Thursday, August 13, 2009

Empiricism

Empiricism is the name philosophers give to theories of knowledge (viz, epistemologies) that look to actual facts from senses and the world to access what one knows. When examined deeper, this concept can get complex, but for the use I intend to give it, that definition is good enough.

Viewers and readers of the financial press probably have never heard of this nor seen it in use. That media always seems to rely on mere theories and / or seers to tell us what is happening. Good past performance is not necessary as no one ever checks on whether a theory or a seer was wrong.

Today's FT has a good data point for us. "Germany and France on Thursday delivered a boost to hopes that the eurozone is clawing its way back from recession as the region’s largest members said their economies grew in the second quarter after shrinking for a year.
Robust consumer and public spending - buoyed by large government stimulus programmes - helped both economies grow 0.3 per cent in April, May and June, according to data released by both countries’ statistical offices. "

"The trends surprised economists, who had been expecting both economies to contract again – by 0.3 per cent - after German gross domestic product plummeted 3.5 per cent and French GDP shrank by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter. “The recession has ended. Not just in Germany,” said Jörg Krämer, an economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, adding that the “post-Lehman global confidence shock” had receded and companies appeared to be investing again." [my emphasis]

What does this tell us ?

1. All bearish seers and economic theorists prognosticating more pain and serious declines ahead were wrong.
2. Decoupling is partly happening now. Ten years ago the coupling between other regions and the US was very strong. Now it's much less. Soon it may be nil. It's not a binary, static concept.
3. This blog has prominent readers worldwide [that's a joke!].

Rambo said, "I always believed the mind was the best weapon." This is true. One must hold the financial press and seers to a higher epistemological standard. Empiricism has seen use for about 500 years, perhaps beginning with Galileo. Let's use it. Don't believe anything on the financial press unless they provide some facts and proofs.

Actions

Doing nothing. I'm just riding this bull elephant to the next waterhole. Fido Fund and Krypto Fund have plenty of longs. Of course I wish I had more longs [arghh that July blunder due to distractions and taking counsel of my fears], but I don't and accept that. I do not like to be leveraged or too long when the market has broken out to new intermediate highs. I just like parity then and ride along. On rips up, I'll sell some. On big drops, I'll buy the dips unless circumstances change.

I do not trust Obama and fear that he will not re-appoint Ben. If he replaces Ben with the wrong person, risks of inflation and / or stagnation rise considerably.

Word of the Day

"Vicissitude" - noun [$10]
Vicissitude means 1. the quality of being changeable; mutability; 2. sudden changes or alterations.
Sentence: Economic outlooks over time must endure vicissitudes as people and data are not fixed physical constants. Human economics do change and one must accept that as an axiom. Pundits often can't make two good forecasts in a row as they ignore this simple epistemological truth.

44 comments:

Bud said...

fine piece Bman.......you actually put some thought into today's post........you been mailin it in lately

Bud said...

the worldwide recession seems to be ending........what are the doomsdayers saying now ???


now they say "we will have sluggish low growth for years to come".......ok fine.......but they were saying the world is ending........great depressionII.....armageddon


i clearly recall one doomsdayers words

" the USA is done......stick a fork in her !!!"

Bud said...

f'ng mexican douchebags yesterday


they were throwing trash and debris at the USA players when they got close to the sidelines.........hello mr president......how about some hiroshima and nagasaki action to teach these spic bastards a history lesson

Bud said...

Bman do you think the president should apologize for nagasaki when he goes there in november ??

the lefty liberals in the media are asking him to do it

Bud said...

this pay czar story makes me sick.............f'ng communist


Bman do you think C energy trader andrew hall should get his 100m dollar bonus ?? i say pay the man.......it's a matter for the shareholders.............not the US government


PS......if the store owner doesn't take action if his employees are stealing from him...........should the local police constable interfere ??? i don't think so

Bud said...

Bman enough with the talk about your July sales........it's over......forget about it.....move on......lots of money to be made in the market everyday


we all make bad trades..............i make dozens and dozens every week.......i just keep plugging along lookin for the next trade


well.....not all of us.......frosty has never had a losing trade.....batting 1000....all winners.............f'ng douchebag



PS......still wanna be friends ???

Bunkerman said...

Why apologize for Nagasaki ? The Japs should thank us for it ... it helped end the delusion of Japanese militarism and saved their people from extinction.

Proof of its need: some of the diehards were still fighting on after it. The last bombing in Japan was not Nagasaki, but a conventional bombing about a week later.

Bunkerman said...

Mexico should be embarrassed by their fans behavior.

Bunkerman said...

