Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Seeing A Change

A problem the anointed bear pundits have is seeing when to change and recognize that being right once - even in a huge move - does not make them gods. In the times of the Romans, when a successful military commander had huge power and was adulated by the public during his triumphal parade, tradition had a slave ride in his chariot to whisper in his ear, "you are not a god".

Somehow market pundits need this reminder. Maybe they need a parrot to sit on there shoulder to squawk, "you are not a god" as they go on to their next interview on Bubblevision, or their next speaking engagement for big money. Oh well, they've mostly succumbed to the same sales tactic, "tell' em what they want to hear, sell 'em what they want to buy" and so much of the investing public wants to hear a bearish story.

One simply reading today's newspapers online can find interesting stories of how the world is recovering with considerable strength. Note that I use the word, "world". Bear pundits are also notoriously US-centric. yesterday I posted a story about "world" commerce increasing at the highest pace in five years in July. Today, I find two stories with ground level facts supporting that my thesis of a coming "East and South Asian Co-Prosperity" sphere of self-reinforcing consumer demand leading to huge growth in that area ... and in the rest of the worlds via that growing consumer demand.

WSJ: "With the longtime engine of global growth, the American consumer, pummeled by recession, some of China's hugely productive exporters are eyeing a new market: the Chinese.
"China's ability to consume has now reached a fairly high level. It's at a turning point," says Tandem's general manager, Tom Tseng. Incomes are rising in China and people can afford more high-quality goods, he says, while "in the U.S., people now only want to buy cheap things."

FT: "Asian business leaders are confident about economic recovery, according to a survey of companies that have a market capitalisation of more than $1,000bn. The survey, which will be published this week by the Asia Business Council, an independent grouping for regional chief executives, found that 67 per cent think the economy will improve compared with just 6 per cent fearing it will worsen."

And Japan has a new government that at least says it intends to expand consumer demand and not focus only on exporters.

World population is reported as being 6.8 billion. The highly developed, prosperous US, Europe, Canada, and Japan have about the 0.8 billion people. That leaves 6 billion people striving to attain our standard of living. The rest of the world is going to lead this next tidal wave of economic growth. Investors have to climb onto that trend and sit.

The trends are very strong and positive.


Big rally yesterday. I did nothing, as I made dip buys on Friday. I'll ride this bull elephant awhile, enjoying the view of the landscape and looking for signs of change.

Word of the Day

"Propaedeutic" - adjective and noun [$10]; from the files ... and used by Big Al recently.
Propaedeutic (adjective) means serving as an introduction to higher study, introductory; (noun - especially in plural) preliminary learning; a propaedeutic subject, study.
Sentence: As Obama continues to bloviate, unfortunately he's still doing his propaedeutics for running the government on the job.

Das Wort der Woche

"Machen" - verb, regular
Machen means to do, to make.
Der Satz: Ich machte nichts.
Sentence: I am doing nothing.


Spin-em said...

OPERATION SOLARBOY IN EFFECT....(this is only a drill)

Bunkerman said...

lololol "sunboy" sounds better.

Hope you don't unplug the backup ...

Spin-em said...

loooool thats the word...

Bud said...

good morning Bman !!!

your take on the housing index ?? has housing bottomed ??

Bud said...

Bman is wilbur ross a real buyer ??
he talks like one but often acts like a beefer

Bud said...

tried a new coffee this morning

it's called 'mint condition'...........basically a mocha with whipped cream and minty candy.............delicous

Bud said...

Bman have you read alot of bill safire over the years ?? 'the mencken of our times'

Bud said...

where's my pal frosty ???

what a demolition job by the oregon 'beavers' this weekend.............i love those throwback uniforms

i'm on fire in college pigskin.......my bookie no longer takin my action.....

" you're too good sal..........i can't beat you "

Bud said...

what a wild morning in the spoos........futures love the housing numbers.................but what do i know.........remember i am just a ping-pong player........i am just an emini boy

Bunkerman said...

yes re housing bottom - that was this summer.

case-Schiller mostly measures year over year, so by time it flattens, the bottom is months in the past.

Bunkerman said...

Wilbur Ross is a private equity buyer.

To some extent he's real, but uses a lot of leverage, so in some respects is a beefer.

Bunkerman said...

no, I never read much of him, since he was in the NYTimes. I despise that paper.

He was the conservative that liberals loved ... tells one something.

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, it the market open ?

Or are the bears a bit wary of dip buyers ?