No post today, nor Word of the Day. I am consolidating some prior writings into a pamphlet I intend to publish in September.
Krypto found some weak signals, but for now, I will wait.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Monday, August 29, 2011
Words
"Hamartia" - noun [$10]
Hamartia means the fatal flaw leading to the destruction of the tragic hero or heroine.
Sentence: What is the hamartia of Hamlet? I argue a general greed created a lack of focus permitting multiple conflicting objectives: revenge against his father's murderer, desire to bring his mother down, and desire for the throne. The lack of focus caused him to dither and delay, make blunders, and miss opportunities. Unable to focus on a single objective, he completely bollixed up the entire effort.
Hamartia means the fatal flaw leading to the destruction of the tragic hero or heroine.
Sentence: What is the hamartia of Hamlet? I argue a general greed created a lack of focus permitting multiple conflicting objectives: revenge against his father's murderer, desire to bring his mother down, and desire for the throne. The lack of focus caused him to dither and delay, make blunders, and miss opportunities. Unable to focus on a single objective, he completely bollixed up the entire effort.
Friday, August 26, 2011
No QE3
As there was NOT an ocean liner named Queen Elizabeth III, so there should not be a Quantitative Easing III.
Why?
There is no need for it. The economy now has all the monetary base it needs to grow and interest rates (short and long term) are low enough. Low interest rates are not preventing any profitable investments.
What Needs to Be Done?
The problems are now all policy. Loan growth is low because there are massive new, tighter restrictions on getting a loan. Mortgage refinancings are far below what should be occurring because good quality borrowers are prevent from obtaining a new loan, by either over restrictive credit policies or by their existing loan being "underwater". FDIC rules for management of banks causes real loans to be examined much harder than speculations in securities.
In sum, the problems are ALL now policy problems under the purview of Obama. And he is doing nothing ... need I refer to the old fable about Nero fiddling while Rome burns?
Partial Solutions.
1. FNMA and Freddie Mac should lower credit standards to permit refinancings of ANY loan currently not in default. I mean ANY loan, regardless of credit score or low-to-value ratio. After all, the government ALREADY has that risk, and the loan gets better IF the debt service payments fall.
2. Force banks to make real loans and not speculate in securities. The banking system does NOT exist to faciliate the speculation in securities or derivatives or any similar thing. It exists to make LOANS: old-fashioned commercial and industrial LOANS.
All this is rather obvious. One wonders why these have not been done. After all, it's 2011, not 2009. Policymakers have had two years to "study" the problems. They have failed. Maybe those people should have their pay and benefits cut for "failure to achieve objectives".
Word of the Day
"Fugacious" - adjective [$10] literary
Fugacious means fleeting, evanescent, hard to capture or keep.
Sentence: Fat fees and fugacious fame of hedge fund managers is a fraud on the foolish rich. Example: John Pauson's flagship fund is down 38% this year. So much for his "genius". He and most of those knaves just roll the dice with OPM, get lucky one year and the next year loses. Sigh ...
Why?
There is no need for it. The economy now has all the monetary base it needs to grow and interest rates (short and long term) are low enough. Low interest rates are not preventing any profitable investments.
What Needs to Be Done?
The problems are now all policy. Loan growth is low because there are massive new, tighter restrictions on getting a loan. Mortgage refinancings are far below what should be occurring because good quality borrowers are prevent from obtaining a new loan, by either over restrictive credit policies or by their existing loan being "underwater". FDIC rules for management of banks causes real loans to be examined much harder than speculations in securities.
In sum, the problems are ALL now policy problems under the purview of Obama. And he is doing nothing ... need I refer to the old fable about Nero fiddling while Rome burns?
Partial Solutions.
1. FNMA and Freddie Mac should lower credit standards to permit refinancings of ANY loan currently not in default. I mean ANY loan, regardless of credit score or low-to-value ratio. After all, the government ALREADY has that risk, and the loan gets better IF the debt service payments fall.
2. Force banks to make real loans and not speculate in securities. The banking system does NOT exist to faciliate the speculation in securities or derivatives or any similar thing. It exists to make LOANS: old-fashioned commercial and industrial LOANS.
All this is rather obvious. One wonders why these have not been done. After all, it's 2011, not 2009. Policymakers have had two years to "study" the problems. They have failed. Maybe those people should have their pay and benefits cut for "failure to achieve objectives".
Word of the Day
"Fugacious" - adjective [$10] literary
Fugacious means fleeting, evanescent, hard to capture or keep.
Sentence: Fat fees and fugacious fame of hedge fund managers is a fraud on the foolish rich. Example: John Pauson's flagship fund is down 38% this year. So much for his "genius". He and most of those knaves just roll the dice with OPM, get lucky one year and the next year loses. Sigh ...
Thursday, August 25, 2011
A Word for Thursday
Word of the Day
"Exanimate" - adjective [$10]
Exanimate means 1. lacking animation; 2. lifeless or appearing lifeless.
Sentence: The squandering of the economic stimulus of 2009 caused the US growth rebound to be stillborn, and hence our current exanimate economic growth. All thanks to our P-O-R leaders in the Dark City.
[NB: P-O-R = Pelosi-Obama-Ried]
"Exanimate" - adjective [$10]
Exanimate means 1. lacking animation; 2. lifeless or appearing lifeless.
Sentence: The squandering of the economic stimulus of 2009 caused the US growth rebound to be stillborn, and hence our current exanimate economic growth. All thanks to our P-O-R leaders in the Dark City.
[NB: P-O-R = Pelosi-Obama-Ried]
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
An Epicurean Delight
Grand Jean displayed his Epicurean skills in the wilderness last week at a campsite deemed "Slippery Rock" camp. Boreas, the North Wind, had forced us to ground early after the last crossing of Le Grand Portage, and Boreas continued to blow all afternoon. Grand Jean reached into one of his two giant LRP packs to pull out the ingredients for making a fine sandwich for himself and Big Al.
I noticed the smell and ambled over. Drool began to drip from my mouth as the smell of fried Spam wafted over me. Grand Jean was making a few grilled Spam and cheese sandwiches ... with real butter. OMG, what a masterpiece!!!
