Monday, April 30, 2007
Classical Music
I hooked up the speakers on my new Vista computer and am playing Mozart. He's my favorite classical composer by far. A distant second is Beethoven. The modernist atonal stuff - ugh!
Monday Review
Krypto Fund +4.8% ytd;
Alpha Fund +21.3% ytd;
Commodities +25% ytd.
Took some small wounds on recent commodity moves. And some of those "marker" positions are bleeding, too. Glad I didn't load up on anything. Commodities are pretty volatile & move contrary to news often. One has to be careful there. Year high in commodities was +35%. I still think I'm right, but am not doing any adding. My commodity book is now 1.5x capital measured on total contract value of the futures positions. Not excessive.
The WSJ story this AM was troubling regarding these "total return swaps" => looks like the regulators are asleep again. Obviously these are frauds on the margin lending rules.
Still long & strong at +150% in Alpha Fund stocks: energy, deep water drillers, India, miners, select tech (AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, ORCL, ADBE), some solar (Si's FSLR, JASO, TSL, SPWR), and some biotech (NVAX, BCRX, BIOM, BTRX, CRXL, PTN), takeover plays (HD, DOW), and AMSC & EDU. Energy & deep water drillers are 44%, India is 25%, miners are 14%, and the techs are 10%. The rest are small.
Today's monthly core PCE number is important -> we need a downtick for yoy.
USDA Crop Progress report is important, too. Need slow corn planting.
PS: The core PCE year over year was 2.1%, a very good number, down from 2.4% last month. :-) Disinflation rules!
PPS: Looks like a beefer bear raid starting around 2PM. I could wonder why, but I suppose expecting rationality is foolish with respect to beefers. The Rut is bearing the brunt of the raid. They hit oil & oil stocks around the same time.
Alpha Fund +21.3% ytd;
Commodities +25% ytd.
Took some small wounds on recent commodity moves. And some of those "marker" positions are bleeding, too. Glad I didn't load up on anything. Commodities are pretty volatile & move contrary to news often. One has to be careful there. Year high in commodities was +35%. I still think I'm right, but am not doing any adding. My commodity book is now 1.5x capital measured on total contract value of the futures positions. Not excessive.
The WSJ story this AM was troubling regarding these "total return swaps" => looks like the regulators are asleep again. Obviously these are frauds on the margin lending rules.
Still long & strong at +150% in Alpha Fund stocks: energy, deep water drillers, India, miners, select tech (AAPL, GOOG, CSCO, ORCL, ADBE), some solar (Si's FSLR, JASO, TSL, SPWR), and some biotech (NVAX, BCRX, BIOM, BTRX, CRXL, PTN), takeover plays (HD, DOW), and AMSC & EDU. Energy & deep water drillers are 44%, India is 25%, miners are 14%, and the techs are 10%. The rest are small.
Today's monthly core PCE number is important -> we need a downtick for yoy.
USDA Crop Progress report is important, too. Need slow corn planting.
PS: The core PCE year over year was 2.1%, a very good number, down from 2.4% last month. :-) Disinflation rules!
PPS: Looks like a beefer bear raid starting around 2PM. I could wonder why, but I suppose expecting rationality is foolish with respect to beefers. The Rut is bearing the brunt of the raid. They hit oil & oil stocks around the same time.
Sunday, April 29, 2007
I Hate Cellphones!
Cellphones are a pestilence on modern life. They are a scourge on QUIETLY enjoying life. They are the bane of civility. As an instrument of bad behavior, they excel. Here are some examples.
Walking through the grocery store today, buying some fruit & a roast, some women is blabbing endlessly up & down the aisles. How often is a serious meeting interrupted by some nincompoop's cell phone going off? And how often is an otherwise enjoyable dinner out disturbed by some jerk or jerkette at a nearby table prattling away? And how many near-accidents occur because some dopey woman in an SUV is gossiping instead of driving?
Why do men wear them around like a symbol of their manhood? Tool-hood is more like it. A sign of importance - hardly, they are a sign you're on call by your masters: a badge of serfdom.
There is only one way to use a cell phone: turn it OFF! Carry it only for emergencies.
[OK, I admit one COULD carry one for business IFF expecting or needing to make an IMPORTANT call. ]
PS: [for fun] You do know that cellphones have a transponder in them? And that "they" can track you? How do you really know that it doesn't send a little "beep" out every few minutes EVEN when off? We saw the latest James Bond movie and Bond used the bad guy's cell phone to track him. Hmmmmm. I'm not going to carry a transponder on me. No way. ;-)
Walking through the grocery store today, buying some fruit & a roast, some women is blabbing endlessly up & down the aisles. How often is a serious meeting interrupted by some nincompoop's cell phone going off? And how often is an otherwise enjoyable dinner out disturbed by some jerk or jerkette at a nearby table prattling away? And how many near-accidents occur because some dopey woman in an SUV is gossiping instead of driving?
