Thursday, March 5, 2009

Rome Wasn't Built in a Day

All the past studies of interest rates cuts and stimulus show that they take around nine months to have an effect. March 2009 minus nine months is June 2008. In June, 2008, the Fed was cutting rates, but not enough. And the wimpy Q2 2008 stimulus was still hitting consumer purses. And gasoline prices were sky high heading to $4/gallon.

So why does anyone thing the economy should already be showing signs of a turn ?

I suppose the shorter news cycles and hyperventilation on the financial press and other press leads the naive to expect quick results. Some efforts DID produce quick results. Hank the Tank and Battleship Ben's superlative work in October did prevent the banking system from collapse. Libor rates have fallen greatly and the risk of default by money market funds has receded. Commercial paper markets are looser and corporate bond markets are again seeing issuance.

But we must await the rest of the effects to hit in Q2 and Q3 of 2009. And Obama's stimulus will not hit hard until at least Q3.

I wait and think and pick my stocks. Over this year I will put all new cash to work in stocks as I am quite underweight there. Not by choice, but my substantial remaining fixed income investments are unfortunately locked in non-tradable investments. I've done all the easy re-balancing I can do and must do the rest with new money.

That's a reality of running a real fund, not a paper one. My Krypto Fund is mixture of several retirement accounts, taxable accounts and annuity-like investments (TIAA as Mrs. B was an academic). TIAA and its real estate fund cannot be withdrawn and used to re-balance. Neither can my old whole life policy.

Word of the Day

"Lubricious" - adjective [$10] from the card file
Lubricious means 1. smooth, oily, slipper; 2. lewd, prurient.
Sentence: I suppose it's no surprise that the many US congressmen and state legislators are lubricious in both senses of its meaning: they prey on young women or boys, grease their supporters with payoffs (aka earmarks) and are greased with bribes.

Le Mot du Jour

"Douleur" - noun, feminine.
Douleur means pain.
La Phrase: Pourquoi est-ce que la droite recommende d'habitude la douleur pour l'homme du commune pour réparer l'economie du pays?
Sentence: Why does the right usually recommend pain for the common man to repair the national economy?

60 comments:

Spin-em said...

no doubt the silence of a certain member shows he's is a lil embarrassed by his late post yesterday ...a "sorry" and a handshake goes a long way to become a member in good standing again.... is all Im sayin...

Spin-em said...

mern f-it..take the day off..we need some stories

mfl59 said...

T.O. cut by the Cowboys...rumor is he is going back to Philly....lmaooooooooooooo

mern said...

thats funny dr leo. i was gonna post this

hey TO, how does my azzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz taste?

with that said. since the eagles have totally screwed the pouch, in the last week.

ya, wtf, sign TO, to a 1 yr deal for a mil, add in another 12 min in incentives. ya know 1 mil, for no tirades on the side line for the yr. 5 mil for 12 tds or more. 3 mil for over 1200 yards receiving.

TO is steaming pissed and he wud love to kill dallas and get a ring. his best bet is philly.

will the "gold standard" go that route? maybe, they are retarded, re lurie, banner, and reid. all on snipe list!

isnt it in the contstition a pats fans cant own the iggles? god i hate lurie! i really do!

ward to the bucs, well played sir.

cant wait till baseball starts and the mets shit the AGAIN!!!!!!!!

and i had my dow 7k cap, ready to rock this am.

man is this ugly

Spin-em said...

Plax makin license plates for 3 years....ELI to T------------O

mfl59 said...

one up day and every yokel on tv and the internet is calling a bottom....how can they all possibly be right? just saying....

mfl59 said...

CAF....

"thanks jim"

freaking mush

Spin-em said...

hates the eagles and cowboys now...Tommy Coughlin and the boyz will put manners on him inhouse..like we do with buddeee

mfl59 said...

this is dedicated to the lover of rat rings:

Roses are red
Violets are blue
I'm a schizophrenic
And so am I

Name the movie for a sixer of rocks....

Spin-em said...

Lake winnapisacki(*sp)lol

Bunkerman said...

Hmm no onwe got yesterday's quiz.

Answer: Movie - Hud, actor , Paul Newman.

A great line (of many) in a great movie.

Bunkerman said...

btw, another mall was full yesterday, too, at 2PM. Lots of traffic, too.

Frosty said...

full mall...shoplifters no doubt...urban wolfs begin to travel in packs...put the k-bar on the stone sir.

mern said...

Dr. Leo Marvin: This is black powder, Bob. One teaspoon of this stuff can blow up a tree stump. There we go!
Bob Wiley: And, how much is this?
Dr. Leo Marvin: Twenty pounds worth.


death therapy, its a guaranteed cure!

mern said...

Bob Wiley: [riding in Leo's car, speaking as Leo drives] It was an interesting morning, fruitful. But it lacked the intensity that you and I generate together, the sparks that we get one-on-one. We just gotta figure out a way to work around your schedule. Could we work afternoons? Two to four? Three to five? Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday?
Dr. Leo Marvin: AHHHHHH!
[slams the brakes, gets out of the car, walks around, and opens Bob's door]
Bob Wiley: Are you saying you'd rather work mornings?
Dr. Leo Marvin: [nearly incomprehensible] GET OUTTA THE CAR!


i always wondered what he was saying there. that is the funniest part of the movie!

Frosty said...

mern...how active is the KKK in your area...can you still go out in public with the darkmeat...hearing the south is ready to rise again.

mfl59 said...

Harry Clark thinks GE is going to $35...

of course this dickhead was buying it at 35, 30, 20, 15, 10....totally misleading the public...what a sham....