Big Al offered me a small quarter sandwich to taste, and the taste exceeded my already lofty expectations. The sandwich bread was finely grilled with real butter; two slices of Kraft American singles bracketed a Spam single slice [these are available in supermarkets in my hometown in Ohio.] I ate it slowly, savoring its exquisite flavor ... a 10! This will go onto my lunchtime menu back at the bunker.
Grilled Spam and Cheese
Two slices of good bread
Butter
One slice of Spam
Two slices of American cheese [or Velveeta cheese]
Fry the spam until a bit crispy. Put a slice of cheese onto the bottom slice of bread, add the Spam slice and top with the second slice of cheese. Spread a bit of butter onto the bread on both sides of the sandwich and put into the skillet. When one side is browned, flip over and brown the other side. When it's brown, you are done. Eat and relish its wonderful flavor.
Word of the Day
"Enervate" - verb, transitive [$10]
Enervate means 1. to lessen the vitality or strength of; 2. to reduce the mental or moral vigor. Enervate is a rough antonym of energize.
Sentence: Wind enervates canoeists: it saps the canoe's forward momentum and blows the canoe off course. Wind is the canoeists' bane.
I noticed the smell and ambled over. Drool began to drip from my mouth as the smell of fried Spam wafted over me. Grand Jean was making a few grilled Spam and cheese sandwiches ... with real butter. OMG, what a masterpiece!!!
Big Al offered me a small quarter sandwich to taste, and the taste exceeded my already lofty expectations. The sandwich bread was finely grilled with real butter; two slices of Kraft American singles bracketed a Spam single slice [these are available in supermarkets in my hometown in Ohio.] I ate it slowly, savoring its exquisite flavor ... a 10! This will go onto my lunchtime menu back at the bunker.
Grilled Spam and Cheese
Two slices of good bread
Butter
One slice of Spam
Two slices of American cheese [or Velveeta cheese]
Fry the spam until a bit crispy. Put a slice of cheese onto the bottom slice of bread, add the Spam slice and top with the second slice of cheese. Spread a bit of butter onto the bread on both sides of the sandwich and put into the skillet. When one side is browned, flip over and brown the other side. When it's brown, you are done. Eat and relish its wonderful flavor.
Word of the Day
"Enervate" - verb, transitive [$10]
Enervate means 1. to lessen the vitality or strength of; 2. to reduce the mental or moral vigor. Enervate is a rough antonym of energize.
Sentence: Wind enervates canoeists: it saps the canoe's forward momentum and blows the canoe off course. Wind is the canoeists' bane.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Bashing Buffet
Warren Buffet must be either a fool or a knave. Or maybe he's just ready for the dog track.
While I was in the Canadian wilderness, Warren Buffet said the rich should pay more taxes. No doubt some rich should pay more, particularly the hedge fund and private equity fund managers ... and Warren Buffet himself.
Buffet gets most of his income and wealth from stock in Berkshire Hathaway, which he has held for many years, thus qualifying for long term capital gains tax treatment on whatever shares he sells. That rate is 15%.
But does he even pay that? Nope.
He donates stock to charities such as the Gates Foundation and pays nothing - the gain is never realized for his tax return. And he even gets a tax deduction on the full value of the stock donated. That deduction offsets whatever other ordinary income which would be taxed at rates as high as 35%. In summary, he pays no gain on the stock donated, yet gets a full value tax deduction for its value: that's free money.
And he says he'll leave all his wealth to the Gates Foundation, thus avoiding any estate taxes. No capital gains taxes will ever be paid.
Warren Buffet is shirking paying his fair share to support the government, including the elderly and the poor and for national defense and for all the other services which benefit him
He's a freeloader.
How can those loopholes be closed?
Make all capital gains be realized and due when any transfer of the stock occurs, whether on donation or on death. Do not permit those taxes (already low) to be offset by charitable donations.
Then billionaire freeloaders would be forced to pay their fair share.
Word of the Day
"Hie" - verb, intransitive and / or reflexive [$10] Shakespeare. Archaic and poetic.
Hie means go quickly
Sentence: Warren, hie to the dog track, you old hypocrite.
While I was in the Canadian wilderness, Warren Buffet said the rich should pay more taxes. No doubt some rich should pay more, particularly the hedge fund and private equity fund managers ... and Warren Buffet himself.
Buffet gets most of his income and wealth from stock in Berkshire Hathaway, which he has held for many years, thus qualifying for long term capital gains tax treatment on whatever shares he sells. That rate is 15%.
But does he even pay that? Nope.
He donates stock to charities such as the Gates Foundation and pays nothing - the gain is never realized for his tax return. And he even gets a tax deduction on the full value of the stock donated. That deduction offsets whatever other ordinary income which would be taxed at rates as high as 35%. In summary, he pays no gain on the stock donated, yet gets a full value tax deduction for its value: that's free money.
And he says he'll leave all his wealth to the Gates Foundation, thus avoiding any estate taxes. No capital gains taxes will ever be paid.
Warren Buffet is shirking paying his fair share to support the government, including the elderly and the poor and for national defense and for all the other services which benefit him
He's a freeloader.
How can those loopholes be closed?
Make all capital gains be realized and due when any transfer of the stock occurs, whether on donation or on death. Do not permit those taxes (already low) to be offset by charitable donations.
Then billionaire freeloaders would be forced to pay their fair share.
Word of the Day
"Hie" - verb, intransitive and / or reflexive [$10] Shakespeare. Archaic and poetic.
Hie means go quickly
Sentence: Warren, hie to the dog track, you old hypocrite.
Monday, August 22, 2011
A Portage Too Far
I ache. I still feel tired.
The wilderness canoe and camping trip was exhausting, as an ambitious plan seems to have angered the wind gods to push back a bit, and make the 'plan" far too much. As Odysseus was blown off course for years, having angered Poseidon (ruler of the sea and waters) and Aeolus (ruler of the winds), so were the Epicurean campers delayed and buffeted, first by Eurus (East wind god), then by Boreas, (North wind god) and at the end by Zephyrus (West wind god). Only Notus (South wind god) was not angry.
