Let Greece default. Why should that affect the Euro? If Alabama defaulted, the dollar would not be affected one iota.
More research with hard data is crushing the global warming propaganda machine. Here's another link with more proof ->
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/09/serbian-evidence-for-cosmoclimatology.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+LuboMotlsReferenceFrame+%28Lubos+Motl%27s+reference+frame%29
As the authors are Serbian, they cannot be blackmailed by Al Gore's evil minions.
To reiterate: major global temperature changes over decadal and century time periods are caused by changes in cloud cover, whihc are caused by cosmis ray flux changes, which are casued by soalr wind changes, whaic are caused by solar activity changes. Every link in this chian is backed by hard science and known physical processes, and is further backed by spectacularly significant correlation observations of solar activity measurements with global temperature. Man is insignificant; carbon dioxide levels in the atmospere is an effect, not a cause.
The global warming scaremonger "scientists" are like patent medicine hawkers, telling a gullible public scare stories to get grant money.
To repeat, check out the Autobiography of Theodore Roosevelt. I just read the section on his observations on how corruption worked in the New York Assembly in the late 19th century. The methods seem to be in use now. One technique is a form of blackmail: introduce a law that might harm some corporations, then collect lobbying donations to stop it. Has anything changed?
If you have private businesses, remember to pay your estimated taxes by September 15 (Thursday).
Some big cap stocks are getting intriguingly low priced. As your writer is outside the prime spending years [24-55], dividends matter a lot. I am looking for more solid stocks paying over 3% with reasonable prospects of future increases.
Word of the Day
"Fardel" - noun [$100] archaic; used in the Hamlet's soliloquy.
Fardel means a bundle, a burden.
Sentence: The common man and woman bear fardels working in the fields and factories, while the hogs at the trough in the Dark City slurp the feed.
Showing posts with label books. Show all posts
Showing posts with label books. Show all posts
Monday, September 12, 2011
Monday, July 11, 2011
A Book
Grant and Sherman: The Friendship that Won the Civil War. Charles Bracelen Flood ISBN-13 978-0-06-114871-2
This excellent book provides much insight to the crucial leadership of the Northern armies and navies that led to their victory. Far too much attention in Civil War history goes to the early years of the northern Virginia sector and Lee's success in holding off the North. The war was won, however, by Grant & Sherman and the western armies and the navy.
By covering the correspondence of Grant & Sherman and their early campaigns, this book illuminates crucial insights they had and how their knowledge developed. One factor that is much underappreciated is Grant's use of the riverine Navy. This resource let him move a hundred or more miles quickly with more supplies than any land movement could make. Of all Civil war generals, Grant made the most effective use of the river Navy. He developed good working relationships with key naval commanders and was fortunate in their quality and aggressiveness. The river Navy was Grant's special weapon and he used it well.
So far I am about 1/2 through the book and am enjoying it very much. Give it a try!
Word of the Day
"Naiad" - noun [$10] (pl. naiads or -des)
Naiad means (Mythol.) a water nymph; the larvae of a dragonfly, etc.; 3. any aquatic plant of the genus Najas with narrow leaves and small flowers.
Sentence: I wonder if the Epicurean canoeists will meet any naiads on our sojourn in the Canadian lakes? Probably not. But I'll hear again about the time Big Al, etc. ran across a campsite of French models frolicking in the water :)
This excellent book provides much insight to the crucial leadership of the Northern armies and navies that led to their victory. Far too much attention in Civil War history goes to the early years of the northern Virginia sector and Lee's success in holding off the North. The war was won, however, by Grant & Sherman and the western armies and the navy.
By covering the correspondence of Grant & Sherman and their early campaigns, this book illuminates crucial insights they had and how their knowledge developed. One factor that is much underappreciated is Grant's use of the riverine Navy. This resource let him move a hundred or more miles quickly with more supplies than any land movement could make. Of all Civil war generals, Grant made the most effective use of the river Navy. He developed good working relationships with key naval commanders and was fortunate in their quality and aggressiveness. The river Navy was Grant's special weapon and he used it well.
So far I am about 1/2 through the book and am enjoying it very much. Give it a try!
Word of the Day
"Naiad" - noun [$10] (pl. naiads or -des)
Naiad means (Mythol.) a water nymph; the larvae of a dragonfly, etc.; 3. any aquatic plant of the genus Najas with narrow leaves and small flowers.
Sentence: I wonder if the Epicurean canoeists will meet any naiads on our sojourn in the Canadian lakes? Probably not. But I'll hear again about the time Big Al, etc. ran across a campsite of French models frolicking in the water :)
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Some Good Books
Reading books is one of two ways to learn significant amounts in both quantity and quality. The Internet is very thin gruel - a starvation diet for the brain. Books and lecture courses are the twin pillars of knowledge.
For fine lecture courses in either CD or DVD, see www.teach12.com - I've listened to dozens of their courses on many, many subjects and almost all are excellent.
For books, read good nonfiction. If you prefer fiction (novels, etc.) try to stick to good fiction that has survived the test of time OR good historical fiction.
I find much rather good current nonfiction in reviews in the Financial Times, the London Review of Books, and TLS - The Times Literary Supplement. I suppose the New York Review of Books has good insight into good books, too, but it's a gloppy blob of big truck and double truck ads (1 and 2 page ads) and has an excessive political bent.
Here are two books that I've just finished which are both highly informative and well-researched accounts of important subjects in history.
Making Haste from Babylon: The Mayflower Pilgrims and Their World: A New History, by Nick Bunker. This book does an excellent job describing all aspects of the Pilgrims' settlement at Plymouth in 1620. The author, an Englishman, did a huge amount of research in England, and in the US, and puts the Pilgrim migration in economic, historical and religious context in both sides and connect the Pilgrims to the later much larger migration to settle Boston by the mainstream Puritans. There's so much more to that story than the near mythology we all learned as young people. The huge importance of that settlement and why it succeeded are described in this book with much backup material. The one drawback is that it's a bit too generous with the landscape descriptions.
The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, 1569-1999, by Timothy Snyder. Look on a map of Europe. The region covered by those nations is a huge part of Europe. Yet knowledge of the history of those peoples and nations and how they came about is almost a void in the "west" (aka US, UK and western Europe). This book explains the crucial historical facts and forces which led to the current nation states. And it explains the current trends and some of their problems and policies. I have read many histories of the nations and peoples of central and eastern Europe and I will unequivocally say this book is a crucial part of achieving some kind of unified understanding of that area and peoples - by unified I mean one that is NOT dependent on "western" myths and patterns of thought which do not necessarily apply. If you are interested in understanding ALL of Europe, this book helps immeasurably.
Word of the Day
"Homologue" - noun [$10]; "Homologous" - adjective [$10]
Homologue means a homologous thing.
Homologous means 1.a. having the same relation, relative position, etc.; 1.b. corresponding; 2. (Biology) (of organs, etc.) similar in position, structure, and evolutionary origin but not necessarily in function (opposite of Analogous); 3. (Biology) (of chromosomes) pairing at meiosis and having the same structural features and patterns of genes; 4. (Chemistry) (of a series of chemical compounds) having the same functional groups but differing in composition by a fixed groups of atoms.
Sentence: (WSJ 6/14/2010) "There are no national parties in Belgium - even the Greens, who focus their energy on saving the environment, are split into French and Dutch homologues."
For fine lecture courses in either CD or DVD, see www.teach12.com - I've listened to dozens of their courses on many, many subjects and almost all are excellent.
For books, read good nonfiction. If you prefer fiction (novels, etc.) try to stick to good fiction that has survived the test of time OR good historical fiction.
I find much rather good current nonfiction in reviews in the Financial Times, the London Review of Books, and TLS - The Times Literary Supplement. I suppose the New York Review of Books has good insight into good books, too, but it's a gloppy blob of big truck and double truck ads (1 and 2 page ads) and has an excessive political bent.
Here are two books that I've just finished which are both highly informative and well-researched accounts of important subjects in history.
Making Haste from Babylon: The Mayflower Pilgrims and Their World: A New History, by Nick Bunker. This book does an excellent job describing all aspects of the Pilgrims' settlement at Plymouth in 1620. The author, an Englishman, did a huge amount of research in England, and in the US, and puts the Pilgrim migration in economic, historical and religious context in both sides and connect the Pilgrims to the later much larger migration to settle Boston by the mainstream Puritans. There's so much more to that story than the near mythology we all learned as young people. The huge importance of that settlement and why it succeeded are described in this book with much backup material. The one drawback is that it's a bit too generous with the landscape descriptions.
The Reconstruction of Nations: Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Belarus, 1569-1999, by Timothy Snyder. Look on a map of Europe. The region covered by those nations is a huge part of Europe. Yet knowledge of the history of those peoples and nations and how they came about is almost a void in the "west" (aka US, UK and western Europe). This book explains the crucial historical facts and forces which led to the current nation states. And it explains the current trends and some of their problems and policies. I have read many histories of the nations and peoples of central and eastern Europe and I will unequivocally say this book is a crucial part of achieving some kind of unified understanding of that area and peoples - by unified I mean one that is NOT dependent on "western" myths and patterns of thought which do not necessarily apply. If you are interested in understanding ALL of Europe, this book helps immeasurably.
Word of the Day
"Homologue" - noun [$10]; "Homologous" - adjective [$10]
Homologue means a homologous thing.
Homologous means 1.a. having the same relation, relative position, etc.; 1.b. corresponding; 2. (Biology) (of organs, etc.) similar in position, structure, and evolutionary origin but not necessarily in function (opposite of Analogous); 3. (Biology) (of chromosomes) pairing at meiosis and having the same structural features and patterns of genes; 4. (Chemistry) (of a series of chemical compounds) having the same functional groups but differing in composition by a fixed groups of atoms.
Sentence: (WSJ 6/14/2010) "There are no national parties in Belgium - even the Greens, who focus their energy on saving the environment, are split into French and Dutch homologues."
Monday, April 12, 2010
Monday Meandering
First, I want to express my deepest condolences to all the people of Poland and all Polish people everywhere on Earth for the horrible tragedy of Saturday. To lose so many national leaders in so many fields at once is stunning and terrible. Considering relative sizes, we in the US must multiply the loss by 10 to get an idea what the impact of a similar loss would be. So far Poland is pulling together and mourning as one. And initial clues are that the tragedy might pull Russia and its people out of their old delusions. Putin's recognition of Stalin's guilt at Katyn started that thought a few days before; now the tragedy is forcing people in Russia to recognize Poland's loss both then and now. See this story for more commentary:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/11/poland-tragedy-katyn-russia
Markets
The Greece mess continues. Some in the EU seem to want to do something, but that Union's weak executive and weak powers are preventing acting with deliberation and speed. The markets want to see the money. Why not just let the IMF do it ?
Book of the Week
A new book just out - Braddock's March, by Thomas Crocker - is very good. This book covers that organization for and the actual march by a large army into the wilderness to attempt to drive the French from the area where Pittsburgh now is, to prevent the French from strangling the English colonies with a string of forts. Braddock's army is eventually crushed by the French and Indians. This battle started the French and Indian War which determined the future path of North America.
The book is very well researched, drawing mostly on letters and diaries and other first hand sources of the people involved. The crucial importance of this march and battle arise from several factors: its own significance in the start of the war, that many American leaders of the Revolutionary War got their initial military experience in it, including George Washington, and that this close contact between British officials and Americans started the tensions between Americans and British persons as American began to recognize their freedom would be lessened by more British control.
Word of the Day
"Vincible" - adjective [$10] literary
Vincible means that can be overcome or conquered.
Sentence: The weaknesses shown by the British in their defeat in Braddock's March might has simmered in George Washington's mind and helped him recognize that British military power was vincible in the American environment.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/11/poland-tragedy-katyn-russia
Markets
The Greece mess continues. Some in the EU seem to want to do something, but that Union's weak executive and weak powers are preventing acting with deliberation and speed. The markets want to see the money. Why not just let the IMF do it ?
