Monday, May 11, 2009

Monday Morning Ramblings

Calls of "overbought" and "overvalued" and "extended" are raining onto us à propos the stock market. All true, except the "overvalued" claim. Those pundits point to current PEs. That one is so imbecilic as to almost be ignorable. Driving using the rear view mirror as a primary visual indicator would be considered rather stupid by everyone. Anyone looking at long term charts showing stock prices and earnings in prior severe recessions would "know" that the PE is the trough is irrelevant. What matters are earnings one year in the future.

So what are earnings going to be in 2010 ? A small gain over 2009 trough earnings ? Or a small discount from 2006 earnings ? Or what ?

My Obama Fund is predicated on 2010 earnings being the latter. The bears would say sell the rally since it will be the former. The distribution of expectations is what makes markets volatile as one group takes command, then the other, sort of like a closely matched bout of boxing.

But looking at charts, one can see instantly that all the market has done in this rally is recover to its levels of the fall of 2008. The Obama inaugural sell-off has been reversed. That's it.

Futures are down this morning. Good. Maybe I'll get a good pullback to load up again.

I am also studying the natural gas market. Obama's greenie nonsense "might" make many coal plants shift to natural gas. I've heard anecdotal evidence of that. And with a whiff of industrial demand, that market's glut might get taken up. Natural gas rose a lot last week, about 20% from the lows. That might just be short covering, hedging or new longs. The natural gas ETF saw big increases in volume. IF I do anything, it will NOT be to buy that ETF. It's a loser for anything but short term trading as the monthly rolls kill it.

I put some money back into my commodities account and would buy some more distance futures. IF I decide to do it. I have lots of study to do before that.

Word of the Day

"Jejune" - adjective [$10]
Jejune means 1. lacking nutritive value; 2. lacking interest or significance; 3. lacking maturity: puerile.
Sentence: Writing on the news pages of the Wall Street Journal has sunk to the jejune level of sophomore* journalism clases.

*see bonus below.

Le Mot du Jour

"Éxiger" - verb, transitive, conjugates like manger.
Éxiger means to erect, to set up, to establish (+ en ); S'éxiger means to set oneself up.
La Phrase: Des dirgeants européenes veulent éxiger le socialisme d'État en model pour l'economie du monde. Ils ont tort.
Sentence: Some European leaders want to set up state socialism as a model for the world economy. They are wrong.

*Bonus: a durable 5,000 year old concept: the "sophomore" and the "sophmoric".

The English word for "sophomore" derives from the Greek compound word, "sophos-moros" meaning "clever fool. It was first used in English in 1688 in Cambridge. BUT there is a Sumerian word transliterated as "galam-huru" that means the identical thing - "clever fool" - literally. The word is used in an essay in Sumerian literature that is a type of verbal contest between higher level students and lower level ones.


Bunkerman said...

Here is my best guess for how to say, "The shark tank is on fire" in German.

Das Haifischaquarium brennt.

Remember to keep the capital "H" - all nouns in Germn are capitalized. Also, this might be wrong as I am a raw novice at German.

Bunkerman said...

I've alos ordered unabridged dictionaries for Spanish, Italian, German and Polish, so soon I'll know how to say "Go to Hell, Jim" and "ass-kisser" in six languages.


mern said...

pretty shocking that the banks r doing this.............

bman thoughts?

deja vu anyone? didnt the nazzy have a huge rally into the end of may 2001, to the point where everyone said the bear market was over?

not understanding how the fins lead us out of this bear market, when they were the previous bull market leaders?

guess time to buy more BAC puts.

gas almost 3.

say it with me. DEPRESSFLATION. remember dick morris, from fox, just invented that word 2 weeks ago.

i wonder if mccain won if the s&p would be up this much?

aroid, first pitcher a dinger!

my first thought, "whats he on now?!?"

whats chase utley on?

die lakers die!

mern said...

ive applied for over 60 jobs.

0 interviews

0 responses

not even a FU email back.

"the recession is over"

where? fantasy land.......

got a couple nibbles on the house but nothing real serious.

i may buy some blown up landscapers around here. they all financed their business's with debt and mortgages, so any downtick in business killed them.

after looking, ive determined enough in this area r retired and cant do it, and there is enough people still not wanting do it.

frankly i wouldnt mind running something like that and doing something tangible.

still costa rica looks great, but i need to sell this house!

and if i stay on the wagon, i cud get upto 3000 calories a day and stay here at 152.

i dont know if 150 is possible.

Bud said...

interesting article.......but nuthin new

american banks are sick.....very sick......everyone knows that.............they are in intensive care......and the last-rights preacher was sent home

Bud said...

no question mern................A-fraud is fully juiced

he is on test for that.....what a f'ng scumbag

Bud said...

who says the recession is over ?? we are going to have negative GDP for the rest of the year

job losses still mounting

Bud said...

tks Bman

unbelievable how much coin the shark tank has put in my pocket

remember i know nuthin about stocks.........i am merely a ping-pong player

danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Spin-em said...


Bud said...

Bman are you going to be reallocating into DRYS ??........pretty large and quick dip ther

Spin-em said...

"remember i know nuthin about stocks"

awwww shucks.... golly

lyin fn scumbag

Bud said...

Bman do you believe in the birth/death model the labor dapartment uses to calculate the non-farm payrolls number ??

alan abelson thinks it is bogus and hiding about 200k plus job losses a month

Bunkerman said...

hmmm my course say "thank you very much" is "danke sehr"

ahh I see now ...

"danke vielmals !" = "many thanks !"

Hmm you must have another German source, Bud.

I need to learn about these compound words in German.

Bunkerman said...

