Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Expand Your Horizons

This applies to literature, culture, history, languages and ... investing. Today's FT makes a point rather simply - US-centric pundits and investors pay attention.

***Beginning of Quote***
Emerging stock markets have reached levels last seen before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the latest sign of investor expectations of improving global growth. The FTSE All-World Emerging Index on Monday reached 433.2 in late London trade – the highest since the week before Lehman’s demise sent markets into a tailspin.

Then, the index dropped almost 48 per cent in a little over five weeks but, from an October 27 low, has now rallied 90.1 per cent. Strategists said the rally was because of a returning belief in "decoupling" – the theory by which emerging markets will in future be less dependent on the fortunes of developed markets because they will be able to rely on stronger domestic demand.
Michael Wang, emerging markets strategist at Morgan Stanley, said: “Previously, emerging markets were seen as a geared play on developed markets because of their dependence on exports. But this is different.

Asia and Latin America haven’t had the fundamental problems in the banking sector that the developed world has had, so lending and credit growth has resumed rapidly and this is helping drive growth.”

...

Manufacturing output, a particular concern for the emerging world, reached an 18-month high and new orders hit a 20-month peak."
***End of Quote***

A couple years ago I wrote sardonically about the emerging new "East Asia Co-Prosperity Zone" - a zone of self-supporting consumer driven demand in China, India, and the rest of East Asia. It's really larger than this, including all South America, too. When looking for the recovery and where future growth will be, I think it will be there.

In the money-mouth department, Krypto Fund has a quite oversized position in emerging market stocks at 6.67% allocation.

Actions

I took some profits on extra pieces of FCX and HBC yesterday. The FCX was the bit added around 55. I got a little over 64 for it, thus making up the 10 points lost on the other half when I made the Obama dump in early July. I also sold about 1/3 of HBC in Fido Fund - that position had gotten too large. HBC reported surprisingly strong earnings and I took advantage of the rip. My average gain was 75% on that stock.

Word of the Day

"Espantoon" - noun [$???] a Mencken word not in any dictionaries
Espantoon was the term used in Baltimore in early 1900s for a policeman's stick - a nightstick with a long leather strap for twirling. The word perhaps derives from Spanish, "espanto", a noun for fright or threat.
Sentence: Timmy yesterday used the verbal espantoon to try to get the financial regulatory heads to back financial reform and to stop their turf battles.

Multi-lingual Department

I overslept, so nothing today here.

39 comments:

Bud said...

what are you sayin Bman ??


it's different this time ?

Bud said...

'decoupling' is a great theory for classrooms

but the consumers in india and china will not pay 300bux for the callaway diablo driver i bought...........they just don't have the dollars..........wages are miniscule compared to the US

it prolly cost callaway 20bux to make it in china and the most they can get in india may be 25bux


oh wait............they make it up on volume

Bunkerman said...

Decoupling is not perfect now but it's a strong trend and the "coupling" is getting weaker and weaker.

The reast of Asia and South America is buying cheap tools, etc. from China and India adn thsoe places are buying stuff from sourtheast Asia, South American, etc. That trend is growing.

Bunkerman said...

Since those areas are not command economies, their consumer demand is growing.

There are lots of people there who whant better lives and to buy thing to get it.

Bunkerman said...

I'm saying that in the next bull market, I think this trend will continue to increase.

Bud said...

10 points on FCX......75% on HBC...........great job Bman..........love to hear stories of traders doin well


of course lowlife dirtbag scumbag frosty doesn't......he loves to make fun of others losing trades ( ace too )......and remind them over and over and over........apparently he only has winning trades..........f'ng douchebag



PS......still wanna be friends ???

mfl59 said...

go fkk your hand son....the only people i mock for losing money are the true low life scumbags that you seem to idolize....the leaches and thieves in "la acquairum"

they bitch about GS frontrunning and flash orders...what your hero does is the same thing...he is a disgrace...

Spin-em said...

ouch.....mfl with an early arm bar

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MVP

Bud said...

WNC


nailed it !!! high five !!!


holy smokes !! are you f'ng kiddin me ???? 1.27 to 2 in a day !!!!!!!


looks like i'll be able to afford an extra topping on my pizza for lunch........may even get a soda......i got the cash today



danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman that was a fine call on the move in reits sir...or should I give kudos to Krypto?

Bunkerman said...

give Krypto the dog biscuit .. good doggie.

Frosty said...

"extra topping on my pizza for lunch."...what do you add to a perfect Ojree — Pakistani curry goat tripe pizzzzzaaaa....why mess with perfection.

Bud said...

well they gonna ban flash trading


congratulations Bman ............you well on your way to making our markets illiquid and inefficient

Bud said...

Bman are you also against the GLD and SLV ??


or does the common man have to buy gold bars if he wants to own gold...........and dig them in his back yard .........what if he doesn't have a back yard ?

Bud said...

Bman is futures trading an asset class ??

Frosty said...

what a jerk...is this that the other an assest class...over and over again...taunting bunky with such bs...what a sick lil subhuman, you disgust me.

Bud said...

lmaoooooooooooo bob

Bunkerman said...

sheesh, Bud ... I've said many times that GLD and SLV are about the only type of commodity ETF that is proper.

Bunkerman said...

futures trading is NOT an asset class - futures are NOT an asset. Ditto derivatives, etc.

Bunkerman said...

btw, "dark pools" should also be banned.

Hell, I think they should force every single order through the same system so every order is exposed equally to all.

Bunkerman said...

providing ways for the Street & beefers to extract more vig is not a priority for me.

If it helps the common man - yes.

Otherwise, no nein nyet non nie in any language.

mfl59 said...

Bunkerman is the sharkfolio an asset class?

Bunkerman said...

lolol, as before, it's not; but it's run by an ass.

:)))

Bunkerman said...

haha, good puff ball, mfl ... down the middle... and over the center field wall.

such an easy target.

mfl59 said...

indeed Bunkerman...that was a batting practice ball....go fetch it Bud

Frosty said...

Bunky when do you and fat al hit the boundary waters to fight pike.

Bunkerman said...

We hit the waters in Algonquin National Park in Canada on August 23.

I leave here on Aug. 22 to meet the group in Buffalo, then next day to hit the park.

My pemmican was superb - surely it will win the prize.

Bud said...

Bman is UTA an asset class ???


i think so.........stock of the week............what a monster

Bunkerman said...

what the f is UTA ?

Bud said...

ummm UTA............chinese travel agency

part of your decoupling thesis Bman..........chinese middle class has some cash now.........they wanna travel

Bunkerman said...

I googled UTA.

Univ of Texas at Arlingtin
Utah Transit Authoritu
United Talent Agency
UNION TANK (UTA) der Tank- und Servicekartenspezialist bietet wertvolle Informationen zu seinen Serviceleistungen und der neuen LKW-Maut

Uta, daughter of Theodo, ruler of Bavaria in the 8th century. ... Uta, Margravess of Meissen, a mediaeval aristocrat, patron of the ...

???

Bunkerman said...

true, could be a good stock. Maybe a 100 bagger for long term ... if you could hold it a couple years

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Bud said...

uhhh Bman.............i don't need the stock to move 100 points for me to make 100 points in it........a well defined range is all i need


remember......i am just a ping pong player

Spin-em said...

....and a jerk

mfl59 said...

....and half a fag

Bud said...

UTA

what a monster close..............stock of the week ?? no..........stock of the century



DANKE VIELMALS JIM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Frosty said...

anyone know where I can borrow a few french ticklers for vacation.

Spin-em said...

Quebec

Bunkerman said...

hmmm I wonder how one says that in French ... maybe for tomorrow.