News, stocks, weather ... trendless lately.
In case anyone missed it with all the bloviation about the 40% rally from the lows, all that "rally" really did was erase the February Obama-Timmy panic. Prices are mostly just back to the rough levels of October. What does this mean ? Fears of another downleg are being erased. Now dealing with the beefer-induced recession ...
I wonder how many people notice that huge "air pocket" in resistance from S&P 900 to S&P 1200 ? That's the drop caused by the Viking shorts & beefers in raids on the world financial system - courtesy of the arms race approved by the SEC and Elmer (viz., removal of uptick rule, creation & non-regulation of credit default swap derivatives, no naked short rules, non-regulation of hedge funds, etc.) and the huge concentration of wealth in trading hedge funds by the dumb rich.
My take: a bit of good news in economic growth will cause a buying panic and explosion in stock prices to S&P 1200 "real" resistance.
FT: "German business confidence has brightened more than expected this month with companies in Europe’s largest economy becoming markedly more upbeat on prospects for the next six months."
Blabberg says insiders are selling heavily. I suppose they have gotten the message of diversification, viz., don't put most of your net worth in your companies' stock. If the company gets into trouble, you can lose both your job and your life's savings.
Lots of "talks" going on: Turkey talks to IMF, Russia talks about deep nuclear cuts, China and US in talks on military. Xstrata in merger talks with Anglo American. Maybe Obamitis is contagious - Obamitis is a new syndrome of talking, not doing.
Voting in Iran seems to have been conducted in the style of old Chicago. Surveys show more votes cast that voters in many places. Hmmm ...
Doing nothing today, except working on my languages. If "they" knock stocks down to S&P 900, I'll start looking for adds.
Word of the Day
"Declamation" - noun [$10] and "Declaim" - verb [$10]
Declamation means 1. act of speaking pompously or bombastically: harangue; 2. rhetorically delivered speech or reciting in elocution.
Declaim means 1. to speak or utter rhetorically or affectedly; 2. practise oratory or recitation; 3. protest forcefully; 4. deliver an impassioned (rather than reasoned) speech.
Sentence: Obama is obviously a master of declamation, but as for "doing", his very poor record in filling many important Federal posts shows he does not have management skill.
La Palabra de la Semana
[That's "the word of the day" in Spanish. My multilingual exercises in using the verb, "to drink" continue.]
"Tomar" - verb, regular -ar conjugation
Tomar means to drink.
La frase: Ayer tomé dos cervezas. Yesterday I drank two beers. Ahora tomo un café sin leche o azúcar. Now I am drinking a coffee without milk or sugar. [that's also 'un café solo', I think.] Tomaré dos cervezas esta noche. I will drink two beers tonight.
Notice that like Latin, Spanish usually leaves the subject pronouns out, as they are redundant due to the verb endings. Polish & Italian do that, too.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Friday, June 19, 2009
Back from the Beast
New York City seems to be coping quite well ... so far. Of course the bears are talking gloom, but the bar was packed, as were the lunch rooms at the clubs. Even the dining room was quite busy.
Fashions seemed alive, too. I saw fewer men in "undertaker" uniforms, and less black in women's fashions. No 1970s era "earth -mother" fashions were in sight. Fashionable tailored pants or skirts several inches over the knee was the rule. The Apple store on Fifth Avenue was crowded at 3PM on a weekday. The fashion indicator is NOT 'flashing" a depression or even a severe recession.
I'll read more about Timmy's financial regulation reforms, but so far, it's OK. He included regulations for hedge funds and all derivatives - both good. I have some problems with relying on these agencies like the SEC. It's still obviously on the take from the Street, as it continues to approve these fraudulent ETFs designed solely for day trading. But I need to read more and will comment more fully later.
Hmmm ... the index of leading indicators is up again. The Philly Fed - for what that's worth - was OK. I guess that cancels the recent poor Empire State number. Net zero, I'd say.
US News & World Report (online): "The Labor Department reported today that the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell for the first time since January, a sign that the economy is slowly recovering. Total unemployment rolls declined by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the first week of June, the largest weekly drop in more than seven years. The decline also breaks a streak of 21 consecutive weeks in which the number of people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week increased."
Sounds like the recession is over and growth is occurring. It's a long way back up, but ... up is up.
