Friday, April 24, 2009

Gold

Well, well, well ...

FT: "SHANGHAI/BEIJING, April 24 – China revealed on Friday that it had quietly raised its gold reserves by three-quarters since 2003, increasing its holdings to 1,054 tonnes and confirming years of speculation it had been buying. Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), told Xinhua news agency in an interview that the country’s reserves had risen by 454 tonnes from 600 tonnes since 2003, when China last adjusted its state gold reserves figure. ...

"China’s reserves were now the fifth biggest in the world, with only six countries holding more than 1,000 tonnes, she said. ...

" 'The comments indicate that China will buy more gold as reserve to improve its foreign reserve portfolio. This is a trend,' said Yao Haiqiao, president of Longgold Asset Management.
Hou Huimin, vice general secretary of the China Gold Association, said China should build its reserves to 5,000 tonnes. 'It’s not a matter of a few hundred, or 1,000 tonnes. China should hold more because of its new international status, and because of the financial crisis,' he said.
'The financial crisis means the U.S. dollar value is changing fast, and it may retreat from being the international reserve currency. If that happens, whoever holds gold will be at an advantage.'

"The European Central Bank recommends its member banks hold 15 percent of their reserves in gold, but among Asian nations the percentage is far smaller, said Albert Cheng, World Gold Council managing director for the far east. "

China should be buying some gold for its monetary base. This is bullish for gold, by the way, over the long term. It shows a huge potential buyer for the gold in European central banks and the IMF gold, if those institutions are stupid enough to sell their gold. The amount of Chinese buying is a lot, but not quite as much as the incremental amounts going into gold ETFs over the same period.

Gold

For a few years, I've been watching and buy & selling gold. I follow the monthly gold chart for guidance on value. Long term, readers know I'm bullish. I sold a lot around $1,000 last year and re-bought some around 750 early this year. From the monthly chart there is a very long term uptrend line dating back to the bottom in 2000-1 that is about 600 now. Another multi-year trend line now exists dating to 2006 that is around 750 now. So I'm still not a buyer, and will wait for a better price. Chartwise, the recent failure to punch through the peak prices in early 2008 shows a bearish pattern, or at best a long consolidation pattern.

I invest in gold three ways: the ETFs in a retirement account, physical gold American Eagle coins, and a gold stock fund in a retirement accounts. Long term gains in gold are taxed at 28%, so this bifurcation helps me keeps taxes low.

It's Wasn't All a US Bubble.

FT: "The number of Spanish unemployed rose sharply in the first quarter of this year to more than 4m, confirming Spain’s position as the European Union state worst affected by job losses during the global economic crisis. Unemployment rose to 4.01m, or 17.4 per cent of the workforce, up from 13.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, the National Statistics Institute said on Friday.

"Spain’s economy had grown rapidly in recent years on the back of a surge in home construction, and the collapse of the housing market wiped out nearly 700,000 building jobs over the past year. In the latest quarter, however, it was in the services sector where most jobs were lost. "

A housing bubble in Spain, too. And the UK. And others. One should keep these facts in mind when hearing all the handwringing and anguish about this crisis.

Markets

Amazon revenues up: "revenues rose 18.2% year/year to $4.89 bln vs the $4.76 bln consensus" from Briefing.com. What happened to the Depression ?

I am doing nothing, waiting for better prices.

Word of the Day

"Obtrude" - verb [$10]
Obtrude means (intransitive) to be or become obtrusive; (transitive) to thrust forward importunely.
Sentence: Today's "stress test" reports to bank CFOs and the inclusion of counterparty risk in them will likely obtrude uncomfortably, like a poke in the eye with a sharp stick, into staid mindset of these cluster fubars*.

["fubar" is WW II slang for F***ed Up Beyond All Recognition. I wonder if I can translate that into French ? Hmmm I think so ... ]

Le Mot du Jour

Reading parts of Le Monde this morning was fun. I'm going to break form a bit here and copy an entire paragraph, then paraphrase it. Remember Jerome Kerviel, the trader who lost about $6 billion for Societe General ? It's about him.

Le Monde: "Jérôme Kerviel, le trader accusé d'avoir fait perdre 4,9 milliards d'euros à la Société générale, aurait investi 800 milliards d'euros entre 2005 et 2007 (achats et ventes), selon son nouvel avocat Olivier Metzner, pour qui ces dérives ne pouvaient pas passer inaperçues de l'"employeur" : "C'est deux fois le budget de la France et 120 fois le budget du ministère de la justice ! A moins d'être non-voyant, on ne peut pas ne pas le voir", relève Me Metzner."

Mr. Kerviel's lawyer say the aggregate buys and sells of Mr. Kerviel totaled E800 billion ! And such sums, being twice the national budget of France and 120 times the budget of the ministry of Justice, could not have gone unnoticed. His point, I presume, is that Mr. Kerviel was simply trading under his bosses supervision and should not be fired under French law. Maybe he has a point.

"Inaperçu, e" - adjective
Inaperçu means unnoticed. The usual usage is with the verb passer, "passer inaperçu" meaning to go unnoticed.
La Phrase: Est-ce que Ken Lewis a crû que l'affaire de Merrill Lynch passerait inaperçue ?
Sentence: Did Ken Lewis believe that the Merrill Lynch affair would go unnoticed?

37 comments:

Bud said...

