Yesterday the S&P 500 cracked through the upper resistance levels to move to intermediate term open water.
Why?
WSJ: "Driving stocks and commodities was news from across the globe that orders for manufactured goods were finally beginning to recover. A survey in the U.S. showed manufacturing orders picked up for the first time in 18 months. Manufacturing surveys in China, India and Europe also showed signs either of slowing declines or actual growth."
Maybe. A few weeks ago another big more up happened on a Monday, but then the market consolidated for awhile. This move broke out of the consolidation range. I'd guess a huge number of beefer hedge funds are underperforming massively and are in panic mode.
Usually they pile into momentum winners and after a few weeks all bail out at once in a correction. So what to do?
I plan to flip some winners and recent adds into future strength to cut back over time to 100% long. I like to be longer on dips, but on breakouts I like to cut back. This way the brutal corrections are not so painful, and I have money to make adds on dips.
Obama Fund is performing marvellously, as is Fido Fund. I will stick to the strategy: this is month 5 out of the envisioned 18 month rebound.
Target: S&P 1200+ by mid 2010.
Word of the Day
"Debouchement" - noun from the intransitive verb, "Debouch" [$10];
"Debouch" this is pronounced di bowch with the stress on the last syllable.
Debouch means 1. (of troops or a stream) issue from a ravine, wood, etc. into open ground; 2. (often followed by 'into'; of a river, road, etc.) merge into a larger body or area.
Sentence: Yesterday's debouchement of stock prices into intermediate term "blue sky" country must be making bearish beefers sweat.
Le Mot Du Jour
"Déboucher" - verb, regular -er conjugation
Déboucher means (transitive) to unblock, to uncork, to open; (intransitive) to emerge, to come out (+ sur ou dans).
La Phrase: Hier cours du marché des actions ont débouché en haut sur les espaces ouverts.
Sentence: Yesterday stock market prices emerged upwards onto open spaces.
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49 comments:
Bman does the TLT death spiral bother you ?? rising rates would be devastating for any recovery
delicous latte this morning from caribou
long CBOU
Bman don't you find it amusing that the gooks in beijing are lecturing us how to run our economy ??
a few months ago we all agreed that US Tresuries were ridiculously overvalued. So the drop in TLT was and is no surprise.
10 year needs to go to 4%. Why anyone would buy it under 4% is beyond me.
Yes, it's laughable that anyone listens to the Reds in China talk about the economy.
I guess some in DC want to be polite. All should just ignore them.
interesting post Bman........apparently you're a trader ( beefer-style ) when the market is in your favor
but when it was tanking last year........." i'm semi-retired........i don't watch the day-to-day noise......i'm a real buyer "
long term long only investing indeed
pfffffffffffffffffffffft
PS......welcome back 'krypto'
as Treasuries have risen, corporate spreads have gone down a lot more, lowering private sector interest costs.
lol
Yeah, I admit I'm trading more than I want to.
I wrote about my Obama Fund strategy a while ago and said I'd trade it to increase the potential profits.
And last year I wanted to just sit, but the panic and bank stock debacle and volatility forced to to trade more that I wanted.
But my "trading" is over weeks or months, not days.
Most of my money is in Krypto Fund and just sits until the asset allocation model tell me to do something.
I don't think I ever said buy & hold & don't pay attention a bit.
a guy breaks 90 and all of the sudden he feels he can mouth off to the world...
"thanks mr. PGA professional"
btw, Krypto Fun is up 7.5% year to date. Not bad for about 50% in stocks.
The US Savings Rate was nearly negative a year ago. It was about 4.5% a few months ago and it's now above 5.5%...far more important to ending the recession than a normalization of long end rates aazzhead...bunky while good for the personal balance sheet, not what we need to keep this move going...spend spend spend
well, spending at Wal-Mart to ship the money to China is no good either.
nor is buying a Fisher & Paykel "ecosmart" toploader made in New Zealand...or a german car...or a vacation in england...common man helping his country indeed...pppfffttt.
hey, that Mercedes SUV was made in Alabama !
otherwise, I admit buying foreign wine, imported beer, French cheese, etc.
But US tools !
I always thought higher savings rates during a recssion is bearish...while higher savings rates during booms is bullish....
