * above in the second paragraph of this post. (II) Why does the US government seem compelled to ingere itself into the business of almost every nation on Earth ? The US is neither the world's policeman nor its nanny. Let's leave them alone.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Hare-brained Schemes
For the title today. I'm borrowing an old pejorative label on some development ideas of Nikita Khrushchev that were colossal flops in the old Soviet Union. This label fits perfectly the endless stream of "ideas" the Greenies put forth as "solutions" for alternative energy. Here's the recent list:
Solar - uh, what do you do at night for energy ? Or in the long, cloudy winters ? The fundamental physics imposes huge limits, too.
Wind - what do you do when the wind doesn't blow ? The landscape is spoiled, birds massacred and the economics don't work, either.
Hydrogen - that was W's big "idea". But where do you get the hydrogen ? Of course, there are no hydrogen mines, as this element is not found in any significant quantities in its molecular state on earth.
Switch Grass - that is, cellulosic ethanol. No viable plant or process exists to produce ethanol from switch grass (which is a fast growing grass). And you have the problem of land: whose land gets taken for production of huge quantities.
Now we have "carbon sequestration". The green crackpots now want to pump carbon dioxide deep into the earth to "store" it. So energy comes from coal, and somehow the carbon dioxide is captured and pumped into storage places deep underground.
Of course, the carbon dioxide is emitted widely and not in the places that it would be stored. How do you get it there ? And how do you capture it, anyway ? Separate that gas from all the other smoke from the smokestacks of industry.
And how is that gas kept deep underground ? I remember reading of an accident where it escaped and flooded a community, killing many people by asphyxiation. And even if is doesn't escape catastrophically, what if in a hundred years, the gas begins to seep out ? Then instead of stopping its increase abundance in the atmosphere, the world will have a double problem.
The greenies refuse to consider burying a SOLID GLASS BLOCK containing nuclear waste underground in dry caverns. Now they propose pumping huge quantities of a GAS underground and say it's safe ? What thumping tosh !
These are really all part of a "bait & switch" by the greenie ideologists, who will always find flaws just before any scheme begins to go into practice. They really want to forceably revert mankind to the medieval village standard of life and be the lords of the manor over all of us serfs, approving anything we do.
Solution: Chuck the greenies over. Build nuclear power and use more natural gas to replace imported oil. Use coal.
Humans don't cause global warming anyway. That computer-based theory doesn't fit the facts at all in any detail. It's just garbage-in, garbage-out. They can make those models dance to almost any tune they wish, but can't even get an intermediate term temperature downturn right with all the data current.
Actions
As the market firmed yesterday on news of Warren Buffet's purchase of Burlington Northern railroad, I started looking for buys. A commentor reminded me of the old Obama Fund stock, CX, which I purchased as it has good profit potential for a speculation. I also started a position in December call options on the S&P 500. I bought 1/4 of my planned size that will put me back at 300% long effectively. Often the market is volatile around a Fed day, so I'm waiting to buy more. This is a play on a rally after the jobs number Friday, which I expect to show some improvement.
Word of the Day
"Trope" - noun [$10]
Trope means a figurative (e. g. metaphorical or ironical) use of a word.
Sentence: This blog commonly uses the trope of "hogs" to refer to highly paid CEOs and other in the executive suite. It fits rather well, and is quite visual, and aural, too.
Solar - uh, what do you do at night for energy ? Or in the long, cloudy winters ? The fundamental physics imposes huge limits, too.
Wind - what do you do when the wind doesn't blow ? The landscape is spoiled, birds massacred and the economics don't work, either.
Hydrogen - that was W's big "idea". But where do you get the hydrogen ? Of course, there are no hydrogen mines, as this element is not found in any significant quantities in its molecular state on earth.
Switch Grass - that is, cellulosic ethanol. No viable plant or process exists to produce ethanol from switch grass (which is a fast growing grass). And you have the problem of land: whose land gets taken for production of huge quantities.
Now we have "carbon sequestration". The green crackpots now want to pump carbon dioxide deep into the earth to "store" it. So energy comes from coal, and somehow the carbon dioxide is captured and pumped into storage places deep underground.
Of course, the carbon dioxide is emitted widely and not in the places that it would be stored. How do you get it there ? And how do you capture it, anyway ? Separate that gas from all the other smoke from the smokestacks of industry.
