Tuesday, November 24, 2009

To Solve the Twin Deficits

That problem is how to simultaneously reduce the trade deficit and to reduce the US Federal budget deficit. Those problems are connected by the flow of funds to and from overseas: the dollars sent overseas to buy goods (or services) flow back to invest in US $ denominated debt. Some call them "imbalances". Maintaining stability when both flows are large is a problem, as small changes in big numbers are ... big, and cause serious disturbances.

What is Do ?

First, recognize some causes. IF the US economy had full employment, the Federal budget deficit would shrink hugely. Second, US tax policy both taxes employment heavily AND subsidises imports, so we get less employment and more imports than otherwise would be equilibrium.

How is this done ? Social security, Medicare and various unemployment taxes are a very, very high cost to labor, over 15% of gross wages. Add to that the cost of health care benefits. The gross cost probably is over 25%. Under ObamaCare, this cost for using people will grow. Obviously, less US source employment is used for production and US firms place production overseas where possible.

All that labor tax money flows to provide benefits to US workers/people, and is added to the cost of US source goods. So Americans buying US source goods pay a huge added cost, while buying foreign source goods lets them pay NONE. What do we get ? People can buy imports and not pay for those benefits to the people. So the nation's tax policy effectively subsidizes imports, at the expense of US-based production, AND even taxes exports, too, via US source labor taxes.

All these create a huge dis-equilibrium in favor of less jobs, more imports, and less exports. This poor US tax policy supports the twin deficits.

How to Solve the Problem ?

Replace ALL labor taxes - Social Security, Medicare, unemployment and any health care mandates with a single National Sales Tax ("NST"), or call it a value added tax ("VAT") if you wish, on all goods. Employers will see their labor bill reduced hugely, and can hire more. Firms using foreign source labor will have to pay the NST/VST on sales in the US, so will lose that prior advantage (of not paying for US social benefits). US firms will see better profit margins on exports, as they will not have to pay that tax on exports.

American consumers will pay the tax equally on US source goods and imports, but that total amount will go to US benefits to its people. The opposite is true now, as no benefit to the American people flows from use of imports.

This fair tax policy will hugely reduce unemployment and the trade deficit - helping hugely to solve the twin deficits.

By the way, one has to replace ALL labor taxes at once with the NST/VAT, or no one will believe that the change is real and permanent, and that the public will not end up with both taxes. Also, the tax is on goods only: services are labor. The income tax picks those up directly or in the NST/VAT on price of the goods they help produce.

Additional Benefits

The municipal bond freeloaders and cash income persons will have to pay that NST/VAT, too when they spend their money. This improves fairness.

Word of the Day

"Controvert" - verb, transitive [$10]
Controvert means 1. to dispute, deny; 2. argue about, discuss.
Sentence: To controvert that US labor taxes seriously hurt US employment levels is a pretty difficult position to argue.

58 comments:

Bud said...

good morning Bman !!!!!!!


good post..........but once again..........no mention of dollar tankaroo

Bud said...

from wsj today



The proportion of U.S. homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than the properties are worth has swelled to about 23%, threatening prospects for a sustained housing recovery.

Nearly 10.7 million households had negative equity in their homes in the third quarter, according to First American CoreLogic, a real-estate information company based in Santa Ana, Calif





can you say 'double-dip' recession ????



PS.......i'm not in the double-dip camp..............since i think we still in the 'first-dip' ................'the recession is over'


lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Bunkerman said...

that negative equity is a problem - we need some inflation ...

It's not only for people who want to move, but also for all those dopes who took out 5-7 year balloon mortgages to get a lower payment.

Bud said...

this is gettin too easy


just buy the e-minis ( still Z9 frosty) around 10pm every nite..........and sell'em in the morning ...........thanks to dollar tankaroo



retroactive indeed

Bud said...

but unlike the Bman...............i don't like this.............makin money on the back of the dollar tankaroo


this has disastrous consequences for our nation...............hey..............i can make money without the dollar tankaroo..................cuz the way this is goin



can you say 'currency crisis' Bman ??????

Bunkerman said...

I was talking to a friend who was recently in Beijing.

Compared to NYC, prices for similar goods (fine hotels, fine restautants, etc.), Beijing was 1/2.

Same for gifts like pearls, etc. For those, China prices are even cheaper.

So on purchasing power parity, the Chinese currency is grossly undervalued.

Europe is fairly valued, btw, on same measure.

Bunkerman said...

Bud, since all US debt is $ denominated, what's the problem ?

Ditto almost all US imports (oil, stuff from China, etc.)

Spin-em said...

Bman...alota common men have big gains... hangin on to positions hopin to sell after the first so they dont have to pay taxes til Apr 2011...but The Great Satan Barry needs the tax money NOW...Washington and GS thick as thieves.....Do we get an end of year Hellaciuos selloff?(not too early) to shut off xmas shopping..lol... say DEC21st?..lol

Frosty said...

