Tuesday, October 27, 2009

The Way the World Works

This subject will be a recurring topic in the blog on and off for awhile, as I've been pondering aspects of it.

People seem inclined, whether genetically or by education, to see "things" as either A or B, not some A and some B. For example, when causes of the Panic of 2008 are discussed, most arguments degenerate into bipolar conflicts of (A) greedy Wall Street did it with overleverage, or (B) the government did it by mandating subprime housing finance by banks.

The World does not work as "A or B" in either its most microscopic level or the macroscopic level of humanity. People should stop trying to see the world as "A or B" - it's the wrong concept at the deepest philosophical level. In simple American language, the World is almost always "some A and some B". So stop thinking "A or B" - it just wastes time and leads to errors.

Another thing - the world is complex - literally. It involves complex numbers. Using complex numbers to explain phenomena forces one to bifurcate the phenomena into two dimensions - named the real part and imaginary part. Those are just names. But the math forces one to analyze the phenomena as "some A and some B", and not "A or B". That saves a huge amount of work and gets the answers right.

A famous physicist, Richard Feynman said once [paraphrasing from memory] that education should just teach what's right, and not to waste so much time on metaphors, analogies and simplistic models to try to "explain" the phenomena. I agree and would greatly expand that to all human endeavors, including political speech. All these endless metaphors and slogans are a waste of time and convince no one and lead to nothing.

The ancients knew this in some manner. Plato's theory of Forms involves the recognition that an object has two different dimensions, its matter and its form. A house is made of matter, the wood and nails, but is much more than a pile of wood and nails. The rules that combine the wood and nails - the architecture and construction plans - are the form.

The bifurcation of the World actually goes a lot deeper than even Plato knew. The matter itself is not one thing - "state", but is a combination of many - even an infinite number - of states. And even the form is not unitary. Matter does not follow the rules of a "wave" or a "particle", but is inherently at its deepest level both simultaneously. To be correct, one must abandon "A or B" thinking.

I'll write more about this subject soon.

Actions

I am doing nothing. Whether beefer selling or short selling, or a lack of real buyers higher, morning gains vaporized and the market ended lower by about 1%. Ms. Market stopped dancing and sat down yesterday; perhaps she needs a rest. Or needs some news to motivate her ? A good jobs number might induce her to dance the jitterbug again with some Bulls again.

Word of the Day

"Hylomorphism" - noun [$10]
Hylomorphism means the theory that physical objects are composed of matter and form. More extensively, hylomorphism is the theory that every physical object is composed of two principles, an unchanging prime matter and a form deprived of actuality with every substantial change of the object.
Sentence: [from "Great Ideas in Philosophy", part II notes, page 41] "On the question of human nature, [Aquinas] adopts the hylomorphic thesis: Man is a composite of body and soul."

52 comments:

Bud said...

good morning Bman !!!!!


what's wrong with metaphors and slogans..........don't you use them all the time...............rich man's panic 2008??????

Bud said...

been watchin this non-stop...............aaaaaaahhhhhhhh.......the sweet sounds of victory




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAcKiMy0Gp4






that makes me wanna go hit somebody...........where's frosty?? i'd like to punch him in the mouth

Bud said...

coach paul rhoads................coach of the year ?????


he has my vote

Bud said...

Bman i know you think that banks should not be allowed to both take deposits and do proprietary trading ............they shud be split into 2 separate companies


fine.............but then you have to agree with me in that case............ gdp growth ( and unemployment ) will have a'new normal'..............there are no profits in simple banking functions as taking deposits...........when banks generate big returns in proprietary trading..............they then have capital for lending




fine.............break up the banks...............but then don't bitch when we have 1% gdp growth and 9% unemployment cuz there is no money for small businesses to borrow

Bunkerman said...

Sure, I use them

Metaphors can help EXPLAIN somthing, BUT they fail when used as actaul elements in an argument.

One cannot build a case from a metaphor - they are neither substantive nor are rules.

It's simply idiotic when I hear layer upon layer of metaphor being used to argue a position.

Bunkerman said...

that bank argument is crap.

Very few banks do proprietary trading in a big way.

Most banks make money from using $ deposits to make loans and buy securities.

Bank capital tied up in trading is not available to lending - that is self-evident.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, Roubini says recession is almsot over and crisis is over.

I gues he reads this blog.

I guess he was completely wrong in the Spring, saying it would get worse.

Bud said...

atta boy Bman


you watch bloomberg-tv in the morning............gettin ready for the open.............play some ping-pong .............beefer style..............what the watering hole today ????

mfl59 said...

uhhh a few weeks ago Roubini said the worst is yet to come and the dollar was going to collapse....go back to your classroom pal...

Bunkerman said...

I doubt if I do anything in the market today, since "I'm not a trader" anymore.

I need to get my Polish & French lessons done early since I want to go to the MG range this PM.

Bunkerman said...

just heard him this AM, mfl.

"I guess he reads this blog"

mfl59 said...

yes I just meant he seems to change his mind often now, a clue that he really isnt sure what comes next...he is an academic...so he should go back and teach, not make random predictions...

Bunkerman said...

ah ... I get it.

I think guys like him just want to sell books and get paid for appearances while the gettign is good.

logic and consistency don't matter.

mfl59 said...

Oh my oh my...What a call Bob....I was short 5000 BIDU based on your call.....great post yesterday here on the blog....that's the call of the year!!!!


Danke Vielmals Bob!

Bud said...

holy smokes.......wow.................what a call !!!!!!!!! was it posted here ?? i must have missed that post




PS...........5000 shares x 80points = 400K..............great job ace..........hey ace............will you pay my 220bux greens fees?? i'll buy the beer and the sub

Bud said...

oh wait..................do you not wanna 'come out and play' cuz i bitchslapped your feelings last week?????????................no problem...........pussy



'punched in the gut'

mfl59 said...

