Sheesh, another Wednesday and as usual nothing is happening. Maybe there is something to that idea I tossed out a few weeks ago regarding a ruling class conspiracy to put all news either at the beginning of the week or near its end. [That's a joke !]
FT says the big beefer and private equity firm, Apollo, plans a listing. Anyone buying that stock should expect to be shorn of one's money. Apollo is planning to capitalize on the aphorism that "There's a sucker born every minute."
The markets held onto all of Monday's gains yesterday, despite early weakness, thus consolidating over the old recovery highs.
DRYS to sell a convertible bond. That firm's management runs a stock share printing machine that Daniel Drew or Jay Gould would envy.
Fido Fund has a few stocks that are approaching the range of prior, pre-Panic highs. As they get to the lower end of that range, I'll take the sugar. Fido Fund capital goes to stocks I think can strongly outperform. Once a stock price gets to its upper range, further outperformance is both less likely and also less in potential magnitude. That double-barreled blow means sell to me.
I continue to seek "screaming" buys or sells. "Have Cash, Will Speculate" is going onto my new business cards.
Word of the Day
"Ascesis" - noun [$10]
Ascesis means the practice of self-discipline.
Sentence: Ascesis is a dirty word to the DC ruling classes; they practice hog feeding bouts seriatim.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Languages
Nothing much is happening. I guess the world is returning to normalcy. The press still screeches about the dollar, climate change, "capitalism", and mostly fawns over La Grande Bouche, but I think they are just trying to retain viewers &/ readers. ['$/' means 'and/or']
The common man is hurting still, but it's not getting worse (so far).
The markets pushed to a new post-Panic high. The advance was steady and broad, so perhaps there is sufficient buying power (or covering power) to get to S&P 1200 by year end, which was my intermediate term target posted here last spring, I think.
Checking the allocations for Krypto Fund, Krypto saw no major moves to make (she pushes a butting on the computer). Good doggie, here's a tasty biscuit for your management fee. Krypto is a super fund manager - good performance for ... dog biscuits. Why pay a beefer big bucks ?
I am doing nothing, except monitoring my existing 1-2-3 Fund positions. BA and MT made good moves, but I'm holding those calls for now. I'm still looking for screaming buys/sells.
Languages
Below are my initial thoughts on the six languages that I'm trying to learn. My initial goals for year 1 are ability to understand slow speech, speak a bit and semi-literacy, which means knowing the grammar and thus having the ability to read almost anything with lots of help from the dictionary.
French - French is further along - I have already attained the year 1 goals there. Now I am focusing on speaking and listening skills. I neglected them last year in a sprint to learn attain semi-literacy. What is hard about French ? The pronunciation and aural comprehension. French has many difficult sounds for an American and has many letters in the words that are important to know for gender and endings, but silent. What is easy ? Learning a lot of the vocabulary - one can guess the meaning of a huge number of French words. English borrowed a lot of French words and Latin gave many words to both languages.
German - The hard part is the sentence word order. Germans move verbs around, split verbs into pieces and put a bit at the end of clauses, and shift the position of subject and objects. It's tough, but over time, I suppose one gets used to it. For a purportedly logical people, their language is a jumbled mess. The easy part is pronouncing the sounds. American is a Germanic lanugage in root sounds. You might be surprised, but pronouncing those long German words is rather easy. Our mouth and tongues can to it naturally. Germans has relatively few noun cases and few declensions and verbs are fairly simple. Plurals are hard, though, as they are rather irregualr.
Polish - Everything is hard in Polish. Knowing some Latin does help as Latin and Polish are both very old Indo-European languages with deep connections going back at least 4,000 years. However, the sounds are mostly different. Polish has many verb conjugations, many cases in several noun declensions, all the gender and number inflections of Latin, and has spelling and sounds changes depending on case, etc.. Plus you have to pronounce all those z, zh, sh, cz, dz, etc. sounds and palatalize lots of consonants. The saving grace is that it's rather logical in word order and grammar. Spending the time gives progress. The two years of Russian I had in college help my pronunciation. Compared to Russian, Polish is easier for an American as Polish uses the Latin alphabet plus a few Latin letters with diacritic marks for special sounds.