Book of the Week
A new book just out - Braddock's March, by Thomas Crocker - is very good. This book covers that organization for and the actual march by a large army into the wilderness to attempt to drive the French from the area where Pittsburgh now is, to prevent the French from strangling the English colonies with a string of forts. Braddock's army is eventually crushed by the French and Indians. This battle started the French and Indian War which determined the future path of North America.
The book is very well researched, drawing mostly on letters and diaries and other first hand sources of the people involved. The crucial importance of this march and battle arise from several factors: its own significance in the start of the war, that many American leaders of the Revolutionary War got their initial military experience in it, including George Washington, and that this close contact between British officials and Americans started the tensions between Americans and British persons as American began to recognize their freedom would be lessened by more British control.
Word of the Day
"Vincible" - adjective [$10] literary
Vincible means that can be overcome or conquered.
Sentence: The weaknesses shown by the British in their defeat in Braddock's March might has simmered in George Washington's mind and helped him recognize that British military power was vincible in the American environment.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Into the Belly of the Beast ...
That means I'm going to New York City for a few days - "The Beast" is New York and its belly is Manhattan. The next post wil be Thursday morning.
Not much is going on. I keep hearing that the market rose Friday because the jobs report was "good". That's weird. The number was negative and unemployment was about flat. Oh well, it's probably just boob bait for homo boobus. The press writes headlines and stories that sound like they "should" be true, not that are true.
I think the rally was short covering by a large number of traders who were positioned short expecting a worse jobs number. Without that confirmation to bring in new sellers, they had to cover.
Over the weekend Krypto did her numbers - she pushed the button with her paw - and came up with some sell orders for me. She says I need to sell some emerging market funds, and some gold/silver. I will obey. The money goes to cash.
Book of the Week
Changing Military Patterns of the Great Plains Indians by Frank Raymond Secoy. this short book (a bit over 100 pages) covers Indian tribal warfare from pre-European periods and how it evolved as the horse and gun were introduced. In this process, many Hollywood myths of the Plains Indians get shattered. The book also provides good, hard information on military patterns of other areas, such as the woodlands tribes (Iroquois, etc.). As a dividend, this book provides a good overview of history of the American Indian tribes and conflicts for the great central heartland of the US.
Word of the Day
"Décolletage" - noun [$10]
Décolletage means a low neckline of a woman's dress, etc.
Sentence: Congressmen flock to talk of more money for earmarks as quickly a man's eyes focus on the décolletage of an attractive woman.
Not much is going on. I keep hearing that the market rose Friday because the jobs report was "good". That's weird. The number was negative and unemployment was about flat. Oh well, it's probably just boob bait for homo boobus. The press writes headlines and stories that sound like they "should" be true, not that are true.
I think the rally was short covering by a large number of traders who were positioned short expecting a worse jobs number. Without that confirmation to bring in new sellers, they had to cover.
Over the weekend Krypto did her numbers - she pushed the button with her paw - and came up with some sell orders for me. She says I need to sell some emerging market funds, and some gold/silver. I will obey. The money goes to cash.
Book of the Week
Changing Military Patterns of the Great Plains Indians by Frank Raymond Secoy. this short book (a bit over 100 pages) covers Indian tribal warfare from pre-European periods and how it evolved as the horse and gun were introduced. In this process, many Hollywood myths of the Plains Indians get shattered. The book also provides good, hard information on military patterns of other areas, such as the woodlands tribes (Iroquois, etc.). As a dividend, this book provides a good overview of history of the American Indian tribes and conflicts for the great central heartland of the US.
Word of the Day
"Décolletage" - noun [$10]
Décolletage means a low neckline of a woman's dress, etc.
Sentence: Congressmen flock to talk of more money for earmarks as quickly a man's eyes focus on the décolletage of an attractive woman.
Friday, March 5, 2010
TGIF
Business as usual prevails in RC (Racketeer Central = DC). That place is such a den of knaves and fools. The cluster FUBAR of their actions and past actions is building into something unstable. Tax policy is insane; energy policy is insane; foreign relations seem sophomoric. Do any of them take seriously that they are spending the public's money ?
Few.
The people need to exercise their ultimate authority and clean that swamp out. This fall's elections are crucial to avoid a crumbling ... slow or fast ... of US strength constructed since World War II.
This state - Massachusetts - sent a message in electing Scott Brown. He is not perfect, but it's a start. People in other states need to recognize and follow their lead ... as they did in 1775.
Book of the Week
Private Yankee Doodle by Joseph Plumb Martin, originally published in 1830, my copy is a 1995 edition of the 1962 reprinting. The secondary title explains the book's subject matter perfectly: Being a Narrative of some of the Adventures, Dangers and Suffering of a Revolutionary Soldier. This book is a first hand account of the author's experiences in fighting the Revolutionary War as a common soldier. You cannot understand this war unless you understand what the individual soldiers did. Many, many TV historical accounts draw bits and snippets from this book. Read it all yourself and get the full measure of insight from its pages.
Joseph Plumb Martin joined the Continental Army in 1776 and served until discharge in 1783. He was at every major battle that Washington's army fought; he was at Valley Forge; he was at Yorktown. The book gives his narration of what he did and experienced. It hasn't been filtered or drained of life by the ham handed massaging of professional historians. And it's not a polemic. It's a simple account of one man's experiences in the crucible that led to the creation of the United States of America.
Markets
The slow grind high continues. My belief that it is running out of gas is being tested. Futures are perking this morning. Perhaps too many short plays exist and they are slowly capitulating. My April puts give me quite a bit of staying power. For now, unless the news convinces me I'm wrong, I'll let the hand play out over the next few weeks.
I'll check Krypto Fund allocations this AM. The buying that Krypto did at the recent lows might need to be removed. Check for a later "PS".
PS: No changes yet.
Word of the Day
"Dehisce" - verb, intransitive [$10]; "Dehiscence" - noun [$10]
Dehisce means to gape or burst open (esp. of a pos or seed vessel or of a cut or wound).
Dehiscence means the act or an occurrence of dehiscing.
Sentence: Was the Massachusetts election of a political outsider a sign of a nationwide deshiscence of pent-up anger of the people, or just a localized blip ? Time will tell.
Few.
The people need to exercise their ultimate authority and clean that swamp out. This fall's elections are crucial to avoid a crumbling ... slow or fast ... of US strength constructed since World War II.
This state - Massachusetts - sent a message in electing Scott Brown. He is not perfect, but it's a start. People in other states need to recognize and follow their lead ... as they did in 1775.
Book of the Week
Private Yankee Doodle by Joseph Plumb Martin, originally published in 1830, my copy is a 1995 edition of the 1962 reprinting. The secondary title explains the book's subject matter perfectly: Being a Narrative of some of the Adventures, Dangers and Suffering of a Revolutionary Soldier. This book is a first hand account of the author's experiences in fighting the Revolutionary War as a common soldier. You cannot understand this war unless you understand what the individual soldiers did. Many, many TV historical accounts draw bits and snippets from this book. Read it all yourself and get the full measure of insight from its pages.
Joseph Plumb Martin joined the Continental Army in 1776 and served until discharge in 1783. He was at every major battle that Washington's army fought; he was at Valley Forge; he was at Yorktown. The book gives his narration of what he did and experienced. It hasn't been filtered or drained of life by the ham handed massaging of professional historians. And it's not a polemic. It's a simple account of one man's experiences in the crucible that led to the creation of the United States of America.
Markets
The slow grind high continues. My belief that it is running out of gas is being tested. Futures are perking this morning. Perhaps too many short plays exist and they are slowly capitulating. My April puts give me quite a bit of staying power. For now, unless the news convinces me I'm wrong, I'll let the hand play out over the next few weeks.
I'll check Krypto Fund allocations this AM. The buying that Krypto did at the recent lows might need to be removed. Check for a later "PS".
PS: No changes yet.
Word of the Day
"Dehisce" - verb, intransitive [$10]; "Dehiscence" - noun [$10]
Dehisce means to gape or burst open (esp. of a pos or seed vessel or of a cut or wound).
Dehiscence means the act or an occurrence of dehiscing.
Sentence: Was the Massachusetts election of a political outsider a sign of a nationwide deshiscence of pent-up anger of the people, or just a localized blip ? Time will tell.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Celebrate Washington's Birthday !
Today is Washington's birthday and if any person in the United States deserves a celebratory day, it is George Washington. Without his devotion to the nation, his steadfast leadership and his vision, there can be no doubt but that the American Revolution would not have succeeded. And not only that, the Constitution of the United States would not have taken the form that it did, which created a republic that still stands over 200 years later. Not only was the United States the first modern constitutional republic, it still stands. Washington also set precedents as President that still stand. Imagine, when he was inaugurated as President, he alone comprised the executive branch of the nation.
He also showed his devotion to the core philosophy of the United States, "that are men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" arranging for the slaves of himself and his wife to be freed upon the demise of himself and his wife with proper support for their lives, education and retirements. [Legal reasons prevented earlier grants of freedom.]
Washington lived through extraordinary times and accomplished extraordinary things. In ancient times, no doubt he would have been elevated to god status by the Romans, like Julius Caesar. The Greeks would have talked of his godlike nature. We don't do that, but can we just celebrate this day qua his birthday ?
Book of the Week
On a prior post of Washington's Birthday I mentioned a magnificent pair of volumes on Washington's life, viz. All Cloudless Glory: The Life of George Washington by Harrison Clark. Those books are superb in using original sources of Washington's letters and writings as the basis of the book; one reads Washington's own words and sees his character ... and humor.
For this week, I select a classic book on him, The Life of George Washington, by John Marshall, the famous Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Marshall knew Washington personally, having served on his staff during the war and later knew personally of the political strife that occurred in his terms as President.
The book is well-worth reading and is available from many sources, including a fine hardcover edition from Liberty Press, which I own.
Markets
Still holding my puts; I will add the last slug of this speculation at some point.
Word of the Day
"Evince" - verb, transitive[ $10] used often in Marshall's "The Life of George Washington".
Evince means 1. indicate, to make evident; 2. show that one has (a quality)
Sentence: Washington's refusal to be drawn into the growing partisan strife in the nation in the 1790s evinces his singular strength of honor and devotion to the entire nation. We surely could use someone with his principles today.
He also showed his devotion to the core philosophy of the United States, "that are men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" arranging for the slaves of himself and his wife to be freed upon the demise of himself and his wife with proper support for their lives, education and retirements. [Legal reasons prevented earlier grants of freedom.]
Washington lived through extraordinary times and accomplished extraordinary things. In ancient times, no doubt he would have been elevated to god status by the Romans, like Julius Caesar. The Greeks would have talked of his godlike nature. We don't do that, but can we just celebrate this day qua his birthday ?
Book of the Week
On a prior post of Washington's Birthday I mentioned a magnificent pair of volumes on Washington's life, viz. All Cloudless Glory: The Life of George Washington by Harrison Clark. Those books are superb in using original sources of Washington's letters and writings as the basis of the book; one reads Washington's own words and sees his character ... and humor.
For this week, I select a classic book on him, The Life of George Washington, by John Marshall, the famous Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Marshall knew Washington personally, having served on his staff during the war and later knew personally of the political strife that occurred in his terms as President.
The book is well-worth reading and is available from many sources, including a fine hardcover edition from Liberty Press, which I own.
Markets
Still holding my puts; I will add the last slug of this speculation at some point.
Word of the Day
"Evince" - verb, transitive[ $10] used often in Marshall's "The Life of George Washington".
Evince means 1. indicate, to make evident; 2. show that one has (a quality)
Sentence: Washington's refusal to be drawn into the growing partisan strife in the nation in the 1790s evinces his singular strength of honor and devotion to the entire nation. We surely could use someone with his principles today.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Humor Can Show a Bit of Truth
Often one hears that good humor needs to contain a kernal of truth to click. Today I'll turn that around to extract some truth from a very humorous Super Bowl ad. The ad that caught my attention is the one Audi made that features the Green Car and Green Police (courtesy of an environment-climate web site that Mrs. B reads) ->
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/07/the-superbowl-green-police-commercial/#more-16192
The ad is a parody, but is riveting in showing how the logical extension of extreme green rhetoric would lead to a gestapo-like "green police" intruding on all aspects of our lives. And it's true in parts: some communities DO search trash on occasion. The ad keeps its humor as the green gestapo works - the green cop on the Segway looks like the Mall Cop in the recent comedy movie. But California is installing have smog sensing devices roadside to ferret out "polluting" cars [see http://www.smogtips.com/remote_sensing.cfm]. Can stops to search be far away ?
