Tuesday, June 9, 2009

HItting the Wall

California spending will do that soon. Big spender Arnold should soon be forced to actually cut and make real decisions on priorities. He's been a colossal failure and disappointment as for a few years he's been a rubber stamp for squandering the State's wealth.

The Boston Globe might do that soon, too. The left-wing militant Newspaper Guild (a union) has rejected pay cuts necessary to stop the bleeding. Notably, the true "workers" - viz. printers and drivers - agreed to cuts, but the leftist intellectual writers did not. So much for Marx. I have personally despised the Boston Globe writing for decades, so "good riddance" if the paper closes.

Obama says he will "create or save" 600,000 jobs over the next 100 days. Sure. Talk is easy.

And from WSJ: "The Obama administration is backing away from seeking a major reduction in the number of agencies overseeing financial markets, people familiar with the matter say, ..."

A great opportunity is being squandered.

Here's the new name for Obama: "La Grande Bouche". Big Mouth. All talk, no action.

Word of the Day

"Verein" - noun [$100] from German
Verein means a union, association or society.
Sentence: Intransigence at leftist vereins leads to pain for workers either in the short or long term. Their ideological leaders seem incapable of rational decisions.

Le Mot du Jour

"Gueule" - noun, feminine. Many usages are insulting, low (*) or vulgar (**).
Gueule means mouth or face: 1. "ferme ta gueule!" = Shut up!* ; "ta gueule!" = get stuffed!** "un fort en gueule" or "un grande gueule" = loudmouth; 2. face - "il a une belle gueule" = he's good looking; "gueule de raie" = fish-face**; 3. (d'animal) mouth; 4. mouth, muzzle. "gueule de bois*" = hangover (literally, a face of wood).
La Phrase: Trop boire peut causer une gueule de bois.
Sentence: Drinking too much can cause a hangover.


Note: The unabridged dictionaries I use make a low or insulting term as * and a vulgar term as **. An obscene term gets ***.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Passel of Hogs Rewarded

Obama is using taxpayer money to reward a principal contributor to the bankruptcy of the US-owned auto industry, viz. the UAW.

For fifty years, the UAW was at the trough and was quite successful, obtaining health care, wage and pension benefits for its members far beyond anything common in the workplace. Two of the most idiotic benefits that management capitulated to give were retirement at full pay after 30 years and payments of wages while laid off. The full health care benefits for such early retirees is a close third. Remember, these are not low paid, government clerks or soldiers, but persons whose cash wages made them well up on the pay distribution.

Fine. That was what they negotiated and the companies accepted. I have no problem for that. People should try to obtain the most pay and benefits they can.

BUT ... these contributed to driving GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy. And now who is paying for this ? The US taxpayer. And cheated bondholders.

Some of these very bondholders purchased obligations of GM that were sold to FUND the pension plan. Now they are being given cents on the dollar while the obligations of the pension plan are being transferred in full to the new GM. No write-down for them.

These GM and Chrysler "reorganizations" are wholesale looting of the bondholders AND the US taxpayer. Obama is forgiving billions of debt incurred to the taxpayer. He is trampling on decades of precedence in bankruptcy to favor the UAW and labor.

According to Barron's, the UAW and related entities are receiving between 60 and 70 cents on the dollar for the post-retirement health benefits AND the full pension benefits are being transferred to the surviving new companies. That means they pay for the full retirement pay after 30 years, which can be at age 50.

Bondholders who lent in good faith to GM are getting around 15 cents on the dollar. The UAW recovery is 4-5x that of the bondholders. Even the taxpayer gets less than the UAW, around 50 cents on the dollar for super-senior debtor in possession financing.

Here's what the UAW said about its deal: "For our active members, these tentative changes mean no loss in your hourly base, no reduction in your health care and no reduction in pensions." Quite a deal for one of the guilty parties. Obama protects his supporters.

This whole procedure and outcome is so outrageous. But I don't expect the courts to intervene. They are part of the government and quite political at times. For now, I fear they will bent over for the new golden boy in town.

The unintended consequence: no lender in its sane mind would ever lend to either GM or Chrysler ever in the future. That means these two firms will NEVER cease being wards of the US taxpayer. Obama is curing a short term problem with a long term disaster.

I'm glad I bought an SUV made in Alabama, not by the UAW.

Word of the Day

"Paludal" - adjective [$10] a Mencken word
Paludal means 1. of a marsh; 2. malarial.
Sentence: Obama is leading the taxpayer into the paludal swamps of UAW appeasement, which destroyed two great companies. A bad move.

Le Mot Du Jour

"Amoureux, -euse" - adjective and noun (M.F)
Amoureux means (adjective) 1. in love (de with); 2. love, amorous; 3. amorous; (noun) lover; love; sweatheart.
La Phrase: L'homme du bunker est amoureux du mot.
Sentence: Bunkerman is a word lover.

