Friday, May 29, 2009

TGIF and Hmmmm ....

Strange news coming out ...

FT: "Japan’s industrial output bounced back 5.2 per cent in April compared with the previous month, a stronger rise than analysts expected "

And "India’s economy grew a better-than-expected 5.8 per cent in the first three months of 2009 "

Copper prices are rising decisively over $2.00/lb.

I suppose the doomsters can find something bad in that data. But in my humble opinion, up is up. Why overthink this ? Last fall was a panic caused by beefer Viking raiders, everyone got scared and stopped buying or ordering everything, so the economy fell off the cliff. But that can only last so long. Eventually people start living again.

It's like 1974 when the Arab oil embargo hit. Panic ... gas lines ... stocks fall 50% ... economy nosedives and bounces along the bottom for six months ... then life continues ... stocks rise 100% over the next year. Very long term, some troubling things exist that might hurt GROWTH later, but until the economy gets back to where it was, that resistance won't be felt.

Obama Fund is well positioned IF this scenario plays out. I chose many stocks in sectors that performed excellently after the 1974 air-pocket. Time will tell.

Scotch Whisky

Scotch drinkers: check out this site -

And here's a fine glass to best enjoy your fine Scotch whisky:

I drink my finest Scotch whiskies in a glass like this. I prefer the finest Scotches with just a small ice cube, which I let partly melt as I smell the aromas and enjoy the visual pleasures of the fine Scotch adhering to the glass as I tip and lightly swirl and sniff it. Then I sip it ... the partly melted ice puts it at the perfect temperature, about 50F and the bit of water releases the flavor and gives the Scotch better mouth-feel as the alcohol burn is reduced just enough.

I've visited the Royal Mile Whiskies store in Edinburgh. It's just a little shop, but has super selections and the staff was really helpful. I bought six bottles [each costing over $400]and had them shipped directly to home. This works OK if you limit it to four or six bottles, as they said they've never had a problem with customs.

[By the way, there is a store in London, too. I walked past it on my visit there on the way to the British Museum.]

So what if you want a good Scotch here in the US, without buying it from Scotland? Here are my tested recommendations.

Finest: Johnny Walker Blue Label. About $200 per bottle or so, depending where you buy it. This is a blend of superb single malts and has the mouth-feel and richness of a fine cognac.

Medium: Glenlivet French Oak Finish. About $40 per bottle, depending on the store and exchange rate. It's a single malt with a better, richer taste that the usual Glenlivit which is quite good.

Modest: Teacher's Highland Cream. I think one can get a 1.5 liter bottler for about $25 or so from memory. This Scotch whisky has the flavors of the fine Cardhu malts used in Johnny Walker whiskies, but is much cheaper. Best value.

By the way, just so you don't appear as a heathen or Philistine, it's spelled Scotch whisky, but conversely it's Irish whiskey. Only scotch is properly deemed a "whisky" - all the rest are "whiskey". We do have to let the Scottish people and their spirits have that respect- they invented it and we are grateful to them for that. Bourbon is an American originated whiskey made with over 50% corn. And Rye is originally a term used for whiskey made with over 50% rye grain, but is also slang for the many "American" blended whiskies like Seagram's, etc.

Word of the Day

"Liminal" - adjective [$10]
Liminal means 1.a. of or relating to a transitional or initial stage; 1.b. marginal, insignificant; 2. occupying a position on or on both sides of, a boundary or threshold.
Sentence: Quite a lot of recent economic data has liminal qualities portending new cycle of economic growth is commencing. It's not certain, but when is anything certain about economies or stocks ?

Le Mot du Jour

"Canard" - noun, masculine
Canard means 1. (Culinary) duck, (oiseau, male) drake; 2. (journal) paper, *rag; 3. (= fausse note) faire un ~ to hit a false note; 4. (terme d'affection) mon (petit) ~ my pet. Several idioms such as "Il fait un froid du canard" meaning "It's freezing cold.", but more literally, "It's cold as a duck":
La Phrase: Il fait un froid du canard aujourd'hui- 50F. Qu'est-ce qui s'est passé à réchauffement de la planète ?
Sentence: It's freezing cold today - 50F. What happened to global warming?


