Do something !
Over 400 years ago the famous French philosopher Montaigne wrote his essay #4 titled "How the soul discharges its passions on false objects when the true are wanting" [Great Books, vol. 23, page 57-58]. In that essay he gave many examples from history how rulers misdirected anger according to superstitions and myths of the time (such as Xerxes having the waters of the Hellespont whipped for making his crossing difficult), or beating their own bodies in some manner (Augustus Caesar beating his head against the wall saying "Varus, give me back my soldiers" after the defeat at the Teutoberg Forest in A. D. 9). Or referring to a tale of a man pulling his hair out in grief, "Does this man think baldness relieves grief ?" Montaigne observes: "So it seems the soul, once stirred and set in motion, is lost in itself unless we give it something to grasp; and we must give it an object to aim and act on." If a legitimate object is not found, the soul "forges a false and frivolous one." [loc. cit.]
Now in our time currently, many of the public at large display much anger at Obama's crypto-fascist maneuvers to impose obligations on the people via sheer power politics. The "Tea Party" movement is channeling some of the anger into positive political responses. These remind me of the Howard Jarvis led Proposition 13 movement in California in the 1970s that brought real estate tax relief to California homeowners. And Barbara Anderson's similar effort in Massachusetts brought forth Proposition 2 1/2 which gave Massachusetts citizens a direct vote in their towns on real estate tax hikes over a 2.5% per annum trigger. Those were successful, peaceful rebellions against oppressive government.
Obama's shills are screeching against the efforts of the common man to regain some power. That means they are worried. A good blog I read yesterday about the Anger described a New York Times writer calling all the angry people 'racists'. That's sheer nonsense and a polemical, ad hominen fallacy to disrupt the debate. How should we interpret the anger, though ? Is it more general than anti-Obama feeling ? Yes, in my opinion. Past commentors here raised the issue even before Obama was elected. I've pondered it myself, but can't remember putting the ideas into one cogent statement that encapsulated the frustration and despair of the common man. Here's how the perspicacious* blogger cited above put it: "The real cause of the rage is the sense that money seems to be flowing only upward (away from the middle class) and not circulating in small business and consumer lending or in the form of pay raises, and the resulting fear and sense of general disease is horrifying to people." [cited from link given above.]
That sounds about right to me. The common man is getting the short end of so many sticks he is fed up ... or in despair. Government and the ruling classes have gone too far. When an average family faces a 45% marginal tax rate on income from extra effort, that's far, far too high. Obama is now resorting to mandates as raising taxes with rates already so high is soon to be counterproductive. Big corporations and the ruling classes are his co-conspirators in putting new burdens on the common man, and in sucking more money from him and his communities. It is infuriating !
As Montaigne pointed out 400 years ago, one needs to direct one's anger properly. Miss-directed anger at myths does nothing. Stop mere sloganeering & griping to your own circle of friends. Volunteer some time or money or both to help nascent movements get off the ground. Find local, HONEST candidates to support. Contact representatives with ideas. Early money donations are crucial for getting campaigns started - whether for candidates or for initiative efforts.
Stop shopping at Wal-Mart and other conduits for China. A huge amount of the money spent there flows straight to China. Cut your use of imported oil (yes, Sun Boy is right). Take your money out of mega-banks and money market funds and put it into local banks.
"Fear and rage accomplish nothing productive. But working together, we are some of the most productive people on earth. It is time to face up to what is bothering so many of us and get back to being the "can-do" nation that we are." [loc. cit.]
Markets
Ms. Market seems tired of dancing. Every jig lately runs out of steam fast. Beware of complacency. This is no place to be leveraged long. Seasonal strength runs out soon. Take some profits so you'll have some money to buy a big dip. Lots of events can cause it and it will be unpredictable. Constant Vigilance is the watch word.
Word of the Day
"Perspicacious" - adjective [$10]; "Perspicacity" - noun [$10]
Perspicacious means of acute mental vision or discernment.
Perspicacity means acuteness of perception, discernment or understanding.
Sentence: Writing a trenchant blog post requires perspicacious observation and insight, and the ability to express thoughts verbally with simpicity and clarity.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
We Need a Rebellion ...
in attitudes, not violence. Yesterday at noon I crawled out of a two month session in Tax Preparation Purgatory, having suffered many, many torments imposed on me ... and the rest of US population even if they might not realize it. It's mandatory - the government says do it, or they'll jail or even kill you (if you resist). After that annual oppression, I needed to get some rebellious entertainment last evening: I watched that great, hilarious movie of rebellion of the 1970s - Gumball Rally.
