Big reversal yesterday - the S&P closed green after touching 1370 intraday. Volume was very high. Trend reversals have often occurred with similar patterns in price and volume. The real buyers likely scooped up stock at the 10% correction level, and the virtual shorts covered when the selling momentum dried up.
So that's a new "Day 1" in a prospective rally count. We need a big up day after Day 4 on higher volume to confirm the rally.
BAC is setting up a small H&S bottom pattern - needs a couple closes over 50.2. C and JPM bounced strongly, as did MS. Afterhours, HPQ had strong earnings and raised guidance.
In yesterday's comments, I mentioned a small silver buy and a CSCO add.
I didn't pull the trigger on buy#2 per yesterday's "time diversification" posting since the market was recovering and I figured I wouldn't get a price close to S&P 1370 at the close. That proved correct. So I'm still waiting.
Japan markets were crushed overnight - probably beefers reacting to the yen craziness, or locals getting margin calls.
PS: Fed cuts discount rate 50 bps to permit funding of ANY mortgage collateral. Very early pre-market reversed huge from down big in early futs to up huge. Beefer shorts are being grilled.
PPS: I might pull the trigger on my buy #2 on any day with a dip, since the Fed seems friendlier now and not "completely" wrong-headed. Yes, I let policy changes & long-term thinking affect my tactics, as any long term investor should.
About Me
- Bunkerman
- I have a pioneer mentality. My wife & I live in the woods - neighbors aren't visible except slightly in winter. Our "bunker" - hehe, really a fine home & barn - has plenty of security. We have four dogs: Krypto (age 9, Kelpie), Ava (age 13, Rat Terrier), Sky (Kelpie, age 5) and Lucky Star (age 1, kelpie). I don't take crap from anyone anymore, having enough resources & gear stocked up to survive in any circumstance. I have three degrees from Harvard including a Ph. D. in a physical science, and an MS in Management from MIT. I worked as an investment banker for about 25 years, mainly in secured finance, at three major Wall Street firms and for the last 17 years with my partners at our own firm. I'm semi-retired now, managing some private corporations and business interests and doing my own trading & investing. This is not to boast, but to give you an idea I know a little about some subjects from experience. The photo is my 1943 M16 half-track which I am restoring. These armored vehicles were ubiquitous in the US Army in World War II and Korea. It's driveable.
98 comments:
What the hell are you talkin about B'man? 'real buyers scooped up'...? Huh? That sure felt like an elephant stampede as you like to say. Wow...these real buyers are so smart. They knew market was gonna correct exact 10% . Sheesh.
Here' the truth. The market doesn't care. Long only buyers - real, fake, virtual, or whatever -have gotten annilitated last 4 weeks. These so called 'real buyers' ...are they same ones that been telling me last 30 days every day is a buying opportunity? Cuz if they have been doin as they say.....they been averaging down and are gettin crushed.
Anecdotaly.........many traders i personally know or work with ........bought stocks aggressively midday yesterday. Believe me, these aren't the so called 'real buyers' that Bman likes to talk about.
Of course I did many trades myself yesterday. And i dumped alot of stocks at the close - i am being very very cautious with overnite long exposure these days . In fact been basically 60-80% short and the rest cash for weeks now.
Bman doesn't like my 'type' of traders. He thinks we should all buy and hold. Luckily he doesn't get to make the rules. This is america.
Bman you get the military channel? I was watchin a show on WW1. Interesting. I'm sure you would like that channel.
Mike mussina got tattooed last night. Sweet. Sox extend lead 1/2 game without even playing.
die yankees die !!!!!!!
Yesterday i think was also my highest trading volume for the year. Played alot of ping pong. Outrageous!!! Guys like me should not be allowed in the equity markets!!!
Lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Looks like the Duke brothers not the only ones who got margin calls. I'm hearing thru the grapevine of some guys i used to work in big trouble.
Don't you know how to read a daily chart yet, Bud? It's obvious that real buyers pulled bids, then put then in at about 5% down and 10% down. They didn't "know" the market was goin that low, that's where they "chose" to bid as it dropped. If the market hadn't gotten that low and started rising, they would have had to chase.
Sheesh.
Asset allocators like me, if they were more nimble, were doing it yesterday.
Maybe I'll get some on a re-test.
I have many tapes of WW I - they are great; might be same as what you are watching.
Yes, I get the military channel. I need a digital Tivo to tape those - gotta get one soon.
Wow. Just noticed yesterdays massive volume in BAC.
One thing about being an investment banker for years is that I had to deal directly with real buyers - people at big institutions that bought the paper and didn't trade it much. So I learned how they think and what they do.
I had to negotiate with them, too, on terms, so I know those can be very important at time - deal breakers. And I had to explain things to them all the time.
Hmmm ... and dealing with big traders on the desks - golly, they always wanted to know WHO was buying & selling - a beefers or a "real buyer"
I am sure about that Bman. But you are forgetting one thing. There has been an explosion in hedge funds last few years. SAC capital is a beefer according to you. They have a phenomenal record this decade. I am sure these 'so called' real buyers would luv to have SAC's record. I am also sure that they would prolly buy if stevie cohen thought it was gud enuff for his clients.