For the energy trader, I don't know how much he made for C or if their really was a true contract.

If yes, then they have to pay him.

Those "independent" groups of traders are never charged a proper amount for the capital they need or the risks they take. It's a bit of an internal scam.

Bunkerman said...

thanks re the post. Today I got up at a normal time, so had time to think a bit. Lately I've been scrambling.

mfl59 said...

well well well....

retail sales horrid....

jobless claims rise....


recession ending only in sectors that the government is propping up...i.e home sales (tax credit), auto sales (spin's cash for clunkers)....etc....

mfl59 said...

Obama apologized to the Mexican government for such a close game...its not fair you know...

Spin-em said...

maybe US players arent motivated enuff....perhaps a win or we'll hang ya strateegery is whats needed in this case..Sadaam style

Bunkerman said...

and why should US care about a sissy sport like soccer ?

no tackling, hitting, no sticks or clubs, no use of hands, no scoring, etc.

Even field hockey players carry sticks ...

Bunkerman said...

soccer is a game for serfs ...

Spin-em said...

buncha flop artists

OWWWWWWWCH.....down he goes

Bunkerman said...

I'm sure nothing like soccer was played in Sparta ... not even by the Spartan girls (who were trained in athletics nude along with the boys).

Bunkerman said...

[btw, I just finished a fair book titled, "Spartan Women"]

maverick said...

so how are the girls at Michigan State Bman?

Bunkerman said...

lololol mav.

haha Ancient Sparta.

By the way, ancient Sparta was said to have the most beautiful women in ancient Greece.

Bunkerman said...

they did have an "odd" custom - on their wedding night (age 18) they were dressed as boys ...

hmmmm

this is true.

mfl59 said...

Its odd that you made no comment on the retail sales number Bunkerman....nor the jobless claims....

Fair and Balanced my good man....

Don't turn into Mav's hero Larry Kudlow...

Bunkerman said...

some things are so obvious I needn't comment.

mfl59 said...

hahaha


well played sir....

Frosty said...

chekced in on my crackberry 890000000000000000...yep, not one bad trade...and my yhoo hcp, see I'm playin to a +2(+16 when playin money matchs with "friends")...cash for cluckers scam, no credit for a 92' passat to trade up to a 94', bs.

mfl59 said...

Bud why do you keep ducking my questions about your handicap?

Sandbagger indeed...

mfl59 said...

Well done Bunk....looks like rugby will make it into the 2016 Olympics...

oh soccer has always been there....

Bunkerman said...

soccer is there ... along with synchronized swimming, etc.

mfl59 said...

i threw you a meatball down the middle there...no thanks necessary...lol

Frosty said...

are ceremonial burkas an asset class.

Frosty said...

crazy, all it be nasty paki spotted wearing a silk turban and matching thong running from louisville restaurant to restaurant yelling...Rick pass me the pickle.

Spin-em said...

Bud will you be going to Hajj this year?...Do they have a golf course nearby? make sure ya get a tee time ....lotta crazy bastards there this year...

Bunkerman said...

This morning I read about a burqini in Le Monde ... it's a full body swimming suit for the gals.

Got banned ... no swimming fully clothed.

Frosty said...

"Conditions will change and we will correct. It is just a matter of when."...thx jim...such sage advice...pearls of wisdom drop from his mouth like rain from a south alaska thunderstorm.

Bunkerman said...

it's amazing that they pay him for that blather.

Bud said...

HEAT

'nailed it' 'high five'


another monster winner from the tank.......no way i could have ever found it......you know......since i'm 'not too bright'



danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!!

Bud said...

MAIL


'nailed it' 'high five'


now way i could have ever found it on my own......you know.....since i'm 'ignorant'


danke vielmals jim !!!!!!!!!!!!

Bud said...

these turban and burqa jokes are getting old.........they were mildly amusing to begin with..........now they downright boring

Bud said...

frosty why don't you make fun of Bman's trades anymore..........i know you're dyin too


f'ng douchebag......lowlife cumsucking manbeaver licking prick


PS.....still wanna be friends ????

Bud said...

" sal ......why you gotta be so filthy.....vulgar....nasty"


" cuz i'm a nasty motherfucker !! "

Frosty said...

"manbeaver"...LMAOO...that is first for me...oh man LOL

mfl59 said...

while we are on the subject "danke vielmals jim" is getting slightly tedious as well....

"97% cash"

Bunkerman said...

maybe it's tough to mock my trades when I am doing nothing ... except prepare for the canoe trip and read about Sparta & philosophy.

Bunkerman said...

I think French, "merci beaucoup", would be a bit more cultured.