Markets
Yesterday's ringing rejection of sub 10,000 territory of the Dow seems likely, barring new "news", to be an intermediate term bottom. The bears found few US sellers lower and upon that miss, buyers - short covering and nibblers following this blog's recent moves ;) - ran the table.
Euro-fears still abound but what else is knew ... or different from what has already been experienced ? The world seems OK except for Korea. European companies can still make plenty of money selling goods in the US and in the emerging markets. Obviously the Euro is now dead for a decade as a reserve currency. That realization simply means that perception matches reality. This site exposed the delusion of the near-term idea of the Euro getting that status months ago.
Fears of the dollar losing its position in the world - so prevalent late last year - are now shown to be the silly blather that this site called them at the time.
Korea
Why is North Korea so bold now compared to a year ago ?
The answer is Barry's big mouth. Barry (aka Obama) changed US nuclear policy recently to state the US will not use nuclear weapons first. Sure, he added some qualifiers, but who believes those ? Not Kim Jong Il.
If North Korea attacks the South, Barry will have been the enabler.
Derivatives
A famous quote from T. S. Eliot is "We had the experience, but missed the meaning ... "
That seems likely coming true in the derivatives regulation fight in DC - at least it applies to Barney Frank. What makes a bank "Too Big to Fail " ? The answer is the counterparty risks. What are the biggest of those other than mostly overnight trades ? Derivatives.
Derivatives can persist for years and extend to all other financial institutions. Breaking that link is absolutely crucial to prevent one firm from dragging down the rest. Ring-fencing a bank's derivatives operations would do that. Barney the Boob wants to cut that part from the bill. That's simply foolish and exemplifies the T. S. Eliot quote.
Word of the Day
"Aporia" - noun [$10]
Aporia means 1. Rhetorical. an expression of doubt; 2. a doubtful matter; a perplexing difficulty.
Sentence: [T. S. Eliot quoted in "The Cambridge Companion of T. S. Eliot", page 48] "the old aporia of Authority v. Individual Judgement". That phrase uses aporia in the sense of "a perplexing difficulty". Fraternal Libertarianism resolves that aporia by limiting regulation and Authority to be used only on (not by) the ruling classes (aka the rich & powerful).
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
16 comments:
Bunk..do you ever have a sell signal besides sell high?
I start selling down when the market approaches intermediate highs.
As it extends, I sell more.
those sale $ go to cash so I have it on pullbacks.
Anytime an asset class gets overloaded by more than 5%, I cut it back.
So thsoe sell signals are relative to other classes.
I get that....but no say sell below 50dma type deal to protect the 97%?
So you sell your winners to fund your losers?
these are all mutual funds or ETFs
Not really, mfl. The money goes into cash as a way station. I then buy on pullbacks. It might be the same thing I sold higher.
You guys saw all my selling approaching S&P 1200. That's what I was doing.
For things like TIPS, I just cut back when they get way up there.
And re-buy on pullbacks when long term TIPS has real yield at least 2.25%
btw. some of that 97.5% is fixed income - they don't move much. It's really 75% stocks & TIPS.
Well done Bunk...those were good sales indeed...just when the media was getting all hyped up, you dumped....
Did Mrs. B flip CLF or?
eliminate, even a dramatic reduction of derivatives...they head for new mud holes...they lever up stuff, careful what you wish for...oh merny where are you.
Ms. B is not a flipper ... she'll hold that for a long time.
I think (hope ?) no new mud holes because of broader new paoers of Fed.
Also, it will take a few decades for this to be forgetten.
hope your right indeed...I would rather have the beefers knocking each other around with paper than stuff...of course, I take the side of the common man.
http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2005/11/22/PH2005112202182.jpg
DAY 19
Bud the C taken hostage
Bunky...do you plan to increase your TITS position sir.
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