Friday, January 9, 2009

Recovery

For me, that is. The economy begins recovery later this Spring.

Regular "thoughtful" posts should resume Monday.

Unemployment Pool

I have been asked to organize a pool for predictions of the peak unemployment number for this business cycle. The contest will be determined from BLS data, so no griping that it's fixed or biased to the low side, please. So far, selections have been 8% (me), 11.5%, 13.45% and 12%. This is open to anyone, but your choice must be posted in the comments. who posts in the comments, I will write them down on a card and a winner will be determined whenever the peak is obviously past.

By the way, BLS data truly IS biased to the low side, as persons in part-time work or who have left the workforce due to futility are not counted as unemployed.

I might give a prize, perhaps a fine WW II style Army helmet. I had bought some for prizes for Dow 15,000, but that might not happen for awhile.

Word of the Day

"Futility" - noun [$10] an interesting usage for variant of the common word, futile.
Futile (adjective) means 1. useless, ineffectual, vain; 2. frivolous, trifling.
Futility (noun) would be the state or quality of being futile.
Sentence: (from H. L. Mencken describing Herbert Hoover) "In the past his futilities were only too often overlooked in the blinding light of his publicity ..."

Interestingly, H. L. Mencken had a very low opinion of Herbert Hoover even in 1928, before the Great Depression. In modern terms, Mencken thought Hoover was a mere resume with no leadership ability. Reading Mencken's concurrent writings about Hoover make me think that many modern revisionist writings of Hoover are wrong.

Another sentence: The futilities of most members of the U. S. Senate becomes glaring as soon as they open their mouths.

61 comments:

Bud said...

is that an 'actual' ww2 helmet ?? or replica

Bud said...

sayin Hoover caused the great depression is sorta like sayin W Bush caused the credit crisis

hogwash

Bunkerman said...

a real helmet, with liner and chinstrap.

I bought them from military surplus.

I keep five for my halftrack squad. I have about five more spares.

Bunkerman said...

The style of helment was used for about 30 years (WW II through Vietnam) so I don't know if these are actually used in WW II, but the style is the correct style) and they are military issue.

Bunkerman said...

Hoover didn't cause it, but did nothing to alleviate it either.

maverick said...

Big 12

Pfffffffffffffffffftttt

Just buy a defense

mfl59 said...

recession my ass.....bull run!!!!

Spin-em said...

who was that someday buying bad news is going to sound silly..lool

Frosty said...

Bunky...what's your thoughts this mortgage cram down plan that allows bankruptcy judges to...well about anything they want...I can see a whole scam industry built around this bs...you need to get your heros under control...tax slaves we shall be.

mfl59 said...

a real buyer does it on dips....3 down in a row bunkerman...you should be loading the boat sir...

Bunkerman said...

True I am now full, mfl. Bought AKS, HMIN, GSI today. Yesterday's dip I boughtr some IDSA, MF. 100% long in Obama Fund.

Bunkerman said...

Mortgage cramdowns trouble me, frosty. I'd like to see the details.

Bunkerman said...

with unlimited cramdowsn, I don't see anyone ever being willling to make mortgage loans, except maybe government.

Prepayments screw you one way, and cramsdown screw you the other.

Could destroy mortgage market for private label lending.

maverick said...

does Bob Stoops know Marv Levy?

Bunkerman said...

actaully I am about 110% long the Obama Fund list, minus a few (mostly restaurants).

Very diversified, but these stocks sure move a lot..

mfl59 said...

atta boy Bunkerman...a market historian like you is aware of the fact that the Dow ent up over 100% in the months following the transfer of power to FDR....

keep this in mind....every 77 years the USA has a great president...Washington, Lincoln, FDR, W......

Frosty said...

Headline numbers looked more benign, but I just got an update from market strategist Bill King noting that without seasonal adjustment, the job loss was 954,000. Also, the "birth/death model" inexplicably created 72,000 jobs in December, which is ridiculous. So you can make the case we lost a million jobs in Decembeer.

Who is in the pool bunky...Spin you and I...is it true that it takes 5 laid off paki's to register one job loss govt data?

Spin-em said...

yes..why is Bud being such an "asshead"(taken from bunks new insult book...page one)

mfl59 said...

die eagles die....noone comes into the meadowlands and pushes the Giants around....at least not twice in the same year....

Bud said...

i'm am extremely busy in the tank.........'cha-ching'.......what's that???.......the sound of another winning trade


thanks jim

Bunkerman said...

mfl is in, too

Bud, pick a number.

I'll keep it open a few days.

Bud said...

was that laid-off paki a joke or soemthin ??? i didn't get it



PS......i have a pool.....how many days it take frosty to come out of the closet ?? 10.5 is the number......i take the under........she's close to cracking

Bud said...

lemme get this right??? someone from the acc takin shots at the big12



are you f'ng serious ? can't believe i'm even acknowledging mav's stupid comment


'get a defense'....pfffffffffft........why don't you acc-fags stop suckin dick???


asshead indeed

Bud said...

'die eagles die '


is that you mern ??

mfl59 said...

mern tougher to sniff out than osama bin laden....