SAC charges i believe 50% performance fees ( + mgmt fee). But he won't take any new monies. Guys breakin down his door to get in. He really must suck.
re Cohen, I'm sure that GS and others try to frontrun him if they can figure out what he's dong ;-))
And if he's selling they mark him down.
Gosh, out of 7,000 beefers, a few [5? 10?] would be great over time just from the numbers trying.
That's part of the beefer scam/delusion that sucks in the dumb rich to those other 6,995 beefers
lolol hmmmm the trader on Babblevision blaming the .. uptick rule. He seemed to know that he's talking about - that it scares buyers.
Bunkerman right again!!!
beefer scam/delusion
lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooo
It may scare buyers.......no argument there. But....don't be such pussies. If you think the stock is cheap fundamentally...buy it. How come there is no tick rules for shorts? Don't shorts get scared? Gimme a f'ng break.
One thing these last 4 weeks has taught me. Bears were crying alot when the market was goin to highs. But these bulss are bigger cry babies. Plus they want government and regulatory intervention to help them. I say fuck'em. Let the free market decide who wins and who loses.
mommy mommy!!...bring back the uptick rule!!! the shorts are knocking my stox down!!!
roflmao
Bolling sold his FXY.....
uh ... I (for one perhaps) was ranting about the uptick rule and beefers and trading funds and derivatives and programs trades WHILE my stocks were going up!
I knew from experience what could happen when the pendulum went the other way. Ilived through the crash in 1987 and the wild swings in the debt markets in 1990-91.
Spin ....do you only look for 'gap fill' trades?
Lolololol
Bolling pumps XLF
This has been the Bolling report
Lol spin.
Discount rate cut........satisfied now Bman?
enjoy Frosty
IWM daily trendline going back to 04 holds......good news for tankers
Punish the shorts Ben.....
sigh ... bunkerman right again.
Fed cuts discount rate. They should have cut last Tuesday. Ben is no god, but seems able to learn from his errors.
real buyers are rewarded again!!!
Not satified. They should cut overnight rate to 4.5% to 4.% (+200-250 over core PCE yoy inflation of 1.9%) AND keep discount ratre at overnight rate + .25%.
But it's a start.
Lmaoooo...real buyers
Kudlow will have a red,white,and blue Yankee Doodle outfit on tonight...including top hat
I guess Ben was actually workin at his nantucket vacation home. Come on Bman......you shud be happy today.
That was a good call/analysis from Kudlow. Even I will concede that.
happier, but not "happy" - not until they do what I say and think, Bud.
Trading curbs? what for? who are they protecting now Bman?
wake up frsoty!!!!
lolol curbs in. Why are there curbs on the upside???
lololol ;-)))))))))))))
trading curbs not helping the real buyers...last time we hit them on the upside we were down for days, broke support and alomost lost the tape for good.
Good job on CSCO frsoty. I kicked mine out the close yday. Virtual indeed.
lmaoooooooooooooo
CSCO....I had a little trouble sleeping last night...haven't made a trade in that size all year...sold a little this morning so I could exhale...Spinny my insperation, he is a rock under fire.
thanks for mentioning CSCO - I got a fine add on that long term position thanks to the mention.
Ben just went birdie-eagle-par-par to start his mornign round....
Already sold some CSCO frsoty? You'll never become a 'real buyer' with such a quick trigger.
lmaoooooooooo
Lol mfl.....market better turn else the cry babies will be waiting for him at the turn.....cut more!!!!
curbs...I could just scream...Bunkerman how do you feel about the use of colorful language in your blog?
Why should today's real buyers barge in & buy whle the panicked bears are covering? They should be smart & wait for a dip. The Fed policy has come towards reality. There will be plenty of good entries for the next big move up.
In limited amounts in appropriate situations, I don't mind "colorful" language - good Anglo-Saxon words.
Spin....is the S and p gonna fill the gap today? He is my 'fill the gap' specialist.
I'll stick to phooey, golly, gosh, etc. myself. I'm trying to curse less. But when the stress is up bigtime, I'm one of the best.
EBAY 33.63...won't fall behind.
I try to behave here myself..........i know i use the F word sometimes. But when i talk about the KKK....uh ....i mean GOP ....hard to control myself.
Is EBAY darkside? sheeesh...thanks for being so clear
real sellers seem to be in control
sorry Bud, it was a buy....ops expo pressure not going away...my thought is we get some put buyer hang over next week an some lift...testing the 50 sma in the index from below seems reasonable.
lmaoooooooooooooo real sellers
I think it's not real sellers, just the real buyers kept their bids low. Shorts covering cause the rip up early.
DEAN anyone getting long? hearing could be cat 5 by the weekend....UNG NGAS FUEL GMXR the plays Bud? where is the list?
Bunkerman...you forgot to note those firken' trading curbs stopped your bull team from steam rolling the bears.