But think about the ad: what does it finally show ? A fellow driving an Audi A3 TDI diesel getting a compliment and free pass, stepping out of the line for searches. What is the message ? Buy our car and you'll be exempt from the oppression. The car has a base price of about $30,000, meaning it will probably cost $35-40,000 when they add in the various option packages, charges, taxes, etc.
Did you know that the median disposable income for households is a bit under $45,000 in the US ? That is just a bit over the cost of the "green" car. It's obvious that the bulk of the people - the common man - can't afford this paragon of greenness for family transportation. It's even less affordable when you include the fact that two cars are necessary for a two-earner household that IS the median lifestyle in the US.
The upper middle class can. And of course the ruling class [aka the rich & powerful] can. The fanatical environmental movement doesn't care. They want to impose regulations that will prohibit and ban broad aspects of the life-style of the common man and require one to use expensive and time-consuming devices and practices. After all, to them, you're just a serf living on their manor. And they want the traditional "by your leave, master" humbly said before you do anything.
Watch that ad again and see the future as the fanatical green movement does. It's no joke. Someday if they get their way, you'll be using an outhouse in the backyard, freezing in winter and frying in summer, and riding to work on a bicycle in the rain; that is, IF you have a job. As for those electronic devices you like, such as games, TV, the Internet - forget them. They use power. The ruling classes like this: they can use their wealth to avoid all those impositions and it keeps the common man in his place.
The environmental movement needs to re-organize and add reason to its practices and proposals. Kick out the fanatics. Recognize the huge progress made since 1965. Cars are enormously cleaner now. Recognize the very high marginal costs of further improvements. Is that money wisely spent ? Lots of poor people need help. Education of the young in college is very expensive. Are scarce resources best spent extracting another milligram of pollution from cars ?
Most so-called "green jobs" are subsidized and not lasting. They produce something no one would freely buy at a fair price. They take scarce resources better spent elsewhere and direct them to the projects that are simply placebos.
Don't let the ruling class use environmental rules to impose aristocratic practices. As the commercial humorously shows, the ruling classes will use their money to get out of the queue. The human mind is the greatest tool. Let's use it to develop slowly green policies and practices that truly work. And maintain our fraternity with our fellow man.
Book of the Week
Our Magnificent Bastard Tongue: The Untold Story of English by John McWhorter. This very readable book goes far beyond the usual focus on similar words by looking at grammatical structures, too. Why does English NOT have inflections - endings - for most noun and verbs ? Why do we conjugate the verb, "drink" as drink, drank, drunk ? Why do we say, 'I am swimming' and not the simpler, 'I swim' for the present tense. The book shows how old Celtic, the Vikings, proto-Germanic and old Indo-European all had influence on our English. McWhorter also wrote "The Power of Babel" which covers all human language and for which there is also an excellent lecture series on CDs from the Teaching Company.
Markets
Ditto yesterday. Je ne fais rien. Ich machte nichts. Nic nie robię. Estoy haciendo nada. Non faccio nulla. Nihil facio. I am doing nothing.
Is GOOG morphing into Mister Softee ? They seem to trying to copy good products of others to get some income beyond the core business, as Microsoft has done for years, with little success. Playing catch-up ball usually fails in business. That's one reason I sold that stock around $620 a few months ago. They were just copying the iPhone. Now they are copying Facebook and Twitter. But why trust GOOG ? They just want your private info to sell you ads. Not for me.
PS: Ooops. Krypto wants me do buy some VWO to get the emerging markets allocation up to the standard. I shall obey this AM. Good doggie, Krypto, you are a super fund manager - here's your fee, a fine dog biscuit.
Word of the Day
"Solecism" - noun [$10]
Solecism means 1. a mistake of grammer or idiom; a blunder in the manner of speaking or writing; 2. a piece of bad manners or incorrect behavior.
Sentence: The fanatical greenies are trying to redefine the lifestyle of the common man as a solecism, just as the political correctness crowd has tried to control common speech.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/07/the-superbowl-green-police-commercial/#more-16192
The ad is a parody, but is riveting in showing how the logical extension of extreme green rhetoric would lead to a gestapo-like "green police" intruding on all aspects of our lives. And it's true in parts: some communities DO search trash on occasion. The ad keeps its humor as the green gestapo works - the green cop on the Segway looks like the Mall Cop in the recent comedy movie. But California is installing have smog sensing devices roadside to ferret out "polluting" cars [see http://www.smogtips.com/remote_sensing.cfm]. Can stops to search be far away ?
But think about the ad: what does it finally show ? A fellow driving an Audi A3 TDI diesel getting a compliment and free pass, stepping out of the line for searches. What is the message ? Buy our car and you'll be exempt from the oppression. The car has a base price of about $30,000, meaning it will probably cost $35-40,000 when they add in the various option packages, charges, taxes, etc.
Did you know that the median disposable income for households is a bit under $45,000 in the US ? That is just a bit over the cost of the "green" car. It's obvious that the bulk of the people - the common man - can't afford this paragon of greenness for family transportation. It's even less affordable when you include the fact that two cars are necessary for a two-earner household that IS the median lifestyle in the US.
The upper middle class can. And of course the ruling class [aka the rich & powerful] can. The fanatical environmental movement doesn't care. They want to impose regulations that will prohibit and ban broad aspects of the life-style of the common man and require one to use expensive and time-consuming devices and practices. After all, to them, you're just a serf living on their manor. And they want the traditional "by your leave, master" humbly said before you do anything.
Watch that ad again and see the future as the fanatical green movement does. It's no joke. Someday if they get their way, you'll be using an outhouse in the backyard, freezing in winter and frying in summer, and riding to work on a bicycle in the rain; that is, IF you have a job. As for those electronic devices you like, such as games, TV, the Internet - forget them. They use power. The ruling classes like this: they can use their wealth to avoid all those impositions and it keeps the common man in his place.
The environmental movement needs to re-organize and add reason to its practices and proposals. Kick out the fanatics. Recognize the huge progress made since 1965. Cars are enormously cleaner now. Recognize the very high marginal costs of further improvements. Is that money wisely spent ? Lots of poor people need help. Education of the young in college is very expensive. Are scarce resources best spent extracting another milligram of pollution from cars ?
Most so-called "green jobs" are subsidized and not lasting. They produce something no one would freely buy at a fair price. They take scarce resources better spent elsewhere and direct them to the projects that are simply placebos.
Don't let the ruling class use environmental rules to impose aristocratic practices. As the commercial humorously shows, the ruling classes will use their money to get out of the queue. The human mind is the greatest tool. Let's use it to develop slowly green policies and practices that truly work. And maintain our fraternity with our fellow man.
Book of the Week
Our Magnificent Bastard Tongue: The Untold Story of English by John McWhorter. This very readable book goes far beyond the usual focus on similar words by looking at grammatical structures, too. Why does English NOT have inflections - endings - for most noun and verbs ? Why do we conjugate the verb, "drink" as drink, drank, drunk ? Why do we say, 'I am swimming' and not the simpler, 'I swim' for the present tense. The book shows how old Celtic, the Vikings, proto-Germanic and old Indo-European all had influence on our English. McWhorter also wrote "The Power of Babel" which covers all human language and for which there is also an excellent lecture series on CDs from the Teaching Company.
Markets
Ditto yesterday. Je ne fais rien. Ich machte nichts. Nic nie robię. Estoy haciendo nada. Non faccio nulla. Nihil facio. I am doing nothing.
Is GOOG morphing into Mister Softee ? They seem to trying to copy good products of others to get some income beyond the core business, as Microsoft has done for years, with little success. Playing catch-up ball usually fails in business. That's one reason I sold that stock around $620 a few months ago. They were just copying the iPhone. Now they are copying Facebook and Twitter. But why trust GOOG ? They just want your private info to sell you ads. Not for me.
PS: Ooops. Krypto wants me do buy some VWO to get the emerging markets allocation up to the standard. I shall obey this AM. Good doggie, Krypto, you are a super fund manager - here's your fee, a fine dog biscuit.
Word of the Day
"Solecism" - noun [$10]
Solecism means 1. a mistake of grammer or idiom; a blunder in the manner of speaking or writing; 2. a piece of bad manners or incorrect behavior.
Sentence: The fanatical greenies are trying to redefine the lifestyle of the common man as a solecism, just as the political correctness crowd has tried to control common speech.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
A Smoking Gun Appears
A article appeared in the WSJ of January 29, 2010 that had an innocuous title: "Slowdown in Warming Tied to Less Water Vapor". Anyone without a scientific interest or interest in global warming might have skipped it. The article itself makes excuses for why the hugely expensive climate models failed to forecast the fact the recent cooling. "Climatologists have puzzled over why global average temperatures have stayed roughly flat in the past decade, despite a long-term warming trend. New research suggests that lower levels of water vapor in the stratosphere may partly explain the anomaly."
"The study, appearing in the journal Science, points out that the concentration of water vapor in the stratosphere has dropped about 10% in the past decade, triggered by unexplained cooler temperatures at certain high altitudes above the tropics. The study concludes that in the last decade the decline in water vapor slowed the rate of rising temperatures by about 25% ..."
Here's a well-hidden fact: water vapor - not carbon dioxide, is the dominant "greenhouse gas". Water vapor accounts for about 30 times the warming of carbon dioxide. Surprised ?
The climate modelers ASSUME that water vapor has no independent changes and is in permanent equilibrium. That means they can mostly ignore it in their calculations and simply treat it as being perturbed a bit by other "forces" like carbon dioxide.
Here's a metaphor: The elephant and its tail. Watching the elephant's tail can tell you where the elephant is going and one could build elaborate "models' to forecast the movement of the tail, perhaps based on the number of flies landing on the elephant's back. And it might work for awhile. BUT when that elephant turns, that model would collapse and be completely wrong.
Water vapor is the elephant and carbon dioxide is the tail. Remember, water vapor produces 30x more greenhouse warming than does carbon dioxide.
What else does the facts of the article prove ? That water vapor is NOT in permanent equilibrium. That means a core assumption of the climate models is WRONG. The entire house of claims that humans cause global warming is built on sand. Unless a model independently and correctly forecast amounts water vapor in the atmosphere at all levels, it will simply be wrong when used to make claims of warming in the distant future.
How can a model that is wrong for the most recent decade be used in any rational sense to make forecasts about future trends ? It simply is nonsense to use it for such. Anyone doing do is a mountebank and charlatan, selling solid gold watches for $1. Willing buyers are chumps.
Another analogy: Imagine a stock market model that missed the tech stock crash of 2000 and the Panic of 2008. Who would use it for forecast stock price levels now ? No one.
Don't expect the scientists to trumpet this. They want their grant money to continue in the huge amounts they've gotten for years.
Book of the Week
"New England's Riotous Revolution" by Robert Ellis Cahill. This is a superb little book, fun to read and provides insight on the initial years of the American revolution at the street level. The book is quite short at 67 pages and is cheap (I paid $4.95), but reading it is like finding a small purse full of gold coins. ISBN 0-916787-12-5.
To quote the author: "This little book was prepared not only to give you an insight into the true character of the heroes and villains active in the early stages of the American Revolution, but to introduce you to some of the characters who got little or no publicity then or now, yet played a vital part in the rebellion - and to provide information on some of the hilarity and hardships experiences by the average Yankee as he struggled for freedom in enemy-controlled New England."
Find it, buy it and read it. You'll love this book.
Market
Good rally. I'm waiting now. Speculative longs are FCX, BHP, MT, all green now.
Word of the Day
"Surd" - noun & adjective [$10]
Surd means (adjective) 1. (Math) (of a number) irrational; 2. (Phonetic) (of a sound) uttered with the teeth and not the voice (e. g. f, k. p. s. t); (noun) 1. (Math) a surd number, esp. the root of an integer; 2. (Phonetics) a surd sound.
