Yesterday I posed the question of whether the classic liberal political economic theory was working as it existed in the US since the 1960s. Did it produce the implied increases in happiness-utility-wealth for the common man and woman? In colloquial speech, was it a Square Deal for them ? Or not? Did the hegemonic class and their governmental bureaucratic allies live up to their express and / or implied promises?
Easily available data exist to test that question. The US Census Bureau keeps and has kept high quality statistical data about the US for decades; they've even extended those data series back to the beginning of the nation and before. This data is and was published in the Statistical Abstracts (published annually since 1878) and the companion volume Historical Statistics of the United States published in 1975 (I have a copy).
I learned about this data series at a course taken as a freshman at Harvard in 1972 from the late Sen. (then Prof.) Daniel Patrick Moynihan. He used his mind in serving the nation, and was a tough professor. You had to do the work and read the material. I did and it sunk in. [To brag a bit, the course was a mixed undergraduate-graduate level course - I did not take (many) gut courses; I wanted my money's worth.] Now, almost 40 years later, I can draw on that learning to write this blog post.
All that data is now available online. With a few clicks , I downloaded a spreadsheet: "Table 698. Median Income of Families by Type of Family in Current and Constant (2008) Dollars". To do a fair longitudinal evaluation, one must keep the sample type as fixed as possible to limit systematic drift. American demographics has changed over time. Let's study the canonical, "Ozzie and Harriet" family - the same as the "Leave It to Beaver" family: a married couple family with the husband working and the wife not in the labor force. Oh, of course she works hard taking care of the household, likely helping out in a family business, or doing many other tasks for no money compensation. Many baby boomers remember that type of family.
Were they treated to a Square Deal?
The numbers. In 1969, a median married couple family with wife not in the labor force made $46,101 in constant 2008 dollars. In 2008, that family made $48,502. The total increase over that huge 38 year span was a mere $2,401, a 5.21% gross increase over 39 years! Per annum, that is a minuscule 0.130% per year. That is NOT a Square Deal.
The numbers also show that for the two decades prior to 1969 (i., e., from 1949 to 1969), the median income for that family grew from $24,173 to $46,101, a gain of $21,928 which was 90.7% increase over the base year of 1949, or growth of 3.28% per annum. That WAS a Square Deal.
Something changed in the 1960s. The political-economic bargain between the common people and their leaders was changed ... unilaterally and possibly secretly and certainly unintended by the common man and woman. The common man and woman certainly did not bargain for that change.
Was there a secret coup? Or some insidious decaying process? Or something else going on?
Your writer will post more on this later.
Word of the Day
"Gravel" - verb usage [$10] a T. S. Eliot word
Gravel means (transitive verb) 1. to lay or strew with gravel; 2. perplex, puzzle, nonplus (from an obsolete sense of 'run (a ship) aground').
Sentence: Stagnant or declining living standards for decades gravel the common man and woman; the reality is and has been so far from the promises of the political leaders. What's going on?
Showing posts with label history. Show all posts
Showing posts with label history. Show all posts
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Monday, July 12, 2010
Another Singular Moment
I was reminded over the weekend of another singular moment in the space-time path of the United States. This one chose a path towards a unified nation where freedoms of the people - at the level of the individual human - were to dominate over the powers of the States.
Gettysburg was the place, specifically on Little Round Top, and on July 2nd, 1863 was the time. The 20th Maine regiment held the extreme left of the Union army line and the Confederates were attacking uphill in the forest amid the rocks time and again in substantial force and vigor. To prevent being outflanked, the regiment's commander, Col. Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain, had his extreme left line curve back to form an "L" to "refuse the line. That worked awhile as it make the Confederates go further & further to try to outflank. But ammunition was running out.
Chamberlain ordered a bayonet charge, swinging the short side of the "L" down like a hinged door into the flank of the advancing Confederates. Then the main line charged, downhill. The tired, thinned and weakened Confederates were swept from the field and the battle was won. This saved the Union flank and entire line, permitting them to hold the excellent ground and eventually win the battle.
Had Chamberlain been flanked and overrun, the entire Union line would have been rolled up and the army would have been force to retreat, ignominiously defeated on home ground in Pennsylvania.
BUT by winning that battle the Union army capped the Confederate advance into Pennsylvania; the Confederates retreated to Virginia.
Why is this a singular point in space-time ? Had the Confederates won, it's very likely that Lincoln would have lost the election in 1864. Grant & Sherman could not have had the time to win the needed victories in 1864 because they would have had much weaker tactical positions. Lincoln's opponent, McClellan would likely had negotiated a peace letting the Confederacy go.
Imagine the 20th century with a separate USA and CSA. All the Civil War constitutional amendments imposing the Bill of Rights onto the states would never have been enacted. The conflict between the USA and CSA likely would have continued in minor conflicts over the western territories. What about World War I and World War II ? No "united" nation, but two with different values. The likely changes are enormous. Little Round Top was a singular point in the future path of the United States, where the path to unity and individual freedom was selected over fragmentation and aristocracy.
The movie, Gettyburg, made in 1993 starring Tom Berenger, Martin Sheen and Jeff Daniels shows the key events in the battle in marvelous detail and drama. I recommend it highly.
Word of the Day
"Milieu" - noun [$10] an old one from the card file
Milieu means environment, setting.
Sentence: Some day I want to visit Gettysburg to experience its milieu, to walk on that hallowed ground, to see the fields of fire and scope of the terrain, and to see the monuments put in place by units that fought there.
Gettysburg was the place, specifically on Little Round Top, and on July 2nd, 1863 was the time. The 20th Maine regiment held the extreme left of the Union army line and the Confederates were attacking uphill in the forest amid the rocks time and again in substantial force and vigor. To prevent being outflanked, the regiment's commander, Col. Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain, had his extreme left line curve back to form an "L" to "refuse the line. That worked awhile as it make the Confederates go further & further to try to outflank. But ammunition was running out.
Chamberlain ordered a bayonet charge, swinging the short side of the "L" down like a hinged door into the flank of the advancing Confederates. Then the main line charged, downhill. The tired, thinned and weakened Confederates were swept from the field and the battle was won. This saved the Union flank and entire line, permitting them to hold the excellent ground and eventually win the battle.
Had Chamberlain been flanked and overrun, the entire Union line would have been rolled up and the army would have been force to retreat, ignominiously defeated on home ground in Pennsylvania.
BUT by winning that battle the Union army capped the Confederate advance into Pennsylvania; the Confederates retreated to Virginia.
Why is this a singular point in space-time ? Had the Confederates won, it's very likely that Lincoln would have lost the election in 1864. Grant & Sherman could not have had the time to win the needed victories in 1864 because they would have had much weaker tactical positions. Lincoln's opponent, McClellan would likely had negotiated a peace letting the Confederacy go.
Imagine the 20th century with a separate USA and CSA. All the Civil War constitutional amendments imposing the Bill of Rights onto the states would never have been enacted. The conflict between the USA and CSA likely would have continued in minor conflicts over the western territories. What about World War I and World War II ? No "united" nation, but two with different values. The likely changes are enormous. Little Round Top was a singular point in the future path of the United States, where the path to unity and individual freedom was selected over fragmentation and aristocracy.
The movie, Gettyburg, made in 1993 starring Tom Berenger, Martin Sheen and Jeff Daniels shows the key events in the battle in marvelous detail and drama. I recommend it highly.
Word of the Day
"Milieu" - noun [$10] an old one from the card file
Milieu means environment, setting.
Sentence: Some day I want to visit Gettysburg to experience its milieu, to walk on that hallowed ground, to see the fields of fire and scope of the terrain, and to see the monuments put in place by units that fought there.
Friday, July 9, 2010
255
years ago today on July 9, 1755 a singular event occurred that created the path to the future of the United States of America. In the wilderness outside Fort Duquesne one man - a French officer named Captain Daniel Hyacinth-Marie Lienard Beaujeu - stripped to his shirt like an Indian, prayed, and speaking to Indians reluctant to fight the huge British army approaching, said he alone would fight them. His courage, words, and news of a favorable location for a battle on a narrow trail, motivated them all to attack. Stripped for battle, Beaujeu ran from the fort leading a frenzied mob of mostly Indians to make history.
That's how the battle that led to the massacre of the huge, multi-thousand man column of Gen. Braddock began. This was observed by a young captive American. I reprise my recent review of a fine book covering this critical event. Here is link to the original post ->
http://viewfromthebunker.blogspot.com/2010/04/monday-meandering.html
"A new book just out - Braddock's March, by Thomas Crocker - is very good. This book covers that organization for and the actual march by a large army into the wilderness to attempt to drive the French from the area where Pittsburgh now is, to prevent the French from strangling the English colonies with a string of forts. Braddock's army is eventually crushed by the French and Indians. This battle started the French and Indian War which determined the future path of North America.
The book is very well researched, drawing mostly on letters and diaries and other first hand sources of the people involved. The crucial importance of this march and battle arise from several factors: its own significance in the start of the war, that many American leaders of the Revolutionary War got their initial military experience in it, including George Washington, and that this close contact between British officials and Americans started the tensions between Americans and British persons as Americans began to recognize their freedom would be lessened by more British control."
The book also argues convincingly that without the battle and the massacre, the future path leading to the creation of the United States of America might not have occurred. Had the British won, British power in North America would have consolidated very early, tensions that arose between colonists & the British might not have arisen, and the 13 colonies might not had started working together. Without a long war, Britain would not have needed the taxes on stamps, tea, etc. that later sparked recognition of encroachment of British power. America might have evolved like Canada.
Elsewhere I've written my thoughts on why the American Revolution occurred when it did. See -> http://viewfromthebunker.blogspot.com/2007/07/independence-day.html
I now must modify those thoughts to include this battle and the tensions and events that arose from it. The world travels in bundles of space-time paths which usually meander along in predictable paths, but singular events can change their trajectory. One such bifurcation was at the site of this battle on July 9, 1755. At that critical space-time region, the American revolution and the path to create the United States of America began.
You now know the time. What is the place ?
It's now called Braddock, Pennsylvania, about seven miles south of downtown Pittsburgh. "Today much of the site [of the battle] is occupied by the defunct U. S. Steel Edgar Thompson Monongahela Valley Steelworks". Nothing commemorates the site. "Today, however, the battlefield is empty. It is utterly forgotten except by the few pilgrims who each year go out of thier way to walk the deserted streets." [Quotes are from the book aforementioned.]
Braddock, Pennsylvania is one of the most depressed areas in Pennsylvania. This near-sacred place was featured recently on the CBS Sunday morning news -> http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/07/04/sunday/main6646176.shtml
The town has lost 90% of its population in recent years. But the town has a leader - a fighter, much like Beaujeu. Here's a quote from him: "I like to think if there's nothing else that can be taken from the Braddock story, it's that no community deserves to be abandoned, no community deserves to have their back turned on it," he said. "And that there's always an ability to increase or enhance the quality of life for the residents. In fact, I think it's, if anything, it's a moral imperative to do so."
We need to know our history, why we are who we are, and what we have now that we can build on to restore America for a better future. We all need to work for "the economic and physical restoration of the competitive spirit in the heart of America, re-instilling the 'can do' attitude in the heart of her people." Places like Braddock, PA should not depress us - they should and can motivate us when we know what they truly mean. That quote is from the mission statement of a new not-for-profit organization that two like minded friends and myself have created recently. More later on our efforts.
Word of the Day
"Juvescense" - noun [$1000] rare
Juvescense means the state of becoming young.
Sentence: (A) [from T. S. Eliot's poem, 'Gerontion'] "In juvesence of the year / came Christ the tiger." (B) In juvescence of the day July 9, 1755, the United States of America also entered juvescense, if only then a twinkle.
That's how the battle that led to the massacre of the huge, multi-thousand man column of Gen. Braddock began. This was observed by a young captive American. I reprise my recent review of a fine book covering this critical event. Here is link to the original post ->
http://viewfromthebunker.blogspot.com/2010/04/monday-meandering.html
"A new book just out - Braddock's March, by Thomas Crocker - is very good. This book covers that organization for and the actual march by a large army into the wilderness to attempt to drive the French from the area where Pittsburgh now is, to prevent the French from strangling the English colonies with a string of forts. Braddock's army is eventually crushed by the French and Indians. This battle started the French and Indian War which determined the future path of North America.
The book is very well researched, drawing mostly on letters and diaries and other first hand sources of the people involved. The crucial importance of this march and battle arise from several factors: its own significance in the start of the war, that many American leaders of the Revolutionary War got their initial military experience in it, including George Washington, and that this close contact between British officials and Americans started the tensions between Americans and British persons as Americans began to recognize their freedom would be lessened by more British control."
The book also argues convincingly that without the battle and the massacre, the future path leading to the creation of the United States of America might not have occurred. Had the British won, British power in North America would have consolidated very early, tensions that arose between colonists & the British might not have arisen, and the 13 colonies might not had started working together. Without a long war, Britain would not have needed the taxes on stamps, tea, etc. that later sparked recognition of encroachment of British power. America might have evolved like Canada.
Elsewhere I've written my thoughts on why the American Revolution occurred when it did. See -> http://viewfromthebunker.blogspot.com/2007/07/independence-day.html
I now must modify those thoughts to include this battle and the tensions and events that arose from it. The world travels in bundles of space-time paths which usually meander along in predictable paths, but singular events can change their trajectory. One such bifurcation was at the site of this battle on July 9, 1755. At that critical space-time region, the American revolution and the path to create the United States of America began.
You now know the time. What is the place ?
It's now called Braddock, Pennsylvania, about seven miles south of downtown Pittsburgh. "Today much of the site [of the battle] is occupied by the defunct U. S. Steel Edgar Thompson Monongahela Valley Steelworks". Nothing commemorates the site. "Today, however, the battlefield is empty. It is utterly forgotten except by the few pilgrims who each year go out of thier way to walk the deserted streets." [Quotes are from the book aforementioned.]