Sal...do you dress like lady gaga when you go clubbing sir.

Bunkerman said...

peopole could buy puts to lock in gains and that could put a lot of downward pressure in Dec..

But lots of those people with gains probably have loss carryforwards from 2008.

Many people got big tax loss sales in 2008.

Might not be a big as you think.

But I stil think the intermediate term top will be a rally just after the jobs numbers really improve, maybe lasting a week or two. Maybe early Dec.

Frosty said...

ppffttt...certain my gardener, barber and slobberingoneeyed brolaw was long SKF last year.

mfl59 said...

"its too easy"

lmaooooooooooooooo

Frosty said...

BA looking 45 before 55.

Bunkerman said...

"I've Heard That Song Before" was a great hit by Harry James with Helen Forrest on vocals, written by Jule Styne and lyrics by Sammy Cahn.

Another fine exmaple of why little great music was recorded after Dec. 31, 1954.

Four great artists combine for a truly great song.

Bunkerman said...

a fitting reply for frosty, too.

see -> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rh0NZa0WMJQ

Frosty said...

"Crazy Train"...written by Ozzy Osbourne, Randy Rhoads and Bob Daisley...from the album Blizzard of Ozz, his first post Black Sabbath work...see that bluff mike matusow. and raise.

Frosty said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MLp7YNTznE&feature=related

Spin-em said...

discount?/variety

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Sl5VurCaIQ

Bunkerman said...

Ozzie can't sing worth a s&^%, the instrumentals sucked and the musics was crappy.

No comment on the lyics, perhaps some goodness there, but I couldn't understand half of them sice his voice was so poor as he was screeching.

a D on an absolute scale.

Bunkerman said...

That African folk dance spin posted ...

crappy words, crappy voice, crappy instrumentals, crappy lyrics.

F.

Bunkerman said...

Here's Judy Garland recorded in 1950 of a great 1930s song by Harold Arlen.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U-rBZREQMw

Bud said...

Frosty............do you dress like liberace when you go cruising sir??

Spin-em said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4327HSXY56k&feature=related

Bud said...

well Bman maybe this will help you



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxYSduRES1o

Spin-em said...

World War II, 1941 – 1945 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Second Battle of the Atlantic, 1941 - 1945
Pacific War, 1941 - 1945
African Theatre, 1942 - 1943
European Theatre, 1942 - 1945
Korean War, 1950 - 1953
South Korean Campaign, 1950 - 1953
North Korean Campaign, 1950 - 1953
Lebanon Conflict, 1958 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Blue Bat, 1958
Cuban Conflict, 1961 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Bay of Pigs Invasion, 1961
Vietnam War, 1962 - 1975 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Laotian Civil War, 1962 - 1973
Cambodian Civil War, 1969 - 1970
Second Dominican Republic Conflict, 1965 - 1966
Operation Powerpack, 1965 - 1966
Second Korean War, 1966 - 1976
Contra War, El Salvador, 1981 - 1990
Libya Conflict, 1981 - 1989 (time span of U.S. involvement)
First Action in the Gulf of Sidra, 1981
Second Action in the Gulf of Sidra, 1986
1986 bombing of Libya, 1986
Third Action in the Gulf of Sidra, 1989
Grenada Conflict, 1983 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Urgent Fury, 1983
Iran–Iraq War, 1987 - 1989 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Earnest Will, 1987 - 1988
Operation Prime Chance, 1987 - 1989
Operation Eager Glacier, 1987
Operation Nimble Archer, 1987
Operation Praying Mantis, 1988
Second Panama Conflict, 1989 - 1990 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Just Cause, 1989 - 1990
Persian Gulf War, Iraq, 1991 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Desert Shield, 1991
Operation Desert Storm, 1991
Iraq Conflict, 1991 - 2003 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Provide Comfort, 1991 - 1996
Operation Northern Watch, 1997 - 2003
Operation Southern Watch, 1992 - 2003
Operation Desert Fox, 1998
Operation Southern Focus, 2002 - 2003
Somali Civil War, 1992 - 1994 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Provide Relief, 1992
Operation Restore Hope, 1992 - 1994
First Haitian Rebellion, 1994 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Operation Uphold Democracy, 1994 - 1995
Yugoslav wars, 1994 - 1999 (time span of U.S. involvement)
Bosnian Conflict, 1994 - 1995
Kosovo Conflict, 1997 - 1999
[edit] 21st Century
War on Terrorism, 2001 - present
Operation Enduring Freedom - Afghanistan 2001 - present
Operation Enduring Freedom - Philippines 2002 - present
Operation Enduring Freedom - Horn of Africa 2002 - present
Operation Iraqi Freedom, 2003 - present
War in North-West Pakistan, 2004 - present
War in Somalia, 2006 - 2009
Operation Enduring Freedom - Trans Sahara 2007 - present
War in Somalia, 2009 - present
Second Haitian Rebellion, 2004 (time span of U.S. involvement)
United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti, 2004 - present

Bunkerman said...

very enjoyable, spin - fun. I think the Trapp family on Sound of Music was a bit better

had Julie Andrews, too.

