The Yale Endowment returned 28% for the fiscal year ended June 30. That's excellent and is the #1 endowment return. The manager, David Swenson, wrote a book about how the individual can invest similar to his methods - as much as possible. The book is "Investment Success" and I recommend it. My Krypto Fund has actually been managed similar to his suggested methods for about 15 years. It's done quite well and the massive diversification really paid off in the Nasdaq bubble and burst periods. So for long term pension money and most other long term money, I recommend following the Swenson methods.
Short term trading can provide much higher returns - 100% or more - BUT that's a really huge amount of work and stress and there are long periods when nothing works. I used to do that with much success, but now don't: too much stress and work and I don't need those returns anymore.
BUT you can make really good returns on a portion of your investment money by long term investing in selected strong groups and strong stocks. That's my Alpha Fund. I limit the amount I risk there to no more than 20% of my market investment assets. I actually limit it more now as the absolute amounts have gotten a bit scary for me.
The beefers sometimes knock a stock or group down as they rotate or get into a shorting binge. That's when a good entry, dip buy can work. For example, CSCO. That stock has been putting up good numbers and is in the fast growing Internet space - it's a leader. The stock has a fine uptrend. CSCO reported great earnings, the stock popped up and the beefers immediately started selling & shorting it. The beefers hit it with their shorts/rotation and "world is ending" mantra. So one could have bought it under 30 AFTER the great earnings were known. I and some commenters did that. Since then, CSCO has done fine and just popped to a new high out of a fine, ascending triangle base.
I'm just using CSCO as an example how the dip buys of good stocks in a bull market can print fine numbers for an actively managed part of your investment mix.
PS: the reason I used the beefers as a whipping boy for creating good entries is because ... often there really is NO real reason for a stock's pullback. The beefers really do cause these moves with their antics. Just sit back and wait and be patient to get a good entry you can hold for a year or so.
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40 comments:
Very good blog post B'man.
thanks
Bunkerman...you just had to talk CSCO again today...you want me out, fine, done :)
Bud YGE and LDK darksiders working this morning, good job...what else do you have...glad you trade better than you sports bet.
I was really making the same point in a larger forum, frosty. That sugar must have been eating a hole in your pocket to sell such a trending stock ;-)))
LMAOOO...heck of a run in a short period as you pointed out...we will join forces again...I'm a real buyer.
Bunkerman...it is wild out there today in a flat tape with no juice, read volume...the beefers gunning away...which I have to problem with...the IWM appears stuck, what do you think of small caps, will they take the lead...or are we back to the nifty fifty.
KONG one of the chicoms yet to move...well not today...60% pop today, see no news.
long term investing........lmaooooooooooooooooooooo
i prefer beefer investing
I see many point movers with flat indices, too, frosty.
I think it's the energy, miners, fins, big cap industrials and select big cap tech that lead. [what I own ;-)))] The beefers might bull the Russell up - they like playing with it. But with economic softness, I think they'll be cautious doing that until the growth moves higher or solid growth shows up in Q3 or Q4.
I've been watching ken burns The War on pbs. Last nite's episode was the most powerful so far. I hope all the chicken hawks like W and cheney and the Bman watched it. Bman alwasy talks about war as some sort of romantic adventure. Lemme say this clearly.....there is nuthin ROMANTIC about war. It is an ugly part of life that has no winners. It ruins families and leaves emotional scars on both sides.
Last nite they had a GI who was crying 60 years later when he saw the dead bodies of 2 young nazi soldiers. They were his age and he was devastated when he saw their bodies. They also had an airman that had killed hundreds of nazis and he still had nitemares over that. There is no recovery from killing another human being. One of the most heartbreaking scenes was at the island of saipan. After the japanese had been defeated some 10,000 japanese civilians were afraid that american soldiers were going to eat them alive. So they started comitting suicide. Babies were being thrown over a cliff. American soldiers tried their best to stop the madness. What a horrifying story.
It is interesting that all the guys who served have horrible memories of war and have never truly recovered. Yet guys like the Bman who sit in their luxurious homes and watch dvd's about past wars get some 'pleasure' and 'entertainment ' from it.
PS....Frosty's another chicken-hawk. He also wants to blow everyone up while he hides in his bunker like a pussy.
Of course chicken-hawks like the Bman or frosty have no problem bombin and killin foreigners ( even children). They think american lives are more precious than others. I do not. All human lives are equally precious to me.
Cheney is a baby-killin scumbag.
die GOP die !!!!!
LMAOOO chicken hawk pussy...tastes like beef.
http://www.usscanopus.homestead.com/Ancon1.html
My Dad was on the USS Ancon....he never talked about the war....only said he had a front row seat to the Surrender ceremony in Tokyo Bay..from his ship.....did some GOOGing ...went through tons of kamikazee attacks off Okinawa...and it bugs me I cant find a better picture to see him on that ship...19..pffttt
Well, Bud, I guess you didn't grow up in a small town where EVERY GUY went to fight the Japs & Germans in WW II. Almost every single male parent in town when I was growing up served in WW II.