I suppose I'll be accused of "data mining". But gold nuggets found when mining are gold and up is up.
The recession ends when growth returns from whatever absolute level. That's the meaning of the terms. A "recession" has to have "recessing" - i. e., declines. Period.
An astute commentor suggested I look at RIMM for a buy. I had deferred for awhile, looking & thinking. I like what I see and plan to buy it for Fido Fund today. From my point of view, the Apple iPhone gets the business of the young and music/entertainment oriented consumer, while RIMM's Blackberry gets the business of the email oriented person. The markets are huge and both can do well. I like the revenue growth and new product innovations. Mrs. B has AAPL in her Sky Fund, so I'll put RIMM in Fido Fund.
Today is triple witching day so volatility could be large. If we get a pullback to the S&P 900 area, I'll probably add to many positions. Otherwise, I'll go over the Obama positions today to see what has had good dips.
Word of the Day
"Geminal" - adjective [$10]
Geminal means 1. of or relating to germs or of the nature of a germ; 2. in the earliest stage of development; 3. productive of new ideas.
Sentence: My language skills in French are rather developed, but for German, Polish, Italian and Spanish, they are much more geminal.
[In the spirit of a multilingual blog, I am switching to a penta-lingual "Word of the Week" for French, German, Polish, Italian and Spanish. I'll try one or two words of each a week and write a sentence using them. For some languages in which I have less skill, the words and sentences will be rather simple for awhile. Important words like drink, beer, wine and similar crucial concepts for humanity will be foundation for awhile.]
Das Worte der Woche
"Trinken" - verb, strong.
Trinken means to drink. The simple past Stem is trank. The past participle is getrunken. One can quickly recognize the common proto-Germanic roots of English and modern German. Compare drink-drank-drunk to trinken-trank-getrunken.
Der Satz: (A) Ich habe drei Biere gestern getrunken. OR (B) Gestern habe ich drei Biere getrunken. OR (C) Ich trank drie Biere gestern. OR (D) Gestern trank ich drei Biere.
Sentence: (A) I drank three beers yesterday. (B) Yesterday I drank three beers. C translates the same as A but uses the simple past tense instead of the conversational past. D translates the same as B, but also uses the simple past tense. German word order is quite sensitive. Putting the adverb, "yesterday" requires significant changes in verb-subject positions in German, versus no changes in English.
Fashions seemed alive, too. I saw fewer men in "undertaker" uniforms, and less black in women's fashions. No 1970s era "earth -mother" fashions were in sight. Fashionable tailored pants or skirts several inches over the knee was the rule. The Apple store on Fifth Avenue was crowded at 3PM on a weekday. The fashion indicator is NOT 'flashing" a depression or even a severe recession.
I'll read more about Timmy's financial regulation reforms, but so far, it's OK. He included regulations for hedge funds and all derivatives - both good. I have some problems with relying on these agencies like the SEC. It's still obviously on the take from the Street, as it continues to approve these fraudulent ETFs designed solely for day trading. But I need to read more and will comment more fully later.
Hmmm ... the index of leading indicators is up again. The Philly Fed - for what that's worth - was OK. I guess that cancels the recent poor Empire State number. Net zero, I'd say.
US News & World Report (online): "The Labor Department reported today that the number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits fell for the first time since January, a sign that the economy is slowly recovering. Total unemployment rolls declined by 148,000 to 6.69 million in the first week of June, the largest weekly drop in more than seven years. The decline also breaks a streak of 21 consecutive weeks in which the number of people collecting jobless benefits for more than a week increased."
Sounds like the recession is over and growth is occurring. It's a long way back up, but ... up is up.
I suppose I'll be accused of "data mining". But gold nuggets found when mining are gold and up is up.
The recession ends when growth returns from whatever absolute level. That's the meaning of the terms. A "recession" has to have "recessing" - i. e., declines. Period.
An astute commentor suggested I look at RIMM for a buy. I had deferred for awhile, looking & thinking. I like what I see and plan to buy it for Fido Fund today. From my point of view, the Apple iPhone gets the business of the young and music/entertainment oriented consumer, while RIMM's Blackberry gets the business of the email oriented person. The markets are huge and both can do well. I like the revenue growth and new product innovations. Mrs. B has AAPL in her Sky Fund, so I'll put RIMM in Fido Fund.