Xers - and certainly not the Y and Z generations - might not know about the experience of the 1970s in government mandates: wage & price controls, a multitude of new regulations on business and products, and "gasp" that symbol of oppression - the 55 mph national speed limit. Double nickels, it was called. I remember it well - the drive to/from Harvard to my hometown in Ohio became an interminable 16 hours versus the prior 12-13 hours.
Gumball Rally is about an illegal, unofficial cross-country auto race from New York City to Long Beach, California: no 55 mph speed limit, all means of smoky [aka highway patrol] detection permitted, the hottest cars roaring down the highway at over 120 mph all the way. The characters are wonderful, and since imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, that its entire plot and many characters were copied in the 1981 hit movie, Cannonball Run and its sequels, is certainly high flattery.
In our times, the government has imposed so many insidious mandates on us that we forget that first one (in our lifetime) from another era, it seems. There are toilet mandates, soon there will be light bulb mandates. And sooner than you think, the IRS will enforce the health insurance mandate. What next ? What part of the word FREEDOM do the seigneurs in DC not understand ? As for that first mandate - "Double Nickels" - people fought it and eventually won - the 55 mph national speed limit was repealed under President Reagan.
Assert your freedom. Say to yourself every morning - I am not a number, I am a free man !
[That memorable line is from the intriguing TV show of the late 1960s - The Prisoner].
And don't just get angry - unfocused anger accomplishes nothing. And the enemies of freedom will pejoratively label mere anger as ignorant. Join the debate, use good arguments for freedom, and claim victory when the opposition resorts to ad hominem fallacies to close off debate.
Do something to save our freedom ! And it you want some humorous, motivational entertainment - watch Gumball Rally.
Markets
I will check with Krypto today to see if she has any sell orders for me - one regarding selling a bit of US stock was close last time she checked. Look for a PS here later.
Word of the Day
"Obnubliate" - verb, transitive [$100]
Obnubliate means becloud; to cloud over; obscure
Sentence: Don't let the use of ad hominem fallacies obnubliate your mind or arguments in a critical discussion or debate. Screechs of racism when one criticizes Barry's policies are truly an admission that the screecher has no rational rebuttal for you: you've won - claim victory over the point loudly and move ahead.
Xers - and certainly not the Y and Z generations - might not know about the experience of the 1970s in government mandates: wage & price controls, a multitude of new regulations on business and products, and "gasp" that symbol of oppression - the 55 mph national speed limit. Double nickels, it was called. I remember it well - the drive to/from Harvard to my hometown in Ohio became an interminable 16 hours versus the prior 12-13 hours.
Gumball Rally is about an illegal, unofficial cross-country auto race from New York City to Long Beach, California: no 55 mph speed limit, all means of smoky [aka highway patrol] detection permitted, the hottest cars roaring down the highway at over 120 mph all the way. The characters are wonderful, and since imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, that its entire plot and many characters were copied in the 1981 hit movie, Cannonball Run and its sequels, is certainly high flattery.
In our times, the government has imposed so many insidious mandates on us that we forget that first one (in our lifetime) from another era, it seems. There are toilet mandates, soon there will be light bulb mandates. And sooner than you think, the IRS will enforce the health insurance mandate. What next ? What part of the word FREEDOM do the seigneurs in DC not understand ? As for that first mandate - "Double Nickels" - people fought it and eventually won - the 55 mph national speed limit was repealed under President Reagan.
Assert your freedom. Say to yourself every morning - I am not a number, I am a free man !
[That memorable line is from the intriguing TV show of the late 1960s - The Prisoner].
And don't just get angry - unfocused anger accomplishes nothing. And the enemies of freedom will pejoratively label mere anger as ignorant. Join the debate, use good arguments for freedom, and claim victory when the opposition resorts to ad hominem fallacies to close off debate.
Do something to save our freedom ! And it you want some humorous, motivational entertainment - watch Gumball Rally.
Markets
I will check with Krypto today to see if she has any sell orders for me - one regarding selling a bit of US stock was close last time she checked. Look for a PS here later.
Word of the Day
"Obnubliate" - verb, transitive [$100]
Obnubliate means becloud; to cloud over; obscure
Sentence: Don't let the use of ad hominem fallacies obnubliate your mind or arguments in a critical discussion or debate. Screechs of racism when one criticizes Barry's policies are truly an admission that the screecher has no rational rebuttal for you: you've won - claim victory over the point loudly and move ahead.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Gross Unfairness
That's the current US system for taxation of income. The capricious and vindictive nature of the technical details of the system are grossly unfair to the people. How ? This post concentrates on one type of pure unfairness: inequality before the law. The example: payments for health insurance.