Bunkerman said...

quite a list, spin.

Hmm maybe time to stay home awhile after finishing current business if Afghanistan ?

Spin-em said...

yes who says we dont export anymore?

Spin-em said...

A House bill still being drafted aims to raise $150 billion each year to pay for new jobs by taxing Wall Street traders. Under a bill being drafted by Democratic Reps. Peter DeFazio (Ore.) and Ed Perlmutter (Colo.), the sale and purchase of financial instruments such as stocks, options, derivatives and futures would face a 0.25 percent tax. The bill, a copy of which was obtained by The Hill, is titled: ?Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act of 2009?. Half of the $150 billion in tax revenue would go toward reducing the deficit, while the other half would be deposited in a ?Job Creation Reserve? to support new jobs. The job fund would be available to offset the additional costs of the 2009 highway bill and other legislation that creates jobs.

Spin-em said...

another Saturday Night Special vote.....theyre jammiing everything they can..while they can....

Bunkerman said...

that title say it all -- boob bait for homo boosoisie to raise campaign money.

When Schumer co-sponsors, I'll worry.

Spin-em said...

naahhh..it'll never happen

Frosty said...

Defazio...four more years...four more years.

Bud said...

dems witing the bill



http://thehill.com/homenews/house/69295-dems-push-wall-street-150b-stock-tax



still think it's 'boob bait for bubbas' Bman ???

Spin-em said...

sorry I cant trust a man who has everything in his bunker but the essential ingredient for the existence of life ...(river run..plenty of time)...lol...kiddin bunk (spins about smiles)

Bunkerman said...

well, I do have emergency water in small amount - sterilized and sealed.

good for a few days only.

Spin-em said...

Ok..I feel a lil better..lol

Frosty said...

someone weak and unprepared...I think so.

Spin-em said...

doesnt anybody do anything thats just good for America anymore??..Its always WE vs THEM..never US..pffttt makes me fn sick.....

Frosty said...

I try daily to excile Sal to couchtarica with that other flaazzhole I wrecked...this public service annoucement brought by the team to re-elect Dafazio.

Spin-em said...

CUSE #9...WE'RE BAAACK BABY!!!

mfl59 said...

Hey Bud DeFazio a fellow paesan...paesans gotta stick together....get on board son...

Bunkerman said...

hmm

paesano - 1. village, country, rustic; 2. m. villager, fellow townsman; 3. countryman, peasant.

almost time to this PM Italian lesson.

Bunkerman said...

plural is paesani, btw.

female singular would be paesana.

Spin-em said...

Cuse going deep in the madness this year...get ready for the pool Mav..Frosty struckout and mfl played it like kindygartnn...spin post office laughin stock..lool

mfl59 said...

lmaooooooooooooooooooooo

well played spin...

Cuse football is no joke either...man are they tough in the dome...kind of like going into Ames...

Frosty said...

LMAOO...Clemson cost me big time...as did the other dogs in that conf...oragnemen ok, orangecats...ppfffttttt...Mav led me to slaughter....newman threepeat indeed.

Spin-em said...

thats true..lmaooooo Clemson on every sheet

mfl59 said...

Navy SEALs have secretly captured one of the most wanted terrorists in Iraq — the alleged mastermind of the murder and mutilation of four Blackwater USA security guards in Fallujah in 2004. And for their trouble, three of the SEALs, members of the Navy's elite commando unit, are now facing criminal charges, sources told FoxNews.com.

The three have refused non-judicial punishment — called an admiral's mast — and requested a trial by court-martial.

Ahmed Hashim Abed, whom the military code-named "Objective Amber," told investigators he was punched by his captors — and he had the bloody lip to prove it.

Now, instead of being lauded for bringing to justice a high-value target, three of the SEAL commandos, all enlisted, face assault charges and have retained lawyers.

mfl59 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mfl59 said...

what is happening to ur great country men?

Spin-em said...

war tax
trader tax
take a crap tax
say douchebag tax
dog/cat tax
words on bunky blog tax
heartbeat tax

Spin-em said...

IM MAD AS HELL..AND IM NOT GUNNA TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!!

mfl59 said...

"oh you have a bloody lip? that is unacceptable...we will prosecute those damn SEALS..."

Frosty said...

Sal, you ever share a budlime with Ahmed Hashim Abed sir?

Spin-em said...

instead of ending wars...we tax..I mean where's our soldiers gunna work when they come home?? keep em shooting at an empty mountainside

Bunkerman said...

that idiot W let that BS start in Iraq ... prosecuting soldiers for fighting a war and now worse.

mfl59 said...

"tax your way to prosperity"

yes that should work...

my new SPX target is 2000 by 2011