Monday, August 4, 2008

Survival

How mankind and the modern age survived the 20th century will be a rich topic for future historians. Three books which I've read or am reading have surprised me greatly in showing the ignorance and foolishness of leaders in the West. The unmitigated evil of the three 20th century tyrants is well-known (Hitler, Stalin and Mao), but the evils of Mao is still not accepted by China as his face appears everywhere there. Perhaps the story is not yet finished.

Here are the three books:

1. Walter Lippman and the American Century by Ronald Steele;
2. Reflections on a Ravaged Century by Robert Conquest; and
3. Armed Truce by Hugh Thomas.

Imagining small modifications in the distribution of power and human ability can easily create scenarios of the physical destruction of civilization; or decline to mass disorder and turmoil to a new Dark Age; or world domination by totalitarian tyrants. Freedom and modernity did survive, barely, but at huge costs in its human capital.

Perhaps this is why society and culture seems to have stagnated since around the 1920s. With little stability, no "Golden Age" can arise.

Current world problems seem miniscule by comparison to the events of the 20th century. Compare Islamic terrorism to Stalin ... Hitler ... Mao. The ratio seems similar to comparing a wife-beater to the Mafia and its Murder, Inc. Both are evil but the level and scale of the evil is massively different. Even today's economic problems seem puny. Look at the data for the Great Depression or even the severe 1974 recession. Today's "adjustion" to high energy prices and correction of housing overbuilding and speculation seem puny, too. So far, at least, the team of Battleship Ben and Hammerin' Hank has performed well. Perhaps man has learned some lessons of history.

Word of the Day

"Obtuse" - adjective [$10] (compare to "acute")
Obtuse means lacking sharpness or quickness of sensibility; 2. not sharp, pointed or acute in form; blunt.
Sentences: (A) No one paying attention can doubt that George W. Bush is one of the most obtuse Presidents in US history. (B) Raising interest rates would be quite an obtuse weapon for controlling the price of energy, certainly causing more pain than gain.

69 comments:

Bunkerman said...

Dark goddess Merdith coming on SquawkBox. More doom prophecies ?

Bunkerman said...

She's grasping now.

maverick said...

It is very refreshing to listen to the truth. Whitney has been dead on so far. The mortgage gravy bloat is over for a while. The fins will suffer on the bottom line. The stocks may recover but the gravy is gone.

Bunkerman said...

year over year core PCE 2.3% - no significant inflation

Bunkerman said...

time will tell.

lots of competition is gone ... spreads wider ...

survivors may prosper.

Guess I'm a detail oriented person, but didn't hear much that wasn't contradictory.

For example, the point she made about lost lending capacity being a "negative" - why complain about that when much of that "lending" was wasteful and wrong, e. g. subprime.

re home prices, well, why are about 1/2 markets going up ?

details, details.

re down payments ... many buyers have exsiting equity or will get it from parents ... like they did in the 1980s.

Most of her points really apply to the investment banks and dying "pure" mortgage bankers.

She was way off on Q2 numbers, by the way, for JPM, BAC, C and WFC.

Bunkerman said...

I was unimpressed with her.

Reminded me of Elaine Garzarelli.

Once right, then wrong for years.

But, I did not take the CDO/CBO/CLO contagion seriously, althought I was aware of that risk and wrote about it early on (Feb 2007). Big error for me. Very costly.

Bunkerman said...

Doomsters dominating squawk today.

Ugh...

Spin-em said...

Mav..."gravy bloat"....well done sir..lol(you were chompin at the bit to use that one)

mern said...

meredith getting all this press becuase she was early or becuase she was right?

no significant inflation?

seriously mail me what u r smoking!

i went to publix yesterday, where i used to shop a lot, but super TGT is a tad closer. went to publix to troll yesterday afternoon. i cud not freaking believe the cost of food, there.

10 bucks a lb for boars head turkey.

bought a frozen breast for 2 bucks a lb, but that used be a dollar.

i lb of chix tenders 7.99. that used to be 4 bucks.

i did get a gud deal on alaskan crab legs, 11.99 a lb.

mern said...

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending falls as prices surged by largest amount since 1981


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, fell in June as shoppers were hit with the biggest increase in prices in nearly three decades.
The Commerce Department reported Monday that consumer spending dipped by 0.2 percent in June, after removing the effects of higher prices, the poorest showing since a similar drop in February. The higher prices reflected a big surge in gasoline costs and helped to drive an inflation gauge tied to consumer spending up by 0.8 percent in June, the biggest increase since a 1 percent rise in February 1981.