F good report


depressflation....pffffffffffft

Bud said...

14.7 unemployment in spain...........doesn't surprise me

the euro's have always had double digit inflation........is the spear chucker watching?? he wants to convert america into a euro-style economy

Bunkerman said...

Roughly, FUBAR translates for people as "foutu dans la merde au-dessus de la toute reconnaissance".

For plans, it would be "foutu la merde ..."

"Foutu" is the past participle for "foutre" which means "to do" in a rather vulgar & offensive connotation.

;)


Leaving out the small words, FBUAR in French becomes FMATR. That almost sounds French.

Langauges can be fun !

;)

Frosty said...

salmon fishing season in full swing...in the market for a chumboy...must be willing to kissaazz relentlessly, shine shoes, wash boat, can handle a big cockblock, tight turban wrap, brown....bunkerboyz know anyone.

I think so.

Bunkerman said...

lol chumboy ... hmmm frosty, in hunting season perhpas you'll need a gun bearer, too, b'wana.

Bud said...

no can do


gotta clean out the jim's garage and install a couple flatscreens in the theater room.......also gotta do a complete biff and wax


anyway.....salmon fishing.....do all our hobbies involve killing animals ??

Bud said...

wtf is a 'gun bearer' ? b'wana


huh ??? the guy who cleans the shotgun ?

Bud said...

www.blueridgearsenal.com


that's where i gonna lessons from.........125bux for beginners

also gonna do my purchase there.....or maybe a gun show........i'm a total novice so gun show too advanced for me

Bunkerman said...

oh, man .. Bud ... have you never seen a Tarzan movie ?

The first one with Maureen Sullivan was the calssic.

A gun bearer is a fellow who carried the big rifle for the Great White Hunter in the African bush, or in India jungle or where ever.

"B'wana" was how the gun & baggage bearers addressed him & other "European" men.

sheesh ...

;)

mfl59 said...

I reiterate...

Be careful Bud...you don't want to shoot your dick off....

Bunkerman said...

If you're an FL resident, you can't buy handguns there. Must buy in FL.

Good idea to avoid gun show, unless you are knowledgeable.

But buying a new weapon, there is less risk.

Many dealers are really jacking up proces.

Bud said...

wait..........so if i buy a gun in virginia.........i can't take it to florida with me legally ?? that seems odd

Bud said...

ace ....why are you so concerned about my dick ??? oh wait......i know why


f'ng queer

Bunkerman said...

true, mfl - Bud, don't carry an auto like in the movies, esp cocked & locked, pointing you know where ;)

A hammerless revolver has less risk.

Bunkerman said...

You have to buy the gun in your state of residence.

One can take them anywhere, providing one obeys the crazy-quilt patchwork of laws.

Bunkerman said...

they will ask for ID proof, btw. and run the instant background check.

For a new buyer, that might take an hour or ...

Bunkerman said...

however, if you have a VA driver's license and residence there, you'r OK to buy there.

Don't mention living in FL.

When buying a gun, it's best to say what you want, shut up & just answer the questions.

Spin-em said...

bring it onthe jet azzhead..you'll be fine....I think so

mfl59 said...

one comment and you rush to the queer commnets.....

"mission accomplished"

indeed

Bunkerman said...

good point, spin.

taking one on a plane even in checked luggage can cause trouble.

Bunkerman said...

you can transport interstate in a car trunk easily. For SUV, need a locked case of some kind.

Bunkerman said...

as you can see, there are lots of rules nowadays.

Bud said...

oh.....that was a setup ???.......i guess i swung too hard there


lmaoooooooooooooooooooo

Spin-em said...

good way to see if gitmo has a golf course b4 they shut er down....lol

Bunkerman said...

lolol if you go to a gun show, I suggest leaving the turban home

;)))

Bud said...

i don't wear a turban Bman ...........don't listen to these f'ng pigs !!!


john secada indeed

mfl59 said...

john secada? Bob said you look like Lance Bass....

Bunkerman said...

jeez, Bud ... another strike. you're swinging wildly.

I know that you don't.

Frosty said...

Sal you want to attend a gun show at some point...go early before the open and buy a peice from the crowd waiting to sell or trade...you want something that can't be traced...no doubt your mouth will write a check you aazzz can't case someday...just sayen...this isn't middle school.

I'll leave a light on.

Bud said...

i sure am Bman...........just so busy in l-aquarium de requiens.........haven't had time to work on my swing


oh btw......ZION .....nailed it


merci jim !!!!



PS....sorry ace......not this time

Bunkerman said...

oh, I flipped that bit of CCJ I added at 14.

Down to core in Fido Fund now in that name.

Frosty said...

atta boy bunky...still have the touch indeed...no need to be hyperactive to bank good skim...well played sir.

mfl59 said...

anyone else see mern on the tv show "The Cougar"?

Frosty said...

"I'm not one of those folks who makes declarations about bottoms and tops, but I will say that this strength and the underlying support bodes well."...your the best jim.

RUN BUNKY RUN

Bunkerman said...

hmmm maybe I should get off margin in Obama Fund ...

Spin-em said...

Bunk ..you have a fine weekend sir..thanks.....cya SPIKE!!!

Bunkerman said...

yes, fine weather here.

Homemade pizza & beer tomorrow;

bunktini & circus dog party tonight with Spikie leading the group.

Enjoy the weekend.