Today is triple witching day so volatility could be large. If we get a pullback to the S&P 900 area, I'll probably add to many positions. Otherwise, I'll go over the Obama positions today to see what has had good dips.
Word of the Day
"Geminal" - adjective [$10]
Geminal means 1. of or relating to germs or of the nature of a germ; 2. in the earliest stage of development; 3. productive of new ideas.
Sentence: My language skills in French are rather developed, but for German, Polish, Italian and Spanish, they are much more geminal.
[In the spirit of a multilingual blog, I am switching to a penta-lingual "Word of the Week" for French, German, Polish, Italian and Spanish. I'll try one or two words of each a week and write a sentence using them. For some languages in which I have less skill, the words and sentences will be rather simple for awhile. Important words like drink, beer, wine and similar crucial concepts for humanity will be foundation for awhile.]
Das Worte der Woche
"Trinken" - verb, strong.
Trinken means to drink. The simple past Stem is trank. The past participle is getrunken. One can quickly recognize the common proto-Germanic roots of English and modern German. Compare drink-drank-drunk to trinken-trank-getrunken.
Der Satz: (A) Ich habe drei Biere gestern getrunken. OR (B) Gestern habe ich drei Biere getrunken. OR (C) Ich trank drie Biere gestern. OR (D) Gestern trank ich drei Biere.
Sentence: (A) I drank three beers yesterday. (B) Yesterday I drank three beers. C translates the same as A but uses the simple past tense instead of the conversational past. D translates the same as B, but also uses the simple past tense. German word order is quite sensitive. Putting the adverb, "yesterday" requires significant changes in verb-subject positions in German, versus no changes in English.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Into the Belly of the Beast
I travel to NYC [midtown] this morning for some meetings and to see some museums. I'll be there through Thursday evening, so no new posts on Wednesday and Thursday.
Election turmoil in Iran continues. Those claims by the past leader of a resounding win seem far-fetched. Perhaps a big lie ?
Barry to bloviate more. What else is new?
Tonight I expect to have a Golden Kryptonite Martini as the "club" bar. It's quite a convivial place, but I know fewer and fewer people nowadays. Time marches on.
Congress seems unable to walk and chew gum at the same time. Financial regulatory overhaul is running into Barry's health care reform and climate change legislation.
My German is making good progress now. But that language sure has some weird constructions. Why would one separate a prefix from a verb and stick it at the end of a sentence or clause ? Weird. And these stem vowel changes are so common. They are a relic in English, too, of its Germanic roots. [e. g. drink, drank, drunk] Some linguists think these oddities go back to a melding of a Semitic language [Phoenician] to proto-German circa 500 B. C. E. Perhaps. This wierdness came from somewhere and not from early Indo-European.
I took Latin in high school and remember some. From a time and population movement perspective, Latin must be rather closer to Indo-European than many modern languages. And its grammar seems closer to Polish than to English, French, Spanish or German. Of course the words themselves are very different.
A language has two dimensions: its words and its grammar. Both are important for understanding linguistic roots. Too much attention is placed on simple word evolution. Grammar might be more important. I strongly recommend the books by John McWhorter on this subject and the Teaching Company CD course by him. He's an excellent lecturer and writer. and extremely knowledgeable without being pedantic.
A language is really a bundle of closely related dialects with one annointed "standard" dialect, usually from the region of capital city of the nation. Standard English comes from the London dialect; standard French from the Paris dialect; and Polish from the Warsaw dialect.
Enjoy the week. The blog will return Friday.
Word of the Day
"Clinal" - adjective [$10]; from cline - noun
Cline means 1. Biol. a graded sequence of differences within a species, etc.; 2. a continuum with an infinite number of gradations.
Sentence: "All peoples of the world speak complex varieties of language, differing in clinal degree from one another and often not assignable as any one "thing". [from McWorter, The Story of Human Language", notes for the Teaching Company CD course, part 3, page 28.]
Das Wort der Woche
That means, "Word of the Week" in German. Coming soon.
Słowo Tygodnia
That means, "Word of the Week" in Polish. Coming soon.
Election turmoil in Iran continues. Those claims by the past leader of a resounding win seem far-fetched. Perhaps a big lie ?
Barry to bloviate more. What else is new?
Tonight I expect to have a Golden Kryptonite Martini as the "club" bar. It's quite a convivial place, but I know fewer and fewer people nowadays. Time marches on.