Persons working for big companies or governments who provide that benefit don't notice it. That's because the company or government pays. The employee pays nothing and it never shows up on his taxes. The company deducts the premium expense as an ordinary business expense. Even IF the employee pays part of the expense in a share of the premium OR the co-pays under the policy, often that is structured to use pre-tax money: A portion of pay is diverted pre-tax into an account to be used for that purpose. So these people get health care from pre-tax money.
That's a good deal IF you can get it, since including Social Security and Medicare taxes, marginal rates are really very high even at low incomes. Adding the 15.3% Social Security and Medicare tax to the 25% bracket [which kicks in at $67,900 for joint filers, $34,000 for the single] and adding 5% state income taxes, too, one gets a very, very high marginal tax rate of just over 45% for the bulk of the middle class. Using pre-tax dollars means buying at a 45% discounts - quite a "sale".
What about persons working for small companies or even larger companies who do NOT provide to all employees ? They have to buy their own insurance. That is very expensive. I pay for our health insurance now. The plan is that of Mrs. B's former employer, as she was able to retain it as a retiree, having worked there over 30 years and being over 55. BUT we must pay the FULL costs for coverage of ourselves. That is about $14,000 per year. Not chicken feed. [By the way, I priced other plans and for a married couple in MA, the cost is about the same for the same "Preferred Provider" plan.]
A person in the 45% marginal tax regime must earn $25,450 to be able to pay that cost. You can easily see why many, many persons don't buy health insurance if their employer does not provide it. It is very, very unfair that those with GOOD JOBS from stronger employers get health insurance cheaper than those working for weaker, less financially able companies, often for less pay.
[NOTE: one might be able to deduct part of that cost in the itemized deductions, BUT that is limited to the amount over 7.5% of one's income. If one is a middle class family of two earners making $200,000 per year, that limit is $15,000 - hence NO deduction. see how capricious the system is ?]
What about the self-employed ? Can they use pre-tax dollars ? Yes, they can, IF the plan is "established under your business". For a sole proprietor, that means in the name of the sole proprietor. IF that condition is met, then the self-employed can take take an adjustment to income (that's good - it's before the adjusted gross income line and before all the limits on itemized deductions).
BUT if the policy is in the name of the sole proprietor's spouse, then NOPE, no adjustment. that person gets screwed and must use very costly after tax money to pay for the premium.
AND you might now guess that we are in that situation. The coverage we could retain from Mrs. B's former employer is in her name. I pay the same cost, but we get no income adjustment.
Treating the same expenditures differently for technical reason is simply unfair - no, it's grossly unfair. All payments for health insurance should at least be given an adjustment to income. That's still not a good as those working for big companies and governments get, as those get the coverage before those big Social Security and Medicare taxes. But it would be a start.
With all the focus on health insurance reform by Obama, you would have thought his supposedly "historic" "reform" would at least be roughly fair. BUT noooooooooooooooo, his "reform" did nothing to repair this gross unfairness.
Reality is the very, very few persons under the Obama mandate to buy health insurance will be able to afford it even with the subsidies, due to its cost and the unfair tax treatment.
What would be fair ? Payment for health insurance should be, at a minimum, an adjustment to income for everyone making the payments.
To be truly fair and equal and not destructive of jobs, the Federal government should provide this as a Shared Benefit to all, funded from a national value added tax.
Does ObamaCare move towards a truly fair program ? Nope. He retains the superstructure of the old, corrupt, unfair system. It's going to be a cruel joke on all when (IF) it goes into full effect in a few years.
Word of the Day
"Plangent" - adjective [$10]
Plangent means loud, reverberating.
Sentence: The sound of the season should a plangent roar for tax reform, but it's not. The public is numbed or unaware of how grossly unfair the income tax system is. IF they knew many of them faced a 45% marginal tax rate on extra earnings from work, they would revolt.
Persons working for big companies or governments who provide that benefit don't notice it. That's because the company or government pays. The employee pays nothing and it never shows up on his taxes. The company deducts the premium expense as an ordinary business expense. Even IF the employee pays part of the expense in a share of the premium OR the co-pays under the policy, often that is structured to use pre-tax money: A portion of pay is diverted pre-tax into an account to be used for that purpose. So these people get health care from pre-tax money.
