Thursday, January 7, 2010

Time Diversification Works

I have personal, real-time proof that time diversification works. No surprise, actually, as one can prove that mathematically. But even in the recent market debacle of an alltime high in the S&P and then a bone-shattering 50%+ fall, investing over time can put one ahead.

Here's the proof.

In early 2007, I opened an joint account with Mrs. B at a local stock broker's office - a real full service broker, by the way. I put quite a bit money into this account in 2007 when the S&P was near its all time high over 1500. Over the next three years (approximately), more money was added including a good chunk in October 2008 when the fear factor was very high. Some of that was used to buy municipal bonds, but some was put into stocks, too (US big cap stocks). I checked the account this morning and it shows an overall gain. Yes, even now with the S&P at only 75% of its value when we started, the account shows a profit.

I make this point because some pundits are saying that long term investing is dead, that every one should trade, and that "buy and hold" is dead. This is irrefutable proof that investing long term with time diversification works even in very hard markets.

The proper investment method was never "buy and hold". It's always been buy over time and re-allocate among asset classes. Let's kill the straw man of "buy & hold" once and for all. And at the same time, put a sock in the big mouths of the new pundits advocating trading for all, or worse, advocating using professional managers in hedge funds.

Languages

My effort to learn six languages continues. I've accelerated my Italian work and slowed work on Spanish. I just like Italian better: it's poetic, very expressive, not grammatically hard, easy to pronounce, and culturally rewarding. Polish, German and French work continues as before. My ability to read newspaper headlines in all three is making marked improvement. Of course, my French is much further along as I started it six months earlier than the others.

Fwiw, I work on these about three hours a day, more or less.

Actions

I sold the put options yesterday morning when the market turned up. The pressure of loss of time premium is very large this close to expiration, so I elected to get what I could out of this position before it was wiped out. The New Year effect I was looking for clearly was not happening. Better to 23 skiddoo. I'll wait now for a new idea for my speculations.

Word of the Day

"Heigh-ho" - interjection [$10] from Shakespeare
Heigh-ho expresses boredom, resignation, etc.
Sentence: For the last few days of news - actually, the lack thereof - all I can say is, heigh-ho.

56 comments:

maverick said...

good morning Bman....how many hours per day are you in front of the computer screens?

Bunkerman said...

hmmm ... about 2/3 of my language work is from CD or online drills.

then there's writing this blog ...

checking on market, news ...

managing my skim businesses is mostly in front of computer ... (varies a lot day to day; week to week)


I'd guess wayyyy too much - about five hours.

almost none after 4PM; not much from noon to 4PM. A good bit from 4-5AM to 6-7AM.

Bunkerman said...

for example, I left computer at about 6:30 this AM to have breakfast, etc. Then read a book on sofa awhile. Back here just now to check on things.

Now going to do boxing workout.

later I have some skim work, then Polish so will be at computer all that time.

Spin-em said...

people of color languages out..wink...10/4 loud n clear...over and out.

Frosty said...

Sal...how much putter time u get...with that groved swing, the way you "release the club"...most your time must be spent at the range...no wonder Ace is balking at the duel.

mfl59 said...

Iowa State looked good against Duke last night...pfftttt

at least compete guys..dont lie down like you are scared...

Bunkerman said...

uh, remember that line in Shaft ... you aren't so white

Bunkerman said...

we're all people of color

;)

Frosty said...

Bunk...as I recall the plan was to roll forward the puts...did I read yesterday right, that you folded.

Bunkerman said...

I folded. I would have rolled forward IF the decline had started but was slow.

mfl59 said...

Any of the posters or non posters looking forward to tonight's new episode of Jersey Shore?

I hereby re-name Bud..."The Situation"

Spin-em said...

Jersey Shore in the linep for DVR night....can watch a weeks worth of shows in 1 night...may I also suggest..Trailer Park Boys.....loool Thurs ch 239

Frosty said...

"23 skiddoo"...what is that mern's new skim venture...you have a chunk of the action Bunk.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, frosty ... 23 skiddoo was a very popular way in the 1920s to say one is leaving quickly.

skiddoo is from skeedaddle, the Civil war term for running from the battle.

there are a few ideas for the '23' term, nothing defintie.

mfl59 said...

Former NHL coach and retired policeman Pat Burns was spinning a pretty good yarn on CKAC the other morning.

He says a Florida policeman pal, who knows the cops who visited Tiger Woods's home after the incident with his wife, gave him the real scoop.

According to Burns, Tiger was texting original mistress No. 1, Rachel Uchitel, while watching football at home on Thanksgiving night, erasing each of her texts as they came in. Then, he took off to play poker at a friend's house, forgetting the cell phone on the coffee table.

HUGE mistake.

The texts kept coming; wife Elin picked up the phone, saw them, and was waiting for him at the door when he got home around midnight. The 9-iron she wielded made a major gash on his cheek, and he lost two teeth before he ran outside — shoeless no less. You know the rest.

