Thursday, May 14, 2009

Shopping Trip

The double voodoo spell I cast last week is working, producing a reasonable pullback from the extended stock prices of last week. The S&P 500 has a broad base of support in the 850-870 area so buyers on the sidelines might step up their IF news does not turn to the worse. If one glosses over the Obama V move down & up in a few weeks around March 1, the market is really in a huge, long term base since last fall. Small stocks & banks have led. Why ?

That's easy. Those companies were being priced for BK. We now now most of those BKs will not occur as the junk bond market is open again. Companies with cash flow can refinance.

Bears are being bolder now, making strident calls for more doom. Some of these calls are quite stupid. Roubini writes that the Chinese yuan will become a "reserve" currency sooner than expected. I guess he doesn't read this blog. I destroyed that prospect a couple weeks ago in my series on "World Reserve Currency".

I will spend some time today going over charts and news on my Obama Fund stocks. I plan to slowly add to some of those positions to raise the fund's leverage back to 150% long. My thinking is that by mid-summer, the recession will be obviously ending and investors will start pricing in much better 2010 earnings prospects. I might cull some non-performers, too.

No rush, though. This pullback might run a few more days. Option expiration is Friday and the traders like to play games then.

Word of the Day

"Salubrious" - adjective [$10]
Salubrious means favorable to or promoting health or well-being.
Sentence: Like a couple glasses of red wine for the adult physiology, intermittent modest pullbacks are quite salubrious for a bull market. And again similarly, both excessive wine consumption and large pullbacks are bad.

Le Mot du Jour

"Voilà" - an exclamation; and its complement, "Voici"
Voilà means this/that/those/there/here is/are. Voici means expressly this/these/here is/are. As you can see, one uses voici when one expressly wants to indicate something nearby or close in some way. Voilà can be used for both if no distinction is needed.
La Phrase: Voilà le repli des valeurs que j'attendais.
Sentence: This is the pullback of stock prices that I was waiting for.

66 comments:

maverick said...

Bman...how does the recession end this summer when states like CA have a 51% drop in April sales tax revenues over April 09? What will happen to make this turn in a few months?

maverick said...

oops ...over April 08

Bud said...

i read that roubini piece.........hilarious......and nonsense

Bud said...

we haven't heard much about the uptick rule lately...........this market better stop goin down........else the cry-babies will start whining again

Spin-em said...

companies cashin out..they must think its the top...so why are we buyin?...A wise man once said.."one of these days buying the bad news is going to sound silly"...lol

May 13, 2009 4:07 PM


Bunkerman said...
hmmm companies track record is like wrong way Corrigan.

They bought stock at high prices and are now issuing.

Which time were / are they right ?


different times......you said they bought stock so insiders could sell...made sense.....today they're doing it to survive...if they thought they could get $10 more ..they would hold they line wouldnt they?....a company that issues 25% doesnt bother you?

t2108 88..your a longterm holder...why would you even consider adding at an overbought condition?

Spin-em said...

sorry t2108 80

Bud said...

where are you right now Bman ? less than 100% long.......you sold alot this week ?


long term long only investing indeed

Bud said...

i hope president moon-cricket is closely studying CA

an example of an over-taxed over-regulated state........it's a welfare state........millions of darkies sucking the bloated state budget


a failed state......CA or USA ?? or both ??

Bunkerman said...

The panic cutbacks have stopped, people spend a bit fro deferred demand and the drop ends. That's an end to the recession, meaning things stop getting worse.

mfl59 said...

are people on cnbc retarded?

jobless claims fell off a cliff in the last 6 months...if that rate of change continued at a similar pace the world would have ended by now....so now a small retreat in jobless claims is a "green chute"?

dead cat indeed....

the man on the street is hurting badly....and its not improving.....

Bunkerman said...

The roads in retail areas seem crowded here. I suppose a bear could say everyone is out looking for a job ...

The Chinese/Japanese place I buy sushi at twice a week had quite a few tables full on Monday. That was a big change from a few months ago.

Bud said...

there is nuthin 'salubrious' about yesterday's pullback...........it emboldens the bears ......and then the stampede of panic-selling resumes

mfl59 said...

Bud your boy Jim Iorio is another moron....

what's in a name?

Bunkerman said...

companies selling lots of stock need to get some equity to pay off loans and assure lenders they can refi.

Why is that bad ?

Bunkerman said...

I am about 105% in both Obama and Fido.

I want to go back to 150% slowly.

