The beefers might romp and kick the market around today, as the employment number might give them a chance. Here's why:
A high number of new jobs implies a stronger economy and less chance of a Fed rate cut.
A low number implies a weak economy and possible negative economic momentum.
In either case, I would expect real buyers to pull bids and wait. So beefer shorts can press the market down without resistance.
A middle number - that's 25,000 to 75,000 this month in my humble opinion - will keep the real buyers in the game and might take us up as the beefer shorts cover.
Oil is strong. Gold is strong. Gasoline demand is about equal to 2006 lately. Perhaps the public is slowly cutting a little.
Elmer is blabbing to sell his book & get speaker fees. Sheesh.
It's obvious the economy is and has been slowing for months. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Fed policy takes months to have an effect. If they were private sector people with a bonus at stake, they'd have already cut based on the inflation data.
But the Fed officials draw a government paycheck and are out of touch with the common man. They have a statutory mandate to maintain maximum employment with price stability. Part 2 has worked. Will they fail on part 1?
My iPhone is working out well. I like it. I put all my stocks into it yesterday, so could check the prices & charts [yes, charts!] on the sheep field :-)))
I just touch the screen to pick a stock and it's chart comes up for various time periods - day, month 3 months, year, and more. Very nice!
I have a lot to learn to use it better, BUT I am not suffering from buyer's remorse.
Hmmm and Steve Jobs is giving me $200 back since I bought it within 14 days of Wednesday. Great!!!
PS: I wonder if some of the OPEC and Russian petrodollars that I have speculated here about being withheld from the Eurodollar markets are being redeployed into gold? Gold sure is strong. I know it's the beginning of physical demand season. I'm just wondering if the Eurodollar weakness is another sign of some other demand showing up.
PPS: Horrible jobs numbers and big negative revisions in prior months. Sighhhh. The Fed is proven wrong again. AGAIN they forgot their cuts have a lagging effect and they are now three months behing the curve.
P^3S: The Fed should have began cutting in June or even earlier. I don't understand how they can get their butts kisses by so many talking heads and be soooooooooooo wrong.
P^4S: The employment is a lagging indicator, so they are so behind it's sickening.
P^5S; So the Fed gets an "F" for benchmark #2. Uh, I think some of THEM should be laid off.
P^6S: Uh, if you can't guess, I'm VERY ANGRY with the Fed. They have screwed up again and are hurting the common man.
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67 comments:
Does mr G read this blog? He compared current crisis to panic of 1907.
Mern with a charles dicken-esq post last nite. 'depression' 'foreclosure' 'abandonment' 'inflation'.....what a classic!!!!!
lmaooooooooooo
private sector with a bonus at stake? Bman aren't you the one always rantin and huffin and puffin about how the ceo's ( and other execs) don't care about the common man and are only interested in linin their own pockets? hogs at the trough? now you want the fed guys to act like them...huh??????
Oh Bud, not everyone who gets a bonus in the private sectos is rich & powerful. Lots of people get small bonuses for real performance.
CEOs are different as they get bonuses for anything, crappy performance or good performance.
yes, euromern's post was a classic!
But no stagger lee ... hmmm ... maybe the "lee" is gone?
Thanks to a certain "room" member for his Saints pick...fading that was a good way to get the NFL betting season off to a fine start...lmaooooo
Thanks mfl, I was happy to hear the momo's are not in gold. I have always thought one must buy dips & sell rips in gold [and all other commodity related stocks] if one is a trader in those.
So perhaps the move has a long way to go to bring in those buyers.
Holding for $1000 here. If we get to $900-950 too soon I might sell some, though.
I'm happy I got my futures to lock in prices of the coins I'm going to buy in late October.
Bman is the gold coin purchase for investment purposes .....or is it a part of your armageddon preparedness strategy?
it's both, Bud.
But I wouldn't buy so much gold just for armageddon
sheesh the jobs numbers are horrible.
Obvioulsy Bunkerman was right - the Fed should have been cutting rates beginning in June.
mern's lack of faith in governemnt numbers is proven.
die mkt die...
mern spot on...
Mern a genius!!!!
lmaooooooooo
Bman can you explain to me why gold has been surging last few days? I haven't been payin attention to it.
I wrote a bit about possible reasons gold might be surging. Dollar, petroollars flowing into gold vs. Eurodollars. But it's also physical demand season.
day to day, gold can surge from beefers - or drop from beefers. They love playing ping pong with it.
I really think about it
I think if I was a sheik and was worried a bit about banks in Europe, I might buy some gold.
ditto a Russian.
They have big dollar flows to invest.
Don't get angry Bman.
PS....go to the range and burn it off. guns.........ugh
Before the # Vince Farrell was Kevin Bacon in Animal House..."ALLIS WELL..ALL IS WELL"......now hes running to the Bunker..lol
Does Stonewall take gold coins?
Mern's boss on bloomberg tv
Hey Bunkerman!
I love your blog.
I found this site after running into Bud at Walmart. He told me about it.
Looks like we are going to relive the 1987 market crash.
lmaooooooo stonewall
Hi anbion.
I like to blab here and post my thinking.
I lived thru 1987 - this doesn't seem like it to me. Maybe the mid 1980s before the big run up to 1987. Then the Fed destroyed the farm belt & the midWest industries with high interest rates. No recession then, disinlfation.
But if the Fed doesn't get moving, there could be more trouble if unemployment really starts up. Weak house prices plus weak employment will kill the consumer.