Why do men wear them around like a symbol of their manhood? Tool-hood is more like it. A sign of importance - hardly, they are a sign you're on call by your masters: a badge of serfdom.
There is only one way to use a cell phone: turn it OFF! Carry it only for emergencies.
[OK, I admit one COULD carry one for business IFF expecting or needing to make an IMPORTANT call. ]
PS: [for fun] You do know that cellphones have a transponder in them? And that "they" can track you? How do you really know that it doesn't send a little "beep" out every few minutes EVEN when off? We saw the latest James Bond movie and Bond used the bad guy's cell phone to track him. Hmmmmm. I'm not going to carry a transponder on me. No way. ;-)
The Life of George Washington by John Marshall
I finished reading this first hand account written circa 1805 by the famous Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court, who both knew George Washington personally and had access to his private papers, having permission of his estate's executor to use them for this book. The book is fascinating. The language level is elevated and some archaic usages are footnoted by Liberty Fund who republished it in 2000.
The last third covers the first years of the United States under its new constitution. When George Washington took office as President, he was the sole officer of the United States and had to create the government from nothing. I think understanding this period helps one gain much insight to the nature of the republic and political conflicts that have persisted down to now.
For example, page 337 has an illuminating sentence relating to raising revenue: "... and of devising means which should produce revenue in a manner least burdensome to the people ..."
Page 352 contains an interesting idea that was considered, among others: "... a tax on ... lawyers, ... " Definitely a good one that didn't get through. ;-)
George Washington definitely believed he had the power and authority to ascertain and act on the unconstitutionality of laws passed by Congress. Several examples are given. This contrasts to many modern Presidents [such as W.] who actually sign bills they consider unconstitutional.
Thomas Jefferson & his early party comes across rather poorly. They tried to get the US involved in France's war in Europe. They refused to fund a Navy that could protect Americans from kidnapping. And they seem infatuated with the French revolution even AFTER it devolved into a murderous mob and later dictatorship. Biographies of Jefferson seem to neglect that period for him. And his party tried to smear Washington with some forges letters, too. Some things never change. Obviously Jefferson was a great President but not the perfect man as so often made out today.
"The Life of George Washington" by John Marshall [Liberty Fund edition] is well worth reading - I highly recommend it.
The last third covers the first years of the United States under its new constitution. When George Washington took office as President, he was the sole officer of the United States and had to create the government from nothing. I think understanding this period helps one gain much insight to the nature of the republic and political conflicts that have persisted down to now.
For example, page 337 has an illuminating sentence relating to raising revenue: "... and of devising means which should produce revenue in a manner least burdensome to the people ..."
Page 352 contains an interesting idea that was considered, among others: "... a tax on ... lawyers, ... " Definitely a good one that didn't get through. ;-)
George Washington definitely believed he had the power and authority to ascertain and act on the unconstitutionality of laws passed by Congress. Several examples are given. This contrasts to many modern Presidents [such as W.] who actually sign bills they consider unconstitutional.
Thomas Jefferson & his early party comes across rather poorly. They tried to get the US involved in France's war in Europe. They refused to fund a Navy that could protect Americans from kidnapping. And they seem infatuated with the French revolution even AFTER it devolved into a murderous mob and later dictatorship. Biographies of Jefferson seem to neglect that period for him. And his party tried to smear Washington with some forges letters, too. Some things never change. Obviously Jefferson was a great President but not the perfect man as so often made out today.
"The Life of George Washington" by John Marshall [Liberty Fund edition] is well worth reading - I highly recommend it.
Banks Steal Widows' Social Security
Snidely Whiplash is at it again [cf. Dudley Doright cartoon of the 1960s on Rocky & Bullwinkle Show].
Saturday's Wall Street Journal had numerous examples how the banks, in VIOLATION of existing Federal law, take Social Security money from accounts of widows & elderly poor to pay creditors, including themselves. And they charge outrageous fees for doing it. The banks say they can't be bothered to check when they take the money. What self-interested garbage! They don't seem to have trouble charging big fees; or calculating complex interest; or creating long, complex "privacy" policies. Or in fact doing anything that makes them money. But obeying a law to protect elderly from destitution - they can't be bothered.
And where are the protectors of the people in DC? As usual, they don't really do anything to help people. They just want money from their rich supporters & lobbyists.
Is there any wonder I'm cynical about the motives of politicians?
Saturday's Wall Street Journal had numerous examples how the banks, in VIOLATION of existing Federal law, take Social Security money from accounts of widows & elderly poor to pay creditors, including themselves. And they charge outrageous fees for doing it. The banks say they can't be bothered to check when they take the money. What self-interested garbage! They don't seem to have trouble charging big fees; or calculating complex interest; or creating long, complex "privacy" policies. Or in fact doing anything that makes them money. But obeying a law to protect elderly from destitution - they can't be bothered.