Congress seems unable to walk and chew gum at the same time. Financial regulatory overhaul is running into Barry's health care reform and climate change legislation.
My German is making good progress now. But that language sure has some weird constructions. Why would one separate a prefix from a verb and stick it at the end of a sentence or clause ? Weird. And these stem vowel changes are so common. They are a relic in English, too, of its Germanic roots. [e. g. drink, drank, drunk] Some linguists think these oddities go back to a melding of a Semitic language [Phoenician] to proto-German circa 500 B. C. E. Perhaps. This wierdness came from somewhere and not from early Indo-European.
I took Latin in high school and remember some. From a time and population movement perspective, Latin must be rather closer to Indo-European than many modern languages. And its grammar seems closer to Polish than to English, French, Spanish or German. Of course the words themselves are very different.
A language has two dimensions: its words and its grammar. Both are important for understanding linguistic roots. Too much attention is placed on simple word evolution. Grammar might be more important. I strongly recommend the books by John McWhorter on this subject and the Teaching Company CD course by him. He's an excellent lecturer and writer. and extremely knowledgeable without being pedantic.
A language is really a bundle of closely related dialects with one annointed "standard" dialect, usually from the region of capital city of the nation. Standard English comes from the London dialect; standard French from the Paris dialect; and Polish from the Warsaw dialect.
Enjoy the week. The blog will return Friday.
Word of the Day
"Clinal" - adjective [$10]; from cline - noun
Cline means 1. Biol. a graded sequence of differences within a species, etc.; 2. a continuum with an infinite number of gradations.
Sentence: "All peoples of the world speak complex varieties of language, differing in clinal degree from one another and often not assignable as any one "thing". [from McWorter, The Story of Human Language", notes for the Teaching Company CD course, part 3, page 28.]
Das Wort der Woche
That means, "Word of the Week" in German. Coming soon.
Słowo Tygodnia
That means, "Word of the Week" in Polish. Coming soon.
Monday, June 15, 2009
Semi-Bad
So far that's how I'll grade Obama aka La Grande Bouche [The Big Mouth]. He's said a lots of things, and done little. Much of what he says causes worries, but I wonder how much will ever get through Congress. He gets semi-bad - not full bad - simply for getting the Stimulus Plan through. It was not a great plan - lots of wasteful, dumb spending - but has enough stimulus to get some impetus to the economy to stop the downward spiral.
Did anyone else notice that blurb in his speech at Normandy about one of the reasons D-Day invasion is revered was due to its "sheer improbability of success" ? What nonsense ! Montgomery and the allies spent two years building up forces and air superiority to make its likelihood of success high. I think that was a bit of fantasy by Obama or his speechwriters to try to connect Normandy to his "Yes We Can" slogan - succeeding against the odds. Of course that the connection is false for D-Day doesn't matter.
This is a problem with Obama - what is the connection to reality ? So far he's gotten a pass on it, but that won't last forever. Maybe a few more months, at best.
The title to today's blog is borrowed from that GREAT movie by Burt Reynolds, "Semi-Tough". The movie is a hilarious parody of 1970s self-help fads, like E.S.T, pyramid power, rolfing, etc. E. S. T is mocked as B.E.A.T. - Bismark Energy Attack Training, with its promoter, Friedrich Bismark. Hilarious skits poke fun at all that psychobabble nonsense about experiencing people and sharing space. One of my favorite lines is when Robert Preston, aka Big Ed Bookman, a NFL team owner from Dallas, slugs and tosses Friedrich Bismark onto a table saying, "experience this, you a**h***!.
Stocks were down in Asia and Europe and US futures are down. Ping-pong or a pullback? I don't know. I'm just sticking with the Obama Fund strategy and trading tactics.
Estimated taxes are due today for the second quarter. So much money for so little. Ugh!
Word of the Day
"Tocsin" - noun [$10] American Indian term
Tocsin means 1. an alarm bell or the ringing of it; 2. a warning signal.
Sentence: I'll stick with my Obama Fund strategy until I hear a reality-based tocsin.
Le Mot du Jour
"Marcher" - verb, regular -er conjugation
Marcher means 1. to walk, to march; 2. to agree, to play along; 3. to work (in sense of to function).
