Friday, October 30, 2009

Global Climate Models Crap Out

In the fine dice game of craps, that means to roll a 2, 3 or 12 giving an instant loss. Recent years global temperature date disprove the models' accuracy for the short term. Today's WSJ has an article with some facts and lots of excuses from the pro-human cause hive. You'll have to read the article for the excuses from the government paid "scientists", but here's the important parts.

WSJ: "Two years ago, a United Nations scientific panel won the Nobel Peace Prize after concluding that global warming is "unequivocal" and is "very likely" caused by man. Then came a development unforeseen by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC: Data suggested that Earth's temperature was beginning to drop. ...

"Scientists who have long questioned man-made global warming cite the temperature drop that began in 2006 as more evidence the models are wrong. "They were predicting warming," says Richard Lindzen, a climate scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Mr. Lindzen's work, regarded as leading the research challenging man-made warming, suggests that natural factors such as clouds generally inhibit, rather than intensify, greenhouse-gas warming. He wrote in a recent article that the study from the U.K. admits that the kind of climate model cited in the U.N.'s IPCC report "did not appropriately deal with natural internal variability, thus demolishing the basis for the IPCC's iconic attribution" linking greenhouse-gas emissions to climate change. He added that "even when all models agree, they can all be wrong." "

The earth IS cooler on average that in 2005 and no major computer models predicted that FACT. If they can't predict the short term, then how can they predict the long term, when every year is a sequential time evolution of the prior year ? Obviously the models omit major physical processes. Why are they a basis for any policy ?

Money, greed, fanaticism. The usual causes of major FUBARs.

Market

Big rally - a reversal of the prior day. All those sold at the same time - as usual - realized that perhaps they were wrong and barged back in when the US GDP number came out better than expected at a solid 3.5% growth. If this market gets a good - or not so bad - jobs number next Friday, a big rally will ensue. Plenty of real buyers have picked up cheap stock from the beefers on these dips and the underinvested will panic.

Blabberg must read this blog. They were pointing out the analogies to the 1974 market this morning. That comparison was printed here months ago.

Actions

This AM I'll re-calculate positions in Krypto Fund to see if any re-allocations are necessary. Last evening, Fido Fund stock CLF reported good numbers, crushing estimates on both earnings and revenues. They are seeing increased demand from iron ore and metallurgical coal customers.

Word of the Day

"Threnody" - noun (also threnode) [$10]; plural threnodies / threnodes
Threnody means a lamentation, especially on a person's death; 2. a song of lamentation.
Sentence: In my lifetime I expect to hear threnodies on the death of the theory of human caused global warming. That false theory will die from an endless series of stakes of facts driven into its greedy heart as the earth reality bifurcates from the models' false trends.

70 comments:

Bud said...

the democrats have said as soon as health-care is passed ...............they want to work on a climate change (fairy tale) bill...........if that ever passes.............why wud anyone ever build aplant in the US again ??


17% unemployment comin................that's why i think it will never get out of the senate

Bud said...

'plenty of real buyers'



huh??? but i thought there were only 3 real buyers..........mrsB, warren buffett and the Bman............and last i heard


'non faccio nulla'

Bud said...

that's so funny


the real buyers got killed in the crash of 2008................and now all of a sudden there are 'plenty' of them ??? and they are so smart they always buy the stocks lower than the beefers ?? if they so good............why they got pounded last year??

Bunkerman said...

Congrats, Bud on Yank win, but ...

Non es deus.
Sie sind kein Gott.
Vous n'est pas un dieu.
Pan nie jest bóg.
Lei non è un dio.
Usted non es un dios.

Bud said...

Bman what is MIT's official 'policy' or 'stance' on global warming ?? they may not have one...........but academia is dominated by liberals so they may have issued one

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, Bud, just the other day I wrote that the "real" buyers NOW were the insurance companies reloading annuities.

Bunkerman said...

MIT has no "offical" policy that I know of, but like all entities heavily dependent on government grants, they kiss the government butts and stay in line.

Obama was recently their praising work on green tech; of course, its all governmetn funded.

Bud said...

back in the drivers seat of my 2010 Audi Q7..............in fact gonna be test drivin one tomorrow morning........when my world series wager wins...........i will be buyin one


how will i pay for it?? .........to quote randy moss



'straight cash homey'




PS......Sie sind kein Gott my ass

Bunkerman said...