And where are the protectors of the people in DC? As usual, they don't really do anything to help people. They just want money from their rich supporters & lobbyists.
Is there any wonder I'm cynical about the motives of politicians?
Friday, April 27, 2007
Rotation?
My impression is that Ms. Market is tiring of her current flame & will be rotating soon. Mr. Dow Stock or Stan Poor to be thrown aside as Ms. Market lends her charms to Mr. Nazz or Mr. Rut? Maybe Ms. Market wants to get dirty - are the Four Letter stocks to get the next wave vs. the three letter ones I favor?
The charts suggest that. The Dow & S&P 500 look "extended" [ ugh, I dislike that word ], and the Nazz & rut look like fresh breakouts are setting up. The SOX keeps going up out of a long base.
I figure the energies, miners & Dow+S&P will rest awhile as the Nazz and Rut get action. The beefers need a payday on July 1 and that's how I think they'll try to get one.
I'm not selling my faves as I think they go much higher later. I have some tech for IT trades, but want to stay out of the short term trading game. I'm going to Vegas mid May & don't want to get too involved in the four letter games coming.
You guys & gals out there might get some good action IIFF I'm right.
PS: the core PCE inflation index was 2.2% year over year for Q1 - too high. But we already knew that Jan & Feb & March was too high based on monthly yoy upticks then. The downtick that counts was for April. Besides, the Q1 07 number was the same as the Q4 06 number. So this bears watching, but is not really "news". No action imho.
The charts suggest that. The Dow & S&P 500 look "extended" [ ugh, I dislike that word ], and the Nazz & rut look like fresh breakouts are setting up. The SOX keeps going up out of a long base.
I figure the energies, miners & Dow+S&P will rest awhile as the Nazz and Rut get action. The beefers need a payday on July 1 and that's how I think they'll try to get one.
I'm not selling my faves as I think they go much higher later. I have some tech for IT trades, but want to stay out of the short term trading game. I'm going to Vegas mid May & don't want to get too involved in the four letter games coming.
You guys & gals out there might get some good action IIFF I'm right.
PS: the core PCE inflation index was 2.2% year over year for Q1 - too high. But we already knew that Jan & Feb & March was too high based on monthly yoy upticks then. The downtick that counts was for April. Besides, the Q1 07 number was the same as the Q4 06 number. So this bears watching, but is not really "news". No action imho.
Whither Went Volatility?
Easy. The beefers ate it. ;-)
Trillions of $$$ in computer-driven trading funds designed to extract money from moves in stock prices usually are a smoothing force for the common price moves of stocks. If some buyer want stocks & bids them up, the computers move to short it instantly, reducing the price move. Then in millions of small trades, they cover. Ditto on the reverse. Voila, volatility is reduced. Until an event causes a singularity and a large re-pricing move. Then the computers exacerbate volatility.
The tendency of this huge computer trading money machine is to drive volatility down. So forget about trying to divine the "meaning" of low volatility. Computer trading programs have erased the value of many technical indicators, unless very, very extreme.
[whither, hither, thither are archaic correlative adverbs used to indicate "to a place"; similarly, hence, thence and whence indicate "from a place". Languages like Latin (& Russian as I remember a little) have terms & grammar like that to indicate motion. English has ejected these over time. But medieval English had them and writers of novels set in that period use them. I heard a lot of those words listening to "The White Company" by Arthur Conan Doyle and learned how to use them. A Fred Astaire movie in the 1930's had a funny scene with Eric Blore on their usage. So I think I'll try then out from time to time as this is an erudite blog site. ;-) ]
Trillions of $$$ in computer-driven trading funds designed to extract money from moves in stock prices usually are a smoothing force for the common price moves of stocks. If some buyer want stocks & bids them up, the computers move to short it instantly, reducing the price move. Then in millions of small trades, they cover. Ditto on the reverse. Voila, volatility is reduced. Until an event causes a singularity and a large re-pricing move. Then the computers exacerbate volatility.
The tendency of this huge computer trading money machine is to drive volatility down. So forget about trying to divine the "meaning" of low volatility. Computer trading programs have erased the value of many technical indicators, unless very, very extreme.
[whither, hither, thither are archaic correlative adverbs used to indicate "to a place"; similarly, hence, thence and whence indicate "from a place". Languages like Latin (& Russian as I remember a little) have terms & grammar like that to indicate motion. English has ejected these over time. But medieval English had them and writers of novels set in that period use them. I heard a lot of those words listening to "The White Company" by Arthur Conan Doyle and learned how to use them. A Fred Astaire movie in the 1930's had a funny scene with Eric Blore on their usage. So I think I'll try then out from time to time as this is an erudite blog site. ;-) ]
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