That's a good deal IF you can get it, since including Social Security and Medicare taxes, marginal rates are really very high even at low incomes. Adding the 15.3% Social Security and Medicare tax to the 25% bracket [which kicks in at $67,900 for joint filers, $34,000 for the single] and adding 5% state income taxes, too, one gets a very, very high marginal tax rate of just over 45% for the bulk of the middle class. Using pre-tax dollars means buying at a 45% discounts - quite a "sale".
What about persons working for small companies or even larger companies who do NOT provide to all employees ? They have to buy their own insurance. That is very expensive. I pay for our health insurance now. The plan is that of Mrs. B's former employer, as she was able to retain it as a retiree, having worked there over 30 years and being over 55. BUT we must pay the FULL costs for coverage of ourselves. That is about $14,000 per year. Not chicken feed. [By the way, I priced other plans and for a married couple in MA, the cost is about the same for the same "Preferred Provider" plan.]
A person in the 45% marginal tax regime must earn $25,450 to be able to pay that cost. You can easily see why many, many persons don't buy health insurance if their employer does not provide it. It is very, very unfair that those with GOOD JOBS from stronger employers get health insurance cheaper than those working for weaker, less financially able companies, often for less pay.
[NOTE: one might be able to deduct part of that cost in the itemized deductions, BUT that is limited to the amount over 7.5% of one's income. If one is a middle class family of two earners making $200,000 per year, that limit is $15,000 - hence NO deduction. see how capricious the system is ?]
What about the self-employed ? Can they use pre-tax dollars ? Yes, they can, IF the plan is "established under your business". For a sole proprietor, that means in the name of the sole proprietor. IF that condition is met, then the self-employed can take take an adjustment to income (that's good - it's before the adjusted gross income line and before all the limits on itemized deductions).
BUT if the policy is in the name of the sole proprietor's spouse, then NOPE, no adjustment. that person gets screwed and must use very costly after tax money to pay for the premium.
AND you might now guess that we are in that situation. The coverage we could retain from Mrs. B's former employer is in her name. I pay the same cost, but we get no income adjustment.
Treating the same expenditures differently for technical reason is simply unfair - no, it's grossly unfair. All payments for health insurance should at least be given an adjustment to income. That's still not a good as those working for big companies and governments get, as those get the coverage before those big Social Security and Medicare taxes. But it would be a start.
With all the focus on health insurance reform by Obama, you would have thought his supposedly "historic" "reform" would at least be roughly fair. BUT noooooooooooooooo, his "reform" did nothing to repair this gross unfairness.
Reality is the very, very few persons under the Obama mandate to buy health insurance will be able to afford it even with the subsidies, due to its cost and the unfair tax treatment.
What would be fair ? Payment for health insurance should be, at a minimum, an adjustment to income for everyone making the payments.
To be truly fair and equal and not destructive of jobs, the Federal government should provide this as a Shared Benefit to all, funded from a national value added tax.
Does ObamaCare move towards a truly fair program ? Nope. He retains the superstructure of the old, corrupt, unfair system. It's going to be a cruel joke on all when (IF) it goes into full effect in a few years.
Word of the Day
"Plangent" - adjective [$10]
Plangent means loud, reverberating.
Sentence: The sound of the season should a plangent roar for tax reform, but it's not. The public is numbed or unaware of how grossly unfair the income tax system is. IF they knew many of them faced a 45% marginal tax rate on extra earnings from work, they would revolt.
Friday, March 26, 2010
It's Just a Matter of Time ...
for US interest rates to go up ... a lot.
They are below equilibrium levels versus long term core inflation of 2%. And the supply is huge, a tidal wave of huge Treasury auctions as far as the eye can see. Corporate and mortgage competition is low due to the weak economy. What will have IF house sales grow to normal levels ? Demand for mortgages will grow precisely when the Fed is no longer a buyer, but is a seller.
The competition from corporations and households for loans is very weak. Household debt levels keep dropping. Banks flush with excess reserves put the money in T-bills and short term Treasury notes. When their customers start to want money - and when the economy is obviously stable so banks will be willing to lend - that source of demand will vaporize.
Foreign buyers have gotten a good return lately as the dollar strength gave them a bonus. But soon the dollar will stop going up and those buyers will face losses IF the dollar resumes its long term decline.
Yesterday's auction showed some weakness - WSJ: "A sudden drop-off in investor demand for U.S. Treasury notes is raising questions about whether interest rates will finally begin a march higher—a climb that would jack up the government's borrowing costs and spell trouble for the fragile housing market."