Sentence: (from Public Opinion by Walter Lippmann, page 186 of 1997 paperback edition) "Coercion is the surd in almost all social theory, except the Machiavellian. The temptation to ignore it, because it is absurd, inexpressible and unmanageable becomes overwhelming in any man who is trying to rationalize human life."
"The study, appearing in the journal Science, points out that the concentration of water vapor in the stratosphere has dropped about 10% in the past decade, triggered by unexplained cooler temperatures at certain high altitudes above the tropics. The study concludes that in the last decade the decline in water vapor slowed the rate of rising temperatures by about 25% ..."
Here's a well-hidden fact: water vapor - not carbon dioxide, is the dominant "greenhouse gas". Water vapor accounts for about 30 times the warming of carbon dioxide. Surprised ?
The climate modelers ASSUME that water vapor has no independent changes and is in permanent equilibrium. That means they can mostly ignore it in their calculations and simply treat it as being perturbed a bit by other "forces" like carbon dioxide.
Here's a metaphor: The elephant and its tail. Watching the elephant's tail can tell you where the elephant is going and one could build elaborate "models' to forecast the movement of the tail, perhaps based on the number of flies landing on the elephant's back. And it might work for awhile. BUT when that elephant turns, that model would collapse and be completely wrong.
Water vapor is the elephant and carbon dioxide is the tail. Remember, water vapor produces 30x more greenhouse warming than does carbon dioxide.
What else does the facts of the article prove ? That water vapor is NOT in permanent equilibrium. That means a core assumption of the climate models is WRONG. The entire house of claims that humans cause global warming is built on sand. Unless a model independently and correctly forecast amounts water vapor in the atmosphere at all levels, it will simply be wrong when used to make claims of warming in the distant future.
How can a model that is wrong for the most recent decade be used in any rational sense to make forecasts about future trends ? It simply is nonsense to use it for such. Anyone doing do is a mountebank and charlatan, selling solid gold watches for $1. Willing buyers are chumps.
Another analogy: Imagine a stock market model that missed the tech stock crash of 2000 and the Panic of 2008. Who would use it for forecast stock price levels now ? No one.
Don't expect the scientists to trumpet this. They want their grant money to continue in the huge amounts they've gotten for years.
Book of the Week
"New England's Riotous Revolution" by Robert Ellis Cahill. This is a superb little book, fun to read and provides insight on the initial years of the American revolution at the street level. The book is quite short at 67 pages and is cheap (I paid $4.95), but reading it is like finding a small purse full of gold coins. ISBN 0-916787-12-5.
To quote the author: "This little book was prepared not only to give you an insight into the true character of the heroes and villains active in the early stages of the American Revolution, but to introduce you to some of the characters who got little or no publicity then or now, yet played a vital part in the rebellion - and to provide information on some of the hilarity and hardships experiences by the average Yankee as he struggled for freedom in enemy-controlled New England."
Find it, buy it and read it. You'll love this book.
Market
Good rally. I'm waiting now. Speculative longs are FCX, BHP, MT, all green now.
Word of the Day
"Surd" - noun & adjective [$10]
Surd means (adjective) 1. (Math) (of a number) irrational; 2. (Phonetic) (of a sound) uttered with the teeth and not the voice (e. g. f, k. p. s. t); (noun) 1. (Math) a surd number, esp. the root of an integer; 2. (Phonetics) a surd sound.
Sentence: (from Public Opinion by Walter Lippmann, page 186 of 1997 paperback edition) "Coercion is the surd in almost all social theory, except the Machiavellian. The temptation to ignore it, because it is absurd, inexpressible and unmanageable becomes overwhelming in any man who is trying to rationalize human life."
Monday, January 25, 2010
Call Me Curmudgeon*
*Word of the Day
Why does every store want to spy on me ? All I want to do is to buy the product, perhaps even with that "old-fashioned" money, viz. cash. They want me to join their "rewards" clubs or get my phone number or even my name & address, too. This applies to nearly every large store that I've entered for at last a year, including Best Buy, Dick's, and the local supermarket.
Heck, Best Buy would not even let me spend $500 on Friday unless I gave them my phone number, name & address. Maybe they wanted more, but I told them what to do with their product and walked out.
These companies want the information to sell it to marketing companies who want to keep track of my purchases. Without knowing who I am, that information is less valuable. It's all about money.
Hello ... I don't want to be in your database. I don't want to get phone calls asking for surveys, or offering special products. I don't want your bleeping rewards !!! All I want is to spend some money and buy some goods you are offering for sale. If that so novel ?
This has been a public issue for a few years, but as usual, Congress is in the pockets of the ruling classes and does nothing to help protect our privacy. Europe is way ahead of the US on this issue.
Companies want the last four digits of my Social security number (e. g. the cable company). They say it doesn't violate my privacy since it's not the entire number. Uh ... BUT if many companies do that, one could hack into them, get it and them manipulate or steal my accounts using that same "security" code. How stupid is that "security" system !
To me, companies simply don't care about customers any more. Customers are cows to be milked. Or is that milched ? They want to put their leeches onto us and bleed us awhile until we drop to one knee, then scrape a few off so we can stand again.
Not me. I made my electronics purchase online from Amazon and saved $80. Sure, Amazon knows who I am as they will deliver the product to my home. But I already have a account there and it's that just ONE firm. Not a dozen or more.
Book of the Week
My Life as a Rebel, by Angelica Balabanoff (written in 1938). I just finished this book. It's an extraordinary first hand account of the earliest days of the socialist movement, the Bolshevik revolution in Russia, how it evolved into a criminal tyranny, and personal insight into Mussolini, his Fascism and how he seized power. Yes, these are all connected. Balabanoff was on that so-called sealed train taking Lenin to Russia thru Germany in 1917 and knew Mussolini before he was anybody.
Balabanoff was truly concerned about better conditions and life for workers and cared nothing for power (she almost starved as she refused special food allowances). That distinguishes her from most of the other famous revolutionaries (at least the ones who seized power). She left Russia in 1922 as Lenin, Zionviev and others had been stifling her for nearly the entire four years she spent aiding the Bolshevik revolution. She saw how it became distorted with terror, bureaucracy and corruption. She had deep, personal insights into all the leaders (Lenin, Trotsky, Zinoviev, Mussolini, etc.) and other famous figures like the American, John Reed (who died disheartened by events in Russia.)
She also saw how the Comintern became a mouthpiece of the Bolsheviks and cared nothing for other labor movements in the world. How ? She was its first Secretary ! Balabanoff knew many languages [Russian, French, Italian , English and German at least] and often acted as a translator at top level meetings.
You cannot understand the revolutionary era of the 20th century without reading this book. Dry histories simply will not convey what this first hand account does. Try to buy a copy on used book websites.
Markets
If the markets firm today, I might speculate on the long side after the first hour.
Word of the Day
"Curmudgeon" - noun [$10]
Curmudgeon means 1. a cantankerous** person; 2. a bad-tempered or miserly person.
Sentence: Is Bunkerman a curmudgeon for not wanting to strip himself of privacy when buying something, or perhaps just serious about protecting his personal information and habits ?
**cantankerous means bad tempered, quarrelsome.
Why does every store want to spy on me ? All I want to do is to buy the product, perhaps even with that "old-fashioned" money, viz. cash. They want me to join their "rewards" clubs or get my phone number or even my name & address, too. This applies to nearly every large store that I've entered for at last a year, including Best Buy, Dick's, and the local supermarket.
Heck, Best Buy would not even let me spend $500 on Friday unless I gave them my phone number, name & address. Maybe they wanted more, but I told them what to do with their product and walked out.
These companies want the information to sell it to marketing companies who want to keep track of my purchases. Without knowing who I am, that information is less valuable. It's all about money.
Hello ... I don't want to be in your database. I don't want to get phone calls asking for surveys, or offering special products. I don't want your bleeping rewards !!! All I want is to spend some money and buy some goods you are offering for sale. If that so novel ?
This has been a public issue for a few years, but as usual, Congress is in the pockets of the ruling classes and does nothing to help protect our privacy. Europe is way ahead of the US on this issue.
Companies want the last four digits of my Social security number (e. g. the cable company). They say it doesn't violate my privacy since it's not the entire number. Uh ... BUT if many companies do that, one could hack into them, get it and them manipulate or steal my accounts using that same "security" code. How stupid is that "security" system !
To me, companies simply don't care about customers any more. Customers are cows to be milked. Or is that milched ? They want to put their leeches onto us and bleed us awhile until we drop to one knee, then scrape a few off so we can stand again.
Not me. I made my electronics purchase online from Amazon and saved $80. Sure, Amazon knows who I am as they will deliver the product to my home. But I already have a account there and it's that just ONE firm. Not a dozen or more.
Book of the Week
My Life as a Rebel, by Angelica Balabanoff (written in 1938). I just finished this book. It's an extraordinary first hand account of the earliest days of the socialist movement, the Bolshevik revolution in Russia, how it evolved into a criminal tyranny, and personal insight into Mussolini, his Fascism and how he seized power. Yes, these are all connected. Balabanoff was on that so-called sealed train taking Lenin to Russia thru Germany in 1917 and knew Mussolini before he was anybody.
Balabanoff was truly concerned about better conditions and life for workers and cared nothing for power (she almost starved as she refused special food allowances). That distinguishes her from most of the other famous revolutionaries (at least the ones who seized power). She left Russia in 1922 as Lenin, Zionviev and others had been stifling her for nearly the entire four years she spent aiding the Bolshevik revolution. She saw how it became distorted with terror, bureaucracy and corruption. She had deep, personal insights into all the leaders (Lenin, Trotsky, Zinoviev, Mussolini, etc.) and other famous figures like the American, John Reed (who died disheartened by events in Russia.)
She also saw how the Comintern became a mouthpiece of the Bolsheviks and cared nothing for other labor movements in the world. How ? She was its first Secretary ! Balabanoff knew many languages [Russian, French, Italian , English and German at least] and often acted as a translator at top level meetings.
You cannot understand the revolutionary era of the 20th century without reading this book. Dry histories simply will not convey what this first hand account does. Try to buy a copy on used book websites.
Markets
If the markets firm today, I might speculate on the long side after the first hour.
Word of the Day
"Curmudgeon" - noun [$10]
Curmudgeon means 1. a cantankerous** person; 2. a bad-tempered or miserly person.
Sentence: Is Bunkerman a curmudgeon for not wanting to strip himself of privacy when buying something, or perhaps just serious about protecting his personal information and habits ?
**cantankerous means bad tempered, quarrelsome.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Flounder
Perhaps that will become Obama's nickname. He continues to flail away and flop from issue to issue and go nowhere. He's delivered nothing for the economy, nothing for jobs, nothing for the common man and done nothing for human rights all over the world.
The book I heard about him before the election seems true - an empty suit with a speech. He seems to be in the pocket of Congressional leaders and is unable to push through a reasonable compromise on health care. Instead, he huddles with the Duchess of the wine & pearls set, the Dishonorable Nancy Pelosi, and the hack from Las Vegas, Harry Reid, shuts out moderates and crafts a secret bill with the plenty of payoffs to buy votes. What a disgrace !
Perhaps Massachusetts will put a stake into the heart of this monster today. That would be fitting - having a Massachusetts tea party to toss this 2,000 page oppressive law into the sea.
Markets
I put on a speculative long Friday on the pullback, by buying some call options on the S&P 500. I'm wary, but think there is more money flowing to stocks. News could change my mind, or the tape could. I'll post adds or sales in the comments in near real time.
Book of the Week
Classical Mechanics by L. D. Landau and E. M. Lifshitz. This is volume one of the famous Russian Course of Theoretical Physics for advanced undergraduates or graduate students. One needs calculus to the level of vector calculus to understand the mathematics, but the concepts are explained in simple, clear language.
The book derives the major classical conservation laws that govern the motions of all matter from simple principles and symmetries of the Universe: the principle of Least Action, Galileo's classical relativity principle, that space is homogeneous and isotropic and that time is homogeneous. Conservation of energy is derived from time symmetry, conservation of momentum is derived from the homogeneity of space and conservation of angular momentum is derived from isotropy of space.