Friday, June 5, 2009

TGIF

Nothing is happening. Obama is still on a world tour. Does he ever do anything except bloviate? And rob bondholders?

Rio Tinto's trenches collapsed - that is, the scorched earth anti-takeover sale of core assets to Chinalco to defend against BHP cratered. Obviously RTP top management should be all fired.

It's still raining cabinet ministers in the UK.

According to a poll conducted by Le Figaro, Americans and French people appreciate each other anew in equal amounts: about 47% have a favorable opinion of the other, vs. around 30% four years ago. The unfavorable opinion levels are in single digits now. A link follows.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/lefigaromagazine/2009/06/04/01006-20090604ARTFIG00595-francais-et-americains-s-apprecient-a-nouveau-.php

Tomorrow is the 65th anniversary of D-Day. I read in Le Figaro and Le Monde that Obama will visit Normandy. Let's hope he makes a good speech. I wonder if he can approach the moving speech of Ronald Reagan in 1984?

The movie, THE LONGEST DAY [as corrected] is really good and quite authentic. I have read a lot of nonfiction history and can confirm its quality. Also, the movie follows the book by Cornelius Ryan quite closely, too. I'll watch the movie again tomorrow - yes, I have the DVD.

Mozillo charged with insider trading. Finally, a big shot might pay for his greed. What a hog at the trough !!!

Futures are up ... for now.

Word of the Day

"Repristinate" - verb, transitive [$10]
Repristinate means to restore to an original state or condition.
Sentence: The investment strategy of the Obama Fund is that Battleship Ben plus Obama's weak stimulus plan will be able to repristinate the US economy. If so, large profits will ensue. So far, it's working.

Le Mot du Jour

"Ressentir" - transitive verb, conjugates like partir or sentir
Ressentir mand to feel, to experience, to be affected by.
La Phrase: Selon le sondage, 47% d'Américanes ressentent la sympathie pour la France maintenant. Peut-être, je suis à l'avant-guarde de nouveau intérêt à la langue française.
Sentence: According to the poll, 47% of Americans feel friendship for France now. Perhaps I am in the vanguard of new interest in the French language?

By the way, "la sympathie" means liking, friendship in this usage, not sympathy.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Why Isn't it Friday ?

Nothing is happening. Let's end the week now.

The singular item of note is that United Airline is putting out a bid 150 new jets. It's an example of a firm looking to the future when the world becomes normal again.

That's what Obama Fund and Fido Fund have done. Good results after a tough start ... so far.

Ms. Market rallied nicely towards yesterday's close. And futures are up this morning.

Word of the Day

"Fain" - adjective and adverb[$10] archaic
Fain means (predicate adjective) (followed by 'to + infinitive') 1. willing under the circumstances to; 2. left with no alternative but to; (adverb) gladly (especially 'would fain')
Sentence: Thank goodness Battleship Ben is fain to break the old Fed behavior patterns and do strong monetary moves.

Le Mot du Jour

None this morning . I'm working on a Polish sentence for "Bunkerman will be drinking Scotch soon" for after the close today. Very subtle.

A Sexa-Lingual Treat.

Suppose someone annoys you and is an arrogant bastard. Here is how to tell him off in six languages. Just add his name after the exclamation.

English: Go to H***!
French: Allez l’enfer!
German: Geh zum Teufel!
Polish: Idż do diabła!
Italian: Va' all'inferno! or Va' al diavolo!
Spanish: ¡Vete al diablo!

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

A Whatnot Wednesday

Not much happening.

Angela Merkel - the German Chancellor - opens her mouth on Central Banks and reveals a deep, broad level of ignorance.

Stocks held up well yesterday.

Another hedge fund craters.

Obama to visit Egypt.

It's raining British cabinet resignations.

Europeans stocks are down early; US stock futures are down a bit.

Doing nothing. I'm taking Sky to sheep herding lessons this morning, so will be out most of the day.

Word of the Day

"Wowser" - noun [$10] Australian slang
Wowser means 1. a puritanical fanatic; 2. a spoilsport; 3 a teetotaler.
Sentence: Germany's Merkel reveals herself as a typical German inflation wowser.

Le Mot du Jour

"Étoile" - noun, feminine
Étoile means star (astronomical, object or figuratively)
La Phrase: Étoile Blanche, c'est le nom de nouvelle voiture de ma femme.
Sentence: White Star, it's the name of my wife's new car.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Big Move Up. Now What?

Yesterday the S&P 500 cracked through the upper resistance levels to move to intermediate term open water.

Why?

WSJ: "Driving stocks and commodities was news from across the globe that orders for manufactured goods were finally beginning to recover. A survey in the U.S. showed manufacturing orders picked up for the first time in 18 months. Manufacturing surveys in China, India and Europe also showed signs either of slowing declines or actual growth."

Maybe. A few weeks ago another big more up happened on a Monday, but then the market consolidated for awhile. This move broke out of the consolidation range. I'd guess a huge number of beefer hedge funds are underperforming massively and are in panic mode.