The big rise in inflation ate up a part of the billions of dollars in stimulus payments delivered during the month. Personal incomes rose by a tiny 0.1 percent in June following a giant 1.8 percent increase in May.


how is that not stagger lee?

Spin-em said...

"i did get a gud deal on alaskan crab legs, 11.99 a lb."

You can thank Sig Hansen...Capatain of the Northwestern for that...he's workin for the common man..lool

mern said...

and since we had contraction in the 4th q, is there any doubt the first q will be revised into negative terrirtory?

thats two consecutive q's of negative GDP growth.

thats not a mid cycle slowdown, thats an official recession, with an official bear market, caused by a mortgage meltdown and skyrocketing inflation.

hopefully this is all priced in.

unfortunately i see cramer who was really bearish below 11k, is now really bullish.

rut oh

mern said...

sig hansen

lol!

maverick said...

Chrysler dealer friend says July worst month in 30 years....Carmax dealer friend in MD sold a total of 3 cars in July.......

These are quotes from tank members

Bunkerman said...

re Q1 ... IF it is revised negative, that will be a recession and I will have been wrong.

Spin-em said...

I thought pavi would be a better salesman than that.....

Frosty said...

cpt frost over the bar with a parodi in his choppers...yoakham blasting hillbilly rock...still the king of ling indeed.

Spin-em said...

lmaoooooo Parodi...Scranton's finest

Bunkerman said...

bought 5 lbs of filet mignon to BBQ over the weekend - cut 2" thick steaks.

Zero inflation in that - $9.99/lb. same price as last year.

But I had to do the work myself.

Bunkerman said...

Pest control (ant spray, etc) around the bunker costs the same as last year ... and the year before.

I suppose car (ex-gas) & housing costs are lower now, too.

That offsets a lot of gas & food.

maverick said...

try taking the dogs to a kennel or have a pet sitter. The tear in the canal will be severe.

mern said...

but no one needs a new house or a new car, and they cant afford em.

they do need to eat and use energy.

bman, thoughts on the BLS taking 7 months to acknowledge contraction in the 4th q?

dont u find that just pathetic?

Bunkerman said...

odd with all this "inflation" that I could buy the DVD set for the "World at War" for about 1/4 what I paid for the VHS tapes 20 years ago.

For DVDs in general, prices are about 1/2.

Oh, but that's not food or energy.

Bunkerman said...

BLS doesn't do GDP - BEA does.

But I thought the size of the revsiion was surprising and odd. Need an explanation.

Btw, the necessary revision to get Q1 GDP to negative is a good bit larger.

mern said...

ya most people r not loading up on dvds right now.

they dont go into your tank and make your car go.

there is no doubt and it has been this way for going on 5 yrs.

deflation for durable goods that are not needed.

skyrocketing inflation for stuff we need. food, fuel, healthcare, education, insurance, etc.

imo, once the olympics r over, the price of gas goes straight back up. as does oil

Spin-em said...

I dont think mern bought crab legs...who cooks crab legs for one???...now cold cuts...oh yeah..lol

mern said...

i bought one crab leg for 2 bucks and 7 cents.

that is pretty sad.

only rammed one chix last nite at publix, but then i saw her rock and apologized

LOL

Spin-em said...

LOOL...rammed...attaboy
......Fonzie playbook..just a matter of time

mfl59 said...

mern ABC sir...always be closing...supermarkets...church...the watering hole...the country club...its a numbers game...

Bunkerman said...

uh oh ... here's a real necessity - Quick Scrub III gun cleaning aerosol ... up 52% in 18 months.

Hmmm .. looks like a reformulation due to EPA regs ... guess the BLS will mark that to zero for a "quality" improvement

;-)))

Spin-em said...

on second thought..one crab leg??? nfw!!!..looool....that would be like barney coopersmiths suit in My blue heaven traggggic.....

mfl59 said...

Im convinced the comman man goes to costco for the free samples of food...sheesh....5 pm on s aturday place was packed to the gills with mooches galore

maverick said...

My Blue Heaven excellent flic spin

mern said...

that would be like barney coopersmiths suit in My blue heaven traggggic

ROFL

ya the dusted off the old fonzi playbook.

i am ABC, but as i work through preseason, i am noticing and forgot to A. be more a dick, and B. dont let them know i am ABC.

a is easy.

b have to work on

i really wish i was 2 inches taller, ie 5'10.

thats what she said!

mern said...