This White House guy is delusional. Why can't they hammer the Fed?
wimps.
covering some of my virtual short plays today and tightening stops accross the board...this is what the fed needed to cut rates ahead of the sept 18th meeting...they have jumped the tape twice in the very recent past....the firday bear fry.
Abion in the house (Bud at walmart LMAOOOO)....I need to find a better place to hang out :)
Bunerkman....mad at the fed...lol...you are waiting for better prices to load the boat on the fins and now you may just get your chance...you needed the fed to be wrong to get better prices...what did I miss.
are real buyers lurking at these levels?
I think real buyers will be patient esp. now. I know I am patient with the rest of my boatload lolol.
Bunkerman....CFC under the BAC deal price...with a rate cut coming I doubt it falls far from here...you have a handle on the situation...should we back up the truck CFC.
speaking of boatload..frosty..whats the name of your boat??
SS Fade Bud???
Bunkerman how are the fundamentals of coal setting up? I have read a few bullish articles recently and am seeing some possible setups in the stocks...ie CNX ACI BTU...thank you
lol Spin...nice try...the Triple K
MLF will soon be MIA again is my prediction...now that he has the corner, he will be on the lamb...safe travels MLF...if you do get nabbed, post your prison address, we will chip in for a cake and a rock hammer so you go shawshank on their ass.
Isn't frosty's boat called the ....Larry Craig Cruiser?
I like coal long term. At some point as the price of oil keeps going up, coal will become the dominate energy producer.
It's down a bit now as warm weather has let the price of nat gas go down, hence utilities can use some of it instead of coal.
I have BTU (quite a bit) since its the biggest. BHP has much coal too - they sell to China. Hmmm that chart does look good.
I just have BAC and want more cheap.
CFC needs a Fed rate cut badly.
I don't have much feel for CFC's earnings power alone in the future. I figure they get bought or dismembered.
lmaoooo Frosty....corner
How is a rate cut gonna help CFC?
CFC..huh..how do lower rates help the fins...working the BAC put...the goverment has already said CFC will survive by backing BAC....fins lead us in they lead us out...Bunkerman please keep Bud after class today for some one on one attention....bears fear keeping them from crushing the tape becasue of the fed cut put...hence you get a double put CFC.
sheesh. D'uh! rate cuts let many people refinance the ARMS and lowers their payments. That lets CFC make money and not lose as much.
Many marginal borrowers can be saved with rate cuts.
Also if there are rates cuts to get the yield curve normal again where it should be with moderate growth, the banks can make money on the ST-LT spread as they hold loans for resale.
Frosty are you long CFC here????? a simple 'yes' or 'no' will do. thank you.
CFC 17.70 this morning Bud...also covered my LEH short...virtual indeed.
GSS taking sugar on half from 2.73...that was all MLF...hell of a call, just a super job...if you need a good lawyer, you can count on me to chip in...at a minimum malted beverages on me.
Ok frosty. I've always wanted to ask this. What the heck does 'taking sugar' mean? Is that some sort of larry craig talk?
I'll ask Bunkerman to add that to tonights leason plan Bud...hang in there, we will get you up to speed...I realize how hard the transistion to the right can be...my advice, just don't fight it, that only makes it more painful.
uh, I might be a square, but in the context that Frosty used it and from the GSS chart, taking sugar can only mean taking profits.
sugar = something sweet = profits
I had to jump the gun here, Frosty on the evening session. By 5PM I will be on my "World's Finest Martini"
Bunkerman....25 bps and the bulls will still cry like little girls...is 50 bps enough? is 100 bps even possible?
They should to 50 plus cut teh discount rate 100 to equal the overngiht rate.
Just 25 is lackedaisecal and show a lack of understanding. Not enough not.
75 plus 125 discount rate cut to 4.5% would be correct in my opinion.
excellent gedankening Bunkerman
Bud, can we get the football picks, nfl, before who leave for a druken slut chasing weekend? we can even call it craig's list. xoxoxo
Breifing weekend reading: Rate cut far from certain....Time to take a bite of Apple....you just can't make this stuff up.
SNCR...who is holding that pig up today, it should be down 2-3...AAPL going take those rebates outa' someones hide...bulls best wake up and dump it into the close.
No betting this weekend. I had a 'paper trade' on new orleans last nite. Wheeeeewhhhh. Saved some money. I like to start nfl week 2.
no betting..bullshit Bud......
paper loss..lmaooooo
lmaoooooooooooooooooo
by the way, see Feb 4, 2007 post for the martini recipe :-))
I'm dreaming of a stiff martini;
just like the one I always have;
Ice cold gin, vodka;
and lillet toooo;
lemon twist on twinkling iceeeee.
boo boo boooo [imagine Bing Crosby]
S&P cash chart is getting more interesting. That inverse H&S is clearer, now with the pullback from 1500.
But for the bear, a trend line break below 1450 would signal 1430 or 1400.
Bman where are the real buyers?
PS....godammit bring back the uptick rule!!!!!!
lolololol
Thanks for the Rolling Rock
The green colored glass,
too many ....fall on your ass,
Just pour in a glass
and leave the day in the past
I thank youooooo,
soooo much..
Bob Hope(thanks for the memories)
rofl
who is this guy on cnbc..porky firken' pig.
good on spin. I recognized from line 1 hehehe.
I think real buyers will be patient until they "know" the Fed will make the right decision.
I have to run an errand. Good luck on the football bets ;-))
Real buyers............more like real pussies. pffffffft
wrap it up and pop a top...first round on me...super week boys...cheers.
E------Li's..a commminnnnn
G*I*A*N*T*S!!!!!!!
Thanks bunk...
great weekend to all
cya Big Tuna
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