Frosty said...

thanks Bunk...let me use it..."Ace hurt Bud's feelings yesterday, he skeedaddled"

maverick said...

Bman...does Mrs. B suggest put purchases occasionally?

Bunkerman said...

no, Mrs. B is not an options person at all.

Bunkerman said...

your usage of "skeedaddle" sounds correct, frosty.

mfl59 said...

is Mrs. B a graduate of beefer university as well?

Bunkerman said...

yes, the grad school.

Bunkerman said...

She's a Ph. D. in a physiacal science, too.

Spin-em said...

Mrs B..If we can see back in time with the Hubble....can you build a machine to see into the future?? Will you be winning the Blue Ribbon when you come here this summer?..lool

Bunkerman said...

I don't she's doing more herding events out there ... too far for a few two minute runs.

But who knows ....

Frosty said...

keep an eye out for the guy "in the green golf shirt" Mrs B.

Frosty said...

ps...a KSS green golf shirt.

Spin-em said...

nonono Frost..Baltimore Harbor was all a flutter with my "lime" green Nautica golf shirt..lmaoo

Spin-em said...

please pronounce Nautica Jersey Shore style

mfl59 said...

you mean "frikin naawwwwwwwtica?"

Bud said...

good morning Bman !!!!!!!!!!!!


had to go to dunkin donuts today........medium vanilla latte.....whpped cream with caramel on top...............delicous!!!!!


surely there is a dunkin donuts within a couple of miles of the bunker............try it Bman

Bud said...

good cover on those puts Bman.............i am supremely bullish right now............this market can't be stopped



PS...........and if i'm wrong............i am sure i will be reminded by the scum here


' Bud said market was gonna rock.............it went down............what a moron!!!!............duhduhduhduh........'




f'ng pricks in here

Bud said...

what u talkin about ace ??? hooops????



no f'ng interest..............i'd rather watch wrestling.........oh wait..........that's a fag 'sport'..........never mind

Bud said...

i was about to ask what 23skiddoo meant.......cool

Bud said...

oh so............you went to beefer U............your friends are beefers.............and you married a beefer alumnus



you're a f'ng beefer Bman!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

yeah, there's a dunkin donuts about 2 miles away.

My coffee is better than theirs - I take it pure and black.

Spin-em said...

"Is NEP a bubble??"

hope ya didnt get shake n baked topper-son

mfl59 said...

so the market was going to crash on Monday and now it is going to the moon on Thursday?

"thanks cramer"

Bunkerman said...

actually you're a bit wrong - no close friends went to beefer U.

hmmm ... my closest friend here is an HS grad, that's it; Vietnam vet around 1967 - carried an M14 -very heavy.

Spin-em said...

ohhh gezzzuz..roflllllllllllll

MVP MVP MVP!!

Spin-em said...

HS grad, that's it;

I dont know Big Al sounds a little condescending and judgmental to me...maybe he didnt mean it or I missed the point again...lol

Frosty said...

"dunkin donuts about 2 miles away"...need one more to triangulate a mortar attack Bunky, you previously provided the MCD position.

what type of mortar would you go with...played with my friends mortars...he taking me to mortar range and a mortar show soon...I already joined the national mortar association.

Bunkerman said...

not condescending at all ... he has more sense than lots of beefer u grads. The "that's it" copmment was to make the point clearly, after all I'm an HS grad, too.

It's not Big Al anyway - he's lives in my home town in Ohio.

Spin-em said...

dont forget..we have "the river"..poor Mrs B

Bud said...

cut the crap Bman !!!!!


you yourself said you enjoy eating lunch at the Harbard club .........who you think you havin martini's with there..........jack the carpenter ?????


vietnam vet my ass

Bud said...

sorry frosty...............i called off the dogs for the week..............i can't beat you........fire away at will


don't worry..............monday will be here soon enuff..........i take of business then

Bunkerman said...

re mortars, the 60 mm is a lot easier to get shells you can re-load; more portablet, too.

My friend in town here had a real one once - used to lob dummy shells over his house. Then one landed in wife's garden party ... end of fun.

Bunkerman said...

I take my NYC friends to Harvard Club. They did not go to Harvard - I pay.

mfl59 said...

Bud do you eat at the Iowa State Club? what types of cuisine do they serve son?

Bunkerman said...

the 60 mm mortar is more portable, too.

I have a de-mill; it's cool.

Spin-em said...

My friend in town here had a real one once - used to lob dummy shells over his house. Then one landed in wife's garden party ... end of fun.

ROFLLLLLLLLL

Bud said...

yes ace.................crash friday...........to the moon today


isn't that amazing?????........what a f'ng prick you are




PS.............ace you ever trade futures ???

Bud said...

cuisine lol



iowa a meat and corn state............and beer..............the 3 basic food groups

Spin-em said...

in ur case corn is an activity

mfl59 said...

Yes sir...ace got his start in the business in the futures pits...

Spin-em said...

sorry Mrs B



ROFLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

Frosty said...

Sal...what do you people think of the $BKX free of the 45 strike.