I computed more accurate numbers on my Alpha Fund and it's gotten too large relative to my Krypto Fund due to the strong gains this year mentioned yesterday. I want to keep it at 25% of the Krypto Fund. So I have to sell some more stocks today to cut it back. I'm still very bullish - this is money management. If I let the Alpha Fund get too large, the swings it incurs as the market moves can get a "wee" bit scary [ hehe, using a little Scottish there ;-) ].
I looked at the groups in it and the oils have really moved up a lot and are now well overweight - they are 12%+ of the 25% even after the sales of Wednesday and I want them to be 10% of it. So I need to sell some big oils. I'll pick ones that I can get long term gain treatment for the partial sales. I still like them all, but money management discipline rules. I need to sell a wee bit of miners, too. I'll let half of my FCX go. I have long term gains (over 100%) on it and it's looking a wee bit extended, too. Babblevision pumped it, too, perhaps an omen of a pullback?
I gauged the inverse S&H pattern in the S&P 500 cash index that was confirmed yesterday: it measures to roughly 1600.
The drop in the dollar is going to punish nations that rely excessively on exports. All those nations need to develop more consumer demand and consumer-driven international trade. But one problem they have in places like Europe and China and Japan is demographics. All those nations are very "old" in the distribution of their populations. Old people just don't buy & use things like the young. China and Eastern Europe have lots of potential consumer growth, though, from the evolution from decades of suppressed demand from the communist past.
The futures are strong early AM. I don't see any news, so it might be option related or maybe the public continues to buy mutual funds.
ORCL reported strong earnings - the chart gave the correct picture. They usually do. I'm holding ORCL for a good while longer as these strong results play out.
PS: This big move in gold & silver has increased the value of my holdings in those so much I don't need to buy as much as I thought in October. So I'm selling half my gold futures and the silver futures I bought in the summer for good "sugar". Again, this is purely money management and keeping the asset allocations in my Krypto Fund correct (10% gold & silver - that's a lot).
PPS: I don't understand why people (other than perma-bears) can say the 30 year bond is showing more inflation risk or is a harbinger of disaster. The long term real rate of return on bonds is 3%. Year-over-year core inflation is about 2%. Higher mathematics shows that 2% + 3% = 5%. That's where the 30 year bond should be. There sure is a lot of babble on Babblevision lately.
P^3S: Sheesh ... these Babblevision talking heads are dumb. The reason the long bond yields are going up a bit is BECAUSE THE FED RATE CUT HELPS ELIMINATE RECESSION RISK. Recession risk is why the long term yields got so low. How stupid can they be! They don't even think before blabbing!
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46 comments:
good morning
PCLN,TTG...worth a shot
CMTL Farley finga
TTG I know several people who can pump that one for you Spin...add..add...add...add...add
lmao....Mr Hunt only wants stocks with gold or silver in em...fine
IAG.....giving finger and a double gappa????..lol
Well, Bunky's men over Merrill Lynch downgraded a lot of gold miners today...that would be fine, except he has been negative the enitre way up...he really is useless...they look ready for a pullback, especially since the monkeys on tv are starting to pump them....
Mern what the heck have you done to the Mets??? Die Phillies die!
Did that 9th inning make you spill your goose mfl??..lol
oh man...did it ever...
sheesh. I spent 25+ years in invetment banking - mostly structured debt and corporate finance. The level of information that Babblevision gives is just horrible. The talk about mortgages just now was about 25 years out of date. Ugh!
B'man do you still subscribe to that fancy weather newsletter?
Bunkerman...you are looking for the market to pull back, instead of an attack to a new high...won't that create a lower high, what do your tea leafs say about that...options hang over could be a real pain.
spiddy energy sector up 8 in a row for a little over 700bps...previously, such moves have resulted in a retreat by an avg of 170bps the following week...something virtual to think about...can't hurt that this is ops expo and a holiday...DUG is the powershares double darkside juice.
I still get it, mfl, but won't be renewing
I think the March to July move was a complete intermediate trem move, frosty. So a pullback here is not a lower high for the current trend.
Yes, I expect a pullback - maybe not large - before the new highs. The beefers have to hit this soon for some reason or other. One never knows thte extent of public buying, though. If rich people sick of poor beefer performance start just buying index funds, then the move might keep going.
The beefers might do the "sell Rosh, buy Yom" play, too.
No strong opinion actually. I'd like to see a dip in October to buy more BAC.
Bunkerman as a farmer, a common man, I know you are well aware of cycles and time analysis...can you address the fact that this current bull market is very very mature, as measured by previous bull moves of the last 100 yrs...thanks...
I see no comment about any hurricanes, but I think they split off the tropics part to try to raise prices. I did not subscribe to the new tropics service.
It looks like lots of hot weather still coming.