The laws of motion of matter arise from the Principal of Least Action, which is an extremely broad, deep and remarkably universal method of deriving fundamental laws of physics. This principal has been used from classical mechanics and classical electrodynamic to quantum mechanics to relativistic quantum chromodynamics. It's mathematical form seems to capture something extraordinarily deep about the structure of the Universe. Understanding the classical formulation for the simplest particle mechanics gives one the firmest foundation for those other fields and for philosophical thought.
All that is covered in the first 24 pages of this 164 page book. This is one of my top ten books.
Word of the Day
"Avatar" - noun [$10]
Avatar means 1a. an incarnation or embodiment, as of a quality or concept; 1b. a varying manifestation or aspect of a particular deity.
Sentence: "Avatars Widen Realm of Virtual Reality on Internet", a headline from the WSJ 1/24/2001, page B1. Avatar is also the title of a blockbuster movie that I will NOT see in the theater.
The book I heard about him before the election seems true - an empty suit with a speech. He seems to be in the pocket of Congressional leaders and is unable to push through a reasonable compromise on health care. Instead, he huddles with the Duchess of the wine & pearls set, the Dishonorable Nancy Pelosi, and the hack from Las Vegas, Harry Reid, shuts out moderates and crafts a secret bill with the plenty of payoffs to buy votes. What a disgrace !
Perhaps Massachusetts will put a stake into the heart of this monster today. That would be fitting - having a Massachusetts tea party to toss this 2,000 page oppressive law into the sea.
Markets
I put on a speculative long Friday on the pullback, by buying some call options on the S&P 500. I'm wary, but think there is more money flowing to stocks. News could change my mind, or the tape could. I'll post adds or sales in the comments in near real time.
Book of the Week
Classical Mechanics by L. D. Landau and E. M. Lifshitz. This is volume one of the famous Russian Course of Theoretical Physics for advanced undergraduates or graduate students. One needs calculus to the level of vector calculus to understand the mathematics, but the concepts are explained in simple, clear language.
The book derives the major classical conservation laws that govern the motions of all matter from simple principles and symmetries of the Universe: the principle of Least Action, Galileo's classical relativity principle, that space is homogeneous and isotropic and that time is homogeneous. Conservation of energy is derived from time symmetry, conservation of momentum is derived from the homogeneity of space and conservation of angular momentum is derived from isotropy of space.
The laws of motion of matter arise from the Principal of Least Action, which is an extremely broad, deep and remarkably universal method of deriving fundamental laws of physics. This principal has been used from classical mechanics and classical electrodynamic to quantum mechanics to relativistic quantum chromodynamics. It's mathematical form seems to capture something extraordinarily deep about the structure of the Universe. Understanding the classical formulation for the simplest particle mechanics gives one the firmest foundation for those other fields and for philosophical thought.
All that is covered in the first 24 pages of this 164 page book. This is one of my top ten books.
Word of the Day
"Avatar" - noun [$10]
Avatar means 1a. an incarnation or embodiment, as of a quality or concept; 1b. a varying manifestation or aspect of a particular deity.
Sentence: "Avatars Widen Realm of Virtual Reality on Internet", a headline from the WSJ 1/24/2001, page B1. Avatar is also the title of a blockbuster movie that I will NOT see in the theater.
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
A Star Appears ...
That star is our dog, Sky, who is now emerging to compete in sheep herding competition this Spring. Here's a link to a YouTube video of him in a lesson this past weekend:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6Cyx_ru46k
He's responding to whistle commands and does a fine gather (aka an "outrun"), drives the sheep through various "gates" and then "sheds" one off the rest of the flock He really likes doing that. We have high hopes for him in the trials, but he's really our pet first. His aunt, Krypto, does this, too, but started lessons as an older dog, so is a bit behind. She might catch up fast as she's very smart.
Markets
Alcoa missed earnings. What a shocker - not ! Alcoa is a poorly managed company and is a serial misser. That company needs to be taken over by someone with better management.
Book of the Week
If you want to understand the early history of Central Asia, then read this book: The Empire of the Steppes: a history of Central Asia by René Grousset. This book covers Central Asia from the beginnings circa 2000 BC to the 18th century. Drawing hugely on Chinese sources, the changing cultures and peoples who populated this regions are described from the early Indo-European tribes, to the Turkic and Mongol tribes, the Arab invasions and on and on.
The book lays out many interconnections of cultures of China, India, Persia, Tibet and even to Rome. Why is this huge area dominated now by Turkic peoples and the religion of Islam ? How connected is Tibet to China ? What role did the "Silk Road" play and who created it ? The book has historical facts to help one understand all this.
I haven't finished it yet, but have already learned a huge amount. It's very dry history, but this book has the facts.
As a bonus, it helps one understand the art and culture of Afghanistan in antiquity. I wish I had read it before seeing the exhibit on the art of Afghanistan at the Metropolitan Museum in NYC last summer. I would have better understood the cultures that produced the art.
Word of the Day
"Sapid" - adjective [$10] literary
Sapid means 1. having (especially an agreeable) flavor; savory; palatable; not insipid; 2. literary (of talk, writing, etc.) not vapid or uninteresting. Sapid is the antonym of insipid in both meanings.
Sentence: Bunkerman made a particularly sapid multicultural pizza last weekend with a blue corn meal crust, mozzarella and Parmesan cheeses, a pesto sauce, Polish smoked sausage, black olives, red peppers and elephant garlic. Primo ! And he has leftovers tonight ... with a fine red wine ... mmmmmmmmmm.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6Cyx_ru46k
He's responding to whistle commands and does a fine gather (aka an "outrun"), drives the sheep through various "gates" and then "sheds" one off the rest of the flock He really likes doing that. We have high hopes for him in the trials, but he's really our pet first. His aunt, Krypto, does this, too, but started lessons as an older dog, so is a bit behind. She might catch up fast as she's very smart.
Markets
Alcoa missed earnings. What a shocker - not ! Alcoa is a poorly managed company and is a serial misser. That company needs to be taken over by someone with better management.
Book of the Week
If you want to understand the early history of Central Asia, then read this book: The Empire of the Steppes: a history of Central Asia by René Grousset. This book covers Central Asia from the beginnings circa 2000 BC to the 18th century. Drawing hugely on Chinese sources, the changing cultures and peoples who populated this regions are described from the early Indo-European tribes, to the Turkic and Mongol tribes, the Arab invasions and on and on.
The book lays out many interconnections of cultures of China, India, Persia, Tibet and even to Rome. Why is this huge area dominated now by Turkic peoples and the religion of Islam ? How connected is Tibet to China ? What role did the "Silk Road" play and who created it ? The book has historical facts to help one understand all this.
I haven't finished it yet, but have already learned a huge amount. It's very dry history, but this book has the facts.
As a bonus, it helps one understand the art and culture of Afghanistan in antiquity. I wish I had read it before seeing the exhibit on the art of Afghanistan at the Metropolitan Museum in NYC last summer. I would have better understood the cultures that produced the art.
Word of the Day
"Sapid" - adjective [$10] literary
Sapid means 1. having (especially an agreeable) flavor; savory; palatable; not insipid; 2. literary (of talk, writing, etc.) not vapid or uninteresting. Sapid is the antonym of insipid in both meanings.
Sentence: Bunkerman made a particularly sapid multicultural pizza last weekend with a blue corn meal crust, mozzarella and Parmesan cheeses, a pesto sauce, Polish smoked sausage, black olives, red peppers and elephant garlic. Primo ! And he has leftovers tonight ... with a fine red wine ... mmmmmmmmmm.
Monday, January 4, 2010
A New Year Begins ...
Krypto Fund returned 21.56%, beating most hedge funds according to FT. Krypto Fund uses a simple asset allocation model on Excel to invest the long term money among asset classes: cash, TIPs, bonds, US stocks, Foreign stocks, real estate and precious metals. The fees are dog biscuits, paid to the manager, Krypto, my dog, who pushes a button on the computer to re-allocate. Who needs beefers ?
What do we know now that we did not know one year ago ?
First
The big banks all repaid TARP in 2009. Losses, while large, were not the industry-wide monumental tidal wave that the bomb throwers proclaims so stridently in 2008. That means that "most" of the collapse in the financial markets in 2008 truly was a simple panic, not the incurable end of the world proclaimed.
How did the panic get so bad ?
Simple: huge money pools of hedge funds sloshing around worldwide making huge "bets" on collapse through short selling (often naked) and credit defaults swaps. The simple answer is, "The beefers did it."
Don't overstate or understate this. There was more than smoke. There was a modest fire that the Fed was controlling. But then the beefers threw on the gasoline.
The TARP investments in the big banks helped stop the panic, which was truly out of control as a run on the bank in money market funds was incredibly dangerous. Note: only one major money fund broke the buck, due to excessive investment in Lehman paper.
Second
This means that the Republicans in Congress were completely wrong in causing the initial defeat of TARP. After that defeat, the stock market fell 20% and the retirement assets of a generation were gutted. The market has "almost" recovered that, but not quite. The pure libertarian philosophy, while so attractive in theory, proved again to be inadequate in a dynamical world.
Third
The public was NOT right, either in its opposition to the TARP or in its belief that housing was a retirement asset that could not go down. That belief led millions upon millions of them to commit to pay too much of their income for housing, thinking it would go up in value to let them repay that huge debt burden. This was a "greater fool" bubble by the PUBLIC. The group thinking of the people was WRONG.
Book of the Week
"Public Opinion" by Walter Lippmann. This excellent book was written in 1922 by the man who became the first nationally syndicated columnist and wrote a hugely influential column for forty years. The main point of the book is that the public and most governmental leaders have insufficient information to make truly informed decisions about modern, complex issues. I state part of his thesis thus: "polls based on ignorance are meaningless". They are useless for making informed, correct decisions.
It's remarkable to me that this book and its arguments seem foreign to modern journalists. They blather endlessly about what the people think about some issue yet Lippmann almost 90 years ago knew, and showed, that the people mostly are ignorant of even the simplest facts or theory to base a truly informed opinion. Lippmann had personal experience in the World War I propaganda machine and knew both its power and the difficulty informing the people.
He also was one of the rich and powerful and recognized the power of his class. He recognized how they often used their power to gather more power and wealth.
I haven't yet finished the book, but so far, it's a jewel.
PS: The new edition with the introduction by Lippmann's biographer, Ronald Steel, is best.
Word of the Day
"Scry" - verb, intransitive [$10]
Scry means to divine by crystal gazing.
Sentence: Bunkerman did not scry to learn the conclusions in today's blog; they came from the application of simple principles and ruthless logic to events in the public press.
What do we know now that we did not know one year ago ?
First
The big banks all repaid TARP in 2009. Losses, while large, were not the industry-wide monumental tidal wave that the bomb throwers proclaims so stridently in 2008. That means that "most" of the collapse in the financial markets in 2008 truly was a simple panic, not the incurable end of the world proclaimed.
How did the panic get so bad ?
Simple: huge money pools of hedge funds sloshing around worldwide making huge "bets" on collapse through short selling (often naked) and credit defaults swaps. The simple answer is, "The beefers did it."
Don't overstate or understate this. There was more than smoke. There was a modest fire that the Fed was controlling. But then the beefers threw on the gasoline.
The TARP investments in the big banks helped stop the panic, which was truly out of control as a run on the bank in money market funds was incredibly dangerous. Note: only one major money fund broke the buck, due to excessive investment in Lehman paper.
Second
This means that the Republicans in Congress were completely wrong in causing the initial defeat of TARP. After that defeat, the stock market fell 20% and the retirement assets of a generation were gutted. The market has "almost" recovered that, but not quite. The pure libertarian philosophy, while so attractive in theory, proved again to be inadequate in a dynamical world.
Third
The public was NOT right, either in its opposition to the TARP or in its belief that housing was a retirement asset that could not go down. That belief led millions upon millions of them to commit to pay too much of their income for housing, thinking it would go up in value to let them repay that huge debt burden. This was a "greater fool" bubble by the PUBLIC. The group thinking of the people was WRONG.