Bud said...

lemme get this right

you are comparing the arab oil embargo to the credit crisis of 2008 ?? huh ???

what a bunch of thumping tosh

Bud said...

400bux per for 6 bottles

a common f'ng man indeed

Bud said...

excellent discussion on whiskey Bman.............i drink blue label myself

danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!

mern said...

although i havent read a word from minyaville, id speculate this is the thought process.

the fins lead the last bull market. the next bull market will not be lead by the fins. this bear market rally is being lead by the fins, so there is no way this is a new bull market.

the economy is still contracting, while inflation is going up smartly.

the inverse relation between the $ and stocks remains close to 100%. while stocks plunged 50 to 70% the buck rallied, 25%.

during this past rally, the $ is down about 12%.

either stocks go and the $ gets killed (which is probably the lesser of two evils and a decision made a long time ago). or the $ rallys and the bear market wears on.

ive spent this week looking at many small business's in many different sectors. restaurants, bars, landscaping, pool cleaning. u know the dumb shit and graduate from UD can grasp.

im looking at a few delis in the nicer upscale building in tampa and clearwater. OMFG, i cant believe what ive been seeing! the building have no traffic, NONE!

these delis have no business at all! i saw one gud one and he wants 3 times

when u got out of the bunk u saw how bad ohio is.

the tampa area, imo, is in a depression, but inflation is ramping...........

Bunkerman said...

it's not the proximate cause that is similar; it's the sudden panic & relief that is.

mfl59 said...

pretty much spot on minyanville, mern.....although they have a new guy who thinks BAC is worth $50 and thinks the SPX will be at 1200 by July....Toddo is getting bearish...

I remember when "jim" called you an idiot for watching the US dollar...."mern its not relevant"

Bunkerman said...

methinks you are thinking too much, mern

dollar, schmoller.


mfl59 said...

Bud may i suggest the stack and tilt as your new model for a golf swing? or perhaps the Happy Gilmore?

85% of your effort should be on wedges and putting....i guess Mr. PGA professional who can't break 80 forgot to tell you that...

"$150/hour for a lesson indeed"

Bunkerman said...


dollr down is bad since foreign investmetn hindered.

dollar up is bad since US exports hurt.

Dollar flat is good, I suppse.

What thumpimng tosh !

The dollar is an effect, not a cause.

Bunkerman said...

Q1 Core PCE Q/Q +1.5% vs +1.5% consensus, advanced +1.5%

no inflation.

mfl59 said...

no comment on GDP Bunkerman?

selective data points indeed

Spin-em said...

$20 a case

Bunkerman said...

Sheesh ..

To paraphrase Gen Patton on German attack at the Bulge:

Let it drop as far as possible in Q1

That just makes Q2 growth more likely.

Bunkerman said...

it's not from whence we came, it's whither we go


mern said...

leisman just cursed at santelli in russian!

santelli just crushed the recovery and was harping on employement. carl said something about it being a lagging indicator.

santelli halted him mid sentence " i dont care if its lagging or per historic data, this recovery is all hype until some jobs r created and thats not happening"

carl just looked dumb founded. he is lucky he has a job becuase he is mentally retarded.

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm I remember getting Blue Ribbon or Blatz for $4 a case.

those were good times.

Bunkerman said...

thanks re the drinking writing .... that is one subject aht I am a true expert.

a 1930s style drinker - no fluffy accoutrements ...

One of my biggest embarrassents for the male sex was when a big guy come up the the Athletic Club bar after a workout & ordered a "Coors' light" arghhhhhhhh


I was drinking Irish on the rocks, straight (or maybe Guiness draft).

horrible ... the Irish bartender cringed.

Frosty said...

Mrs B SU heck of a buy...LOW I don't know, think you may have been influenced my mr multitounge...I understand, keep the peace, your still the best.

Bunkerman said...

re LOW ... a couple years ago her broker got her to buy HD - she hated it from the beginning, but ...

Finally switching hitters.

