Friday early AM:
ECB adds about E84 billion more [I don't has a euro symbol!]
Washington Mutuals say it's having funding problems.
Countrywide says unprecedented liquidity problems - having to keep loans on its books.
Asian central banks injected cash. JCB adds $8.4B. Australia, too.
SEC is looking at the books of GS, MER, BSC to see if they are hiding subprime loans.
Babblevision hyping the setting of the LIBOR rate (!)
Euro banks need to convert the Euros to dollars - will Fed accommodate?
Fed funds trading at 6% early. Uh ... I thought 5.25% was the target rate? Fed asleep, I guess.
If WaMu and CFC can't sell the new loans they make, they will quickly shut down when they hit their funding limits.
WSJ story about a medium sized German bank funded investments in complex MBS with ... commercial paper. Sheesh! Wasn't that lesson learned in 1980?
Renaissance Technologies, a recently hyped quant beefer, says it's down 7.4% in 2007. Highbridge "Statistical Opportunities] fund [lolol!!!] quant fund say its down 16% for 2007.
Bernanke still playing Alfred E. Neuman, "What! Me worry?"
Hoover [aka Lyndon aka W] opposes temporary increase in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loan limits. Hoo-booy. What a dullard! How dumb is he?
Hmmm ... Hoover ... isn't that a frat guy in Animal House? A double fit!!!
Speaking of stupidity or sheer duplicity ... -> W griping about Congress spending. Uh, for 6 years he spend like a "drunken sailor" [to quote Ronald Reagan] when the R's were in control. A real porkmeister. Now he complaining, trying to make a political issue of it. Arghhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!
OK. Emotional transhumance* has occurred in front of us in markets. From the dominate emotion being greed, obviously it's intense immanent** fear. If you've been practicing time diversification, you have some cash. Wait for a sign of telic*** selling. Let the situation develop.
Patience, grasshopper.
PS: as you know, I practice what I preach. I did put some cash to work at great prices in index funds two weeks ago. And bought some big cap financials. That was half my extant cash to invest. I have more coming in after October 1 from other sources. So overall, I've put about 1/3 to work. If you've put half to work - good - now WAIT. If you haven't, you might put half in today or Monday. Don't buy any open. Wait until after 11AM or for the last 1/2 hour.
PPS: Barron's online is getting better & better. I just read a story that the Hulbert survey of newsletters shows only 5% bulls vs about 50% a few weeks ago. Hmmm. And the story says that in March 2000 - a real top - bulls actually increased after the first sell-off wave.
P^3S: LIBOR was set at 5.96%, up aboot 10 bps. more and about 70 bps over the overnight rate and way over the 30 day T-bill rate. Obviously Fed policy is waaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy too tight. Ben the Boob.
P^4S: This situation is why I keep a good bit of the Krypto Fund in bond-like investments, such as bond index funds, TIPs index funds and money market funds. I was at 20% and my recent shift put 5% into stocks. So I'm at 15%. I'll go to 10% at some point, but am waiting. When the market was moving up & up, I was adding to those bonds to keep the stock allocations in line. This re-balancing lets you make higher returns over time at lower risk.
Value Words ->
*I wrote about "transhumance" a few days ago.
**"Immanent" is a $10 word meaning all pervasive, indwelling.
***"Telic" is a $100 word meaning tending to an end.
[I learned "telic" yesterday PM and re-learned "immanent", so I'm trying to use them so I might actually remember them :-) ]
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58 comments:
the gmen paleaze! hank the tank wud be a gud addition to the QB spot.
eagles gonna deal mcnabb like the broncos were gonna keep maddox and trade elway in 91.
donny has rings in his future and thier with da birds!
phillies sux!
die mkt die!!!
hmmm mfl seeking telic selling now?
Bring on the End!!!
die market die!!!
Leave it to a supercilious eisegete to come to that conclusion mern.....he..he..he..right Bunkerman?.....lol
GO BIG BLUE!!!
I hope this is a nail in the coffin for black box & computer trading beefers.
lolol, you're good at that game, spin!
wierd VLO being up y'day. Maybe a beefer quant taking a huge short off?
too many hedge funds have no reagrd or understabding of true risk....they arent accountable for the losses...oh pity they will lose their jobs...what nonsense...they still walk away with their guarnateed fee in most cases...no offense bman, but just because someone went to Harvard doesnt mean they can manage money...lol...wow I have become anti-beefer...
No argument there, mfl. Harvard breeds many supercilious fools. They cultivate the mindset.
buy more coins Bunkerman!!! gold and silver....the time is now!!!!
Bunkerman...nice rant...if that fails to firm the tape...then I don't know what will.
Bub, can you follow up on Maverick's and my job applications with the swing shift manager at the car wash?
I've locked in good prices for more gold coins for Oct delivery, mfl.
I sold my AMSC by the way, taking y'days poparoo. That's almost a 3-bagger, long term gain.
Frosty must be trying to corner the nat gas mkt again...
Other central banks must be getting really angry with the Fed. US crap securities causing trouble in their countries and the Fed does nada.
Bud just birdied #5 and #6....now back to 1 over on the day....
I started a postion in DOW - a long term hold. The dividend is over 4% and the 12 year chart looks good to me. I'm at 1/3 now - will practice time diversification.
Trump attacking Ben the Boob now - pushing lower rates.
I suppose if the rich and powerful see a drop in their home/coop prices, maybe something would get done.