Poseidon was particularly angry, as he caused the fish to refuse to bite and even freed fish that were caught by Les Grands Pêcheurs (the great fishermen). Our only fish dinner was from the generosity (and overabundant catch) of another fisherman.
The furthest portage - aka Le Grand Portage - was about two miles long. Sure, over flat ground carrying a 60 lb. pack would be relatively easy. But imagine doing that after a three hour paddle in your canoe, then having the first 200 yards straight up a rocky path, followed by a thousand yards of rocky twisting trail up and down. Then you have to return and do it again. Add it up: almost six miles, four with a 60 lb. pack and almost three over very rugged paths.
You think: but the far wilderness you reached must have been wonderful. Uh ... nope - it was just another lake and the best two camp sites were taken. The fish were reluctant to bite. The only good thing about the area was that we could see an osprey nest on the island where we camped with a fledgling on top of a high, dead tree. The osprey would swoop over the lake, catch a fish & return to feed its young. That was cool.
Too much work, too little fun. A very poor work/fun ratio.
On the bright side are two items.
First, I survived. The other Epicurean campers did not have to hold a Viking funeral for me, pushing a burning canoe (charged to my credit card) into the lake in a blaze of glory.
Second, I learned a marvelous recipe from Grand Jean. He was surely the first class Epicurean camper, making several fine omelettes [with real eggs!!!] for breakfast or lunch and sipping Irish whisky in the evening. The recipe he showed me was so special that I'll save it for tomorrow. He made it for Big Al and himself as they were experimenting with various camping techniques jointly in preparation for a trip to northern Minnesota.
Actions
None. The model has a weak sell signal for real estate stocks, caused likely by the stability of the TIAA real estate fund. I will wait.
Word of the Day
"Nadir" - noun [$10]
Nadir means the lowest point.
Sentence: The psychological nadir of Le Grand Portage was not the physical hardship of the 200 yard climb with a 60 lb pack, but was the crowd of people at the portage at the very end: half a dozen canoes and over a dozen people in a small landing point made it seem like Grand Central Station in the wilderness. Ugh !
The wilderness canoe and camping trip was exhausting, as an ambitious plan seems to have angered the wind gods to push back a bit, and make the 'plan" far too much. As Odysseus was blown off course for years, having angered Poseidon (ruler of the sea and waters) and Aeolus (ruler of the winds), so were the Epicurean campers delayed and buffeted, first by Eurus (East wind god), then by Boreas, (North wind god) and at the end by Zephyrus (West wind god). Only Notus (South wind god) was not angry.
Poseidon was particularly angry, as he caused the fish to refuse to bite and even freed fish that were caught by Les Grands Pêcheurs (the great fishermen). Our only fish dinner was from the generosity (and overabundant catch) of another fisherman.
The furthest portage - aka Le Grand Portage - was about two miles long. Sure, over flat ground carrying a 60 lb. pack would be relatively easy. But imagine doing that after a three hour paddle in your canoe, then having the first 200 yards straight up a rocky path, followed by a thousand yards of rocky twisting trail up and down. Then you have to return and do it again. Add it up: almost six miles, four with a 60 lb. pack and almost three over very rugged paths.
You think: but the far wilderness you reached must have been wonderful. Uh ... nope - it was just another lake and the best two camp sites were taken. The fish were reluctant to bite. The only good thing about the area was that we could see an osprey nest on the island where we camped with a fledgling on top of a high, dead tree. The osprey would swoop over the lake, catch a fish & return to feed its young. That was cool.
Too much work, too little fun. A very poor work/fun ratio.
On the bright side are two items.
First, I survived. The other Epicurean campers did not have to hold a Viking funeral for me, pushing a burning canoe (charged to my credit card) into the lake in a blaze of glory.
Second, I learned a marvelous recipe from Grand Jean. He was surely the first class Epicurean camper, making several fine omelettes [with real eggs!!!] for breakfast or lunch and sipping Irish whisky in the evening. The recipe he showed me was so special that I'll save it for tomorrow. He made it for Big Al and himself as they were experimenting with various camping techniques jointly in preparation for a trip to northern Minnesota.
Actions
None. The model has a weak sell signal for real estate stocks, caused likely by the stability of the TIAA real estate fund. I will wait.
Word of the Day
"Nadir" - noun [$10]
Nadir means the lowest point.
Sentence: The psychological nadir of Le Grand Portage was not the physical hardship of the 200 yard climb with a 60 lb pack, but was the crowd of people at the portage at the very end: half a dozen canoes and over a dozen people in a small landing point made it seem like Grand Central Station in the wilderness. Ugh !
Friday, August 12, 2011
A Bit of French
Les Mots de la Semaine
"Le Pêcheur" - noun [$10] ê is pronounced as it 'pet'
Le pêcheur means the fisherman (male).
"Le Pécheur - noun [$10] é is pronounced 'ay' as in 'day'
Le pécheur mean the sinner [male]
La Phrase: L'homme du bunker espère que Grand Al et Grand Jean sont les grands pêcheurs, et non les grands pécheurs.
Sentence: Bunkerman hopes that Big Al and Big John are great fishermen, and not great sinners.
[Otherwise, he's a couple dinner meals short for the wilderness canoe trip next week. ]
Thursday, August 11, 2011
A Word for Thursday
Word of the Day
"Yawp" - noun & verb [$10] a Mencken word
Yawp means (noun) 1. a harsh or course cry; loud raucous cry; 2. (US) foolish talk; (verb) 1. utter a yawp; 2. (US) talk foolishly; 3. talk continuously and noisily.
Sentence: The yawp on business news channels quickly becomes tiring: hit the mute button.
"Yawp" - noun & verb [$10] a Mencken word
Yawp means (noun) 1. a harsh or course cry; loud raucous cry; 2. (US) foolish talk; (verb) 1. utter a yawp; 2. (US) talk foolishly; 3. talk continuously and noisily.
Sentence: The yawp on business news channels quickly becomes tiring: hit the mute button.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Inflation is Very Selective
We often hear gripes about the cost of gasoline or upper scale foods. And the price of a college education is very high. Most of those items have increased about 10 times in the past 40-50 years. Some items have gotten cheap, though. I won't point to the easy pickings in technology, but this blog points to one cheap, but highly cultured and intellectual good: the classics.