Maybe the calendar in Japan caused the drop-off. Or may it was the derivative market - WSJ: "Adding to the focus on the Treasury market's woes this week has been an unusual development in an important, but usually ignored, market: interest-rate swaps. These common derivatives entail contracts that typically involve trading one stream of interest income for another. And in the past week, investors are being paid more to own U.S. Treasuries than U.S. corporate bonds."
Why does this derivative market exist ? It's just a casino for hedge funds and banks to pits trading skills against each other. It serves no useful public purpose. And it can impact the "real" market for bonds. Get rid of it NOW.
The huge tidal wave of governmental demand for debt in the US will soon run into natural demand from a stable economy. That collision will cause trouble for the stock market, in my humble opinion.
Hence my neutral - bearish intermediate term outlook until that rate rise gets priced in.
Word of the Day
"Trenchant" - adjective [$10]
Trenchant means 1. lean, incisive (a trenchant comment); 2. forceful, effective and vigorous; 3. caustic, cutting (trenchant criticism); distinct, clear cut.
Sentence: Writing a trenchant blog every business day is not easy; a lack of ideas occasionally occurs and then ... I wing it.
They are below equilibrium levels versus long term core inflation of 2%. And the supply is huge, a tidal wave of huge Treasury auctions as far as the eye can see. Corporate and mortgage competition is low due to the weak economy. What will have IF house sales grow to normal levels ? Demand for mortgages will grow precisely when the Fed is no longer a buyer, but is a seller.
The competition from corporations and households for loans is very weak. Household debt levels keep dropping. Banks flush with excess reserves put the money in T-bills and short term Treasury notes. When their customers start to want money - and when the economy is obviously stable so banks will be willing to lend - that source of demand will vaporize.
Foreign buyers have gotten a good return lately as the dollar strength gave them a bonus. But soon the dollar will stop going up and those buyers will face losses IF the dollar resumes its long term decline.
Yesterday's auction showed some weakness - WSJ: "A sudden drop-off in investor demand for U.S. Treasury notes is raising questions about whether interest rates will finally begin a march higher—a climb that would jack up the government's borrowing costs and spell trouble for the fragile housing market."
Maybe the calendar in Japan caused the drop-off. Or may it was the derivative market - WSJ: "Adding to the focus on the Treasury market's woes this week has been an unusual development in an important, but usually ignored, market: interest-rate swaps. These common derivatives entail contracts that typically involve trading one stream of interest income for another. And in the past week, investors are being paid more to own U.S. Treasuries than U.S. corporate bonds."
Why does this derivative market exist ? It's just a casino for hedge funds and banks to pits trading skills against each other. It serves no useful public purpose. And it can impact the "real" market for bonds. Get rid of it NOW.
The huge tidal wave of governmental demand for debt in the US will soon run into natural demand from a stable economy. That collision will cause trouble for the stock market, in my humble opinion.
Hence my neutral - bearish intermediate term outlook until that rate rise gets priced in.
Word of the Day
"Trenchant" - adjective [$10]
Trenchant means 1. lean, incisive (a trenchant comment); 2. forceful, effective and vigorous; 3. caustic, cutting (trenchant criticism); distinct, clear cut.
Sentence: Writing a trenchant blog every business day is not easy; a lack of ideas occasionally occurs and then ... I wing it.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
What to Do ?
Many people are now turning attention to the future as the memories of the Panic of 2008 fade ... at least for those with jobs. The victims of the Wall Street and international bank lust for trading profits have not been forgotten, as a poll published yesterday shows high levels of "hate" for the finance industry. Maybe Congress will pass some true reform. Maybe they will fake it. Time will tell.
BUT the huge amounts of borrowing by the US, its States and cities, and many major developed nations will have to dealt with eventually. For now, I'll stick to the US. What is rather obvious to me now after the enacting of ObamaCare and its huge tax burden on higher income people, is that when combined with the coming huge tax increases on those same people (due to the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, which really helped only those above the AMT thresholds, viz. those making almost $1 million per year), that the ability of government to get more money from that well is nearly gone. They need to go after another pot of money.
Who will they target ? To me, it's obvious that big corporations will be the target, either through rate increases or technical changes or through more mandates. That means stock prices will be hurt.
But the title of this post is "What to Do ?", not "What will they do ?".
We need REAL reform. The elections of 2010 should be nationalized with a new Compact for Reform. Some party, or both, should adopt the following policies for the Compact for Reform.
1. No more secret earmarks, none. Forever. All appropriation requests are fully disclosed in Committee for 30 days in advance of any votes with sponsors identified.
2. Any lawmaker taking political contributions from any person or group benefiting from specific appropriation which they sponsor will be subject to ethics violation and fined - paid personally - equal to double the amount of the contribution. The public money MUST benefit the public, not special interest groups. Spending the public money must be based on reason and open argumentation, not bribes.
