Tuesday, February 24, 2009

The Chart

I refer often to a 100 year Wall Chart on the wall (of course) of my office to see what the current situation looks like from a very long term point of view. The chart has various stock indices, GNP, earnings per share and major economic events marked in a 100 year period. It's a logarithmic scale, of course. The chart also permits one to add some facts to what today is often simply bloviating opinions.

Today's headline says the Dow Industrials has dropped to a low of 12 years. That is true.

Quiz: when did this occur last ?

Answer: 1974. Near the end of 1974, the Dow Industrials dropped below 600, which was roughly the level it has in the 1962 panic twelve years earlier.

Quiz #2: When did this event ( a 12-year low) occur before that time ?

Answer #2: 1932. In mid 1932, the Dow Industrials dropped below the low of 1914 when the NYSE re-opened after World War I commenced. That 1932 drop also broke under the Dow Industrial of 11 years prior in the post World War I recession.

In both cases, the exact bottom might not have been that day. But ... you can guess that those times were rather good times to stage in long term investments. And were poor - ultrapoor - times to sell out in fear.

OK, enough of the "All is well".

Word of the Day

"Aurochs" - noun (plural is same) [$10]; a Mencken word
Aurochs means an extinct wild ox, Bos primigenius, ancestor of dometic cattle and formerly native to many parts of the world. Also called urus.
Sentence: Have the bulls of Wall Street gone the way of the aurochs, or have they developed the ability to hiberate while the bears romp unchecked?

Le Mot du Jour

"S'effrondrer" - verb, pronomial; regular -er conjugation
S'effrondrer means to collapse, to plummet.
La Phrase: Hier, Les Bourses américaines se sont effrondrées de nouveau.
Sentence: Yesterday, the American stock markets collapsed again.


Bunkerman said...

Spin, that *** word you posted late yesterday in French is "tête de nœud"

Bunkerman said...

by the way, to make the oe ligature symbol, use Alt 0156

And the circumflex e is Alt 0234

Bud said...

Bman how did you like my characterization of you late yesterday ??

i also know you are an optimist and a capitalist.........but how can you completely ignore the tax hikes

our economy will NOT grow if taxes are going up.......higher taxes restrict growth.......their only purpose is to redistribute wealth...........or as Obama says 'spread the wealth'

Bud said...

i love history............but not when it comes to this bear market

mrG calls this crisis a 'once in a 100 years crisis' .......bankers don't know how to model for this

Bud said...

so A-fraud still lyin and hidin the truth........shocker

in 2007 A-fraud was travelling with this spic called Angel.......someone who is banned from mlb clubhouses cuz he used to deal steroids

i'm sure A-fraud will say he was just his driver or somethin

A-fraud a 'tete de noeud' indeed

mern said...

new addition to snipe list. the chix from the progressive ads.

spin making fun of randall. i got him in sept of 91 the same week randall cunningham broke his leg. so the name sorta picked him. they surely wud have won a super bowl that year if he wasnt hurt.............lol

ron paul is and was right. barry or mcsame r about the same. this wud have happened no matter who won in november. at least with barry we push through on stem cell research and the bible thumpin is over, for now. the elephants back to their old bible, talkin fiscal discipline.

to me thats like robert downey jr to not try heroin, while he is snorting some, but that is just me.

wow what a finish to a tragic sixers loss. that was an insane shot!

mern said...

now for some gud porn.

i luv lily thai!

Bunkerman said...

by the way, in nœud, the 'd' is silent.

Bunkerman said...

Bud, your characterization of me yesterday was correct.

I can take the heat.

mfl59 said...

this congresswoman just referred to the Treasury Secretary as "Mr. Greitner"....lmaooooooo

Bud said...

i heard that


Bunkerman said...

as far as taxes go, with the AMT as it is, that tax hike will not effect most people making up to $500,000

And over that, since the rich seem to just like to speculate in hedge funds and trading vehicles, I wonder whether making them pay more of the freight is really so bad.

Of course that's a generalization.