La Phrase: La stratégie des Fonds d'Obama marche très bien jusqu'ici cette année.
Sentence: The strategy of the Obama Fund is working very well so far this year.
Did anyone else notice that blurb in his speech at Normandy about one of the reasons D-Day invasion is revered was due to its "sheer improbability of success" ? What nonsense ! Montgomery and the allies spent two years building up forces and air superiority to make its likelihood of success high. I think that was a bit of fantasy by Obama or his speechwriters to try to connect Normandy to his "Yes We Can" slogan - succeeding against the odds. Of course that the connection is false for D-Day doesn't matter.
This is a problem with Obama - what is the connection to reality ? So far he's gotten a pass on it, but that won't last forever. Maybe a few more months, at best.
The title to today's blog is borrowed from that GREAT movie by Burt Reynolds, "Semi-Tough". The movie is a hilarious parody of 1970s self-help fads, like E.S.T, pyramid power, rolfing, etc. E. S. T is mocked as B.E.A.T. - Bismark Energy Attack Training, with its promoter, Friedrich Bismark. Hilarious skits poke fun at all that psychobabble nonsense about experiencing people and sharing space. One of my favorite lines is when Robert Preston, aka Big Ed Bookman, a NFL team owner from Dallas, slugs and tosses Friedrich Bismark onto a table saying, "experience this, you a**h***!.
Stocks were down in Asia and Europe and US futures are down. Ping-pong or a pullback? I don't know. I'm just sticking with the Obama Fund strategy and trading tactics.
Estimated taxes are due today for the second quarter. So much money for so little. Ugh!
Word of the Day
"Tocsin" - noun [$10] American Indian term
Tocsin means 1. an alarm bell or the ringing of it; 2. a warning signal.
Sentence: I'll stick with my Obama Fund strategy until I hear a reality-based tocsin.
Le Mot du Jour
"Marcher" - verb, regular -er conjugation
Marcher means 1. to walk, to march; 2. to agree, to play along; 3. to work (in sense of to function).
La Phrase: La stratégie des Fonds d'Obama marche très bien jusqu'ici cette année.
Sentence: The strategy of the Obama Fund is working very well so far this year.
Friday, June 12, 2009
TGIF
Nothing is happening. Let's call it a week and have a three day weekend.
Timmy continues to crawfish away from real financial sector reform.
La Grande Bouche dit encore. [translation: The Big Mouth is still talking.]
Stocks continue to consolidate recent gains.
Word of the Day
"Propaedeutic" - adjective [$10] from the card file
Propaedeutic means needed as preparation for learning or study.
Sentence: Yesterday Bunkerman received the propaedeutic workbooks that he ordered for German. Real progress can now be made.
Le Mot du Jour
"Voisin, voisine" - noun M,F
Voisin means neighbor.
La Phrase: L'homme du bunker croire que le meilleur voisin n'est pas de voisin.
Sentence: Bunkerman thinks that the best neighbor is no neighbor.
Timmy continues to crawfish away from real financial sector reform.
La Grande Bouche dit encore. [translation: The Big Mouth is still talking.]
Stocks continue to consolidate recent gains.
Word of the Day
"Propaedeutic" - adjective [$10] from the card file
Propaedeutic means needed as preparation for learning or study.
Sentence: Yesterday Bunkerman received the propaedeutic workbooks that he ordered for German. Real progress can now be made.
Le Mot du Jour
"Voisin, voisine" - noun M,F
Voisin means neighbor.
La Phrase: L'homme du bunker croire que le meilleur voisin n'est pas de voisin.
Sentence: Bunkerman thinks that the best neighbor is no neighbor.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
What Does It Mean ?
By "it", I refer to the rise in the yield on ten year US Treasury notes to nearly 4%. This is so easy, yet oddly, the doomsayers and pundits on Toshvision and Blabberg seem not to grasp it.
It's a harbinger of a return to normalcy. It means the "panic premium" on US Treasury debt is going away - gone. Buyers want a rational, real return, not just "safety" at any price. If a buyer doesn't get the expected core inflation rate [i. e. 2%] plus a real return of 2% on those notes, then he's either stupid or panicked. For the US 30-year bond, he should get about 3% "real" in my opinion.
The marginal buyer of 10 to 30 year US Treasury debt is now a "real" buyer, not a speculator or a panicked investor or even a Central Bank needing dollar investments. Real buyers mean normalcy in debt markets. This is good.