Book of the Week
"Public Opinion" by Walter Lippmann. This excellent book was written in 1922 by the man who became the first nationally syndicated columnist and wrote a hugely influential column for forty years. The main point of the book is that the public and most governmental leaders have insufficient information to make truly informed decisions about modern, complex issues. I state part of his thesis thus: "polls based on ignorance are meaningless". They are useless for making informed, correct decisions.
It's remarkable to me that this book and its arguments seem foreign to modern journalists. They blather endlessly about what the people think about some issue yet Lippmann almost 90 years ago knew, and showed, that the people mostly are ignorant of even the simplest facts or theory to base a truly informed opinion. Lippmann had personal experience in the World War I propaganda machine and knew both its power and the difficulty informing the people.
He also was one of the rich and powerful and recognized the power of his class. He recognized how they often used their power to gather more power and wealth.
I haven't yet finished the book, but so far, it's a jewel.
PS: The new edition with the introduction by Lippmann's biographer, Ronald Steel, is best.
Word of the Day
"Scry" - verb, intransitive [$10]
Scry means to divine by crystal gazing.
Sentence: Bunkerman did not scry to learn the conclusions in today's blog; they came from the application of simple principles and ruthless logic to events in the public press.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Copenhagen Cluster FUBAR
The media airwaves continue to gush over the ruling classes meeting in Copenhagen to discuss how they can foist more economic oppression onto the common man. That's after information got out that the scientists were fabricating the data and hiding contrary evidence in order to ensure their own gravy train of money for "research".
The real story is yet to come out, as the media air heads write about quotes from top scientists admitting lies and hiding evidence. The real story is in the computer codes and those related e-mails that show they were doctoring data at the deepest levels to produce only "pro-warming" results. That entire field is rife with corruption in search of more and more government funding. They even admit fabricating scare stories in public to get more grant money.
All I want for Christmas is simply a collapse at Copenhagen for whatever reason. I suspect money will cause it. With the current economic situation, the wealthier countries know they can't get their voters to sent big money to the poorest nations to help them develop without existing energy sources. They might put something on paper that will be vague and full of holes. But I think that's all that will come about. That's my hope.
Actions
IFF Copenhagen collapses AND ObamaCare, too, I will become longer term bullish again.
For now I see no trading buys or sells that have a good risk-reward profile. I admit I'm not looking too hard. I'll be out all next week, so will not want big, risky positions on my books then anyway.
Uh ... what's going on with the dollar ? I thought it was consigned to the graveyard by the doomsters. Could it be that signs of economic strength in the US are bringing in demand ? Hmm ... where was that posted a few months ago ? One guess.
This is an intermediate term rally. Longer term, the dollar must go down versus all those exporter countries in Asia and other places. They've been riding on the back of the US consumer for decades. That has to balance out.
I read that a large amount of profits at large US multinational companies come from emerging markets. Good. That gave me some more comfort that I have enough exposure to those markets.
Book of the Week
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, by Mark Twain, in AUDIO version. Mine is a BBC audio narrated by Patrick Fraley. I am now 45% through this book and I recommend it highly. The AUDIO version. The dialects of the characters are part of the crucial value of the book. An audio version produced by a good actor reading the book gives you this. Reading it in print will not.
The setting is the Mississippi river area around Illinois and Missouri circa 1830-1840. The adventures of Huck Finn bring out the culture of that regions and major issues such as freedom, slavery, and oppression, and the riverboat culture of that huge region in the US that had existed for decades as the nation moved west from the Appalachian regions to the Great Plains.
US western culture then was hard drinking, hard fisted, rough and tumble and lots of braggadocio and bombast - the bowie knife and whisky culture of people coping in relatively primitive areas. Histories give you the raw facts. This novel puts a human side onto it.
Word of the Day
Ululate - verb, intransitive [$10]
Ululate means to howl, wail.
Sentence: The Greenies will ululate unceasingly if the Copenhagen circus craters; that will be music to my ears.
The real story is yet to come out, as the media air heads write about quotes from top scientists admitting lies and hiding evidence. The real story is in the computer codes and those related e-mails that show they were doctoring data at the deepest levels to produce only "pro-warming" results. That entire field is rife with corruption in search of more and more government funding. They even admit fabricating scare stories in public to get more grant money.
All I want for Christmas is simply a collapse at Copenhagen for whatever reason. I suspect money will cause it. With the current economic situation, the wealthier countries know they can't get their voters to sent big money to the poorest nations to help them develop without existing energy sources. They might put something on paper that will be vague and full of holes. But I think that's all that will come about. That's my hope.
Actions
IFF Copenhagen collapses AND ObamaCare, too, I will become longer term bullish again.
For now I see no trading buys or sells that have a good risk-reward profile. I admit I'm not looking too hard. I'll be out all next week, so will not want big, risky positions on my books then anyway.
Uh ... what's going on with the dollar ? I thought it was consigned to the graveyard by the doomsters. Could it be that signs of economic strength in the US are bringing in demand ? Hmm ... where was that posted a few months ago ? One guess.
This is an intermediate term rally. Longer term, the dollar must go down versus all those exporter countries in Asia and other places. They've been riding on the back of the US consumer for decades. That has to balance out.
I read that a large amount of profits at large US multinational companies come from emerging markets. Good. That gave me some more comfort that I have enough exposure to those markets.
Book of the Week
The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, by Mark Twain, in AUDIO version. Mine is a BBC audio narrated by Patrick Fraley. I am now 45% through this book and I recommend it highly. The AUDIO version. The dialects of the characters are part of the crucial value of the book. An audio version produced by a good actor reading the book gives you this. Reading it in print will not.
The setting is the Mississippi river area around Illinois and Missouri circa 1830-1840. The adventures of Huck Finn bring out the culture of that regions and major issues such as freedom, slavery, and oppression, and the riverboat culture of that huge region in the US that had existed for decades as the nation moved west from the Appalachian regions to the Great Plains.
US western culture then was hard drinking, hard fisted, rough and tumble and lots of braggadocio and bombast - the bowie knife and whisky culture of people coping in relatively primitive areas. Histories give you the raw facts. This novel puts a human side onto it.
Word of the Day
Ululate - verb, intransitive [$10]
Ululate means to howl, wail.
Sentence: The Greenies will ululate unceasingly if the Copenhagen circus craters; that will be music to my ears.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Whither Now ?
The jobs number came in quite good, as this blog had expected. Friday was volatile as the initial rally brought out selling on the news. I was part of that selling, letting all my speculative positions go on the morning rip up. At some point, however, I think that real buyers will move cash into the market as their confidence in the economy must now be much better. I would not be surprised as a modest rally, but the major resistance at S&P 1200 looms large. Many early buyers will likely sell there, or near there.
The risk-reward is now not what my speculative juices need. I will wait in cash for better long prices lower, or short sales higher.
Long term, two major problems loom: ObamaCare and climate change regulations. Both can create major stagnation as they will divert huge resources to non-productive ends. Instead of investing for growth, business will be forced to spend more money to make the same things. This did happen in the 1970s. That period also saw inflation rise due to central bank errors. Whether the Fed makes errors, time will tell.
I've climbed off the bull elephant and now will wait in the shade for a new trend to develop.
Book of the Week
The Peasant Prince: Thaddeus Kosciuszko and the Age of Revolution by Alex Storzinski. This superb book is a biography of Thaddeus Kosciuszko, covering both his heroic deeds in the American Revolution as the chief of engineers for the American army and in his native Poland, where he led two revolutions for freedom. [Note: the 'sz' in his name is pronounced 'sh'.] The extremely well written book uses extensive original Polish source and American source material. Koscuiszko was truly devoted to freedom for all, even more so than American founding father Thomas Jefferson. Koscuiszko left his entire revolutionary war pay in trust to Jefferson, who was a personal friend, to use to buy freedom for slaves in America. He also led early efforts to free serfs in Poland, and the revolutionary constitution of May 3, 1791 is commemorated in the great Polish epic poem, Pan Taddeus.
I enjoyed the details in the book - letters preserved actual conversation in summary. Koscuiszko had personal contract with Franklin, Washington, Gates, and Greene, all authentic heroes of American Independence. I had not known the details of Koscuisko's crucial role in the Battle of Saratoga, which turned the tide and made American freedom assured as long as the nation could hold out. Without Koscuisko's engineering skill preparing the American defenses, that battle could have been lost.
Also, the book's details of his leadership roles in the revolutions in Poland against Russia and Prussia, as well as Napoleon's double dealings were fascinating. Eastern Europe is now an important part of NATO and the EU. Understanding the history of that region and its people's multi-century struggles for freedom is crucial for bridging the huge cultural gap. Kosciuszko is true pillar of strength for freedom - a hero of both America and Poland. This book should be read now by anyone serious about history.
I recommend this book highly. It is best available at Polonia Bookstore (where I purchased my copy) as http://www.polonia.com/ [Don't be intimidated by the Polish language - type 'Koscuiszko' into the site's search box and you'll see the book in the results. Or you can find it on http://www.amazon.com/
Word of the Day
"Numinous" - adjective [$10]
Numinous means 1. indicating a presence of divinity; 2. spiritual; 3. awe-inspiring.
Sentence: The opening ceremony to the Copenhagen conference on climate change tried to put a numinous glow onto its affairs, but perhaps simply added more proof that the entire affair is like a convention of a mass movement: money and power rule by a clique. Freedom of the common man and his prosperity is at serious risk there.
The risk-reward is now not what my speculative juices need. I will wait in cash for better long prices lower, or short sales higher.
Long term, two major problems loom: ObamaCare and climate change regulations. Both can create major stagnation as they will divert huge resources to non-productive ends. Instead of investing for growth, business will be forced to spend more money to make the same things. This did happen in the 1970s. That period also saw inflation rise due to central bank errors. Whether the Fed makes errors, time will tell.
I've climbed off the bull elephant and now will wait in the shade for a new trend to develop.
Book of the Week
The Peasant Prince: Thaddeus Kosciuszko and the Age of Revolution by Alex Storzinski. This superb book is a biography of Thaddeus Kosciuszko, covering both his heroic deeds in the American Revolution as the chief of engineers for the American army and in his native Poland, where he led two revolutions for freedom. [Note: the 'sz' in his name is pronounced 'sh'.] The extremely well written book uses extensive original Polish source and American source material. Koscuiszko was truly devoted to freedom for all, even more so than American founding father Thomas Jefferson. Koscuiszko left his entire revolutionary war pay in trust to Jefferson, who was a personal friend, to use to buy freedom for slaves in America. He also led early efforts to free serfs in Poland, and the revolutionary constitution of May 3, 1791 is commemorated in the great Polish epic poem, Pan Taddeus.
I enjoyed the details in the book - letters preserved actual conversation in summary. Koscuiszko had personal contract with Franklin, Washington, Gates, and Greene, all authentic heroes of American Independence. I had not known the details of Koscuisko's crucial role in the Battle of Saratoga, which turned the tide and made American freedom assured as long as the nation could hold out. Without Koscuisko's engineering skill preparing the American defenses, that battle could have been lost.
Also, the book's details of his leadership roles in the revolutions in Poland against Russia and Prussia, as well as Napoleon's double dealings were fascinating. Eastern Europe is now an important part of NATO and the EU. Understanding the history of that region and its people's multi-century struggles for freedom is crucial for bridging the huge cultural gap. Kosciuszko is true pillar of strength for freedom - a hero of both America and Poland. This book should be read now by anyone serious about history.
I recommend this book highly. It is best available at Polonia Bookstore (where I purchased my copy) as http://www.polonia.com/ [Don't be intimidated by the Polish language - type 'Koscuiszko' into the site's search box and you'll see the book in the results. Or you can find it on http://www.amazon.com/
Word of the Day
"Numinous" - adjective [$10]
Numinous means 1. indicating a presence of divinity; 2. spiritual; 3. awe-inspiring.
Sentence: The opening ceremony to the Copenhagen conference on climate change tried to put a numinous glow onto its affairs, but perhaps simply added more proof that the entire affair is like a convention of a mass movement: money and power rule by a clique. Freedom of the common man and his prosperity is at serious risk there.
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Fading ...
The Dubai panic is fading everywhere but in Dubai and the Gulf markets. Of course, the bulk of losses are going to be concentrated there. Who else would own an Islamic bond, but people who believe the Islamic faith. And of those, who has lots of money to invest ? Rich Arabs.