3. All taxes on jobs must be replaced with a value-added tax. High taxes on employing people are a cause - maybe THE cause - of long term high unemployment. A value-added tax shifts the burden to those spending the money, not working to create it. A value added tax on ALL goods makes those who consume imported goods pay for something to support the nation. Now production of those goods overseas and their consumption here adds NOTHING to the nation. This will be a huge shift, but a needed one.
4. All mandates on employers regarding employee benefits will be removed except ONE. This one mandate will be that ANY benefit provided to top management be equally provided to all employees in strict proportion to salary or wages (or that gives the lower pay levels more). An excise tax will make "top heavy" benefits prohibitively expensive. NO more will the bosses get great pensions and benefits when the workers get the shaft.
5. No more secret laws voted on by those who cannot have not read them. All bills in excess of ten pages shall be publicly disclosed for a minimum of thirty days.
6. A Fairness Commission will be created to compare all public sector wages and benefits to those in the private sector (the whole private sector, not just big companies), and shall take into account job security; small business will be a major part of the comparison. The commission will make its results public with recommendations for changes needed to equalize pay and benefits.
7. A new small business tax policy will remove ALL taxes on newly created businesses UNTIL they recover 100% of invested capital. This will apply to corporations, partnerships and sole proprietors.
Those simple seven reforms will shift governmental policy in America toward honesty, openness and pro-employment policies. Some can be done with rule changes in Congress. Some require laws. They should be adopted with large bipartisan majorities.
Word of the Day
"Fillip" - noun [$10]
Fillip means something tending to arouse or excite
Sentence: With adoption of the reforms of Bunkerman, appropriations bills and seats on Appropriations committees will no longer be a fillip for lawmakers and lobbyists. The strict standards will draw those devoted to public service, not to sticking their snouts in the trough.
BUT the huge amounts of borrowing by the US, its States and cities, and many major developed nations will have to dealt with eventually. For now, I'll stick to the US. What is rather obvious to me now after the enacting of ObamaCare and its huge tax burden on higher income people, is that when combined with the coming huge tax increases on those same people (due to the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, which really helped only those above the AMT thresholds, viz. those making almost $1 million per year), that the ability of government to get more money from that well is nearly gone. They need to go after another pot of money.
Who will they target ? To me, it's obvious that big corporations will be the target, either through rate increases or technical changes or through more mandates. That means stock prices will be hurt.
But the title of this post is "What to Do ?", not "What will they do ?".
We need REAL reform. The elections of 2010 should be nationalized with a new Compact for Reform. Some party, or both, should adopt the following policies for the Compact for Reform.
1. No more secret earmarks, none. Forever. All appropriation requests are fully disclosed in Committee for 30 days in advance of any votes with sponsors identified.
2. Any lawmaker taking political contributions from any person or group benefiting from specific appropriation which they sponsor will be subject to ethics violation and fined - paid personally - equal to double the amount of the contribution. The public money MUST benefit the public, not special interest groups. Spending the public money must be based on reason and open argumentation, not bribes.
3. All taxes on jobs must be replaced with a value-added tax. High taxes on employing people are a cause - maybe THE cause - of long term high unemployment. A value-added tax shifts the burden to those spending the money, not working to create it. A value added tax on ALL goods makes those who consume imported goods pay for something to support the nation. Now production of those goods overseas and their consumption here adds NOTHING to the nation. This will be a huge shift, but a needed one.
4. All mandates on employers regarding employee benefits will be removed except ONE. This one mandate will be that ANY benefit provided to top management be equally provided to all employees in strict proportion to salary or wages (or that gives the lower pay levels more). An excise tax will make "top heavy" benefits prohibitively expensive. NO more will the bosses get great pensions and benefits when the workers get the shaft.
5. No more secret laws voted on by those who cannot have not read them. All bills in excess of ten pages shall be publicly disclosed for a minimum of thirty days.
6. A Fairness Commission will be created to compare all public sector wages and benefits to those in the private sector (the whole private sector, not just big companies), and shall take into account job security; small business will be a major part of the comparison. The commission will make its results public with recommendations for changes needed to equalize pay and benefits.
7. A new small business tax policy will remove ALL taxes on newly created businesses UNTIL they recover 100% of invested capital. This will apply to corporations, partnerships and sole proprietors.
Those simple seven reforms will shift governmental policy in America toward honesty, openness and pro-employment policies. Some can be done with rule changes in Congress. Some require laws. They should be adopted with large bipartisan majorities.
