By "it", I refer to the rise in the yield on ten year US Treasury notes to nearly 4%. This is so easy, yet oddly, the doomsayers and pundits on Toshvision and Blabberg seem not to grasp it.
It's a harbinger of a return to normalcy. It means the "panic premium" on US Treasury debt is going away - gone. Buyers want a rational, real return, not just "safety" at any price. If a buyer doesn't get the expected core inflation rate [i. e. 2%] plus a real return of 2% on those notes, then he's either stupid or panicked. For the US 30-year bond, he should get about 3% "real" in my opinion.
The marginal buyer of 10 to 30 year US Treasury debt is now a "real" buyer, not a speculator or a panicked investor or even a Central Bank needing dollar investments. Real buyers mean normalcy in debt markets. This is good.
FT says stock funds got positive cash flows again last week for the twelfth straight week. The accompanying chart was interesting. During the three week Obama panic, cash flows were hugely negative. Otherwise, the flows are positive for many weeks.
Obama Fund is performing well. Yesterday I flipped bits of AKS, SPAR and SSCCQ. Their position sizes had gotten too large. This is just portfolio management. I still like all three stocks. [Beware: SSCCQ is ultra-risky as a stock.]
Word of the Day
"Descry" - verb, transitive [$10] literary
Descry means to catch sight of, discern.
Sentence: Bunkerman descries the return to normalcy.
Le Mot du Jour
"En" - this is a ubiquitous word in French with many uses as a preposition, an indefinite pronoun and in expressions. For today's Le Mot du Jour, I've picked one usage which was the subject of a French workbook lesson last evening. Which I did imbibing a glass on fine French wine - an excellent 2005 Pomerol.
En means (indefinite quantity) 'of it', 'of them'.
La Phrase: Les Fonds d'Obama ont cinqante actions, mais les Fonds d'Fido en ont juste neuf.
Sentence: Obama Fund has 50 stocks, but Fido Fund has just nine of them. [NB: The 'of them' is often not translated or expressed in English, but the 'en' is mandatory in French.]
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52 comments:
again with the real buyer stuff?? i thought there were only 3 real buyers left
what a bunch of thumping tosh
SSCCQ.........atta boy Bman
'stocks like NVAX disgust me'
you confuse me Bman............3% is normal return for the 30year ? so the yield on the 30year can go to 5 and it's ok with you
am i understanding that right
ops expo next week.....frosty can u private email me the spreadsheet from your blackberrycurve8900 before you go on your trip to sturgeon ??
yeah......like i give a F.......i wipe my ass with it
Idż do diabła bob !!!!!!!
foreclosures over 300k for the 3rd straight month
ugliness in housing continues
Bud, I was talking about bonds - sheesh.
There are lots of real buyers in bonds - institutions, etc.
The 3% is the REAL return. 3% real + 2% inflation = 5%.
I guess being a bear sell sbooks and speechs nowadays. It's odd they can't think aoubt what the landscape will look like when the pain ends ... which it will soon.
SSCCQ is very sensitive to the economy and the ability to refinance high yield debt.
NVAX is a trader stock and a bio-news stock - no economic connection. Quite inappropriate for Les Fonds d'Obama.
Chien Ming Wang pitched another nice game last night, eh Bud...
sorry spin....lololol
sheesh, I need to type slower.
Sells books
about
speeches
LOL
Bunkerman are you a disciple of Mario Gabelli?
2 days in a row mfl baits Bud to do the dirty work.....Coach Gable would never take those easy or low roads.....
PS... thought the Arod "you took steroids" chant was louder and funnier than Giambi's "Baaaaalco"
LMAOOOOOOOO
Darn it, I'm always making stpid grammar mistakes in French. Just fixed one.
I am a disciple of no man.
I am a free man [from the Prisoner]
I follow my own thinking.
Many famous and influential people seem to read this blog and imitate me. That's fine.