Braddock, Pennsylvania is one of the most depressed areas in Pennsylvania. This near-sacred place was featured recently on the CBS Sunday morning news -> http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/07/04/sunday/main6646176.shtml
The town has lost 90% of its population in recent years. But the town has a leader - a fighter, much like Beaujeu. Here's a quote from him: "I like to think if there's nothing else that can be taken from the Braddock story, it's that no community deserves to be abandoned, no community deserves to have their back turned on it," he said. "And that there's always an ability to increase or enhance the quality of life for the residents. In fact, I think it's, if anything, it's a moral imperative to do so."
We need to know our history, why we are who we are, and what we have now that we can build on to restore America for a better future. We all need to work for "the economic and physical restoration of the competitive spirit in the heart of America, re-instilling the 'can do' attitude in the heart of her people." Places like Braddock, PA should not depress us - they should and can motivate us when we know what they truly mean. That quote is from the mission statement of a new not-for-profit organization that two like minded friends and myself have created recently. More later on our efforts.
Word of the Day
"Juvescense" - noun [$1000] rare
Juvescense means the state of becoming young.
Sentence: (A) [from T. S. Eliot's poem, 'Gerontion'] "In juvesence of the year / came Christ the tiger." (B) In juvescence of the day July 9, 1755, the United States of America also entered juvescense, if only then a twinkle.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Monday Meandering
First, I want to express my deepest condolences to all the people of Poland and all Polish people everywhere on Earth for the horrible tragedy of Saturday. To lose so many national leaders in so many fields at once is stunning and terrible. Considering relative sizes, we in the US must multiply the loss by 10 to get an idea what the impact of a similar loss would be. So far Poland is pulling together and mourning as one. And initial clues are that the tragedy might pull Russia and its people out of their old delusions. Putin's recognition of Stalin's guilt at Katyn started that thought a few days before; now the tragedy is forcing people in Russia to recognize Poland's loss both then and now. See this story for more commentary:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/11/poland-tragedy-katyn-russia
Markets
The Greece mess continues. Some in the EU seem to want to do something, but that Union's weak executive and weak powers are preventing acting with deliberation and speed. The markets want to see the money. Why not just let the IMF do it ?
Book of the Week
A new book just out - Braddock's March, by Thomas Crocker - is very good. This book covers that organization for and the actual march by a large army into the wilderness to attempt to drive the French from the area where Pittsburgh now is, to prevent the French from strangling the English colonies with a string of forts. Braddock's army is eventually crushed by the French and Indians. This battle started the French and Indian War which determined the future path of North America.
The book is very well researched, drawing mostly on letters and diaries and other first hand sources of the people involved. The crucial importance of this march and battle arise from several factors: its own significance in the start of the war, that many American leaders of the Revolutionary War got their initial military experience in it, including George Washington, and that this close contact between British officials and Americans started the tensions between Americans and British persons as American began to recognize their freedom would be lessened by more British control.
Word of the Day
"Vincible" - adjective [$10] literary
Vincible means that can be overcome or conquered.
Sentence: The weaknesses shown by the British in their defeat in Braddock's March might has simmered in George Washington's mind and helped him recognize that British military power was vincible in the American environment.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/11/poland-tragedy-katyn-russia
Markets
The Greece mess continues. Some in the EU seem to want to do something, but that Union's weak executive and weak powers are preventing acting with deliberation and speed. The markets want to see the money. Why not just let the IMF do it ?
Book of the Week
A new book just out - Braddock's March, by Thomas Crocker - is very good. This book covers that organization for and the actual march by a large army into the wilderness to attempt to drive the French from the area where Pittsburgh now is, to prevent the French from strangling the English colonies with a string of forts. Braddock's army is eventually crushed by the French and Indians. This battle started the French and Indian War which determined the future path of North America.
The book is very well researched, drawing mostly on letters and diaries and other first hand sources of the people involved. The crucial importance of this march and battle arise from several factors: its own significance in the start of the war, that many American leaders of the Revolutionary War got their initial military experience in it, including George Washington, and that this close contact between British officials and Americans started the tensions between Americans and British persons as American began to recognize their freedom would be lessened by more British control.
Word of the Day
"Vincible" - adjective [$10] literary
Vincible means that can be overcome or conquered.
Sentence: The weaknesses shown by the British in their defeat in Braddock's March might has simmered in George Washington's mind and helped him recognize that British military power was vincible in the American environment.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
We Are All ...
Bosons. At least our whole selves are.
There are two fundamentally different types of elementary particles: fermions and bosons. A fermion has intrinsic spin in half integral amounts: 1/2, 3/2 and so on. A boson has integral intrinsic spin: 0, 1, 2 and so on. Intrinsic spin is the angular momentum of the particle's intrinsic self, which is a point of infinite smallness. What causes it and what that spin "is" fundamentally is not known. For now, it just "is". It's quantized in multiples of 1/2 and it is conserved.
Fermions and bosons have extremely interesting, different properties in their aggregation. We, after all, aggregations of elementary particles, so their properties of aggregation are important.
No fermion can be in the same state, place and time and otherwise, as any other fermion. They just don't like being close to each other. They repel each other. Contrapuntally, bosons love to be in the same state. They gladly lie on top of each other [ no sex jokes, please ;) ]; they can be stacked on each other in huge numbers barring other repulsive forces.
Our world exists as it does because of the fermion repulsion: without it atoms would collapse.
Light photons are bosons: that's why light's intensity in a beam can increase on and on to extremely high levels. The photons are being stacked onto each other.
What does this have to do with humans ? I'm borrowing it allegorically to describe human natures and our history through space and time.
We are bosons by our natures. Humans form communities, social organizations, towns, cities, and nations. The history and path of these organizations tend to stick together and flow though space and time like a river.
Yesterday I was working hard on my German. German is a bit odd for an Indo-European language. The grammar of Latin is closer to Polish than it is to German. Many German verbs oddly change internal vowels in tenses other than the present. The ending on their adjectives and articles have irregular endings. Germans word order is weird. Why ? In my opinion, German got heavily modified by whatever language the original inhabitants of that part of Europe had BEFORE the proto-Germans moved in (maybe 4,000 years ago or more). For all that Nazi "racial purity" bs, German is a very, very impure mutation of old Indo-European.
Both Latin and Polish are much purer descendants of old Indo-European. I joke that Polish is mostly Latin grammar with all the words changed.
About 2,001 years ago, the Roman legions of Varus were wiped out in the battle of the Teutoberg forest by the German tribes led by Arminus. That ended the Roman effort to conquer the Germanic tribes in what is now Germany. If the Romans had won and stayed, the German language today would be a lot more like French or Italian than like modern German. And I would have a lot easier time learning it.
That single event cause the "river" of Germanic history, language and culture to flow separately from the rest of the Roman empire. Without it, the German river would have merged with that of Gaul (France), Spain and Italy. The Franks who later took over Gaul were a Germanic tribe. As were the Visigoths who took Spain. But so many of the existing sedentary peoples had lived centuries under Roman rule that their original Celtic languages changed and merged with Latin, making old French, Spanish and Italian. The Germanic of the invading Franks, Visigoths, and Lombards was mostly lost over time, overwhelmed by the vulgar language of the mass of common sedentary people.
The then separated German river flowed on its own path. The German langauge remained and evolved from its older mutant form. And I suffer daily studying it.
Markets
More up yesterday. At the prodding of a commentor yesterday, I looked at some charts. To me, the market is going where I had thought it would last fall, but took an extra six months & a twist/turn that threw me off: a "return to normalcy" pricing of around 1200 on the S&P.
The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are getting closer to their old highs as they did not have the heavy financial ("fins") weights. The effective zeroing of many fins is making the S&P and Dow look worse than indices without fins. The transports back that up, too. All those are at levels that I don't want to have any more than a "normal" long positions. I still am expecting a big pullback "soon". Krypto will be "some" equities selling every few % up, adding to cash for now.
PS: Krypto checked the portfolio this morning and then told me to sell some Pacific stock index funds & put the money in cash. The Pacific funds were 5% over their standard allocation, trigger the sell. Good doggie ... here's a biscuit.
Word of the Day
"Sodality" - noun [$10]
Sodality means a confraternity or association, especially a Roman Catholic religious guild or brotherhood.
Sentence: Toqueville in his famous book, Democracy in America, written circa 1840 and based on his travels in the United States, noted the plethora of clubs, fraternities, sodalities and other social organizations that its citizens formed and joined. In other words, he observed and remarked on our highly bosonic natures. Presumably, that nature in Americans was significantly more than existed in Europe at the time. American social mobility was at work.
There are two fundamentally different types of elementary particles: fermions and bosons. A fermion has intrinsic spin in half integral amounts: 1/2, 3/2 and so on. A boson has integral intrinsic spin: 0, 1, 2 and so on. Intrinsic spin is the angular momentum of the particle's intrinsic self, which is a point of infinite smallness. What causes it and what that spin "is" fundamentally is not known. For now, it just "is". It's quantized in multiples of 1/2 and it is conserved.
Fermions and bosons have extremely interesting, different properties in their aggregation. We, after all, aggregations of elementary particles, so their properties of aggregation are important.
No fermion can be in the same state, place and time and otherwise, as any other fermion. They just don't like being close to each other. They repel each other. Contrapuntally, bosons love to be in the same state. They gladly lie on top of each other [ no sex jokes, please ;) ]; they can be stacked on each other in huge numbers barring other repulsive forces.
Our world exists as it does because of the fermion repulsion: without it atoms would collapse.
Light photons are bosons: that's why light's intensity in a beam can increase on and on to extremely high levels. The photons are being stacked onto each other.
What does this have to do with humans ? I'm borrowing it allegorically to describe human natures and our history through space and time.
We are bosons by our natures. Humans form communities, social organizations, towns, cities, and nations. The history and path of these organizations tend to stick together and flow though space and time like a river.
Yesterday I was working hard on my German. German is a bit odd for an Indo-European language. The grammar of Latin is closer to Polish than it is to German. Many German verbs oddly change internal vowels in tenses other than the present. The ending on their adjectives and articles have irregular endings. Germans word order is weird. Why ? In my opinion, German got heavily modified by whatever language the original inhabitants of that part of Europe had BEFORE the proto-Germans moved in (maybe 4,000 years ago or more). For all that Nazi "racial purity" bs, German is a very, very impure mutation of old Indo-European.
Both Latin and Polish are much purer descendants of old Indo-European. I joke that Polish is mostly Latin grammar with all the words changed.
About 2,001 years ago, the Roman legions of Varus were wiped out in the battle of the Teutoberg forest by the German tribes led by Arminus. That ended the Roman effort to conquer the Germanic tribes in what is now Germany. If the Romans had won and stayed, the German language today would be a lot more like French or Italian than like modern German. And I would have a lot easier time learning it.
That single event cause the "river" of Germanic history, language and culture to flow separately from the rest of the Roman empire. Without it, the German river would have merged with that of Gaul (France), Spain and Italy. The Franks who later took over Gaul were a Germanic tribe. As were the Visigoths who took Spain. But so many of the existing sedentary peoples had lived centuries under Roman rule that their original Celtic languages changed and merged with Latin, making old French, Spanish and Italian. The Germanic of the invading Franks, Visigoths, and Lombards was mostly lost over time, overwhelmed by the vulgar language of the mass of common sedentary people.
The then separated German river flowed on its own path. The German langauge remained and evolved from its older mutant form. And I suffer daily studying it.
Markets
More up yesterday. At the prodding of a commentor yesterday, I looked at some charts. To me, the market is going where I had thought it would last fall, but took an extra six months & a twist/turn that threw me off: a "return to normalcy" pricing of around 1200 on the S&P.
The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are getting closer to their old highs as they did not have the heavy financial ("fins") weights. The effective zeroing of many fins is making the S&P and Dow look worse than indices without fins. The transports back that up, too. All those are at levels that I don't want to have any more than a "normal" long positions. I still am expecting a big pullback "soon". Krypto will be "some" equities selling every few % up, adding to cash for now.
PS: Krypto checked the portfolio this morning and then told me to sell some Pacific stock index funds & put the money in cash. The Pacific funds were 5% over their standard allocation, trigger the sell. Good doggie ... here's a biscuit.
Word of the Day
"Sodality" - noun [$10]
Sodality means a confraternity or association, especially a Roman Catholic religious guild or brotherhood.
Sentence: Toqueville in his famous book, Democracy in America, written circa 1840 and based on his travels in the United States, noted the plethora of clubs, fraternities, sodalities and other social organizations that its citizens formed and joined. In other words, he observed and remarked on our highly bosonic natures. Presumably, that nature in Americans was significantly more than existed in Europe at the time. American social mobility was at work.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Facts Trump Fiction
For almost 200 years literature, plays and in modern times, TV and radio have created a mythos of the noble American Indian being cruelly oppressed and mistreated by the White Man. This revisionism began in the early 1800s in books and theatre and continues to this day. One need only listen to NPR awhile to hear this blather in real time. What all this re-writing lacks is any link to original sources or facts. Simply put, most of this mythos is sheer fiction.
Reading that first sentence stating the mythos reveals one internal contradiction in it. How could the White Man "mistreat" the American Indians ? They are people and had a culture and controlled the continent. The answer was given in my blog post of Columbus Day, October 12, 2009: The American Indian culture and technology was very, very primitive compared to the western European culture and technology. There was no equality of ability or capability or even of simple social organization at all.
Last week's Book of the Week (March 8 - Changing Military Patterns of the Great Plains Indians by Frank Raymond Secoy) provided a large amount of first hand information gutting the mythos to shreds. Before 1500, the American Indians had no horses and no metal tools. That means they had to walk everywhere and had no tomahawks, iron arrow points and no guns. This is irrefutable. The reality of the diffusion of the horse and guns meant that neither were present in the Great Plains in significant quantities until beginning around 1650 and the full diffusion was not complete until about 1800.
Before the horse and gun, Indian warfare used clubs and lances with hardened wooden or stone points, and bows with stone tipped arrows. The bows had little penetration power. "Armor" was folded hides to create layers or layers of hides held by glue. Sand-glue coatings gave some external hardness. With six or so layers, an arrow or lance could not penetrate. Hide shields were used and could ward off arrows.