By the way, the middle income retiree on Social Security still pays by far the highest marginal rates - approaching 45%

Bunkerman said...

bankers should forget "modeling" and just make loans the old fashioned way.

That's probably a growth profession in finance - plain, boring mortgage loan officer.

Bunkerman said...

btw, I suspect that Obama's tax hike will not collect the projected sums as the pay for the "top" will likely be cut, as they are not worth it vs. results.

Bunkerman said...

Also, I guess I am a part "free-loader" vs. Obama's tax hikes as I've been buying lots of municipal bonds at and above 5% for good credits (in my personal opinion).

I'll have to bring back that old post for a reprise.

haha, that sure made "Jim" mad when I made that argument - proof - in "another" forum.

Bunkerman said...

Why does anyone listen to Elmer anymore ?

mern said...

shudnt we listen to the guy who created a lot of this of mess?

look at the eckerd college munis. u cant get in there with under a 1400 and a 3.8.

their insurer went out of biz and it got smoked.

its triple A, or it was. ive and my guy have done a ton of research. they r gud to go for the next 15 yrs.

ive got bids at 70 and 65. FWIW

Bud said...

mrG created this mess??? huh???


Bunkerman said...

no doubt Elmer's keeping rates so low for so long helped intensify the housing bubble.

And it made all those toxic subprime floaters look lower than they were.

And he opposed regulating hedge funds and derivatives, whihc gave knaves in Congress wha tthey needed to scotch it.

So yes, he bears much blame.

Spin-em said...

"spin making fun of randall."....only you would see that as "making fun"...you were being a sad sack..."again"...thought it was good name for a dog you owned.....thats all..Mr peaNUT

Bud said...

everyone on the planet was in full support of mrG after the 911 attacks

the economy came to a halt.......mrG cut and and cut some more

it kickstarted the economy in 2002...........and now all the revisionist history

mfl59 said...

just like Sean Hannity, Mr. G is a great American....

Bud said...

i didn't hear anyone sayin after 911

"don't cut rates mrG..........it will create a housing bubble that will have a devastating impact when it blows up"

whiny cry-babies......pfffffffffffffffffffffft

mfl59 said...

Since Obama was elected on November 4, 2008 the S&P has dropped 26% through last night, February 23.

In 1932, after FDR was elected, the market dropped until February 27, 1933. It then rose 100% over the next four months

Bunkerman said...

the rate cut was no problem, it's just the long time they were low AND the very low time they took to raise them, even with froth in housing.

mern said...

well u were right spin, it was a gud name for a dawg (my bad).

bud if u wud like ill send u my newsletters from 01 and 02, blasting greenspan and his easy money policies. take what greenspan did from 98-05, add in slick willy signing a republican lead bill to kill glass steagal, and then final nail in the coffin was letting bush let cheney run the country, using no fiscal discipline.

your spear chucker gonna catch a lot of the blame, and then palin get her chance to end the world.

i hope ron paul gets some traction before 2010!

Bud said...

'my newsleters from 01 and 02'


PS.......yes......please 'private email' them to me........i look forward to them alongwith bob's... 'ops expo open interest spreadsheet'

Spin-em said...

then I retract my azzhead comments and we are good buddies again..lool

Bunkerman said...

btw, I know all about taxes - I am in the process of reviewing and signing over 31 tax returns fr my businesses.

Such a ridiculous amout of paperwork. States are soo rapacious for money.

Bud said...

rapacious??? what does that even mean ???

is that one of those stupid $10 words

mfl59 said...

31 businesses? tax this man Mr. Obama....tax him until he can't sit down!!!!

Bunkerman said...

uh, Bud ... here's a hint ... what does "rape" mean ?

Bunkerman said...

five businesses - lots of states, though.

Total, I think I file about 50 tax returns.

Hint for Frosty: this is where all the endless "skim" comes from.

Bunkerman said...

btw, I don't own 100% of some.