Italian - this is my recommendation for a fun and useful language that is relatively easy. Italian pronounces all the letters - there are a few diphthongs that have odd spelling, but those are easy to get used to as one has probably seem them in American borrowings already. Most letters have the same sound as in American. The cases and verb conjugation are easy to learn - not complex. And it's fun. One can use and see it in restaurants and movies and the culture is old and very high. Art, music, and literature all have heavy Italian influences and borrowings.
Spanish - Relatively easy, too. My Spanish is the least advanced as I must be careful about confusing what I learn with the Italian. They are rather close languages, as you might guess. Spanish does seem to have more letters that don't have the usual American sounds. I suppose one can speak to lots of people in Spanish, but do you want to ? And there is little classical literature in Spanish except Don Quixote. Perhaps my views will change as I learn more.
Latin - I had some Latin in high school 40 years ago, so this is fairly easy for me. I'm re-sparking lots of old, decrepit memory cells with a shot of vitality. Latin has lots of different verb conjugations and noun declensions, but the vocabulary is rather easy to guess, as so many words have American connections via direct borrowing or etymology. Also, listening is not important. Speaking is only party important, but helps the memory of the words. I think if one wants to be multilingual in Indo-European languages, learning Latin helps a lot. Plus no language can beat Latin in pithy aphorisms. One reads so many Latin phrases in books. A modest investment in attaining semi-literacy in Latin pays off big.
Word of the Day
"Sorites" - noun [$100] Logic.
Sorites means a form of arguments having several premises and once logical conclusion, capable of being resolved into a chain of syllogisms, the conclusion of each of which is a premise of the next.
Sentence: Arguments that use sorites must be analyzed carefully before being accepted, as a flaw in any link in the chain of syllogisms, perhaps from verbal vagueness or imprecise definitions, can cause the sorties to fail. A common fallacy in argumentation and rhetoric is the sorites "slippery slope" which relies on vague terms or faulty analogies to scare or intimidate an audience improperly into thinking - wrongly - that something bad would happen if the opposing argument prevails. These can be hard to detect when heard orally, so be wary of any sorites in speeches.
The common man is hurting still, but it's not getting worse (so far).
The markets pushed to a new post-Panic high. The advance was steady and broad, so perhaps there is sufficient buying power (or covering power) to get to S&P 1200 by year end, which was my intermediate term target posted here last spring, I think.
Checking the allocations for Krypto Fund, Krypto saw no major moves to make (she pushes a butting on the computer). Good doggie, here's a tasty biscuit for your management fee. Krypto is a super fund manager - good performance for ... dog biscuits. Why pay a beefer big bucks ?
I am doing nothing, except monitoring my existing 1-2-3 Fund positions. BA and MT made good moves, but I'm holding those calls for now. I'm still looking for screaming buys/sells.
Languages
Below are my initial thoughts on the six languages that I'm trying to learn. My initial goals for year 1 are ability to understand slow speech, speak a bit and semi-literacy, which means knowing the grammar and thus having the ability to read almost anything with lots of help from the dictionary.
French - French is further along - I have already attained the year 1 goals there. Now I am focusing on speaking and listening skills. I neglected them last year in a sprint to learn attain semi-literacy. What is hard about French ? The pronunciation and aural comprehension. French has many difficult sounds for an American and has many letters in the words that are important to know for gender and endings, but silent. What is easy ? Learning a lot of the vocabulary - one can guess the meaning of a huge number of French words. English borrowed a lot of French words and Latin gave many words to both languages.
German - The hard part is the sentence word order. Germans move verbs around, split verbs into pieces and put a bit at the end of clauses, and shift the position of subject and objects. It's tough, but over time, I suppose one gets used to it. For a purportedly logical people, their language is a jumbled mess. The easy part is pronouncing the sounds. American is a Germanic lanugage in root sounds. You might be surprised, but pronouncing those long German words is rather easy. Our mouth and tongues can to it naturally. Germans has relatively few noun cases and few declensions and verbs are fairly simple. Plurals are hard, though, as they are rather irregualr.
