Not much news today.
Sellers came out at S&P 1000 as predicted in this blog. But it doesn't take a genius to figure that out. I suppose the market will base or grind up. I'd guess a huge number of beefers and individual investors are on the sidelines and now, hearing about the S&P being up about 10%, will get some courage. Or is that greed ? Maybe greed will start to gain some area from fear in the emotional phase space.
FYI, "phase space" is a two dimensional space of position and velocity - really six dimensional if one uses the true three dimensional position and velocity vectors to create it. Well, classical physics had a number of interesting theorems about phase space and it was a good concept for understanding the dynamics of objects. So I'm using that concept to think about investors' emotional state - a sort of phase space made from fear and greed. Lots of these analogies from physics help me think about markets. The mathematics describing them is actually the same as the math underlying much modern finance so the analogies can be quite valid.
REITs showed strength, perhaps as some investors who actually think about the future and not just trading patterns also foresee relief in the commercial real estate financing markets. That sector can really explode up if or when the economy gets back to normal. I mean the "old", real normal, not this new syndrome of "perma-bear-itis" called "the new normal".
I've got a good bit of those in Krypto Fund, so will wait until the Fed's TALF for CMBS really happens.
Word of the Day
"Semiotics" - noun [$10]; "Semiotic" - adjective [$10]
Semiotics means (noun) 1. the study of signs and symbols in various fields, especially language; 2. Med. symptomatology.
Semiotic (adjective) means pertaining to semiotics.
Sentence: Technical analysis uses semiotic study of patterns from stock charts - viz., the high-low-close price plus volume chart - for its foundation. The classic book, "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards and Magee is that field's original scripture. Modern computers use the same data to create many more signs and symbols.
Das Wort der Woche
"Denken" - verb, regular
Denken means to think.
Der Satz: Ich denke, deshalb ich bin.
Sentence: I think, therefore I am.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
43 comments:
beefers on the sidelines ??? huh ???
beefers are having a monster year......why do you think the market is going up ? they have been buying.......why do you think the market got crushed last year ?? cuz they were selling
listen Bman...........if beefers do well....market goes up..........if they do poorly.......market goes down.......plain and simple......ummmmm
'as predicted in this blog'
Reits can't explode without the consumer...........and..........in the 'new normal'........consumers are saving.........not spending.......and only those that have jobs
it's different this time
get your facts straight son....beefers are not having a monster year as a whole....many have been underinvested or have been fighting the move higher...check the stats...
or did that tall guy tell you this?
DDRX
danke vielmals indeed
I wonder what % of beefers are beating Krypto Fund ?
REITs depend on business conditions - only quite indirectly on the consumer.
Plus they are depressed due to refinancing difficulties.
From a simple distribution of investmetn performance, unless 50% beat Krypto Fund, they are worthless on average.
Krypto Fund is up about 10% YTD even with its large fixed income & TIP investments.
I don't doubt - and have said many, many times - that short term, beefers can nmake Ms. Market dance to any tune they wish.
Short term.
July Chicago PMI 43.4 vs 43.0 consensus, prior 39.9
over 50 will signal expansion in manufacturing ... coming soon.
Bunky your heros did a very poor job making up the GDP today...we need to feel better and need a big splash of positve GDP on every newspaper in the country...guess we settle for now with improved health care at a reduced cost...good times.
PMI sweet...now that's how ya make up a number...good times indeed.
Bunkerman what industries in the USA are growing? besides porn, reality tv, and gastric bypass surgeries...
AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, health care (due to more old people), among others.
my, my, mfl, aren't you a bit Americo-centric ?
Is not 50% of S%P revenues from overseas?
gun & ammo sales are booming, too
;)
I am not a xenophobe ($10) sir...
fair point by you...
you sure you arent looking for a double dip, once all this one=time stimulus wares off?
well, IF Obama re-appoints Ben, THEN I'll be "hoping" for the beefers to hit the sell button all at the same time.
The "stimuls" is more like a long massage, not like a _____.
Takes a couple years to run off mostly, & even then a long tail exists (which will be canceled by Obama's tax hikes).
GENZ
nailed it !! high five !!
a buck plus in a minute
danke vielmals jim !!!!!!
40points my ass
Bman should the Fed raise rates at the next meeting ?? you know.........since the recession is over
dollar is tanking....inflation next ??
no re Fed raising rates.
Ben should wait until unemployment falls to 7%, then just bump them up a bit to about 2% overnight.
hmm who was panning my GLD Krypto buy early this week ?
Sheesh, "six in the dirt"
should have known your heros were only putting on a strong dollar show while the red devils were in town to be stroked...happy finish indeed...mr president, think you have some mayo on your chin, let me get you a tissue....teabag party of 150 indeed.
Bman..........are hedge funds an assett class ???
'six in the dirt'
i have no idea what that means
Bman must be havin more wet dreams
UBS and MS are not allowing clients to trade ultra and inverse leveraged etf's..........what a joke
is the goal not to allow clients to hedge ?? apparently so
no, any fool "should" know hedge funds are NOT an asset class, they are just a way to manage investments in whatever they specailize in.
good for MS & UBS - those don't "hedge" anything, except a day trade.
Bud you remind me of a young Ron Insana....
Jon Secada my ass....
seems to me any broker having clients in those more than one day is deserving a good lawsuit.
hmmm with the steroid relevations, should there be an asterisk next to the Red Sox World Series win ?
And maybe quite a few others, too.
Since Arod never hits in the Series, one can't say teh Ynks ever won with his help.
ditto brokers putting clients in the commodity ETFs except gold & silver ones that actually own the metal.
Bman have you opined on these computers that trade that have been in the news recently ?? did i miss it
i am in favor of them.......... i am hugely in favor of any and all entering the stock market..........i want to lessen ( not increase ) restrictions/rules/regulations for participation in the markets
remember i am just a ping pong player..........let's play !!!
"rather boring action overall"...thx jim...guess ya missed that move in the dollar...so many visa skim tickets to punch so lil time...ppffttt.
I think all trading by computers should be prohibited.
The markets are for people, not machines.
a human being should hit every trade button.
"a buck plus in a minute"... panties dripping wet...shamwow now available at KSS.
if computerized order flow was prohibited, the orders & order flow of the common man would be more valuable to the Street.
why do we have to make it easier for the common man?.....the common man already has a job.......you think the common man is sitting in front of his screens ???
the common man participates in the market thru pension funds mutual funds etc....
the hedge funds computers are working for the common man.........he has hired them to secure his retirement
Jesse Beery just called...please return the blinders to the barn...grab a broom, those road apples aren't gonna sprout legs and move themselves.
"the hedge funds computers are working for the common man.........he has hired them to secure his retirement"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
the rich & powerful hire hedge funds.
They and the Street use computerized trading to extract more vig from the common man buying buying a stock or mutual fund.
"I'm feeling quite bored today." thx jim...visa skim ticket punching not as much work as it once was indeed.
ace reminds me of a guy that was yappin off to me recently
last i heard about him he was just released from the hospital..........but he still eatin his lunch out of a straw
lmaoooooooooooooooo
way to go Turtle!
have a good weekend bunky
time for a Bunktini
enjoy the weekend.
Krypto, here's you monthly fee .. good job !
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