Biological metaphors applied to economics or any human endeavor are just metaphors. I'm reading a book about that general subject actually. An economic cycle occurs for a reason, not for any underlying "law of nature". The current housing down cycle occured because of overbuilding, which is a common cause of a business cycle downturn. Had another industry incurred similar overbuilding, then I think a deeper downturn would be likely. But it didn't. So I see this as a mid-cycle slowdown similar to 1984 when Volcker destroyed the rust belt & farm belt with the ultra strong dollar. Then the overall economy continued to grow.
I see this as a similar mid-cycle slowdown that will end early next year. Unless somethign else bad happens.
hehe, by the way, mfl, my male line ancestors were ... saloon keepers lololol
about half of my 32 great, great, great grandparents were in business of some kind, a few farmers and a few skilled workers (stone mason, tailor, etc.)
I don't see how the dollar vs. euro affects the common man at all. There buying is from places like China - pegged to dollar. The rich buy things from Europe, like wine & cheese hehehe.
Bunerkman...I come from a long line of drunks myself...we do have something in common beside our good looks.
DUGheffernan a taste 39.50...no rush...oh my god my tivo thinks I'm gay.
Bud football picks please
WEEK 3 is always upset week.....IM putting all my TTG profits on what would be the biggest upset of them all..THE.....NEW...YORK...GIANTS
for all you contrarians out there...ND is a 2 touchdown dog at home to Michigan St? I cant believe ND is this bad...now that every pundit has spent the week killing them relentlessly...ND wins outright...
Spin-em and MLF...little early to be hitting the kool aid....let's keep it simple and just fade Bud.
Bud seems to be boycotting the bunker...he won't give out his picks...
Bud in a funk as rudy pulls into a dead heat with the hildog...With W's crack economic team providing the juice going into 08' the odds of a vote the wallet result soars...he's not a good sport when he's going down in flames.
Bud shouldnt be allowed to write about "whiney cry babies" anymore
Although I guess ya cant be a whiny cry baby when youre suckin your thumb.....never-----mind
lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooo
Lmaoooo rudy. Is he the same pussy that got scared of hillary in 2000 and made some bullshit prostate cancer excuse.
Pick for the rest of the nfl season. Always bet against the sea-pigeons. Fuuuuuuuuummmmmmmmmmbbbbbbbblllllllllleeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!
long bengals
Bud...that was the smoke screen so he could get past putting the crazy bitch he married to the curb...hildog no match for the pit bull.
that just hurts...bastard.
Yankee fans gettin cocky again. Keep babblin spin.
die yankees die !!!!!!!!!!!
2008 Presidential Election: Giuliani slides further; volume on Thompson contracts picks up
The Giuliani contracts continue their trend downward, now trading at 16.0 vs 17.0 a week ago. Although the Thompson contracts moved little in terms of price from last week, now at 9.6 vs 9.1, their weekly volume was noticeably heavier. The Clinton contracts still lead all candidates, last trading at 43.0. The Obama and Romney contracts are little changed from last week, with Obama last trading at 8.1 and Romney at 9.1. The Gore contracts, more heavily traded than normal this week, are at 5.0 vs 4.4 on 14-Sep. The Edwards contracts last traded at 3.6, McCain 2.0, Paul 1.7, and Bloomberg 0.6. The rest of the candidate contracts changed little in terms of price action or volume vs a week ago. Political Party contracts continue to trade at the same price levels, with the Democratic party at 59.0, the Republicans at 40.0, and the Field at 1.0. If you would like to receive these Intrade updates as portfolio email alerts, enter INTRADE as a ticker symbol in your portfolio.
knew that would get smoke ya out
Bud...hidog contracts...now that is the fade I was looking for...that and a double down on the hawks over the bungels...many thanks.
Rofl 'smoke ya out' I'm right here bitch.
Bunkerman...the junk is flying off the shelfs today...you would think mern was back in the saddle cold calling the bule plate special...it all rolls down hill...those beefers that survived the rath of GS feeding the momo crowd their tax loss sales...the common man just can't win.
CRM...my old friend...pe of l,070...free of the 45 stike but running on fumes...those buy out rumors seem a little silly with that pe.
I heard that Janus guy saying he had positive inflows for the first timein six years. Maybe the beefer fad is over adn the rich will just buy index funds. That would be good.
Hmmm maybe my 1700 year end S&P 500 call is still alive.
Bunkerman...JNS would be a buy?
no opinion on that frosty. I was thinking in general re the market. JNS has a pretty high PE but good growth lately.
But I guess is the public does start buying funds again - and with interest rates low they might - JNS could move.
I'm dreaming of a fine martini,
Just like the one I had last week,
with ice cold gin,
vodka and lillet,
and a twist in an ice filled glass.
[imagine Bing Crosby crooning]
I wanna ROCK!!!
(imagine Twisted Sister)
lmaooooo
great to have the Bunkerman back....have a fantastic weekend guys
lmaooooooo twisted sister
i prefer autograph or def leppard
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