And how is that gas kept deep underground ? I remember reading of an accident where it escaped and flooded a community, killing many people by asphyxiation. And even if is doesn't escape catastrophically, what if in a hundred years, the gas begins to seep out ? Then instead of stopping its increase abundance in the atmosphere, the world will have a double problem.
The greenies refuse to consider burying a SOLID GLASS BLOCK containing nuclear waste underground in dry caverns. Now they propose pumping huge quantities of a GAS underground and say it's safe ? What thumping tosh !
These are really all part of a "bait & switch" by the greenie ideologists, who will always find flaws just before any scheme begins to go into practice. They really want to forceably revert mankind to the medieval village standard of life and be the lords of the manor over all of us serfs, approving anything we do.
Solution: Chuck the greenies over. Build nuclear power and use more natural gas to replace imported oil. Use coal.
Humans don't cause global warming anyway. That computer-based theory doesn't fit the facts at all in any detail. It's just garbage-in, garbage-out. They can make those models dance to almost any tune they wish, but can't even get an intermediate term temperature downturn right with all the data current.
Actions
As the market firmed yesterday on news of Warren Buffet's purchase of Burlington Northern railroad, I started looking for buys. A commentor reminded me of the old Obama Fund stock, CX, which I purchased as it has good profit potential for a speculation. I also started a position in December call options on the S&P 500. I bought 1/4 of my planned size that will put me back at 300% long effectively. Often the market is volatile around a Fed day, so I'm waiting to buy more. This is a play on a rally after the jobs number Friday, which I expect to show some improvement.
Word of the Day
"Trope" - noun [$10]
Trope means a figurative (e. g. metaphorical or ironical) use of a word.
Sentence: This blog commonly uses the trope of "hogs" to refer to highly paid CEOs and other in the executive suite. It fits rather well, and is quite visual, and aural, too.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
More on the Hogs at the trough
Long ago the tipping point between any sense of fairness or market forces versus sheer greed in the CEO club was passed and executives stuck their snouts deeply into the hog trough. Today's WSJ online has another example.
"Pensions for top executives rose an average of 19% in 2008, with more than 200 executives seeing pensions increase more than 50%, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. The executive-pension growth stemmed partly from generous pension formulas, which are based on executive pay, according to the filings. Also adding to the pension jumps are arcane techniques that have received little scrutiny ... "
"The growth of such supplemental executive retirement plans, or SERPs -- which can be worth tens of millions of dollars to executives -- largely has been overlooked amid a backlash against executive pay, particularly at banks and other companies receiving taxpayer bailouts. "
The article is full of examples of CEOs getting double digit million pensions. But anyone with a memory remembers that for the last decade, corporations have cut employee pensions and reduced sharing formulae and pushed them into 401K plans. Why isn't all the deferred compensation in stock considered as the CEOs pension ? Why do those favored princes and dukes get a double dip ? The answer is, of course, the CEO club protects its own and they aid and abet each other's feast in the trough. The paid "consultants" give the CEOs cover to deceive the stockholders, who often get no vote at all, thanks to the SEC.
Corporations grossly overpay the executive suite. And likely underpay the common man. Those who make the rules - the ruling classes of the rich and powerful - have gone too far and the tide needs to go out on executive pay.
This endless greed and unrepentant looting of the corporate treasury by the hogs at the top has to somehow end.
Actions
Despite rather good economic news worldwide, markets seem to be correcting. Perhaps those who anticipated this good news took or are taking profits [as I did do, in fact . Or the bears are getting bolder and increasing their positions. And insufficient real, long term buyers exist to cushion the decline now. Most likely, it's all three as recent post titled "How the World Works"emphasized: 'some A and some B' is the general philosophical reality of the workings of the world.
My tactics are unchanged. I an doing nothing, but am thinking about stocks to buy when the selling dries up.
World Series
Back to the Bronx as the Phillies hang on. Yankees lead, 3 to 2. Go Yankees !!!!!!!!!! Smash those Phillies !!!
Word of the Day
"Eremite" - noun [$10] a Mencken word
Eremite means a hermit or recluse (especially Christian).
Sentence: [from "The American Language" by H. L. Mencken, page 557] "Everyone, including even the metaphysician in his study and the eremite in his cell, has a large vocabulary of slang ..."