The reality is that an Egyptian army with bronze weapons could have routed any Indian force on the Great Plains. A force of Greeks under anyone like Alexander the Great could have created a huge empire. Genghis Khan could have replicated his empire in the New World with ease. American Indian technology was just so primitive compared to anything in Europe or the Near East for 4,000 years.
The horse arrived via the Spanish and local breeding populations were large enough in the northern New Mexico area around commencing around 1650. What happened ? The Apache developed a Post Horse, Pre-Gun culture and immediately used the technical superiority to attack, kill and enslave neighboring tribes. This was not the White Man - this was the noble Indian, simply acting as people have done for millenia. The Apache simply behaved like the Mongols, Turks and other steppe peoples.
What else ? The Shoshone to the north obtained horses and did the same thing, expanding onto the Great Plains from the west. How did they obtain the horse ? By selling Indian captives as slaves to the Spanish. The "noble" American Indian was a slave merchant.
The gun arrived to the Great Plains from a long trading line stretching back to France and England: furs - primarily beaver - were traded for metal axes (tomahawks), iron pots and guns. The Spanish forbade selling guns to Indians. The French and English would sell them, hence the gun diffused from a completely different direction from the horse.
Tribes with access to guns pushed out and massacred tribes without guns. The "noble" Indian did that themselves. Tribal cultures were rather different from the woodlands to the plains. Plains Indians like the Sioux were shocked by the cruelty they saw in the woodlands Indians as those Indian mistreated, oppressed and stole their lands: burning prisoners cruelly and cannibalism was unknown to them. Those were standard practiced of the "noble" woodland Indians of the Northeast (i. e., east of the Mississippi and north of the Ohio).
I will not reproduce the first hand accounts of Indian cannibalism - they are sickening. The book provides such with documented quotes of persons who saw it.
The early Sioux had an unusual custom: they would weep when greeting strangers. This was misinterpreted by new arrivals such as the Ottawa and Huron, who thought they could easily defeat such "women". Eventually the Sioux acquired guns by training pemmican and other foods to fur traders who needed concentrated, high caloric foods for long journeys into the Canadian fur zones. Then the woodland Indian found out how wrong they were. And with guns, the Sioux were able to encroach onto the northern plains. Beginning around 1775 the Sioux acquired horses and could expand onto the entire Great Plains, pushing out indigenious tribes that depended partially on horticulture for food.
In the south the arrival of guns enabled oppressed tribes to push the Apache back. The Apache resorted to stealing horses and guns from the Spanish. This was helped by the Mexican revolution that ended in 1821 and which left a vaccuum of power in the entire Southwest.
[Aside: to those who hear hispanic baloney about how the US stole the southwest, one can note the Mexicans got independence just 14 years before Texas won its own independence. Mexico had no effective authority over that entire area, as the accounts of Apache successes when Spain's power crumbled proves.]
Over the decades, the horse and gun became available to the entire Great Plains principally from American traders from St. Louis or New Orleans. The Hollywood image of the Plains Indian culture is true, BUT that culture was a new one, being in existence only about 100 years or less. And it derived from and was entirely dependent on trade with the White Man. The entire American Indian mythos is built on sand.
This information is all available in books. TV and the Internet do a lousy job in compiling a complete or true account. One need the facts and sources records that books can provide. Last week's Book of the Week in 100 pages trumps hours upon hours of NPR, TV, and fiction accounts in plays, literature and theatre.
Read books.
Markets
Futures are down for now. I see no significant news. I am holding my puts. On further moves up, Krypto will have sell orders.
Word of the Day
"Bricolage" - noun [?? perhaps $10] a loan word from French that is now in some English dictionaries. It's NOT in the OED or any of my normal paper dictionaries. This word came to me from Woodie, one of the Epicurean campers, who saw it in "Green Days in Brunei", a book by Bruce Sterling (fiction).
Here is the French meaning for "le bricolage" : do-it-yourself; makeshift repair or job; odd jobs. In French, le bricoleur is the handyman, or a do-it-yourselfer.
Dictionary.com gives this for English now: (A) 1.a construction made of whatever materials are at hand; something created from a variety of available things; 2. (in literature) a piece created from diverse resources; 3. (in art) a piece of makeshift handiwork; 4. the use of multiple, diverse research methods. OR (B) Something made or put together using whatever materials happen to be available: "Even the decor is a bricolage, a mix of this and that" (Los Angeles Times).
The English meanings seems to use more of the sense of bric-a-brac than the original French.
From all this, I presume it's a recent adoption in English from the French and its meaning is not yet stable.
Sentence: Obama annouced a new education initiative. He now seems to be the bricoleur trying to perform some emergency bricolage with the pieces of his crumbling presidency.
Reading that first sentence stating the mythos reveals one internal contradiction in it. How could the White Man "mistreat" the American Indians ? They are people and had a culture and controlled the continent. The answer was given in my blog post of Columbus Day, October 12, 2009: The American Indian culture and technology was very, very primitive compared to the western European culture and technology. There was no equality of ability or capability or even of simple social organization at all.
Last week's Book of the Week (March 8 - Changing Military Patterns of the Great Plains Indians by Frank Raymond Secoy) provided a large amount of first hand information gutting the mythos to shreds. Before 1500, the American Indians had no horses and no metal tools. That means they had to walk everywhere and had no tomahawks, iron arrow points and no guns. This is irrefutable. The reality of the diffusion of the horse and guns meant that neither were present in the Great Plains in significant quantities until beginning around 1650 and the full diffusion was not complete until about 1800.
Before the horse and gun, Indian warfare used clubs and lances with hardened wooden or stone points, and bows with stone tipped arrows. The bows had little penetration power. "Armor" was folded hides to create layers or layers of hides held by glue. Sand-glue coatings gave some external hardness. With six or so layers, an arrow or lance could not penetrate. Hide shields were used and could ward off arrows.
The reality is that an Egyptian army with bronze weapons could have routed any Indian force on the Great Plains. A force of Greeks under anyone like Alexander the Great could have created a huge empire. Genghis Khan could have replicated his empire in the New World with ease. American Indian technology was just so primitive compared to anything in Europe or the Near East for 4,000 years.
The horse arrived via the Spanish and local breeding populations were large enough in the northern New Mexico area around commencing around 1650. What happened ? The Apache developed a Post Horse, Pre-Gun culture and immediately used the technical superiority to attack, kill and enslave neighboring tribes. This was not the White Man - this was the noble Indian, simply acting as people have done for millenia. The Apache simply behaved like the Mongols, Turks and other steppe peoples.
What else ? The Shoshone to the north obtained horses and did the same thing, expanding onto the Great Plains from the west. How did they obtain the horse ? By selling Indian captives as slaves to the Spanish. The "noble" American Indian was a slave merchant.
The gun arrived to the Great Plains from a long trading line stretching back to France and England: furs - primarily beaver - were traded for metal axes (tomahawks), iron pots and guns. The Spanish forbade selling guns to Indians. The French and English would sell them, hence the gun diffused from a completely different direction from the horse.
Tribes with access to guns pushed out and massacred tribes without guns. The "noble" Indian did that themselves. Tribal cultures were rather different from the woodlands to the plains. Plains Indians like the Sioux were shocked by the cruelty they saw in the woodlands Indians as those Indian mistreated, oppressed and stole their lands: burning prisoners cruelly and cannibalism was unknown to them. Those were standard practiced of the "noble" woodland Indians of the Northeast (i. e., east of the Mississippi and north of the Ohio).
I will not reproduce the first hand accounts of Indian cannibalism - they are sickening. The book provides such with documented quotes of persons who saw it.
The early Sioux had an unusual custom: they would weep when greeting strangers. This was misinterpreted by new arrivals such as the Ottawa and Huron, who thought they could easily defeat such "women". Eventually the Sioux acquired guns by training pemmican and other foods to fur traders who needed concentrated, high caloric foods for long journeys into the Canadian fur zones. Then the woodland Indian found out how wrong they were. And with guns, the Sioux were able to encroach onto the northern plains. Beginning around 1775 the Sioux acquired horses and could expand onto the entire Great Plains, pushing out indigenious tribes that depended partially on horticulture for food.
In the south the arrival of guns enabled oppressed tribes to push the Apache back. The Apache resorted to stealing horses and guns from the Spanish. This was helped by the Mexican revolution that ended in 1821 and which left a vaccuum of power in the entire Southwest.
[Aside: to those who hear hispanic baloney about how the US stole the southwest, one can note the Mexicans got independence just 14 years before Texas won its own independence. Mexico had no effective authority over that entire area, as the accounts of Apache successes when Spain's power crumbled proves.]
Over the decades, the horse and gun became available to the entire Great Plains principally from American traders from St. Louis or New Orleans. The Hollywood image of the Plains Indian culture is true, BUT that culture was a new one, being in existence only about 100 years or less. And it derived from and was entirely dependent on trade with the White Man. The entire American Indian mythos is built on sand.
This information is all available in books. TV and the Internet do a lousy job in compiling a complete or true account. One need the facts and sources records that books can provide. Last week's Book of the Week in 100 pages trumps hours upon hours of NPR, TV, and fiction accounts in plays, literature and theatre.
Read books.
Markets
Futures are down for now. I see no significant news. I am holding my puts. On further moves up, Krypto will have sell orders.
Word of the Day
"Bricolage" - noun [?? perhaps $10] a loan word from French that is now in some English dictionaries. It's NOT in the OED or any of my normal paper dictionaries. This word came to me from Woodie, one of the Epicurean campers, who saw it in "Green Days in Brunei", a book by Bruce Sterling (fiction).
Here is the French meaning for "le bricolage" : do-it-yourself; makeshift repair or job; odd jobs. In French, le bricoleur is the handyman, or a do-it-yourselfer.
Dictionary.com gives this for English now: (A) 1.a construction made of whatever materials are at hand; something created from a variety of available things; 2. (in literature) a piece created from diverse resources; 3. (in art) a piece of makeshift handiwork; 4. the use of multiple, diverse research methods. OR (B) Something made or put together using whatever materials happen to be available: "Even the decor is a bricolage, a mix of this and that" (Los Angeles Times).
The English meanings seems to use more of the sense of bric-a-brac than the original French.
From all this, I presume it's a recent adoption in English from the French and its meaning is not yet stable.
Sentence: Obama annouced a new education initiative. He now seems to be the bricoleur trying to perform some emergency bricolage with the pieces of his crumbling presidency.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
A Typical Wednesday
That means nothing is happening. Sighhhh.
Spring is arriving here on time. Meteorological winter ended on Sunday and the daffodils are perking up, poking their heads up in places with southern exposure.
I'll still reading Empires of the Steppes: A History of Central Asia. The book has 500+ packed pages. I just started on the times of Genghis Khan. He's a fascinating figure and leader who made a remarkable comeback. Reading about how people lived then is a dividend: in the steppes and hunting and fishing in the forests north of the steppes. Their epic tales sound a whole lot like those of the American Indians, being laced with animal metaphors. Perhaps that's no accident, as the ancestors of the American Indians came from that area of Asia.
Obama is still playing Captain Ahab, seeking to take the whole Democratic party down in his lust for his Great White Whale, viz. ObamaCare.
Regulators are looking at beefer attacks on the Euro and at naked credit default swaps. Gosh, such diligence ! It's only 18 months after the Panic of 2008. Does anyone else notice the regulators seem to care only when their own financial status is at stake ? It's obvious they care nothing about the common man.
Markets
I put on the last slug of my put position. When fully in the money, that will make my 1-2-3 Fund 300% short effectively. That's enough, IF I'm right. This might not work ...
Word of the Day
"Longanimity" - noun [$100]
Longanimity means patience, forebearing, long suffering; patient endurance of hardship, injuries or offense; forebearance.
Sentence: (A) Genghis Khan's longanimty as a vassal of Wang-khan let him survive until his forces were strong enough to survive the final betrayal that Wang-khan perpetrated against him. (B) The common American man's longanimity as Racketeer Central continues to feed on his product must soon end in a taxpayer revolt.
Spring is arriving here on time. Meteorological winter ended on Sunday and the daffodils are perking up, poking their heads up in places with southern exposure.
I'll still reading Empires of the Steppes: A History of Central Asia. The book has 500+ packed pages. I just started on the times of Genghis Khan. He's a fascinating figure and leader who made a remarkable comeback. Reading about how people lived then is a dividend: in the steppes and hunting and fishing in the forests north of the steppes. Their epic tales sound a whole lot like those of the American Indians, being laced with animal metaphors. Perhaps that's no accident, as the ancestors of the American Indians came from that area of Asia.
Obama is still playing Captain Ahab, seeking to take the whole Democratic party down in his lust for his Great White Whale, viz. ObamaCare.
Regulators are looking at beefer attacks on the Euro and at naked credit default swaps. Gosh, such diligence ! It's only 18 months after the Panic of 2008. Does anyone else notice the regulators seem to care only when their own financial status is at stake ? It's obvious they care nothing about the common man.
Markets
I put on the last slug of my put position. When fully in the money, that will make my 1-2-3 Fund 300% short effectively. That's enough, IF I'm right. This might not work ...
Word of the Day
"Longanimity" - noun [$100]
Longanimity means patience, forebearing, long suffering; patient endurance of hardship, injuries or offense; forebearance.
Sentence: (A) Genghis Khan's longanimty as a vassal of Wang-khan let him survive until his forces were strong enough to survive the final betrayal that Wang-khan perpetrated against him. (B) The common American man's longanimity as Racketeer Central continues to feed on his product must soon end in a taxpayer revolt.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Uses of Wealth
Herein I reprint a blog post from Sunday, August 19, 2007, with a current update and application.
*** Reprint Begins ***
The private enterprise system and private property [aka that Marxist term "capitalism" that I dislike] fantastically motivates people to create wealth. Some create great wealth. Here's a quote from Thucydides that sparked my thinking - perhaps I first read it referenced in Erasmus' "Praise of Folly". The quote is from the famous oration of Pericles.
