A long week is almost over, and 2009 has just a bit under one month left. Krypto checked her Fund yesterday and as much easy money has been made, Krypto hit the button on the computer to re-allocate. Good doggie ... here's your fee, a fine dog biscuit.
Krypto sold quite a bit of gold (the ETF - GLD), gold stocks, REIT index fund ETF (VNQ), and emerging market ETF (VWO) and the sister index fund. Overall this was about 3.5% of Krypto Fund holdings which were moved to money market funds. All the monies were in retirement accounts, hence no tax affects. TIPS and bonds (except certain municipal bonds) do not seem like good buys to me now, so I'll wait, probably a year until the Fed starts to raise rates. If the stock markets pull back, I can re-buy at lower prices. Patience, grasshopper ....
The speculative 1-2-3 Fund is mostly cash now, too, as all the S&P calls were sold earlier this week as posted. I have some MT stock, MT calls, HBC calls, BA calls and some RIMM, CX and VVUS. I expect a good jobs numbers and will likely take all sugar on all options on any ramp after the number - IF I'm right.
On a push towards S&P 1200, I will look for short plays. My first stop will be any market leaders that fail to make new recovery highs. Second will be whatever sectors I think might be over-extended and ready for a drop. I think the beefers are already distributing stocks like AAPL, GS, etc. They will pull the trigger on all their holdings before year end IF their management fees seem in danger.
I don't expect a big pullback unless something bad happens, like Obama passing his cluster FUBAR health plan. IF that passes, job stagnation will rule for a decade or more.
Yesterday's late selloff had two possible causes: (1) GS put out a negative forecast for this AM's job number to select clients (GS does this the day before the number recently), or (2) general big cap selling by institutions raising funds to buy the BAC offering. Or both.
That BAC offering was something called "Common Equivalent Securities" - CES for short. I suppose they came from some investment banking firm's CESspool. What a bunch of s&^% ! If you want to sell stock, sell stock. Only a fool hasn't learned that complexity is costly and dangerous. Of course, BAC is still run by fools and cads.
Word of the Day
"Desideratum" - noun [$10]
Desideratum means something desired as essential.
Sentence: Strong improvement on the job market is the crucial desideratum for further economic and market advances.
Showing posts with label Krypto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Krypto. Show all posts
Friday, December 4, 2009
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
An Apple A Day ...
keeps poverty away ?
I won't go that far, but no doubt the star performing company in these "crisis" times is Apple (AAPL). AAPL sells expensive consumer products. The perma-bears and pundits of gloom have been saying that "the consumer is dead" and "a new normal is here" and, as usual, "it's different this time. What does the data point - a real factual result - of AAPL say ? People want high quality, well designed products that work well. They will pay good prices for them. Period.
WSJ: "Apple Inc. continued to power through the recession as it posted a 47% quarterly profit jump as consumers continued to snap up its iPhones and Macintosh computers. The company also sounded an upbeat note for the holiday season, despite new competition in the smart-phone and PC markets. Shares of Apple surged more than 6% after the results were released, eclipsing $200. ... Apple also sold 3.1 million Macintosh computers in the quarter, up 17% from a year earlier, as it continued to gain ground on Windows-based machines. In the quarter, Apple released Snow Leopard, a major upgrade to its Mac operating system, and it said initial sales have been double that of the previous upgrade two years ago.
"Apple's strong results appear to indicate that overall consumer spending is recovering. Other technology companies have also recently posted positive earnings, including Intel Corp. and Google Inc. "This quarter really signals that we're coming out of the trough," said Gene Munster, an analyst for Piper Jaffray. "You don't see too many blow-out quarters like that, especially when you're the size of Apple." "
All those computers with Windows XP are targets for conversion to AAPL machines when they need replacement. Windows sucks so much, I've vowed to never buy another machine using Windows. I have written before that I think AAPL eventually gets 25% market share in PCs. That means plenty of growth for years.
The Sky Fund holds AAPL as one of its larger positions.
The Real
FT: "Brazil has imposed a 2 per cent tax effective from Tuesday on money entering the country to invest in equities and fixed income instruments. Direct investment in the productive economy will not be affected. The move, announced shortly before local markets closed on Monday evening, is designed to slow the appreciation of Brazil’s currency, the real, which has gained 36 per cent against the US dollar this year."
That is going to really hurt ETFs investing in emerging markets which are trading vehicles of speculators. That 2% vig on flows is a killer for frequent position adjustments. Beefers will also be hurt badly. I suppose that derivatives might permit some avoidance of it, but the firm selling the derivative might have trouble hedging the other side of the trade without paying.
I really don't like that coming from Brazil. Countries that talk big about free trade, but then impose a ham-handed tax on investors seem rather unstable. I wonder? Brazil's leaders did some stupid things on that Honduras mess, too. Perhaps those oil discoveries are causing a bit of hubris there.
Actions
I continue to check Krypto Fund after any large market moves. Soon perhaps I'll have to do some re-allocation and pay Krypto her management fee ... a dog biscuit. Sure beats paying a hedge fund manager.
I'm also monitoring positions in both 1-2-3 Fund and Fido Fund. As the prices get close to my mental targets, I'll take the sugar and move on. I don't wait for the music to stop before sitting down when I'm happy with the results. I'm not a hog. Hmm ... I wonder how that is said in French ?
French for "hog" is "le cochon" but they don't use that metaphor for greed. (btw, it's used for filth, dirt, smutty, etc.). Instead French uses "goinfre", an adjective or masculine noun. So from the unabridged dictionary, "He's a greedy pig" is "Il est un goinfre." or "C'est un vrai goinfre".