A few weeks ago I reviewed an excellent book that can help one learn ancient Greek [July 14: Learn Ancient Greek, by Peter Jones, costing about $15]. Now I will point out where one can use that knowledge ... cheaply.
The Loeb Classic Library offered by Harvard University Press offers wonderful books containing classic writings and their translations on facing pages. The cost per book? $25 hardcover. Amazingly cheap. I can remember buying textbooks in college in the early 1970s for around the same price. 40 years later and the price of great classic knowledge is not 10x more, but the same !!!
As I write this book, I have a copy of the Loeb Classic Library edition of Aristotle's, Nichomachean Ethics, which is certainly one of the greatest books on political philosophy and social values of human history. For $25 you can read it in English and use the original Greek language to check intriguing passages. What a great bargain !!!
Here's the value analysis: a year at Harvard costs about $50,000 per year. The standard course load is four courses per term for two terms, thus 8 courses per year. [Fyi, Harvard does not do 'credit hours'] The cost thus is $6,250 per course. The cost proved on this blog for a basic course in ancient Greek plus reading material is $40. With the same amount of work by yourself, you can gain $6,250 of knowledge for $40, a return of 156x. What a great investment in your human capital !!!
The cost is about the same as it was 40 years ago: $40 of material and your own human effort - an investment in yourself.
And more: all the classics are available for free on the Internet (copyrights don't exist for them), as are all the great writings done before the 20th century (copyrights have expired). That is a great benefit of modern technology. People should take advantage of these grand bargains.
Actions
None. I didn't get very good prices for my buys yesterday as the beefers front-ran me. Grrrr ... Since I had a lot more existing positions than I was buying, all those went up strongly, I suppose should not complain. But I strive for the best, and am annoyed. Too bad one can't get a price equal to the average price of the day. Now that would be a good product for an institution to offer.
Word of the Day
"Prevenient" - adjective [$10] formal
Prevenient means preceding something else.
Sentence: Prevenient buying after reading this blog yesterday gave some hedge funds easy profits and raised the closing prices I paid for my index fund buys. Grrrr.
A few weeks ago I reviewed an excellent book that can help one learn ancient Greek [July 14: Learn Ancient Greek, by Peter Jones, costing about $15]. Now I will point out where one can use that knowledge ... cheaply.
The Loeb Classic Library offered by Harvard University Press offers wonderful books containing classic writings and their translations on facing pages. The cost per book? $25 hardcover. Amazingly cheap. I can remember buying textbooks in college in the early 1970s for around the same price. 40 years later and the price of great classic knowledge is not 10x more, but the same !!!
As I write this book, I have a copy of the Loeb Classic Library edition of Aristotle's, Nichomachean Ethics, which is certainly one of the greatest books on political philosophy and social values of human history. For $25 you can read it in English and use the original Greek language to check intriguing passages. What a great bargain !!!
Here's the value analysis: a year at Harvard costs about $50,000 per year. The standard course load is four courses per term for two terms, thus 8 courses per year. [Fyi, Harvard does not do 'credit hours'] The cost thus is $6,250 per course. The cost proved on this blog for a basic course in ancient Greek plus reading material is $40. With the same amount of work by yourself, you can gain $6,250 of knowledge for $40, a return of 156x. What a great investment in your human capital !!!
The cost is about the same as it was 40 years ago: $40 of material and your own human effort - an investment in yourself.
And more: all the classics are available for free on the Internet (copyrights don't exist for them), as are all the great writings done before the 20th century (copyrights have expired). That is a great benefit of modern technology. People should take advantage of these grand bargains.
Actions
None. I didn't get very good prices for my buys yesterday as the beefers front-ran me. Grrrr ... Since I had a lot more existing positions than I was buying, all those went up strongly, I suppose should not complain. But I strive for the best, and am annoyed. Too bad one can't get a price equal to the average price of the day. Now that would be a good product for an institution to offer.
Word of the Day
"Prevenient" - adjective [$10] formal
Prevenient means preceding something else.
Sentence: Prevenient buying after reading this blog yesterday gave some hedge funds easy profits and raised the closing prices I paid for my index fund buys. Grrrr.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
The Day After ... Some Moves
Krypto did a bit of work early this morning and found for orders from the machine. She wants to buy quite a bit of US stocks and some emerging market stocks and sell some gold. These moves are a bit larger than the ones a couple weeks ago. These are fairly strong signals and will bring the Krypto Fund back into balance.
Anecdotal talk has the baby boomers doing a bit of panic selling, not wanting to re-live the 2008-9 pain. We know that the Euro-beefers are doing much panic selling and the US beefers are, too. Their year's are now a shambles. For the sake of openness, Krypto Fund is down YTD by 1.89% after being up a bit over 7% not too long ago. Sigh ...
Volatile times. People just can't seem to calm down and get to work. Perhaps living in a bunker is good for the nerves. After all, when one is prepared for Armageddon and civil strife, why worry about the stock market?
Verizon landline workers go on strike. Hmmm ... that's a declining business. The company wants them to pay at least $100 per month towards health care. Uh ... hello? Are these people out of their minds? The union kool-aid must be rather intoxicating.
Word of the Day
"Enthymeme" - noun [$10] Logic
Enthymeme means a syllogism in which one premise is not explicitly stated. [e. g. an argument where a 'commonplace' is ijmplicitly assumed]
Sentence: Until this spring and summer, all debates over the US debt ceiling were rational enthymemes with a premise that neither side would permit a default on US debt obligations. The Tea Party's dishonorable willingness to use US debt holders are human shields in their fight has permanently hurt America's credit standing, and also changed the terms of the debate. Disaster looms if radical left Democrats adopt similar dishonorable stances.
Anecdotal talk has the baby boomers doing a bit of panic selling, not wanting to re-live the 2008-9 pain. We know that the Euro-beefers are doing much panic selling and the US beefers are, too. Their year's are now a shambles. For the sake of openness, Krypto Fund is down YTD by 1.89% after being up a bit over 7% not too long ago. Sigh ...