And I guess you don't/didn't go to Memorial Day remembrances to honor the war dead every year as a kid. Or talk to Battle of the Bulge veterans as an eight year old kid. Or have an uncle who fought in the jungles of New Guinea and the Philipines for three years solid. Or have a father who was a gunner on a ship off Okinawa or have a best friend get bayoneted the back next to him. Cousins who were fighter-bomber pilots in Europe, on and on.
Or have friends who fought in Vietnam in the jungles, on boats or at Khe Sanh.
My next door neighbor here - a good friend, was a gunner on a B-24 bomber ove Europe and was on the famous Ploesti raid. We talk about his war experiences all the time.
I know a lot more about war - real war - than you'll ever see on Ken Burns - from people I know personally.
or have a father-in-law who was in the Marines in the Pacific for three straight years. Sheesh, I've gotten him to tell me his entire service career. He never talked about it to his daughter, my wife. We talked about it many times after I get a bit of wine into him.
By the way, don't generalize about how those guys think about the enemey from Ken Burns. What you wrote was way off base. Not only from my peronal relatives and friends, but from dozens of first hand memoirs I've read.
lmaooooooooo tastes like beef
So Bman the guys you know and talked to about war........enjoyed killing another human being?
they didn't enjoy it but the enemy was evil and wouldn't surrender so they dished out as much as they could to win the war.
Univerally, every veteran whom I've talked to cared/cares a lot more about his buddies who got killed than about the enemy killed.
Right Bman. And ken Burns series is sayin that too. They did their job. But it was not a thrill or a pleasant experience.
War shud always be the ultimate last option. Try everything else first ...and then try it 100 times again. But W and Cheney didn't want to hear that in 2003. Why shud they care...their sons aren't goin to die. They're chicken -hawks. Pussies. Bitches. When it was their time to serve they pussied out. National guard. Deferrments. Disgusting pigs.
PS....Frosty do chicken-hawks wear boxers or briefs.......or panties?
Sheeeesh Bman. You didn't get my post. You're clueless. Pfffft
I don't think your political point works either re Bush/Cheney not serving re fighting in Iraq.
The veterans I talk to/know mostly think the Middle East should be half glass.
But I do think the lack of war experience by Bush/Cheney let them conduct the Iraq war in the unwinnable strategy they are doing/did. That point works.
Of course they do Bman. You only talk to guys who agree with you. Do you even know one liberal? Any democrat? I bet all your friends want to nuke Iran. That sure seems like a good representaion what the american people want.
Half-glass. Bman made my point. He wants to obliterate all the middle east. Millions of innocent women and children will die. Damn them . We are the USA and rest of the world ...go fuck yourself. Thats how chicken hawks think. Thankfully most americans not so blood thirsty.
no, they're just tired of seeing Americans killed by Mid East terrorists for over 30 years.
Bin Laden says convert or be killed. Not a lot of negotiating there. Or "alternatives"
Let's see. If then people living where bin Laden is hiding are "friends", I wonder why they don't send his location to the US so the US can send in a 2000 lb bomb to finish him off?
Givng bin Laden a place to hide is not a "friend"
Bunkerman any idea why refiners have been lagging here? aside from the obvious beefer games, of course...
or an "innocent"
mfl, it's probably the crack spreads. Beefers trade refiners are surrogates for crack spread. Oil prices are a cost to refiners.
I can't bring up the crack spread chart. that damned Vista computer sucks. Vista sucks! its a pos.
Bud..now that you have mentioned panties, you sure have your in a bunch...oh, I get it...pms.
My older brother is a rampant liberal. Almost always wrong hehehe. And I enjoy debates with some other liberals I know. We try to keep it at a high, intellectual level, though.
seems like the markets are moving up cautiously to find where the sellers are higher.
10 times...as big as a maaaaaan
Thanks Frosty
(no f bombs Bud..you hate war remember?)..loooool
Bunkerman...I can see the real buyers waiting to pounce.
I think I see your point a bit better Bud, but including me in that list with Bush & Cheney was an F.
So many friends in my small town are named after an uncle ... because he got killed in WW II.
And my middle name is my uncle's - because he got killed during the Korean War.
Don't mix me up with Bush & Cheney. If Pelosi wasn't third in line, I'd be for impeachment.
Bunkerman...do you know a good chicken hawk pussy boot camps were we can place Bud...you need to use a firmer hand.
mfl, the 3-2-1 crack spread is quite low - about 7. That's at the low end of its range. At some point product prices will move up. They tend to be low at teh end of a season, then rise into it. The beefers seem to trade the refiners as a proxy for crack spreads at a point in time, disregarding the profitability of a refiner depends more on the annual average crack spreads.
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