The world moves on .... the panic mongers failed to start another conflagration. A metaphor: It's tough to start a new fire when the building is soaking wet from the prior fire-fighting effort. And the world is awash in liquidity in the aftermath of the Panic of 2008.
Good economic news came out yesterday morning. On that and the containment of the Dubai defaults, during the morning dip I doubled up on the S&P Dec. call options and the HBC call options. I plan to hold these until the Friday jobs number comes out, which I expect to be good. But IF the markets ramp into that report, I'll take the sugar before the number. I am not a pig. Je ne suis pas un goinfre.
Book of the Week
Black Sea, by Neal Ascherson (1995, about 300 pages). This book is a very readable and interesting work about the cultures surrounding the Black Sea and that sea's ecology. Ascherson covers many facets of the history from the Scythians and Sarmations to the Crimea to the Don Cossacks to events in the war between Abkhazia and Georgia in 1992-3. In scope, Ascherson includes historical and cultural events from Odessa to Trebizond (NE Turkey today) around the northeastern half of the sea's shore. I think he just ran out of pages, so Turkey and its Ottoman past, the Byzantine empire and the Danube area are left out, as is Ukraine.
Ascherson is a professional writer and can tell a story well. If you have interest in this cultural crossroads of the ancient and modern world, you will enjoy this book.
Word of the Day
"Eutrophication" - noun [$10] from "Eutrophic" - adjective [$10]
Eutrophic means (of a lake, etc.) rich in nutrients and so supporting a dense plant population, the decompostion of which kills animal life by depriving it of oxygen.
Sentence: Without some controls, so much nutrient material can flow into the Black Sea from its five major rivers that eutrification can devastate fisheries in coastal waters.
The world moves on .... the panic mongers failed to start another conflagration. A metaphor: It's tough to start a new fire when the building is soaking wet from the prior fire-fighting effort. And the world is awash in liquidity in the aftermath of the Panic of 2008.
Good economic news came out yesterday morning. On that and the containment of the Dubai defaults, during the morning dip I doubled up on the S&P Dec. call options and the HBC call options. I plan to hold these until the Friday jobs number comes out, which I expect to be good. But IF the markets ramp into that report, I'll take the sugar before the number. I am not a pig. Je ne suis pas un goinfre.
Book of the Week
Black Sea, by Neal Ascherson (1995, about 300 pages). This book is a very readable and interesting work about the cultures surrounding the Black Sea and that sea's ecology. Ascherson covers many facets of the history from the Scythians and Sarmations to the Crimea to the Don Cossacks to events in the war between Abkhazia and Georgia in 1992-3. In scope, Ascherson includes historical and cultural events from Odessa to Trebizond (NE Turkey today) around the northeastern half of the sea's shore. I think he just ran out of pages, so Turkey and its Ottoman past, the Byzantine empire and the Danube area are left out, as is Ukraine.
Ascherson is a professional writer and can tell a story well. If you have interest in this cultural crossroads of the ancient and modern world, you will enjoy this book.
Word of the Day
"Eutrophication" - noun [$10] from "Eutrophic" - adjective [$10]
Eutrophic means (of a lake, etc.) rich in nutrients and so supporting a dense plant population, the decompostion of which kills animal life by depriving it of oxygen.
Sentence: Without some controls, so much nutrient material can flow into the Black Sea from its five major rivers that eutrification can devastate fisheries in coastal waters.
Monday, November 23, 2009
Books and More
Stock market futures are up for now, about 1%. Gold continues to rally. The market needs a better jobs outlook for a sustained rally, in my "humble" opinion. That might come in early December.
BBC: "Russia has now turned into a "criminal state", according to the man who was once its leading foreign investor" - Bill Browder. I hope he gets coverage and continues to push. Russia gets way too much slack in the media. It's a gangocracy.
Book of the Week
"Plagues and Peoples" by William H. McNeill. This superb book - "A book of the first importance, a truly revolutionary work" in the words of The New Yorker on the cover - is a "must read" for those interested in the broad human history. Plagues had huge influence on the development of many regions and in many historical epochs. The book also covers how people understood them in the past and dealt with them, and how the growth in population densities changed the nature of the spreading of plagues.
As simple plain history, this book provides critically important knowledge on plagues throughout the world and throughout history. For those who might want to put the current controversies about Ebola, bird flu, and swine flu into historical context, the book is a one stop read to do just that. I read it about 25 years ago and still refer to it on occasion.
Bonus Book
"Life and Fate" by Vasily Grossman. This weekend's WSJ featured this book as #1 of the five best outstanding fiction works on World War II. I read it about 25 years ago when it was first published in the west. The book had been banned by Communist ideologists, but was eventually sneaked to the west for publication. To quote from the review: "Vasily Grossman's "Life and Fate" is the "War and Peace" of Stalinism and the Great Patriotic War, as the Soviets called World War II. This deliberate act of literary homage to Tolstoy uses the Battle of Stalingrad in the place of the Battle of Borodino, and there are several parallels in construction. But the characters in "Life and Fate" and the dilemmas they face when confronted by the moral distortions of the system ... The anti-Semitism that emerged in Stalin's later years convinced Grossman of the parallels between Nazism and Stalinism. This similarity became a covert but recognizable theme in his great novel."
Reading the book helps get beyond the WW II propaganda about the "Great Patriotic War".
Word of the Day
"Feculence" - noun [$10] and "Feculent" - adjective [$10]
Feculent means full of foul matter; fecal
Sentence: The feculence of ObamaCare as manifested in the 2,000 page Senate health care bill is going to get a lot worse as various senators are bribed for votes one at a time.
BBC: "Russia has now turned into a "criminal state", according to the man who was once its leading foreign investor" - Bill Browder. I hope he gets coverage and continues to push. Russia gets way too much slack in the media. It's a gangocracy.
Book of the Week
"Plagues and Peoples" by William H. McNeill. This superb book - "A book of the first importance, a truly revolutionary work" in the words of The New Yorker on the cover - is a "must read" for those interested in the broad human history. Plagues had huge influence on the development of many regions and in many historical epochs. The book also covers how people understood them in the past and dealt with them, and how the growth in population densities changed the nature of the spreading of plagues.
As simple plain history, this book provides critically important knowledge on plagues throughout the world and throughout history. For those who might want to put the current controversies about Ebola, bird flu, and swine flu into historical context, the book is a one stop read to do just that. I read it about 25 years ago and still refer to it on occasion.
Bonus Book
"Life and Fate" by Vasily Grossman. This weekend's WSJ featured this book as #1 of the five best outstanding fiction works on World War II. I read it about 25 years ago when it was first published in the west. The book had been banned by Communist ideologists, but was eventually sneaked to the west for publication. To quote from the review: "Vasily Grossman's "Life and Fate" is the "War and Peace" of Stalinism and the Great Patriotic War, as the Soviets called World War II. This deliberate act of literary homage to Tolstoy uses the Battle of Stalingrad in the place of the Battle of Borodino, and there are several parallels in construction. But the characters in "Life and Fate" and the dilemmas they face when confronted by the moral distortions of the system ... The anti-Semitism that emerged in Stalin's later years convinced Grossman of the parallels between Nazism and Stalinism. This similarity became a covert but recognizable theme in his great novel."
Reading the book helps get beyond the WW II propaganda about the "Great Patriotic War".
Word of the Day
"Feculence" - noun [$10] and "Feculent" - adjective [$10]
Feculent means full of foul matter; fecal
Sentence: The feculence of ObamaCare as manifested in the 2,000 page Senate health care bill is going to get a lot worse as various senators are bribed for votes one at a time.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Monday Morning Ramblings
Not much is happening.
Climate change policies are grinding to a halt, as the delusions of the Greenies are running into hard costs and political reality. That Greenie "dream' will either disappear (good) or turn into a nightmare for the common man worldwide.
Obama is bloviating in China.
The Japanese economy grew better than expected, a solid 4.8%,
The Federal government is thinking about putting Guantanamo prisoners in a prison in Illinois. That's good - put them in Obama's backyard. He's foolish to bring them to the US, so let his state bear that burden.
Actions
I bought some more tax-free bonds Friday: state tax free, too, rated AA, 30 years, 10 year call, yield to call over 5%. Why do "savers" leave money in money markets when they can get these excellent rates on good credits ? These bonds are a screaming buy. By the way, this is Krypto Fund money - my long term investment fund.
Book of the Week
Uncle Tom's Cabin by Harriett Beecher Stowe. I read this book for the first time a couple of years ago, but of course, I had heard a lot about it for years. This book was published in 1852 and helped to bring to the people in the North the brutality and capriciousness of life under slavery. I have mentioned it in this place a couple months ago (September 3, 2009) as perfect example of the truth of the "philosophical thinking of David Hume and Richard Rorty on matters of empiricism and pragmatism ... that one must read "good fiction to understand the minds and feelings of others and also situations that one cannot experience with one's own senses."
The book in available in many editions, but I recommend "The Annotated Uncle Tom's Cabin", edited by Henry Louis Gates and Hollis Robbins. This edition has numerous illustrations from newspapers and books of scenes and provides excellent historical context and literary analysis. This edition is available on Amazon.com.
By the way, the book also brings out the flaws of even "good" slaveholders: when they die, the slaves can be sold at auction like other property, splitting families and mothers from children. This happened to the slaves of Thomas Jefferson. George Washington freed all his slaves and those of his wife upon their death, and he provided for their retirements. This is a good example of deeds over talk.
Word of the Day
"Dissimulation" - noun [$10]; an old one from the card file
Dissimulation means to hide under a false appearance.
Sentence: Climate change policies are the dissimulation of global economic authoritarianism under an environmental cloak. The objective is to massively increase governmental power over the lives of the common man and limit his freedom. The ruling classes want to control him like a serf on a manor.
Climate change policies are grinding to a halt, as the delusions of the Greenies are running into hard costs and political reality. That Greenie "dream' will either disappear (good) or turn into a nightmare for the common man worldwide.
Obama is bloviating in China.
The Japanese economy grew better than expected, a solid 4.8%,
The Federal government is thinking about putting Guantanamo prisoners in a prison in Illinois. That's good - put them in Obama's backyard. He's foolish to bring them to the US, so let his state bear that burden.
Actions
I bought some more tax-free bonds Friday: state tax free, too, rated AA, 30 years, 10 year call, yield to call over 5%. Why do "savers" leave money in money markets when they can get these excellent rates on good credits ? These bonds are a screaming buy. By the way, this is Krypto Fund money - my long term investment fund.
Book of the Week
Uncle Tom's Cabin by Harriett Beecher Stowe. I read this book for the first time a couple of years ago, but of course, I had heard a lot about it for years. This book was published in 1852 and helped to bring to the people in the North the brutality and capriciousness of life under slavery. I have mentioned it in this place a couple months ago (September 3, 2009) as perfect example of the truth of the "philosophical thinking of David Hume and Richard Rorty on matters of empiricism and pragmatism ... that one must read "good fiction to understand the minds and feelings of others and also situations that one cannot experience with one's own senses."
The book in available in many editions, but I recommend "The Annotated Uncle Tom's Cabin", edited by Henry Louis Gates and Hollis Robbins. This edition has numerous illustrations from newspapers and books of scenes and provides excellent historical context and literary analysis. This edition is available on Amazon.com.
By the way, the book also brings out the flaws of even "good" slaveholders: when they die, the slaves can be sold at auction like other property, splitting families and mothers from children. This happened to the slaves of Thomas Jefferson. George Washington freed all his slaves and those of his wife upon their death, and he provided for their retirements. This is a good example of deeds over talk.
Word of the Day
"Dissimulation" - noun [$10]; an old one from the card file
Dissimulation means to hide under a false appearance.
Sentence: Climate change policies are the dissimulation of global economic authoritarianism under an environmental cloak. The objective is to massively increase governmental power over the lives of the common man and limit his freedom. The ruling classes want to control him like a serf on a manor.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Why Did the Berlin Wall Fall ?