Polish - Everything is hard in Polish. Knowing some Latin does help as Latin and Polish are both very old Indo-European languages with deep connections going back at least 4,000 years. However, the sounds are mostly different. Polish has many verb conjugations, many cases in several noun declensions, all the gender and number inflections of Latin, and has spelling and sounds changes depending on case, etc.. Plus you have to pronounce all those z, zh, sh, cz, dz, etc. sounds and palatalize lots of consonants. The saving grace is that it's rather logical in word order and grammar. Spending the time gives progress. The two years of Russian I had in college help my pronunciation. Compared to Russian, Polish is easier for an American as Polish uses the Latin alphabet plus a few Latin letters with diacritic marks for special sounds.
Italian - this is my recommendation for a fun and useful language that is relatively easy. Italian pronounces all the letters - there are a few diphthongs that have odd spelling, but those are easy to get used to as one has probably seem them in American borrowings already. Most letters have the same sound as in American. The cases and verb conjugation are easy to learn - not complex. And it's fun. One can use and see it in restaurants and movies and the culture is old and very high. Art, music, and literature all have heavy Italian influences and borrowings.
Spanish - Relatively easy, too. My Spanish is the least advanced as I must be careful about confusing what I learn with the Italian. They are rather close languages, as you might guess. Spanish does seem to have more letters that don't have the usual American sounds. I suppose one can speak to lots of people in Spanish, but do you want to ? And there is little classical literature in Spanish except Don Quixote. Perhaps my views will change as I learn more.
Latin - I had some Latin in high school 40 years ago, so this is fairly easy for me. I'm re-sparking lots of old, decrepit memory cells with a shot of vitality. Latin has lots of different verb conjugations and noun declensions, but the vocabulary is rather easy to guess, as so many words have American connections via direct borrowing or etymology. Also, listening is not important. Speaking is only party important, but helps the memory of the words. I think if one wants to be multilingual in Indo-European languages, learning Latin helps a lot. Plus no language can beat Latin in pithy aphorisms. One reads so many Latin phrases in books. A modest investment in attaining semi-literacy in Latin pays off big.
Word of the Day
"Sorites" - noun [$100] Logic.
Sorites means a form of arguments having several premises and once logical conclusion, capable of being resolved into a chain of syllogisms, the conclusion of each of which is a premise of the next.
Sentence: Arguments that use sorites must be analyzed carefully before being accepted, as a flaw in any link in the chain of syllogisms, perhaps from verbal vagueness or imprecise definitions, can cause the sorties to fail. A common fallacy in argumentation and rhetoric is the sorites "slippery slope" which relies on vague terms or faulty analogies to scare or intimidate an audience improperly into thinking - wrongly - that something bad would happen if the opposing argument prevails. These can be hard to detect when heard orally, so be wary of any sorites in speeches.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Monday Morning Ramblings
Not much is happening.
Climate change policies are grinding to a halt, as the delusions of the Greenies are running into hard costs and political reality. That Greenie "dream' will either disappear (good) or turn into a nightmare for the common man worldwide.
Obama is bloviating in China.
The Japanese economy grew better than expected, a solid 4.8%,
The Federal government is thinking about putting Guantanamo prisoners in a prison in Illinois. That's good - put them in Obama's backyard. He's foolish to bring them to the US, so let his state bear that burden.
Actions
I bought some more tax-free bonds Friday: state tax free, too, rated AA, 30 years, 10 year call, yield to call over 5%. Why do "savers" leave money in money markets when they can get these excellent rates on good credits ? These bonds are a screaming buy. By the way, this is Krypto Fund money - my long term investment fund.
Book of the Week
Uncle Tom's Cabin by Harriett Beecher Stowe. I read this book for the first time a couple of years ago, but of course, I had heard a lot about it for years. This book was published in 1852 and helped to bring to the people in the North the brutality and capriciousness of life under slavery. I have mentioned it in this place a couple months ago (September 3, 2009) as perfect example of the truth of the "philosophical thinking of David Hume and Richard Rorty on matters of empiricism and pragmatism ... that one must read "good fiction to understand the minds and feelings of others and also situations that one cannot experience with one's own senses."