"Pensions for top executives rose an average of 19% in 2008, with more than 200 executives seeing pensions increase more than 50%, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. The executive-pension growth stemmed partly from generous pension formulas, which are based on executive pay, according to the filings. Also adding to the pension jumps are arcane techniques that have received little scrutiny ... "
"The growth of such supplemental executive retirement plans, or SERPs -- which can be worth tens of millions of dollars to executives -- largely has been overlooked amid a backlash against executive pay, particularly at banks and other companies receiving taxpayer bailouts. "
The article is full of examples of CEOs getting double digit million pensions. But anyone with a memory remembers that for the last decade, corporations have cut employee pensions and reduced sharing formulae and pushed them into 401K plans. Why isn't all the deferred compensation in stock considered as the CEOs pension ? Why do those favored princes and dukes get a double dip ? The answer is, of course, the CEO club protects its own and they aid and abet each other's feast in the trough. The paid "consultants" give the CEOs cover to deceive the stockholders, who often get no vote at all, thanks to the SEC.
Corporations grossly overpay the executive suite. And likely underpay the common man. Those who make the rules - the ruling classes of the rich and powerful - have gone too far and the tide needs to go out on executive pay.
This endless greed and unrepentant looting of the corporate treasury by the hogs at the top has to somehow end.
Actions
Despite rather good economic news worldwide, markets seem to be correcting. Perhaps those who anticipated this good news took or are taking profits [as I did do, in fact . Or the bears are getting bolder and increasing their positions. And insufficient real, long term buyers exist to cushion the decline now. Most likely, it's all three as recent post titled "How the World Works"emphasized: 'some A and some B' is the general philosophical reality of the workings of the world.
My tactics are unchanged. I an doing nothing, but am thinking about stocks to buy when the selling dries up.
World Series
Back to the Bronx as the Phillies hang on. Yankees lead, 3 to 2. Go Yankees !!!!!!!!!! Smash those Phillies !!!
Word of the Day
"Eremite" - noun [$10] a Mencken word
Eremite means a hermit or recluse (especially Christian).
Sentence: [from "The American Language" by H. L. Mencken, page 557] "Everyone, including even the metaphysician in his study and the eremite in his cell, has a large vocabulary of slang ..."
Monday, November 2, 2009
A Nice Price
Price does matter in buying stocks for speculations. I want to make 50 to 100% profits on speculative capital. If I overpay for a stock, I would need a peculiarly unlikely correlation of good news and the support of momentum buyers to make a big profit. But if I buy at "a nice price", I can get my payoff with just one of those two principle boosters for a big price move.
Lately I've chosen sectors that I thing might benefit from good news that I anticipate. Then I survey the charts of stocks in those sectors to see which might be able to double on good news. How do I do that ? Easy, I just look at where the prior "normal" price level was in 2006 or 2007 before the Panic of 2008. If the economy does return to normal conditions and growth, a rapid return to those profits levels, and hence stock price, can occur or at least come close enough.
If I can't find good sectors or stocks that might double, I sometimes will shift tactics and find higher quality stocks that might go up 20%. Then I'll buy call options - usually one strike in the money and a few months of durations. Sometimes I ladder them with a few, cheaper, out of the money calls. Those can go up 50 - 100% IF my news comes through. Sometimes they go up in anticipation of the news, as occurred in September and early October. Whatever, take the sugar when it reaches your plate. Don't be a greedy pig.
If I have been a pig, I would have made next to nothing on my call options play of mid September, instead of the roughly 75% average profits that I did book.
Books of the Week
The title of today's blog is from a story in "The Bloodhounds of Broadway and other Stories by Damon Runyon". There's a companion volume, too, titled "Romance in the Roaring Forties and Other Stories by Damon Runyon". These particular collections were published in 1981 and 1986, respectively. If you've ever watched and enjoyed that great movie, "Guys and Dolls", you might appreciate that its characters and some of the plot comes from Damon Runyon stories that millions enjoyed in his newspaper columns for decades.
Runyon wrote about gamblers in New York City and their culture, using their colorful nicknames, attitudes and vocabulary and style of speech. "Guys and Dolls" borrows from "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown" which is contained in the second volume mentioned. "She is tall and thin, and has a first class shape, and her hair is light brown, going on blonde, and her eyes are like I do not know what except they are on-hundred-per-cent eyes in every respect." The "rolling for souls" ending of the story occurs in a slightly different manner than the movie, by the way.