Bud said...

uhhhh ace ..........are you bearish sir ???

Bunkerman said...

I always said I'd trade Obama stocks a bit. That's how I'll try to get 5-10x instead of 2-3x

mfl59 said...

lmaooooo Bud...

just a ping pong player in your mold sir....

Bunkerman said...

There's huge stimulus in the pipeline: gov't spending, refi, low rates, etc. That will help lots of people start spending a bit again.

Bud said...

i hardly watch any cnbc anymore.....i switch at 830 and watch til cashin leaves........and i try to watch david faber around 910.........and if i get alerted to a special interview........that's it


every cnbc anchor tries to be a comedian.....they suck....they aren't funny........they have even ruined a great reporter like rick santelli.......since the tea-party they just want him to be loud and political


bloomberg is an excellent channel.........that is if you want business and stock news

maverick said...

Bman...a few months ago you had 10 feet of snow..spring gets people moving.....let's see if that continues

Bunkerman said...

true, mav. it was a bad winter here.

Spin-em said...

companies selling lots of stock need to get some equity to pay off loans and assure lenders they can refi.

Why is that bad ?

ur a kid that has 2 jelly beans..but the bully(the bank) down the streetwants one....you pay him off..nothing has changed..he's still a bully..yet you're left scratchin ur balls cuz you only have 1 jelly bean left.......

Bunkerman said...

I don't watch CNBC much at all. I watched this AM running on the elliptical and kept say, "how worthless" to myself.

Bunkerman said...

I shuold have run to Tommy Dorsey, or the Airborne cadence tapes.

Bunkerman said...

ur a kid that has 2 jelly beans..but the bully(the bank) down the streetwants one....you pay him off..nothing has changed..he's still a bully..yet you're left scratchin ur balls cuz you only have 1 jelly bean left.......


uh ... isn't he paid off ? OR the equity sale was part of the re-fi deal.

the kid is better off ... not being beaten to a pulp.

Spin-em said...

MGM owes 14 billion has 276 shares outstanding..issues 81 million t raise 1.5.....they still owe 12.5..is that better?

Spin-em said...

a lil tip......hes still gunna get beaten to a pulp...lol

Spin-em said...

MGM upped it to 143 million...hey thanks

Spin-em said...

we just gave away half the company..."thats ok ma..I dont mind"

Bunkerman said...

uh I'm not saying buy thsoe companies ... I stay away from them.

But it's not bearish to the rest.

MGM - itsn't taht Kerkorian ?

ONe would be nuts to be a minority shareholder to him.

mfl59 said...

So we may assume you are no longer a shareholder in DRYS?

Bunkerman said...

yes, I sold that long ago in solid double digits on a big bounce - broke even.

I posted it at the time.

Bunkerman said...

my shippers are EXM and GNK; and UNP rail in Fido.

And CLDN a trucker.

mfl59 said...

well done sir...

you still have your trading chops....

perhaps a trip back into the tank is in order

mern said...

as someone looking nationwide for a job and networking with people around the country let me explain what its like for 90% of the people who lost their jobs in the last yr.

NO ONE IS HIRING!!!!!!!!

and every month another 500 grand lose their jobs.

me im lucky. im bidding on short sales for coin laundermats (around USF), dry cleaners, maybe a small landscaper. just as long as the economy doesnt enter any real long period of depressflation (santelli seems to be in that camp, fwiw. i know he is an idiot.......), this stupid business's r simple but the cash flow is more than enough.

after having my home on the market for 6 months and not 1 bid and 2 price reductions, i guess im done moving to costa rica.

this is gettting so bad, that the right might really have a chance in 2012, even with paledog.

i wonder how far behind the curve florida is to cali? it shud be a lot better becuase of the demographics here. a lot of old retired people, certainly more than the wet backs.

im bummed bill seidman passed. he was a straight shooter. they dont make many like that.

"reccesion is over"

this recession isnt close to over!

BANK ON IT!

oh my old dog shop that i sold for 170 grand is going for sale to 35 grand (20 of which is owed to me). maybe i can buy that back...............

Bunkerman said...

uh mfl ... to restate a famous quote, "I'd rather have two teeth pulled that go through that again"

Spin-em said...

coin laundermat that nuts... and digusting and if youre like Mantis with a wrench?...forgetabout it..lool...now .. a driving range with golf ball dispensing token machine.....no employees....mern-taaaastic...lool..

mfl59 said...

how about a car wash? get a couple rag men....let the machines do the work...

what say you spin?

mfl59 said...

mern be patient...housing has obviously hit a bottom...its just a matter of time...