I'm sure he posted it....it said something like "200% of my account is now short BIDU into the earnings call...It is a gimmie that they will miss the number."

Or maybe it was a private email...I'm not sure...

Bunkerman said...

lol BIDU down 80 overnight.

Frosty said...

Bunky...can feel the fear and panic in your morning post...just beefers stomping around toward the next watering hole...relax.

Bunkerman said...

lol, frosty.

At a deeper level, is the market a composite of (A) fear+panic and (B) greed+complacency with relative weights that vary with time and space ?

;)

Bunkerman said...

lolol this AM, the state (A) for "BIDU long" space is weighted almost 100%.

hmmm ... but the state for BIDU short space might be almost 100% B

;)

Bunkerman said...

on a more serious matter, what is your assessment of RIMM at 65?

are those defects hurting them permanently

what else, re Verizon, etc. ?

mfl59 said...

Iowa State celebration....lmaooooooooo.....act as if boys....you just be a third rate Nebraska team...gimmie a break...looks like the sharktank after a 40 cent winner....pffftttt

Bud said...

'looks like the sharktank after a 40 cent winner'


LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO



listen ace................you don't know how low the program had sunk..........we were the laughin stock of the big12............who's laughin now ?? i know the huskers ain't laughin

Bud said...

that's quite funny comin from a rutgers fan anyway..................they stormed the field after they beat..............louisville??? huh??? you beat a basketball school and tear down the goalposts.....huh?????


ace............what a prick

Frosty said...

RIMM a must own now has the weight of tax loss selling the rest of the Q...and yes I think they have seen peak margins, the semi cycle, INTC is screaming peak margins, as is AAPL iPhone, net of that app store...RIMM QC issues add to their margin contraction...working on NOK as the smart phone play 2010.

A break of 65 and that april earnings gappa fill is a done deal, I would consider it a Bunky value buy there.

Bud said...

and nebraska ain't no 3rd rate team ...............they have a monster record in lincoln...............prolly the hardest place in america to win a game after oct1



ace..............stick to strokin bob in your posts.............you know nuthin about college football

Spin-em said...

CTDC...heckuva call ace..."congrats"

mfl59 said...

Nebraska? are you serious? they have stunk for about 10 years....stop living in the past son...

as for when Rutgers stormed the field, I belive both teams were 8-0 and Louisville was ranked 4th in the nation...

Frosty said...

Bunky...VZ T I think both are buys...neither is up on the year, after being crushed in 08'...both should see institutionnal flows in 2010... with 6% yeilds, worth a swing indeed.

mfl59 said...

Bob is that your "Dogs of the Dow" salespitch sir?

Bunkerman said...

interesting, frosty. thanks.

mfl59 said...

in the last 3 1/2 seasons I see 10 home losses for Nebraska...yes...real tough to win in Lincoln....


be ethical son....be ethical....

Frosty said...

"Dogs of the Dow" salespitch sir?...LMAOOO...nonono T VZ whispered in my ear after another successful cougar hunt following a lil around the world on my costa rican couch.

mfl59 said...

Bud are you sticking with your boys in the World Series? Did you get you Joe Pepitone jersey back from the dry cleaners?

Frosty said...

"The Market Confounds the Technicians"...thx jim.

Bunkerman said...

off to the MG range

have fun ...

Bud said...

'both teams were 8-0 and Louisville was ranked 4th in the nation'


LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO



please ace...........stop..........you're embarassing yourself

Bud said...

locked and loaded newyorkyankees for the SERIES -200

..........i cannot lose..........now that i know that both my guys have the cash to pay me...........and i have a safety deposit box full of greenbax................i am goin after these guys hard

Bud said...

long newyorkyankees -170 for GAME 1 up the wazooooooooooooo


this is the crucial game for gambling purposes..............here's my strategy............after i win game1.........i am in the drivers seat on my series bet...........i will watch from the sidelines game2.........after newyork wins game2.............i will bet the phillies in game3.............similar to alcs.............i break these motherf'ers in two



there is no way newyork is losin game1.............i will watch the lines closely........good possibility i double up on newyork tomorrow

Bud said...

joe pepitone jersey


loooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

Bud said...

don corleone.......vito corleone...........sonny corleone.........michael corleone.........fredo corleone..........tom hagen corleone......connie corleone........mama corleone........

Bud said...

shall i go on ??


jerry corleone.........george corleone.........elaine corleone........kramer corleone.........numan corleone.......

Spin-em said...

Tellertwat taking yankees too???...hows he gunna bet if he cant talk....with barry nose....If yankees hit 1..BEEEP....if IN SIZE Phils hit 2 BEEP

Bud said...

well well well.........got some bad news for you guys rootin against me


the numbers are in for the first 4 weeks of e-mini trading...............looks like i made 6300 bux...........not bad for an 8th grade pitcher........i know i ain't rich like you know-it-alls...........but 6300bux alot of money to me...........


thanks Bman for all your support and encouragement........you have helped me immeasurably

mfl59 said...

6300...thats great Bud...way to go!!!

I made 400k today on Bob's BIDU call though...

Spin-em said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Spin-em said...

too long..looooool

mfl59 said...

well, in the interest of full disclosure, I have a bet on the Philadelphia Phillies to win the series....so as Big John McCarthy would say...."Let's get it on!"

Bud said...

400k loooooooooooooooool


well played ace.............well payed sir

Frosty said...

Bunky...when you are done with your "belt loaded" "touge learning" "mg range"...mush, where are we buying...1030-1040...Sal, what's you two cents, eminiking.

Bunkerman said...

I'lll look at some charts in teh AM re price points ... lately, thoughh, it never gets to mine.