Go ahead Bunky....put your bullish spin on...."savings rates are irrelevant"
housing is roaring again. i agree. ive shown my house 4 times in the last month, which is the most so far.
still no bids, not even an insult bid.
still no interviews.
every business i look at is on life support.
except a couple of sports bars, but probably not a gud idea for me to try and become a modern day sam malone.
tampa is a huge service based economy, and it hasnt stabalized. its just getting worse.
i did buy 4 ears of corn for a buck at walmart, but then lost the savings when i filled up......
CBOU
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
' knows zilch about stocks LT '
jobbernowl indeed
I've never understood what those "savings rate" numbers mean.
Investment is good, but savings is bad. Very wierd.
I just ignore them.
"Investment is good, but savings is bad. Very wierd."...money at work vs money at rest...nice pitch in the dirt bunky...ball one.
well, an economics theorem says investment = savings.
And savings gets invested via financial intermediaries and that's then good.
theh bad transformed into the good.
Wierd. QED.
I think that's three strikes. Sit down, iceman.
Chinese students laughing at the US Treasury Secretary....
Cooper calls them "well educated".... oh man
I will forward your note to the bank of japan bunky...now I know how Sadaharu Oh feels...get the rye and mustard gramma.
lolol I guess those Chinese students read this blog !;)
Costa Rica-USA tomorrow night World Cup Qualifying....who ya got mern?
U.S. defender Oguchi Onyewu is suing an Anderlecht player over an alleged racial insult, hoping the case will help eradicate on-field racist abuse in European soccer.
Onyewu, who plays for Standard Liege, says Anderlecht's Jelle Van Damme called him a "dirty monkey" during the Belgian league playoffs. Van Damme has denied the allegations and said he is not a racist.
holy smokes
l'aquarium de requeins est en fue !!!!!
guys comin off the bench and producing
surgery.......pfffffffffffffffft
Bman what are your inflation projections ?? at what point do you get nervous
I begin to worry if core gets over 2.5%
Bman what is your crude projection ? any cause for concern
3dollar gas could smack this weak economy hard
is oil goin up based on fundamentals..........or is this beefer manipulation again
some of this is beefer money, but a lot is user hedging.
I stick wtih $100 by the end of 2010 when world economy is roaring again.
"I stick wtih $100 by the end of 2010 when world economy is roaring again."
roaring????
lmaoooooooooooo
come on mern....
aazzhead many questions for a ping pong player...obviously no need for intelligent date night conversation...no one to chat with when washing the prowler...whites ingnore on the links (run biff, here comes "that guy")...clogtheblog...I think so.
http://www.authentichistory.com/1930s/music/1929-Happy_Days_Are_Here_Again.html
I like to trade with this in the background....thats the Casa Loma Orchesta ...theyre the caaaaaats pajamas....meooooooooowwwwwww
'that guy'
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
excellent, spin. Of course I have this on my iPhone, CD, tapes, LP. Not on '78 ;)
Needs the vocals - the words mean a lot.
hard to short that with that in background....
listen you f'ng douchebag
i don't claim to be a know-it-all like you and your 2 fag-boys
i like to pick the brains of guys smarter than me.............Bman doesn't have a problem with me asking him for help
'knows zilch about stocks LT'
does your "PGA Professional" fit into that category?
slap on the tap shoes..new dark HD cherry wood floors...no scuffs.....dont stop me now fellas..........
why do you talk about him behind his back in the tank then....
shuboop shu bop shubop....
BIG FINISH!!!!
"oh Chief, you are so funny...oh Chief, I love your timing guy....youre so smart"
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fu Chief
for shorting music, try, "Buddy Can You Spare a Dime?"
;)
LMAOOOOOOOOOO Bunk....geez I couldnt do that
behind his back ??? huh ???
seems to me like i've crushed the Bman here alot..........perhaps i wasn't clear......ok......no problem...........i'll be harsher
you guys are sensitive.......no surprise...........most fags are
well played Bud....mock people from the safety of the tank...
"dos afrontó al bastardo amarillo"
I just got an excelletn Polish-English unabridged dictionary.
a**-kisser = lizus, or much more vulgarly, wazeliniarz.
interesting the second word is a bit of a tranliteration of "vaseline"...
I wonder why ?
lolololol
btw, the translation of 'lizus' is more like "bootlicker"
my, my ... aren't unabridged dictionaries wonderful.
Idż do diabła, Jim!
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