Volatile times. People just can't seem to calm down and get to work. Perhaps living in a bunker is good for the nerves. After all, when one is prepared for Armageddon and civil strife, why worry about the stock market?
Verizon landline workers go on strike. Hmmm ... that's a declining business. The company wants them to pay at least $100 per month towards health care. Uh ... hello? Are these people out of their minds? The union kool-aid must be rather intoxicating.
Word of the Day
"Enthymeme" - noun [$10] Logic
Enthymeme means a syllogism in which one premise is not explicitly stated. [e. g. an argument where a 'commonplace' is ijmplicitly assumed]
Sentence: Until this spring and summer, all debates over the US debt ceiling were rational enthymemes with a premise that neither side would permit a default on US debt obligations. The Tea Party's dishonorable willingness to use US debt holders are human shields in their fight has permanently hurt America's credit standing, and also changed the terms of the debate. Disaster looms if radical left Democrats adopt similar dishonorable stances.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Monday Morning Hangover
Not me ... the government of the United States of America. After a fifty year binge on spending, as Ronald Reagan said, like a drunken sailor, the hangover hits hard and the pain begins. Will the government take a cold shower and some black coffee ... or succumb to some "hair of the dog"? That is the question.
The Treasury is squawking that S&P is wrong. Readers of this blog know otherwise. On Monday, July 25 of this year the title of this blog was USA ... AA. S&P was generous giving the "+".
There are three major reasons why the ratings were cut:
(1) the 2009 stimulus was mostly squandered on government pork and not worthy projects, and on state spending subsidies, causing the recovery to be subpar, which in turn both hurts tax receipts both short & long term and elevates various support programs for those who lost jobs & incomes;
(2) a general refusal to cut government spending (Has anyone heard true "shared sacrifice", meaning cut the pay of Congress and govt. executives making over $100,000/year?); and
(3) the dishonorable actions of the Tea Party people in refusing to fund new debt to pay off old debts, in effect saying "screw you" to debt holders (who lend the government money for PAST spending).
The entire Washington crowd is the problem, as are the media dupes who propagandize the same old baloney and shams. The US is obviously a AA and would default if a 1930s level depression hit.
This is not a disaster. The US and world economies worked OK for decades - over a century - before the credit of the United States was considered "gilt edged". Perhaps those with no historical education might have trouble adjusting, but that's not Bunkerman.
Futures are getting hit fairly hard - down about 1.5 to 2% across the board. Gold is over $1,700/oz. Oil is down
Today, Bunkerman will be hiding in his bunker, probably loading magazines and oiling some "equipment" ;) Overnight Krypto will be at work after today's deluge, looking for values, and ... thinking.
PS: Bunkerman made pemmican over the weekend, ostensibly for the upcoming wilderness Epicurean canoe trip. The recipe was the best ever, cutting the beef jerky component down a bit and adding some dried blueberries. Ingredients: beef jerky, chopped walnuts, orange-flavored dried cranberries, and dried blueberries, all melded with Jif Reduced Fat peanut butter. Mix well and mold into a bar that is cylinder shape about 3" long and 1" in diameter. Wrap with wax paper and use Scotch tape to hold. For the canoe trip, I put three wrapped pemmican bars into a quart sized Ziplock bag and seal it. I made a dozen bars, good for a midday meal for six days in the wilderness.
Word of the Day
"Discarnate" - adjective [$10] a T. S. Eliot word.
Discarnate means having no physical body, separated from the flesh.
Sentence: I expect discarnate investing to fade in favor of investing in productive assets. That means all this emphasis on "liquidity" is miss-guided. An investor in better off with owning, or lending on, tangible assets.
The Treasury is squawking that S&P is wrong. Readers of this blog know otherwise. On Monday, July 25 of this year the title of this blog was USA ... AA. S&P was generous giving the "+".
There are three major reasons why the ratings were cut:
(1) the 2009 stimulus was mostly squandered on government pork and not worthy projects, and on state spending subsidies, causing the recovery to be subpar, which in turn both hurts tax receipts both short & long term and elevates various support programs for those who lost jobs & incomes;
(2) a general refusal to cut government spending (Has anyone heard true "shared sacrifice", meaning cut the pay of Congress and govt. executives making over $100,000/year?); and
(3) the dishonorable actions of the Tea Party people in refusing to fund new debt to pay off old debts, in effect saying "screw you" to debt holders (who lend the government money for PAST spending).
The entire Washington crowd is the problem, as are the media dupes who propagandize the same old baloney and shams. The US is obviously a AA and would default if a 1930s level depression hit.
This is not a disaster. The US and world economies worked OK for decades - over a century - before the credit of the United States was considered "gilt edged". Perhaps those with no historical education might have trouble adjusting, but that's not Bunkerman.
Futures are getting hit fairly hard - down about 1.5 to 2% across the board. Gold is over $1,700/oz. Oil is down
Today, Bunkerman will be hiding in his bunker, probably loading magazines and oiling some "equipment" ;) Overnight Krypto will be at work after today's deluge, looking for values, and ... thinking.
PS: Bunkerman made pemmican over the weekend, ostensibly for the upcoming wilderness Epicurean canoe trip. The recipe was the best ever, cutting the beef jerky component down a bit and adding some dried blueberries. Ingredients: beef jerky, chopped walnuts, orange-flavored dried cranberries, and dried blueberries, all melded with Jif Reduced Fat peanut butter. Mix well and mold into a bar that is cylinder shape about 3" long and 1" in diameter. Wrap with wax paper and use Scotch tape to hold. For the canoe trip, I put three wrapped pemmican bars into a quart sized Ziplock bag and seal it. I made a dozen bars, good for a midday meal for six days in the wilderness.
Word of the Day
"Discarnate" - adjective [$10] a T. S. Eliot word.
Discarnate means having no physical body, separated from the flesh.
Sentence: I expect discarnate investing to fade in favor of investing in productive assets. That means all this emphasis on "liquidity" is miss-guided. An investor in better off with owning, or lending on, tangible assets.