The book in available in many editions, but I recommend "The Annotated Uncle Tom's Cabin", edited by Henry Louis Gates and Hollis Robbins. This edition has numerous illustrations from newspapers and books of scenes and provides excellent historical context and literary analysis. This edition is available on Amazon.com.
By the way, the book also brings out the flaws of even "good" slaveholders: when they die, the slaves can be sold at auction like other property, splitting families and mothers from children. This happened to the slaves of Thomas Jefferson. George Washington freed all his slaves and those of his wife upon their death, and he provided for their retirements. This is a good example of deeds over talk.
Word of the Day
"Dissimulation" - noun [$10]; an old one from the card file
Dissimulation means to hide under a false appearance.
Sentence: Climate change policies are the dissimulation of global economic authoritarianism under an environmental cloak. The objective is to massively increase governmental power over the lives of the common man and limit his freedom. The ruling classes want to control him like a serf on a manor.
Climate change policies are grinding to a halt, as the delusions of the Greenies are running into hard costs and political reality. That Greenie "dream' will either disappear (good) or turn into a nightmare for the common man worldwide.
Obama is bloviating in China.
The Japanese economy grew better than expected, a solid 4.8%,
The Federal government is thinking about putting Guantanamo prisoners in a prison in Illinois. That's good - put them in Obama's backyard. He's foolish to bring them to the US, so let his state bear that burden.
Actions
I bought some more tax-free bonds Friday: state tax free, too, rated AA, 30 years, 10 year call, yield to call over 5%. Why do "savers" leave money in money markets when they can get these excellent rates on good credits ? These bonds are a screaming buy. By the way, this is Krypto Fund money - my long term investment fund.
Book of the Week
Uncle Tom's Cabin by Harriett Beecher Stowe. I read this book for the first time a couple of years ago, but of course, I had heard a lot about it for years. This book was published in 1852 and helped to bring to the people in the North the brutality and capriciousness of life under slavery. I have mentioned it in this place a couple months ago (September 3, 2009) as perfect example of the truth of the "philosophical thinking of David Hume and Richard Rorty on matters of empiricism and pragmatism ... that one must read "good fiction to understand the minds and feelings of others and also situations that one cannot experience with one's own senses."
The book in available in many editions, but I recommend "The Annotated Uncle Tom's Cabin", edited by Henry Louis Gates and Hollis Robbins. This edition has numerous illustrations from newspapers and books of scenes and provides excellent historical context and literary analysis. This edition is available on Amazon.com.
By the way, the book also brings out the flaws of even "good" slaveholders: when they die, the slaves can be sold at auction like other property, splitting families and mothers from children. This happened to the slaves of Thomas Jefferson. George Washington freed all his slaves and those of his wife upon their death, and he provided for their retirements. This is a good example of deeds over talk.
Word of the Day
"Dissimulation" - noun [$10]; an old one from the card file
Dissimulation means to hide under a false appearance.
Sentence: Climate change policies are the dissimulation of global economic authoritarianism under an environmental cloak. The objective is to massively increase governmental power over the lives of the common man and limit his freedom. The ruling classes want to control him like a serf on a manor.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Flaws in Indexing Tactics
Indexing done correctly does work very well for long term investors. The are guaranteed to perform close to the averages and pay very, very low fees for administration and management. Considered collectively, the underperformance of managed portfolios is a virtual mathematical certainty due to the fees, which add up fast. Over 20 years, paying a 1% per annum management fee amounts to 20%, which is one entire bear market. And choosing a good manager is as hard as choosing a good stock. In fact, one is much better off spending time picking some good stocks for a portion of one's long term investments (an "alpha fund") and letting the rest be indexed. This is due to the fact that the reward from picking an outperforming stock is far higher than for picking a good manager.
BUT ...
Indexing can be done poorly. A poorly chosen index can give one a systematic loss or erratic performance over multi-year time periods. Both occur from the same error, which is choosing an index that is a mere component to the "market" versus the entire market.
The way to buy the ENTIRE market is to buy the Vanguard Total Market index fund or its sister ETF - ticker VTI. This is the optimal index tactic for US stocks.
