Monday, August 20, 2007

Monday Review

Babblevision must really have a hard time booking US guests on its early AM show, "Worldwide Exchange" - a very good show normally; they have Sutty on again ... babbling nonsense.

S&P cash is up to the 200 DMA. There is lots of resistance overhead. An Elliott Wave ABC major correction has been completed. Interestingly, the Russell 2000 shows the most relative strength and has a pending W bottom pattern in place. A couple closes over 800 would confirm that.

Countrywide reversed course and is now laying off people ... uh ... what a surprise! I still think they are doomed - perhaps they'll be acquired now.

WSJ has a long story about how the Fed made it's decision last Friday - obviously they have good sources involved in it. Uh ... I didn't see any mention that the Fed read this blog, though :-( Too bad, it might have saved them a lot of anguish ;-)

Why should I canonize these guys? Phooey! They're my age and were educated similarly to me - or worse. And some were in my class in college. I have high standards. If I could figure it out as an outsider, just reading and thinking, why does it take them 10 days to realize they screwed up? All they had to do to catch up was read this blog ;-))))

I'll keep kicking their butts until they get it right :-))

PS: We watched the movie, "Semi-Tough" last night. It's a hilarious parody of all the self-help fads in America in the early 1970s. Check it out, if you've never seen it.

PPS: It is interesting that this funding panic originated in Europe. I guess many of those highly rated MBS and CDO classes with some subprime exposure were sold overseas to small banks in Europe. And many small European banks fund with commercial paper. So when fear spread, they were unable to roll the paper. The ECB came to the rescue to prevent many bank failures. Commercial paper is a very dangerous funding source - it must be backed up with irrevocable bank lines.

P^3S: Odd. The blog is very slow in posting this. I wrote it about 5AM EDT.

23 comments:

Bud said...

Next 2 weeks big-time vacations. So i think market could be queit. Too bad. I luv it when beefers play ping pong.......oh well.

Bud said...

Semi tough. Is that with burt reynolds? I never seen it....i will.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...so we have put in a bottom is that correct?

Bud, where is the list?

Bunkerman said...

Yes, Burt Reynolds, Kris Kristofferson, Jill Clayburgh.

Bunkerman said...

that's my opinion, Frosty. A bottom. Unless the Fed double-crosses us.

A re-test at some point likely. I'll try to get my second 1/3 add in then.

October looms. Last 1/3 goes in late October.

Bud said...

Fed double cross? What does that mean? Huh?????????

Bunkerman said...

LOW's numbers were OK in the current Q ended July 31. If the economy was rolling over, it should have shown up, imho.

Bunkerman said...

A Fed double cross is if they DO NOT cut rates in September meeting OR signal a cut, imho.

It's a huge double cross if they maintain an inflation bias.

Bud said...

A double cross is when you trick someone. The fed has not given any indication or signal they are goona cut the fed funds rate. Just cuz the babies on wall street are crying for one doesn't make it a double cross if they don't get one.

PS. As i expected it's real boring today. Where are the beefers?

Bud said...

Frosty i had a rough weeknd. I'm pretty beat up. Don't think i looked at 1 chart this weekend.

Bud said...

Personally i agree with mern. We are headed towards a recession. And that is the reason Fed is gonna cut rates. This economy gonna slow down big time. LOW....lmaoooooooooooooo

Bud said...

My thoughts on the economy have ZERO to do with my trading. I am a pure 100% momentum trader. I trade the direction of the market.
Virtual indeed.

maverick said...

On the Bud, Mern wagon myself. Just a view on the economy also, always looking for the mo + or -.

Frosty said...

Bunerkman....tracking any elephants this morning....see any fresh prints?

Bunkerman said...

I don't see much action or elephants stomping.

They might be exhausted.

You Florida guys are such bears. Sheesh.

Bunkerman said...

I just want to figure out the strong groups and a few strong stocks for the next big move up [as I see the future]. No four letter stocks need apply unless a big cap tech. I have new long term money to put to work in mid-September and in October.

So any pullback to retest is fine - gives me a lower entry price.

Bud said...

lmaooooooooo....'bears'

Frosty said...

GS is holding 170...keeping my eye on the devil Bunkerman...either side is fine with me Bud, but this is a bottom only should the devil say so.

Bud said...

What is the significance of 170 frsoty?

Bud said...

Are you talkin about pinning again?


lmaoooooooooooooo

Bud said...

Looks like the real buyers gettin to work.


lmaooooooooooooo

Bunkerman said...

Correct, Bud. You're learning ... slowly ;-) Real buyers do it on dips.

Frosty said...

Bunkerman...where are all the real sellers today?