FT says stock funds got positive cash flows again last week for the twelfth straight week. The accompanying chart was interesting. During the three week Obama panic, cash flows were hugely negative. Otherwise, the flows are positive for many weeks.
Obama Fund is performing well. Yesterday I flipped bits of AKS, SPAR and SSCCQ. Their position sizes had gotten too large. This is just portfolio management. I still like all three stocks. [Beware: SSCCQ is ultra-risky as a stock.]
Word of the Day
"Descry" - verb, transitive [$10] literary
Descry means to catch sight of, discern.
Sentence: Bunkerman descries the return to normalcy.
Le Mot du Jour
"En" - this is a ubiquitous word in French with many uses as a preposition, an indefinite pronoun and in expressions. For today's Le Mot du Jour, I've picked one usage which was the subject of a French workbook lesson last evening. Which I did imbibing a glass on fine French wine - an excellent 2005 Pomerol.
En means (indefinite quantity) 'of it', 'of them'.
La Phrase: Les Fonds d'Obama ont cinqante actions, mais les Fonds d'Fido en ont juste neuf.
Sentence: Obama Fund has 50 stocks, but Fido Fund has just nine of them. [NB: The 'of them' is often not translated or expressed in English, but the 'en' is mandatory in French.]
It's a harbinger of a return to normalcy. It means the "panic premium" on US Treasury debt is going away - gone. Buyers want a rational, real return, not just "safety" at any price. If a buyer doesn't get the expected core inflation rate [i. e. 2%] plus a real return of 2% on those notes, then he's either stupid or panicked. For the US 30-year bond, he should get about 3% "real" in my opinion.
The marginal buyer of 10 to 30 year US Treasury debt is now a "real" buyer, not a speculator or a panicked investor or even a Central Bank needing dollar investments. Real buyers mean normalcy in debt markets. This is good.
FT says stock funds got positive cash flows again last week for the twelfth straight week. The accompanying chart was interesting. During the three week Obama panic, cash flows were hugely negative. Otherwise, the flows are positive for many weeks.
Obama Fund is performing well. Yesterday I flipped bits of AKS, SPAR and SSCCQ. Their position sizes had gotten too large. This is just portfolio management. I still like all three stocks. [Beware: SSCCQ is ultra-risky as a stock.]
Word of the Day
"Descry" - verb, transitive [$10] literary
Descry means to catch sight of, discern.
Sentence: Bunkerman descries the return to normalcy.
Le Mot du Jour
"En" - this is a ubiquitous word in French with many uses as a preposition, an indefinite pronoun and in expressions. For today's Le Mot du Jour, I've picked one usage which was the subject of a French workbook lesson last evening. Which I did imbibing a glass on fine French wine - an excellent 2005 Pomerol.
En means (indefinite quantity) 'of it', 'of them'.
La Phrase: Les Fonds d'Obama ont cinqante actions, mais les Fonds d'Fido en ont juste neuf.
Sentence: Obama Fund has 50 stocks, but Fido Fund has just nine of them. [NB: The 'of them' is often not translated or expressed in English, but the 'en' is mandatory in French.]
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
What is Normal?
1200.
That's where the S&P would be if the SEC and CFTC and Congress had not gutted financial market regulation to let the Vikings rape & pillage stocks without any rules or regulation.
[Doubters: when Warren Buffet and George Soros agree with Bunkerman, question your thinking.]
And the panic happened last July to October. The retirement savings of middle America was gutted by 35%. The drop stunned the people and they reacted, gutting spending on everything. The real recession began. Thank you, libertarians. I hope you enjoyed the fruits of your "no regulation" mantra. Letting the Vikings raid the financial landscape sure helped, didn't it.
So the panic dropped the markets to the 800-900 range last fall. Then the Obama "panic of the conservatives" dropped it 666 in March. All the rally from early March to April did was wipe out the Obama panic, to get the markets back to the fall trading range, i. e. to the Viking Raid panic levels. The "too far, too fast" crowd doesn't seem to recognize that. Erasing a panic fall - which did go too far down too fast - is NOT becoming overextended. The baseline is the fall trading range.
The stock markets have been consolidating in those levels since late March. Now the S&P 500 is over its 200 day moving average. The 50 day moving average is rising.