This quote from today's Book of the Week is the answer: "We do not interfere in the internal affairs of Poland. The Poles must solve their problems themselves." [Book of the Week, page 504] That was part of a press release on August 16, 1989 from the Soviet Foreign Office. To understand the fall of the Berlin Wall, you must look east to Poland and further east to the Soviet Union. In early 1989, Poland was creating the first democratic government under communism and the question was, 'Would the Soviet Union permit it ?" Or would they use the huge military forces stationed in Poland and Germany to crush it, as they had done in 1968 in Czechoslovakia.
Gorbachev was trying to reform the Soviet Union from a closed, one party state ruled by the communist party to a more pluralistic government that could have more economic growth. He refused to unleashed the KGB hardline killers and army to crush glimmers of nascent freedom in Poland. If such was ever even considered, I suspect he realized the Poles would fight. History has to give him credit for being a mostly decent man, if wrong about communism.
Without Soviet Army support, the communist party in Poland could not hold sole power - or any power in the end as it had no public support. Democracy and freedom in Poland started a true domino effect. The Communist party ruling east Germany could not hold on as both that statement quoted above showed that the Soviet Union would not fight to keep it in power and the existence of a democratic Poland further was a physical roadblock for Soviet military pressure on Germany.
A future book of the week (once I finish it) references a statement by Toqueville that for a totalitarian order, the moment of maximum danger is when they initiate the reform process. That proved true for the Leninist regime in the Soviet Union and its satellites in eastern Europe. The entire edifice was rotten and without constant effort, it would collapse. Gorbachev stopped trying to hold it together at all costs. Poland led the wave of freedom culminating the fall of the Berlin wall.
That's quite an interesting twist, no ? East German freedom owed to Polish (peaceful) freedom fighters.
Book of the Week
God's Playground - A History of Poland, volume II 1795 to present, by Norman Davies. Look at a map of all of Europe. The western nations with which most Americans are familiar represent about 1/2 of Europe. How can anyone understand Europe and its future prospects without understanding a LOT more about the eastern half ? This book helps tremendously. Very well researched and written, Davies thoroughly covers the Polish people, culture and nation-building as Poland arose like a phoenix after being swallowed by the 18th century empires of Russia, Prussia and Austria, and then later was reborn again after the immense cruelties of Hitler and Stalin jointly threatened to exterminate the Polish people.
Gorbachev was trying to reform the Soviet Union from a closed, one party state ruled by the communist party to a more pluralistic government that could have more economic growth. He refused to unleashed the KGB hardline killers and army to crush glimmers of nascent freedom in Poland. If such was ever even considered, I suspect he realized the Poles would fight. History has to give him credit for being a mostly decent man, if wrong about communism.
Without Soviet Army support, the communist party in Poland could not hold sole power - or any power in the end as it had no public support. Democracy and freedom in Poland started a true domino effect. The Communist party ruling east Germany could not hold on as both that statement quoted above showed that the Soviet Union would not fight to keep it in power and the existence of a democratic Poland further was a physical roadblock for Soviet military pressure on Germany.
A future book of the week (once I finish it) references a statement by Toqueville that for a totalitarian order, the moment of maximum danger is when they initiate the reform process. That proved true for the Leninist regime in the Soviet Union and its satellites in eastern Europe. The entire edifice was rotten and without constant effort, it would collapse. Gorbachev stopped trying to hold it together at all costs. Poland led the wave of freedom culminating the fall of the Berlin wall.
That's quite an interesting twist, no ? East German freedom owed to Polish (peaceful) freedom fighters.
Book of the Week
God's Playground - A History of Poland, volume II 1795 to present, by Norman Davies. Look at a map of all of Europe. The western nations with which most Americans are familiar represent about 1/2 of Europe. How can anyone understand Europe and its future prospects without understanding a LOT more about the eastern half ? This book helps tremendously. Very well researched and written, Davies thoroughly covers the Polish people, culture and nation-building as Poland arose like a phoenix after being swallowed by the 18th century empires of Russia, Prussia and Austria, and then later was reborn again after the immense cruelties of Hitler and Stalin jointly threatened to exterminate the Polish people.
This book helps one understand the cold war better, too. Western press reports - I remember the gist of them - completely misunderstood the nature of the postwar regime in Poland. It was a classic case of "Some A and Some B". Some A - decent men and women in the communist party and outside it trying to do whatever could work in Poland to help it recover from World War II and improve the lives of the people, and Some B - picked officials really working together with the Soviet security forces and the Soviet communist party to rule Poland as a fief for themselves. The "left" in the US saw all "A". The right saw all "B". Both were wrong.
Overall, this book is immensely valuable for its content and evenhanded treatment the history of Poland. By the way, Volume I is also excellent, covering Polish history up to 1795.
Actions
I am doing nothing. I have a large position of S&P 500 December call options and am riding this bull elephant to the next water hole. News of reasonable economic growth continues to occur and that slowly asphyxiates the remaining bears while adding to new bulls. The market can rise as that process goes on -until the bears are gone and the pool of new bulls is used up. Until then, sitting and riding one's longs is best.
Word of the Day
"Pullulate" - verb, intransitive [$10]; used by U. S. Grant in his memoirs, page 420.
Pullulate means 1. (of a seed, shoot, etc.) bud, sprout, germinate; 2. (esp. of an animal) swarm, throng, breed prolifically; 3. develop, spring up, come to life; 4. (followed by 'with') abound.
Sentence: Freedom pullulates everywhere once the chains are weakened. Recent in Iran prove this. The Iranian people want freedom, but so far, the theocrats want to retain power and are willing to kill with abandon to retain it.
Monday, November 2, 2009
A Nice Price
Price does matter in buying stocks for speculations. I want to make 50 to 100% profits on speculative capital. If I overpay for a stock, I would need a peculiarly unlikely correlation of good news and the support of momentum buyers to make a big profit. But if I buy at "a nice price", I can get my payoff with just one of those two principle boosters for a big price move.
Lately I've chosen sectors that I thing might benefit from good news that I anticipate. Then I survey the charts of stocks in those sectors to see which might be able to double on good news. How do I do that ? Easy, I just look at where the prior "normal" price level was in 2006 or 2007 before the Panic of 2008. If the economy does return to normal conditions and growth, a rapid return to those profits levels, and hence stock price, can occur or at least come close enough.
If I can't find good sectors or stocks that might double, I sometimes will shift tactics and find higher quality stocks that might go up 20%. Then I'll buy call options - usually one strike in the money and a few months of durations. Sometimes I ladder them with a few, cheaper, out of the money calls. Those can go up 50 - 100% IF my news comes through. Sometimes they go up in anticipation of the news, as occurred in September and early October. Whatever, take the sugar when it reaches your plate. Don't be a greedy pig.
If I have been a pig, I would have made next to nothing on my call options play of mid September, instead of the roughly 75% average profits that I did book.
Books of the Week
The title of today's blog is from a story in "The Bloodhounds of Broadway and other Stories by Damon Runyon". There's a companion volume, too, titled "Romance in the Roaring Forties and Other Stories by Damon Runyon". These particular collections were published in 1981 and 1986, respectively. If you've ever watched and enjoyed that great movie, "Guys and Dolls", you might appreciate that its characters and some of the plot comes from Damon Runyon stories that millions enjoyed in his newspaper columns for decades.
Runyon wrote about gamblers in New York City and their culture, using their colorful nicknames, attitudes and vocabulary and style of speech. "Guys and Dolls" borrows from "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown" which is contained in the second volume mentioned. "She is tall and thin, and has a first class shape, and her hair is light brown, going on blonde, and her eyes are like I do not know what except they are on-hundred-per-cent eyes in every respect." The "rolling for souls" ending of the story occurs in a slightly different manner than the movie, by the way.
The title of today's post is the title of story in the first volume. It's about gamblers and how they love to get "the right price", viz., odds. Specifically, they are excited about a rich Yale alumnus offering 3 to 1 odds on a rowing race with "the Harvards" as they say. Professional gambler, "Sam the Gonoph" says, "I do not know anything about boat races, and the Yalies may figure as you say, but nothing between human beings is 1 to 3. In fact, I long ago come to the conclusion that all life is 6 to 5 against." So they plunk down many G notes [$1,000 bills - yes, those existed in circulation then !] not because they like Harvard, but because "it's a nice price". The story ends spectacularly with quite a fine twist.
I recommend these books for very, very enjoyable reading. You might have to look in used book sites such as www. alibris.com or the used book offerings on Amazon.com to find them. I just looked and saw some offerings of these and other collections of Damon Runyon stories. By the way, I bought my copies in Penn Station in New York City in the 1980s when I worked on the "Street". There was a great little book store there that offered many eclectic books for riders of the Long Island Rail Road. Sigh .. it's gone now, of course.
Word of the Day
"Prosody" - noun [$10]
Prosody means 1. the theory and practice of versification; the laws of meter; 2. the study of speech rhythm.
Sentence: To understand and analyze a poem, one must consider prosody as well as simple rhymes and the meaning of the words and metaphors used. Bluntly, there's a reason why poems are written in verse.
Lately I've chosen sectors that I thing might benefit from good news that I anticipate. Then I survey the charts of stocks in those sectors to see which might be able to double on good news. How do I do that ? Easy, I just look at where the prior "normal" price level was in 2006 or 2007 before the Panic of 2008. If the economy does return to normal conditions and growth, a rapid return to those profits levels, and hence stock price, can occur or at least come close enough.
If I can't find good sectors or stocks that might double, I sometimes will shift tactics and find higher quality stocks that might go up 20%. Then I'll buy call options - usually one strike in the money and a few months of durations. Sometimes I ladder them with a few, cheaper, out of the money calls. Those can go up 50 - 100% IF my news comes through. Sometimes they go up in anticipation of the news, as occurred in September and early October. Whatever, take the sugar when it reaches your plate. Don't be a greedy pig.
If I have been a pig, I would have made next to nothing on my call options play of mid September, instead of the roughly 75% average profits that I did book.
Books of the Week
The title of today's blog is from a story in "The Bloodhounds of Broadway and other Stories by Damon Runyon". There's a companion volume, too, titled "Romance in the Roaring Forties and Other Stories by Damon Runyon". These particular collections were published in 1981 and 1986, respectively. If you've ever watched and enjoyed that great movie, "Guys and Dolls", you might appreciate that its characters and some of the plot comes from Damon Runyon stories that millions enjoyed in his newspaper columns for decades.
Runyon wrote about gamblers in New York City and their culture, using their colorful nicknames, attitudes and vocabulary and style of speech. "Guys and Dolls" borrows from "The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown" which is contained in the second volume mentioned. "She is tall and thin, and has a first class shape, and her hair is light brown, going on blonde, and her eyes are like I do not know what except they are on-hundred-per-cent eyes in every respect." The "rolling for souls" ending of the story occurs in a slightly different manner than the movie, by the way.
The title of today's post is the title of story in the first volume. It's about gamblers and how they love to get "the right price", viz., odds. Specifically, they are excited about a rich Yale alumnus offering 3 to 1 odds on a rowing race with "the Harvards" as they say. Professional gambler, "Sam the Gonoph" says, "I do not know anything about boat races, and the Yalies may figure as you say, but nothing between human beings is 1 to 3. In fact, I long ago come to the conclusion that all life is 6 to 5 against." So they plunk down many G notes [$1,000 bills - yes, those existed in circulation then !] not because they like Harvard, but because "it's a nice price". The story ends spectacularly with quite a fine twist.
I recommend these books for very, very enjoyable reading. You might have to look in used book sites such as www. alibris.com or the used book offerings on Amazon.com to find them. I just looked and saw some offerings of these and other collections of Damon Runyon stories. By the way, I bought my copies in Penn Station in New York City in the 1980s when I worked on the "Street". There was a great little book store there that offered many eclectic books for riders of the Long Island Rail Road. Sigh .. it's gone now, of course.
Word of the Day
"Prosody" - noun [$10]
Prosody means 1. the theory and practice of versification; the laws of meter; 2. the study of speech rhythm.
Sentence: To understand and analyze a poem, one must consider prosody as well as simple rhymes and the meaning of the words and metaphors used. Bluntly, there's a reason why poems are written in verse.
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