Usually they pile into momentum winners and after a few weeks all bail out at once in a correction. So what to do?

I plan to flip some winners and recent adds into future strength to cut back over time to 100% long. I like to be longer on dips, but on breakouts I like to cut back. This way the brutal corrections are not so painful, and I have money to make adds on dips.

Obama Fund is performing marvellously, as is Fido Fund. I will stick to the strategy: this is month 5 out of the envisioned 18 month rebound.

Target: S&P 1200+ by mid 2010.

Word of the Day

"Debouchement" - noun from the intransitive verb, "Debouch" [$10];
"Debouch" this is pronounced di bowch with the stress on the last syllable.
Debouch means 1. (of troops or a stream) issue from a ravine, wood, etc. into open ground; 2. (often followed by 'into'; of a river, road, etc.) merge into a larger body or area.
Sentence: Yesterday's debouchement of stock prices into intermediate term "blue sky" country must be making bearish beefers sweat.

Le Mot Du Jour

"Déboucher" - verb, regular -er conjugation
Déboucher means (transitive) to unblock, to uncork, to open; (intransitive) to emerge, to come out (+ sur ou dans).
La Phrase: Hier cours du marché des actions ont débouché en haut sur les espaces ouverts.
Sentence: Yesterday stock market prices emerged upwards onto open spaces.

Monday, June 1, 2009

On the first Monday in June, 2009

GM will file a petition for voluntary bankrupcty. A 100 year-old firm that was for decades the largest corporation by sales in the world bites the dust. Why? Management stupidity and union greed. The industry and product did NOT evolve away. New products did NOT replace the need for automobiles. Very large automotive manufacturers DO exist today. This is simply a matter of human failures at GM. People and their decisions do matter. Tolstoy was wrong.

More strange news coming out ...

FT: China’s manufacturing sector continued to expand for the third straight month in May, according to the country’s official purchasing managers’ index, a sign that the government’s stimulus package is starting to have an impact and that the recovery is likely to broaden. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Monday said the index pulled back slightly to 53.1 in May from 53.3 a month earlier. A reading above 50 signals an expansion while one below the threshold reflects a contraction.

Well, well, communist leaders in China seems to know how to do an economic stimulus program better than Americans. Remarkable.

Or maybe there is something to decoupling. I think there is. It’s not a perfect decoupling. Who ever said it would be perfect (other than big mouth pundits on Toshvision)?

WSJ: GM to file for bankruptcy today after a majority of bondholders voted to accept a revised offer. Obversely, Chrysler might come out of bankruptcy today as a unit of Fiat.

Futures are up big this morning. Copper prices are up. The German DAX is up over 3%. I wonder if the GM BK and its not being the train wreck that pundits forecast and bears were salivating over signal a capitulation of a large group of bears ?

Snidely Whiplash was a character in the old Dudley Doright cartoons that were part of the Rocky & Bullwinkle TV show that I watched with joy as a boy. He was a caricature of evil and bad behavior. The modern Snidely Whiplash seems to be banks. The WSJ has an article how they violate the spirit if not the letter of the law by grabbing social security and disability benefits to pay fees on garnished bank accounts. This populist libertarian is sick of banks and their rapacious efforts for make more and more money from simple products.

Only so much money can be made from services such as checking accounts and credit cards. Banks simply should accept that and cease these endless piranha bites. For example, after using my Bank of America Visa card in London, I received a notice that in the future, Bank of America will charge 4% [sic] for foreign currency transactions. How ridiculously greedy! What will I do? Easy, use a different credit card. To me, anything over 2% is simply robbery. After all, the banks are already getting some interchange fees on the transactions and the foreign currency conversions done in bulk cost them next to nothing.

Capital One is reported to charge nothing extra for foreign currency transactions. I now plan to obtain one of their credit cards for the future.

Further in the saving bits of money department, I see from an ad in Barron’s and checking it out, that Ameritrade is now robbing me on the cost of margin loans. I suppose this goes back to the Lehman debacle. From memory, they were once fair. They are now charging over 8% while the broker call rate in Barron’s is 2%. I’ll call them today to let them know that I’ll be changing accounts to Interactive Brokers over this matter. IB charges about 2%, and the commissions are lower, too.

Actions

My Krypto Fund asset allocation model commands me to sell some emerging markets funds and buy REIT funds. As an intraday trading tactic, this morning early I'll let some VWO go, but will wait for a late-morning or midday pullback to buy the VNQ. This has worked well recently.

Word of the Day

"Panoptic" - adjective [$10]
Panoptic means showing or seeing the whole at one view.
Sentence: If any government official has panoptic vision over the economy, he is Battleship Ben.

Le Mot du Jour

"Faillite" - noun, feminine
Faillite means bankruptcy (d'entreprise); collapse, failure (d'espoir, méthod).
La Phrase: GM déclarera en faillite aujourd'hui.
Sentence: GM will declare bankruptcy today.