Babblevision and lots of pundits talk about buying the S&P 500 index funds. BUT those invest in only large stocks selected by S&P, not all stocks. They leave out small stocks and mid-cap stocks and the sector weights (industrial, financial, utility) are erratic. There have been and will be multi-decadal periods when large cap stocks underperform.
Also, buying the S&P 500 fund alone introduces systematic errors and costs, too, from the changing components of the index. Periodic rebalancing costs money, as a stock is added or removed. And the tendency is to remove poor (past) performing low market value stocks and add the best performing mid-cap stocks. That's a form of Sell Low, Buy High. The total market index avoids all that. It suffers much, much less re-balancing (really only for cash mergers and buyout). And it buys small companies holds them, capturing all the gains that can occur until such a company gets added to the S&P 500.
So if you choose to index US stocks, use the correct index - the Total Market Index. And the way to do that is through the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund or its VTI exchange traded fund.
My Krypto Fund does just that for its US stocks.
Actions
Looking around for screaming buys or sells, finding none yet.
Word of the Day
"Ephebe" - noun [$10/$100] (Greek historical)
Ephebe means [$10] a young man of 18-20 undergoing military training (also "ephebus"); ($100) a young man, especially an ephebus.
Sentence: The Marines are look for a few good ephebes.
BUT ...
Indexing can be done poorly. A poorly chosen index can give one a systematic loss or erratic performance over multi-year time periods. Both occur from the same error, which is choosing an index that is a mere component to the "market" versus the entire market.
The way to buy the ENTIRE market is to buy the Vanguard Total Market index fund or its sister ETF - ticker VTI. This is the optimal index tactic for US stocks.
Babblevision and lots of pundits talk about buying the S&P 500 index funds. BUT those invest in only large stocks selected by S&P, not all stocks. They leave out small stocks and mid-cap stocks and the sector weights (industrial, financial, utility) are erratic. There have been and will be multi-decadal periods when large cap stocks underperform.
Also, buying the S&P 500 fund alone introduces systematic errors and costs, too, from the changing components of the index. Periodic rebalancing costs money, as a stock is added or removed. And the tendency is to remove poor (past) performing low market value stocks and add the best performing mid-cap stocks. That's a form of Sell Low, Buy High. The total market index avoids all that. It suffers much, much less re-balancing (really only for cash mergers and buyout). And it buys small companies holds them, capturing all the gains that can occur until such a company gets added to the S&P 500.
So if you choose to index US stocks, use the correct index - the Total Market Index. And the way to do that is through the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund or its VTI exchange traded fund.
My Krypto Fund does just that for its US stocks.
Actions
Looking around for screaming buys or sells, finding none yet.
Word of the Day
"Ephebe" - noun [$10/$100] (Greek historical)
Ephebe means [$10] a young man of 18-20 undergoing military training (also "ephebus"); ($100) a young man, especially an ephebus.
Sentence: The Marines are look for a few good ephebes.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Very Bad - and Sad - Changes
Some recent events occurring in Iran show alarming changes. This morning's WSJ online had this story that caught my eye and tweaked my memory of other similar stories.
WSJ: Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip
BRUSSELS -- Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard has sidelined the country's intelligence ministry, forming a new organization that reports directly to the Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements, depict a shift under way since Iran's clerical regime was shaken by the massive street protests that followed disputed presidential elections in June. ...
"Khamenei wants to have absolute control," said Ms. Rajavi, saying that the NCRI's network of supporters in Iran has established that Mr. Taeb [head of new Revolutionary Guard unit] reports directly to Mr. Khamenei's chief of staff, Ali Asghar Hejazi. That would consolidate power in the hands of Mr. Khamenei and his loyalists at a time when deep fissures have emerged within the regime over his handling of the elections. ...
"The Revolutionary Guard is already a military, economic and political powerhouse in Iran. It controls the country's long-range missile program, as well as multiple business enterprises, including lucrative oil and gas projects. ...