;)
yes red sox fans slightly redeemed themselves..........the 9th inning chant was funny
but still.......very very dissapointing performance by the nation.......where is the anger ?? where is the outrage ??? these new red sox fans who came after the 2004 worldseries just don't have the hatred for the yankees i do
what do i want ?? i want drunk irish guys running onto the field throwing needles and dollar bills at A-fraud.........cops chasing them.......pinches and kicks and batons......i wanna see blood......i wanna see dozens of arrests
this scumbag douchebag A-fraud needs to be exposed for what he is.......i lying cheating wife-beating cocksucker
jerry manuel needs to go........he's anice guy............but come on
finally someone on espn bashed A-fraud............rick sutcliffe.......saying he looks at his home run total differently now......thank you rick
and that ass-kisser peter gammons ?? " A-fraud's return made pitching to the yankees a nitemare for opposing pitchers "
lêche-cul indeed
Bunky...nono paint up my unemployment helmet just yet...barry is gonna creat 600k new jobs by next tuesday and Bud is gonna grow a pair..oh man.
was watching a bit of the Yankee game with my dad last night....a die hard fan for his enitre life....after the second inning he blurts out....
"ARod really is a jerk-off"
lmaoooooooooooooooooo
PS sorry for the vulgarity Mrs. B
np ... that low level vulgarity is fine.
UTA a monster..............what a tete de noed frosty is
carnoustie here i come !!!
" go to the range bro........i got the greens fees "
"You have to pay up if you want in"...thx jim...I'll pass that on to the bunkerman, as he has it all wrong.
Carnoustie lmaoooooooooo
over/under 130 if the wind kicks up
loooooooooooooooool 130
and if it nice and sunny............over/under 125
I have friend who is Scottish....
"Mate if you are going to play golf in Scotland, you have to play Carnoustie..."
"St. Andrews is an easy track mate...Carnoustie will test ya"
that 6 iron will be handy on the greens
Bunkerman thoughts on the following statement from Minyanville:
"If unemployment were calculated the way it was calculated in 1990 the rate today would be 20.5%"
Bud dont forget to tell your mentor that today is Option Misdirection Thursday.....also tell him mab says hello...
"If unemployment were calculated the way it was calculated in 1990 the rate today would be 20.5%"
I suppose they have some facts to back up such a claim ?
Unemployment rate is a survey to ask people if they are looking for work? What's so complicated about that?
In other words, it's horsebleep.
People have been trying top redefine that number for 45 years since the 1974 recession when George Meany wanted to do it.
trying to redefine.
They bitch about part-time work, about wives not working, about kids not working, on and on.
Tell me the unemployment rate among married men ?
it's 6.8% .... not good, but not horrible (unless one of them)
For married women it's 5.7%
That is a true measure of pain.
going to MG range this PM ... a little M1917A1 action ... testing the equipment.
good answers Bman.....with some passion and anger........and also good idea to go the range
seems like you have some steam to let off
M1917A1 ??
what's that.......a machine gun ?
'stocks like NVAX disgust me'
I don't have the facts behind the statement Bunk...but I figured in the least I could get you to swing at that pitch...
Enjoy the range sir...
Bunky, lunch at MCD today perhaps?..."fine food"
'6 ft 195 lbs'
pfffffffffffffffffffffffft
keep eatin macdonalds frosty.......you fat f'k
PS......still wanna be friends ??
uh that would be, Mr. 6'2" 195 to you...and yes my hair is very bobby redford like...you ever disrespect my fine mane again I will drive down to the ghetto in my F-350 and "knock your teeth out"
MLF59"s fine showing have me reaching outside the dish for pitches....MVP slipping away.
I think so
be careful Bob....men who drive Jettas are known to be able to mix it up...
blackberrycurve 8900 is here.........looks sweet....but can i afford it ?? 162bux with shipping
oh.......i think so
danke vielmals jim !!!!
PS.......it's a passat !! you loud obnoxious jersey f'k
81% of all black belts drive Passats....
"one time in jr high......"...ah forget it...hoist the damn trophy already Mike.
you guys see this course on the golf channel.........bulle rock in maryland.....they playin lpga championship there
i'm gonna play ther in july......green fees....150bux.......but can i afford it ??
oh....i think so
merci jim !!!!!!!!!!!!!
PS.....ROYL....the tank nailed it !!!
retroactive indeed
bulle rock....over/under 97...please putt everything out
why you livin in the ghetto when it sounds like your best times are had with your family in Maryland?...life's too short azzhead....when you gunna get it?
that was for free sir...best advice you'll ever get......
Spin...."Kenny Banya" lives in Florida....as such thats where the mentee should live
Bud I'm calling off the dogs son....
"lets be friends"
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