Ooops, make that six businesess

mern said...

actually those letters r on a floppy disc. i wud have to hook up an old computer and connect to a printer.

but for u bud, anything.

i was looking at them recently, a few on a old laptop. while i was pulling from todd harrison and john succo, plus brian reynolds. by 2002 i was calling fannie maes books more cooked than enron.

i also said the oct lows of 2002 wud never old.............

this is the bear market we shud have gotten after daq 5k.

but instead take funds to 1% to fight deflation that never existed. kick start a housing bubble and commodity bubble that made daq 5k, look like a zit and not a bubble. then the coup da grass, tell congress people that ARM's r a great way for poor white trash, spear chuckers, wet backs, slopes and rag heads to get that first home. right before u jack rates up for 3 straight yrs.

sir elmer fudd indeed!

mfl59 said...

"ARM's r a great way for poor white trash, spear chuckers, wet backs, slopes and rag heads to get that first home"


dont forget about the Honorable Sen Chris Dodd

mfl59 said...

are your businesses feeling the effects of this "recession" bunkerman?

Bunkerman said...

not at all - no effect.

mfl59 said...

interesting....good time to be a bookie i guess....


Bud said...

the honorable chris dodd


go Ben go !!!!!


Spin-em said...

Laissez les bons temps rouler.

Bunkerman said...


Bud said...

listen you french faggots...........enuff with the bullshit

i have no idea what you guys are talkin about

PS.........my apologies frosty......these euro's are the real queers

Bunkerman said...

lol Bud, you are such a Philistine


Bunkerman said...

hmm I wonder what B***s*** is in French ?

Spin-em said...

Fat Tuesday buddeeee Let the good times roll.....take your man out on the town tonight

Bunkerman said...

the dictionary says its either "la connerie" or "la foutaise"

A three * word.

That goes into the card file.

Thanks, Bud for getting me to look that good one up.

That's B***s*** = C'est des conneries! ... or ... c'est de la foutaise !

There's even a verb, to B***s*** = déconner meaning dire des conneries.

Great stuff !


Bunkerman said...

btw, Bud, "faggot" i French is le pédé for a man, la tante for a woman.

Spin-em said...

looooooool bunk

maverick said...

curious here Bman...what type of businesses are you involved in?

Bud said...

how do you say 'i have a wide stance' in french ??

" les A-fraud " ?

mern said...

great thread today


mfl59 said...

Bunkerman did Mrs B ever pull the trigger on GE?

Bunkerman said...

hmmm "wide stance" ?

'stance' is la position.

the missionary position is la position du missionary.

I'm working on it, Bud. It's a bit figurative.

Bud said...

seems to me like the only ones that been 'pullin the trigger' have been GE shareholders

that's crap......goin lower......bill o'reilly tells me every nite

Bunkerman said...

No she does not like GE - they sold her a crappy washing machine a few years ago.

I did buy it for my Fido Fund at 12, one of many "early" buys :((

She is kicking my butt, of course.

Bud said...

Bman !!

are you kiddin me ?? where have you been ??? google Larry Craig please


Bunkerman said...

The French seem to use a verb for "to take" with "la position", not the one literally meaning 'to have'.

Wide is "large" - the "g' pronounced as the J in Jacques.

Perhpas a good translation is ->

Je prende une large position.

=> I take a wide stance.

Bunkerman said...

lol, I know what you guys mean by "wide stance"

But is that what Larry Craig said ?

Bud said...


GE lookin good here

Bunkerman said...

OK, I searched "Larry Craig wide stance" - now I fully understand.

I was thinking something else


Spin-em said...

"this market is such a pain in the ass" .looooooooooooooool

thanks jim

does that mean next month is free?

Bud said...

GE fire

tks scarlett knight

mfl59 said...

"GE fire"


Bud said...

some good ole fashion ping-pong today

my skills a bit rusty.......but we'll take what we can get

i am sure the 'spreadsheet' queer knew this rally was comin.....pffffffffffffffffffffft

Spin-em said...

"helluva call bob".."thanks pal"