"We cultivate refinement without extravagance and knowledge without effeminacy; wealth we employ more for use than for show, and place the real disgrace of poverty not in owning to the fact but in declining the struggle against it." [note 1]
Other than Bill & Melinda Gates, who among the modern mega-rich emulates the beneficence of Andrew Carnegie who donated everything to create libraries in multitudes of small towns in America, including my home town? [See below for a couple other examples] Following Pericles, his great wealth was quickly used to increase the intellectual capabilities of the entire nation. It was not hoarded in trust or a foundation to perpetuate the glory of the donor. The Gates Foundation has a fixed time limit to spend - use - all the money.
Modern rich and powerful people lobby to eliminate the rule against perpetual trusts, so they can create a new de facto nobility [not de jure as no titles can exist in America thanks to the Constitution, Article I, Section 9]. Named foundations are created that, barring stupid investments, last forever as independent institutions. Their independent boards of trustees over time can completely diverge from the donor's wishes - only the name is perpetuated. The Ford Foundation is the quintessential example.
And then I read Bill Gross in the WSJ, August 4-5, 2007 issue, page B4: "... now is the time, long overdue in fact, to admit that for the rich, for the mega-rich of this country, that enough is never enough ..." and "... "A thirty million dollar gift for a concert hall is not philanthropy, it is a Napoleonic coronation."
Much of the mega-rich seem to just want more, or to be able to brag about their "returns", hence the current infatuation with hedge funds. Or the money is spent in great shows of extravagance. Many modern mega-rich emulate dukes & princes in the past courts of Europe in their opulent parties, colossal mansions, and vast landholdings. Or endowing events and groups with the primary purpose of creating a perpetual edifice inscribed with the donor's name. Or donating to universities for fund named endowed professorships or named institutes therein. Younger scientists - those actually making most of the discoveries ... get little.
Is using the funds for increasing the capabilities of the human race ever a consideration?
...
...
*** End Reprint ***
Almost 30 months have past since that post. Unfortunately, it seems I had few readers among the rich then. Warren Buffet is giving his billions to the Gates Foundation, so maybe he did. I found an example from the recent past and a more distant example that were done prior to that post.
My original post contained an example of a gift that establish an institute to help advance the frontiers of mathematical knowledge. Last month I learned of a large gift that helps advance the humanities. Heiress Ruth Lilly gave $100 million to endow The Poetry Foundation. [NB: Its name is NOT Lilly, showing some humility and true generosity.] The foundation runs Poetry magazine and funds numerous poetry programs nationwide and provides prizes for new poetry. It is a bit controversial, as some think the money could have been better used - of course that will depend on the trustees [see http://www.slate.com/id/2240323/]. Perhaps. Maybe a time limit to distribute the funds would be a good idea. But at least it's not another named building. Btw, I subscribe to Poetry Magazine.
Recently I realized that historic preservation is another place that perhaps the wealthy could put their wealth to a fine use in the manner of Pericles' charge. In my hometown over 40 years ago a local wealthy man endowed a foundation to restore a historic section of the town and ensure it was maintained and preserved, as well as providing programs for modern people to understand the way of life that existed circa 1840 in Ohio. [Note: the name of the benefactor is nowhere excessively displayed, showing humility that Pericles would approve.]
This particular development has been quite helpful to the local economy, too. The tourism provides a fine boost for local jobs. At a time when government funding for historic preservation is under pressure, perhaps rather than send money to some university to endow some named chair for a grey eminence (and not a younger scholar), persons seeking to do something good with their wealth might consider historic preservation in their own communities. If well-designed, these provide economic help to the communities as well and cultural value.
Markets
Waiting, holding. I have no preconceived targets for this speculation. I'll just follow the trend and news. The Green-red trading rule applies now.
Word of the Day
"Ekphrasis" - noun [$10,000] from a Greek word of same spelling, meaning "a description"
Ekphrasis means the use of language to describe, or to speak on behalf of, a silent work of art.
Sentence: Poetry provides many examples of ekphrasis, perhaps the most famous being Keats' "Ode on a Grecian Urn."
*** Reprint Begins ***
The private enterprise system and private property [aka that Marxist term "capitalism" that I dislike] fantastically motivates people to create wealth. Some create great wealth. Here's a quote from Thucydides that sparked my thinking - perhaps I first read it referenced in Erasmus' "Praise of Folly". The quote is from the famous oration of Pericles.
"We cultivate refinement without extravagance and knowledge without effeminacy; wealth we employ more for use than for show, and place the real disgrace of poverty not in owning to the fact but in declining the struggle against it." [note 1]
Other than Bill & Melinda Gates, who among the modern mega-rich emulates the beneficence of Andrew Carnegie who donated everything to create libraries in multitudes of small towns in America, including my home town? [See below for a couple other examples] Following Pericles, his great wealth was quickly used to increase the intellectual capabilities of the entire nation. It was not hoarded in trust or a foundation to perpetuate the glory of the donor. The Gates Foundation has a fixed time limit to spend - use - all the money.
Modern rich and powerful people lobby to eliminate the rule against perpetual trusts, so they can create a new de facto nobility [not de jure as no titles can exist in America thanks to the Constitution, Article I, Section 9]. Named foundations are created that, barring stupid investments, last forever as independent institutions. Their independent boards of trustees over time can completely diverge from the donor's wishes - only the name is perpetuated. The Ford Foundation is the quintessential example.
And then I read Bill Gross in the WSJ, August 4-5, 2007 issue, page B4: "... now is the time, long overdue in fact, to admit that for the rich, for the mega-rich of this country, that enough is never enough ..." and "... "A thirty million dollar gift for a concert hall is not philanthropy, it is a Napoleonic coronation."
Much of the mega-rich seem to just want more, or to be able to brag about their "returns", hence the current infatuation with hedge funds. Or the money is spent in great shows of extravagance. Many modern mega-rich emulate dukes & princes in the past courts of Europe in their opulent parties, colossal mansions, and vast landholdings. Or endowing events and groups with the primary purpose of creating a perpetual edifice inscribed with the donor's name. Or donating to universities for fund named endowed professorships or named institutes therein. Younger scientists - those actually making most of the discoveries ... get little.
Is using the funds for increasing the capabilities of the human race ever a consideration?
...
1. Citation: Great Books, Vol. 5, Thucydides, page 397, section 40.
...
*** End Reprint ***
Almost 30 months have past since that post. Unfortunately, it seems I had few readers among the rich then. Warren Buffet is giving his billions to the Gates Foundation, so maybe he did. I found an example from the recent past and a more distant example that were done prior to that post.
My original post contained an example of a gift that establish an institute to help advance the frontiers of mathematical knowledge. Last month I learned of a large gift that helps advance the humanities. Heiress Ruth Lilly gave $100 million to endow The Poetry Foundation. [NB: Its name is NOT Lilly, showing some humility and true generosity.] The foundation runs Poetry magazine and funds numerous poetry programs nationwide and provides prizes for new poetry. It is a bit controversial, as some think the money could have been better used - of course that will depend on the trustees [see http://www.slate.com/id/2240323/]. Perhaps. Maybe a time limit to distribute the funds would be a good idea. But at least it's not another named building. Btw, I subscribe to Poetry Magazine.
Recently I realized that historic preservation is another place that perhaps the wealthy could put their wealth to a fine use in the manner of Pericles' charge. In my hometown over 40 years ago a local wealthy man endowed a foundation to restore a historic section of the town and ensure it was maintained and preserved, as well as providing programs for modern people to understand the way of life that existed circa 1840 in Ohio. [Note: the name of the benefactor is nowhere excessively displayed, showing humility that Pericles would approve.]
This particular development has been quite helpful to the local economy, too. The tourism provides a fine boost for local jobs. At a time when government funding for historic preservation is under pressure, perhaps rather than send money to some university to endow some named chair for a grey eminence (and not a younger scholar), persons seeking to do something good with their wealth might consider historic preservation in their own communities. If well-designed, these provide economic help to the communities as well and cultural value.
Markets
Waiting, holding. I have no preconceived targets for this speculation. I'll just follow the trend and news. The Green-red trading rule applies now.
Word of the Day
"Ekphrasis" - noun [$10,000] from a Greek word of same spelling, meaning "a description"
Ekphrasis means the use of language to describe, or to speak on behalf of, a silent work of art.
Sentence: Poetry provides many examples of ekphrasis, perhaps the most famous being Keats' "Ode on a Grecian Urn."
Monday, October 12, 2009
Celebrating Columbus Day
Today is a holiday for celebrating the discovery of the New World by the Old World. Modern revisionists who make a hobby of denigrating the civilization created and still led by European white people like to say that New World wasn't discovered, it was there all along as a home for the "native" Americans. Why do they use that term ? Because they want to be under the panoply of implied "good" things created by America, yet differentiate themselves from the European white people. After all in their view, everything bad in the world is caused by them.
Turn back the clock to 1491. What was in the undiscovered New World ?
Aztecs dominated the center of the hemisphere with a culture focused on ritual murders of captive peoples. Writing and science of the Maya civilisation had been lost, probably due to conquest.
No metalworking skills - not even copper axes. Steel tomahawks came from Europe as trade goods. There were no horses or even oxen, hence no wheel for transportation. Ships ? Nope, just canoes.
Almost no people lived on the Great Plains - hunting buffalo was very difficult without horses. Native peoples used spears and arrows tipped with crafted flint arrowheads. The skills were about the same as existed in the Old World 10,000 years earlier. "Armor" was made from folded hides worn over the upper body.
The northern hemisphere was a mass of tribes in constant warfare. I've read histories that focus on the very earliest contacts of the European with the New World in North America - both in the Southwest and south with the Spanish and in the north with the French, English and Dutch. accounts. The cultures are rather reminiscent of Germanic tribes depicted in Caesar's commentaries. Tribes fought and massacred each other to get as much land as possible for hunting, leaving a huge swath of vacant land around them.
The European gets blamed for the plagues that surely killed large numbers of New World peoples after "first contact". One area that I do know much about, viz., the Ohio area, was NOT depopulated by the plagues. The Iroquois did it, via simple genocide. A combination of the two destruction forces probably happened in most areas. A tribe was weakened with loss of half its people from plague, then the stronger neighbors could move in and wipe them out. [Reference: "The Battle for North America" by Francis Parkham who uses original French accounts of the earliest explorers.]
Plagues existed in the Old World, too. The Black Death is well known, but one can read a history book titled, "Plagues and Peoples" by William H. McNeill to see that many, many plagues swept through the Old World for thousands of years. Those arose from east and south Asia and Africa, mainly. Do we condemn those cultures for destruction of human life. Nope. They aren't the dreaded "white European".
Heck, AIDS came from black Africa. Do pundits and revisionists write about that plague as being from black Africa ? Nope. They concoct phony ways to blame it on the white man and the CIA.
The New World in 1491 was an early neolithic society with culture levels around the level of perhaps at most 4500 BC in the Old World - about 6000 years behind technologically and culturally. The discovery of the New World by the Old World lead to huge advances in human civilization, including the most important one to date, namely the creation of the United States of America, the first democratic republic of free people with no aristocracy.
Where would the world be without that discovery ? Germany would have won World war I, Bolshevism would rule north central Asia, and east Asia would be ruled by either a Japanese military empire or a Maoist theocracy or both. No forces of freedom would exist anywhere: just endless genocides and massacres. And then one of those "wonderful" nations would "discover" the New World and spread the same plagues and even more deadly technology to a primitive people.
Obviously, the world is hugely better off from the discovery of Columbus. Let's celebrate his drive to look over the horizon and find out what's out there; it was a great achievement for humanity that led to many great and wonderful events.
Actions
Nothing planned. I will go over my positions today and evaluate them for risks and reward potential.
Word of the Day
"Adventitious" - adjective [$10]
Adventitious means 1. a. acquired by accident, not inherent; b. accidental, casual; 2. added from outside; 3. Biological appearing in an unusual place or in an irregular manner; 4. Law (of property) coming from a stranger or by collateral succession rather that directly.
Sentence: The adventitious position of the western hemisphere permitted to its unexpected discovery by Columbus in 1492. Had it been 1000 miles further west, discovery may have been delayed for a century or more as all attention would have focused on the route around southern Africa to the East and its profitable trade.
Turn back the clock to 1491. What was in the undiscovered New World ?
Aztecs dominated the center of the hemisphere with a culture focused on ritual murders of captive peoples. Writing and science of the Maya civilisation had been lost, probably due to conquest.
No metalworking skills - not even copper axes. Steel tomahawks came from Europe as trade goods. There were no horses or even oxen, hence no wheel for transportation. Ships ? Nope, just canoes.
Almost no people lived on the Great Plains - hunting buffalo was very difficult without horses. Native peoples used spears and arrows tipped with crafted flint arrowheads. The skills were about the same as existed in the Old World 10,000 years earlier. "Armor" was made from folded hides worn over the upper body.
The northern hemisphere was a mass of tribes in constant warfare. I've read histories that focus on the very earliest contacts of the European with the New World in North America - both in the Southwest and south with the Spanish and in the north with the French, English and Dutch. accounts. The cultures are rather reminiscent of Germanic tribes depicted in Caesar's commentaries. Tribes fought and massacred each other to get as much land as possible for hunting, leaving a huge swath of vacant land around them.
The European gets blamed for the plagues that surely killed large numbers of New World peoples after "first contact". One area that I do know much about, viz., the Ohio area, was NOT depopulated by the plagues. The Iroquois did it, via simple genocide. A combination of the two destruction forces probably happened in most areas. A tribe was weakened with loss of half its people from plague, then the stronger neighbors could move in and wipe them out. [Reference: "The Battle for North America" by Francis Parkham who uses original French accounts of the earliest explorers.]
Plagues existed in the Old World, too. The Black Death is well known, but one can read a history book titled, "Plagues and Peoples" by William H. McNeill to see that many, many plagues swept through the Old World for thousands of years. Those arose from east and south Asia and Africa, mainly. Do we condemn those cultures for destruction of human life. Nope. They aren't the dreaded "white European".