Commodity prices are rising, perhaps to re-entry by speculators, or perhaps to user hedging. Shipping rates are rising. Demand in Asia is rebounding. And all that "stimulus" money remains to be spent. The Fed is still accomodative. TALF is working. Well-run major banks are re-paying TARP monies foisted on them.
Lots of pain exists in housing, especially in the sun and surf areas where speculators & the second home crowd played. And the jobs market stinks. Thanks to the Vikings. And the financial libertarians. But all the newly free people of the world want to improve their lives and that tailwind is huge.
Obama Fund is sitting long at about 125% long on stocks that should continue to outperform on a "Return to Normalcy".
Word of the Day
"Crawfish" - noun and verb [$10]
Crawfish means (noun) = crayfish; (intransitive verb) (often followed by 'out') US colloquial retreat, back out.
Sentence: As Bunkerman watches Congress and the Obama administration crawfish away from real, comprehensive reform of the financial markets and regulation, he feels disgust and anger.
Le Mot du Jour
"Salir" - verb, regular -ir conjugation
Salir means 1. to make dirty, to make a mess in, to mess up; 2. to corrupt, to defile.
Le Phrase: Les libertaires de la haute finance salissent le monde.
Sentence: The libertarians of high finance messed up the world.
That's where the S&P would be if the SEC and CFTC and Congress had not gutted financial market regulation to let the Vikings rape & pillage stocks without any rules or regulation.
- They repealed Glass-Steagal to let banks speculate in the financial markets with depositors' money.
- They dropped the uptick rule so raids could push stocks down with no relief to cause fear & panic.
- They gutted efforts to regulate derivatives, which then let credit default swaps and equity derivatives become new "weapons of mass destruction" for the Vikings to manipulate stocks and cause more panic.
- They permitted creation of uncountable numbers of short and ultra short ETFs that are essentially betting machines for speculators.
- And they opened the field to the Street market makers via the Madoff rule and the ETF short sale rules to let market makers "print" stocks to short with NO rules at all. Short selling of nonexistent shares rose to huge amounts.
[Doubters: when Warren Buffet and George Soros agree with Bunkerman, question your thinking.]
And the panic happened last July to October. The retirement savings of middle America was gutted by 35%. The drop stunned the people and they reacted, gutting spending on everything. The real recession began. Thank you, libertarians. I hope you enjoyed the fruits of your "no regulation" mantra. Letting the Vikings raid the financial landscape sure helped, didn't it.
So the panic dropped the markets to the 800-900 range last fall. Then the Obama "panic of the conservatives" dropped it 666 in March. All the rally from early March to April did was wipe out the Obama panic, to get the markets back to the fall trading range, i. e. to the Viking Raid panic levels. The "too far, too fast" crowd doesn't seem to recognize that. Erasing a panic fall - which did go too far down too fast - is NOT becoming overextended. The baseline is the fall trading range.
The stock markets have been consolidating in those levels since late March. Now the S&P 500 is over its 200 day moving average. The 50 day moving average is rising.
Commodity prices are rising, perhaps to re-entry by speculators, or perhaps to user hedging. Shipping rates are rising. Demand in Asia is rebounding. And all that "stimulus" money remains to be spent. The Fed is still accomodative. TALF is working. Well-run major banks are re-paying TARP monies foisted on them.
Lots of pain exists in housing, especially in the sun and surf areas where speculators & the second home crowd played. And the jobs market stinks. Thanks to the Vikings. And the financial libertarians. But all the newly free people of the world want to improve their lives and that tailwind is huge.
Obama Fund is sitting long at about 125% long on stocks that should continue to outperform on a "Return to Normalcy".
Word of the Day
"Crawfish" - noun and verb [$10]
Crawfish means (noun) = crayfish; (intransitive verb) (often followed by 'out') US colloquial retreat, back out.
Sentence: As Bunkerman watches Congress and the Obama administration crawfish away from real, comprehensive reform of the financial markets and regulation, he feels disgust and anger.
Le Mot du Jour
"Salir" - verb, regular -ir conjugation
Salir means 1. to make dirty, to make a mess in, to mess up; 2. to corrupt, to defile.
Le Phrase: Les libertaires de la haute finance salissent le monde.
Sentence: The libertarians of high finance messed up the world.
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