""The Guards are in complete control of the country, they are running the show," said Iranian dissident journalist Roozbeh MirEbrahimi. "
Here is the point: This is exactly how the Nazi and Stalinist totalitarian regimes operated. They created a totally loyal party organization with offices parallel to the government, completely unaccountable to anyone BUT the supreme leader - der Führer - the General Secretary. This structure makes reforms will-nigh impossible. The Revolutionary Guards are Iran's SS and its KGB. The Iranian government itself is now secondary and is almost a Potemkin village - a fiction for show to delude the West and Iran's own people with a phony elections.
Unless bigger cracks appear in Iran's now totalitarian government somehow, prospects for long term peace in the Middle east are becoming very, very bad. The Soviet Union was worn down in a cold war of attrition and pressure for 45 years.
The recent demonstrations in Iran show that many of its people want freedom and a modern life. It's a great evil that the Iranian theocracy wants to subjugate them for its own power.
Actions
I am doing nothing, but thinking, looking and waiting for some good speculations. To borrow from that great old TV series, Paladin,
"Have Capital, Will Speculate"
Word of the Day
"Seriatim" - adverb [$10]; a very old one from the card file
Seriatim ans in a series.
Sentence: Many recent events in Iran, taken seriatim and not individually, are very alarming and show very great risks to regional peace.
WSJ: Revolutionary Guard Tightens Security Grip
BRUSSELS -- Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard has sidelined the country's intelligence ministry, forming a new organization that reports directly to the Supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Interviews with Iranian analysts and opposition figures, along with recent government announcements, depict a shift under way since Iran's clerical regime was shaken by the massive street protests that followed disputed presidential elections in June. ...
"Khamenei wants to have absolute control," said Ms. Rajavi, saying that the NCRI's network of supporters in Iran has established that Mr. Taeb [head of new Revolutionary Guard unit] reports directly to Mr. Khamenei's chief of staff, Ali Asghar Hejazi. That would consolidate power in the hands of Mr. Khamenei and his loyalists at a time when deep fissures have emerged within the regime over his handling of the elections. ...
"The Revolutionary Guard is already a military, economic and political powerhouse in Iran. It controls the country's long-range missile program, as well as multiple business enterprises, including lucrative oil and gas projects. ...
""The Guards are in complete control of the country, they are running the show," said Iranian dissident journalist Roozbeh MirEbrahimi. "
Here is the point: This is exactly how the Nazi and Stalinist totalitarian regimes operated. They created a totally loyal party organization with offices parallel to the government, completely unaccountable to anyone BUT the supreme leader - der Führer - the General Secretary. This structure makes reforms will-nigh impossible. The Revolutionary Guards are Iran's SS and its KGB. The Iranian government itself is now secondary and is almost a Potemkin village - a fiction for show to delude the West and Iran's own people with a phony elections.
Unless bigger cracks appear in Iran's now totalitarian government somehow, prospects for long term peace in the Middle east are becoming very, very bad. The Soviet Union was worn down in a cold war of attrition and pressure for 45 years.
The recent demonstrations in Iran show that many of its people want freedom and a modern life. It's a great evil that the Iranian theocracy wants to subjugate them for its own power.
Actions
I am doing nothing, but thinking, looking and waiting for some good speculations. To borrow from that great old TV series, Paladin,
"Have Capital, Will Speculate"
Word of the Day
"Seriatim" - adverb [$10]; a very old one from the card file
Seriatim ans in a series.
Sentence: Many recent events in Iran, taken seriatim and not individually, are very alarming and show very great risks to regional peace.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Cluster FUBAR
That's my favorite term nowadays for a colossal mess, or as the British might say, a big bloody cock-up. I coined it by conjoining that fine WW II slang term, "FUBAR", with part of a very colorful expletive said by Clint Eastwood as "Gunny Highway" in the fine movie, "Heartbreak Ridge".
Today, I am using it to describe the health care bill passed by the House of Representatives this past weekend under the orders of Speaker Pelosi, that paragon of the liberal pearls, wine and brie set. The bill in normal printed form is nearly 2,000 pagers. Like a malignant tumor, it's growing rapidly as it was a mere 1,000 pages just a few months ago. Of course, no one in that august body of "leaders", the House of Representatives, knows truly what is in it. Pelosi twisted arms and / or paid off 220 of those sheep (or is "hogs" more appropriate as they no doubt got plenty of payoffs for those votes) to get it passed.