No one in DC cares about the common man - it's all rhetoric.
Bunkerman...you should start the death fund....first four ATK SWHC TASR LLL...killing never goes out of style.
Bman RTP and BHP have both pulled back a decent amount here...you looking for an add there, or have you trimmed some exposure? or have you done nothing? ty
florida....LMAOOO...perhaps Ben can sell it back to the indians for a bag a beads or trade it to castro for a box of cubans.
thanks mfl. I'm full on BHP, but could use some RTP. I haven't been watching to closely. I'll add to RTP here. Maybe more in a few days.
Trump actually gave good advice if one is in default on a subprime. Don't move out, go to the lender & make an restucturing offer, like a fixed rate at 6%, 30 years on a lower balance.
with a couple years of seasoning, the lender could sell that loan.
Offering to stay in a home at an 80% new balance, 6%, 30 years full amortizing vs. the lender taking a 50% hit on a foreclosure might tempt the special servicer.
Bunkerman...why 30 yr? why not 50 75 or 100 term....taking a smaller principle hit?
the big fixed rate mortgage market is a 30 yr nmarket. So for hope of an eventual sale, one has to stick to that. It's better to cut the rate to 5% than extend the term further. Or offer a bigger principal haircut.
the current lender needs "hope" to eventually cash out. So 5% 30 yrs on 75% balance is better than a longer term.
One should just offer a logical loan that has a payment that can be made without excess difficulty.
ASTM...taking some for some GERN and STEM pin action...wish Bud were here to see me buying the hildog rally.
Ben just dropped his third delivery. So three strikes you out heli boy.
The Fed is looking weak - Ben's not dealing well with the troubles.
21 over par....what a disater!
how did you do on the back nine?
shutup frsoty....lmaoooo
B'man...who do you dislike more? mr G or ben?
Volcker was a total disaster. Elmer - horrible. Ben - working to be as bad as Elmer.
Before this fiasco of weakness, and his error on not cutting rates, he was doing OK, excpet for this Maria tryst May 2006.
These ivory tower guys are just unable to listen & react.
Ben would do better to read this blog & do what I tell him :-)))
21 over? must have been a 40mph wind out there...
I do like them taking MBS as collateral for the repo - that's a bit innovative.
But I'd prefer an outright purchase to inject permanent reserves.
Of course, a rate cut to 4.5% would be best.
I'm noticing a trend B'man. You don't like any of them. They can't all be stupid. Perhaps you are wrong. Or maybe i am right. The fed chief not as powerful as you think. He's just there as a referee.
you have to putt with the wedge Bud?
They're not "stupid" all the time - just at some important times. The problem is they live in DC and have a government paycheck.
And they don't get political pressure as the congressional fools are always grandstanding insted of asking serious questions.
I just don't think they pay attention enough to real dauly facts. They get these briefing books full of ground up facts and miss reality.
They should be calling people and talking all the time.
I think they have collossal hubris in their "image" and are often living a group-think illusion.
And they have a banker's disdain for common people.
A rate cut Tuesday saying risk of inflation was reduced would eliminated this turmoil this week.
They are too tight - in fact they should never have raised from 5 to 5.25%. That last raise was an error, too, caused by trying to rebuild Ben's immage after his Maria tryst.
That banker interview was really interesting.
Banker's disdain for common people...lmaoooooooooooo
like Mr. Potter?
some recent big movers gettin pummeled today
BOOM LNN ELON
I've watched Fed fools screw up for over 30 years. Ihe cmmon man bears the brunt of their erros, I have no sympathy and little respect for them. It's not just he chairman - but most of the governors are either banker cretins or ivory tower fools, too.
Usually the head of the NY Fed is the only one with good market experience.
banker cretins....lmaoooooooo
a round of malted beverages for the bunker...send me the tab.
XLF held. If it holds Monday, that might signal a serios bounce.
News over the weekend can change all, though.
Seems like no sellers lower, for now. Or at least more real buyers.
Frosty, if it's Friday, it's Martini evening :-))
Bunkerman....sorry I forgot...I'll order up a roy rogers for Bud.
XLF over 35 would be a little bullish S&H, measuring to 38.
lolol I'm learning - I looked "roy rogers" up in the Urban Dictionary.
roflmao.
Frosty must have hired a new comedy writer. He's funny today. Lmaooooo
W is a disgrace.
Cheney is scum.
GOP trending lower.
Dems trending higher.
The trend is your friend.
Hillary is my sweetheart.
Bye.
PS. Drinking sucks!!!!
You MUST pay attention when something is so extremely volatile! Bush's people are on board this stock, if you follow the link on paragraph 4. Is the neocons responsible for this?
SWC is incredibly volatile! Hammered down half from the $16.47 high in just three months, Bottomed at the $8.03 on this Tudesday before the earnings conference call, immediately rallied HUGE next day to high of $11.04 and settle for a 20% gain at $10.40, flat on thursday, Rallied Friday moring to high of $10.84 and then plummeted to the low of $8.38!!! Such a stock with extremely narrow floats traded on huge volume and huge swings up and down. I bet you never saw anything like that!!!
It's a swing trader's PARADISE! I would guess most day traders would LOVE to see such volatility. Such huge daily swing creates huge profit potentials if you can do it right. The setup looks like a powerful double bottom setup.
This is an incredible stock worth paying attention to. Spend your weekend study it. Maybe you can swing trade and get a quick 20% out of it in one day! And tell people about this interesting stock.
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