Boscov's files for Chapter 11
In papers filed today, Boscov's says it plans to close 10 unprofitable stores. The Reading-based chain of discount department stores has been struggling since two of the company's mainstays retired in 2006.


isnt boscov's the saks 5th avenue of the valley?

i know my really snobby cousin used to work there.

she married a brain surgeon and disappeared from the valley faster than a virgin on prom nite.

she doesnt keep in touch with any family or friends who remain in the valley.

snobby bitch indeed!

Spin-em said...

LOOOOL!!!!...lotta good stuff in there

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman why did choose FCX over BHP sir? thanks in advance...

Bunkerman said...

FCX is very shareholder friendly and open to being taken over. Copper is relativley rare in the earth's crust, hence major new mines less unlikely.

BHP wanted to takeover RTP and produces lots of iron and coal, which are rather common. Ditto aluminum. So over time, new productions, such as iron in Indai, will come on stream. Plus the China pushback recently.

I had to choose one, so FCX was it. I like BHP, though. The takeover possibility really made the decision for me, as well as FX being very shareholder friendly.

Bunkerman said...

FCX was cheaper PE, too, by a lot.

Wow, those are some big drops last two days.

Early as usual. Ugh ..

Hmmm ...

Bunkerman said...

maybe that hedge fund blowup story is true

whole lotta liquidating going on.

mfl59 said...

good stuff....thanks bunk....

rutgers-fresno state september 1...who needs tickets?

Spin-em said...

looooool

maverick said...

watch out for those under the radar baby blue tarheels second week mr hunt

Frosty said...

Bunky...is this commodity breakdown good or bad for the market...no place to hide indeed.

Frosty said...

were is my friend Buddybullybull...better take his belt and shoe laces...mern 2 skankeneaters, bud o...that's gotta hurt.

Spin-em said...

T Boone record that new commercial today?..sad as balls like he wrote the check this morning..lol

Spin-em said...

must be the merny heater cuz he's not exactly winin n dinin em....yes sir..one leg please.... Sig cant even geta buzz on at the Capt Nest bar with that sale...LOOL

maverick said...

Bud camped at Dimarco's door step ....wants the proper "grip"...easy new GOP convert....knock before entering

Bunkerman said...

I think it's beefer panic today.

No opinion re the market ... I suspect neutral overall.

Bunkerman said...

But I suppose we'll soon hear that "the market" is "predicting" another recession expanding to China this time.

Bunkerman said...

bot a bit more FCX

mfl59 said...

when will they reinstate the uptick rule for commodity stocks?

Frosty said...

FCX good support at 65...stuff smoked, japs to the shoe leather...thought it illegal for spiddy to trade under 1260.

Bunkerman said...

short beefers eating commodity beefers ... cannibalism

madness.

Bud said...

sheeesh

what a bunch of doom and gloomers on this site

america is on vacation.......people are havin fun.........beaches are packed

Bud said...

"how can you be so obtuse?"


what movie is that line from??

one of my all-time favs

Bud said...

maverick is the 'zeta' of this site

all these depression era type entries

Bud said...

ops expo is back !!!!

how was soccer camp ?? did the other schoolgirls kick you in the shins ??

Frosty said...

have half a yard that says Bud scores before mern does the skankeneater hat trick.

Bud said...

oil gettin smacked

good


the end of the credit crisis and crude at 100bux will be the key ingredients for a resurgant US economy in 2008


USA !! USA !! USA !! USA !!

mfl59 said...

does maverick drink $25 martinis when he goes out?

Bud said...

rutgers-fresno state?? bunch of faggots


broward county high school teams hit harder

Bunkerman said...

Bunkerman is an optimist ... very long indeed.

Bud said...

dimarco is my hero !

i love the claw........yhoo handicap index nosedive pattern

mfl59 said...

huh...."faggots"...those are fighting words there pal...

don't forget who turned you onto the claw...

Spin-em said...

The "Shank"...hope has no place in the joint or on this blog.....lol

Spin-em said...

the heater scores first.....he's been to the valley..besides..ya cant score if your skeerd to try..lool

Spin-em said...

wait

........that bet was with a woman right?....lol

Frosty said...

Spin..rope to center...can't get the heat past you...LMAOOOOOOOO