Tuesday, July 7, 2009

The New Normal

That's the 2009 version of "it's different this time". Of course, it's not and normal is the same old normal. People are the same. The "new normal" is the same old normal with lots of excesses tossed onto the dustbins of history.

I thought I'd toss out a few ideas I've mentioned here over the past few years for the "new normal".

People will prepare and cook more of their own food. Food is practically free if one buys simple ingredients and prepares the meal at home, saving the leftovers to spread the labor over a second meal.

McMansions in exurbia will have little demand. Why own such a big home that requires "help" to maintain and forces a lengthy commute.

Central city and small town living will be the trend. Suburbs will be stagnant.

Shopping centers must be re-invented to offer something that is not available online. Services are one possibility. The Apple stores with their service centers make a lot of sense.

Microsoft will stay in its lengthy decline. Vista stinks, Vista Explorer 8 is both nosey and crummy.

Overpaying will be seen as the killer of companies and investments.

The home will be seen as a place to live, not as an investment or as a piggy-bank.

This is a hope: Companies will start to cut or cap the pay of the top executive suite.

Another hope: Education in real learning and real skills will get a re-birth, and less novel and entertaining subjects.

Today's silly infatuation: green jobs.

World economic growth will be led by the emerging markets and eastern Europe, with the US, western Europe and Japan providing the same old 2-3% growth. Soon this will be recognized and the stock market will return quickly to the long plateau on the 100 year wall chart, viz. around 1200 in the S&P.

The structure of the world was set in the early 1920s in both economic and social contexts. All we see now are incremental changes and technologies. That great song by Julie Andrews, "Thoroughly Modern Millie" makes the point.

I'm open to other ideas & will post any "good" ones.

Markets

Obama Fund is now all cash. I locked in a 31% year-to-date gain. Those stocks in Obama Fund are really good ones for "trading" a return to the plateau as they make huge percentage moves. In hindsight, I should have traded them a bit more on an individual basis.

Once my distractions end, I'll look for re-entries on a stock-by-stock basis.

I also sold GE in Fido Fund. That stock looks like still water until financial regulation clarifies the status of GE Capital.

Word of the Day

"Conceit" - noun [$10 - meaning #2]
Conceit means 1. personal vanity, pride; 2. (literary) a. a far-fetched comparision, especially as a stylistic affectation; a convoluted or unlikely metaphor; b. a fanciful notion.
Sentence: The great overused conceit of modern environmental leftism is the conceit "green" for their hair-brained schemes. Brown would fit better, to match the color of the manure they favor instead of efficient, white nitrogen fertilizer. Most "green" ideas belong in the outhouse.

Słowo Tygodnia

"Gówno" - noun, neuter
Gówno means s*** (vulgar, very informal) [pronounced 'guvno' with the 'u' as in 'put', not 'putt']
Zdanie: Energia zielona ? To jest gówno !
Sentence: Green energy ? That's s*** !

52 comments:

Spin-em said...

YANKEE NATION ADDS ANOTHER FAN!!!

"good for you mike"

Spin-em said...

another loss for the Gówno носки (shit sox)...musta been a late night at the Jason Bay gang Baggo party

Bunkerman said...

uh spin, Polish doesn't use the Cyrillac alphabet.

sock = skarpeta, feminine.

sox = skarpety

perhaps you mean, gòwno skarpety ?

[gòwno is also an adverb]

Bunkerman said...

WSJ reports a group of the biggest U.S. banks said they would stop accepting California's IOUs on Friday, adding pressure on the state to close its $26.3 billion annual budget gap.

Good, otherwise they are enablers of imbecility.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, back from Caddy dealer for Gold Mist service.

Sinking to oblivion ... gutting service.

"How to Drive away affluent customers in five easy lessons" must be their manual.

Frosty said...

Bunky sells the nigga fund...Mav is talking cornhole...Mfl59's cuz bags him for a half yard...Spin the old earwig and worst of all, Bud is attempting to be nice.

Has my world left orbit...I think so.

Spin-em said...

sorry bunk..thought it was russian..loool

Bunkerman said...

"The World Turned Upside Down"

Played by British band as they surrendered at Yorktown in 1781.

Bunkerman said...

but I still have the Fido Fund at 110% long.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, everyone's sending me this article on GS as the devil.

I guess they all missed my blog, but maybe the author did. I've been calling GS a pirahna for years.

I'd better read it.

Frosty said...

Bunky...you talking the conspiracy theory bubble builder piece in the rolling stone?

Bunkerman said...

yeah

Bunkerman said...

anyone have a link to the real artcle ?

I can only find excerpts or one too small to read.

Frosty said...