At one time, it was metaphorically true there were only three "real buyers".

Bunkerman said...

times change.

Bud said...

i think bloomberg does read this blog............they doin the 74-75 comparison with this recession/market

Bud said...

last night only 'un-did' half the damage form game1...........remember i was layin 173 for game 1 ( i.e. i risked 173 to win 100 .........and i lost...........last nite.........i only won 100)


so effectively i am -73dollars in this series............i need to to win this series and also win over 1 game to go back to the safety deposit box..........for a deposit.........not a withdrawal..............i will have the strategy for this weekend later




Lei non è un dio my ass

Bunkerman said...

Hmm adding the English, "You are not a god" would give seven slaves whipsering.

That might be very good positive voodoo.

Meditate and say those seven phrases seven times with a seven second "ommmmmmm" in between groups

that's a 7x7x7 three dimensional form ...

might bring good luck

;)

Bunkerman said...

This Obama job claim is really stupid ...

$700 billion to "save" 700K jobs.

That's $1 million per job.

Not something to crow about.

Bud said...

this 'jobs' claim completely ridiculous..............nonsense..............rubbish..............thumping tosh


the numbers are bogus.............but even if true............we are LOSING jobs every month...........that's what matters



that's like saying.........i 'won' 2 grand betting college football this weekend...............and then not mentioning that i lost 4grand betting the nfl........it's the net number that matters

mfl59 said...

I have a better car you Bud....check out this website

http://www.smartusa.com/

Bud said...

this is the new white house strategy...........just keep repeating the phrase 'creating jobs' over and over and over and over again


irrelevant if it not true...........they beleive if they repeat it often enough...........at least some people will believe it

Bunkerman said...

The Big Lie is the name of the propaganda technique.

I think Joseph Goebbels invented it.

Bud said...

does Martin feldstein read this blog ?? from the FT



The dollar must decline relative to other currencies to make US products more attractive to foreign buyers and to cause Americans to substitute US goods and services for imports. Without that incentive to increase exports and reduce imports, the rise in domestic spending will just lead to US economic weakness and rising unemployment. That is why the recent decline in the dollar relative to the euro, the yen and other currencies is a natural and desirable part of the process of reducing the US trade deficit and shrinking global imbalances.



http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=924592

Bud said...

what feldstein fails to mention.............the declining dollar will lead to an exodus of capital out of the US...........surely that can't be good............i won't even talk about inflation

Bunkerman said...

yeah, when I heard that re Feldstien this AM on blabberg, I meant to post it, too.

Bunkerman said...

October Chicago PMI 54.2 vs 49.0 consensus, September 46.1

Frosty said...

see your beefer heros could care your fancy PMI data...cover more $ sell more spiddy...you and king dollar kudlow gonna kill this tape, happy now.

Bunkerman said...

tape ... smape

the fundies matter; bears to drown in a wave of bullish news

Spin-em said...

tape ... smape

the fundies matter; bears to drown in a wave of bullish news



Non es deus.
Sie sind kein Gott.
Vous n'est pas un dieu.
Pan nie jest bóg.
Lei non è un dio.
Usted non es un dios.

Bunkerman said...

that I know very well.

hence am not very long now, lots of cash still awaiting.

Frosty said...

waiting...what are we waiting for...how oversold do we need to be mr realbuyer...waiting for some panic, the old woooosshhherrr...hold the fire till in the wire.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, some pro ping pong going on.

Bunkerman said...

I guess it's some dollar-stocks trade nonsense.

The dollar is probably going up on better economic growth prospects.

So the beefers are unwinding their little games.

Frosty said...

gesh Bunky...your hero Ben a closet dollar bull...I guess your heros at GS pitching a lil bitch until he dances to their tune...."I will never rasie rates again"..."hey lloyd, are we still on for the spring fishing trip?"

mfl59 said...

"better economic growth prospects"

wake up pal....500k new unemployed every week...oh I forgot, its a lagging indicator....pfffttttttttt

Bud said...

hey Bman..................where are those..........ummmmm............'plent of real buyers' today ???

Bunkerman said...

I think they'll show up when the beefer selling dries up.

Frosty said...

Bunky...they are breaching the wire...you waiting to go hand to hand...Kbarstyle.

Bunkerman said...

just have to let the beefers wear themselves out.