The title of today's post is the title of story in the first volume. It's about gamblers and how they love to get "the right price", viz., odds. Specifically, they are excited about a rich Yale alumnus offering 3 to 1 odds on a rowing race with "the Harvards" as they say. Professional gambler, "Sam the Gonoph" says, "I do not know anything about boat races, and the Yalies may figure as you say, but nothing between human beings is 1 to 3. In fact, I long ago come to the conclusion that all life is 6 to 5 against." So they plunk down many G notes [$1,000 bills - yes, those existed in circulation then !] not because they like Harvard, but because "it's a nice price". The story ends spectacularly with quite a fine twist.
I recommend these books for very, very enjoyable reading. You might have to look in used book sites such as www. alibris.com or the used book offerings on Amazon.com to find them. I just looked and saw some offerings of these and other collections of Damon Runyon stories. By the way, I bought my copies in Penn Station in New York City in the 1980s when I worked on the "Street". There was a great little book store there that offered many eclectic books for riders of the Long Island Rail Road. Sigh .. it's gone now, of course.
Word of the Day
"Prosody" - noun [$10]
Prosody means 1. the theory and practice of versification; the laws of meter; 2. the study of speech rhythm.
Sentence: To understand and analyze a poem, one must consider prosody as well as simple rhymes and the meaning of the words and metaphors used. Bluntly, there's a reason why poems are written in verse.
Lately I've chosen sectors that I thing might benefit from good news that I anticipate. Then I survey the charts of stocks in those sectors to see which might be able to double on good news. How do I do that ? Easy, I just look at where the prior "normal" price level was in 2006 or 2007 before the Panic of 2008. If the economy does return to normal conditions and growth, a rapid return to those profits levels, and hence stock price, can occur or at least come close enough.
If I can't find good sectors or stocks that might double, I sometimes will shift tactics and find higher quality stocks that might go up 20%. Then I'll buy call options - usually one strike in the money and a few months of durations. Sometimes I ladder them with a few, cheaper, out of the money calls. Those can go up 50 - 100% IF my news comes through. Sometimes they go up in anticipation of the news, as occurred in September and early October. Whatever, take the sugar when it reaches your plate. Don't be a greedy pig.
If I have been a pig, I would have made next to nothing on my call options play of mid September, instead of the roughly 75% average profits that I did book.
Books of the Week
The title of today's blog is from a story in "The Bloodhounds of Broadway and other Stories by Damon Runyon". There's a companion volume, too, titled "Romance in the Roaring Forties and Other Stories by Damon Runyon". These particular collections were published in 1981 and 1986, respectively. If you've ever watched and enjoyed that great movie, "Guys and Dolls", you might appreciate that its characters and some of the plot comes from Damon Runyon stories that millions enjoyed in his newspaper columns for decades.
Runyon wrote about gamblers in New York City and their culture, using their colorful nicknames, attitudes and vocabulary and style of speech. "Guys and Dolls" borrows from "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown" which is contained in the second volume mentioned. "She is tall and thin, and has a first class shape, and her hair is light brown, going on blonde, and her eyes are like I do not know what except they are on-hundred-per-cent eyes in every respect." The "rolling for souls" ending of the story occurs in a slightly different manner than the movie, by the way.
The title of today's post is the title of story in the first volume. It's about gamblers and how they love to get "the right price", viz., odds. Specifically, they are excited about a rich Yale alumnus offering 3 to 1 odds on a rowing race with "the Harvards" as they say. Professional gambler, "Sam the Gonoph" says, "I do not know anything about boat races, and the Yalies may figure as you say, but nothing between human beings is 1 to 3. In fact, I long ago come to the conclusion that all life is 6 to 5 against." So they plunk down many G notes [$1,000 bills - yes, those existed in circulation then !] not because they like Harvard, but because "it's a nice price". The story ends spectacularly with quite a fine twist.
I recommend these books for very, very enjoyable reading. You might have to look in used book sites such as www. alibris.com or the used book offerings on Amazon.com to find them. I just looked and saw some offerings of these and other collections of Damon Runyon stories. By the way, I bought my copies in Penn Station in New York City in the 1980s when I worked on the "Street". There was a great little book store there that offered many eclectic books for riders of the Long Island Rail Road. Sigh .. it's gone now, of course.
Word of the Day
"Prosody" - noun [$10]
Prosody means 1. the theory and practice of versification; the laws of meter; 2. the study of speech rhythm.
Sentence: To understand and analyze a poem, one must consider prosody as well as simple rhymes and the meaning of the words and metaphors used. Bluntly, there's a reason why poems are written in verse.
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