Heck, AIDS came from black Africa. Do pundits and revisionists write about that plague as being from black Africa ? Nope. They concoct phony ways to blame it on the white man and the CIA.
The New World in 1491 was an early neolithic society with culture levels around the level of perhaps at most 4500 BC in the Old World - about 6000 years behind technologically and culturally. The discovery of the New World by the Old World lead to huge advances in human civilization, including the most important one to date, namely the creation of the United States of America, the first democratic republic of free people with no aristocracy.
Where would the world be without that discovery ? Germany would have won World war I, Bolshevism would rule north central Asia, and east Asia would be ruled by either a Japanese military empire or a Maoist theocracy or both. No forces of freedom would exist anywhere: just endless genocides and massacres. And then one of those "wonderful" nations would "discover" the New World and spread the same plagues and even more deadly technology to a primitive people.
Obviously, the world is hugely better off from the discovery of Columbus. Let's celebrate his drive to look over the horizon and find out what's out there; it was a great achievement for humanity that led to many great and wonderful events.
Actions
Nothing planned. I will go over my positions today and evaluate them for risks and reward potential.
Word of the Day
"Adventitious" - adjective [$10]
Adventitious means 1. a. acquired by accident, not inherent; b. accidental, casual; 2. added from outside; 3. Biological appearing in an unusual place or in an irregular manner; 4. Law (of property) coming from a stranger or by collateral succession rather that directly.
Sentence: The adventitious position of the western hemisphere permitted to its unexpected discovery by Columbus in 1492. Had it been 1000 miles further west, discovery may have been delayed for a century or more as all attention would have focused on the route around southern Africa to the East and its profitable trade.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Hogs on a Diet
The hogs at the trough in the finance industry seem to be on or going on a forced diet. For decades these hogs slurped down huge pay in bonuses and "profit" shares while eventually running their firms into bankruptcy or huge losses that wiped out all the "profits" their prior pay purportedly compensated them for generating. Lehmann, Bears Stearns and quintessentially, Merrill Lynch, are public examples. Large numbers of private hedge funds and buyout funds are other private examples.
Their bosses were supposed to be promoting the firms' long term value, but they had their snouts in the trough bigtime, too.
As a proponent of populist libertarianism, readers know I favor regulating the ruling classes while letting the common man have maximal freedom. And somehow regulating the hogs of finance is part of that. Europe is imposing government rules on bonuses in the finance industry.
From FT: "[UK Prime Minister] Gordon Brown has pledged tough action to clamp down on excessive remuneration for bankers as part of an international effort to rectify the systemic weakness that led to the global financial crisis. The prime minister said in an interview with the Financial Times that pay and bonuses should be based on long-term success not short-term speculative gains; banks should “claw back” bankers’ rewards if their performance suffered in subsequent years; and regulators should be able to impose higher capital requirements on financial institutions."
And: "Banks will be barred from lucrative French government mandates if they fail to abide by new international guidelines on pay, President Nicolas Sarkozy warned on Tuesday as he unveiled tough domestic rules on rewards for traders. “We will not work with banks that do not apply the rules,” the French president said after a meeting with the country’s top bankers, who were summoned to the presidential Elysée Palace."
How can this be done in the US, with our tradition of individual freedom inherited from the pioneer days ?
Shareholders and investors need enhanced powers. For decades the SEC has emasculated shareholders, letting boards of directors become pawns of the CEO hogs. Large investors now know the costs of letting the hogs eat too much. I suspect given powers they will act now. There is evidence of this.
FT: "Private equity groups are facing mounting opposition from investors over their attempts to raise annex funds, which buy-out firms hope will provide fresh cash to bail out many of the companies they bought during the debt bubble. Apollo Management had been forced to drop plans to raise an annex fund, after opposition from some of the US private equity group’s biggest backers, according to people familiar with the situation. Apollo declined to comment."
These annex funds are a particularly sleazy way for the hedge funds and buyout fund to grab more fees. The managers are supposed to work hard to get the funds back to the "high water" marks before getting more fees. But what do they really do ? Create a "sister" or "annex" funds and divert all the good ideas and deal there, so they can grab for fees. Their greed and sleaze knows no bounds of propriety.
Investors now know how this is crucial to their long term profits. They'll act, if given the powers.
SEC, Congress, Fed and Treasury: get on the ball and follow Europe's lead in working out how to give shareholders and investors real powers to limit these and align them truly with the long term investors.
Memory
Today is the 70th anniversary of the beginning of World War II in Europe, as Nazi Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. In Asia, World War II began in 1931 when Japan invaded Manchuria. Let's remember the dangers of totalitarian or militarist regimes. They are true enemies of humanity and deserve no quarter.
Actions
Doing nothing. Je ne fais rien. The sell-off is orderly so far. No significant bad news has appeared. More tidbits of evidence than economic growth is returning continue to appear. This is likely a minor pullback in a bull market. Buyers are taking a breathers and perma-bears are getting a bit bolder. I'll continue to buy dips and sell rips. This week I'll prepare a list of ten or so exporters to buy in Obama Fund or Fido Fund.
Word of the Day
"Crepuscular" - noun [$10] from reading of Conrad's "The Tale"
Crepuscular means 1.a. of twilight; 1.b. dim; 2. (zoology) appearing or active in twilight.
Sentence: During crepuscular light mosquitoes become especially active as they can target one's body better.
[btw, "twilight" is the period of partial light just after sunset. Dusk is the darker period of twilight.]
[Soon I'll recommence "Word of the Day" for the other langauges I am learning.]
Their bosses were supposed to be promoting the firms' long term value, but they had their snouts in the trough bigtime, too.
As a proponent of populist libertarianism, readers know I favor regulating the ruling classes while letting the common man have maximal freedom. And somehow regulating the hogs of finance is part of that. Europe is imposing government rules on bonuses in the finance industry.
From FT: "[UK Prime Minister] Gordon Brown has pledged tough action to clamp down on excessive remuneration for bankers as part of an international effort to rectify the systemic weakness that led to the global financial crisis. The prime minister said in an interview with the Financial Times that pay and bonuses should be based on long-term success not short-term speculative gains; banks should “claw back” bankers’ rewards if their performance suffered in subsequent years; and regulators should be able to impose higher capital requirements on financial institutions."
And: "Banks will be barred from lucrative French government mandates if they fail to abide by new international guidelines on pay, President Nicolas Sarkozy warned on Tuesday as he unveiled tough domestic rules on rewards for traders. “We will not work with banks that do not apply the rules,” the French president said after a meeting with the country’s top bankers, who were summoned to the presidential Elysée Palace."
How can this be done in the US, with our tradition of individual freedom inherited from the pioneer days ?
Shareholders and investors need enhanced powers. For decades the SEC has emasculated shareholders, letting boards of directors become pawns of the CEO hogs. Large investors now know the costs of letting the hogs eat too much. I suspect given powers they will act now. There is evidence of this.
FT: "Private equity groups are facing mounting opposition from investors over their attempts to raise annex funds, which buy-out firms hope will provide fresh cash to bail out many of the companies they bought during the debt bubble. Apollo Management had been forced to drop plans to raise an annex fund, after opposition from some of the US private equity group’s biggest backers, according to people familiar with the situation. Apollo declined to comment."
These annex funds are a particularly sleazy way for the hedge funds and buyout fund to grab more fees. The managers are supposed to work hard to get the funds back to the "high water" marks before getting more fees. But what do they really do ? Create a "sister" or "annex" funds and divert all the good ideas and deal there, so they can grab for fees. Their greed and sleaze knows no bounds of propriety.
Investors now know how this is crucial to their long term profits. They'll act, if given the powers.
SEC, Congress, Fed and Treasury: get on the ball and follow Europe's lead in working out how to give shareholders and investors real powers to limit these and align them truly with the long term investors.
Memory
Today is the 70th anniversary of the beginning of World War II in Europe, as Nazi Germany invaded Poland on September 1, 1939. In Asia, World War II began in 1931 when Japan invaded Manchuria. Let's remember the dangers of totalitarian or militarist regimes. They are true enemies of humanity and deserve no quarter.
Actions
Doing nothing. Je ne fais rien. The sell-off is orderly so far. No significant bad news has appeared. More tidbits of evidence than economic growth is returning continue to appear. This is likely a minor pullback in a bull market. Buyers are taking a breathers and perma-bears are getting a bit bolder. I'll continue to buy dips and sell rips. This week I'll prepare a list of ten or so exporters to buy in Obama Fund or Fido Fund.
Word of the Day
"Crepuscular" - noun [$10] from reading of Conrad's "The Tale"
Crepuscular means 1.a. of twilight; 1.b. dim; 2. (zoology) appearing or active in twilight.
Sentence: During crepuscular light mosquitoes become especially active as they can target one's body better.
[btw, "twilight" is the period of partial light just after sunset. Dusk is the darker period of twilight.]
[Soon I'll recommence "Word of the Day" for the other langauges I am learning.]
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Redux
Bill Gross wrote an honest investment outlook for the future that provides plenty of good data and some worries about the future. See http://www.pimco.com/TopNav/Home/Default.htm and click on his investment outlook link.
The Good News
The chart on the long term trend [1952 to now] of market values compared to replacement cost of corporate assets is quite interesting. It shows that equity values are very low and that a normal "reversion to the mean" could bring a 100% increase in stock values. A chart of P/E ratios from 1871 [!!] to now shows similar "cheap" valuation. In the past those were "screaming buy" situations and huge bull markets followed.
The Worries
Corporate taxes are very low based on his chart of the ratio of tax payments to profits before taxes. And Mr. Gross worries about "a world where the government fist is being substituted for the invisible hand". Demographics are a worry, too, except in the emerging markets (other than Russia and China). In other places I've seems charts of corporate profit margins being quite high historically, too.
Counter-Worries
His worry about the loss of entrepreneurial risk taking seems misplaced, though, as he cites the exit of clowns like Chuck Prince as examples of that loss. He also cites the loss of golden parachutes, options, executive compensation, etc. But to me, those are "counter-worries" aka positives.
For almost 15 years, the CEO, CFO and the executive suite has looted untold billions from the foolish stockholders who approved compensation plans and directors in the club who rubber-stamped idiotic levels of compensation. That loos of shareholder value might be gone for our lifetime - let's hope.
My memory tells me that CEO compensation alone was amounting to 10% of corporate profits. Toss in the rest of the executive suite and all those stock options and I suspect they looted about 20% of stockholders' profits "EBH" - i. e., profits before hogs.
I read in FT that the median CFO got around $2.9 million in total compensation last year. And many did not even know enough to fund long term assets with long term debt, not commercial paper. Elsewhere, I see they were rather more pre-occupied with corporate tax shelters than productive investments or stable financing. So they deserve a huge pay cut for sheer stupidity as a class.
Conclusions
Mr. Gross concludes that corporate bonds are an excellent opportunity, which I agree is true provided one looks to absolute levels of yield and ignores the false signal of credit spreads when US Treasuries are at foolish levels due to hedging mortgage prepayments.
But the counter-worries seems to balance the worries, leaving the data showing that corporate stocks are a "screaming buy" for long term investors. Remember to use time diversification if you act on this.
Word of the Day
"Fusty" - adjective [$10]
Fusty means 1. stale, smelling, mustly, moldy; 2. stuffy, close; 3. antiquated, old-fashioned.
Sentence: Will Obama and the Democratic Congress provide new ideas and energy, or just a fusty, recycled mash of new left, statist policies from the 1970s ?
The Good News
The chart on the long term trend [1952 to now] of market values compared to replacement cost of corporate assets is quite interesting. It shows that equity values are very low and that a normal "reversion to the mean" could bring a 100% increase in stock values. A chart of P/E ratios from 1871 [!!] to now shows similar "cheap" valuation. In the past those were "screaming buy" situations and huge bull markets followed.
The Worries
Corporate taxes are very low based on his chart of the ratio of tax payments to profits before taxes. And Mr. Gross worries about "a world where the government fist is being substituted for the invisible hand". Demographics are a worry, too, except in the emerging markets (other than Russia and China). In other places I've seems charts of corporate profit margins being quite high historically, too.
Counter-Worries
His worry about the loss of entrepreneurial risk taking seems misplaced, though, as he cites the exit of clowns like Chuck Prince as examples of that loss. He also cites the loss of golden parachutes, options, executive compensation, etc. But to me, those are "counter-worries" aka positives.
For almost 15 years, the CEO, CFO and the executive suite has looted untold billions from the foolish stockholders who approved compensation plans and directors in the club who rubber-stamped idiotic levels of compensation. That loos of shareholder value might be gone for our lifetime - let's hope.
My memory tells me that CEO compensation alone was amounting to 10% of corporate profits. Toss in the rest of the executive suite and all those stock options and I suspect they looted about 20% of stockholders' profits "EBH" - i. e., profits before hogs.
I read in FT that the median CFO got around $2.9 million in total compensation last year. And many did not even know enough to fund long term assets with long term debt, not commercial paper. Elsewhere, I see they were rather more pre-occupied with corporate tax shelters than productive investments or stable financing. So they deserve a huge pay cut for sheer stupidity as a class.
Conclusions
Mr. Gross concludes that corporate bonds are an excellent opportunity, which I agree is true provided one looks to absolute levels of yield and ignores the false signal of credit spreads when US Treasuries are at foolish levels due to hedging mortgage prepayments.
But the counter-worries seems to balance the worries, leaving the data showing that corporate stocks are a "screaming buy" for long term investors. Remember to use time diversification if you act on this.
Word of the Day
"Fusty" - adjective [$10]
Fusty means 1. stale, smelling, mustly, moldy; 2. stuffy, close; 3. antiquated, old-fashioned.
Sentence: Will Obama and the Democratic Congress provide new ideas and energy, or just a fusty, recycled mash of new left, statist policies from the 1970s ?
Thursday, November 20, 2008
The Panic Continues ...
The Panic of the Rich continues.