Friday, August 5, 2011
TGIF
Yesterday we got another dose of the sloppy markets that the SEC and the Street have created. Everything is a "trade" and trillions are ensconced on hot money funds that simply trade: those trillion slosh around seeking profits without making any longer term commitment to an investment. The managers simply want to collect their management fees quarter to quarter and year to date. When something happens to put those fees at risk, they all panic at once and sell everything, and then sell short to jump on the trend.
The beef cattle metaphor works rather well. The beefers mill around, chewing cud and grazing on grass. When thunder rumbled, they stampede, destroying everything in their path. Eventually they tire and stop, and start to look for fresh grass and / or a waterhole.
Now they are sitting on negative years, for the most part, and that Ferrari they wanted to buy with this year's bonus is now a phantom. The world would be a better place if 90% of those hedge funds were simply liquidated, AND if the markets were returned to the early 1980s rules when human beings actually made decisions, not computers.
Then in that golden past, investors actually made investments that might run for 10, 20, or even 30 years. All trades ran through the human beings. Investment bankers actually found long term investors for corporations. All that theoretical "reform" turned out badly.
What is to be Done?
That's the age old question and for today, the Bunkerman turns to Krypto for analysis and guidance. The machine has no new orders. A further stock price drop would bring on orders to buy more US stocks.
Observations
1. Bunkerman's assessment that TIPs (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) were grossly overvalued bought the dust. TIPs are now much more grossly overvalued. Sigh ... See what can happen when one tries to outthink Krypto & her machine. Usually I would not do that, but I was thinking about retirement income and the TIPs returns seemed foolish to lock in. But had I oberyed the machine, I could now be selling TIPs at higher prices and buying something cheap with the gains. TIPs really do move strongly in a counter-cyclically to stocks, so have great value as diversification tools. Ms. Market is a stern schoolmarm.
2. The decision to shift 2/3 of real estate investments to the TIAA Real Estate Fund from the Vanguard REIT Index Fund worked well. The TIAA RE Fund has held its value well, while the REIT Index Fund got carried along with the stock market panic.
3. The best place for gold & silver investments is ... gold and silver. If at all possible, use the ETFs - GLD and SLV - not a gold stock fund. I got lucky Tuesday, as the gold that I sold was in fact the Vanguard Precious Metals Fund, which I zeroed out. Gold mining stocks have been behaving much more like stocks in recent years. I think this is due to both the costs of mining and the stupid moves that management seem to always make. A gold mining company should pay a good dividend based on their net equity investment gold it is selling. Instead, they waste the money on acquisitions, so that the value of the company becomes less than the value of the gold they own in the ground.
Word of the Day
[ASIDE: I have about 50+ words in a stack of index cards that I have come across reading, but not yet used as a "Word of the Day". Intriguingly, leafing thru that stack I can usually find one appropriate for a day's observations or events. As I did today :) ]
"Puling" - adjective [$10] pronounced 'pyuling' with a softened p. From "Pule" that rhymes with "mule"
"Pule" - verb, intransitive [$10] literary. A Mencken word.
Pule means to cry querulously or weakly; whine, whimper.
Sentence: Undisciplined investors today are a puling lot, milling around wondering what to do. Obey the machine.
The beef cattle metaphor works rather well. The beefers mill around, chewing cud and grazing on grass. When thunder rumbled, they stampede, destroying everything in their path. Eventually they tire and stop, and start to look for fresh grass and / or a waterhole.
Now they are sitting on negative years, for the most part, and that Ferrari they wanted to buy with this year's bonus is now a phantom. The world would be a better place if 90% of those hedge funds were simply liquidated, AND if the markets were returned to the early 1980s rules when human beings actually made decisions, not computers.
Then in that golden past, investors actually made investments that might run for 10, 20, or even 30 years. All trades ran through the human beings. Investment bankers actually found long term investors for corporations. All that theoretical "reform" turned out badly.
What is to be Done?
That's the age old question and for today, the Bunkerman turns to Krypto for analysis and guidance. The machine has no new orders. A further stock price drop would bring on orders to buy more US stocks.
Observations
1. Bunkerman's assessment that TIPs (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) were grossly overvalued bought the dust. TIPs are now much more grossly overvalued. Sigh ... See what can happen when one tries to outthink Krypto & her machine. Usually I would not do that, but I was thinking about retirement income and the TIPs returns seemed foolish to lock in. But had I oberyed the machine, I could now be selling TIPs at higher prices and buying something cheap with the gains. TIPs really do move strongly in a counter-cyclically to stocks, so have great value as diversification tools. Ms. Market is a stern schoolmarm.
2. The decision to shift 2/3 of real estate investments to the TIAA Real Estate Fund from the Vanguard REIT Index Fund worked well. The TIAA RE Fund has held its value well, while the REIT Index Fund got carried along with the stock market panic.
3. The best place for gold & silver investments is ... gold and silver. If at all possible, use the ETFs - GLD and SLV - not a gold stock fund. I got lucky Tuesday, as the gold that I sold was in fact the Vanguard Precious Metals Fund, which I zeroed out. Gold mining stocks have been behaving much more like stocks in recent years. I think this is due to both the costs of mining and the stupid moves that management seem to always make. A gold mining company should pay a good dividend based on their net equity investment gold it is selling. Instead, they waste the money on acquisitions, so that the value of the company becomes less than the value of the gold they own in the ground.
Word of the Day
[ASIDE: I have about 50+ words in a stack of index cards that I have come across reading, but not yet used as a "Word of the Day". Intriguingly, leafing thru that stack I can usually find one appropriate for a day's observations or events. As I did today :) ]
"Puling" - adjective [$10] pronounced 'pyuling' with a softened p. From "Pule" that rhymes with "mule"
"Pule" - verb, intransitive [$10] literary. A Mencken word.
Pule means to cry querulously or weakly; whine, whimper.
Sentence: Undisciplined investors today are a puling lot, milling around wondering what to do. Obey the machine.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Lies in "Science"
Since the 1960s, scientists have been on a money chase for grants from the Federal government. They do it for their own careers and because the universities want to put their snouts in the trough. Truth matters little; people publish what ever sells. The salesman's rule applies: Tell'em what they want to hear, sell'em what they want to buy." And the government bureaucrats want answers that give them more power.