The action moves to the Senate now. They will debate it - at least nominally. I suspect most of the bloviation will be sloganeering and pontification and ad hominem attacks on the opposition.
On October 21, I published my thinking on this major issue in a post titled, "A Solution to the Health Care Dilemma". Having put my views out for all to see, hence proving I am no mere naysayer, I now feel perfectly justified in slamming the Pelosi bill as the cluster FUBAR that it is.
Can anyone imagine the administrative costs that will occur with that bill ? I suppose one way to see it is as a transfer of the entire insurance company administrative mess to the Federal government. Anyone thinking will lead to cost savings or simplicity must be smoking what Barney Frank's "friend" was growing when arrested in August 2007 (Barney was present, claiming ignorance ... sure). [btw, the press covered this sleaze up for over two years.]
ObamaCare is a cluster FUBAR. Obama and Pelosi want to drop it on the American people without anyone finding out what it will truly do or not do. They will say anything to get it through. All the slogans are propaganda to hide its provisions until to late. There is no integrity there, no reason, no concern for people or freedom. Just sheer power and the push for more of it by the DC ruling classes.
Actions
I sold the HBC calls as the stock popped on its quarterly update. The call options strategy worked well. I still have calls on MT and BA (January expiration dates).
Otherwise, I am looking around for the next "Screaming Buy" or "Screaming Sell" to deploy speculative capital. I am also monitoring Krypto Fund for possible asset allocations. I'll post whatever I do, just after I do it.
Word of the Day
"Vomiturient" - adjective [$1000]
Vomiturient means characterized by a desire to vomit.
Sentence: Anyone seriously considering what the state of America's health care system will become under the Pelosi bill should be having strong vomiturient sensations.
Today, I am using it to describe the health care bill passed by the House of Representatives this past weekend under the orders of Speaker Pelosi, that paragon of the liberal pearls, wine and brie set. The bill in normal printed form is nearly 2,000 pagers. Like a malignant tumor, it's growing rapidly as it was a mere 1,000 pages just a few months ago. Of course, no one in that august body of "leaders", the House of Representatives, knows truly what is in it. Pelosi twisted arms and / or paid off 220 of those sheep (or is "hogs" more appropriate as they no doubt got plenty of payoffs for those votes) to get it passed.
The action moves to the Senate now. They will debate it - at least nominally. I suspect most of the bloviation will be sloganeering and pontification and ad hominem attacks on the opposition.
On October 21, I published my thinking on this major issue in a post titled, "A Solution to the Health Care Dilemma". Having put my views out for all to see, hence proving I am no mere naysayer, I now feel perfectly justified in slamming the Pelosi bill as the cluster FUBAR that it is.
Can anyone imagine the administrative costs that will occur with that bill ? I suppose one way to see it is as a transfer of the entire insurance company administrative mess to the Federal government. Anyone thinking will lead to cost savings or simplicity must be smoking what Barney Frank's "friend" was growing when arrested in August 2007 (Barney was present, claiming ignorance ... sure). [btw, the press covered this sleaze up for over two years.]
ObamaCare is a cluster FUBAR. Obama and Pelosi want to drop it on the American people without anyone finding out what it will truly do or not do. They will say anything to get it through. All the slogans are propaganda to hide its provisions until to late. There is no integrity there, no reason, no concern for people or freedom. Just sheer power and the push for more of it by the DC ruling classes.
Actions
I sold the HBC calls as the stock popped on its quarterly update. The call options strategy worked well. I still have calls on MT and BA (January expiration dates).
Otherwise, I am looking around for the next "Screaming Buy" or "Screaming Sell" to deploy speculative capital. I am also monitoring Krypto Fund for possible asset allocations. I'll post whatever I do, just after I do it.
Word of the Day
"Vomiturient" - adjective [$1000]
Vomiturient means characterized by a desire to vomit.
Sentence: Anyone seriously considering what the state of America's health care system will become under the Pelosi bill should be having strong vomiturient sensations.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
It is Wednesday ?