I suspect the common man is panicking, too. Anecdotally, I was speaking to my old insurance agent in NYC, who caters to quite a gilt-edged clientele (much more than me). He told me that stunning numbers of them had, or were, going to all cash and buying fixed rate, life annuities in huge amounts.
From my 100 year wall chart of stock prices and economic indicators, the great bear market of 1973-1975 might be a good model for this bear market. Roughly, the broad averages were down about 45% from the prior year's high. The selling continued into the end of the year, then a powerful rally occurred in 1975.
A friend sent me an interesting histogram showing annual returns of the S&P from 1825 to 2007. The worst year of all was 1931, an outlier with a drop in the range of -50 to -40% Year to date, 2008 falls in this exclusive club.
To me, it seems like the bears and panic-mongers want to push for new lows. Knocking so hard on the support levels for so long usually breaks through. If there are enough of them, they can do it.
Actions
Doing nothing. I can't even re-balance Krypto Fund due to tax loss and fund exchange restrictions. Quite frustrating. I might put more money into my Alpha Fund before year end or in early 2009.
Word of the Day
"Monism" - noun [$10]
Monism means 1. any theory denying the duality of matter and mind; 2. (philosophical & theological) the doctrine that only one supreme exists; 3. a metaphysical system in which reality is viewed as unified whole.
Sentence: A propos the stock markets, one could characterise both pure fundamental and technical analysts and adherents as believers in a form of monism: denying the duality of perception and reality. Today, clearly perception rules, as it does in extremes of fear and greed. But at some time, a panic will burn out as the fuel is consumed. The lurch to reality will then begin.
I suspect the common man is panicking, too. Anecdotally, I was speaking to my old insurance agent in NYC, who caters to quite a gilt-edged clientele (much more than me). He told me that stunning numbers of them had, or were, going to all cash and buying fixed rate, life annuities in huge amounts.
Yesterday was no doubt more than tax loss selling, but it's clearly there, too.
A friend sent me an interesting histogram showing annual returns of the S&P from 1825 to 2007. The worst year of all was 1931, an outlier with a drop in the range of -50 to -40% Year to date, 2008 falls in this exclusive club.
To me, it seems like the bears and panic-mongers want to push for new lows. Knocking so hard on the support levels for so long usually breaks through. If there are enough of them, they can do it.
Actions
Doing nothing. I can't even re-balance Krypto Fund due to tax loss and fund exchange restrictions. Quite frustrating. I might put more money into my Alpha Fund before year end or in early 2009.
Word of the Day
"Monism" - noun [$10]
Monism means 1. any theory denying the duality of matter and mind; 2. (philosophical & theological) the doctrine that only one supreme exists; 3. a metaphysical system in which reality is viewed as unified whole.
Sentence: A propos the stock markets, one could characterise both pure fundamental and technical analysts and adherents as believers in a form of monism: denying the duality of perception and reality. Today, clearly perception rules, as it does in extremes of fear and greed. But at some time, a panic will burn out as the fuel is consumed. The lurch to reality will then begin.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Armistice Day - Veterans Day
Today is the 90th anniversary of the end of World War I. Reading Le Monde this morning, it is quite clear that today is a much larger event in France & Britain than in the US. Numerous major public commemorations include the leaders of both nations and issues of old injustices are raised. The history of World War I in both Europe and the US has much to teach modern man. If you ever get a chance, watch the DVDs that show the history of World War I. Much good footage exists and the events are far enough in the past that true history can be seen, without the influence of politics.
In the US, one element that is missed is that many personal and political liberties were crushed as the US entered World War I. Freedom of speech and the press was massive curtailed. People were fired, jailed or deported for expressing dissent. Supreme Court decisions legitimized that oppression. So while the propaganda machine touted a war to "Make the World Safe for Democracy", at home the same machine was crushing personal freedom. This is certainly not well known.
Those old Supreme Court decisions were not overturned until the 1950s and 1960s.
Markets
The significance of the China stimulus was brushed aside. That plan was real news and a quite bullish event.
American Express to become a bank. Sighhhh ...
I guess finance will now return to the old ways. CFOs will again match liabilities with assets as the god of the markets is now obviously not always around to make money rain from the sky.
Many ship building contracts are being cancelled. So over time that will make current ships more valuable. If the shipping companies can survive current conditions, they will be worth much more ... IFF the world survives..
Actions
Doing nothing. I have money to invest, but am waiting as I practice "time diversification".
Word of the Day
"Vidette" - noun [$10] = "vedette"
Vidette means 1. a small naval launch used for scouting; 2. a mounted sentry in advance of the outposts of an army.
Sentence: Hiding in the bunkers, I wonder if investors will miss noticing the videttes of the next great bull market ?
In the US, one element that is missed is that many personal and political liberties were crushed as the US entered World War I. Freedom of speech and the press was massive curtailed. People were fired, jailed or deported for expressing dissent. Supreme Court decisions legitimized that oppression. So while the propaganda machine touted a war to "Make the World Safe for Democracy", at home the same machine was crushing personal freedom. This is certainly not well known.
Those old Supreme Court decisions were not overturned until the 1950s and 1960s.
Markets
The significance of the China stimulus was brushed aside. That plan was real news and a quite bullish event.
American Express to become a bank. Sighhhh ...
I guess finance will now return to the old ways. CFOs will again match liabilities with assets as the god of the markets is now obviously not always around to make money rain from the sky.
Many ship building contracts are being cancelled. So over time that will make current ships more valuable. If the shipping companies can survive current conditions, they will be worth much more ... IFF the world survives..
Actions
Doing nothing. I have money to invest, but am waiting as I practice "time diversification".
Word of the Day
"Vidette" - noun [$10] = "vedette"
Vidette means 1. a small naval launch used for scouting; 2. a mounted sentry in advance of the outposts of an army.
Sentence: Hiding in the bunkers, I wonder if investors will miss noticing the videttes of the next great bull market ?
Monday, November 3, 2008
A New Month
After those fine breakfasts of fried eggs, Spam and Valveeta this weekend, I realized how I felt about the markets after the events of the past six weeks. I felt just like I did after the Crash of 1987 - a bit stunned and even more disgusted with the markets and the panic. My guess is that huge numbers of "investors" have similar feelings. Hiding in cash was the wrong move then. Is it different this time ?
Economically, the time periods are quite different. This was mostly a panic of the rich, but the underlying economic problems were twofold: (I) a gross overvaluation and overbuilding of housing primarily in CA, FL, NV, AZ and a few places like DC, and (II) an oil and commodity bubble caused by pension fund and hedge fund speculation. Both events caused real economic shocks that in normal times would have, and were, causing a slow growth period. Toss in the panic of the rich and foolish pharisaic libertarian Republicans and ... voilà ... a harsh bear market, credit crisis and recession ensue.
What is left to fix ? The price of residential real estate in CA, FL, NV, AZ is getting close to true values based on incomes of the residents. Oil prices are back to longer term trend values. To fix is whatever damage was caused by the six week credit panic and the momentum and expansion of that damage. Perceptions are damaged, too.
Perceptions can change quickly. Damage caused from the credit panic can be quickly cured with extensions of credit. The cures and cash are really being pumped rapidly into the economy. The Fed rate cuts help anyone with floating rate loans, such as Prime Rate home equity loans. And the lower oil prices save people money at every fill-up.
I think this malaise will quickly dissipate as the reality of the damage is that it's not as bad as the talk nor is it permanent. But of course, I'm an optimist.
Actions
Doing nothing. Alpha Fund had a good week and is about 150% long.
Word of the Day
"Monad" - noun [$10]; also monadic (adj.) and for sense 2. monadism (n) = monadology (n).
Monad means the number one; a unit; 2. (philosophy) any ultimate unit of being (e. g. a soul, an atom, a person, god); 3. (biological) a simple organism, e. g. one assumed as the first in a genealogy of living beings.
Monadism = Monadology means 1. the doctrine of monads as the ultimate units of being; 2. (sometimes upper case 'M') the philosophy of Leibnitz.
Sentence: The monad of the US Presidential election is the electoral vote, which was created by the framers of the Constitution as a compromise among the larger and smaller states to balance population with regions.
Economically, the time periods are quite different. This was mostly a panic of the rich, but the underlying economic problems were twofold: (I) a gross overvaluation and overbuilding of housing primarily in CA, FL, NV, AZ and a few places like DC, and (II) an oil and commodity bubble caused by pension fund and hedge fund speculation. Both events caused real economic shocks that in normal times would have, and were, causing a slow growth period. Toss in the panic of the rich and foolish pharisaic libertarian Republicans and ... voilà ... a harsh bear market, credit crisis and recession ensue.
What is left to fix ? The price of residential real estate in CA, FL, NV, AZ is getting close to true values based on incomes of the residents. Oil prices are back to longer term trend values. To fix is whatever damage was caused by the six week credit panic and the momentum and expansion of that damage. Perceptions are damaged, too.
Perceptions can change quickly. Damage caused from the credit panic can be quickly cured with extensions of credit. The cures and cash are really being pumped rapidly into the economy. The Fed rate cuts help anyone with floating rate loans, such as Prime Rate home equity loans. And the lower oil prices save people money at every fill-up.
I think this malaise will quickly dissipate as the reality of the damage is that it's not as bad as the talk nor is it permanent. But of course, I'm an optimist.
Actions
Doing nothing. Alpha Fund had a good week and is about 150% long.
Word of the Day
"Monad" - noun [$10]; also monadic (adj.) and for sense 2. monadism (n) = monadology (n).
Monad means the number one; a unit; 2. (philosophy) any ultimate unit of being (e. g. a soul, an atom, a person, god); 3. (biological) a simple organism, e. g. one assumed as the first in a genealogy of living beings.
Monadism = Monadology means 1. the doctrine of monads as the ultimate units of being; 2. (sometimes upper case 'M') the philosophy of Leibnitz.
Sentence: The monad of the US Presidential election is the electoral vote, which was created by the framers of the Constitution as a compromise among the larger and smaller states to balance population with regions.
Friday, October 24, 2008
TGIF
Financial Times today has a fine article on the fantasy world of credit default swaps. Obviously that is a “market” that should not exist, or if it does, should require 100% cash collateral for any writers of such “insurance”. See “Fantasy and Credit Insurance” under the “Markets” section in FT online - http://www.ft.com/home/us
There are two fundamental problems with such “insurance”, viz. (I) that there are really no natural writers and (II) any premium really involves two risks, the insured credit and the writer’s credit risk. These derivatives need to be regulated by the insurance regulators and real collateral put behind them, or they should be banned.
For now, persons looking at that “market” for “market” pricing are looking through grossly distorted lenses.
Another article in FT shows how derivatives are completely out of contact with markets. “The turmoil in financial markets has taken hold of the strategically important trade in long-term interest rate derivatives, pushing rates to levels once thought to be a “mathematical impossibility”.” … “On Thursday, the 30-year swap spread turned negative after briefly flirting with such levels earlier in the month. This implies investors are somehow reckoning that they are more likely to be paid back by a private counterparty than by the government, which can print money.”
“Negative swap spreads have been considered by many to be a mathematical impossibility, just like negative probabilities or negative interest rates,” said Fidelio Tata, head of interest rate derivatives strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets.
So insurers and “investors who once bought bonds based on spread over Treasuries – i. e. a true, real risk premium - over time became dependent on “swap spread” for pricing. Of course, that was stupid since a swap is between two private parties and involves the credit risk of each. What a fantasy world created by people who probably never experienced a bankruptcy, or a panic or even read a book about the history of money & credit.
Some of these derivatives reminds me of the archaic “bills of exchange” that were the source of credit in early market economies of the industrial age. Those involved several endorsements, re-endorsements and counterparties, so were rather complex. A collapse of a major merchant or commercial lender would break the chains of endoresements and could create a cascade of trouble as many, many bills of exchange suddenly could have problems and trade at great discounts. Sound familiar ? Eventually were mostly replaced by modern commercial codes with standardized lending terms. “Wall Street” and the banking industry recreated such beasts with their inherent multiparty risks in the over-the-counter derivatives market … and proceeded to ignore those extra entanglements. This gets more & more like “Lord of the Flies” every week, as we see how the “Whiz Kids” created a cesspool as they had no adult supervision or understanding of history or reality.
This will eventually work its way out as people return to the old ways … old being 20-25 years ago. So far at least, despite the turmoil & shock, huge losses from derivatives settlements has not occurred. Most of the colossal notional amounts seem to be offset.
This mess can also be laid at the feet of Elmer, aka Alan Greenspan, as his “pro-derivative” testimony helped derail regulatory efforts in the late 1990s or early 2000s – I forget the exact dates but remember the event. Of course he also helped derail regulation of hedge funds. Like his predecessor, Paul Volker – the economic neutron bomber of the 1980s – both are true cluster FUBARs if one ever existed.
Markets
Today looks like an Asian selloff led by a Sony warning that has caused more Euro-beefer and US beefer liquidations. European markets and futures are down a lot, but I am getting acclimatized to these giant swings daily and intra-day. Fear continues to rule. And I presume the public continues to sell at the bottom. Over time, the baby boomers are really going to be hurt by these “Buy High, Sell Low", greed & fear tactics.
I continue to buy some of my favorite stocks on large dips. I still have quite a bit of buying power and safety net in my Alpha Fund.
I see the UK GDP fell in Q3. Can anyone explain why the Bank of England base rate is so high ? Ditto for the ECB ?
Word of the Day
“Comptoir” - noun [$1000] from French
Comptoir means a commercial agency or factory (in foreign country).
Sentence: When one reads histories of trade and credit in Europe in the early industrial age, the comptoirs of major trading nations such as the French or Dutch appear in places like Gdansk as they were active in the Baltic grain trade.
There are two fundamental problems with such “insurance”, viz. (I) that there are really no natural writers and (II) any premium really involves two risks, the insured credit and the writer’s credit risk. These derivatives need to be regulated by the insurance regulators and real collateral put behind them, or they should be banned.
For now, persons looking at that “market” for “market” pricing are looking through grossly distorted lenses.