Spin-em said...

informed source saying carter worthless ..bottom in GE call this morning

Spin-em said...

mfl..was your trivia an acrostic??

mfl59 said...

I do not believe so sir...

Bunkerman what have you been buying at the mall? I hear one can get one's ear pierced at the mall..

mfl59 said...

come back Bud....I want to start mocking ARod....I need you...

Spin-em said...

one things for sure..buds no Mike Gundy

Bunkerman said...

Well, my friendly liquor store is near a big upsacle mall - I just looked across the street at the lot & traffic. I bought lots of fine wines and Bunktini ingredients and a few bottles of very good rum ["Pusser's Rum", dark].

And Trader Joe's is in a little mall - mall lot was packed. Bought nuts & dried fruits for survival in the coming armagheddon ;)

mfl59 said...

ARod out until May....

pffttt....


I guess Yankees will be in first place until he comes back....

Bud said...

PSA short


'thanks jim'



what's that ace???? huh?? nuthin??.....yeah...i didn't think so

Bud said...

A-fraud out


well well well.........what a bitch pussy......can't take the heat


PS..........what a disgrace that spin cheers for this fag

Bud said...

mike gundy

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO



PS.......listen you bitches......was busy in the tank....cha-ching

Spin-em said...

SMOKEDOUT!!!!!!!!!....what couldnt hold your breath any longer queeeeeeerr?????




LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

mfl59 said...

atta boy Budddeeeeee.....

welcome back...

Spin-em said...

"sorry" bud..handshake

Spin-em said...

BIIB...."thanks bob"..youre on fire today pal

Bud said...

BIIB .......gimme a f'ng break !!


another retroactive post......or private email.....or was it in a love letter from bob ???


'huge put action'

Spin-em said...

look it you hooooooooooooommmooo...he sent it to the team before hours.....



aaaah geez.."sorry bud"..handshake

Spin-em said...

just made big Al a promise not to use those hate words again...no need to stoop to his level...thanks for setting me straight Al.....handshake

mfl59 said...

Pisani makes so much sense...the market is so easy for him...ahhh to have the abilities he does...what a gift sir...

mfl59 said...

"the maestro"

mfl59 said...

I like this guy DeFazio...he has a lot of fire in his belly...

mfl59 said...

Where is David Tice?

Bud said...

that's the point you douche!!!!............if he gave it to the team......why don't you thank him over the team wires

spare us the f'ng bullshit


tete de noeud indeed

Spin-em said...

PSA short


'thanks jim'


what a dope you are ......lmaooooooooo

Frosty said...

DeFazio...oh indeed...I plan to market a Defazio bobble head...who's in...Bunky, great skim potential....certain Liz would snap up the first run via ebay $200 a pop.

Uh Bud, BIIB chart sent to last night.

Bud said...

i know bob.........thank you very much by the way


but that was a private email.......i can thank you privately


but we got alot of brown nosing ass-kissers here




PS.......great job today joe torre jr....cha-ching

mfl59 said...

good thing I paid for my Baltusrol membership yesterday...

"thanks dougie"


what a call!!!

Spin-em said...

PSA short


'thanks jim'

still doesnt get it..lmaooo

who put that first? DoucheBudalow

ever hear of corbomite?? look it up while drinkin a tranya

Bud said...

hmmmmmm.....i still don't get it


corbomite ?? what's that......you know Bman?

Spin-em said...

private email "jim" schmuck..loool

Bud said...

oh wait...........i got it .....i think


i believe ace is to blame........i didn't say a word til he posted


ok......listen...........i'd love to chat...........but joe torre jr has been on fire in the closing hour

mfl59 said...

"i believe ace is to blame"

"joe torre jr has been on fire in the closing hour"


I'm not sure which one is a bigger lie...

Frosty said...

Mrs B...where is Bunky...please check the barn...sucking on gold mist's tail pipe...I hope not.

Bunkerman said...

I believe corbamite is the advanced mineral that Hans Solo was frozen in by Darth Vader.

Bunkerman said...

Bunky was napping, and then doing an oral French lesson.

The speaking+listening kind of "oral"

;)

Bunkerman said...

Also salivating and anxious for new skim to start buying.

Frosty said...

"oral French lesson"...LAMOOO...sure, we know what you were doing...atta boy, nutten like a lil afternoon grudge.

mfl59 said...

"salivating to buy"

you are a great American Bunkerman....

mfl59 said...

Bud who has a better golf swing...you or Charles Barkley?

Spin-em said...

loooooooooooooooooool

patrick even chortled at that one

mfl59 said...

"Someone throw the towel...throw the goddamned towel!"

Apollo Creed's trainer during his fight with Drago

Spin-em said...

Corbomite is an imaginary substance invented by Captain James T. Kirk as a bluff against attack. Describing it as "a material, and a device, which prevents attack on us", Kirk used the corbomite bluff on at least two occasions.

In 2266, the USS Enterprise was captured by a vessel of the First Federation, Balok's massive Fesarius. Threatened with imminent destruction, Kirk seized upon the chance comments of Dr. McCoy and Spock for inspiration. On-the-fly, he "explained" the nature of corbomite to his opponent: that it reacts to any destructive energy that touches a Federation vessel, creating a reverse reaction that destroys the attacker. He went on to advise Balok that since the introduction of corbomite more than two centuries ago, no attacking vessel had survived the attempt. The bluff was successful, ultimately revealing Balok's power and belligerence were similar exaggerations

Bunkerman said...

ooops, mistook for "carbonite"

Spin-em said...

looooool bunk