The entire human-caused global warming campaign is a sordid example of this. It's a colossal fraud to get more money, jobs & tenure to whomever is a good liar for "the cause".
A reliable site and a very capable researcher finally obtained the raw, unadjusted data for ALL temperature stations in the world for ALL times that such exists. He analyzed it, looking very hard at that data's internal variability. That's what any GOOD researcher would do first: determine what that data's statistics can or cannot say about any trends. I learned this at MIT's Sloan School in the statistics class and in the forecasting from two fine professors. Look at the data!!!
What does one see from the raw data?
Here are two posts from a fine website written by a talented theoretical physicist (and talented number-cruncher), formerly of Harvard and now in his native Czech Republic.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/hadcrut3-31-of-stations-saw-cooling.html
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/global-mean-temperature-since-1706.html
"Those are just natural variations that Nature contains and everyone who wants to understand the climate and the weather should first learn something about the natural variability that the changing weather brings to various places of the globe - as well as their average."
There is nothing statistically significant in ANY of the claims about recent increases in global warming. The entire movement is an exercise in data-mining to support a political agenda ... and to get the money from the grants. The scientists pushing these claims are just like patent medicine hawkers - willing to say anything to get the money.
Whatever trends exist after normal variability is eliminated are the century + changes caused by changed in the Sun's activity levels over many decades or centuries.
All the models are wrong and the billions wasted on that has been flushed down the toilet. Carbon dioxide is an effect, not a cause: Image a bobber on a fishing line in a lake. It will move with the current and small waves, but the bobber does not cause the movement.
The cause of long term temperature variations on the earth is small changes in cloud cover (intrinsically water vapor) in turn caused by changes in cloud formation processes caused by changes in cosmic rays hitting the earth, which in turn are modulated by the solar wind and magnetic field, which are directly connected to solar activity levels in the active regions of the Sun. Yes, that's a long chain, but nature is full of long chains; in fact, all nature IS a long chain of connected actions.
Measurement of the carbon 14 isotope on the earth exist covering about 50,000 years. The carbon 14 level is strongly correlated with many measures of temperature. And carbon 14 IS created by cosmic rays. Why are these two measurement strongly correlated? BECAUSE THE SAME THING IS CAUSING BOTH, NAMELY THE COSMIC RAY CHANGES CAUSED BY SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGES.
What we have is a physical process of causation AND measured data showing the effects exists. That is scientific PROOF and is TRUTH.
Word of the Day
Today there are two.
"Warp" - noun [$10] as used in weaving
Warp means the threads strtched lengthwise in a loom to be crossed by a weft.
"Weft" - noun [$10]
Weft means 1. a. the threads woven across a warp to make a fabric; 1. b. yarn for these; 1. c. a thing woven; 2. filing strips in basket weaving.
Sentence: Just as one needs both warp and weft to make woven cloth, so does one need both a physical process and data correlation to prove a scientific claim.
The entire human-caused global warming campaign is a sordid example of this. It's a colossal fraud to get more money, jobs & tenure to whomever is a good liar for "the cause".
A reliable site and a very capable researcher finally obtained the raw, unadjusted data for ALL temperature stations in the world for ALL times that such exists. He analyzed it, looking very hard at that data's internal variability. That's what any GOOD researcher would do first: determine what that data's statistics can or cannot say about any trends. I learned this at MIT's Sloan School in the statistics class and in the forecasting from two fine professors. Look at the data!!!
What does one see from the raw data?
Here are two posts from a fine website written by a talented theoretical physicist (and talented number-cruncher), formerly of Harvard and now in his native Czech Republic.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/hadcrut3-31-of-stations-saw-cooling.html
http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/global-mean-temperature-since-1706.html
"Those are just natural variations that Nature contains and everyone who wants to understand the climate and the weather should first learn something about the natural variability that the changing weather brings to various places of the globe - as well as their average."
There is nothing statistically significant in ANY of the claims about recent increases in global warming. The entire movement is an exercise in data-mining to support a political agenda ... and to get the money from the grants. The scientists pushing these claims are just like patent medicine hawkers - willing to say anything to get the money.
Whatever trends exist after normal variability is eliminated are the century + changes caused by changed in the Sun's activity levels over many decades or centuries.
All the models are wrong and the billions wasted on that has been flushed down the toilet. Carbon dioxide is an effect, not a cause: Image a bobber on a fishing line in a lake. It will move with the current and small waves, but the bobber does not cause the movement.
The cause of long term temperature variations on the earth is small changes in cloud cover (intrinsically water vapor) in turn caused by changes in cloud formation processes caused by changes in cosmic rays hitting the earth, which in turn are modulated by the solar wind and magnetic field, which are directly connected to solar activity levels in the active regions of the Sun. Yes, that's a long chain, but nature is full of long chains; in fact, all nature IS a long chain of connected actions.
Measurement of the carbon 14 isotope on the earth exist covering about 50,000 years. The carbon 14 level is strongly correlated with many measures of temperature. And carbon 14 IS created by cosmic rays. Why are these two measurement strongly correlated? BECAUSE THE SAME THING IS CAUSING BOTH, NAMELY THE COSMIC RAY CHANGES CAUSED BY SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGES.
What we have is a physical process of causation AND measured data showing the effects exists. That is scientific PROOF and is TRUTH.
Word of the Day
Today there are two.
"Warp" - noun [$10] as used in weaving
Warp means the threads strtched lengthwise in a loom to be crossed by a weft.
"Weft" - noun [$10]
Weft means 1. a. the threads woven across a warp to make a fabric; 1. b. yarn for these; 1. c. a thing woven; 2. filing strips in basket weaving.
Sentence: Just as one needs both warp and weft to make woven cloth, so does one need both a physical process and data correlation to prove a scientific claim.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Wednesday ... Work!
Krypto got up early this morning to check her model and found some work to do. Mrs. B's selling of some stocks a few weeks ago proved rather prescient ... ok, she out-invested Krypto on that move.
The model has rather strong signals to buy some US stocks, European stocks and to sell some gold. Yesterday Ms. Market was quite troublesome, slapping anyone who made any positive move for her. I wonder if it's too soon - the charts are ugly. But ... we shall obey the machine.