Another article in FT shows how derivatives are completely out of contact with markets. “The turmoil in financial markets has taken hold of the strategically important trade in long-term interest rate derivatives, pushing rates to levels once thought to be a “mathematical impossibility”.” … “On Thursday, the 30-year swap spread turned negative after briefly flirting with such levels earlier in the month. This implies investors are somehow reckoning that they are more likely to be paid back by a private counterparty than by the government, which can print money.”
“Negative swap spreads have been considered by many to be a mathematical impossibility, just like negative probabilities or negative interest rates,” said Fidelio Tata, head of interest rate derivatives strategy at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets.
So insurers and “investors who once bought bonds based on spread over Treasuries – i. e. a true, real risk premium - over time became dependent on “swap spread” for pricing. Of course, that was stupid since a swap is between two private parties and involves the credit risk of each. What a fantasy world created by people who probably never experienced a bankruptcy, or a panic or even read a book about the history of money & credit.
Some of these derivatives reminds me of the archaic “bills of exchange” that were the source of credit in early market economies of the industrial age. Those involved several endorsements, re-endorsements and counterparties, so were rather complex. A collapse of a major merchant or commercial lender would break the chains of endoresements and could create a cascade of trouble as many, many bills of exchange suddenly could have problems and trade at great discounts. Sound familiar ? Eventually were mostly replaced by modern commercial codes with standardized lending terms. “Wall Street” and the banking industry recreated such beasts with their inherent multiparty risks in the over-the-counter derivatives market … and proceeded to ignore those extra entanglements. This gets more & more like “Lord of the Flies” every week, as we see how the “Whiz Kids” created a cesspool as they had no adult supervision or understanding of history or reality.
This will eventually work its way out as people return to the old ways … old being 20-25 years ago. So far at least, despite the turmoil & shock, huge losses from derivatives settlements has not occurred. Most of the colossal notional amounts seem to be offset.
This mess can also be laid at the feet of Elmer, aka Alan Greenspan, as his “pro-derivative” testimony helped derail regulatory efforts in the late 1990s or early 2000s – I forget the exact dates but remember the event. Of course he also helped derail regulation of hedge funds. Like his predecessor, Paul Volker – the economic neutron bomber of the 1980s – both are true cluster FUBARs if one ever existed.
Markets
Today looks like an Asian selloff led by a Sony warning that has caused more Euro-beefer and US beefer liquidations. European markets and futures are down a lot, but I am getting acclimatized to these giant swings daily and intra-day. Fear continues to rule. And I presume the public continues to sell at the bottom. Over time, the baby boomers are really going to be hurt by these “Buy High, Sell Low", greed & fear tactics.
I continue to buy some of my favorite stocks on large dips. I still have quite a bit of buying power and safety net in my Alpha Fund.
I see the UK GDP fell in Q3. Can anyone explain why the Bank of England base rate is so high ? Ditto for the ECB ?
Word of the Day
“Comptoir” - noun [$1000] from French
Comptoir means a commercial agency or factory (in foreign country).
Sentence: When one reads histories of trade and credit in Europe in the early industrial age, the comptoirs of major trading nations such as the French or Dutch appear in places like Gdansk as they were active in the Baltic grain trade.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Monday Morning Ramblings
21 years ago yesterday the Great Crash occurred - the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 22% in one day, culminating a 33% drop in six weeks. Why did that occur ?
This crash was spread over a couple of weeks. Stocks were not overvalued. The Fed was somewhat accomodative, having lowered interest rates. Oil prices had been falling. The ultimate crash was triggered by Congress failing to act on the Paulson plan. But financial innovation was there again: hedge funds and credit default swaps. Those two "innovations" have almost no connection to the "real economy" of real buyers, manufacturers, lenders, and borrowers.
Perhaps this Crash was triggered by the oil market bubble of the Spring and Summer bleeding more purchasing power from strained consumers, hence analogies with the 1973-75 bear market are proper. But that was caused by hedge funds, oil swaps and pension fund speculation in commodities.
Well, I suppose the "ultimate" root cause was speculation in residential housing, cheered on by Elmer (aka Alan Greenspan), but hedge funds played an important, unnoticed role there, too, by funding the subordinated classes of those subprime mortgages securities. And credit default swaps, did, too.
Now we all know that "liquidity" is a double-edged sword. Let's just turn the clock on financial innovations back to about 1981 when lenders were lenders, and equity was equity.
Historically, the market makes major bottoms in October more often than not.
China industrial production grew 11% in Q3 despite the Olympics slowdown. China GDP grew 9%.
Actions
Today I hope to buy more stocks with new cash in Krypto Fund, IFF they clear the check. Vanguard seems rather slow in doing this - I might have to call them. I'll be buying the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund probably after the first hour, or I might wait until the usual lunch pullback.
Word of the Day
"Babbit" - noun [$10] a Mencken word.
Babbit means a materialistic, complacent businessman [from George Babbitt, a character in the novel, "Babbitt (1922) by. S. Lewis]. Mencken says the term properly fits those who also blather and preach about "service" cf. Rotary, Kiwanis, etc.
Also - babbitt - short for babbitt metal - 1. any of a group of soft alloys of tin, antimony, copper, and usu. lead used for lining bearings, etc. to diminish friction; 2. a bearing lining made of this.
Sentence: The Babbitts of America might be shocked by a lurch to the left if Obama wins and gains a filibuster-proof Senate to ram socialism into the American system.
- Stocks were greatly overvalued.
- The prior weeks had major news events - all bad - dollar dropping, Congress intervening in takeovers, Fed raising rates, Reagan shelled a Persian Gulf Iranian oil rig, and another I can't remember now.
- A financial innovation - portfolio insurance - was rampant, but not tested.
This crash was spread over a couple of weeks. Stocks were not overvalued. The Fed was somewhat accomodative, having lowered interest rates. Oil prices had been falling. The ultimate crash was triggered by Congress failing to act on the Paulson plan. But financial innovation was there again: hedge funds and credit default swaps. Those two "innovations" have almost no connection to the "real economy" of real buyers, manufacturers, lenders, and borrowers.
Perhaps this Crash was triggered by the oil market bubble of the Spring and Summer bleeding more purchasing power from strained consumers, hence analogies with the 1973-75 bear market are proper. But that was caused by hedge funds, oil swaps and pension fund speculation in commodities.
Well, I suppose the "ultimate" root cause was speculation in residential housing, cheered on by Elmer (aka Alan Greenspan), but hedge funds played an important, unnoticed role there, too, by funding the subordinated classes of those subprime mortgages securities. And credit default swaps, did, too.
Now we all know that "liquidity" is a double-edged sword. Let's just turn the clock on financial innovations back to about 1981 when lenders were lenders, and equity was equity.
Historically, the market makes major bottoms in October more often than not.
China industrial production grew 11% in Q3 despite the Olympics slowdown. China GDP grew 9%.
Actions
Today I hope to buy more stocks with new cash in Krypto Fund, IFF they clear the check. Vanguard seems rather slow in doing this - I might have to call them. I'll be buying the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund probably after the first hour, or I might wait until the usual lunch pullback.
Word of the Day
"Babbit" - noun [$10] a Mencken word.
Babbit means a materialistic, complacent businessman [from George Babbitt, a character in the novel, "Babbitt (1922) by. S. Lewis]. Mencken says the term properly fits those who also blather and preach about "service" cf. Rotary, Kiwanis, etc.
Also - babbitt - short for babbitt metal - 1. any of a group of soft alloys of tin, antimony, copper, and usu. lead used for lining bearings, etc. to diminish friction; 2. a bearing lining made of this.
Sentence: The Babbitts of America might be shocked by a lurch to the left if Obama wins and gains a filibuster-proof Senate to ram socialism into the American system.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Survival
How mankind and the modern age survived the 20th century will be a rich topic for future historians. Three books which I've read or am reading have surprised me greatly in showing the ignorance and foolishness of leaders in the West. The unmitigated evil of the three 20th century tyrants is well-known (Hitler, Stalin and Mao), but the evils of Mao is still not accepted by China as his face appears everywhere there. Perhaps the story is not yet finished.
Here are the three books:
1. Walter Lippman and the American Century by Ronald Steele;
2. Reflections on a Ravaged Century by Robert Conquest; and
3. Armed Truce by Hugh Thomas.
Imagining small modifications in the distribution of power and human ability can easily create scenarios of the physical destruction of civilization; or decline to mass disorder and turmoil to a new Dark Age; or world domination by totalitarian tyrants. Freedom and modernity did survive, barely, but at huge costs in its human capital.
Perhaps this is why society and culture seems to have stagnated since around the 1920s. With little stability, no "Golden Age" can arise.
Current world problems seem miniscule by comparison to the events of the 20th century. Compare Islamic terrorism to Stalin ... Hitler ... Mao. The ratio seems similar to comparing a wife-beater to the Mafia and its Murder, Inc. Both are evil but the level and scale of the evil is massively different. Even today's economic problems seem puny. Look at the data for the Great Depression or even the severe 1974 recession. Today's "adjustion" to high energy prices and correction of housing overbuilding and speculation seem puny, too. So far, at least, the team of Battleship Ben and Hammerin' Hank has performed well. Perhaps man has learned some lessons of history.
Word of the Day
"Obtuse" - adjective [$10] (compare to "acute")
Obtuse means lacking sharpness or quickness of sensibility; 2. not sharp, pointed or acute in form; blunt.
Sentences: (A) No one paying attention can doubt that George W. Bush is one of the most obtuse Presidents in US history. (B) Raising interest rates would be quite an obtuse weapon for controlling the price of energy, certainly causing more pain than gain.
Here are the three books:
1. Walter Lippman and the American Century by Ronald Steele;
2. Reflections on a Ravaged Century by Robert Conquest; and
3. Armed Truce by Hugh Thomas.
Imagining small modifications in the distribution of power and human ability can easily create scenarios of the physical destruction of civilization; or decline to mass disorder and turmoil to a new Dark Age; or world domination by totalitarian tyrants. Freedom and modernity did survive, barely, but at huge costs in its human capital.
Perhaps this is why society and culture seems to have stagnated since around the 1920s. With little stability, no "Golden Age" can arise.
Current world problems seem miniscule by comparison to the events of the 20th century. Compare Islamic terrorism to Stalin ... Hitler ... Mao. The ratio seems similar to comparing a wife-beater to the Mafia and its Murder, Inc. Both are evil but the level and scale of the evil is massively different. Even today's economic problems seem puny. Look at the data for the Great Depression or even the severe 1974 recession. Today's "adjustion" to high energy prices and correction of housing overbuilding and speculation seem puny, too. So far, at least, the team of Battleship Ben and Hammerin' Hank has performed well. Perhaps man has learned some lessons of history.
Word of the Day
"Obtuse" - adjective [$10] (compare to "acute")
Obtuse means lacking sharpness or quickness of sensibility; 2. not sharp, pointed or acute in form; blunt.
Sentences: (A) No one paying attention can doubt that George W. Bush is one of the most obtuse Presidents in US history. (B) Raising interest rates would be quite an obtuse weapon for controlling the price of energy, certainly causing more pain than gain.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Combating Hesperocentrism
"Hesperian" and the words formed with "Hespero-" are today's Words of the Day. Simply, "hespero-" is a Greek form meaning western. Thus, hesperocentrism is a mental state or world view dominated by western history and culture that disregards the influences of the non-western world. Principally, a hesperocentric thinks that all that has mattered in creating most of the modern world's structure is Britain, France, Spain and America, and ancient Rome and Greece. Now there is an element of truth in that, "but" it misses and distorts a lot.
Below I list six books that I have read or am now reading which have been excellent in mapping out some truly important historical and cultural patterns that one needs to know to understand where the world is now and where it might be going. These books are focused on eastern Europe and the Near East, as those areas are now quite crucial in the world's trajectory in the "phase space of humanity", viz., that's what I call the state and evolution of human history in time and space.
1. History of the Byzantine State, by George Ostrogorsky. The Roman Empire did not fall in 476 AD; it continued as a force in history and the world until 1204 AD in the east, finally being extinguished in 1453 AD. The East Roman Empire, aka, the Byzantine Empire, was truly enormously significant in Europe and the Near East for centuries.
2. The Arabs in History, by Bernard Lewis. Understanding the creation of the Arab and later Islamic empires of course matters for the entire Near East from about 650 AD to the present. This short book does a fine job providing the principle historical, cultural and religious events and issues.
3. The Mongols, by David Morgan. The Mongol invasions and empire both broke up old structures and created new ones. All Asia was impacted from about 1200 AD to mid 1300 AD and later in Russia. This force needs to be understood to see what influenced early Russia and the Near East, as well as China and India.
4. Soldiers of Fortune, by Sir John Glubb. The Mamluke Empire in Syria and Egypt from 1250 to 1500 cements the Arab and Byzantine world together with the later Ottoman Empire. This book provides a fine history and also emphasizes the structure of the warrior caste of Turkish soldiers who ran it.
5. The Ottoman Centuries: The Rise and Fall of the Turkish Empire, by Lord Kinross. This culture and empire is crucial for understanding the Near East and eastern Europe from about 1200 AD to World War I.
6. God's Playground: A History of Poland, by Norman Davies. Poland was a world power from around 1200 AD until 1700 AD and had much influence on Europe until it was temporarily extinguished as a nation in the third partition in 1795. At one period Poland was the largest nation in Europe and perhaps the most powerful. One fact brought out by this book is that "freedom" was NOT invented in the west. The freedom of the Polish "szlachty", which was an unusually broad class of nobility representing about 10% of the population, was nearly perfect. perhaps unduly perfect, as one learns in the history.
Words of the Day
"Hespero-" - see above, first paragraph. [$10,000]
"Hesperian" - noun [$10]
Hesperian means 1. western; 2. (in Greek mythology) of or concerning the Hesperides (nymphs who guarded the garden of the golden apples as the western extremity of the Earth).
"Hesperophobe" - noun [$10,000]
Hesperophobe means one who fears the west.