Bunkerman said...

true, I expect the media propagamnda orchestra to change tunes on Jan 20 from "Buddy Can You Spare a Dime" to "Happy Days are Here Again"

maverick said...

hmmmmm Duke #50
Oklahoma #58

defense indeed

1 team in Lil 12 in the top 57 in defense

Texas #19

ACC three in top 20

Lil 12 has three in bottom 10

#111 Iowa ST
#112 Kansas St
#115 Texas A&M

defense indeed

Bud said...

lmaoooooooooooooooo


seemed like mav was waitin for a response.......jumped all over that pitch

Frosty said...

Bumky non poster heads going to explode.

"change tunes on Jan 20 from "Buddy Can You Spare a Dime" to "Happy Days are Here Again"

thought we rally into 1-20, now we rally after 1-20...yet nigga fund a pad of butta...cold meds short circuit that massive brain.

Bunkerman said...

To be more specific, I think we rally into 1/20, then a pullback as the traders (ptui) sell on the event, then a huge rally into spring, then a pullback for a couple months, then a huge rally into year end as the recession ends.


Dow ends year around 14000

;))))

One must have dreams ;)

Bunkerman said...

all this is provided that Ben and Obama continue to read this blog & obey, and Congress doesn't screw it up too badly.

mfl59 said...

"yet nigga fund a pad of butta"

MVP consideration for sure....lmaooooooooo

Bunkerman said...

that must be eubonics. It's a "pat of butter" meaning just a bit; not the whole stick.

Bunkerman said...

I'd better get back to translating this passage from Descartes (from 1637) it begins -

"Le bon sens est la chose du monde la mieux partagée: ...

"Common sense is the thing most evenly distibuted in the world: ... "

Then it goes on in the next paragraph:

"Pour moi, je n'ai jamais présumé que mon esprit fût en rien plus parfait que ceux du commun: ..."

"As for me, I have never presumed that my mind was in any way more perfect than those commonly found: ..."

Je suis pour les gens du commun.

"I am for the common people"

Bud said...

you guys give out mvp awards to singles hitters...........pfffffffffffft


wade boggs indeed

Bud said...

or better........

derek jeter indeed


oh wait..........he's never won the mvp.......and he's a hall of famer ???? are you f'ng kiddin me ??

mfl59 said...

Don't spoil it for me Bunkerman...I was going to translate that same passage tonight by candlelight...

Frosty said...

Bud take the weekend...develop some new material...call ya up next week to the show for a cup of coffee.

Spin-em said...

caught yourself on Wade Boggs didntya assshead

Spin-em said...

PussyGalore still holding his breath on the couch?...afraid t come out to plahaaaay????(Warriors..lol)...sitting in the dark with your Goth outfit??

Bunkerman said...

the trouble with Descartes is that his sentences are as long as paragraphs. Ugh.... all those clauses and pronouns.

Spin-em said...

come onn bunk..throw down an insult word to "jim" from the new book..break the cherry on that thing boy...lol MVP still up for grabs

Bunkerman said...

OK, here's a good acrostic:

Jolthead: A great head, a dolt; a blockhead;

Intermeddler: One that interposes officiously; one who thrusts himself into business to which he has no right

Macaroon: a course, rude, low fellow.

Bunkerman said...

I think in French, the phrase "tête de nœud" applies rather well.

Frosty said...

LMAOOO Bunky...but I think you meant

"he thrusts his business into Bud"

Bunkerman said...

yeah, frosty, I guess that is more polite than his "nœud" ?

;))))))))))))

Spin-em said...

his bniz...looooool

Bud said...

listen guys.....sharkinvesting.com is by far the best service out there for stock winners...............it is timely and very actionable..........it has been very helpful in my trading career and i have been able to put food on my table of it

i'm sorry it didn't work out for you guys.........perhaps you need to look into the mirror instead of blaming others for your failures.........i know when a trade doesn't work......i always blame myself...( mern still blamin bob for his QID trade ???) ......a lesson there for all of you


keep up the good work.......thanks jim!!!!

Bud said...

and that wraps up the mvp voting for this week



talk about givin the business.....holy smokes


'show up for a cup of coffee'

Spin-em said...

career

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

MVP.MVP,MVP

mfl59 said...

"timely and actionable"

lmaooooooooooooooo

yes the card gets swiped on the first day every month.....

Spin-em said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Spin-em said...

sorry about that one Big Al..lol

Frosty said...

wipe the jizz off your puss....yes back to the minors Bud...that was one heck of a swing...OMGLMAOOOOOO

Frosty said...

Have a great weekend bunkerboys...good times

Spin-em said...

MVP......MV my vote....gud weekend fellas..thanks Bunk

Spin-em said...

Mav

mfl59 said...

mern gets my vote....Eagles-Giants and he stays away all week...amazing...

Spin-em said...

Buddy ya run to the bank with that RGLD today?..looool

Frosty said...

Bunky...I have your mortgage cramdown analysis...the XLF breaks 11.50 taking spiddy with it...Mrs B knows, she's the best.

Spin-em said...

pffttt....congrats merny...tough loss to take but had a ball the last 2 years...the best team won....enjoy the ride indeed sir...time to hit the Rock..loool