Word of the Day
"Fillip" - noun [$10]
Fillip means something tending to arouse or excite
Sentence: With adoption of the reforms of Bunkerman, appropriations bills and seats on Appropriations committees will no longer be a fillip for lawmakers and lobbyists. The strict standards will draw those devoted to public service, not to sticking their snouts in the trough.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
We Are All ...
Bosons. At least our whole selves are.
There are two fundamentally different types of elementary particles: fermions and bosons. A fermion has intrinsic spin in half integral amounts: 1/2, 3/2 and so on. A boson has integral intrinsic spin: 0, 1, 2 and so on. Intrinsic spin is the angular momentum of the particle's intrinsic self, which is a point of infinite smallness. What causes it and what that spin "is" fundamentally is not known. For now, it just "is". It's quantized in multiples of 1/2 and it is conserved.
Fermions and bosons have extremely interesting, different properties in their aggregation. We, after all, aggregations of elementary particles, so their properties of aggregation are important.
No fermion can be in the same state, place and time and otherwise, as any other fermion. They just don't like being close to each other. They repel each other. Contrapuntally, bosons love to be in the same state. They gladly lie on top of each other [ no sex jokes, please ;) ]; they can be stacked on each other in huge numbers barring other repulsive forces.
Our world exists as it does because of the fermion repulsion: without it atoms would collapse.
Light photons are bosons: that's why light's intensity in a beam can increase on and on to extremely high levels. The photons are being stacked onto each other.
What does this have to do with humans ? I'm borrowing it allegorically to describe human natures and our history through space and time.
We are bosons by our natures. Humans form communities, social organizations, towns, cities, and nations. The history and path of these organizations tend to stick together and flow though space and time like a river.
Yesterday I was working hard on my German. German is a bit odd for an Indo-European language. The grammar of Latin is closer to Polish than it is to German. Many German verbs oddly change internal vowels in tenses other than the present. The ending on their adjectives and articles have irregular endings. Germans word order is weird. Why ? In my opinion, German got heavily modified by whatever language the original inhabitants of that part of Europe had BEFORE the proto-Germans moved in (maybe 4,000 years ago or more). For all that Nazi "racial purity" bs, German is a very, very impure mutation of old Indo-European.
Both Latin and Polish are much purer descendants of old Indo-European. I joke that Polish is mostly Latin grammar with all the words changed.
About 2,001 years ago, the Roman legions of Varus were wiped out in the battle of the Teutoberg forest by the German tribes led by Arminus. That ended the Roman effort to conquer the Germanic tribes in what is now Germany. If the Romans had won and stayed, the German language today would be a lot more like French or Italian than like modern German. And I would have a lot easier time learning it.
That single event cause the "river" of Germanic history, language and culture to flow separately from the rest of the Roman empire. Without it, the German river would have merged with that of Gaul (France), Spain and Italy. The Franks who later took over Gaul were a Germanic tribe. As were the Visigoths who took Spain. But so many of the existing sedentary peoples had lived centuries under Roman rule that their original Celtic languages changed and merged with Latin, making old French, Spanish and Italian. The Germanic of the invading Franks, Visigoths, and Lombards was mostly lost over time, overwhelmed by the vulgar language of the mass of common sedentary people.
The then separated German river flowed on its own path. The German langauge remained and evolved from its older mutant form. And I suffer daily studying it.
Markets
More up yesterday. At the prodding of a commentor yesterday, I looked at some charts. To me, the market is going where I had thought it would last fall, but took an extra six months & a twist/turn that threw me off: a "return to normalcy" pricing of around 1200 on the S&P.
The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are getting closer to their old highs as they did not have the heavy financial ("fins") weights. The effective zeroing of many fins is making the S&P and Dow look worse than indices without fins. The transports back that up, too. All those are at levels that I don't want to have any more than a "normal" long positions. I still am expecting a big pullback "soon". Krypto will be "some" equities selling every few % up, adding to cash for now.
PS: Krypto checked the portfolio this morning and then told me to sell some Pacific stock index funds & put the money in cash. The Pacific funds were 5% over their standard allocation, trigger the sell. Good doggie ... here's a biscuit.
Word of the Day
"Sodality" - noun [$10]
Sodality means a confraternity or association, especially a Roman Catholic religious guild or brotherhood.
Sentence: Toqueville in his famous book, Democracy in America, written circa 1840 and based on his travels in the United States, noted the plethora of clubs, fraternities, sodalities and other social organizations that its citizens formed and joined. In other words, he observed and remarked on our highly bosonic natures. Presumably, that nature in Americans was significantly more than existed in Europe at the time. American social mobility was at work.