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-sachs-engineering-every-major.html

Bunkerman said...

I figured out how to read it full screen.

Interesting.

Much is true, but not all.

I guess the author read my rants on GS and did more research. ;)

He missed how they make most/all of their "trading profts" screwing their own clients.

Frosty said...

where is my BFF...did he spend yesterday picking up shark droppings and finds himself juggling more balls of shit than a four armed clown this morning?

Bunkerman said...

thanks.

Frosty said...

"I figured out how to read it full screen."

left click once on the tab "view full screen"....well played sir.

Bunkerman said...

hmmm Bman not looking like the first mouse on a diet now.

and that stale pattern looks a bit fresher, too.

Adapt, improvise.

Bunkerman said...

my comment was about the scribd posting another reader sent me.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/16996401/World-Bubbles-GoldmanSachs-Taibbi-Rolling-Stone

Spin-em said...

Adapt, improvise....lol Gunny

mfl59 said...

Gunny....

lmaooooooooooooo

Frosty said...

Bunky...I think you hurt Bud's feelings...you may want to apologize.

Spin-em said...

maybe hes afraid of Cuz Jack..he/Passat went underground osama handbook style
Do caves have internet???

Bunkerman said...

What did I do ?

Supply spin with ammo ?

Bunkerman said...

Maybe he minting money in the gówno akwarium ?

mfl59 said...

If that were the case Bunky I'm sure we'd be hearing about it...

"nailed it"

"danke vielmals jim"

"it works for me"

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Bud said...

hurt my feelings ??? huh ???


listen you f'ng prick ( and the rest of you douchebags ).............no one here can 'hurt' my anything........got that motherf'kers !!!!


i'm f'ng busy in the tank.......you know.........playin ping-pong.....makin money




VAR dark

CYOU dark




danke vielmals jim !!!!!!

Spin-em said...

Ponzi schemes out the ying yang

30% down..own your own Costa Rican hotel on the beach...Be your own boss!!..bring your team...group rates for partners..Easy $$....look in mirror and repeat after me.."Why not me....what am I waiting for???..The future is now!!"

Bud said...

PS......still wanna be friends ???

Bud said...

oh.............and btw..............i have read Bman's morning post.............as i do every morning before 7am


i just haven't had time to comment on it.............some real silly and stupid stuff in there today



oh wait...............did i just 'hurt' the Bman's feelongs ?????

Spin-em said...

Mission Accomplished "bob"

Bunkerman said...

silly & stupid stuff ?

pearls of wisdom

but some out there just can't tell the wheat from the chaff.

Bunkerman said...

I like that term, gówno akwarium.

very fitting. The English alliterates nicely.

:)

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman will you be less distracted after Michael Jackson is laid to rest?

Bunkerman said...

lolol, no, that's not it.

Spin-em said...

Spike ok?

Bud said...

Bman are you against the USO and UNG etf's ?? also the inverse and others...DXO DTO etc....

Bunkerman said...

yes, they are frauds on the investor.

Any derivative based or futures based ETF is a fraud.

Bunkerman said...

Spikie is fine, as bossy as ever.

Frosty said...

Bunky...you are confusing me today...open comments viz spiddy quick return to 1200...then in comments you spank your monkey for late recognition of a hs pattern about to crack us lower.

Bunkerman said...

frosty, it's a matter of how quick is quick.

I figure some pullback, then a ramp. maybe in the fall.

I'm trying to trade Obama more to make more moolah.

Fido Fund is stable, patient.

Frosty said...

"Fighting to Stay Awake"...thanks jim...were you awake long enough to process those visa skim tickets...I think so.

Bunkerman said...

a bit more ... I think the market needs some more good news to bring in enough real buyers to offset the trader bears.

That might take a couple months.

hence I wait on the sidelines. I'll jump back in quickly when/if it arrives or more clues do

Spin-em said...

loooooooooooooooool...oh maan.....

Spin-em said...

chuckling at "bob" btw

Spin-em said...

Bunky lookin for clues "Columbo style"

"excuse me..I hate to be a pain...Mrs Haversham but..when was the last time you saw the market close above the 8 day high?

Bunkerman said...

no idea, spin.

I don't follow that trader stuff anymore.

;)

mfl59 said...

Cut him some slack Bob...he's been working his parcel of raw land....takes a lot out of a man ya know...

Spin-em said...

loool bunk

Bud said...

holy smokes !!


what a day in the tank..........nailed it...........joe torre jr is f'ng on fire............sharkinvesting.com sizzling again



danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bunkerman said...

danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

vs.

"Fighting to Stay Awake"...thanks jim

wierd inconsistency.