Nothing is happening - it sure seems like a typical Wednesday.
The Dow hit a recovery high yesterday. Yawn. The S&P 500 got to within one sneeze of its recovery highs. Why ?
The bears and doomsters fail to realize that returning to a prior know condition or state is much easier than growth into a new domain. They use growth rates appropriate for "new growth" applied to recession earnings levels and moan, "too far, too fast". But they are simply using the wrong method for assessing the changes.
I suppose an extended metaphor might help illuminate this concept. Suppose you are digging a hole in "virgin" earth (undug previously). That ground is going to be firm and hard. You'll have to really put your foot on the shovel and push it into the ground, and break the adhesion of the earth to itself. Now fill it in, and dig again. It's easy now - you probably don't even have to use your foot to remove the dirt with the shovel.
Another metaphor. Suppose you had many years of Latin in high school. And 40 years later, you decide to re-learn Latin. Guess what ? It's a LOT easier to recover that knowledge than it was to learn it first. This is something I now have personal experience with, as I am doing just that.
This is why "return to normalcy" can occur with great rapidity. Everyone already knows how to do what they were doing three years ago. So everyone (worldwide) can simply to revert to "normal" behavior once the panic is over. A bit of government stimulus helps regain the psychological confidence. Once that hits, the race begins to reclaim old business everywhere.
Actions
I sold the S&P call options yesterday, booking a 50% gain on quite respectable size. Although I still expect S&P 1200 soon (year end), who knows what the future will bring ? And with the beefers out there, maybe they'll attack and let me re-buy at lower levels.
As I posted in the comments upon the sale of the final chunk, "Je ne suis pas un goinfre" - I am not a greedy pig.
I still have some calls on HBC, MT and BA. HBC reported in Europe today and is trading up. HBC says loss provisions are decreasing - that's good. I'll read the report and decide later whether to sell or hold a few more days.
Word of the Day
"Quondam" - attributive adjective [$10]
Quondam means that once was; sometime; former.
Sentence: Returning to one's quondam state or condition is usually much easier than changing to, or learning, something new.
The Dow hit a recovery high yesterday. Yawn. The S&P 500 got to within one sneeze of its recovery highs. Why ?
The bears and doomsters fail to realize that returning to a prior know condition or state is much easier than growth into a new domain. They use growth rates appropriate for "new growth" applied to recession earnings levels and moan, "too far, too fast". But they are simply using the wrong method for assessing the changes.
I suppose an extended metaphor might help illuminate this concept. Suppose you are digging a hole in "virgin" earth (undug previously). That ground is going to be firm and hard. You'll have to really put your foot on the shovel and push it into the ground, and break the adhesion of the earth to itself. Now fill it in, and dig again. It's easy now - you probably don't even have to use your foot to remove the dirt with the shovel.
Another metaphor. Suppose you had many years of Latin in high school. And 40 years later, you decide to re-learn Latin. Guess what ? It's a LOT easier to recover that knowledge than it was to learn it first. This is something I now have personal experience with, as I am doing just that.
This is why "return to normalcy" can occur with great rapidity. Everyone already knows how to do what they were doing three years ago. So everyone (worldwide) can simply to revert to "normal" behavior once the panic is over. A bit of government stimulus helps regain the psychological confidence. Once that hits, the race begins to reclaim old business everywhere.
Actions
I sold the S&P call options yesterday, booking a 50% gain on quite respectable size. Although I still expect S&P 1200 soon (year end), who knows what the future will bring ? And with the beefers out there, maybe they'll attack and let me re-buy at lower levels.
As I posted in the comments upon the sale of the final chunk, "Je ne suis pas un goinfre" - I am not a greedy pig.
I still have some calls on HBC, MT and BA. HBC reported in Europe today and is trading up. HBC says loss provisions are decreasing - that's good. I'll read the report and decide later whether to sell or hold a few more days.
Word of the Day
"Quondam" - attributive adjective [$10]
Quondam means that once was; sometime; former.
Sentence: Returning to one's quondam state or condition is usually much easier than changing to, or learning, something new.
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