California moves toward default.
Europe is down early.
Riots in Xingiang province in China.
Short interest rising.
An intermediate term H&S is forming on the S&P 500.
I worry that big money beefers who bought the lows are about to exit, and that others are going to push the bear side again. With limited positive cash flows, there really isn't much support if this consolidation range is broken to the downside.
And I worry about that fellow riding in my chariot [figuratively] who was whispering to me when Obama Fund was up 65% year to date, saying "you are not a god".
I also have many distractions. Perhaps these are affecting my will to be steadfast. Or not.
Nothing is certain until done, but I might cut back Obama Fund's long position today.
PS: As posted in the comments early, I did sell out Obama Fund to cash, locking in a 31% year to date gain. The way I read the chart, a red close breaks the H&S neckline down (it tilts a bit). With futures so weak early, it seems clear little or no new cash came into stocks in the start of the quarter. I also sold GE in Fido Fund. That stocks seems dead for a while until the financial regulation clears up the status of GE Capital.
On a decent pulback, I'd re-load unless the news gets worse.
Word of the Day
"Sang-froid" - noun
Sang-froid means composure, imperturbability.
Sentence: Trying to maintain snag-froid in the face of numerous distractions and demands can be quite difficult.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
46 comments:
Congress is so corrupt. After squandering half the prior stimulus bill, some now call for another, before the money of the first is even 10% spent.
China did it right. Sigh ...
I took Obama FUnd to all cash. Sold GE in Fido Fund.
I'm not really very bearish, but with my distractiosn and the worries, I don't want to risk any more of my profits this year.
These little stocks move very fast.
If the H&S neckline is broken, the S&P could fall to 820-830 are.
Wow Bunkerman that hard to believe....will you reload in full if the market falls to your previously mentioned levels?
locked in YTD gain of 31%.
That pullback cost me 1/2 my profits.
Yes, I'd reload unless things change.
I suppose real buyers will show up now. :(
my distractions proably contributed a lot to my desire to cut back. It's hard to differentiate them from the otehr worries.
15dlowest close 8d highest close
DIA 82 99(fail) 85.25
Q's 35.00 36.45
SPY 89.28(close counts failed now) 92.70
Q's,SPY worth a shot long if it close above 15dc Q's(35) SPY (89.28)
another president that trusts a Russian???
околпачивайте меня раз, стыд на вас, околпачивайте меня дважды, стыд на мне.
funny, spin, I could figure that out
Bunky...lockem in, atta boy nonono reason to give back some well earned gains...hedging strategy in play here as I try to get long term some of those spring buys...ready to reload lower indeed.
cornhole mail today....think about it.
well, the way I read it, if S&P closes red, that breaks the neckline of the H&S.
this Explorer 8 on Vista sucks.
Very annoying.
I worry about patterns when everyone and their paki pal sees them forming a couple weeks in advance...very textbook look indeed...easy and clean ppfffttt...first mouse may be going on a diet.
Bman...any income ideas for us...where are you putting cash these days?...a serious question
the al franken top...income ideas, adopt a bunch of kids then place them in CC camps in make work projects to gain skills...start paying off union bosses now so you can place them once trained and let the skim roll.
Bud off to the child molesters rally in LA???
Derek Jeter..#1 in votes.....ohh my..."sorry" Bud
THE CHOKE IS ON!!!!....way to go bob..... M's took care of those Beantown homos..
Manny and Papi sttinin a tree
with HGH...that makes 3.
first comes luv
then comes marriage,
then Bud throws em under
Metro Carriage.......
had the broom out with seven outs to go on sunday, ppfftt...should have known better...even the shark stock of the week works once every couple months.
Municipal bonds of good credits [no CA, FL, NV, AZ] that are over 5% look good to me, if one can get non-call 5 years on a 20 year term or 10 years on a 30 year term; or with enough discount to protect against loss on a call, still are great buys.
I diversify hugely on those by borrower and location.; A rated or better only.
I avoid hurricane target zones for projects, etc.; and anything that seems to have a wart in my opinion.
'beantown homos'
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
PS......'mission accomplished'
wait a second.................sox have the best record in the al
and you 2 douchebags are talkin smack ???
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooo
thats what we do.........
ur boy Michael Kay on ch 631.....get ready for the fireworks .....
"you 2 douchebags"...easy Hass, this isn't upper east jr high...Spinny already sent your pal packing to costa rica and Bunky to the return line at druckers general store...ya might want to take a deep breath.
Bud I stumbled upon your boys on tv the other day...check out the show NYC Preps....lots of hard guys indeed....
mfl pops new flat screen undefeated....(need a lil Jersey cuzins Baggo luck today.....
looooooooool bob
spin definitley got 2 scalps.......no one gets mine though
philly fbi ?? bring him on...........i piss on his face
'lots of hard guys'
ace are you a closet yankee fan ?? cuz you sure sound like a fag
come on Bud...gotta do a bit better than that...
what ?? you didn't like that ace ?? i thought it was pretty good.......aight..........early in the week...........just warmin up
regardless i am noticing some softness towards the yankees by you............you don't have to root for them just cuz pops does..........yankees are scum
no biggie........i hate them...........and i'll keep the yankee rants going wether i am alone or not
lmaoooooo.....good eye indeed...
my old man is breaking me down...ever since he got the new tv they cant lose....I'll be back though....just punch drunk at the moment...
looooooooool HURRY POP...BY HIM A YANKEE HAT!!!
mets decimated with imjuries.............happens.......can't do nuthin about it
when the yankees have even 1 injury..........they trade their whole farm system for some washed up veteran e.g. bobby abreu
There are also probably some good taxable income buys in the commercial mortgage security area. I've heard of some. Need a good broker or friend to help select.
Need to buy at $100K a pop, though.
And stick with the super-senior classes. No single property loans unless you know the building.
Check the diversification in the pool, too. And worrisome big loans.
Bman why do you have to make phony excuses to sell ?? why don't you just say you were wrong ............and the recession is far from over............in fact it may be gettin worse...........so you are locking in big gains...........and will keep an eye open for getting back in...........period
'distractions'...........pfffffffffffffft
well.............467k jobs lost in june...........i guess you can call that a 'distraction'
oh, Bud ... I just post the truth - my actual thinking.
No $6k per subscriber skim to protect.
For the past couple years, following the crowd re short interest has in fact worked - to my memory. Why is that ? Easy, beefers can amke Ms. Market dance to any tune they wish.
And lots of "obvious" patterns and trend line busts have worked, too.
Why ? Same reason.
I could make you look like a total fool re mocking my "distractions" but will not.
the jobs losses # was in line with the trend to zero losses in a few months. Everyone seems to want this fixed overnight.
Fitch Downgrades State of California GOs to 'BBB'; Maintains Rating Watch Negative
who would want to cheer for a team.team that has injuries...and just rolls over on its back and gives up?......no...adapt and improvise Gunny Highway style
Mr Met..."Hello Mr Madoff..do you have any CA munies????"
checkerboy..lmaooooooo
hope everythings OK Bunk....hang in there pal
Moody's Places Brazil's Ratings On Review For Possible Upgrade (51.20 -0.90)
CA down, Brazil up.
The world turned upside down.
oh ok Bman
that had the potential to turn into a mern-spin type situation.............but.......i'm a 'gentleman'
"I could make you look like a total fool"....you can do that by going to the range a couple of times and a match play round with aazzhead...as long as you count his strokes.
All the best Bunkerman...the stock market isnt going anywhere (except down perhaps)....take care of your business sir...
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