I knew about all that, mern. Hmm so a bank must mark to market its assets, but not it's liabilities ?

Gosh, that's consistent.

And some banks ARE buying bank debt at discounts - it's not just accounting.

mern said...


The recession is over.

The question is how long this bull market will last and whether a period of stagnation will occur once the economy recovers to its prior level.

come on bud, u gotta know who wrote that!

Bunkerman said...

I heard a guy on Blabberg agree with me this morning - the recession's over.

Unemployment/jobs lag the bottome, btw. Well-known fact.

Uh mern ... to run a landscaping business, esp. in FL, you need Spanish.

Hmmm I just started Spanish lessons.

¿Cómo está usted?

mfl59 said...

Mern do you know a lad names Corey Reischer? soccer for a soccer club near you I believe...

Bunkerman said...

btw, Bud, that "v" in German is pronounced like "f"

Bud said...

does jeffrey lacker read this blog ??

accuses american financial instituions of " excessive risk taking "

Bunkerman said...

No DRYS - that guy is nuts - printing shares like Daniel Dreew on Eire Railroad.

mern said...

never heard of him dr. leo.

i cant read or write, but its hard not know some spanish, down here. half the guys on my team speak it.

its an easy language to learn

Bunkerman said...

look, the unemployment numbers are computed several ways. One is a DIRECT POLL.

Birth/death does not affect that.

Sure, they get adjusted a lot as more data comes in. But there are lots of statisticians working hard on that.

As for long term systematic error, it's just not there.

Comsumer spending rebounds - that checks, too.

Abelson's was a bear since 1974 - my entire market life.

Bunkerman said...

and ADP has hard data, too.

I don't see the big error.

Doomsters like Abelson will always find something to groan about. If he can't find it, his beefer bear buddies will feed him some meat.

mfl59 said...

actually Bunkerman, since mern is your friend and not your elder, the usted should not be used...

Como estas tu?

Bunkerman said...

well, that is something I have not learned the details of yet. So I chose the safe "usted" route. Differnet cultures go "familiar" at different levels.


mern said...

geesh lol

Bunkerman said...

I just had one Spanish lesson so far ... plus some extra reading, etc.

It's odd that Spanish has two verbs for "to be" depending on the actual meaning.

maverick said...

neighbor lost his job last month and best friend last mernie said the interviews are scarce....unemployment going over 10% soon...guess things are improving

mern said...

just found a dry cleaner with 2 locations. sales down from 580 to 490 in past yr.

asking price was over 500, now he wants like 300.

i like the business's that throw off cash.

i bet u cud get a nice discount, on the bull market room, if u paid in hundreds.

did i mention how hot cramer has been lately? (he blew a 5 day wad on the banks, friday) ( i thought if u needed money in the next 5 yrs, to get out of stocks??? no one has tried to kill this guy, yet? AMAZING!)

1934 redux, indeed!

Frosty said...

gonna start a combination dog wash and sperm bank...have immdediate openings for experienced help...Mark you can wash the dogs....aazzhead he can, well u know, provide the happy fiinsh.

Bunkerman said...

these auto BKs are giving new definition to "cramdown"

there will be unintended consequences of these.

Bud said...

you see this Bman............ths spear-chucker gonna tax me out of business

mfl59 said...

you arent a securities dealer son...wake up

Bunkerman said...

sounds like they paln to go after schemes to defer gains, etc; and limit tax free buildup insurance.

The life insurance part might be tough to get passed.

Bud, you are already paying ordinary income taxes on your trading income. Relax.

Frosty said...

Uh Bud...I just posted your dream job be paid for something you would otherwise do for free.... ppffttt.

Spin-em said...


mfl59 said...

Bud what did you shoot yesterday?

sandbagger indeed....

Frosty said...

cramdown" "there will be unintended consequences of these."...your hero and César Chávez are book club buddies Bunky...private sector a ward of the state...your only chance is Connecticut to secede...lead my a large kbar totting , machine gunshooten, spam eaten quick man who speaks multiple tounges.

Bud said...

you guys are very relaxed about this trader tax.........big mistake

PS......general von gerstadt was pretty relaxed at dunkirk too.......i'm pretty sure Bman know happened there

Frosty said...

free month in the tank I see...and now the wing tax..."friend" 4 a side half enough...looken for skim in all the wrong places indeed...woof woof.

Bud said...

meredith whitney on cnbc today ?? yup..........get your popcorn ready Bman

Bunkerman said...

uh frosty, I live in Massachusetts.

Bunkerman said...

Dunkirk .... Does a bear S*** in the woods ? Of course I know all about that. It's quite interesting, btw.

Bunkerman said...

I gave up in Babblevision (aka CNBC)

I work on my languages in my office in spare time (i. e. most of the time; collecting skim is an easy business), with Blabberg on mute.

Bunkerman said...

maybe I should get some land in the deep woods in Quebec. Or Maine near the border ?

Frosty said...

Massachusetts Connecticut...Zhob Quetta...flazzhole aazzhole...ppffttt

Bunkerman said...

hey, SW Connecticut is beefer heaven - I do NOT live there.

I live in the land of the Minutemen ...

Bunkerman said...

Bsides, Connecticut is dominated by ... Yalies. yuck !


Bud said...

Bman are you aware your proletariat credentials are severley damaged with all the harvard - yale talk ??

it's downright are a member of the privileged ruling classes.........end of story

Bud said...

i have no clue what any of frsoty's post today meant......none.....i'm completely lost..........i get no reaction after reading them

he might as well be posting in sumerian

Spin-em said...


Spin-em said...


Spin-em said...



Spin-em said...

why should we believe any golf score he posts mike?..loool