Recovery

For me, that is. The economy begins recovery later this Spring.

Regular "thoughtful" posts should resume Monday.

Unemployment Pool

I have been asked to organize a pool for predictions of the peak unemployment number for this business cycle. The contest will be determined from BLS data, so no griping that it's fixed or biased to the low side, please. So far, selections have been 8% (me), 11.5%, 13.45% and 12%. This is open to anyone, but your choice must be posted in the comments. who posts in the comments, I will write them down on a card and a winner will be determined whenever the peak is obviously past.

By the way, BLS data truly IS biased to the low side, as persons in part-time work or who have left the workforce due to futility are not counted as unemployed.

I might give a prize, perhaps a fine WW II style Army helmet. I had bought some for prizes for Dow 15,000, but that might not happen for awhile.

Word of the Day

"Futility" - noun [$10] an interesting usage for variant of the common word, futile.
Futile (adjective) means 1. useless, ineffectual, vain; 2. frivolous, trifling.
Futility (noun) would be the state or quality of being futile.
Sentence: (from H. L. Mencken describing Herbert Hoover) "In the past his futilities were only too often overlooked in the blinding light of his publicity ..."

Interestingly, H. L. Mencken had a very low opinion of Herbert Hoover even in 1928, before the Great Depression. In modern terms, Mencken thought Hoover was a mere resume with no leadership ability. Reading Mencken's concurrent writings about Hoover make me think that many modern revisionist writings of Hoover are wrong.

Another sentence: The futilities of most members of the U. S. Senate becomes glaring as soon as they open their mouths.