Bunkerman said...

gotta stay in the bunker until the shelling stops.

Frosty said...

Sal..."I need a new german whip to pack my cash"...where is he..."I want to punch him in the face."

Bunkerman said...

Hmm Mrs. B buys some T for Sky Fund.

(I admit passing on frosty's idea - she has VZ already).

mfl59 said...

lmaooooo Frosty.....

"cash money homey" my assssssss

Frosty said...

I see berry has created 491 jobs here is south alaska...by similar logic, Sal is responsible for saving the virginity of 30 million women.

Bud said...

i will be long newyorkyankees up the wazoo tomorrow night..................this is the key game in my quest to buy a 2010 Audi Q7

please check the blog on sunday for my strategy for game 4

Bunkerman said...

Please do your 7x7x7 chants, Bud.

If you do them four times, it would be a better "four dimensional space time) voodoo effort.

Bud said...

hold on bob................lil busy here with the e-minis


i'll get to you...............apparently you want me to man-handle you.......oh wait...that's what you want........of course you do.........why??........cuz you're a fag

Bud said...

straight cash homey !!!!!!!!


not cash money honey or whatever the F frosty said...................what a f'ng douchebag

Spin-em said...

ol Nasty Hollywood Cole Hamels gunna give Andy an ol fashion texan boot stompin


GIANTS,EAGLES,DALLAS,WASH...NFC EAST GARBAGE!!

Frosty said...

Sal...I'll take the hawks
+29.5 sunday if your looking for a lil side action.

Spin-em said...

be nice to have gmeneagles tix at 1 then yanks/phils at night

Bud said...

'looking for a lil side action'


listen bob...............please keep your fag-wishes to yourself.............i'm not a fag like you...........

not that there's anythin wrong with it........oh wait..............there is somethin wrong with using your exit as and entry..........f'ng queers




PS.............still wanna be friends ????

Bud said...

" hey Sal.......why you gotta talk shit?.....why you gotta be so rude............so filthy....so vulgar...so nasty?"



CUZ I'M A NASTY MOTHERFUCKER !!!!!!!

Bud said...

sorry guys..............didn't mean to be so harsh


but frosty gets under my skin............not sure what it is.....oh i know what it is..........he's a...........oh......there i go again


callin off the dogs

mfl59 said...

"I know for a fact guys have been riding me"


"index card indeed"

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman wouldnt a real buyer be buying into such a once in a lifetime dip?

Bud said...

this market is in very big trouble now...............i am expecting S and p 1000 to get pierced next week
..........real buyers have no turned into real sellers


'beefers tryin to create panic'

mfl59 said...

"this market is in very big trouble now"


Bob can you price those SPX calls we just spoke about? thanks in advance...

Bunkerman said...

such a once in a lifetime dip?


lolololol

Bunkerman said...

once in the lifetime of a fruit fly.

Bunkerman said...

btw, remember that my theory of the variable annuity "real buyers" mentioned that if prices fell a lot, they might turn into real sellers due to their guaranteed floors.

Bunkerman said...

Anyway, the Elliott Wave guys will like a third wave down like this to get ready to buy.

mfl59 said...

Mark Levin said that all insurance companies will be bankrupt under the Obama plan....they are real sellers...

Bunkerman said...

maybe I'll get a chance to re-load soon.

I need another "buy" list ...

Bunkerman said...

I suppose he means the health insurers.

Life, P&C not affected.

mfl59 said...

no he said all...every single one of them...o course he is a bit dramatic...

Bunkerman said...

he must have been being dramatically vague, or forgot about the other types of insurance companies; I don't see why P&C or life companies would be affected at all.

mfl59 said...

well, he also believes the USA will be insolvent in 2 years....

Bunkerman said...

ahhh a really happy fellow.

Frosty said...

Wilbur Ross is out this afternoon calling for a huge crash in commercial real estate

Bunkerman said...

lol, there's already been a huge crash - at least 30% from peak.

Bunkerman said...

he's a little late.

Bunkerman said...

enjoy the weekend.

Go Yankees !!!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

Yankees win - yayyyyyyyy!!!

But the slaves whisper ...

Non es deus.
Sie sind kein Gott.
Vous n'est pas un dieu.
Pan nie jest bóg.
Lei non è un dio.
Usted non es un dios.
You are not a god.