Spin-em said...

LMAOO NFW.....changers zapped by scum bags last week 2k to fix....Im tellin ya...people suck... cowards...were gunna get em cuz dumb fucks always come back and there will be no cops...ya know what im sayin?

mfl59 said...

lmaoooooo

just like Sonny in a Bronx Tale...

"Now yous can't leave"

Frosty said...

Bunky...what did you see in the charts...anything different than I noted yesterday, I would think so...I will grade your work on a curve and include aazzhead in the sample, gauratees you at least a C.

Spin-em said...

looool...nutten like that...catch a guy..they arrest him .they send him to jail.....you stil have banged up stuff of $$$ gone.....we would want everything as it was...taking notes merny??..lol

Bunkerman said...

I saw that I'd like more dip to S&P 850-870 are and a few more days to ge the weak hands (i. e. st traders) less long. Not barging in today.

Bunkerman said...

I don't look at the QQQQ at all; it's just for traders & beefers.

Bunkerman said...

in waver theory, we have wave A of pullback. TOday is part of B.

I await C - second phase of this pullback.

Bunkerman said...

also, many individual Obama charts look good; I might have a hard time picking the adds from so many.

Bunkerman said...

btw, I'll be in Ohio next week, so am doubly hesitant about getting too long.

Frosty said...

Ok Bunky...spiddy I'm thinking a test of Nov 08' lows where real buyers get to work, so something greater than your 32%, 845...this market for whatever reason has fallen in luv with hs patterns...forming one here, a measused move takes us back to those nov 08 lows then I can see a large inverted hs that takes us to spiddy 1200.

This would fit well with the $vix envrionment we find ourselves in 30-50 channel...over 1200 would crush the vix back to historical ranges and the new bull is born.

I can could go on, but I think you get the idea...a lil longer view than yours I think, believe it fits well with your longer term fundy thesis.

Frosty said...

845 though, we would find some great trade around the core opportunities, don't get me wrong there.

Bunkerman said...

there are no real buyers, just ST and LT traders.

little pattern ping pongers and BIG swinging ... LT types.

;)

Mrs. B getting interested... would probably do real LT buying on next more down. Has cash, will spend on good prices.

Frosty said...

Bunky you sold out all your tech, correct?...you start hunting there...balance grasshooper :)

mfl59 said...

is "jim" a beefer Bunkerman?

Bunkerman said...

I doubt if "Jim" manages enough money to be a beefer.

$100 million lower limit cut-off.

Bunkerman said...

I have some GOOG, frosty.

I don't see muhc tech in Obama.

Fido out of AAPL, letting Mrs. B run that one LT to 500.

mfl59 said...

Bunk why you heading out to Ohio? going to the annual sadie hawkins dance at the country club?

Bunkerman said...

haha, I'm going to visit Mom.

Frosty said...

Bunky...barry luv's his crackberry (RIMM)...gonnna be like air jordans once were in the gehtto, monkey see monkey do...fits well with the secret reperations plan, I mean wealth redistribution plan ...great addtion to obama fund.

Bunkerman said...

interesting idea

no debt, reasonable growth PE.

I'll watch it.

Thanks.

Going to pick up teh Merc SUV.

mern said...

monkey see monkey do

Rush, give u that one, Bob?

still pretty funny

mern said...

anyone notice a side effect from HGH is large ears?

arod has big ones.

barry has the biggest and rather slender, no?

thats his secret imo. he's juicing.

mern said...

As for the dollar, “we’re going to have a currency crisis probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” Rogers says.


“It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally. …

The U.S. dollar is a very flawed currency.”


Bonds also are overvalued, he says.


And where does Rogers see investment opportunities? Commodities, as he has argued for months.


“The only place I know where the fundamentals are getting better is raw materials,” he explains.


“We’re going to have serious food shortages. … Prices are going to go through the roof.”


Whether the economy rebounds or not, “commodities are going to lead it,” Rogers says.

Frosty said...

rogers...MLF59's boy gartman thinks he is a fag.

Spin-em said...

nutten....dont shoot the laundromat messenger...im saving you an azzload of $$ and heartache..pfftttt

URRRRRRRRR WELLLLLLL-COME

Spin-em said...

'MERN'S SELF SERVE GOLF-A-RAMA"

free clubs to dark meat