Bunkerman said...

besides we got a good new washing machine there (Fisher-Paykel ? from NZ).

good service, good models.

HD - paint peeling off the store, crap everywhere.

Both stores within 1/2 mile of each other.

mfl59 said...

spin/mantis both hate LOW...they are more HD help necessary...

Spin-em said...

looooooool good index shop HD... 3 tool selection to 1...the ladies prefer LOW...not that theres anything wrong with

Frosty said...

"I'm mr bigtool, luv twisting tank nuts, polishing the big gun"...cut to...aazzhead drooling like krypto wearing a porkchop dog collar.

Bunkerman said...

haha, yes one needs big tools to work on the half-track: 2" wrenches, 1 inch socket drives, etc.

Actually I buy/bought almost all of my tools at Sears - Craftsman - American made.

I did get some of those huge wrenches from China/India though the catalogs a few years ago.

Spin-em said...

Bud be a dear and thank "Steve' for me would ya....

Frosty said...

retracking an M551 with your dirver druring a driving snow storm and realizing you are beyond the 49th parallel...while having your loader switch between HE and shillelagh when you become more concernd with the armor 3 klics behind the advancing troops...tank wreching at it's best indeed.

Bunkerman said...

I saw a WW II tape showing a half-track crew re-track a thrown track in 9 minutes ... in the field. Training pays off.

Of course it takes me two hours in my barn, but that's with just one guy helping.

Under possible fire in snow ... ughhh..

Bud said...

what are we buying stox based on a washing machine purchase ?? huh ??

what a bunch of thumping tosh

Bunkerman said...

well, that older crappy washing machine of GE kept her out of that dog for a couple years as it went down.

And good sandwiches got her into MCD.

mern said...

just returned from another deli. im very familiar with this building becuase i used to work across the street from it.

5 yrs ago this building was popping!

i was there from 10:45 until 11:30. and i went in acting like just a customer. i put a soda and watched one person come in and get coffee.

i started to chat with the owner. asked how business was. "TERRIBLE! ive owned this 15 yrs and never seen it like this, ever. even the catering and the vending machines r finished. everyday a another business moves out, and everyday more people bring their lunches in with a brown bag"

the broker was saying i cud swoop in a get this for nothing and when the building fills back up ill make a killing.

i just suggested those jobs r haved to india and china and will never come back, what then?

long pause....... well i wud say the economy cant get worse but ive been saying that for almost a yr and know im a car salesman. plus u r the only person looking to buy a business in all of tampa.......

gas up another 8 cents overnight.

gonna be funny when depressflation is a buzz word on babblevision.

maybe i didnt invent the word but i was close

Frosty said...

four lil words that just might change you life...mernduce bigalow tampa gigolo.

Bunkerman said...

usually situations like that clear by the building being foreclosed & sold for a song, then new buyers offers dirt cheap reats to fill it.

Saw that happen all over US and here in 1990-1993 period.

Frosty said...

"I've been keeping a very balanced approach to the market and don't have any strong bias." thx jim... busy punching month end visa skim tickets.

I think so

Spin-em said...


Ohhhh maaaan..good times...good times

Bunkerman said...

hmmm reminds me of an old saying ... "anyone sitting in the middle of the road should be hit by a passing truck".

origionally politics ... now ...

Frosty said...

LOL Bunky...would hate to see that truck after a head on with jabba the hutshark.

Bunkerman said...

lolol, yes, that would be as bad as hitting a hog.

Bunkerman said...

BBQ weekend: real European style baurenwurst, steak tips marinated in bourbon, corn on the cob [thank you, FL], fine salad, beer.

bunktinis tonight at the "party".

enjoy the weekend.

"The End is Near" i., e., of the recession.

Get the solid gold mitre for le nouveau dieu - Obama.

Bunkerman said...

hmmm I wonder what religions have ceremonies for making a god ?

I suppose Rome had one.

Perhaps some African ones ?


Bunkerman said...

early shorts got a Cooney again.

must hurt.


Frosty said...

enjoy the bbq bunky, sounds like a plan, enjoy...bunkerboyz, pleasure indeed...good weekend all.