Word of the Day
"Hermetic" - adjective [$10] also hermetical
Hermetic means 1. with an airtight closure; 2. protected from outside agencies; 3. a. of alchemy or other occult sciences (hermetic art); 3. b. esoteric.
Sentence: The US is not a hermetic entity that can go on whatever path it chooses; that freedom was lost when the US economy became dependent on foreign dollar denominated loans. BUT as those loans are dollar denominated, the US is far, far, better off than nations which borrow in currencies other than their own.
The model has rather strong signals to buy some US stocks, European stocks and to sell some gold. Yesterday Ms. Market was quite troublesome, slapping anyone who made any positive move for her. I wonder if it's too soon - the charts are ugly. But ... we shall obey the machine.
Word of the Day
"Hermetic" - adjective [$10] also hermetical
Hermetic means 1. with an airtight closure; 2. protected from outside agencies; 3. a. of alchemy or other occult sciences (hermetic art); 3. b. esoteric.
Sentence: The US is not a hermetic entity that can go on whatever path it chooses; that freedom was lost when the US economy became dependent on foreign dollar denominated loans. BUT as those loans are dollar denominated, the US is far, far, better off than nations which borrow in currencies other than their own.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Birth of a ?
Congress and the Bloviator in Chief have created a bill that will raise the US debt ceiling. Does anyone know what is in this bill? No.
The bill was created in the back rooms and dark corners in the Dark City. Was the public involved? No. Does the bill create prioities? No. Does the bill cut pay of the bloated Federal workforce? No.
The bill creates a special commission with much power. Who will be on it? Congressmen & women. No one from the public will have any power.
A clean bill would have been much better. Real dialogue on real issues and priorities would be better. The Dark City is still in charge and leads us ... where? To the Shining City on the Hill, a la Ronald Reagan? I think not. The denizens of the Dark City lead us a gloomy place sounding of screams and screeches and more lust for power and gluttony of its inhabitants. Ugh.
We need new leadership and new vision ...
Word of the Day
"Accoucheur" - noun [$100] French adopted into English (used in Middlemarch by George Eliot.
Accoucheur means a male midwife.
Sentence: With Barry as accoucheur, Boehner and Pelosi have created a bill reminiscent of science fiction mutant births ... a monster.
The bill was created in the back rooms and dark corners in the Dark City. Was the public involved? No. Does the bill create prioities? No. Does the bill cut pay of the bloated Federal workforce? No.
The bill creates a special commission with much power. Who will be on it? Congressmen & women. No one from the public will have any power.
A clean bill would have been much better. Real dialogue on real issues and priorities would be better. The Dark City is still in charge and leads us ... where? To the Shining City on the Hill, a la Ronald Reagan? I think not. The denizens of the Dark City lead us a gloomy place sounding of screams and screeches and more lust for power and gluttony of its inhabitants. Ugh.
We need new leadership and new vision ...
Word of the Day
"Accoucheur" - noun [$100] French adopted into English (used in Middlemarch by George Eliot.
Accoucheur means a male midwife.
Sentence: With Barry as accoucheur, Boehner and Pelosi have created a bill reminiscent of science fiction mutant births ... a monster.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Monday Morning Ramblings
A debt limit deal is announced.
As usual, it's a fake. Why bother? Congress wanted headlines for awhile to obfuscate their colossal failings to help the plain people.
The government is "cutting spending", but are the benefits of government workers being cut? No.
Is the pay of the so-called "executive" class of government bureaucrats being cut? Nope.
Is the pay and benefits of Congress being cut? Nope.
The bloviators in the Dark City love to talk about "shared sacrifice" and "accountability" yet the one class who never sacrifices and never has accountability is the "leadership" class in the Dark City.
They continue to put their snouts in the trough and slurp down everything.
I read a little article yesterday in a WSJ from last week. Federal spending was about 25% of GDP this year, and Federal revenues was about 15%.
Uh ... from memory, long term Federal spending the "spending hawks" cite is about 20%.
Does that not tell every rational person something?
We need a 20% spending cut and a 33% increase in tax collections. The current tax code can't do it, and without cutting Federal pay and benefit levels, affordable spending can't provide the services people expect.
The cost of government must be reduced. Perhaps it's time to set priorities.
By the way, Social Security is about a breakeven: it collects about what it pays out, even with the widespread disability scams.
Word of the Day
"Congener" - noun [$10]
Congener means 1. a person or thing of the same kind or category as another, esp. animals or plants of a specified genus (the raspberry and the blackberry are congeners); 2. (esp. US) a by-product giving a distinctive character to a wine or spirit.
Sentence: The lastest "deal" to raise the debt limit is a congener to every other one from the past four decades: it's a fake.
As usual, it's a fake. Why bother? Congress wanted headlines for awhile to obfuscate their colossal failings to help the plain people.
The government is "cutting spending", but are the benefits of government workers being cut? No.
Is the pay of the so-called "executive" class of government bureaucrats being cut? Nope.
Is the pay and benefits of Congress being cut? Nope.
The bloviators in the Dark City love to talk about "shared sacrifice" and "accountability" yet the one class who never sacrifices and never has accountability is the "leadership" class in the Dark City.
They continue to put their snouts in the trough and slurp down everything.
I read a little article yesterday in a WSJ from last week. Federal spending was about 25% of GDP this year, and Federal revenues was about 15%.
Uh ... from memory, long term Federal spending the "spending hawks" cite is about 20%.
Does that not tell every rational person something?
We need a 20% spending cut and a 33% increase in tax collections. The current tax code can't do it, and without cutting Federal pay and benefit levels, affordable spending can't provide the services people expect.
The cost of government must be reduced. Perhaps it's time to set priorities.
By the way, Social Security is about a breakeven: it collects about what it pays out, even with the widespread disability scams.
Word of the Day
"Congener" - noun [$10]
Congener means 1. a person or thing of the same kind or category as another, esp. animals or plants of a specified genus (the raspberry and the blackberry are congeners); 2. (esp. US) a by-product giving a distinctive character to a wine or spirit.
Sentence: The lastest "deal" to raise the debt limit is a congener to every other one from the past four decades: it's a fake.
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