There are two fundamentally different types of elementary particles: fermions and bosons. A fermion has intrinsic spin in half integral amounts: 1/2, 3/2 and so on. A boson has integral intrinsic spin: 0, 1, 2 and so on. Intrinsic spin is the angular momentum of the particle's intrinsic self, which is a point of infinite smallness. What causes it and what that spin "is" fundamentally is not known. For now, it just "is". It's quantized in multiples of 1/2 and it is conserved.
Fermions and bosons have extremely interesting, different properties in their aggregation. We, after all, aggregations of elementary particles, so their properties of aggregation are important.
No fermion can be in the same state, place and time and otherwise, as any other fermion. They just don't like being close to each other. They repel each other. Contrapuntally, bosons love to be in the same state. They gladly lie on top of each other [ no sex jokes, please ;) ]; they can be stacked on each other in huge numbers barring other repulsive forces.
Our world exists as it does because of the fermion repulsion: without it atoms would collapse.
Light photons are bosons: that's why light's intensity in a beam can increase on and on to extremely high levels. The photons are being stacked onto each other.
What does this have to do with humans ? I'm borrowing it allegorically to describe human natures and our history through space and time.
We are bosons by our natures. Humans form communities, social organizations, towns, cities, and nations. The history and path of these organizations tend to stick together and flow though space and time like a river.
Yesterday I was working hard on my German. German is a bit odd for an Indo-European language. The grammar of Latin is closer to Polish than it is to German. Many German verbs oddly change internal vowels in tenses other than the present. The ending on their adjectives and articles have irregular endings. Germans word order is weird. Why ? In my opinion, German got heavily modified by whatever language the original inhabitants of that part of Europe had BEFORE the proto-Germans moved in (maybe 4,000 years ago or more). For all that Nazi "racial purity" bs, German is a very, very impure mutation of old Indo-European.
Both Latin and Polish are much purer descendants of old Indo-European. I joke that Polish is mostly Latin grammar with all the words changed.
About 2,001 years ago, the Roman legions of Varus were wiped out in the battle of the Teutoberg forest by the German tribes led by Arminus. That ended the Roman effort to conquer the Germanic tribes in what is now Germany. If the Romans had won and stayed, the German language today would be a lot more like French or Italian than like modern German. And I would have a lot easier time learning it.
That single event cause the "river" of Germanic history, language and culture to flow separately from the rest of the Roman empire. Without it, the German river would have merged with that of Gaul (France), Spain and Italy. The Franks who later took over Gaul were a Germanic tribe. As were the Visigoths who took Spain. But so many of the existing sedentary peoples had lived centuries under Roman rule that their original Celtic languages changed and merged with Latin, making old French, Spanish and Italian. The Germanic of the invading Franks, Visigoths, and Lombards was mostly lost over time, overwhelmed by the vulgar language of the mass of common sedentary people.
The then separated German river flowed on its own path. The German langauge remained and evolved from its older mutant form. And I suffer daily studying it.
Markets
More up yesterday. At the prodding of a commentor yesterday, I looked at some charts. To me, the market is going where I had thought it would last fall, but took an extra six months & a twist/turn that threw me off: a "return to normalcy" pricing of around 1200 on the S&P.
The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are getting closer to their old highs as they did not have the heavy financial ("fins") weights. The effective zeroing of many fins is making the S&P and Dow look worse than indices without fins. The transports back that up, too. All those are at levels that I don't want to have any more than a "normal" long positions. I still am expecting a big pullback "soon". Krypto will be "some" equities selling every few % up, adding to cash for now.
PS: Krypto checked the portfolio this morning and then told me to sell some Pacific stock index funds & put the money in cash. The Pacific funds were 5% over their standard allocation, trigger the sell. Good doggie ... here's a biscuit.
Word of the Day
"Sodality" - noun [$10]
Sodality means a confraternity or association, especially a Roman Catholic religious guild or brotherhood.
Sentence: Toqueville in his famous book, Democracy in America, written circa 1840 and based on his travels in the United States, noted the plethora of clubs, fraternities, sodalities and other social organizations that its citizens formed and joined. In other words, he observed and remarked on our highly bosonic natures. Presumably, that nature in Americans was significantly more than existed in Europe at the time. American social mobility was at work.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Zzzzzzzzzzzz ...
Above is a photo of the real Krypto, a very happy dog and a super fund manager.
No post today as I slept late as I'm still recovering from a cold.
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