Thursday, August 4, 2011

Lies in "Science"

Since the 1960s, scientists have been on a money chase for grants from the Federal government.  They do it for their own careers and because the universities want to put their snouts in the trough.  Truth matters little; people publish what ever sells.  The salesman's rule applies:  Tell'em what they want to hear, sell'em what they want to buy."  And the government bureaucrats want answers that give them more power.

The entire human-caused global warming campaign is a sordid example of this.  It's a colossal fraud to get more money, jobs & tenure to whomever is a good liar for "the cause".

A reliable site and a very capable researcher finally obtained the raw, unadjusted data for ALL temperature stations in the world for ALL times that such exists.  He analyzed it, looking very hard at that data's internal variability.  That's what any GOOD researcher would do first:  determine what that data's statistics can or cannot say about any trends.  I learned this at MIT's Sloan School in the statistics class and in the forecasting from two fine professors.  Look at the data!!!

What does one see from the raw data?

Here are two posts from a fine website written by a talented theoretical physicist (and talented number-cruncher), formerly of Harvard and now in his native Czech Republic.

http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/hadcrut3-31-of-stations-saw-cooling.html

http://motls.blogspot.com/2011/08/global-mean-temperature-since-1706.html

"Those are just natural variations that Nature contains and everyone who wants to understand the climate and the weather should first learn something about the natural variability that the changing weather brings to various places of the globe - as well as their average."

There is nothing statistically significant in ANY of the claims about recent increases in global warming.  The entire movement is an exercise in data-mining to support a political agenda ... and to get the money from the grants.  The scientists pushing these claims are just like patent medicine hawkers - willing to say anything to get the money.

Whatever trends exist after normal variability is eliminated are the century + changes caused by changed in the Sun's activity levels over many decades or centuries.

All the models are wrong and the billions wasted on that has been flushed down the toilet.  Carbon dioxide is an effect, not a cause:  Image a bobber on a fishing line in a lake.  It will move with the current and small waves, but the bobber does not cause the movement.

The cause of long term temperature variations on the earth is small changes in cloud cover (intrinsically water vapor) in turn caused by changes in cloud formation processes caused by changes in cosmic rays hitting the earth, which in turn are modulated by the solar wind and magnetic field, which are directly connected to solar activity levels in the active regions of the Sun.  Yes, that's a long chain, but nature is full of long chains; in fact, all nature IS a long chain of connected actions.

Measurement of the carbon 14 isotope on the earth exist covering about 50,000 years.  The carbon 14 level is strongly correlated with many measures of temperature.  And carbon 14 IS created by cosmic rays.  Why are these two measurement strongly correlated?  BECAUSE THE SAME THING IS CAUSING BOTH, NAMELY THE COSMIC RAY CHANGES CAUSED BY SOLAR ACTIVITY CHANGES.

What we have is a physical process of causation AND measured data showing the effects exists.  That is scientific PROOF and is TRUTH.

Word of the Day

Today there are two.

"Warp" - noun [$10] as used in weaving
Warp means the threads strtched lengthwise in a loom to be crossed by a weft.
"Weft" - noun [$10]
Weft means 1. a. the threads woven across a warp to make a fabric; 1. b. yarn for these; 1. c. a thing woven; 2. filing strips in basket weaving.
Sentence: Just as one needs both warp and weft to make woven cloth, so does one need both a physical process and data correlation to prove a scientific claim.

32 comments:

Bud said...

Bman do you think the Euro will survive this crisis ?? will the Euro be a currency in 2 years ?

Bud said...

Bman is the US headed for a double-dip recession ??

Bud said...

don't be fooled by the dollar strength this morning...................it's still a garbage currency


'keep firing Ben'

Bunkerman said...

re Euro, yes and yes.

Re double dip, no.

Bud said...

rumors floating that the next QE will involve Ben purchasing mortgages and single family homes.............disgusting.........surely the Bamn agrees with me here


'keep firing Ben'

Spin-em said...

didn't anyone like my

HIT EM AGAIN BATTLESHIP BEN....HARDER....HARDER!!

lool

1 banana $30 at Giant??....short monkeys

Spin-em said...

patrick??

Frosty said...

QEIII QEIII QEIII in case you forgot old man ;).....noticed fewer posts ever year and the trend continues ....weak and feeble?.....FYI Mrs B frostman is fit and able , your the best!

Bunkerman said...

No QE3.

Ben has done all he can; it's time for others in the administration to do the right this.

Lower home lending standards; the collateral is obviously a lot better at these prices.

Bunkerman said...

That simple move would hugely help family cash flows.

Bunkerman said...

lol spin, if Ben does any more firing from his battleship, he's just turning the dirt over & over. Seflation seems dead, teh dollar is closer to fair value vs. emergin markets, anyone getting a loan can make big money, etc.

Bunkerman said...

Kratft is such a joke - another example of incompetent management getting overpaid recylcing the same old mistakes.

Bunkerman said...

" noticed fewer posts ever year and the trend continues "

geez frosty, you missed my announcement late March that I will only write a post when I am motivated to say something.

Otherwise, it's just word of the day.

Frosty said...

word of the day "fed futures"...let me use it...fed futures are pricing in QEIII QEIII QEIII ;)

Frosty said...

DNDN atta boy danimal...no wonder Sal is so grummmmmpppyyyyyy...thx jim

Spin-em said...

whay aren't you motivated Bunk???

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm looks like Ms. Market wants to hit my S&P lower range for 2011 of 1200.

Bunkerman said...

I am very motivated for things other than writing; I've written so much that my good ideas are out there already.

I'm still thinking of taking some of my better writings, re-working them a bit and putting them into a printed pamphlett.

Frosty said...

time to buy some GS....I know Mrs B is with me...is lloyd smashing eurotrashers...I think so...."book value"

Frosty said...

GS book 133.94...have a milk bone Krypto...good doggie

Bunkerman said...

Hmmm ... everything is down - stocks, gold, oil, corn, etc..

I guess some bigtime beefer slaughters are going on

Thir year was alrady crummy and is now a nightmare.

No paychecks for the near term.

aw, shucks.

That herd need thinning ... major league gutting. Way too much money is hot money in beefers. Gut them all !!!

Bunkerman said...

hmm I had written that GS was going thru book and I might consider it then.

Nope.

The old GS is long dead ... little real investment banking ... just a trading house of overpaid ex-BSDs.

It's not worth book.

Spin-em said...

T2108..15.50

Frosty said...

PG VZ ED sometimes you just have to say wtf...Krypto knows what I'm talkinbout.

Frosty said...

Of course Bunky would rather pay BK to hold his "large cash position"...one year T's you're paying uncle sam, oh my.....LOL

Bunkerman said...

Krypto did some buying at 1250 a couple days ago.

She will buy again when the time or price is right.

Watch out for that PG ... they've made some dumb moves recently ... Mrs. B sold them in her sales near the top.

Spin-em said...

Bunky typing like Shakeys pizza today....never seen that before...

Spin-em said...

Krypto buying was yesterdaaaay.....ITS IN THE PAMPHLET!!!....lol

Bunkerman said...

PMI cratering ...

Guess we're back to 1980 mortgage standards

actually tighter

Bunkerman said...

yeah, yesterday's close. Did a good bit. Oh well, even a dog can't be perfect ;)

Bunkerman said...

when I type fast (such as on a quick visit to the office to read comments), my accuracy goes into the toilet.

Back to my Danish study ...

Interesting language ...

Bunkerman said...

Ms. Market wants to kiss my year low guess-timate (1200) as soon as possible ... must have been irresistable.

Krypto will have to work tomorrow morning.