"fed cut pre market to get the biggest bang for their buck"..Santelli......Bub..pffttt
ELON 22.51 add...buying Bud....not going short....strikes in play 22.50-25.00...should have a shot at 25 next week. over 25.80 could test 28....unless the trading curbs killed the bull move.
Rofl frsoty...those darn trading curbs!!
PS.. bring back the uptick rule!
lmaooooooooo
Wow Bman. You sre so smart when it comes to trading. Please let me know if you do a seminar or class. I wud luv to attend. 'real buyers kept their bids low'............pfffffffft
PS.....and if the market goes up....Bman says it real buyers scooping it up....wow ....real buyers are geniuses
uh .. Bud ... real buyers aren't "trading" so don't have "trading seminars".
All they want to do is buy up cheap stock to hold awhile. Notice the word, "cheap".
Sheeeesh.........jeff macke sayin Fed 'intentionally' cut today to 'punish the shorts'. Macke and Spin both sayin that. Now i know it's nonsense.
Spinny...you want to bitch slap him or will you allow me?
'Spinny'....that sounds like a girls name.
I think they might have gotten calls from big banks for help in funding asset-backed commercial paper. That was a problem the last day or two and the other liquidity they wer probviding was not going to help there.
It's just the nature of Fed action to hurt the shorts - I doubt if Fed type even' know much about that.
It took 6 1/2 hours today...but finally a post from Bman i agree with.
Bub to bad you didn't agree with Spinny, you wouldn't be as nasty today if you had. hanging curve off the wall...he slides under the tag...three bagger.
WSJ says Euro-banks can't sell all Euro CP coming due - not even close. That's a problem over there. ECB is going to have to keep adding liquidity becuase the CP probably has backup bank lines of credit.
Uh Frosty, I hope you went home flat in BAC ;-)
Buds such a pussy
never would say it in person.
cuz if he said it..
and I had him in my sight...
BOOM...BOOM
(everybody!!!)
OUT GO THE LIGHTS!!!!
lmaoooooooo
Bunkerman...no BAC short...I just wanted a rally rant out of you and some support to the bull case...was looking to get a rise out of you for some luck...I had no hedges left and was so long I was ready to hit the keg in the middle of the trading day.
Princeton still ranks ahead of Harvard for the #1 college nationally...Harvard...pfttt
Sorry for bein nasty today frosty. But Bman irritated me early with his ridiculous garbage .....and the Klan about to castrate Vick any moment. So i have been provoked.
PS...No way i wud call spin a girl in person............unless she looked like one.
fortunately.with your gay life style...you dont have to worry about girls......
booo yaaaa
(not that theres anything wrong with that)
Hmmm ... I fondly remember kicking Princeton's butt all over the rugby pitch. They sure were ... pussies. After we crushed them in three games (A, B and C sides), they were whining, "gee, we praticied soooo much, how could this happen? Boo-hoo!!"
They couldn't drink like men either! And their songs were junky - not really rude!
Not real men!;-)
bears loving the lack of an uptick rule when they were pressing LEH under the fifty handle...only a 20% hit in 24 hours....it cuts both ways.
Beefers called it a week? This is getting boring. But what an exciting week!!!
the devil may be done Bud...as in GS done gutting beefers...the uptick rule kept them from taking them out.
Yes........GS front runs beefers........lmaooooooooooo
i thought GS was a beefer?
Calling it a week.
W pathetic.
Cheney dirtbag.
The trend is your friend.
I luv hillary!
Bye.
PS. Beefers rock!!!!
of course GS guts beefers. And GS is part beefer. Beefers can be carnivore and devour their own, like cannibals. Piranhas. Barracudas. Sharks.
early T time at the Club, Bud? lolol
They are mfl. But according to Bmans twisted logic.....they front run their beefer clients. Beefers eating beefers. Sort of like cannibals. Or elephants. Or pirhanas. Or some animal. Ask the Bman.
lmaoooooooooo
Lmaoooooooooo.....my post just like Bmans. I know exactly how he thinks. makes me sick.
PS.... yup ....golf....sport of the common man.
EBAY....very tempted to press my bet if it moves over yesterdays high.
hmmm until today a name for this Rich Man's Panic of 2007 might have been Fed FUBAR. But that's won't work anymore.
Maybe just Rich Man's Panic of 2007.
I'm glad some knowledge is seeping into our thick head, Bud. ;-))
Repetition is the Mother of Learning - it must work ... slowly.
Bunkerman...you should charging Bud for the education...you are a very patient teacher....angry young men, as they begin the transformation form liberal to conservative are tough nuts to crack...stay the course.
Bunk..How bout...
Goldilocks gets banged by the 3 Bears on her spec latifundium
lololol spin
Ecce Ursa!
lmaoooo frosty....
Thanks Bunkerman and gang..great weekend to you all
Bunkerman...good job this week...shaken' or stirred?
I thought Bud over the learning hump Frosty. Vick still young but Bud has no excuse. Cocktail hour enjoy all!!!!!
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