I'm not a hog -> Je ne suis pas un goinfre.
For fun: to say insultingly "you're a greedy pig" - "tu es un goinfre". BUT for "you're a dirty pig", use "le cochon" - > "tu es un cochon."
A real-time, multilingual blog !!!
Word of the Day
"Sophism" - noun [$10]
Sophism means 1. (normal usage) a false argument, especially one intended to deceive; 2. (argumentation theory) an eristic or contentious syllogism, distinguished from paralogism by intent to deceive.
Sentence: Most of the arguments raised in the debate on ObamaCare are sophisms designed for the network news or faxed "talking points".
Compare to paralogism: (Logic) 1. a fallacy; 2. illogical reasoning (especially of which the reasoner is unconscious). Paralogy is (a) the characteristic of having paralogisms inherent, or (b) a collection or grouping of paralogisms. Paralogy is a Mencken word - here's a fine quote referring to speeches given in the 1924 Republican convention: "the imbecile paralogy of the speeches." Hmm ... that could be written about convention speeches since around 1992.
I won't go that far, but no doubt the star performing company in these "crisis" times is Apple (AAPL). AAPL sells expensive consumer products. The perma-bears and pundits of gloom have been saying that "the consumer is dead" and "a new normal is here" and, as usual, "it's different this time. What does the data point - a real factual result - of AAPL say ? People want high quality, well designed products that work well. They will pay good prices for them. Period.
WSJ: "Apple Inc. continued to power through the recession as it posted a 47% quarterly profit jump as consumers continued to snap up its iPhones and Macintosh computers. The company also sounded an upbeat note for the holiday season, despite new competition in the smart-phone and PC markets. Shares of Apple surged more than 6% after the results were released, eclipsing $200. ... Apple also sold 3.1 million Macintosh computers in the quarter, up 17% from a year earlier, as it continued to gain ground on Windows-based machines. In the quarter, Apple released Snow Leopard, a major upgrade to its Mac operating system, and it said initial sales have been double that of the previous upgrade two years ago.
"Apple's strong results appear to indicate that overall consumer spending is recovering. Other technology companies have also recently posted positive earnings, including Intel Corp. and Google Inc. "This quarter really signals that we're coming out of the trough," said Gene Munster, an analyst for Piper Jaffray. "You don't see too many blow-out quarters like that, especially when you're the size of Apple." "
All those computers with Windows XP are targets for conversion to AAPL machines when they need replacement. Windows sucks so much, I've vowed to never buy another machine using Windows. I have written before that I think AAPL eventually gets 25% market share in PCs. That means plenty of growth for years.
The Sky Fund holds AAPL as one of its larger positions.
The Real
FT: "Brazil has imposed a 2 per cent tax effective from Tuesday on money entering the country to invest in equities and fixed income instruments. Direct investment in the productive economy will not be affected. The move, announced shortly before local markets closed on Monday evening, is designed to slow the appreciation of Brazil’s currency, the real, which has gained 36 per cent against the US dollar this year."
That is going to really hurt ETFs investing in emerging markets which are trading vehicles of speculators. That 2% vig on flows is a killer for frequent position adjustments. Beefers will also be hurt badly. I suppose that derivatives might permit some avoidance of it, but the firm selling the derivative might have trouble hedging the other side of the trade without paying.
I really don't like that coming from Brazil. Countries that talk big about free trade, but then impose a ham-handed tax on investors seem rather unstable. I wonder? Brazil's leaders did some stupid things on that Honduras mess, too. Perhaps those oil discoveries are causing a bit of hubris there.
Actions
I continue to check Krypto Fund after any large market moves. Soon perhaps I'll have to do some re-allocation and pay Krypto her management fee ... a dog biscuit. Sure beats paying a hedge fund manager.
I'm also monitoring positions in both 1-2-3 Fund and Fido Fund. As the prices get close to my mental targets, I'll take the sugar and move on. I don't wait for the music to stop before sitting down when I'm happy with the results. I'm not a hog. Hmm ... I wonder how that is said in French ?
French for "hog" is "le cochon" but they don't use that metaphor for greed. (btw, it's used for filth, dirt, smutty, etc.). Instead French uses "goinfre", an adjective or masculine noun. So from the unabridged dictionary, "He's a greedy pig" is "Il est un goinfre." or "C'est un vrai goinfre".
I'm not a hog -> Je ne suis pas un goinfre.
For fun: to say insultingly "you're a greedy pig" - "tu es un goinfre". BUT for "you're a dirty pig", use "le cochon" - > "tu es un cochon."
A real-time, multilingual blog !!!
Word of the Day
"Sophism" - noun [$10]
Sophism means 1. (normal usage) a false argument, especially one intended to deceive; 2. (argumentation theory) an eristic or contentious syllogism, distinguished from paralogism by intent to deceive.
Sentence: Most of the arguments raised in the debate on ObamaCare are sophisms designed for the network news or faxed "talking points".
Compare to paralogism: (Logic) 1. a fallacy; 2. illogical reasoning (especially of which the reasoner is unconscious). Paralogy is (a) the characteristic of having paralogisms inherent, or (b) a collection or grouping of paralogisms. Paralogy is a Mencken word - here's a fine quote referring to speeches given in the 1924 Republican convention: "the imbecile paralogy of the speeches." Hmm ... that could be written about convention speeches since around 1992.
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