Sentence: "Another phase much sneered at by hesperophoes was 'the Free World' " - from "Reflections on a Ravaged Century" by Robert Conquest, pg. 165.
"Hesperophile" - noun [$10,000]
Hesperophile means one whose outlook is dominated by the west and western culture, primary that of America, Britain, France, Spain and ancient Rome and Greece.
Sentence for both: Since World War II, intellectual hesperophiles and hesperphobes, primarily conservatives for the former and liberals for the latter, have overlooked much important history and culture in eastern Europe and the Near East vital to understanding the modern world.
Below I list six books that I have read or am now reading which have been excellent in mapping out some truly important historical and cultural patterns that one needs to know to understand where the world is now and where it might be going. These books are focused on eastern Europe and the Near East, as those areas are now quite crucial in the world's trajectory in the "phase space of humanity", viz., that's what I call the state and evolution of human history in time and space.
1. History of the Byzantine State, by George Ostrogorsky. The Roman Empire did not fall in 476 AD; it continued as a force in history and the world until 1204 AD in the east, finally being extinguished in 1453 AD. The East Roman Empire, aka, the Byzantine Empire, was truly enormously significant in Europe and the Near East for centuries.
2. The Arabs in History, by Bernard Lewis. Understanding the creation of the Arab and later Islamic empires of course matters for the entire Near East from about 650 AD to the present. This short book does a fine job providing the principle historical, cultural and religious events and issues.
3. The Mongols, by David Morgan. The Mongol invasions and empire both broke up old structures and created new ones. All Asia was impacted from about 1200 AD to mid 1300 AD and later in Russia. This force needs to be understood to see what influenced early Russia and the Near East, as well as China and India.
4. Soldiers of Fortune, by Sir John Glubb. The Mamluke Empire in Syria and Egypt from 1250 to 1500 cements the Arab and Byzantine world together with the later Ottoman Empire. This book provides a fine history and also emphasizes the structure of the warrior caste of Turkish soldiers who ran it.
5. The Ottoman Centuries: The Rise and Fall of the Turkish Empire, by Lord Kinross. This culture and empire is crucial for understanding the Near East and eastern Europe from about 1200 AD to World War I.
6. God's Playground: A History of Poland, by Norman Davies. Poland was a world power from around 1200 AD until 1700 AD and had much influence on Europe until it was temporarily extinguished as a nation in the third partition in 1795. At one period Poland was the largest nation in Europe and perhaps the most powerful. One fact brought out by this book is that "freedom" was NOT invented in the west. The freedom of the Polish "szlachty", which was an unusually broad class of nobility representing about 10% of the population, was nearly perfect. perhaps unduly perfect, as one learns in the history.
Words of the Day
"Hespero-" - see above, first paragraph. [$10,000]
"Hesperian" - noun [$10]
Hesperian means 1. western; 2. (in Greek mythology) of or concerning the Hesperides (nymphs who guarded the garden of the golden apples as the western extremity of the Earth).
"Hesperophobe" - noun [$10,000]
Hesperophobe means one who fears the west.
Sentence: "Another phase much sneered at by hesperophoes was 'the Free World' " - from "Reflections on a Ravaged Century" by Robert Conquest, pg. 165.
"Hesperophile" - noun [$10,000]
Hesperophile means one whose outlook is dominated by the west and western culture, primary that of America, Britain, France, Spain and ancient Rome and Greece.
Sentence for both: Since World War II, intellectual hesperophiles and hesperphobes, primarily conservatives for the former and liberals for the latter, have overlooked much important history and culture in eastern Europe and the Near East vital to understanding the modern world.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
A New Quarter
Market
Does the new quarter bring change ? So far, no. More heavy European selling is now occuring as can often lead to a big down day. Many recent big down days begin with heavy selling in the DAX and in Europe and shifts to the US around 5AM ET. So it's obviously Europe-source telic selling.
Year to date:
Krypto Fund -3.72% ... outperforming by far. [contains about 85% of investments]
Alpha Fund -28.1% ... ugly, underperforming by far. [contains about 15% of investments]
The Alpha Fund losses are all in my "early / stinking" buys of the big banks. Ugh! Other holdings are in the green or show quite small losses. Interestingly, after this Q2 drop, my Krypto Fund model shows no need to re-balance ... so the declines are really broad around the world and across asset classes. I rebalance when a class is 5% from target allocation. That means for an asset class targeted to be 20% of the fund, I re-balance when it goes over 21% or under 19%.
World History
I just finished the interesting book, "Soldiers of Fortune" by Sir John Glubb, which is a history of the Mamluke empire which ruled Syria and Egypt via an unusual ruling warrior caste from about 1250 AD to 1517 AD. The greater point the author makes in the book is that empires tend to last only about 250 to 350 years. Some kind of sociological decline seems to be immanent in them regardless of the historical era or ruling structure. His examples are the British Empire (1700 to 1950), the Mamluke empire (1250 to 1517), the Greek Selucid empire (332 BC to 63 BC), and the Spanish American empire (1500 AD to 1800 AD).
Other examples from my memory are the Manchurian dynasty in China (1644 AD to 1912 AD), the Ming dynasty (AD 1368 to AD 1644), and the Russian Romanov dynasty (1613 AD to 1917 AD). The Roman republic lasted a bit longer, but it's phase as an "empire" beyond Italy ran from about 280 BC to 31 BC. The Roman Principate ran from about 31 BC to about 285 AD. The Austrian Empire ran from about 1650 AD to 1918 AD as a solidified state. The Ottoman Empire ran from about 1450 AD to 1918 AD - quite long - although the first 50+ years was somewhat confined geographically and the last 50+ years were decrepit. All these dates are rough and many empires such as Rome were able to mutate to survive with some modifications.
So where is the American "empire" in this time line ? I suppose that it dates to about 1900. Adding the range 250 to 350 years gives 2150 AD to 2250 AD for its lifetime and dominance. I guess the doomsayers might be a bit premature, at least per historical analogs.
Word of the Day
"Synoecism" - noun [$1000] rom Greek Antiquity
Synoecism means the union of several towns or villages into or under one capital city.
Sentence: (A) The modern New York City was formed in 1898 as a synoecism of Brooklyn, the county of New York (Manhattan and parts of the Bronx), the county of Richmond (Staten Island) and western parts of the county of Queens. (B) The Krypto Fund is a synoecism of independent investment funds with periodic rebalancing under an overall plan.
Does the new quarter bring change ? So far, no. More heavy European selling is now occuring as can often lead to a big down day. Many recent big down days begin with heavy selling in the DAX and in Europe and shifts to the US around 5AM ET. So it's obviously Europe-source telic selling.
Year to date:
Krypto Fund -3.72% ... outperforming by far. [contains about 85% of investments]
Alpha Fund -28.1% ... ugly, underperforming by far. [contains about 15% of investments]
The Alpha Fund losses are all in my "early / stinking" buys of the big banks. Ugh! Other holdings are in the green or show quite small losses. Interestingly, after this Q2 drop, my Krypto Fund model shows no need to re-balance ... so the declines are really broad around the world and across asset classes. I rebalance when a class is 5% from target allocation. That means for an asset class targeted to be 20% of the fund, I re-balance when it goes over 21% or under 19%.
World History
I just finished the interesting book, "Soldiers of Fortune" by Sir John Glubb, which is a history of the Mamluke empire which ruled Syria and Egypt via an unusual ruling warrior caste from about 1250 AD to 1517 AD. The greater point the author makes in the book is that empires tend to last only about 250 to 350 years. Some kind of sociological decline seems to be immanent in them regardless of the historical era or ruling structure. His examples are the British Empire (1700 to 1950), the Mamluke empire (1250 to 1517), the Greek Selucid empire (332 BC to 63 BC), and the Spanish American empire (1500 AD to 1800 AD).
Other examples from my memory are the Manchurian dynasty in China (1644 AD to 1912 AD), the Ming dynasty (AD 1368 to AD 1644), and the Russian Romanov dynasty (1613 AD to 1917 AD). The Roman republic lasted a bit longer, but it's phase as an "empire" beyond Italy ran from about 280 BC to 31 BC. The Roman Principate ran from about 31 BC to about 285 AD. The Austrian Empire ran from about 1650 AD to 1918 AD as a solidified state. The Ottoman Empire ran from about 1450 AD to 1918 AD - quite long - although the first 50+ years was somewhat confined geographically and the last 50+ years were decrepit. All these dates are rough and many empires such as Rome were able to mutate to survive with some modifications.
So where is the American "empire" in this time line ? I suppose that it dates to about 1900. Adding the range 250 to 350 years gives 2150 AD to 2250 AD for its lifetime and dominance. I guess the doomsayers might be a bit premature, at least per historical analogs.
Word of the Day
"Synoecism" - noun [$1000] rom Greek Antiquity
Synoecism means the union of several towns or villages into or under one capital city.
Sentence: (A) The modern New York City was formed in 1898 as a synoecism of Brooklyn, the county of New York (Manhattan and parts of the Bronx), the county of Richmond (Staten Island) and western parts of the county of Queens. (B) The Krypto Fund is a synoecism of independent investment funds with periodic rebalancing under an overall plan.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Washington's Birthday
Today is the canonical birthday of George Washington, that remarkable man who did so much to create the United States of America. Reading a biography of his gives one much insight on how this nation was created out of wilderness to become the world's leading bastion of freedom for over 300 years. And it was wilderness. The accounts of a 21 year old Washington traveling from Williamburg, Virginia on instructions from the Governor to parlay with the French near Lake Eire shows great hardship and efforts.
The Crown in London had ordered the Governor to stop French expansion into the Ohio country. Accounts of Virginia's assembly questioning and even limiting the British appointed governor's requests for funds and authorization for militia shows how the Crown's commands were quite foreign to pioneers who had effective independence for nearly 100 years. [See my blog post of July 4, 2007 for further thoughts on theory.] The correlation of forces leading to American independence was increasing even in the early 1750s. The seeds of freedom and independence had germinated and grown much on America's fecund lands.
So I recommend reading one of the many fine biographies of George Washington in remembrance of him on this day. John Marshall's is a good start as that author knew Washington personally. I am currently reading "All Cloudless Glory", a two volume set that seems very thorough.
Market
More yo-yo action as the bears were imbued with energy by the not unexpectedly poor Philly Fed index. That index's poor reading set off a bad wave of selling one month ago and the bears used it Thursady to try the darkside again. They are searching for sellers lower and trying to create more panic so they can cover shorts lower. Time will tell. Recent caution gave clues that there are real buyers lower, however. Be patient. Buy dips in good groups as they are pummeled in bear raids.
I am still slowly selling gold, using the funds to buy index ETFs in my Krypto Fund. If silver can put in a few days over $18, I'll start selling it, too. I still need to sell a lot to get my gold & silver asset allocation down to 10% in my Krypto Fund.
I also sold 1/2 of PCU yesterday for a 125% LT gain. That stock's LT gains date was hit in January, but the stock was depressed by a bear raid then. I just had too much exposure to copper. I still think PCU gets taken over at $150, and that copper will go to $5. But I try to practice risk management, too, and take partial sugar on rips.
Words of the Day
"Truculent" - adj [$10] - the first syllable is pronounced like "truck"
"Truculent" means 1. feeling or displaying ferocity; 2. deadly, destructive; 3. scathingly harsh; 4. aggressively self-assertive.
Sentence: Will Hillary resort to the usual Clintonian truculent campaign style to close ground with Obama ?
"Tergiversate" - verb, intransitive [$10]
"Tergiversate" means 1. be apostate; change one's party or principals; 2. equivocate; make conflicting or evasive statements; 3. turn one's back on something.
Sentence: As more and more Democratic superdelegates tergiversate on their prior support for Hillary, the likelihood of Obama becoming the party's nominee increases.
The Crown in London had ordered the Governor to stop French expansion into the Ohio country. Accounts of Virginia's assembly questioning and even limiting the British appointed governor's requests for funds and authorization for militia shows how the Crown's commands were quite foreign to pioneers who had effective independence for nearly 100 years. [See my blog post of July 4, 2007 for further thoughts on theory.] The correlation of forces leading to American independence was increasing even in the early 1750s. The seeds of freedom and independence had germinated and grown much on America's fecund lands.
So I recommend reading one of the many fine biographies of George Washington in remembrance of him on this day. John Marshall's is a good start as that author knew Washington personally. I am currently reading "All Cloudless Glory", a two volume set that seems very thorough.
Market
More yo-yo action as the bears were imbued with energy by the not unexpectedly poor Philly Fed index. That index's poor reading set off a bad wave of selling one month ago and the bears used it Thursady to try the darkside again. They are searching for sellers lower and trying to create more panic so they can cover shorts lower. Time will tell. Recent caution gave clues that there are real buyers lower, however. Be patient. Buy dips in good groups as they are pummeled in bear raids.
I am still slowly selling gold, using the funds to buy index ETFs in my Krypto Fund. If silver can put in a few days over $18, I'll start selling it, too. I still need to sell a lot to get my gold & silver asset allocation down to 10% in my Krypto Fund.
I also sold 1/2 of PCU yesterday for a 125% LT gain. That stock's LT gains date was hit in January, but the stock was depressed by a bear raid then. I just had too much exposure to copper. I still think PCU gets taken over at $150, and that copper will go to $5. But I try to practice risk management, too, and take partial sugar on rips.
Words of the Day
"Truculent" - adj [$10] - the first syllable is pronounced like "truck"
"Truculent" means 1. feeling or displaying ferocity; 2. deadly, destructive; 3. scathingly harsh; 4. aggressively self-assertive.
Sentence: Will Hillary resort to the usual Clintonian truculent campaign style to close ground with Obama ?
"Tergiversate" - verb, intransitive [$10]
"Tergiversate" means 1. be apostate; change one's party or principals; 2. equivocate; make conflicting or evasive statements; 3. turn one's back on something.
Sentence: As more and more Democratic superdelegates tergiversate on their prior support for Hillary, the likelihood of Obama becoming the party's nominee increases.
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